RainerBoeing777
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Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:28 pm

What will be the next airlines to order the new Boeing 777x?
I see great potential in Air France - KLM, British Airways, United Airlines, Korean Air, Eva Airways & Thai Airways
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qf789
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:34 pm

Qantas is due to decide this year on the 778 vs A359ULR and think it will go the way of the 778

Air New Zealand is another airline that may order the 778 as well
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rotating14
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:37 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
What will be the next airlines to order the new Boeing 777x?
I see great potential in Air France - KLM, British Airways, United Airlines, Korean Air, Eva Airways & Thai Airways



The world really isn't in a hurry to snap up these planes since the 77W replacement cycle is still not on the horizon. I believe that the oldest 77W, with AF I believe, was delivered in 2004, 2005. A 13 year old 77W is still a good money maker for airlines that have kept them in good condition.
 
StTim
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:54 pm

I am not as hopeful that there will be 777X ordered in the near future.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:58 pm

StTim wrote:
I am not as hopeful that there will be 777X ordered in the near future.


Most likely won't. And still to see in a distant future.
 
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RayChuang
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:02 pm

Do not expect a rush of 777-8 and 777-9 orders until after 2020, when the 777-300ER replacement cycle begins. I think Airbus is thinking that way also, hence the emphasis on A350XWB-900 sales first.
 
jfk777
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:07 pm

The 77W replacement cycle will be a long time coming since many were delivered in the last 7 years. The most interesting market for the 777-9 could be the A380 replacement market not the 77W replacements. 10 years from now will BA, LH, Singapore, Qantas, AF or Korean need a plane bigger then the 777-9 ? The 777-9 will become the biggest widely used airplane, the era of anything bigger is over.
 
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Boeing778X
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:16 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
What will be the next airlines to order the new Boeing 777x?
I see great potential in Air France - KLM, British Airways, United Airlines, Korean Air, Eva Airways & Thai Airways


We’ve discussed in depth who could probably operate it, and most of who you listed are prime 777X operators.

What I think you’ll see happen is orders pick up after EIS, similar to what happened with the 77W. Right now, the 777X is in a great position, and Boeing thinks so too.

Qantas might be the next order. If it goes through, Iran Air will get it. There’s a few dozen potential 777X airlines.
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Arion640
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:28 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
What will be the next airlines to order the new Boeing 777x?
I see great potential in Air France - KLM, British Airways, United Airlines, Korean Air, Eva Airways & Thai Airways


Quite a few have relatively new 77W fleets, BA, KLM, UA.

I personally think the 777X is a bit ahead of it's time. Boeing got pressured into it by the ME3 and possibly Qantas for it's ULR aircraft.
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Bricktop
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:50 pm

Arion640 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
What will be the next airlines to order the new Boeing 777x?
I see great potential in Air France - KLM, British Airways, United Airlines, Korean Air, Eva Airways & Thai Airways


Quite a few have relatively new 77W fleets, BA, KLM, UA.

I personally think the 777X is a bit ahead of it's time. Boeing got pressured into it by the ME3 and possibly Qantas for it's ULR aircraft.

IMO, Boeing got pressured into it by the A359. The 77W was once a cash cow, but the A359 is much more efficient. Boeing did a good job riding it as long as they did.
 
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:04 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
What will be the next airlines to order the new Boeing 777x?
I see great potential in Air France - KLM, British Airways, United Airlines, Korean Air, Eva Airways & Thai Airways


Quite a few have relatively new 77W fleets, BA, KLM, UA.

I personally think the 777X is a bit ahead of it's time. Boeing got pressured into it by the ME3 and possibly Qantas for it's ULR aircraft.

IMO, Boeing got pressured into it by the A359. The 77W was once a cash cow, but the A359 is much more efficient. Boeing did a good job riding it as long as they did.


Thats very true - but I don't see the 778 as an A359 replacement or alternative. The 777X is not selling like the A359 is netheir.

The 77W was very successful and perhaps Boeing thought the X would go the same way.
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whywhyzee
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:45 pm

Air Canada almost certainly will take a fair number of 777-9's, but their 77W fleet is fairly new, I can't see any real need to take any until 2030 or so, barring growth, but that would heavily fragment their delivery schedule which would be rather inefficient.
 
