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jplatts
Posts: 3796
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:41 pm

william wrote:
That leads to the question, what is a focus city? Because you are describing the beginnings of a hub. DFW is a focus city, does DL schedule connections through DFW? Not arguing, just asking a question.


The definition of an focus city is an airport that (a) is not a hub AND (b) has a significant amount of nonstop service to destinations other than hubs or other focus cities on the focus city carrier.

DL still serves some destinations other than its hubs or focus cities nonstop from CVG, and CVG is still a focus city for DL. RDU is also a focus city for DL since DL serves some destinations that are not hubs or focus cities nonstop from RDU, but most of DL's nonstop service out of RDU is to its hubs, its CVG focus city, and East Coast destinations.

While DL did previously have a hub at DFW prior to its dehubbing in 2005, DFW is not currently a focus city for DL since the only destinations that DL currently serves nonstop from DFW are its ATL, DTW, LAX, MSP, LGA, JFK, and SLC hubs and its CVG focus city.

There are many WN stations that could be considered to be focus cities under this definition, including MDW, BWI, DEN, LAS, HOU, DAL, PHX, STL, MCO, ATL, FLL, TPA, BNA, LAX, OAK, SAN, AUS, MCI, SJC, and SMF. In addition, there are a few other smaller WN stations that could possibly be considered to be focus cities under this definition, including MSY, MKE, and DCA. WN even already offers some itineraries that involve a connection at an airport that isn't a hub or focus city for WN.

While AUS is not yet a focus city for DL, DL will be adding nonstop service to destinations other than DL hubs or its CVG, BOS, and RDU focus cities out of AUS if it is going to be establishing a focus city at AUS.

DL actually does offer some connecting itineraries that involve a connection at CVG or RDU, even though CVG and RDU are focus cities instead of full hubs for DL. However, CVG used to be a full hub for DL prior to the DL-NW merger, and CVG was even marketed as a hub by DL until earlier this year.

DL offering connections to smaller Texas markets from MSP, DTW, CVG, ATL, BOS, JFK, RDU, and MEX (through the DL-AM codeshare and existing AM MEX-AUS nonstop service) through AUS does not automatically make AUS a hub for DL. In fact, DL could offer connecting service to smaller Texas markets from DL hubs, DL focus cities, and MEX through AUS without establishing a hub at AUS. DL just simply needs to add nonstop service to smaller Texas markets out of AUS in order to provide connecting service to these smaller Texas markets from MSP, DTW, CVG, ATL, BOS, JFK, RDU, and MEX.
 
malev2012
Posts: 259
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:53 pm

jplatts wrote:
DL offering connections to smaller Texas markets from MSP, DTW, CVG, ATL, BOS, JFK, RDU, and MEX (through the DL-AM codeshare and existing AM MEX-AUS nonstop service) through AUS does not automatically make AUS a hub for DL. In fact, DL could offer connecting service to smaller Texas markets from DL hubs, DL focus cities, and MEX through AUS without establishing a hub at AUS. DL just simply needs to add nonstop service to smaller Texas markets out of AUS in order to provide connecting service to these smaller Texas markets from MSP, DTW, CVG, ATL, BOS, JFK, RDU, and MEX.


Do we really think much will be announced before the CS100 arrive on property though? If AMS seasonal was announced it would have to come out by October right?
Airlines flown: AA, AB, AC, AY, BA, CO, DL, DY, EW, F9, G4, IB, KL, LH, LX, NK, NW, NZ, OS, QF, SN, TP, UA, US, VA, VC, WN, XE
 
ADrum23
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Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:40 pm

malev2012 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Having gate space and attempting to hire a couple of more people don’t mean they will be able to expand more. If every route they add loose money, any expansion plans will be abandoned quickly. Even delta can only afford so many Seattle and Boston efforts.


Delta can certainly afford to lose money on a few routes, if it enhances their ability to pick up corporate contracts. Right now DL serves ATL, BOS, CVG, DTW, JFK, LAX, MSP, RDU, SEA, and SLC, (and MEX if you could JV partner AM). I honestly don't see them adding that many more flights to make it a focus city, however they have something other airlines don't in smaller mainline to establish more frequency, especially once the CS100 come on board.


I could see them adding a fair amount, but as I've said before, it will not be an overnight thing. DL has to start by adding AMS and a few low risk p2p's and then work from there to build up their FF base. The only real competition is WN, but DL has the advantage of having TATL (and potentially TPAC via KE) service that can win over business pax. Long term, I don't see any reason why DL can't build AUS to RDU/CVG levels.
 
malev2012
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:28 am

Seems now the blogs are picking up on it: https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.co ... -mini-hub/
Airlines flown: AA, AB, AC, AY, BA, CO, DL, DY, EW, F9, G4, IB, KL, LH, LX, NK, NW, NZ, OS, QF, SN, TP, UA, US, VA, VC, WN, XE
 
ADrum23
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:53 am

malev2012 wrote:
Seems now the blogs are picking up on it: https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.co ... -mini-hub/


When are the new gates suppose to open? That is probably when we will see new flights launched.

