Today, 2nd January 2018, Norwegian issued a press release stating that 2018 will see the airline’s biggest year for growth since its inception.

They will take a number of additional aircraft throughout the year including 737-800, 737Max and 787 Dreamliners.

Frequencies will be increased across a number of existing routes and new routes to South America.

I know that a number of people have said that Norwegian will end up folding due to it’s rapid expansion plans but it doesn’t appear to be holding back.

I know they have done a number of sale and lease backs in recent years to improve liquidity and I would imagine this will most probably continue.

They have said that after 2018 the airlines growth plans will be scaled back somewhat as they begin to reach a critical mass.

I have been very impressed with what they have achieved over recent years and the business does appear sustainable to me, atleast whilst fuel prices remain low.

Would love to hear other a.netters opinions.

The press release can be found at:

http://media.norwegian.com/uk/#/pressre ... 18-2355093

This airline has got to be a bubble waiting to burst. I don't see how this is sustainable, but the growth is incredible. At this rate I wouldn't be surprised to see a Norwegian Papua New Guinea sometime soon.

Well, we'll see, but I wouldn't invest money in it:

https://www.lifeinnorway.net/is-the-fai ... norwegian/

"Is the Fairytale Over for Norwegian?"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-norw ... SKBN1AA1MR

"Norwegian Air under pressure to boost finances

http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/n ... 54799.html

"Norwegian Air shares dive on transatlantic costs

Those are just a small sample of the negative headlines, and deliberately I haven't posted any of what Michael O'Leary, a competitor, has said ("they're running out of money"). It's possible, of course, that Norwegian will prove all its critics wrong, but I wouldn't bank on it.

Airlines don't just run on avgas and dreams - there are also the iron laws of arithmetic.

mariner

They grow because they have ordered all these new planes that have to be put to use somewhere. This winter season is going to be a long and hard one for them.

It's not like they are doing something different. Fi does the low cost tatl also and actually have a sustainable business model.

I couldn't care less if it's sustainable or not, its disrupting the competition and that's something this industry desperately needed. The legacies can do whatever they want, but one thing they can't do ignore is ignore DY. Norwegian is definitely doing something right if my grandmother hasn't flown a legacy TATL in the last decade but flew DY 3 times just in the last year alone. Like it or not, more people are choosing to fly DY than are flying the legacies. And it's not just because of price, the product is MILES ahead of the US3 and EU3.

neomax wrote:

I couldn't care less if it's sustainable or not, its disrupting the competition and that's something this industry desperately needed. The legacies can do whatever they want, but one thing they can't do ignore is ignore DY. Norwegian is definitely doing something right if my grandmother hasn't flown a legacy TATL in the last decade but flew DY 3 times just in the last year alone. Like it or not, more people are choosing to fly DY than are flying the legacies. And it's not just because of price, the product is MILES ahead of the US3 and EU3.

Better product? TATL? What would that be?

The increase of seating for the Premium section in the cabins means a lot IMO. Low cost is good, but yields must have been so so tiny for some of the business there...

I'd stick to LGW, USA, and Scandinavia mostly, increasing volumes on established routes (this has been also announced for routes like LGW-OAK/LAX), and once there, I would try and balance the purely leisure business with the truly potential which IMO is really there for the Premium pax happy to fly a different proposal on a super-market-treasure like JFK-LGW.

DY stocks did well in fact today, so the market probably liked the announcements made by the airline.

neomax wrote:

I couldn't care less if it's sustainable or not, its disrupting the competition and that's something this industry desperately needed. The legacies can do whatever they want, but one thing they can't do ignore is ignore DY. Norwegian is definitely doing something right if my grandmother hasn't flown a legacy TATL in the last decade but flew DY 3 times just in the last year alone. Like it or not, more people are choosing to fly DY than are flying the legacies. And it's not just because of price, the product is MILES ahead of the US3 and EU3.

really? More passengers fly Norwegian then the legacies?

and because the product is so much better?

neomax wrote:

I couldn't care less if it's sustainable or not, its disrupting the competition and that's something this industry desperately needed. The legacies can do whatever they want, but one thing they can't do ignore is ignore DY. Norwegian is definitely doing something right if my grandmother hasn't flown a legacy TATL in the last decade but flew DY 3 times just in the last year alone. Like it or not, more people are choosing to fly DY than are flying the legacies. And it's not just because of price, the product is MILES ahead of the US3 and EU3.