Sooner787
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:43 pm

If I were an airlines CEO, I'd wait until the flight test program is well along and Boeing could present
some real world numbers. Besides, first few years of production is sold out, so no real hurry to
get in line right now.

And as others have mentioned, the 77W fleet is still rather young.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:52 pm

jfk777 wrote:
The 777-9 will become the biggest widely used airplane, the era of anything bigger is over.


What do you mean by this statement? How many do you think will be sold in the next 20 years or so?
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:59 pm

Dutchy wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
The 777-9 will become the biggest widely used airplane, the era of anything bigger is over.


What do you mean by this statement? How many do you think will be sold in the next 20 years or so?


I think he means the 779's biggest market will be A380 replacements. In fact, I'm betting EK uses their 779's
to replace their 380 fleet on a frame by frame basis.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:08 pm

I think the 779 will be a 77W and A380 replacement down the road. Very early in the replacement cycle for both aircraft.
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:45 pm

Arion640 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
What will be the next airlines to order the new Boeing 777x?
I see great potential in Air France - KLM, British Airways, United Airlines, Korean Air, Eva Airways & Thai Airways


Quite a few have relatively new 77W fleets, BA, KLM, UA.

I personally think the 777X is a bit ahead of it's time. Boeing got pressured into it by the ME3 and possibly Qantas for it's ULR aircraft.

KLM can replace its B77E with B77W, thus giving space to the Boeing 777-9x for its high density missions of Southeast Asia such as Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Taipei, Singapore among others, could opt for the B777-8X version for direct flights toDenpasar & Jakarta and even direct flights to Australia

British Airways, needs to replace its fleet of B744 and B77E, the B777X family is ideal for this to replace the traveling aircrafts, in this way can meet the high density missions of London Heathrow such as Vancouver, Toronto, Johannesburg, Hong Kong, Chicago, Boston, Miami, Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco among others, and the Boeing 777-8X to fulfill direct flights to Australia

United Airlines needs to replace part of its Boeing 777-200ER and can be replaced by B77W, so the high density destinations from Asia to San Francisco, such as Taipei, Beijing, Shanghai, Tokyo, Seoul and Hong Kong are ideal to be operated by the Boeing 777-9X, and with the Boeing 777-8X direct flights to Australia from Washington, Newark, Chicago and Denver
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StTim
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:55 pm

I think BA have defined the A350-1000 as the replacement for at least the bulk of the remaining 747-400's
 
Arion640
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:02 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
What will be the next airlines to order the new Boeing 777x?
I see great potential in Air France - KLM, British Airways, United Airlines, Korean Air, Eva Airways & Thai Airways


Quite a few have relatively new 77W fleets, BA, KLM, UA.

I personally think the 777X is a bit ahead of it's time. Boeing got pressured into it by the ME3 and possibly Qantas for it's ULR aircraft.

KLM can replace its B77E with B77W, thus giving space to the Boeing 777-9x for its high density missions of Southeast Asia such as Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Taipei, Singapore among others, could opt for the B777-8X version for direct flights toDenpasar & Jakarta and even direct flights to Australia

British Airways, needs to replace its fleet of B744 and B77E, the B777X family is ideal for this to replace the traveling aircrafts, in this way can meet the high density missions of London Heathrow such as Vancouver, Toronto, Johannesburg, Hong Kong, Chicago, Boston, Miami, Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco among others, and the Boeing 777-8X to fulfill direct flights to Australia

United Airlines needs to replace part of its Boeing 777-200ER and can be replaced by B77W, so the high density destinations from Asia to San Francisco, such as Taipei, Beijing, Shanghai, Tokyo, Seoul and Hong Kong are ideal to be operated by the Boeing 777-9X, and with the Boeing 777-8X direct flights to Australia from Washington, Newark, Chicago and Denver


Or KLM could order the A350 like it's sister airline as this will be a drive torwards commonality. I.e lower maintenance costs. We could see the 777X in the future mind at KLM and AF I won't deny.

BA are going for the A350 and have options on top of the 18 on order. They also have the 78J on order. This is the 747 replacement along with extra A380's (2-4). 77E will see 30 years of service life - no need to worry about this yet. I'm convinced we will never see the 777X at IAG. I don't think we'll ever see non stop SYD at BA. The SIN-SYD sector does well as a stand alone flight as well as the LHR-SIN.