I predict DL kicks things off by announcing AUS-AMS either in the late summer or fall.
 
malev2012
Posts: 259
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:54 am

ADrum23 wrote:
malev2012 wrote:
Seems now the blogs are picking up on it: https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.co ... -mini-hub/


When are the new gates suppose to open? That is probably when we will see new flights launched.

I predict DL kicks things off by announcing AUS-AMS either in the late summer or fall.


Right now it's a vague "coming 2019". However based on the progress they have made, I would think they will be operation at least by next June if not earlier.
Airlines flown: AA, AB, AC, AY, BA, CO, DL, DY, EW, F9, G4, IB, KL, LH, LX, NK, NW, NZ, OS, QF, SN, TP, UA, US, VA, VC, WN, XE
 
JDawgboy512
Posts: 71
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:52 am

Considering how quickly they are moving, I would think that we should hear about when the expansion opens in the next 4 to 6 months.
 
sccutler
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:45 am

Interesting thought - if DL initiates nonstop service to AMS from Austin, mightn't it create an incentive for AA to offer non-stop DFW-AMS service?
...three miles from BRONS, clear for the ILS one five approach...
 
ADrum23
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:51 am

sccutler wrote:
Interesting thought - if DL initiates nonstop service to AMS from Austin, mightn't it create an incentive for AA to offer non-stop DFW-AMS service?


AA does DFW-AMS summer seasonally, and that’s the best they can do apparently, they just can’t sustain it year round. Even KL couldn’t make summer seasonal DFW-AMS work.
 
Jetty
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:52 am

ADrum23 wrote:
sccutler wrote:
Interesting thought - if DL initiates nonstop service to AMS from Austin, mightn't it create an incentive for AA to offer non-stop DFW-AMS service?


AA does DFW-AMS summer seasonally, and that’s the best they can do apparently, they just can’t sustain it year round. Even KL couldn’t make summer seasonal DFW-AMS work.

Both have the same problem: only feed on one end. You need connections at both ends for a secondary US airport to work at AMS.
 
malev2012
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Jun 25, 2018 5:01 pm

DI announced LGW flight going seasonal. Last flight is 10/27. Set to resume in March. This is also around the same time BA switches from 744 to LHR.
Airlines flown: AA, AB, AC, AY, BA, CO, DL, DY, EW, F9, G4, IB, KL, LH, LX, NK, NW, NZ, OS, QF, SN, TP, UA, US, VA, VC, WN, XE
 
pdxav8r
Posts: 256
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:16 pm

Jetty wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
sccutler wrote:
Interesting thought - if DL initiates nonstop service to AMS from Austin, mightn't it create an incentive for AA to offer non-stop DFW-AMS service?


AA does DFW-AMS summer seasonally, and that’s the best they can do apparently, they just can’t sustain it year round. Even KL couldn’t make summer seasonal DFW-AMS work.

Both have the same problem: only feed on one end. You need connections at both ends for a secondary US airport to work at AMS.


Umm, where is the connection on the end of AMS-PDX? No more AS...
 
reggiet
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Jun 26, 2018 1:26 am

malev2012 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
malev2012 wrote:
Seems now the blogs are picking up on it: https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.co ... -mini-hub/


When are the new gates suppose to open? That is probably when we will see new flights launched.

I predict DL kicks things off by announcing AUS-AMS either in the late summer or fall.


Right now it's a vague "coming 2019". However based on the progress they have made, I would think they will be operation at least by next June if not earlier.



On good knowledge, the new east terminal is ahead of schedule. It's slated to open in March, if not a few weeks earlier. The contractor just a few months ago had an online blurb on their website that it would open in July or even Fall 2019, according to one ABIA Air Operations official. So the ahead of schedule calendar is good news. A DEN red coat recently told me that DL has informed some pilots that they're putting a base in AUS ('Focus City' base). This and the large bourgeoisie Sky Club that'll be here (approx 14,000 sq ft footprint including the sky deck and a 170 bottle custom wine tower), generally tells me that AMS will very likely be up and running along with the new gates by March 2019. The AUS Sky Deck is one of only three Sky Deck appointed Clubs in DLs entire network. In addition, the Sky Club is rumored to have showers installed (upstairs for the sky club and ironically downstairs for below wing DL ramp personnel). DL has no extensive shower services installed at a Sky Club that doesn't involve one or two if not more international routes. All impressive regarding DL's view of their AUS 'opportunity.'
Reggie in Austin
 
masonh2479
Posts: 179
Joined: Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:44 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Jun 26, 2018 1:37 am

reggiet wrote:
malev2012 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

When are the new gates suppose to open? That is probably when we will see new flights launched.

I predict DL kicks things off by announcing AUS-AMS either in the late summer or fall.