Well then I guess the legacy carriers will have to start charging for food on longhaul flights the way DY does, and fire their senior flight attendants in favor of a young inexperienced and low paid Norwegian/Air Canada Rouge style cabin crew.

And fliers will have to start to enjoy using secondary airports (maybe DY can scatter the world with their own versions of "lovely" airports like Frankfurt Hahn)

And as an airline fan I guess I'm just growing bored of this Walmartization of the industry (a la Avianca & LATAM & Air Asia) where we will eventually see a Norwegian Mexico, Norwegian Australia, Norwegian Japan, Norwegian Tajikistan, Norwegian Sao Tome & Principe, etc.

This PR focuses on the UK market and it is intended for an UK audience.

Norwegian will also grow in other markets (France, Spain) open an Argentina franchise, etc.

Well, I was going to comment that DY made IAG respond with LEVEL, but I don't think LEVEL was created just to compete with DY. Main reason being they have chosen ORY to be their next base as opposed to LGW, even after obtaining those slots from Monarch.

So maybe there is a method to DYs madness and they come out of this much stronger!

Are they going to expand to any new cities in the US?

How many times has this been tried......starting with Laker.....and these North Atlantic LCCs always fail in the end. The flag of convenience thingy is a new twist though.

neomax wrote:

I couldn't care less if it's sustainable or not, its disrupting the competition and that's something this industry desperately needed. The legacies can do whatever they want, but one thing they can't do ignore is ignore DY.

That’s an ignorant statement.

If their model isn’t sustainable, they won’t be disrupting anything over the medium/long term. Unable to cover their costs, they will fold and they will be parted out at a discount to their more rational competitors.

Lol I find it funny that some people on here would dislike DY bringing down the North Atlantic air fare which the legacy carries charge high fare for poor service. DY is working with in the laws of European and American system. In the US some of you should look up what minimum wage is lol. DY is paying way above and employe hundreds of people.

SteelChair wrote:

How many times has this been tried......starting with Laker.....and these North Atlantic LCCs always fail in the end. The flag of convenience thingy is a new twist though.

You guys still crack me up with this "flag of convenience" nonsense. I've tried to educate people on here but, I mind as well be banging my head against a wall. Norwegian created an entirely new airline (a few now actually), separate operating certificate etc, to operate flights to work with laws in place. The product is pretty much the same across the fleets, with the same name, unlike a shipping company which just registers a ship in a different port. Norwegian actually could have gone the 5th freedom route but they didn't, they went about it the right way.

While Norwegian's growth has been tremendous, they have certainly hit some snags along the way. You have to crawl before you can walk, and they have certainly been learning along the (hard) way with everything from aircraft damage to staffing problems, to aircraft delivery delays.

I'll just say this: If the model doesn't work, then they would sell planes and scrap their ideas. Instead, they've partnered with Easyjet to add feed to their transatlantic hub, created their own handling companies, created a leasing company and operate with a bank, maxing out a number of routes/flights with cargo, the list goes on... It could just be me, but I would guess they don't have all their eggs in one basket, and I think a lot of people miss that point.

But by all means, get the popcorn ready, I'm sure there are plenty more surprises along the way...

scotron11 wrote:

Well, I was going to comment that DY made IAG respond with LEVEL, but I don't think LEVEL was created just to compete with DY. Main reason being they have chosen ORY to be their next base as opposed to LGW, even after obtaining those slots from Monarch.

So maybe there is a method to DYs madness and they come out of this much stronger!

