btvhopper wrote:

paysonmt77 wrote:

AA just announced MHT-ORD starts next summer 2019...

I think MHT has finally hit rock-bottom and will finally start coming back. Though I doubt it will ever get back to the mid-2000's glory days.

Time will tell, but I think this was just an airport that rode the WN bubble a bit too enthusiastically and become too dependent on WN, ultimately resulting in a market with monopolistic tendencies which slowly led to higher prices, and consumers that could find better options to the south.

The legacies are much better positioned now to compete with WN, as well as the new ULCC. It will be a slow process to rebuild, but I think they'll able to stop the bleeding to BOS and regain the market share they lost to PWM and BTV. Remember, it was't long ago that Southern Maine's and Central Vermont's default airport was MHT.

I'm sure there is some disappointment in those who worry about finances, but I not really sure what else they should have done. Sure, there was a bunch of fair weather sailing going on as the planning cycle for the "new" airport was going on, but I wouldn't call it the result a big overshoot. We have a nice airport with plenty of growth opportunities, plenty of cargo, defense and high tech businesses along side, room for more, and a nice new bridge that gives it great highway access. We should be well positioned for 20-30 years. It's not like we built a PIT and no one came. I don't see taxpayers picketing in protest.

chrisnh wrote:

Although people disagree with me (and their points are valid), BOS may reach a saturation point where being 'close' to Boston is seen as an advantage for MHT. Remember during the Big Dig, getting to Logan was a nightmare. That's what drew the growth at MHT. But thanks to the bus service to Logan from Manchester, Nashua, and Tyngsboro (which I've used, and it's good if your timings work), getting to Logan isn't the chore it used to be. And of course, the highways are much better now.

I think the points in #933 about it being a long time (a decade or more) before BOS saturation becomes an issue are pretty solid.

Novaboy2525 wrote:

What are the odds that this is the year (2019) that BDL finally lands a flight to Seattle on either AS or DL? Airport executive director Kevin Dillion seems to make it seem like the airport is pushing hard for it. Maybe a deal similar to what happened in PIT to lure AS there. BDL was my home airport growing up and I love to see it succeed and grow. Now that I live in Washington and work at SEA, I long for a direct flight where I wouldn't have to connect or have to fly in BOS or make the dreaded mistake of flying into JFK.
http://m.hartfordbusiness.com/article/2 ... es-in-2019

I think we will see a AS announcement at BDL before 2019 ends. Funny that JAX was listed in the article as a top destination not served from BDL; maybe B6 could hop on that with a E190? Surprised that BDL - Jamaica has not happened considering the large Caribbean community in Hartford and Springfield. Might be another opp for B6 or Spirit.

VS4ever wrote:

chrisnh wrote:

Although people disagree with me (and their points are valid), BOS may reach a saturation point where being 'close' to Boston is seen as an advantage for MHT. Remember during the Big Dig, getting to Logan was a nightmare. That's what drew the growth at MHT. But thanks to the bus service to Logan from Manchester, Nashua, and Tyngsboro (which I've used, and it's good if your timings work), getting to Logan isn't the chore it used to be. And of course, the highways are much better now.

However, Logan is filling up with flights to the point where it could be a good 45 minutes from pulling away from the gate to being airborne. That's 45 minutes planes wouldn't have to lose at MHT. Less fuel wasted, less time lost.

But Massport won't do MHT any favors. And why should they? The 'reliever' of choice for them is their very own Worcester.

So I do agree that for MHT, there's nowhere to go but up. Airlines need to start suffering some 'pain' down at Logan if they're going to come back to (or even enter) MHT. Time will tell whether Boston's abundant airline success will be a tipping point for nearby MHT. In the end, MHT had great success back in the early 2000s. I was on many full UA 757s to and from MHT, so it's not as though the potential of the place is in question.

I agree with most of what you are saying, but I want to push back on the 45 minute number. We are at 421,000 flights a year right now and the averages are running in the mid to high 20's so we are quite a way off hitting 45 with the worst being around 30-32 YTD and let's not forget, a lot of that is baked into the block time of the flight anyway, so I am not sure anyone would really see it as an issue. Most folks find as long as they get away from the gate on time and land around the time the airline tells them, how they get there in between is less of an issue, in fact the average arrival delay is 6 minutes, which tells you exactly what's going on and I bet if I fixed that around routes, a lot of that would be JFK, EWR, LGA and PHL based. (in fact i might try to look at that, if i have time), The average taxi time is in the high teens low 20's, but honestly if you have to go to the far end of 33L or 27, that's a long taxi to have to cross 4L, and 4R and head out there, so those numbers are never really going to come down too much.

You're right about the 45 minute thing...way overstated. You have the pulse of Logan, that's for sure! And you're right about taxi and hold times being 'baked in' to the schedules.

A pair of CRJ-700s each day/each way between MHT & ORD does not a 'rebound' make. But that route is a necessary one for people heading further west or down into Texas. I would hope it becomes an E190 route but I'm not sure whether AA runs those through ORD.

Revelation wrote:

Jouhou wrote:

Why do people keep discussing MHT getting international service? It's not going to. Manchester is not an existing port of entry like Portland and Portsmouth are. The federal government has proven stingy about hiring adequate CBP staff at existing ports of entry. The only reason why PSM is an international airport is because Portsmouth has a working port (the only one in NH) and can send CBP personnel to PSM easily as needed. Same deal with PWM but PSM makes for a better example that status as an existing port of entry is more important than the size and economic activity within the city a particular airport serves.

I agree with what you say about the CBP / FIS issues.

The point above was that MHT had the required population density, but IMHO didn't factor in the fact that most of that population is willing to suffer the drive to BOS to gain the lower fares that competition brings.

MHT really doesn't have much of a chance to gain international flights, especially as we see WOW retrench and don't see big successes in international flights to other similarly sized airports such as BDL and PVD.

I looked at Icelandair for my last TATL and decided going a long way out of my way just to change planes in the middle of the night wasn't worth the relatively small delta in price.

In short, my optimism for new TATL entrants is not as high as I thought it would be, but I do wish them luck, if for no other reason than to keep competitive pressure on the legacies.