United maybe but not for a while. Plenty of A350's about to come online. I don't think United want a 779 sized plane netheir, the 789 seems to do the longer missions well with the 787-10 also coming for them.
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T54A
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:05 pm

SAA will have to replace the A346’s with something that has capacity, range and good hot n’ high performance
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Andy33
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:21 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
What will be the next airlines to order the new Boeing 777x?
I see great potential in Air France - KLM, British Airways, United Airlines, Korean Air, Eva Airways & Thai Airways


British Airways, needs to replace its fleet of B744 and B77E, the B777X family is ideal for this to replace the traveling aircrafts, in this way can meet the high density missions of London Heathrow such as Vancouver, Toronto, Johannesburg, Hong Kong, Chicago, Boston, Miami, Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco among others, and the Boeing 777-8X to fulfill direct flights to Australia


BA actually publishes its fleet plan on a rolling five year basis, most recently in November 2017. At that point they planned on all but 12 744s having left the fleet by December 2022. Replacements, which have been on order for some time, are a mixture of A350-1000 and 787-10, there's no way 779s would have been available in time.
The replacements for the final 12 744s, which will all be gone by February 2024, have yet to be ordered. Now could Boeing actually fulfil an order for 12 779s, all to be delivered during 2023, given other commitments? If not, expect more A350s, and just possibly more 787-10s as well. IAG/BA have lots of options for A350s, and 6 remaining options for 787s.

The 77E replacement programme won't start until 2027, when the oldest reach the age of 30, so we'll have to wait for any order.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:23 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
KLM can replace its B77E with B77W, thus giving space to the Boeing 777-9x for its high density missions of Southeast Asia such as Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Taipei, Singapore among others, could opt for the B777-8X version for direct flights toDenpasar & Jakarta and even direct flights to Australia


Doubt it. They are getting the 787-9, 787-10 and A350-900, all of which are perfectly sized as 777-200 replacements.

Denpasar and Jakarta are already well within range of current KLM types as well as the new types they have on order, so the 777-8 is not needed for those destinations.

Would they really invest in a dedicated subfleet for Australia only? I really can't see it happening. That leaves just the potential future 777-300ER replacement in 10+ years, but that could fall out in favour of the A350-1000 too.


RainerBoeing777 wrote:
British Airways, needs to replace its fleet of B744 and B77E, the B777X family is ideal for this to replace the traveling aircrafts, in this way can meet the high density missions of London Heathrow such as Vancouver, Toronto, Johannesburg, Hong Kong, Chicago, Boston, Miami, Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco among others, and the Boeing 777-8X to fulfill direct flights to Australia


The British Airways 747 replacement is already accounted for.

They have A380s for high density routes, and have stated that they are interested in growing the A380 fleet with second hand aircraft.

Sure, they could add the 777-8X for Australia only, but would they really invest in a separate type for one market only?

The 777-9X is a poor replacement for the 777-200ER, way too big. The 777-8X is way too heavy. Expect more 787s and/or A350s for this. That leaves just the potential future 777-300ER replacement in 10+ years, but that could fall out in favour of the A350-1000 too.

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
United Airlines needs to replace part of its Boeing 777-200ER and can be replaced by B77W, so the high density destinations from Asia to San Francisco, such as Taipei, Beijing, Shanghai, Tokyo, Seoul and Hong Kong are ideal to be operated by the Boeing 777-9X, and with the Boeing 777-8X direct flights to Australia from Washington, Newark, Chicago and Denver


United is getting 45 A350-900s and 14 787-10s. It seems pretty certain at this point that they decided that A350s and 787s are better 777-200 replacements. It could be a contender to replace the 777-300ERs at some point in 10+ years, but that could fall out in favour of the A350-1000 too.


IMHO, you found 3 quite unlikely airlines here. I would look more at current operators of 747s, 777-200LRs and older 777-300s that haven't made a clear replacement decision yet. I think Korean Airlines, Thai, Pakistan International, Saudi, El Al and Air India could all be likely customers.
 
mig17
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:43 pm

Korean Air, Eva Airways and Qantas, why not.
Air France - KLM, not impossible, but unlikely if more A350 comes along before.
British Airways, United Airlines and Thai Airways, not a chance. They are gone to 787/A350.
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LAX772LR
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:55 pm

Arion640 wrote:
The 77W was very successful and perhaps Boeing thought the X would go the same way.