That's the problem with legacies.

They are creating airlines just to stay relevant: how has JOON, Transavia, LEVEL, Eurowings fared in comparison to Norwegian?

The only airlines coming close (imo) are Jetstar and Scoot on the other side of the world. The Americans and Europeans have not done it right.

This is bad news. I hope they would calm down and try to establish a sustainable service instead of illusionary growth. I am afraid they will collapse within this year and that is no good.

NYCVIE wrote:

neomax wrote:

I couldn't care less if it's sustainable or not, its disrupting the competition and that's something this industry desperately needed. The legacies can do whatever they want, but one thing they can't do ignore is ignore DY. Norwegian is definitely doing something right if my grandmother hasn't flown a legacy TATL in the last decade but flew DY 3 times just in the last year alone. Like it or not, more people are choosing to fly DY than are flying the legacies. And it's not just because of price, the product is MILES ahead of the US3 and EU3.

Better product? TATL? What would that be?

Norwegian actually has good service. Yes, they charge for food and everything, but their flight attendants are professional and courteous. I've heard this repeatedly from fliers. I have many corporate clients that now include Norwegian on their list of acceptable transatlantic carriers.

Bring on PDX-CDG.

Also, Norwegian will add almost 300,000 seats to Helsinki (HEL). But I wonder, when will HEL see long-haul flights from DY. Bjørn Kjos said in October 2016 that it's possible that the airline would launch long-haul flights from HEL in 2018.

The concerns about DY's finances and expansion model are not brought here just by some. Some of the most important finance news have commented on this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articl ... d-a-prayer
https://www.ft.com/content/a013d226-daa ... 4b1c09b482

IMO, I love the product and the way DY has pushed it on to the market; with a revolutionary good fleet, namely the 787, and entering on routes which have been traditionally niche of legacy carriers (i.e. London-New York). The only thing some people worry about, and I suspect investors do is finances. When you expand you hope all that investment deployed in the market pays back and gives revenues. However, they seem to have been needing lots of investment for that expansion, while the actual business doesn't pay off at the same pace investors want.

Norwegian model is already there, and if not DY because of whatever finance weakness, any other actor will take over, and go for it. I just believe that main DY limitation is industrial. I am afraid, being realistic, finances would do better, and growth more stable if they were under a group.

neomax wrote:

Like it or not, more people are choosing to fly DY than are flying the legacies. And it's not just because of price, the product is MILES ahead of the US3 and EU3.

...lol, not one thing you just said is actually factual.

mariner wrote:

Well, we'll see, but I wouldn't invest money in it:

https://www.lifeinnorway.net/is-the-fai ... norwegian/

"Is the Fairytale Over for Norwegian?"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-norw ... SKBN1AA1MR

"Norwegian Air under pressure to boost finances

http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/n ... 54799.html

"Norwegian Air shares dive on transatlantic costs

Those are just a small sample of the negative headlines, and deliberately I haven't posted any of what Michael O'Leary, a competitor, has said ("they're running out of money"). It's possible, of course, that Norwegian will prove all its critics wrong, but I wouldn't bank on it.

Airlines don't just run on avgas and dreams - there are also the iron laws of arithmetic.

mariner

Operational issues and costs can always be tackled and settled in the short-to-medium term...they are not the real probelm IMHO...demand is there so Norwegian can fulfill it...the question is at what pace...

I think the gist of Norwegian's problems is financial risk appetite...they have a weak, wobbly balance sheet...deriving from a very heavy pace of capital expenditure...a balance sheet heavily laden with leasing deals and an anemic amount of equity...

If they hit financial headwinds before they can reinforce their equity base, the model may well become terminally unsustainable...


Faro

alan3 wrote:

Well then I guess the legacy carriers will have to start charging for food on longhaul flights the way DY does, and fire their senior flight attendants in favor of a young inexperienced and low paid Norwegian/Air Canada Rouge style cabin crew.

.