MHT is not a similar sized market as BDL, the Hartford metro area is 3x the size of Manchester without included Springfield and BDL through September 2018 handled just under 5 millions passengers compared to MHT at 1.4 million. BDL is growing, MHT is not.

Also, Aer Lingus has committed to another 4 years of service at BDL and will serve close to 100,000 passengers in 2018 with summer loads over 90% most months. Far from not being successful. Norwegian should have never started service from BDL-EDI, that was set to fail before the flight started.

bdlflyer wrote:

Novaboy2525 wrote:

What are the odds that this is the year (2019) that BDL finally lands a flight to Seattle on either AS or DL? Airport executive director Kevin Dillion seems to make it seem like the airport is pushing hard for it. Maybe a deal similar to what happened in PIT to lure AS there. BDL was my home airport growing up and I love to see it succeed and grow. Now that I live in Washington and work at SEA, I long for a direct flight where I wouldn't have to connect or have to fly in BOS or make the dreaded mistake of flying into JFK.
http://m.hartfordbusiness.com/article/2 ... es-in-2019

I think we will see a AS announcement at BDL before 2019 ends. Funny that JAX was listed in the article as a top destination not served from BDL; maybe B6 could hop on that with a E190? Surprised that BDL - Jamaica has not happened considering the large Caribbean community in Hartford and Springfield. Might be another opp for B6 or Spirit.

I could see AS or DL start BDL-SEA, possibly giving an edge to DL with Asia connections and a decent NW route map that continues to grow along with DL being historically strong in BDL.

Also, Air Jamaica was scheduled to start flights from BDL in the late 90's but never got off the ground. I think B6 has the best chance adding Jamaica and possibly a second destination in Puerto Rico. Delta has been doing very well with BDL-CUN 1x weekly flight for a couple years now.

The biggest hole right now is definitely SEA followed by PIT, PHX, BNA, JAX, IND, MKE and an additional Caribbean destination.

uconn99 wrote:

bdlflyer wrote:

Novaboy2525 wrote:

What are the odds that this is the year (2019) that BDL finally lands a flight to Seattle on either AS or DL? Airport executive director Kevin Dillion seems to make it seem like the airport is pushing hard for it. Maybe a deal similar to what happened in PIT to lure AS there. BDL was my home airport growing up and I love to see it succeed and grow. Now that I live in Washington and work at SEA, I long for a direct flight where I wouldn't have to connect or have to fly in BOS or make the dreaded mistake of flying into JFK.
http://m.hartfordbusiness.com/article/2 ... es-in-2019

I think we will see a AS announcement at BDL before 2019 ends. Funny that JAX was listed in the article as a top destination not served from BDL; maybe B6 could hop on that with a E190? Surprised that BDL - Jamaica has not happened considering the large Caribbean community in Hartford and Springfield. Might be another opp for B6 or Spirit.

I could see AS or DL start BDL-SEA, possibly giving an edge to DL with Asia connections and a decent NW route map that continues to grow along with DL being historically strong in BDL.

Also, Air Jamaica was scheduled to start flights from BDL in the late 90's but never got off the ground. I think B6 has the best chance adding Jamaica and possibly a second destination in Puerto Rico. Delta has been doing very well with BDL-CUN 1x weekly flight for a couple years now.

The biggest hole right now is definitely SEA followed by PIT, PHX, BNA, JAX, IND, MKE and an additional Caribbean destination.

With the large Hispanic population in both Hartford and Springfield, service to Ponce PR would probably hold its own quite well....at least a few days a week. For Summer leisure service, a flight to Nantucket or Martha’s Vinyard would attract some attention.

uconn99 wrote:

Revelation wrote:

I agree with what you say about the CBP / FIS issues.

The point above was that MHT had the required population density, but IMHO didn't factor in the fact that most of that population is willing to suffer the drive to BOS to gain the lower fares that competition brings.

MHT really doesn't have much of a chance to gain international flights, especially as we see WOW retrench and don't see big successes in international flights to other similarly sized airports such as BDL and PVD.

I looked at Icelandair for my last TATL and decided going a long way out of my way just to change planes in the middle of the night wasn't worth the relatively small delta in price.

In short, my optimism for new TATL entrants is not as high as I thought it would be, but I do wish them luck, if for no other reason than to keep competitive pressure on the legacies.

MHT is not a similar sized market as BDL, the Hartford metro area is 3x the size of Manchester without included Springfield and BDL through September 2018 handled just under 5 millions passengers compared to MHT at 1.4 million. BDL is growing, MHT is not.

Also, Aer Lingus has committed to another 4 years of service at BDL and will serve close to 100,000 passengers in 2018 with summer loads over 90% most months. Far from not being successful. Norwegian should have never started service from BDL-EDI, that was set to fail before the flight started.

Thanks for the numbers, but I'm really not sure what you are point you're trying to make.

Your mention of BDL-DUB service is kind of making my point, that new entrants to the TATL market have been pretty disappointing.

We read:

The airline’s deal to extend its service at Bradley also includes provisions for financial guarantees should total revenue fall short of a predetermined target, but they are phased out in the last two years of the extension.

The original, two-year agreement with the state called for up to $4.5 million a year in subsidies. State officials said $4.5 million was paid to Aer Lingus in 2016-17, but the deal announced Thursday reduces the subsidy to up to $3.8 million in the second year, and it is limited to certain winter months.

The subsidy then drops to up to $3 million in the third year and up to $2 million in the fourth year. There are no guarantees in the fifth and sixth years of service. Subsidies for the four-year period cannot exceed $13.3 million.

The State Bond Commission next week will consider borrowing $8.8 million to fulfill the subsidy agreement with Aer Lingus.

In addition to the subsidies to cover revenue shortfalls, the Connecticut Airport Authority waived landing fees and provided marketing support for Aer Lingus totaling $5 million in the first two years of service.

Ref: https://www.courant.com/business/hc-aer ... story.html

It's pretty dire to be gifting EI millions of dollars just so BDL can say they have one TATL flight.

As markets go, DUB is pretty close to ideal. I grew up in CT (UConn grad, but long before 99!) and I know there's a lot of people in the area who say they're Irish (but I bet their DNA tests would say otherwise, because when I ask their parents and grandparents about their heritage I often get a more complicated story). Also the country has a generally positive image, mainly speaks the same language, is a relatively short flight, etc.