Right now it's a vague "coming 2019". However based on the progress they have made, I would think they will be operation at least by next June if not earlier.



On good knowledge, the new east terminal is ahead of schedule. It's slated to open in March, if not a few weeks earlier. The contractor just a few months ago had an online blurb on their website that it would open in July or even Fall 2019, according to one ABIA Air Operations official. So the ahead of schedule calendar is good news. A DEN red coat recently told me that DL has informed some pilots that they're putting a base in AUS ('Focus City' base). This and the large bourgeoisie Sky Club that'll be here (approx 14,000 sq ft footprint including the sky deck and a 170 bottle custom wine tower), generally tells me that AMS will very likely be up and running along with the new gates by March 2019. The AUS Sky Deck is one of only three Sky Deck appointed Clubs in DLs entire network. In addition, the Sky Club is rumored to have showers installed (upstairs for the sky club and ironically downstairs for below wing DL ramp personnel). DL has no extensive shower services installed at a Sky Club that doesn't involve one or two if not more international routes. All impressive regarding DL's view of their AUS 'opportunity.'

Nice post, Reggie, thank you for the information!
 
jplatts
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:08 am

WN has opportunities to add nonstop service to CLE, CMH, and RDU out of AUS once additional gates open up at AUS. In addition, WN could also add Saturday-only nonstop service to LGA out of AUS.
 
ADrum23
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:22 am

reggiet wrote:
malev2012 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

When are the new gates suppose to open? That is probably when we will see new flights launched.

I predict DL kicks things off by announcing AUS-AMS either in the late summer or fall.


Right now it's a vague "coming 2019". However based on the progress they have made, I would think they will be operation at least by next June if not earlier.



On good knowledge, the new east terminal is ahead of schedule. It's slated to open in March, if not a few weeks earlier. The contractor just a few months ago had an online blurb on their website that it would open in July or even Fall 2019, according to one ABIA Air Operations official. So the ahead of schedule calendar is good news. A DEN red coat recently told me that DL has informed some pilots that they're putting a base in AUS ('Focus City' base). This and the large bourgeoisie Sky Club that'll be here (approx 14,000 sq ft footprint including the sky deck and a 170 bottle custom wine tower), generally tells me that AMS will very likely be up and running along with the new gates by March 2019. The AUS Sky Deck is one of only three Sky Deck appointed Clubs in DLs entire network. In addition, the Sky Club is rumored to have showers installed (upstairs for the sky club and ironically downstairs for below wing DL ramp personnel). DL has no extensive shower services installed at a Sky Club that doesn't involve one or two if not more international routes. All impressive regarding DL's view of their AUS 'opportunity.'


If AUS builds the satellite concourse as proposed in the current master plan, how many gates would it have? If it has at least 30, I could see DL taking over the entire east wings of both the existing and new concourses. That could give them at least 30-35 gates, making a 200-300 flight hub possible.

Looking at the proposed master plan, it looks very similar to the way CVG is layed out, and that was built as a DL hub operation initially. Does the airport know something we don’t?
 
ADrum23
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:26 am

jplatts wrote:
WN has opportunities to add nonstop service to CLE, CMH, and RDU out of AUS once additional gates open up at AUS. In addition, WN could also add Saturday-only nonstop service to LGA out of AUS.


I’d be focusing on SAT if I were WN. If these DL rumors are true, then in the future: AUS = DFW/IAH and SAT = DAL/HOU.
 
SATexan
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:20 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
I’d be focusing on SAT if I were WN. If these DL rumors are true, then in the future: AUS = DFW/IAH and SAT = DAL/HOU.

For the record, DFW carries 60 million+ and IAH is 40 million+ passengers every year.
Are you suggesting that AUS will eventually reach closer to these numbers once DL opens a hub????
 
ADrum23
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:44 pm

SATexan wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
I’d be focusing on SAT if I were WN. If these DL rumors are true, then in the future: AUS = DFW/IAH and SAT = DAL/HOU.

For the record, DFW carries 60 million+ and IAH is 40 million+ passengers every year.
Are you suggesting that AUS will eventually reach closer to these numbers once DL opens a hub????


No, what I was saying is if DL opens a hub at AUS eventually, then I see AUS becoming the DFW/IAH equivalent (the primary international airport with overseas flights) for the Austin/San Antonio region while SAT would become the DAL/HOU equivalent (large WN station, primarily domestic-oriented airport with limited international service) for the region. Idk, it was just a thought.

Even if DL opens a hub at AUS, I only see it reaching 250-300 flights max (SLC size), so it would not grow the airport to DFW/IAH pax levels for a long, long time.
 
jplatts
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Wed Jun 27, 2018 12:11 am

ADrum23 wrote:
No, what I was saying is if DL opens a hub at AUS eventually, then I see AUS becoming the DFW/IAH equivalent (the primary international airport with overseas flights) for the Austin/San Antonio region while SAT would become the DAL/HOU equivalent (large WN station, primarily domestic-oriented airport with limited international service) for the region. Idk, it was just a thought.