You pay for food on all airlines, it's just that on regulare airlines it is included in the overall price, where as with Norwegian you can opt out and get a cheaper flight. I don't get all these people who apparently live in this fantacy world that airlines are charities and that food are free. Food is not free on ANY airline.

I'm all for competition, though I guess I don't find the fares on the legacies that outrageous. I regularly fly IB TATL for 400€ r/t.

But I just don't get where they keep getting money. I think it will probably be worse for consumers but I really see them failing in spectacular fashion and just ceasing operations without much warning.

LAX772LR wrote:

neomax wrote:

Like it or not, more people are choosing to fly DY than are flying the legacies. And it's not just because of price, the product is MILES ahead of the US3 and EU3.

...lol, not one thing you just said is actually factual.

Suit yourself.

LupineChemist wrote:

I'm all for competition, though I guess I don't find the fares on the legacies that outrageous. I regularly fly IB TATL for 400€ r/t.

But I just don't get where they keep getting money. I think it will probably be worse for consumers but I really see them failing in spectacular fashion and just ceasing operations without much warning.

You think these 400€ fares existed before the competition from Norwegian and WOW?

keitherson wrote:

LupineChemist wrote:

I'm all for competition, though I guess I don't find the fares on the legacies that outrageous. I regularly fly IB TATL for 400€ r/t.

But I just don't get where they keep getting money. I think it will probably be worse for consumers but I really see them failing in spectacular fashion and just ceasing operations without much warning.

You think these 400€ fares existed before the competition from Norwegian and WOW?

Considering I've been paying that for MAD-JFK for years and Norwegian doesn't start flying it until next summer....yes I do.

Lets come back here his time next year and see if DY exist in their current form or have hit the rocks. I personally think they will be here and will have expanded. I have not flown them myself yet but if the numbers are right when I go to NY in September then I will give them a go. I know a number of people that have flown them and been really impressed. Word and mouth and all that is a great form of advertising.....time will tell.

neomax wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

neomax wrote:

Like it or not, more people are choosing to fly DY than are flying the legacies. And it's not just because of price, the product is MILES ahead of the US3 and EU3.

...lol, not one thing you just said is actually factual.

Suit yourself.

LAX772LR is right. For example BA has more services a day to East coast US cities than what Norwegian has widebody aircraft. The onboard product maybe better but saying more people are choosing to fly DY than the legacies is a myth

BAorNoWay wrote:

Would love to hear other a.netters opinions.

Due to fast expansion, costs will further balloon. Last year Norwegian needed to sell some assets to balance the sheet. Question is how long can this be sustained?

A quick Google of return fares between London and Boston, for the 6th February 2018. On Norwegian the Y fare on a brand new B789 is £220 return.

London (all airports) to Boston, USA (BOS)

American American 7h 40m from £2,039
Finnair Finnair 7h 40m from £2,039
Iberia Iberia 7h 40m from £2,039
British Airways British Airways 7h 40m from £2,039
KLM KLM 8h 5m from £2,039
Delta Delta 8h 5m from £2,039
Virgin Atlantic Virgin Atlantic 8h 5m from £2,039
Air France Air France 8h 5m from £2,054

Connecting
Aer Lingus Aer Lingus 10h 25m+ from £409
Tap Air Portugal Tap Air Portugal 16h 45m+ from £644
Other airlines Other airlines 7h 40m+ from £712

I have flown DY on JFK-PTP, JFK-FDF and DBV-MAD. On FDF and PTP there was just no viable competition (the times and prices are horrendous) and I was thus prepared to pay USD 400 for my trip. On DBV-MAD, there was some competition but the times for DY worked better (luck) and the price was about $50 (so almost free).

On all flights I had professional crew, although not too friendly, decent food, certainly no worse than what the US3 would offer, the same seat a US3 would offer, on-time flights and OK WiFi (for free, not complaining if it goes slow). And this was on their 737s.