The real questions become where are the 2nd/3rd/4th... flights and what happens when no more subsidies are on offer?

Personally I think many would argue that $8M could have done more good at UConn or helping to pay for the redo of the mixmaster in Waterbury.

BDL - OCT 18 Update

Next up. BDL....
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B61t8 ... VRWdmc5SkE

Data still goes back to 2014 where appropriate.

Info:
Month
Highlight: October for BDL has grown each of the last 4 years from 500k in 2014 to 583k in 2018, which is 16.7% over the period and 2.1% from 17 to 18 (572k to 583K), Inbound grew 1.6% to 289K and Outbound grew 2.5% to 295K

Trends

AA - dropped 0.7% or around 1K and is about 1,400 lower than it's 2014 number, big switch from Republic to Mainline between 17 and 18 of 17K pax.
DL - dropped 2.5% or around 3K, taking them back to their 2014 number, uptick in Endeavor against Mainline flying.
International also dropped 9.4% due to the exit of Norwegian but EI posted 9.9% gains over the prior year, 16 more people found their way on to AC..
B6 - after a 10k lift in 2017, B6 reversed 7K of that in 2018 for a 9.6% drop, they are back to 2015 levels at this point.

On the upside:
UA - increased by 1.8% or 1,300 pax 17 to 18 and a whopping 84% over the past 4 years with a massive push away from regionals to mainline flying (149% increase) Mesa is really the only regional of any substance, although Go Jet is picking up the pace.
NK - almost doubled to 41.5K vs 20.9k pax as their expansion continues a pace

WN - increased by 2.3% or 2,800 pax, which reversed a previous trend downwards since 2014.

In terms of market share:
B6 slipped to #5 at the expense of UA, and trailed by 1.2% in the month.
AA is still #1, but their lead is reducing and although have a over WN, which next year could be overtaken if the trend were to be continued.

YTD

Highlight: October YTD for BDL has grown each of the last 4 years from 4.9m in 2014 to 5.5m in 2018 (13.4% increase), including a 3.7% uplift in 2017 to 2018 (185K). Inbound increased by 100k (3.7%) and Outbound by 97K (3.6%) for a total increase of 196K for YTD overall.

Trends:
AA - YTD AA are down less than 1% (11K), but they are 5.1% or 72K down since 2014 with little sign of that trend reversing.
DL - dropped 1.6% or around 17K, and while they are still 25K up since 2014, they are well down from their height of 2015.
International also dropped 5.6%, (8.2K) due to the exit of Norwegian (11.1K) and a 1.6% drop in EI (1.6k) against a 6.4% uptick in AC (3.1K), noting that October for EI was an increase, so we could see the YTD drop wiped out in November if the trend continues.

On the upside:
UA - increased by 9.6% or 56,000 pax 17 to 18 and a significant 57.4% increase over the past 4 years (234K) with growth (net 134% increase) coming from mainline flying from 199k to 466k during that period, with some net reduction in regional carriers.
NK - are up to close to 400K and will blast through that number when November is released and continue to maintain their close to 7% market share as a result.
B6 - are down year over year by 3.4% or 25K allowing UA to close the gap, but there is still 55K gap at this point, that said since 2014 pax have grown by 22%.
WN - WN continue to reverse and are down YTD by 4.6% (62,000), there is little danger to their current position, but the direction is definitely down with a 10% decrease since 2014. (143K)

In terms of market share:
YTD, the only big mover was WN that lost it's #1 position to AA and is now behind by 1.2% share of all pax, although with AA also decreasing, its own share has reduced to just over 24%. Spirit as noted above has taken a 7% share, and UA has increased by 0.6% at the expense of the others.

Rolling
Rolling 12 months at the end of October is 6.6m pax which is 3.8% up on this time last year (241K up), end of year is still looking at just a touch under 6.7m for the year, which compares to 6.4m in 2017 and under 5.9m in 2014, I don't see anything major that's going to change that at this point. It's interesting to note that inbound and outbound are increasing at about the same rate, which would be right given the O&D nature of the airport

Estimates for Pax Counts for Year End 2018

AA - 1.6m (continued losses in Nov/Dec)
DL - 1.25m
UA - 775k
B6 - 830k
NK- 500K
WN - 1.55m
Int - 150K

Approx guess: 6.65m

As ever, any questions, let me know.

VS4ever wrote:

BDL - OCT 18 Update

Next up. BDL....
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B61t8 ... VRWdmc5SkE

Data still goes back to 2014 where appropriate.

Info:
Month
Highlight: October for BDL has grown each of the last 4 years from 500k in 2014 to 583k in 2018, which is 16.7% over the period and 2.1% from 17 to 18 (572k to 583K), Inbound grew 1.6% to 289K and Outbound grew 2.5% to 295K

Trends

AA - dropped 0.7% or around 1K and is about 1,400 lower than it's 2014 number, big switch from Republic to Mainline between 17 and 18 of 17K pax.
DL - dropped 2.5% or around 3K, taking them back to their 2014 number, uptick in Endeavor against Mainline flying.
International also dropped 9.4% due to the exit of Norwegian but EI posted 9.9% gains over the prior year, 16 more people found their way on to AC..
B6 - after a 10k lift in 2017, B6 reversed 7K of that in 2018 for a 9.6% drop, they are back to 2015 levels at this point.

On the upside:
UA - increased by 1.8% or 1,300 pax 17 to 18 and a whopping 84% over the past 4 years with a massive push away from regionals to mainline flying (149% increase) Mesa is really the only regional of any substance, although Go Jet is picking up the pace.
NK - almost doubled to 41.5K vs 20.9k pax as their expansion continues a pace

WN - increased by 2.3% or 2,800 pax, which reversed a previous trend downwards since 2014.

In terms of market share:
B6 slipped to #5 at the expense of UA, and trailed by 1.2% in the month.
AA is still #1, but their lead is reducing and although have a over WN, which next year could be overtaken if the trend were to be continued.

YTD

Highlight: October YTD for BDL has grown each of the last 4 years from 4.9m in 2014 to 5.5m in 2018 (13.4% increase), including a 3.7% uplift in 2017 to 2018 (185K). Inbound increased by 100k (3.7%) and Outbound by 97K (3.6%) for a total increase of 196K for YTD overall.