And for all you, we, they, or anyone else knows.... it might. Or not.

We're talking about airframes that won't even debut until a half-decade from now. No metal/plastic has even been cut, and you're attempting to forecast what a 20yr+ sales life will be, based on a replacement cycle that hasn't even started.

Somewhat ridiculous, to be honest.


mig17 wrote:
British Airways, United Airlines and Thai Airways, not a chance. They are gone to 787/A350.

There's essentially no overlap between the 77X and the 787; and we don't know how carriers will treat the A35K vs 779... for all we know, they could fit together just as well as the A330 and 777 did; an unlikely combination that many airlines ended up choosing.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
mig17
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:04 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
The 77W was very successful and perhaps Boeing thought the X would go the same way.

And for all you, we, they, or anyone else knows.... it might. Or not.

We're talking about airframes that won't even debut until a half-decade from now. No metal/plastic has even been cut, and you're attempting to forecast what a 20yr+ sales life will be, based on a replacement cycle that hasn't even started.

Somewhat ridiculous, to be honest.


mig17 wrote:
British Airways, United Airlines and Thai Airways, not a chance. They are gone to 787/A350.

There's essentially no overlap between the 77X and the 787; and we don't know how carriers will treat the A35K vs 779... for all we know, they could fit together just as well as the A330 and 777 did; an unlikely combination that many airlines ended up choosing.

The 777-X is to the A350 what the A330NEO is to the 787. A direct market competitor with an advantage for the newer generation (A350/787). Airlines with 787 will not need A330NEO and airlines with A350 will not need 77X. The 77X buniness case is to equiped airlines like Eva Air who have a big curent 777 fleet and not yet ordered any A350. The same thing is happening with Delta and the A330NEO against the 787.
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mig17
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:33 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
mig17 wrote:
Korean Air, Eva Airways and Qantas, why not.
Air France - KLM, not impossible, but unlikely if more A350 comes along before.
British Airways, United Airlines and Thai Airways, not a chance. They are gone to 787/A350.


I think Thai Airways needs Boeing 777-9X, there are high demand destinations like Munich, Zurich and Scandinavia where capacity is needed

British Airways needs a real Jumbo for its high-demand destinations and the Boeing 777X is the key

British Airways has lots of A35K on order for that and unless Thai wants to have several small fleets of everything, they will go for A35K too if they need the capacity.
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RainerBoeing777
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:35 pm

mig17 wrote:
Korean Air, Eva Airways and Qantas, why not.
Air France - KLM, not impossible, but unlikely if more A350 comes along before.
British Airways, United Airlines and Thai Airways, not a chance. They are gone to 787/A350.


I think Thai Airways needs Boeing 777-9X, there are high demand destinations like Munich, Zurich and Scandinavia where capacity is needed

British Airways needs a real Jumbo for its high-demand destinations and the Boeing 777X is the key
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RainerBoeing777
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:45 pm

VSMUT wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
KLM can replace its B77E with B77W, thus giving space to the Boeing 777-9x for its high density missions of Southeast Asia such as Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Taipei, Singapore among others, could opt for the B777-8X version for direct flights toDenpasar & Jakarta and even direct flights to Australia


Doubt it. They are getting the 787-9, 787-10 and A350-900, all of which are perfectly sized as 777-200 replacements.

Denpasar and Jakarta are already well within range of current KLM types as well as the new types they have on order, so the 777-8 is not needed for those destinations.

Would they really invest in a dedicated subfleet for Australia only? I really can't see it happening. That leaves just the potential future 777-300ER replacement in 10+ years, but that could fall out in favour of the A350-1000 too.


RainerBoeing777 wrote:
British Airways, needs to replace its fleet of B744 and B77E, the B777X family is ideal for this to replace the traveling aircrafts, in this way can meet the high density missions of London Heathrow such as Vancouver, Toronto, Johannesburg, Hong Kong, Chicago, Boston, Miami, Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco among others, and the Boeing 777-8X to fulfill direct flights to Australia


The British Airways 747 replacement is already accounted for.

They have A380s for high density routes, and have stated that they are interested in growing the A380 fleet with second hand aircraft.

Sure, they could add the 777-8X for Australia only, but would they really invest in a separate type for one market only?