I usually fly legacy TATL because I fly mostly business, but this might change, I will try the premium product at some point and compare it to what the legacies offer. I usually fly NYC-PAR, and on that line they would be the only ones offering the 787 I think.

uta999 wrote:

A quick Google of return fares between London and Boston, for the 6th February 2018. On Norwegian the Y fare on a brand new B789 is £220 return.

London (all airports) to Boston, USA (BOS)

American American 7h 40m from £2,039
Finnair Finnair 7h 40m from £2,039

Try return fares for a trip including sunday and you will a very different picture.
Raising the big question : if you are flying for business, will you travel on Norwegian ?

I think that it's only matter of time, when this ponzi collapse. This year they has to find new money about 20 billion NOK for new planes, and their 2017 FY result is going to be under water. They made decent job with SH, but LH is pushing them away.

SteelChair wrote:

How many times has this been tried......starting with Laker.....and these North Atlantic LCCs always fail in the end. The flag of convenience thingy is a new twist though.

Yes but Laker had to fill wide bodies DY doesn't and the disparity between Laker's fares and legacy fares was not that great. People are tired of paying $1500 + fares to get to Europe when in the not to distant past they were paying $600. Reliability will but what makes or breaks DY and WW

LupineChemist wrote:

keitherson wrote:

LupineChemist wrote:

I'm all for competition, though I guess I don't find the fares on the legacies that outrageous. I regularly fly IB TATL for 400€ r/t.

But I just don't get where they keep getting money. I think it will probably be worse for consumers but I really see them failing in spectacular fashion and just ceasing operations without much warning.

You think these 400€ fares existed before the competition from Norwegian and WOW?

Considering I've been paying that for MAD-JFK for years and Norwegian doesn't start flying it until next summer....yes I do.

And some of the posters act like dy is the only low cost service there is when fi have a far more profound affect on lowering tatl service.

If anything, fi and ww make dy tatl operation unprofitable. Dy can keep loosing money and selling its stake in Norwegian bank to stay afloat. But this entire expand into profitability stuff doesn't work.

The minute JetBlue enters tatl market, no one will pay for dy premium seats on Boston and NYC routes.

keitherson wrote:

LupineChemist wrote:

I'm all for competition, though I guess I don't find the fares on the legacies that outrageous. I regularly fly IB TATL for 400€ r/t.

But I just don't get where they keep getting money. I think it will probably be worse for consumers but I really see them failing in spectacular fashion and just ceasing operations without much warning.

You think these 400€ fares existed before the competition from Norwegian and WOW?

I can confirm they did exist 400-450 for years, including checked baggage, meal and blanket. Oh disruptive LCCs come to me! No, not really...

uta999 wrote:

KLM KLM 8h 5m from £2,039
Delta Delta 8h 5m from £2,039

According to the KLM website this flight in Y costs just 308 GBP.

uta999 wrote:

A quick Google of return fares between London and Boston, for the 6th February 2018. On Norwegian the Y fare on a brand new B789 is £220 return.

London (all airports) to Boston, USA (BOS)

American American 7h 40m from £2,039
Finnair Finnair 7h 40m from £2,039
Iberia Iberia 7h 40m from £2,039
British Airways British Airways 7h 40m from £2,039
KLM KLM 8h 5m from £2,039
Delta Delta 8h 5m from £2,039
Virgin Atlantic Virgin Atlantic 8h 5m from £2,039
Air France Air France 8h 5m from £2,054

Connecting
Aer Lingus Aer Lingus 10h 25m+ from £409
Tap Air Portugal Tap Air Portugal 16h 45m+ from £644
Other airlines Other airlines 7h 40m+ from £712

You are lying, doing propaganda or just immensely wrong?

The fact that those prices are wrong makes me think that you copy pasted the same price for all the airlines, or that you just need to use an actual price checking.
Tip: At least 3-4 of those combinations for Feb 6th are currently offered for less than 400-500 GBP (Full Y tariff) one-way.