Trends:
AA - YTD AA are down less than 1% (11K), but they are 5.1% or 72K down since 2014 with little sign of that trend reversing.
DL - dropped 1.6% or around 17K, and while they are still 25K up since 2014, they are well down from their height of 2015.
International also dropped 5.6%, (8.2K) due to the exit of Norwegian (11.1K) and a 1.6% drop in EI (1.6k) against a 6.4% uptick in AC (3.1K), noting that October for EI was an increase, so we could see the YTD drop wiped out in November if the trend continues.

On the upside:
UA - increased by 9.6% or 56,000 pax 17 to 18 and a significant 57.4% increase over the past 4 years (234K) with growth (net 134% increase) coming from mainline flying from 199k to 466k during that period, with some net reduction in regional carriers.
NK - are up to close to 400K and will blast through that number when November is released and continue to maintain their close to 7% market share as a result.
B6 - are down year over year by 3.4% or 25K allowing UA to close the gap, but there is still 55K gap at this point, that said since 2014 pax have grown by 22%.
WN - WN continue to reverse and are down YTD by 4.6% (62,000), there is little danger to their current position, but the direction is definitely down with a 10% decrease since 2014. (143K)

In terms of market share:
YTD, the only big mover was WN that lost it's #1 position to AA and is now behind by 1.2% share of all pax, although with AA also decreasing, its own share has reduced to just over 24%. Spirit as noted above has taken a 7% share, and UA has increased by 0.6% at the expense of the others.

Rolling
Rolling 12 months at the end of October is 6.6m pax which is 3.8% up on this time last year (241K up), end of year is still looking at just a touch under 6.7m for the year, which compares to 6.4m in 2017 and under 5.9m in 2014, I don't see anything major that's going to change that at this point. It's interesting to note that inbound and outbound are increasing at about the same rate, which would be right given the O&D nature of the airport

Estimates for Pax Counts for Year End 2018

AA - 1.6m (continued losses in Nov/Dec)
DL - 1.25m
UA - 775k
B6 - 830k
NK- 500K
WN - 1.55m
Int - 150K

Approx guess: 6.65m

As ever, any questions, let me know.

Thanks for the analysis.

Has Frontier already cut DEN-PWM and PWM-RDU? I haven't seen it for more than a month while monitoring PWM activity on Flightaware

pwm2txlhopper wrote:

Has Frontier already cut DEN-PWM and PWM-RDU? I haven't seen it for more than a month while monitoring PWM activity on Flightaware

Most likely seasonal. Same with PVD is seasonal.

PVDspotting wrote:

pwm2txlhopper wrote:

Has Frontier already cut DEN-PWM and PWM-RDU? I haven't seen it for more than a month while monitoring PWM activity on Flightaware

Most likely seasonal. Same with PVD is seasonal.

Yep, seasonal. Both DEN-PWM and PWM-RDU are due to resume on May 1.

F9LASDEN wrote:

PVDspotting wrote:

pwm2txlhopper wrote:

Has Frontier already cut DEN-PWM and PWM-RDU? I haven't seen it for more than a month while monitoring PWM activity on Flightaware

Most likely seasonal. Same with PVD is seasonal.

Yep, seasonal. Both DEN-PWM and PWM-RDU are due to resume on May 1.

Somehow I missed that detail when service commenced. Thank you!

I guess Frontier intended this flight to be more for leisure travel to Maine, during Maine's peak season, as opposed to Maine originating passengers heading west? Seems like there would be more leIsure/LCC PWM originating traffic to DEN during PWM's winter offseason, when people head west for Skiing. I'm sure people go to vacation in Denver during summer, too. But I don't think as many people fly to DEN from PWM during Portland's peak season. Most New Englanders stay home during the nicer months and vacation during the colder months.

It would be interesting to see a breakdown of PWM traffic OD numbers based on the season. Even though passengers numbers are higher in the peak season, are higher numbers of people with Maine residency departing during the winter, or the summer?

pwm2txlhopper wrote:

F9LASDEN wrote:

PVDspotting wrote:

Most likely seasonal. Same with PVD is seasonal.

Yep, seasonal. Both DEN-PWM and PWM-RDU are due to resume on May 1.

Somehow I missed that detail when service commenced. Thank you!

I guess Frontier intended this flight to be more for leisure travel to Maine, during Maine's peak season, as opposed to Maine originating passengers heading west? Seems like there would be more leIsure/LCC PWM originating traffic to DEN during PWM's winter offseason, when people head west for Skiing. I'm sure people go to vacation in Denver during summer, too. But I don't think as many people fly to DEN from PWM during Portland's peak season. Most New Englanders stay home during the nicer months and vacation during the colder months.

Well you can still get there a couple of times a week, but via a 1 stop and it's a fun routing. DEN-MCO-PWM , one version isn't even a plane change.. leave at 7am (ish) DEN time and get to PWM at 4.30pm.

VS4ever wrote:

pwm2txlhopper wrote:

F9LASDEN wrote:

Yep, seasonal. Both DEN-PWM and PWM-RDU are due to resume on May 1.

Somehow I missed that detail when service commenced. Thank you!

I guess Frontier intended this flight to be more for leisure travel to Maine, during Maine's peak season, as opposed to Maine originating passengers heading west? Seems like there would be more leIsure/LCC PWM originating traffic to DEN during PWM's winter offseason, when people head west for Skiing. I'm sure people go to vacation in Denver during summer, too. But I don't think as many people fly to DEN from PWM during Portland's peak season. Most New Englanders stay home during the nicer months and vacation during the colder months.

Well you can still get there a couple of times a week, but via a 1 stop and it's a fun routing. DEN-MCO-PWM , one version isn't even a plane change.. leave at 7am (ish) DEN time and get to PWM at 4.30pm.

I just tried the MCO connection to PWM from LAS for the hell of it and because I wanted to try Frontier. It seems out of the way, but total travel time was only two hours longer than had I connected in ATL, DTW or BWI, as I usually do coming back east. Was still quicker than flying to BOS and taking ground transport home, like a lot of people insist on.

Even a 1,000 mile detour in minimal when you're doing 500 plus knots.

pwm2txlhopper wrote:

VS4ever wrote:

pwm2txlhopper wrote:

Somehow I missed that detail when service commenced. Thank you!