The 777-9X is a poor replacement for the 777-200ER, way too big. The 777-8X is way too heavy. Expect more 787s and/or A350s for this. That leaves just the potential future 777-300ER replacement in 10+ years, but that could fall out in favour of the A350-1000 too.

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
United Airlines needs to replace part of its Boeing 777-200ER and can be replaced by B77W, so the high density destinations from Asia to San Francisco, such as Taipei, Beijing, Shanghai, Tokyo, Seoul and Hong Kong are ideal to be operated by the Boeing 777-9X, and with the Boeing 777-8X direct flights to Australia from Washington, Newark, Chicago and Denver


United is getting 45 A350-900s and 14 787-10s. It seems pretty certain at this point that they decided that A350s and 787s are better 777-200 replacements. It could be a contender to replace the 777-300ERs at some point in 10+ years, but that could fall out in favour of the A350-1000 too.


IMHO, you found 3 quite unlikely airlines here. I would look more at current operators of 747s, 777-200LRs and older 777-300s that haven't made a clear replacement decision yet. I think Korean Airlines, Thai, Pakistan International, Saudi, El Al and Air India could all be likely customers.


Indonesia was a Dutch colony, relations between Indonesia and the Netherlands are important, even Garuda Indonesia its main market in Europe is Amsterdam, the demand is very large and if it needs capacity the Boeing 777-8X could fly without problems Amsterdam - Jakarta - Depansar, even may include Surabaya
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
jayunited
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:47 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
United Airlines needs to replace part of its Boeing 777-200ER and can be replaced by B77W, so the high density destinations from Asia to San Francisco, such as Taipei, Beijing, Shanghai, Tokyo, Seoul and Hong Kong are ideal to be operated by the Boeing 777-9X, and with the Boeing 777-8X direct flights to Australia from Washington, Newark, Chicago and Denver


As much as I would like to agree with you I don't think UA will order the 777-8X/9X. My reasoning for my opinion is because UA has decided the A359 will replace most of our 77E's, so if in the future UA does decide to launch flights to Australia, New Zealand and/or Singapore from ORD, EWR, I think UA would probably just order the A359ULH. High density routes that require more capacity I think UA would order more 787-10's for mid range missions or order the A350-1000 for longer range missions.
I'm a huge fan of the 777 it is my second favorite aircraft after 747, but if we are going to be realistic I don't see the 777X in UA future simply because the A359/ULH/1000 can cover the same missions that the 777-8X/9X can cover and correct me if I'm wrong but the A350 should be more fuel efficient than the 777X. If the A350 in all its variations is more fuel efficient than the 777X I can see UA going for fuel efficiency and fleet commonality, which means 20-25 years from now when the 77W's are retired UA will bid farewell to the Boeing 777.
 
Arion640
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:52 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
The 77W was very successful and perhaps Boeing thought the X would go the same way.

And for all you, we, they, or anyone else knows.... it might. Or not.

We're talking about airframes that won't even debut until a half-decade from now. No metal/plastic has even been cut, and you're attempting to forecast what a 20yr+ sales life will be, based on a replacement cycle that hasn't even started.

Somewhat ridiculous, to be honest.


mig17 wrote:
British Airways, United Airlines and Thai Airways, not a chance. They are gone to 787/A350.

There's essentially no overlap between the 77X and the 787; and we don't know how carriers will treat the A35K vs 779... for all we know, they could fit together just as well as the A330 and 777 did; an unlikely combination that many airlines ended up choosing.



No - the point I was trying to make was Boeing seemed like they thought it was going to be the next big thing like the 77W was, but like I have previously mentioned on here Boeing was pressured into launching it by the ME3 - it's only them + LH who are really driving it.

I still think a few more years could of been squeezed out of it. It hasn't seen a 20 year +sales lifecycle yet which you suggested may be a timeframe for the 777X.
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jfk777
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:33 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
The 777-9 will become the biggest widely used airplane, the era of anything bigger is over.


What do you mean by this statement? How many do you think will be sold in the next 20 years or so?


I think he means the 779's biggest market will be A380 replacements. In fact, I'm betting EK uses their 779's
to replace their 380 fleet on a frame by frame basis.



