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BHXLOVER
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:26 pm

727200 wrote:
Desperate times, desperate measures.

Just kill this dinosaur and move on.


Yeh yeh we know Mr Boeing
 
DWC
Posts: 607
Joined: Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:49 pm

Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:26 pm

Planesmart wrote:
Does China see more future in VLA's than the West? Does China have an EK vision?

I've previously considered that post-A380, the next VLA will be an Airbus/Boeing collaboration. Perhaps it will be another partnership, but with Chinese aerospace in the lead role. Quite a smart move by Airbus if the Chinese are indeed receptive. Perhaps RR and EA will reconsider their PiP decisions?

Of course China has an EK vision, and actually beyond that : dedicated thread viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382743
It even wants to become the world's next major OEM, not before the 2030s I should think. Leahy thinks they will.
In fact, WB partnership was just signed with Russia.
 
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Semaex
Posts: 803
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2009 4:17 pm

Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:00 pm

redflyer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I always thought this was the most plausible solution to continue a380. There are plenty of trunk routes in china where a380 could be applied. Chinese air space is tight. All the major airports will be seriously slot constrained. Those major routes could all use a380 capacity.

Slot constraints are a product of the West, where new airport construction and new runway construction have been at a standstill for the past couple of decades. China does not have this restriction. When the demand is there, they will simply bulldoze entire villages and relocate the populace in order to build new airports and/or runways.

But I digress. Slot constraints at airports in the West haven't rendered the A380 a success, either, so what makes anyone think it will be any different in China?

China will soon have exactly this restriction. Because a rising middle class, getting more concious of the environmental, will no longer tolerate a mega-hub in their backyard because the government "said so".
But as discussed already, the real slot restraint is not the airport, but the airspace.


Revelation wrote:
Bottom line to me is, what will China learn about aerospace by installing A380 cabins that it is not learning from installing A330 cabins? Probably not much. Therefore if the deal closes, it'll be for political, symbolic reasons.

QuarkFly wrote:
So those convoy's carrying giant A380 sections through small French villages are now going to road-trip it across Eurasia to China for assembly?

Who said anything about cabin outfitting or final assembly? I have so far only heard and read rumours. The OP article mentions neither.
If the Chinese demand an "Airbus Future Tech Campus" (for lack of a better word), they might just get that, and no actual aircraft assembly. Technology transfer is all they want in the end anyways. When it comes to employment of the masses, they don't need Airbus or any other manufacturer for that matter.


JetBuddy wrote:
Interesting development indeed. There's not much information on what the deal might include, but I'm somewhat sceptical of transferring tech to China.

It will happen one way or the other, sooner than later. "If you can't beat them, join them" is my guess on the long-term relationship between any given western company and China. And I personally greatly support this approach.
Airbus may want to save the A380 program, but as another member noted, this is France's President travelling with an entourage of 50 CEOs to discuss the future of their own economy. Airbus will stay a great and successful aircraft maker, whether with or without the A380. But it will go down in flames if it does not open itself to Chinese investment. So while for us anutters it would be nice to see the A380 program continue for many years, this clearly can't be the paramount objective of Bregiers and co.
// You know you're an aviation enthusiast if you look at your neighbour's cars and think about fleet commonality.
 
Egerton
Posts: 864
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:33 pm

Stitch wrote:
So the speculation is that this will become an A380 Completion and Delivery Centre, complementing the current A330 Completion and Delivery Centre at Tianjin.

All current A350 Completion and Delivery is done in TLS, correct? And I believe I have read here that the A350 program is using some A380 FAL space at TLS for outfitting?

Assuming the above is true, could the impetus for this be Airbus wanting to move the A380 outfitting from Hamburg to Tianjin and then moving some A350 outfitting to Hamburg in support of higher (planned and future) A350 production rates that would require more outfitting capacity? This would keep the Germans happy for losing the A380 outfitting and even if China does not themselves buy any A380s, it would still strengthen ties between Airbus and China if China took over outfitting A380s.