SAT is located 77 miles from AUS, and the SAT is far enough from AUS to sustain WN service to both AUS and SAT. In addition, all of the destinations that currently have nonstop service out of SAT on WN also already have nonstop service out of AUS on WN. LAX and ATL also are both DL hub airports and WN focus city airports.
 
Longhornmaniac
Posts: 3145
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2005 2:33 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:52 pm

Looks like the new Food and Fuel/Cell Lot is opening sometime in July.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTJ8f5U ... e=youtu.be
Cheers,
Cameron
 
colindm
Posts: 30
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2018 1:22 am

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:28 pm

https://imgur.com/gallery/mzggLU3

Delta routes from Austin by 2020, best-case scenario. (Blue lines are Delta's Partner's routes, in this case AeroMexico)
 
User avatar
b777900
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:18 am

DELTA could fly the A350900 AUS-AMS
[i[b]]Prepare for Gate arrival, Gate 32
 
ADrum23
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:37 am

b777900 wrote:
DELTA could fly the A350900 AUS-AMS


Pretty unlikely, it will probably be a 763ER.
 
ADrum23
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Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:38 am

colindm wrote:
https://imgur.com/gallery/mzggLU3

Delta routes from Austin by 2020, best-case scenario. (Blue lines are Delta's Partner's routes, in this case AeroMexico)


What about AMS?

Also, how many of these would be mainline vs regional?
 
ADrum23
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Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 1:57 am

So BA is apparently moving to a 77W for the fall/winter seasons, much bigger than the 789.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/279328/british-airways-w18-austin-aircraft-changes/

Is this due to demand or because of the RR issues?
 
Longhornmaniac
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:46 am

ADrum23 wrote:
So BA is apparently moving to a 77W for the fall/winter seasons, much bigger than the 789.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/279328/british-airways-w18-austin-aircraft-changes/

Is this due to demand or because of the RR issues?


It's probably a little of column A and a little of column B.

Suffice it to say, this route has matured, probably beyond even BA's wildest dreams. It has the premium demand and cargo, and with Norwegian and Condor operating only seasonally, BA is back to the only ticket in town if you want nonstop service to Europe for about 5 months. I feel confident they can run a 77W profitably, even in the winter. The business demand is year-round, and being the only operator in the winter to Europe, one would expect that even during low leisure season they can fill seats in the back at yields somewhere above trash.

That all said, it's certainly conspicuous that we've gotten these upgauges only once the 787 issues become known. I would expect this route to continue to be a 789 if they weren't having problems, and it quite possibly will revert back to it once they're resolved. On the other hand, if they can sustain the demand with a larger aircraft, it may just be that they can use the 789 on other long and thin routes, or routes they're looking to incrementally grow like BNA and/or MSY.

Either way, it's exciting to see a 77W for the winter. I had heard rumblings through the grapevine they were planning to keep the Jumbo on it in the winter due to the ongoing issues with the 787s, so I'm not surprised at the larger aircraft. I think a Jumbo probably would've been too much airplane in the winter, so I was somewhat expecting either this or a 4-cabin 772. Having another new scheduled type is pretty exciting, so I'm happy! Now all we need is the A350 and A380 and we'll have had BA's entire widebody offering in less than a decade! :lol:
Cheers,
Cameron
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:27 am

Longhornmaniac wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
So BA is apparently moving to a 77W for the fall/winter seasons, much bigger than the 789.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/279328/british-airways-w18-austin-aircraft-changes/

Is this due to demand or because of the RR issues?


It's probably a little of column A and a little of column B.

Suffice it to say, this route has matured, probably beyond even BA's wildest dreams. It has the premium demand and cargo, and with Norwegian and Condor operating only seasonally, BA is back to the only ticket in town if you want nonstop service to Europe for about 5 months. I feel confident they can run a 77W profitably, even in the winter. The business demand is year-round, and being the only operator in the winter to Europe, one would expect that even during low leisure season they can fill seats in the back at yields somewhere above trash.

That all said, it's certainly conspicuous that we've gotten these upgauges only once the 787 issues become known. I would expect this route to continue to be a 789 if they weren't having problems, and it quite possibly will revert back to it once they're resolved. On the other hand, if they can sustain the demand with a larger aircraft, it may just be that they can use the 789 on other long and thin routes, or routes they're looking to incrementally grow like BNA and/or MSY.

Either way, it's exciting to see a 77W for the winter. I had heard rumblings through the grapevine they were planning to keep the Jumbo on it in the winter due to the ongoing issues with the 787s, so I'm not surprised at the larger aircraft. I think a Jumbo probably would've been too much airplane in the winter, so I was somewhat expecting either this or a 4-cabin 772. Having another new scheduled type is pretty exciting, so I'm happy! Now all we need is the A350 and A380 and we'll have had BA's entire widebody offering in less than a decade! :lol:


Interestingly though, the 77W I believe has more seats than the 747 they are using.