The A380 replacement market is only part of the 777-9 market. The biggest market is the replacement of older 777 , A340-600 and 744. The biggest long haul market is going to be the medium haul not the ultra long haul, the 797 will sell many more planes then the 777 does. So many 767 are still being used over the Atlantic where a 787 or 777 is just too much airplane for. That is the much more interesting market for Boeing.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:39 pm

Why the focus on replacement?

Half of aircraft sales are for growth, half are for replacement.


I'll take the example of JFK, LHR, CDG, BOS, LAX, SFO, DEL, AMS, HKG, or FRA. If any we're to gain another runway and terminal space designed for connecting, all would need larger aircraft, including the 779 as well as a multitude of narrowbody aircraft for connections.

For Asia,there will be so much growth, they will need the aircraft with the lowest CASM and fuel burn per passenger.

I personally agree with others that airlines will wait for flight test data. Boeing/GE will have to get it right. But I see the right technologies going into the 777X:
1. Folding wingtips that reduce the needed takeoff runway (allowing engines to be better optimized for cruise) while maximizing that expensive airport real estate).
2. Greater wing area allowing cruise at lower density air (this more than offsets the increased wet area).
3. Incredibly optimized engines (CMCs, more cooling loops to tune cruise fuel burn, variable cycle, electrical actuators for more precise control, and very high pressure ratios). Everything but a GTF...

I expect the A350 to do well. For trunk routes, the 779 will have the lowest CASM...

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JamesCousins
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:46 pm

jfk777 wrote:
The 77W replacement cycle will be a long time coming since many were delivered in the last 7 years. The most interesting market for the 777-9 could be the A380 replacement market not the 77W replacements. 10 years from now will BA, LH, Singapore, Qantas, AF or Korean need a plane bigger then the 777-9 ? The 777-9 will become the biggest widely used airplane, the era of anything bigger is over.


I can't see BA ordering A380 replacements 10 years from now, they have an average age of 3.8 years and if the LHR slots and 747 retirement schedule are anything to by the 380 should see 25 years with BA, Singapore perhaps a similar story given their new 380 deliveries. That being said I think airlines will need a VLA aircraft, bigger than that 77-9 for some routes. I think that's another reason Airbus are trying to keep the 380 production line open foreseeably, they see a growing market for the A380 in 10, 15, even 20 years time...
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:51 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

What do you mean by this statement? How many do you think will be sold in the next 20 years or so?


I think he means the 779's biggest market will be A380 replacements. In fact, I'm betting EK uses their 779's
to replace their 380 fleet on a frame by frame basis.



The A380 replacement market is only part of the 777-9 market. The biggest market is the replacement of older 777 , A340-600 and 744. The biggest long haul market is going to be the medium haul not the ultra long haul, the 797 will sell many more planes then the 777 does. So many 767 are still being used over the Atlantic where a 787 or 777 is just too much airplane for. That is the much more interesting market for Boeing.


I don't see many future 777-9 orders intended to replace the A346 and 744. Airlines seem to be trying to ditch their A346's like a game of hot potato and 744 retirement plans are already into place. I do agree though that a possible 797 should garner more orders than the 777 and that a 767-replacement is needed, particularly for the US 3 who seem to love that AC. The other future I see though is the upsizing and downsizing of 767 routes to the 321neo and 788 appropriately, there's only so long left in many of the 767s and only so long airlines will wait for a possible 797...
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Dutchy
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:01 pm

jfk777 wrote:
The A380 replacement market is only part of the 777-9 market. The biggest market is the replacement of older 777 , A340-600 and 744. The biggest long haul market is going to be the medium haul not the ultra long haul, the 797 will sell many more planes then the 777 does. So many 767 are still being used over the Atlantic where a 787 or 777 is just too much airplane for. That is the much more interesting market for Boeing.


I partly agree with you. I think the 779 (778 will be sold in low numbers) market wiil mostly consist of 77W replacement, most 744 will be gone by 2020, 77E/A346 will be replaced with 78X/A35X or proposed A350-11. And it will depend on Airbus if they will NEO the A380, if not I see a market for around 700, if yes I see the market for around 400-500.
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scbriml
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:05 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
I think Thai Airways needs Boeing 777-9X, there are high demand destinations like Munich, Zurich and Scandinavia where capacity is needed


High demand yes, but low (borderline very low) yield. That's why their second LHR flight is now operated by A359 - less seats and significantly lower operating costs will help to push up yields.