I guess Frontier intended this flight to be more for leisure travel to Maine, during Maine's peak season, as opposed to Maine originating passengers heading west? Seems like there would be more leIsure/LCC PWM originating traffic to DEN during PWM's winter offseason, when people head west for Skiing. I'm sure people go to vacation in Denver during summer, too. But I don't think as many people fly to DEN from PWM during Portland's peak season. Most New Englanders stay home during the nicer months and vacation during the colder months.

Well you can still get there a couple of times a week, but via a 1 stop and it's a fun routing. DEN-MCO-PWM , one version isn't even a plane change.. leave at 7am (ish) DEN time and get to PWM at 4.30pm.

I just tried the MCO connection to PWM from LAS for the hell of it and because I wanted to try Frontier. It seems out of the way, but total travel time was only two hours longer than had I connected in ATL, DTW or BWI, as I usually do coming back east. Was still quicker than flying to BOS and taking ground transport home, like a lot of people insist on.

Even a 1,000 mile detour in minimal when you're doing 500 plus knots.

I hear you, earlier this year I did BOS-MSP-AUS and it wasn't that bad, coming from the UK, 1,000 miles is the length of the entire country from tip to toe, so making that as a diversion, just sounds plain wierd, because well, it just does... here I grant you, it doesn't seem so bad. As I said, my trip to MSP was fine, i ended up getting there around 5 hours later than i had originally planned due to the connection time in MSP, so could have been better, but it worked and i got there on time, so there is that.

pwm2txlhopper wrote:

F9LASDEN wrote:

PVDspotting wrote:

Most likely seasonal. Same with PVD is seasonal.

Yep, seasonal. Both DEN-PWM and PWM-RDU are due to resume on May 1.

Somehow I missed that detail when service commenced. Thank you!

I guess Frontier intended this flight to be more for leisure travel to Maine, during Maine's peak season, as opposed to Maine originating passengers heading west? Seems like there would be more leIsure/LCC PWM originating traffic to DEN during PWM's winter offseason, when people head west for Skiing. I'm sure people go to vacation in Denver during summer, too. But I don't think as many people fly to DEN from PWM during Portland's peak season. Most New Englanders stay home during the nicer months and vacation during the colder months.

It would be interesting to see a breakdown of PWM traffic OD numbers based on the season. Even though passengers numbers are higher in the peak season, are higher numbers of people with Maine residency departing during the winter, or the summer?

Denver would make a good to excellent gateway to lots of summer tourism/recreation spots in the Rockies.

Seems G4 is eyeing HVN. All dependant on the runway extension of course.

https://www.nhregister.com/news/article ... 462174.php

Latest T-100's through September for the region and June for CT/RI internationals.

Any questions, let me know..
https://drive.google.com/open?id=15G6hi ... geDQ6VPDuq

New route starting in HVN (New Haven, CT) this weekend! First ever non stop service to Charlotte on American Eagle PSA CRJ-200.

Its only a once weekly Sat service with some not-so-great timing (the inbound connection leaves CLT at 7:55a, unfortunately. Return outta HVN back to CLT is around 11;30a.

Many feel this is an experiment to see not only how well a HVNCLT route does, but how the CRJ-200 doe on a longer route like this out of HVN's troublesome short runway.

Either way, its a start … not a huge one, but its the first new route we have had in years. We can only hope the AA service in HVN grows .. this is an encouraging little development here.

Little-noticed upgrade for Southwest at MHT is way more 737-800s than -700s these days. So while the number of flights isn’t going up, the number of seats is.

F9 announces service from BDL to DEN today. A return of F9 to Bradley......

pwm2txlhopper wrote:

F9LASDEN wrote:

PVDspotting wrote:

Most likely seasonal. Same with PVD is seasonal.

Yep, seasonal. Both DEN-PWM and PWM-RDU are due to resume on May 1.

Somehow I missed that detail when service commenced. Thank you!

I guess Frontier intended this flight to be more for leisure travel to Maine, during Maine's peak season, as opposed to Maine originating passengers heading west? Seems like there would be more leIsure/LCC PWM originating traffic to DEN during PWM's winter offseason, when people head west for Skiing. I'm sure people go to vacation in Denver during summer, too. But I don't think as many people fly to DEN from PWM during Portland's peak season. Most New Englanders stay home during the nicer months and vacation during the colder months.

It would be interesting to see a breakdown of PWM traffic OD numbers based on the season. Even though passengers numbers are higher in the peak season, are higher numbers of people with Maine residency departing during the winter, or the summer?

I think the reason F9 has found so much success at PWM is because they get a solid mix of leisure travelers going to Maine and Mainers doing the opposite. It seems like their new Florida routes are doing quite well (I flew PWM - TPA last week and the flight was completely full) and those flights are clearly geared towards Mainers escaping South.

paysonmt77 wrote:

F9 announces service from BDL to DEN today. A return of F9 to Bradley......

Frontiers expansion in New England has been remarkable. Since 2016 they've added PVD, PWM, PSM, BTV and now BDL. The question is if / when they will ever enter BOS. I think ORH night I also be a good candidate for F9 service.

Fex180 wrote:

paysonmt77 wrote:

F9 announces service from BDL to DEN today. A return of F9 to Bradley......

Frontiers expansion in New England has been remarkable. Since 2016 they've added PVD, PWM, PSM, BTV and now BDL. The question is if / when they will ever enter BOS. I think ORH night I also be a good candidate for F9 service.

I don't think they will come to BOS, never say never and all of that, but they seem in New England to be working around the edges. I do agree about ORH with some 2 or 3x weekly flights might work, i've also thought ORH might be a good G4 candidate too. Bear in mind that Massport is completing the project to have 4 jetways next year, AA and B6 have 1 and 2, DL will likely take #3, which means #4 could be available for common use, which would then allow the likes of F9, NK and G4 to dive in as I very much doubt UA are going to be interested in it. So maybe late 19 we might get some signals about 2020 flights out of ORH, given the financial performance, Massport needs all the flights it can out of ORH to limit the the outflows as much as possible.

Fex180 wrote:

Frontiers expansion in New England has been remarkable. Since 2016 they've added PVD, PWM, PSM, BTV and now BDL. The question is if / when they will ever enter BOS. I think ORH night I also be a good candidate for F9 service.