What will be interesting is what they do if/when DL launches AUS-AMS.
 
Longhornmaniac
Posts: 3145
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2005 2:33 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:36 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
Longhornmaniac wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
So BA is apparently moving to a 77W for the fall/winter seasons, much bigger than the 789.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/279328/british-airways-w18-austin-aircraft-changes/

Is this due to demand or because of the RR issues?


It's probably a little of column A and a little of column B.

Suffice it to say, this route has matured, probably beyond even BA's wildest dreams. It has the premium demand and cargo, and with Norwegian and Condor operating only seasonally, BA is back to the only ticket in town if you want nonstop service to Europe for about 5 months. I feel confident they can run a 77W profitably, even in the winter. The business demand is year-round, and being the only operator in the winter to Europe, one would expect that even during low leisure season they can fill seats in the back at yields somewhere above trash.

That all said, it's certainly conspicuous that we've gotten these upgauges only once the 787 issues become known. I would expect this route to continue to be a 789 if they weren't having problems, and it quite possibly will revert back to it once they're resolved. On the other hand, if they can sustain the demand with a larger aircraft, it may just be that they can use the 789 on other long and thin routes, or routes they're looking to incrementally grow like BNA and/or MSY.

Either way, it's exciting to see a 77W for the winter. I had heard rumblings through the grapevine they were planning to keep the Jumbo on it in the winter due to the ongoing issues with the 787s, so I'm not surprised at the larger aircraft. I think a Jumbo probably would've been too much airplane in the winter, so I was somewhat expecting either this or a 4-cabin 772. Having another new scheduled type is pretty exciting, so I'm happy! Now all we need is the A350 and A380 and we'll have had BA's entire widebody offering in less than a decade! :lol:


Interestingly though, the 77W I believe has more seats than the 747 they are using.

What will be interesting is what they do if/when DL launches AUS-AMS.


According to TheBASource, the most common configuration we see is the 52J, with a dash of 86J sprinkled in. The 52J configuration (according to TheBASource) is 14F52J36W235Y, for a total of 327, compared to 297 for the 77W. Nevertheless, it's not much of a difference.

I honestly don't expect it to change much of what BA does if/when DL moves in. This route is a gold mine for them, and there seems to be little evidence of other carriers to Europe (even to London) having an appreciable impact based on this summer.
Cheers,
Cameron
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:02 pm

Longhornmaniac wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Longhornmaniac wrote:

It's probably a little of column A and a little of column B.

Suffice it to say, this route has matured, probably beyond even BA's wildest dreams. It has the premium demand and cargo, and with Norwegian and Condor operating only seasonally, BA is back to the only ticket in town if you want nonstop service to Europe for about 5 months. I feel confident they can run a 77W profitably, even in the winter. The business demand is year-round, and being the only operator in the winter to Europe, one would expect that even during low leisure season they can fill seats in the back at yields somewhere above trash.

That all said, it's certainly conspicuous that we've gotten these upgauges only once the 787 issues become known. I would expect this route to continue to be a 789 if they weren't having problems, and it quite possibly will revert back to it once they're resolved. On the other hand, if they can sustain the demand with a larger aircraft, it may just be that they can use the 789 on other long and thin routes, or routes they're looking to incrementally grow like BNA and/or MSY.

Either way, it's exciting to see a 77W for the winter. I had heard rumblings through the grapevine they were planning to keep the Jumbo on it in the winter due to the ongoing issues with the 787s, so I'm not surprised at the larger aircraft. I think a Jumbo probably would've been too much airplane in the winter, so I was somewhat expecting either this or a 4-cabin 772. Having another new scheduled type is pretty exciting, so I'm happy! Now all we need is the A350 and A380 and we'll have had BA's entire widebody offering in less than a decade! :lol:


Interestingly though, the 77W I believe has more seats than the 747 they are using.

What will be interesting is what they do if/when DL launches AUS-AMS.


According to TheBASource, the most common configuration we see is the 52J, with a dash of 86J sprinkled in. The 52J configuration (according to TheBASource) is 14F52J36W235Y, for a total of 327, compared to 297 for the 77W. Nevertheless, it's not much of a difference.

I honestly don't expect it to change much of what BA does if/when DL moves in. This route is a gold mine for them, and there seems to be little evidence of other carriers to Europe (even to London) having an appreciable impact based on this summer.


The question is though, is the route only a gold mine for them because of the lack of competition? We'll likely soon find out.

For the record, I do strongly believe that even if DL decides to hub AUS long term (complete with flights to both CDG and AMS), BA will endure, though it would likely be downgauged back to a 772 or a 789. Where things could get harry though, is if VS enters the market if a DL hub emerges.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5462
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:08 pm

LHR is so far away the most dominant international market out of US and BA owns the point of sale there. I don't see how any move by DL can force them back. If anything, an upgauged BA presence on AUS-LHR would really push down performance for AUS-AMS.
 