Also, when you see a high tariff, do the healthy exercise to try to book a Return ticket with a randon fly back date instead a One-Way one.

tphuang wrote:

If anything, fi and ww make dy tatl operation unprofitable. Dy can keep loosing money and selling its stake in Norwegian bank to stay afloat. But this entire expand into profitability stuff doesn't work.

DY owns about 30 million shares of Norwegian Bank and its worth about 3 billion NOK. DY doesn't stay afloat By this, they lose 3 billion in three months.

By end 2018, Norwegian will have 32 Boeing 787's ...

alan3 wrote:

This airline has got to be a bubble waiting to burst. I don't see how this is sustainable, but the growth is incredible. At this rate I wouldn't be surprised to see a Norwegian Papua New Guinea sometime soon.

I don't know how old you are but I was around when B6 (then named "New Air"), ordered 75 A320's right off the bat and was bleeding money for the first 5-6 years.
I was also around to see a relatively small airline (SQ) order 50 747-400's and more recently an even smaller airline in the Gulf (EK) become the largest A380 operator in the World. I've also seen and flown with once hugely successful airlines that went bankrupt, such as Swissair, TWA, and Sabena, and seen airlines that were sure candidates to disappear, make a come-back. My point is, I've seen enough to stop questioning the durability of airlines

Jayafe wrote:

uta999 wrote:

A quick Google of return fares between London and Boston, for the 6th February 2018. On Norwegian the Y fare on a brand new B789 is £220 return.

London (all airports) to Boston, USA (BOS)

American American 7h 40m from £2,039
Finnair Finnair 7h 40m from £2,039
Iberia Iberia 7h 40m from £2,039
British Airways British Airways 7h 40m from £2,039
KLM KLM 8h 5m from £2,039
Delta Delta 8h 5m from £2,039
Virgin Atlantic Virgin Atlantic 8h 5m from £2,039
Air France Air France 8h 5m from £2,054

Connecting
Aer Lingus Aer Lingus 10h 25m+ from £409
Tap Air Portugal Tap Air Portugal 16h 45m+ from £644


Other airlines Other airlines 7h 40m+ from £712

You are lying, doing propaganda or just immensely wrong?

The fact that those prices are wrong makes me think that you copy pasted the same price for all the airlines, or that you just need to use an actual price checking.
Tip: At least 3-4 of those combinations for Feb 6th are currently offered for less than 400-500 GBP (Full Y tariff) one-way.

Also, when you see a high tariff, do the healthy exercise to try to book a Return ticket with a randon fly back date instead a One-Way one.

I am simply quoting Google "London to Boston return"

https://www.google.co.uk/search?safe=ac ... iN8_rQXDD0

But a wrong comparison non the less!

They just announced new CFO, which is not a new route lol

https://finchannel.com/tourism-and-trav ... management

airbazar wrote:

alan3 wrote:

This airline has got to be a bubble waiting to burst. I don't see how this is sustainable, but the growth is incredible. At this rate I wouldn't be surprised to see a Norwegian Papua New Guinea sometime soon.

I don't know how old you are but I was around when B6 (then named "New Air"), ordered 75 A320's right off the bat and was bleeding money for the first 5-6 years.
I was also around to see a relatively small airline (SQ) order 50 747-400's and more recently an even smaller airline in the Gulf (EK) become the largest A380 operator in the World. I've also seen and flown with once hugely successful airlines that went bankrupt, such as Swissair, TWA, and Sabena, and seen airlines that were sure candidates to disappear, make a come-back. My point is, I've seen enough to stop questioning the durability of airlines

And I was around when Emirates started with a Boeing 727-200 and an Airbus A300.

The only reason people are flying DY across the Atlantic is because of price. Don't kid yourself otherwise. Being from NYC I personally have never found DY to be significantly cheaper than legacies especially when considering bag fees as well.

I had heard that DY plans to increase their presence in SEA with a new route (I think it may be Oslo) in the summer of 2018. But I haven't heard anything lately and it's not in the press release in this thread.