They have been in BOS and left but that was back when their model was to run everything thru the DEN hub. I'm not sure that there is room for another low cost, P2P carrier at BOS. However there is a huge gap inside the triangle that is PSM-PVD-BDL. Could they go to ORH? ORH to where? Is there room for 2 airlines flying ORH-Florida at bottom fares?

airbazar wrote:

Fex180 wrote:

Frontiers expansion in New England has been remarkable. Since 2016 they've added PVD, PWM, PSM, BTV and now BDL. The question is if / when they will ever enter BOS. I think ORH night I also be a good candidate for F9 service.

They have been in BOS and left but that was back when their model was to run everything thru the DEN hub. I'm not sure that there is room for another low cost, P2P carrier at BOS. However there is a huge gap inside the triangle that is PSM-PVD-BDL. Could they go to ORH? ORH to where? Is there room for 2 airlines flying ORH-Florida at bottom fares?

My crystal ball says... ORH-DEN...ORH-RDU ORH-ATL (just to annoy DL with their DTW), ORH-LAS and of course that hotbed of O&D ORH-MSO (i'm kidding about the last one), lots of connection options in DEN for them, we could say 3x weekly... hmmm, wonder where they just started doing that...

F27500 wrote:

New route starting in HVN (New Haven, CT) this weekend! First ever non stop service to Charlotte on American Eagle PSA CRJ-200.

Its only a once weekly Sat service with some not-so-great timing (the inbound connection leaves CLT at 7:55a, unfortunately. Return outta HVN back to CLT is around 11;30a.

Many feel this is an experiment to see not only how well a HVNCLT route does, but how the CRJ-200 doe on a longer route like this out of HVN's troublesome short runway.

Either way, its a start … not a huge one, but its the first new route we have had in years. We can only hope the AA service in HVN grows .. this is an encouraging little development here.

Bookings are very strong for these HVN-CLT flights, I expect AA to go to daily flights. HVN's future apart from the runway issue which has been heard in the appeals court, is larger RJ's such as the CRJ-700 and E170's and 175's, these aircraft are much better off short runways than the CRJ-200's. HHH will soon have service to EWR, ORD and IAD from UA and AA along with its CLT service will add servce to DCA. All this off a 5000 foot runway with displaced thresholds at both ends, 397 and 403 feet. The runway slope angles are almost the same as HVN, but HVN has a 5600 foot runway. HHH also has to deal with hotter temps during the summer months. With AA doing very well at HVN and growing, I expect DL and UA to start service, the market is too large for these majors to ignore.

Has any heard how things are going at PSM with Frontier? PSM has not changed their website showing F9 just everything on the website shows Allegiant where is the love for F9? Do they think service is going to be short lived at PSM just like skybus? Just weird about their website...is it run by allegiant? LOL

VS4ever wrote:

and of course that hotbed of O&D ORH-MSO

Hey! My boss is located at our facility in Missoula!

paysonmt77 wrote:

Has any heard how things are going at PSM with Frontier? PSM has not changed their website showing F9 just everything on the website shows Allegiant where is the love for F9? Do they think service is going to be short lived at PSM just like skybus? Just weird about their website...is it run by allegiant? LOL

They aren't alone. SCK hasn't changed there's for their new UA service yet, there's a G4 conspiracy i tell you...

chrisnh wrote:

VS4ever wrote:

and of course that hotbed of O&D ORH-MSO

Hey! My boss is located at our facility in Missoula!

Then if you can get around 150 people flying back and forth around 3x weekly... you might have a shot at it.. if you want to drive down to ORH that is.

paysonmt77 wrote:

Has any heard how things are going at PSM with Frontier? PSM has not changed their website showing F9 just everything on the website shows Allegiant where is the love for F9? Do they think service is going to be short lived at PSM just like skybus? Just weird about their website...is it run by allegiant? LOL

Well PSM - ATL was canned before it even began, I think it was only bookable for about 2 weeks so I don't know what the deal was with that.

I don't think PSM will ever become a significant station for F9, i.e , they will never get flights to DEN / RDU / ATL ect. Portsmouth will just be a launching point for flights to Florida, and service will be scheduled in such a way as to not pull passengers from PWM, which is a much more lucrative market for Frontier.

paysonmt77 wrote:

Has any heard how things are going at PSM with Frontier? PSM has not changed their website showing F9 just everything on the website shows Allegiant where is the love for F9? Do they think service is going to be short lived at PSM just like skybus? Just weird about their website...is it run by allegiant? LOL

Its only been two weeks since service started to MCO. A little too early to know how things are going, probably?

Fex180 wrote:

paysonmt77 wrote:

Has any heard how things are going at PSM with Frontier? PSM has not changed their website showing F9 just everything on the website shows Allegiant where is the love for F9? Do they think service is going to be short lived at PSM just like skybus? Just weird about their website...is it run by allegiant? LOL

Well PSM - ATL was canned before it even began, I think it was only bookable for about 2 weeks so I don't know what the deal was with that.

I don't think PSM will ever become a significant station for F9, i.e , they will never get flights to DEN / RDU / ATL ect. Portsmouth will just be a launching point for flights to Florida, and service will be scheduled in such a way as to not pull passengers from PWM, which is a much more lucrative market for Frontier.

PSM-ATL was not a route they ever announced. I believe the ATL booking option was a connection through MCO.

The press release (linked below) announcing their entrance to PSM makes no mention of a PSM-ATL nonstop route:
https://news.flyfrontier.com/frontier-a ... ew-routes/

Just as the press release doesn’t mention a PSM-ATL route, local news coverage announcing F9’s entrance into PSM mention only PSM-MCO, not PSM-ATL:
https://www.wcax.com/content/news/Front ... 90231.html
http://www.seacoastonline.com/news/2018 ... from-pease
https://www.fosters.com/news/20180916/p ... h-frontier

cheapgreek wrote:

F27500 wrote:

New route starting in HVN (New Haven, CT) this weekend! First ever non stop service to Charlotte on American Eagle PSA CRJ-200.

Its only a once weekly Sat service with some not-so-great timing (the inbound connection leaves CLT at 7:55a, unfortunately. Return outta HVN back to CLT is around 11;30a.