Longhornmaniac
Posts: 3145
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2005 2:33 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:20 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
Longhornmaniac wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

Interestingly though, the 77W I believe has more seats than the 747 they are using.

What will be interesting is what they do if/when DL launches AUS-AMS.


According to TheBASource, the most common configuration we see is the 52J, with a dash of 86J sprinkled in. The 52J configuration (according to TheBASource) is 14F52J36W235Y, for a total of 327, compared to 297 for the 77W. Nevertheless, it's not much of a difference.

I honestly don't expect it to change much of what BA does if/when DL moves in. This route is a gold mine for them, and there seems to be little evidence of other carriers to Europe (even to London) having an appreciable impact based on this summer.


The question is though, is the route only a gold mine for them because of the lack of competition? We'll likely soon find out.

For the record, I do strongly believe that even if DL decides to hub AUS long term (complete with flights to both CDG and AMS), BA will endure, though it would likely be downgauged back to a 772 or a 789. Where things could get harry though, is if VS enters the market if a DL hub emerges.


I don't see VS in AUS; they're a small airline all things considered, and AUS doesn't really fit the profile of a VS city. It just doesn't have enough O&D demand. I don't think BA has been bothered by Norwegian; they may have tanked yields in the back, but as long as premium demand stays high, it should continue to print money.

With respect to DL and AMS, it's certainly plausible that they take a chunk of the traffic flowing over LHR on BA now, and AMS is generally a better airport to transit than LHR, but it doesn't change the fact that O&D will always be highest to London. Moreover, a lot of the tech traffic (passengers and cargo) will be flowing to/from the Subcontinent, where BA has a much larger and more established network.

I think Austin is quickly growing into a place where there is enough demand for all of the alliances to have a token presence in the AUS-Europe markets, at a minimum in the busy summer season. Each will cater to slightly different markets. BA will cater to business traffic and tech traffic due to their London presence and onward connections to India/Middle East, DL/KLM will provide a Skyteam option to connect most of Europe, and will possibly benefit from the Delta brand-recognition among US passengers. Condor will cater more to Germans coming to Central Texas. It would be interesting to see if LH would give AUS a go to provide more direct feed. If it stays seasonal, I'd expect it to remain with DE. And Norwegian will sell cheap seats.

All in all, it just feels like AUS continues to mature as a trans-Atlantic market, largely on the backs of BA. Time well tell how much service it can really support, but I am optimistic about BA and DL maintaining year-round service and at least one of DI and DE maintaining seasonal service.
Cheers,
Cameron
 
Longhornmaniac
Posts: 3145
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2005 2:33 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:21 pm

Cell Phone Lot is open as of today.
Cheers,
Cameron
 
malev2012
Posts: 259
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2017 11:59 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:33 pm

Looks like May was another record month of traffic: http://austintexas.gov/news/may-2018-pa ... -bergstrom
Airlines flown: AA, AB, AC, AY, BA, CO, DL, DY, EW, F9, G4, IB, KL, LH, LX, NK, NW, NZ, OS, QF, SN, TP, UA, US, VA, VC, WN, XE
 
masonh2479
Posts: 179
Joined: Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:44 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:58 pm

When the extension finally opens, I have been wondering if JetBlue will take a few gates and beef up their Austin OPS. There has been a lot of speculation in the past that JetBlue would build up Austin and I wonder if it will be Delta gets 4 new gates, JetBlue gets 3, and then Southwest takes Delta’s old gates. Keep in mind two of the gates in the 9 gate extension will be CUTE. JetBlue has been pretty much stagnant in Austin for a long time but Austin is changed and JetBlue is too.

Considering the other airlines, I would bet Frontier is done with growth in Austin for a bit, ViaAir seems to still be growing and they have said in the past they want to be Austin’s hometown airline and would be adding routes through 2018, so maybe some more growth from them. AA and UA are pretty much fine as is and I won’t expect any expansion.

On my short term wishlist I really want to see AC fly YVR.
 
digitalman12
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:01 am

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:59 pm

I'm quite shocked that jetBlue never built up AUS. It's such a jetBlue city. Missed opportunity on their part. I could maybe see them adding a couple routes to the Northeast or something, but they already pulled their SFO route a couple years ago due to competition. I don't see routes that would make sense for them. DCA doesn't work because of perimeter rule. TPA wouldn't make sense because they already serve MCO and FLL from AUS. I could see them adding frequencies (they already added a LGB frequency) and maybe another BOS flight. I think SFO is a lost cause now that they have WN in addition to Alaska/VX and United. There isn't demand for SJN from AUS, but maybe there is demand for a seasonal flight to Latin America (possibly LIR, LIM or most likely, SJO).
 
kavok
Posts: 848
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:01 pm

Here is the thing... all of DLs “Hubs” also offer numerous flights to other (mostly smaller) airports that are not served by any other DL hub. That is basically the main difference between a hub and a focus city. Almost any destination served by RDU, CVG, BOS can also be reached from at least two of DLs other hubs.