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
British Airways needs a real Jumbo for its high-demand destinations and the Boeing 777X is the key


BA already has a young fleet of A380s, that's their "real jumbo" for high-demand destinations for the next 20+ years. They also have the A350-1000 coming and a shedload of A350 options. I don't see the need for the 779 at BA and they have no routes that require the 778.
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Continental767
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:11 pm

I could see premium heavy 779s for AA's premium routes to London, Hong Kong, and places in South America. The 779 wouldn't be much of a capacity jump from their current premium heavy 77Ws.
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SamTheGeek
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:31 pm

I think the big market we haven't seen yet will be Chinese airlines — they're going to need lots of seat capacity both domestically and internationally, and they're going to want more seats than the A350 family can deliver. Frankly, any airline that needs to put more than 350 passengers in a single slot will be buying the 777X — the A380 and 748 are clearly (sadly) not going to be in production past the end of next decade.
 
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Boeing778X
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:36 pm

Continental767 wrote:
I could see premium heavy 779s for AA's premium routes to London, Hong Kong, and places in South America. The 779 wouldn't be much of a capacity jump from their current premium heavy 77Ws.


Agreed. They could supplement the 777-300ERs and expand those markets further, as well as maybe replace a couple 77Es. But there really isn’t that big of a capacity jump, especially with AAs layout.

It’ll be a few years though, but AA definitely is a good 777X potential.
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AirbusA322
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:47 am

Virgin will be needing to move the 77W fleet on not too far away. 07/08 Builds from memory.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:04 am

AirbusA322 wrote:
Virgin will be needing to move the 77W fleet on not too far away. 07/08 Builds from memory.


They are 09/10 builds.
 
lutfi
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:23 am

It's going to be what, 30 or so seats more than a 777-300 or A35K? CX bought both as 779 will have better payload to the East Coast, can't imagine 8% or so more seats is worth a new fleet type

CX replacement looks to be: A340 & some A330 by A359. Three class B773ER by A35K, Four class B773ER by B779X.
 
Planeyguy
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:58 am

What about Vietnam Airlines?
 
Planeyguy
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:03 am

Also, is there a Boeing aircraft that is replacing the 777-200 or is that area only covered by the A350?
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:23 am

Planeyguy wrote:
Also, is there a Boeing aircraft that is replacing the 777-200 or is that area only covered by the A350?


They already make one: 787-9.
 
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qf789
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:28 am

ikolkyo wrote:
AirbusA322 wrote:
Virgin will be needing to move the 77W fleet on not too far away. 07/08 Builds from memory.


They are 09/10 builds.


I presume you mean Virgin Australia, what they need to do is to have 1 widebody type, either the 787 or A350 to replace A332's and 77W's, given they only have 5 77W's and 6 A332s a single widebody type would be better, currently they do not know what to do with the A332's, have been talking about flying to China for 2 years now and it will be another year before a route is added there, they definitely do not need the 777X, 789 or A359 would be the best fit IMO
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Eyad89
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:27 am

LAX772LR wrote:

for all we know, they could fit together just as well as the A330 and 777 did; an unlikely combination that many airlines ended up choosing.



Many airlines ordered both of 777 and A330 for the superior range that 777 offers. If A330 had similar range capabilities as 777 (like 787 now), then I reckon there would have been fewer airlines operating both 777 and A330 at once.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:32 am

mig17 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
There's essentially no overlap between the 77X and the 787; and we don't know how carriers will treat the A35K vs 779... for all we know, they could fit together just as well as the A330 and 777 did; an unlikely combination that many airlines ended up choosing.

The 777-X is to the A350 what the A330NEO is to the 787. A direct market competitor with an advantage for the newer generation (A350/787).

It could easily be argued that the A350 and 779 aren't direct market competitors.

Boeing couldn't have taken a 30yr-old platform and hoped to compete directly 1on1 with technology that first entered service two years ago. The models are slotted in between each other to address some parts of the same market, but other parts individually: the 779's sales compete with the A380 just as much as they do the A35K.



Arion640 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
The 77W was very successful and perhaps Boeing thought the X would go the same way.

And for all you, we, they, or anyone else knows.... it might. Or not.