Many feel this is an experiment to see not only how well a HVNCLT route does, but how the CRJ-200 doe on a longer route like this out of HVN's troublesome short runway.

Either way, its a start … not a huge one, but its the first new route we have had in years. We can only hope the AA service in HVN grows .. this is an encouraging little development here.

Bookings are very strong for these HVN-CLT flights, I expect AA to go to daily flights. HVN's future apart from the runway issue which has been heard in the appeals court, is larger RJ's such as the CRJ-700 and E170's and 175's, these aircraft are much better off short runways than the CRJ-200's. HHH will soon have service to EWR, ORD and IAD from UA and AA along with its CLT service will add servce to DCA. All this off a 5000 foot runway with displaced thresholds at both ends, 397 and 403 feet. The runway slope angles are almost the same as HVN, but HVN has a 5600 foot runway. HHH also has to deal with hotter temps during the summer months. With AA doing very well at HVN and growing, I expect DL and UA to start service, the market is too large for these majors to ignore.

Can you post a source showing strong bookings for HVN-CLT?

F27500 wrote:

New route starting in HVN (New Haven, CT) this weekend! First ever non stop service to Charlotte on American Eagle PSA CRJ-200.

Its only a once weekly Sat service with some not-so-great timing (the inbound connection leaves CLT at 7:55a, unfortunately. Return outta HVN back to CLT is around 11;30a.

Many feel this is an experiment to see not only how well a HVNCLT route does, but how the CRJ-200 doe on a longer route like this out of HVN's troublesome short runway.

Either way, its a start … not a huge one, but its the first new route we have had in years. We can only hope the AA service in HVN grows .. this is an encouraging little development here.

I'm still really unclear as to how that route is supposed to work with that departure time out of CLT. There's very, very few flights that could connect to the flight to HVN, and none of the flights that really make sense for Saturday-only service (i.e. sun destinations).

uconn99 wrote:

cheapgreek wrote:

F27500 wrote:

New route starting in HVN (New Haven, CT) this weekend! First ever non stop service to Charlotte on American Eagle PSA CRJ-200.

Its only a once weekly Sat service with some not-so-great timing (the inbound connection leaves CLT at 7:55a, unfortunately. Return outta HVN back to CLT is around 11;30a.

Many feel this is an experiment to see not only how well a HVNCLT route does, but how the CRJ-200 doe on a longer route like this out of HVN's troublesome short runway.

Either way, its a start … not a huge one, but its the first new route we have had in years. We can only hope the AA service in HVN grows .. this is an encouraging little development here.

Bookings are very strong for these HVN-CLT flights, I expect AA to go to daily flights. HVN's future apart from the runway issue which has been heard in the appeals court, is larger RJ's such as the CRJ-700 and E170's and 175's, these aircraft are much better off short runways than the CRJ-200's. HHH will soon have service to EWR, ORD and IAD from UA and AA along with its CLT service will add servce to DCA. All this off a 5000 foot runway with displaced thresholds at both ends, 397 and 403 feet. The runway slope angles are almost the same as HVN, but HVN has a 5600 foot runway. HHH also has to deal with hotter temps during the summer months. With AA doing very well at HVN and growing, I expect DL and UA to start service, the market is too large for these majors to ignore.

Can you post a source showing strong bookings for HVN-CLT?

As an AA retiree, I can check loads when listing for a non-rev flight. CLT-HVN 12-19-2018 update 12-22-2018 CLT-HVN 46 seats, HVN-CLT 50 seats, 12-29-2018 CLT-HVN 45 seats, HVN-CLT 45 seats.
It stands to reason that with HVN in the middle of a large population base, it has a ready made market to draw from. The problem for years has been the 5600 foot runway and what has made the runway less than optimum was the obstructions, trees, utility lines that over the years caused aircraft to reduce the take off distance below 5600 feet. When NW twice tried to start HVN-DTW service first with a DC-9 and then a CRJ-200, it was reported that at times takeoffs on runway 2 could only factor 4700 feet which would allow only 47 passengers on the DC-9. The appeal court case regarding paving part of the overruns has been heard and the decision should be forthcoming. I am hoping HVN wins this and finally the runway issue can be settled and the airport can become the airport of choice for the metro New Haven area. Its long overdue. Another plus for HVN is that the first generation RJ's, CRJ-200's and ERJ-145's are getting older and many more CRJ-700's and E175's, both better off short runways are being added to the fleets of the majors. The CLT flights should become a daily one soon.

MHT for NOVEMBER (yes they released 2 months at once)
https://drive.google.com/open?id=19v-Fd ... QvUMzlAqjN

Same rules apply here as to the others, data goes back to 2013.

Info:
Month
Lowlight: (There are really no highlights here), Down 13K year over year at 149K, Outbound down 7.6%, Inbound down 8.7%. All numbers are red, no black numbers anywhere showing increases.

Trends

AA - was actually the best with just a 1.7% reduction and 649 pax overall. ironically they are 6.6% up from 2013, but that's just smoke and mirrors at this point
DL down by 14% and 3,300 pax, inbound was worse at a 15.1% reduction. 25% down since 2013
UA was down by 51% (over 6,400 pax) and 66% down since 2013.
WN also down by over 3.4% and 3,000 pax and 13% down since 2013 when they shipped 13,000 more customers back and forth.

In terms of market share:
No Movement Year over Year. WN still reigns at over 57% and is actually up, due to the reductions elsewhere by about 2% from 2013, AA cemented their 2nd spot with a 1.7% increase in share, but again that's less about them increasing and more about the others declining to be honest. .


Cargo
Cargo at MHT has actually been increasing since 2013, this year increased by 224K lbs or 1.4%, and is up 23.6% since 2013 with 3m, I believe i had an error in my previous report, which i have now correct to give these numbers.


YTD
Highlight: November YTD for MHT is still a mess, but still dropped by 111,000 pax and 6.1%, but alarmingly as we have repeatedly noted MHT is 24% down since 2013 with a huge drop of 530,000, 1/2 a million freaking people LESS flying through your airport a year...

Trends:
AA - the single bright spot, they have grown 7.3% this year to the tune of 29,000 and 10% increase vs 2013, clearly folks like what they are doing, but they are starting to drop too..