For AUS to be a true DL hub, it would have to pick up flights (mostly on RJs) to small West Texas and Mexican airports. I don’t see that happening soon, so if AUS is going to be anything in the DL system, at most it will be a focus city for a while.
 
digitalman12
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:01 am

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:04 am

kavok wrote:
Here is the thing... all of DLs “Hubs” also offer numerous flights to other (mostly smaller) airports that are not served by any other DL hub. That is basically the main difference between a hub and a focus city. Almost any destination served by RDU, CVG, BOS can also be reached from at least two of DLs other hubs.

For AUS to be a true DL hub, it would have to pick up flights (mostly on RJs) to small West Texas and Mexican airports. I don’t see that happening soon, so if AUS is going to be anything in the DL system, at most it will be a focus city for a while.



and even some medium sized Texas airports like Harlingen and until recently, Killeen/Temple/Ft Hood have been served from ATL. Secondary airports Houston-Hobby and Dallas-Love Field both have ATL flights as well. I honestly could see them adding a couple TX routes to their SLC or ATL hubs perhaps just to start building a TX frequent flyer base if they ever do want to build up AUS in this way. I'm talking airports like LUB, AMA, MAF and MFE. All served by WN, AA and UA. Of course, this doesn't appear to be the path they are going down considering that they just pulled out of GRK as I mentioned
 
steveAUS
Posts: 21
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 5:59 am

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:04 am

Gate renumbering is underway! The old gate 25 is now gate 34. Looks like they are starting with the high to low number and working their way down. Will be interested to see the rate in which they complete the renumbering.

https://twitter.com/AUStinAirport/statu ... 0102254592
 
steveAUS
Posts: 21
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 5:59 am

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:31 am

steveAUS wrote:
Gate renumbering is underway! The old gate 25 is now gate 34. Looks like they are starting with the high to low number and working their way down. Will be interested to see the rate in which they complete the renumbering.

https://twitter.com/AUStinAirport/statu ... 0102254592


Looks like the first round of renumbering when to the old gate 21, which is now 30.

Tomorrow's flights are also on the new numbering scheme. Flights out of AUS before 9am on 8/1 on the newly numbered gates include:
    Gate 30
    AA2413 to LAX
    AA738 to CLT
    AA130 to DFW
    AA4747 to MIA
    Gate 31
    UA399 to DEN
    UA6028 to IAD
    Gate 32
    AA1593 to MIA
    AA1459 to LAX
    Gate 33
    UA1920 to IAH
    UA1919 to IAH
    Gate 34
    AS418 to SEA
 
tkoenig95
Posts: 313
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:27 pm

http://www.austintexas.gov/news/june-20 ... -bergstrom
Looks like traffic growth is still on the up-and-up! +15% for June 2018 LY, astonishing.

Biggest traffic increases:
AS +122%
BA +58%
DL +58%
F9 +158%
Y4 +150% (surprising, though LF looks to be around 53%)

DE had an approximate LF of 59% which doesn't sound too great for continental-Europe traffic. Are intra-European connections doing well from FRA and onward?

DI maintained very good numbers with an average LF of 92% which quite exceeded expectations of their success in AUS as many analysts and anetters though two flights to LON would be overkill. Further investigation would be to know if traffic is mainly O&D or connecting to Norther Europe and the Mediterranean.

B6 was down -7%, and expect frequency cuts into the fall as management continues to shift operations.

It seems F9's route expansion has paid off in AUS as they took the biggest increase in June. P2P continues to be vital for AUS and the catchment area.

A small dot on the radar is Vacation Express (WQ) averaging an LF of about 80% which is great for a service that started with little to no brand history in the Central Texas region.

*all LF numbers are approximate on the base of calculating number of flights and total traffic recorded by ABIA data.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 13338
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Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:39 am

digitalman12 wrote:
I'm quite shocked that jetBlue never built up AUS. It's such a jetBlue city. Missed opportunity on their part.

Agree completely. I really thought they'd make it their Texas/SouthCentral focus... allowing them to finally get some east-west traffic that wasn't just coast to coast.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
LoneStarMike
Posts: 2804
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2000 1:02 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:53 am

Here's some local coverage from the NBC affiliate in Austin. The video is about 3 minutes long.

Construction milestone reached for Austin airport expansion

It's about the gate numbering changes, but a lot of it is outside in front of the expansion area with some good views of the work that's already been done. The numbered jetways that you see in the videos are the old jetways from Gates 2, 3, and 4 which have been reattached to the new expansion. In the end, those won't be the actual gate numbers. I'm guessing Gate 2 will be renumbered as Gate 11, Gate 3 renumbered as Gate 9 and Gate 4 renumbered as Gate 7. (Odd numbers on the south side of the pier and even numbers on the north side of the pier.