No - the point I was trying to make was Boeing seemed like they thought it was going to be the next big thing like the 77W was, but like I have previously mentioned on here Boeing was pressured into launching it by the ME3 - it's only them + LH who are really driving it.

And, like I just said above... you're talking about an airframe that's a half-decade from being in full production, and a replacement cycle that's a decade from being in full swing.

Thus focusing on the current state of its sales is rather ridiculous.



Eyad89 wrote:
Many airlines ordered both of 777 and A330 for the superior range that 777 offers. If A330 had similar range capabilities as 777 (like 787 now), then I reckon there would have been fewer airlines operating both 777 and A330 at once.

And many, if not most, did not.

So there's no real point in fantasizing a hypothetical versus focusing on the reality of what happened: which is that many airlines found the two compatible, despite the OEMs' competitive sales nature for that market segment.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Arion640
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:55 am

[quote="LAX772LR"][quote="mig17"][quote="LAX772LR"]There's essentially no overlap between the 77X and the 787; and we don't know how carriers will treat the A35K vs 779... for all we know, they could fit together just as well as the A330 and 777 did; an unlikely combination that many airlines ended up choosing.[/quote]
The 777-X is to the A350 what the A330NEO is to the 787. A direct market competitor with an advantage for the newer generation (A350/787). [/quote]
It could easily be argued that the A350 and 779 aren't direct market competitors.

Boeing couldn't have taken a 30yr-old platform and hoped to compete directly 1on1 with technology that first entered service two years ago. The models are slotted in between each other to address some parts of the same market, but other parts individually: the 779's sales compete with the A380 just as much as they do the A35K.



[quote="Arion640"][quote="LAX772LR"]
And for all you, we, they, or anyone else knows.... it might. Or not.[/quote]
No - the point I was trying to make was Boeing seemed like they thought it was going to be the next big thing like the 77W was, but like I have previously mentioned on here Boeing was pressured into launching it by the ME3 - it's only them + LH who are really driving it. [/quote]
And, like I just said above... you're talking about an airframe that's a half-decade from being in full production, and a replacement cycle that's a decade from being in full swing.

Thus focusing on the current state of its sales is rather ridiculous.



[quote="Eyad89"]Many airlines ordered both of 777 and A330 for the superior range that 777 offers. If A330 had similar range capabilities as 777 (like 787 now), then I reckon there would have been fewer airlines operating both 777 and A330 at once.[/quote]
And many, if not most, did not.

So there's no real point in fantasizing a hypothetical versus focusing on the reality of what happened: which is that many airlines found the two compatible, despite the OEMs' competitive sales nature for that market segment.[/quote]

Personally I'd say they aren't - but Boeing had to come up with something a little larger than the 787 to counter act A350 sales.

No I'm not trying to forecast the lifecycle of the aircraft, it just seems perhaps a little ahead of it's time when many potential operators have relatively new 77W fleets. And like I said above, it's obvious this aircraft has been driven by the ME3 considering they have massive ammounts of aircraft on order.
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:06 am

LAX772LR wrote:
And, like I just said above... you're talking about an airframe that's a half-decade from being in full production, and a replacement cycle that's a decade from being in full swing.

Thus focusing on the current state of its sales is rather ridiculous.


Indeed... I think that's a big part of the larger picture here that almost everyone is missing. The 779 is not intended to be a place holder. Boeing will be perfectly happy to retain the 777 family as its VLA/top of market offering for the foreseeable future.
The program isn't going to whither away at 400 orders or be replaced in the next few decades.

They really are getting to a point where they've optimized their cross-section/wing combinations where capacity is concerned. And when the MoM/797 comes to market, they'll have it locked down until some exceptional sea change in commercial aviation changes everything.

As for the 779, I expect this to translate to a 40+ year production cycle. And that won't even be a first for Boeing. Even if this means Boeing slowing the to a dozen or less a year at times (there will always be recessions and periods when there just aren't a need for too many replacements). Occasionally re-engining a proven, solid and efficient design (one that doesn't require a ton of grandfathering) is a hell of a lot better than making a new VLA every 25 years.


We've been spoiled over the last 50 or so years by an astounding cornucopia of twin aisle variety. But the market really has figured out what they want, by and large. Both B and A aren't going to want to mess with that.
Much like a GE90, I'm a huge fan of Big Twins...

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