DL down 6.4% for the year 16,200 pax lower and nearly 83,000 fewer since 2013 for a 25.8% reduction,

UA - what a mess. 16.9% down YOY for a reduction of 22,500 pax only tells part of the 53% reduction since 2013 with nearly 123K less flying with them..
WN - biggest player, biggest drops 10% YOY and 103,000, but a whopping 365K reduction since 2013 for 28%, just terrible.


In terms of market share:
WN still #1, but has given up over 3.4% market share over time, 2.3% of that in the last year alone to the benefit of AA who have grown from 17% to 25% over the same time. DL have maintained and UA have also dropped by nearly 4%.

Cargo
Cargo has seen an 10.4% YTD increase over 2017 from 150.7 to 166.4m lbs. UPS with 12.78% increase and 10.4m was the biggest shaker and is up 20% over 2013 (15m lbs) FX also increased by 5.1m, and is now 1m lbs or 1.4% up from 13 levels.
Wiggins is also on an upward trend with 144k lbs and 2.7% YOY, but is still down from 2013, by roughly 380,000 lbs or 6.5%.
Even WN is rolling along with cargo, 16,5% increase YOY and 95% up since 2013, which considering the flying reduction is some going and i am sure is offsetting the revenue reductions from the pax side.

Rolling
Rolling 12 months at the end of November is now under 1.9m and is heading downwards towards 1.8m having been 2.1m in the Dec 13-Nov 14 period, freight is up 15m lbs and if that continues, will be very close to 200m lbs this time next year, current level is 187m and i only expect freight to increase and pax to decrease unless there is a huge change in fortunes.

As ever, any questions, let me know.

Kind of sad situation that WN reduced service, but increased market share! The others reduced by so much more, they increased.

BTV fares and BOS fares are so much lower. They have to get airfares down to be competitive. Being in the middle of significantly cheaper markets means they really only appeal to the closest people. What can they do to get fares down? Get a new airline like B6 might really help the prices go down. Won't come cheap i bet they would need to offer a really nice incentive, but could be worth it?

pwm2txlhopper wrote:

I guess Frontier intended this flight to be more for leisure travel to Maine, during Maine's peak season, as opposed to Maine originating passengers heading west? Seems like there would be more leIsure/LCC PWM originating traffic to DEN during PWM's winter offseason, when people head west for Skiing. I'm sure people go to vacation in Denver during summer, too. But I don't think as many people fly to DEN from PWM during Portland's peak season. Most New Englanders stay home during the nicer months and vacation during the colder months.

Personally, given the destinations, I think that most F9 service at PWM would be planned and operated based upon the number of people coming to Maine rather than Mainers heading elsewhere. As a Maine native I sometimes tend to look at things with a Maine-centric point of view, but MCO, DEN, and even RDU are much larger cities with bigger metro areas and catchment areas so I think F9 is more interested in the behavior of those markets rather than Portland’s. This isn’t to say that Maine-originating demand isn’t important – it absolutely is – but I would imagine that a majority of passengers flying in and out of PWM on F9 are not from Maine. (Of course, by the same logic of the larger of the two airports having the majority of the traffic, one could say that there are more people from EWR than PQI on then flights between the two cities, but – in addition to being an EAS service primarily
to benefit its own residents, Presque Isle has a lot less tourist and business allure to out-of-staters than does Portland). I could be wrong, but, either way, I would be very curious to know what percentage of F9 travelers are from out of state.

Delta upgrades BTV-LGA to mainline (A320 too) for the first time this week. I've been hoping/waiting to see mainline on DTW too, but not yet. ATL and LGA for now.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL ... /KBTV/KLGA

Now if only we could get a nonstop from HPN to BTV. But for now I will take the upgrade to LGA.

btvhopper wrote:

Delta upgrades BTV-LGA to mainline (A320 too) for the first time this week. I've been hoping/waiting to see mainline on DTW too, but not yet. ATL and LGA for now.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL ... /KBTV/KLGA

I have bad news for you...that was a one time thing. All flight henceforth are CRJs.

WN isn’t increasing flights at MHT, but they are increasing seats. The -800s have been exceeding the -700s for awhile now.

chrisnh wrote:

WN isn’t increasing flights at MHT, but they are increasing seats. The -800s have been exceeding the -700s for awhile now.

They maybe increasing seats, but they aren’t increasing the rear ends sitting on them as testified by the stats for this year

VS4ever wrote:

chrisnh wrote:

WN isn’t increasing flights at MHT, but they are increasing seats. The -800s have been exceeding the -700s for awhile now.

They maybe increasing seats, but they aren’t increasing the rear ends sitting on them as testified by the stats for this year

I believe last year had more daily flights. This winter there definitely sending more 800s/-8s through few months agog there was pretty much just 700s. But in the end still less seats year to date. Could the larger equipment have something to do with the rather large increase in cargo they’ve been handling?

I was just looking at June for Delta: PWM 3x to JFK(crj mix), 3x to ATL(all mainline), 4x to LGA with mainline and CRJ), 3x to DTW with mainline and CRJ) MHT JFK-none, LGA 1X(crj), ATL 1x A320, DTW 3X (CRJ), BTV 3X to JFK (CRJ), 1X to ATL(88), LGA 2X (crj), DTW 4x (CRJ)

bobinthecar wrote:

Now if only we could get a nonstop from HPN to BTV. But for now I will take the upgrade to LGA.

Tradewind had flights from HPN to Stowe in Winter, but i am not sure they are back this winter. HPN to BTV seems very unlikely, what airline would fly it? Both are airports with pretty much flights to hubs. being North of the city already its too easy a drive, i can't see anyone being able to fill a CRJ with all O&D at decent prices. Would be cool!

Anyone know if Tradewind or anyone is on HPN to Stowe this winter? Blade i think offers helicopter "public" charters if seats are open maybe? I would think its helicopter range? A little over 200 miles.

MO11 wrote:

btvhopper wrote:

Delta upgrades BTV-LGA to mainline (A320 too) for the first time this week. I've been hoping/waiting to see mainline on DTW too, but not yet. ATL and LGA for now.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL ... /KBTV/KLGA

I have bad news for you...that was a one time thing. All flight henceforth are CRJs.

Since we are talking one-offs I believe DL did fly an A320 DTW-BTV after Thanksgiving.