That's my eduacated guess based on this diagram

Notice how Gate 13 is on the south side of the pier and Gate 14 is on the north side of the pier. On the West Concourse, the odd numbered gates are also on the south side on the pier and even numbered gates are on the north side.

33 of the 34 gates will have jetways. The old Gate 1 was a ground level gate and it will continue to be a ground level gate as the new Gate 13.

Image
 
User avatar
afterburner33
Posts: 195
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2012 8:46 am

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:58 am

malev2012 wrote:
DI announced LGW flight going seasonal. Last flight is 10/27. Set to resume in March. This is also around the same time BA switches from 744 to LHR.


That's a shame. I'm coming to AUS from the UK on DI next weekend, and my ticket was booked a month or so ago.

Cost of BA standard economy one way ticket - £1800
Cost of DI 'business' (really premium economy) one way ticket - £750

OK so the DI flight is LGW rather than LHR which is more inconvenient for me, but really that's a no-brainer. My company is paying, but still, that's a mildly outrageous difference. My return trip from the UK to NZ later in the year was cheaper than that.
 
llintner
Posts: 27
Joined: Wed Dec 08, 2010 4:21 am

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:01 pm

LoneStarMike wrote:
I'm guessing Gate 2 will be renumbered as Gate 11, Gate 3 renumbered as Gate 9 and Gate 4 renumbered as Gate 7. (Odd numbers on the south side of the pier and even numbers on the north side of the pier.

Notice how Gate 13 is on the south side of the pier and Gate 14 is on the north side of the pier. On the West Concourse, the odd numbered gates are also on the south side on the pier and even numbered gates are on the north side.

33 of the 34 gates will have jetways. The old Gate 1 was a ground level gate and it will continue to be a ground level gate as the new Gate 13.

Image


You are correct in that the old Gate 2 will be Gate 11. Old Gate 3 will be Gate 9. Those are currently being refurbished on the North side of the building. The old Gate 4 (currently T4) will remain in service until the first phase opens. It will then be removed (along with T2, T3, T3A), refurbished and hung possibly as Gate 12 when the second phase opens.
 
LoneStarMike
Posts: 2804
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2000 1:02 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:48 pm

Here's a better depiction:

Image.

If there are two widebodies at the end of the concourse, one would use the Jetways for Gates 1 and 3, and the other would use the Jetways for Gates 2 and 4. If there are no widebodies at the end of the concourse, I believe the Jetways for Gates 1 and 3 and Gates 2 and 4 can be adjusted so they're further apart allowing each of them to service a narrowbody plane.

Image

Note there are lines for an aircraft parking space in the lower right hand corner of the image, but here is no Jetway for it. I'm thinking the Jetway that I've marked "Movable Jetway" can be swung around to service an aircraft at that parking position. I'm guessing the Jetways for Gates 1 and 3 can do the same thing.
 
LovePrunesAnet
Posts: 268
Joined: Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:04 am

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:35 am

LoneStarMike wrote:
Here's a better depiction:



Image

Note there are lines for an aircraft parking space in the lower right hand corner of the image, but here is no Jetway for it. I'm thinking the Jetway that I've marked "Movable Jetway" can be swung around to service an aircraft at that parking position. I'm guessing the Jetways for Gates 1 and 3 can do the same thing.



yes, that's how jet bridges work. the part that actually touches the plane is in a round, rotatable/turnable platform that the walls adjust depending on what direction the plane parks. Here's pic of another of a jetbridge rotated in a different position to demonstrate. Nothing new here, all standard tech for decades on this equipment. When it rotates, the slatted metal "wall" moves with it and creates more or less wall on the left or right of the opening where the passengers cross to and from the plane door. The plan can park anywhere, it doesn't have to be on the line, but the line helps ensure the maximum efficiency of dense aircraft parking relative to each other. If the round part turns to the left, on the pictured side of the photo there will be fewer metal "slats" with windows such as seen here, and MORE on the opposite side as the retractable wall expands. And the opposite will happen if the round part rotates to the right. That's precisely why that part of the jet bridge is circular, for the rotation to be possible.
Image
 
Capn
Posts: 273
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:14 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:56 pm

It's been awhile, any news at AUS ?
UH-1 DEHAVILAND HERON MARTIN 404 DC-9 CHALLENGER 601 FALCON 50 & 900EX
 
dfwneedsqf
Posts: 93
Joined: Sat Apr 17, 2004 10:31 am

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:25 pm

Capn wrote:
It's been awhile, any news at AUS ?


According to the KAUS twitter, they have completed phase 2 of numbering changes on gates 16-20 which changed to 25-29.

Image

Outside of that, it looks like Norwegian booking is available from March 1st - 30th for their return in Spring 2018
 
tkoenig95
Posts: 313
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: Austin Texas Thread - 2018

Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:34 pm

Does the airport have an exact opening date for the terminal expansion?

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