Well done Stitch for pointing out that A380s are assembled in TLS and then flown to Hamburg for completion. This was the political price of inefficiency extracted from Airbus when it was run by nationalistic politicians. That was in the past. The part of the A380 assembly performed in TLS will not change. The green aircraft will be flown China for completion, which is the same as the A330. What Airbus will decide on for Hamburg is commercial decision for them. The work involved in completing A380s at Hamburg is relatively small, the people doing that work may be re-deployed to other tasks. Like at TLS, the Hamburg is very busy and with the ramp up of Airbus production there is no shortage of work to be done.

It seems to be the case that Airbus has decided that each new location should aim initially for Rate 4, with potential for Rate 8. This avoids having difficulty attracting skilled people from a reasonable travel to work catchment area. In the US, they may be thinking of an eventual Rate 16, to include the new suggested CS line. So the CS assembly line may be at a new location in the US. Probably some more Beluga XL may be needed for the new US - Canada - Europe operations.

The future enhanced A321s will need an up-scaling of their assembly line as they will have longer fuselage, landing gear and wings. I expect the future enhanced A321 will be the precursor to an eventual low risk phased renewal of the whole then existing A32x product line, by which I mean the existing A320 and A321. If this is the case, a new separate up-scaled assembly line for the enhanced A321 with a target of Rate 4 but planned to operate at half that to enable some development activity and production optimisation to be carried out without messing up the existing assembly lines.

This first new enhanced A321 line will best be located at TLS, which unfortunately is already very short of space and and has grown like topsy to be an over-large a centre of employment. Thus a second new up-scaled assembly line for any current or future narrow bodies may be needed at a new plant located elsewhere. This could be used to get towards the Rate 100 for all Airbus narrow bodies. It cannot be located at Hamburg, nor at TLS, nor in Spain and nor in the US. (Given its existing competencies and low currency exchange rate the UK may perhaps be worth considering alongside other competing locations.)

Forecasts of future deliveries is a just branch of archaeology, creating plausible guesses based on things past. As far as Airbus narrow bodies are concerned, the demand far exceeds supply, so production must increase or a barn door will be left wide open for new start-ups. If the world economy and world GDP drops off a cliff, then the supplier with inferior products will suffer more that the firm with superior products. If things get really dire, then 3 or 4 day weeks will be an escape route, not wholesale redundancy, until normal wastage and early retirement kick in.

But the key thing is not the assembly lines or their Rates, it is the off site production of the components. This is where low risk phased renewal comes into play big time, as compared with the big bang theory of totally new product introduction. The sooner Airbus starts on the enhanced A321 project, the better.
 
redflyer
Posts: 3905
Joined: Thu Feb 24, 2005 3:30 am

Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:57 pm

tphuang wrote:
redflyer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
There is really a lot of ignorance going on here.

Chinese civilian airspace is extremely congested due to military usage. There is only so many planes that can take off and land at congested air space at any given time. People are not willing to sit on a train for 2 hours to go to countryside because govt figures that's where they can build the largest airport.
Beijing to Shanghai the greatest capacity will always be between pek and sha airport. Any further out, will be taking express trains instead.


So a couple of hundred of A380's injected into the Chinese market is going to miraculously alleviate all of the problems of millions of people needing access to air transportation in China.

You're right, there is a lot of ignorance going on here. The kind that continuously thinks there is a silver bullet of success just around the next corner for the A380 program.

No your comments about China bulldozing villages to build airport is quite ignorant and frankly offensive.

Saying that there is no slot constraints in China is ignorant and non factual.


Well, it is a known fact that the Chinese government displaces entire populations for the benefit of progress (e.g., high rises, industrial development, etc.). So who's to say they haven't or wouldn't do it to add a runway or two here-and-there? I know some of their current airports (e.g., CAN) were built over peasant villages, and quickly. In fact, CAN is planning on adding a couple of additional runways to handle growth, this after just opening in 2004. Nowhere in the West will you see this kind of progress in aviation. Airport construction is at an almost standstill in the West. Not so in China.

As for my comment on slot constraints in China, what I meant was that China has the ability to easily overcome restrictions; unlike the West where cities are paralyzed when it comes to any kind of new airport or airport expansion plans. Sure there are slot restrictions in China, but the government can overcome them if and when it becomes necessary. That's the beauty (for a bureaucrat) of having a single-party authoritarian government. What the government feels is in the best interests of the state is paramount to all other considerations.
A government big enough to take away a constitutionally guaranteed right is a government big enough to take away any guaranteed right. A government big enough to give you everything you need is a government big enough to take away everything you have.
 
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zeke
Posts: 15153
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:18 pm

I don’t see why they could not ship completed sections and wings to China like the A320 for assembly. The low rate production on the A380, and higher number of man hours per airframe would benefit grater from the lower wages in China.

For all we know this could be extrapolated even further with a completion centre in the UAE, with the assembled aircraft sent from China to the UAE for cabin fit.

Taking the FAL away from TLS will free up space and workers to expand the A350 FAL.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
tphuang
Posts: 5331
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:26 pm

redflyer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
redflyer wrote:

So a couple of hundred of A380's injected into the Chinese market is going to miraculously alleviate all of the problems of millions of people needing access to air transportation in China.

You're right, there is a lot of ignorance going on here. The kind that continuously thinks there is a silver bullet of success just around the next corner for the A380 program.

No your comments about China bulldozing villages to build airport is quite ignorant and frankly offensive.

Saying that there is no slot constraints in China is ignorant and non factual.


Well, it is a known fact that the Chinese government displaces entire populations for the benefit of progress (e.g., high rises, industrial development, etc.). So who's to say they haven't or wouldn't do it to add a runway or two here-and-there? I know some of their current airports (e.g., CAN) were built over peasant villages, and quickly. In fact, CAN is planning on adding a couple of additional runways to handle growth, this after just opening in 2004. Nowhere in the West will you see this kind of progress in aviation. Airport construction is at an almost standstill in the West. Not so in China.

As for my comment on slot constraints in China, what I meant was that China has the ability to easily overcome restrictions; unlike the West where cities are paralyzed when it comes to any kind of new airport or airport expansion plans. Sure there are slot restrictions in China, but the government can overcome them if and when it becomes necessary. That's the beauty (for a bureaucrat) of having a single-party authoritarian government. What the government feels is in the best interests of the state is paramount to all other considerations.


There are times in the past where they have to relocate some people in order for economic environment, yes. Most of the time, people agree to it and are fairly compensated with equivalent sized homes in new constructions. To say they will bulldoze village in the middle of nowhere to make way for airports is simply ignorant of the fact that you have to build airports close enough to city for people to use them. And the existing airports are close enough to city center that they can use them.

They can't bulldoze large part of Beijing or Shanghai or Guangzhou to build airport. That just can't be done.

So the desirable airport will always be slot restricted. Yes they can build airport 2 hours outside of Beijing from main train station, but who is going to fly from there domestically when you can take express train to Shanghai in a few hours.
 
DWC
Posts: 607
Joined: Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:49 pm

Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:33 pm

zeke wrote:
I don’t see why they could not ship completed sections and wings to China like the A320 for assembly. The low rate production on the A380, and higher number of man hours per airframe would benefit grater from the lower wages in China.

For all we know this could be extrapolated even further with a completion centre in the UAE, with the assembled aircraft sent from China to the UAE for cabin fit.

Taking the FAL away from TLS will free up space and workers to expand the A350 FAL.

Interesting thought : China has big ocean container carriers aplenty, that wouldn't be a problem...
I don't know how Airbus could sell that politically to the European public & investors, perhaps "to China or the A380 joins the dinosaur graveyard" is enough.

Speaking of the UAE, they were in talks of assembling MC21s, and the Russians again are co-producing the CR919 with China. So we have two new emergent industrial countries willing to produce or finalize WBs, and these are neither Airbus nor Boeing.
Perhaps that is an additional reason for Airbus to seal more partnerships with China.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9391
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:40 pm

Egerton wrote:
Stitch wrote:
So the speculation is that this will become an A380 Completion and Delivery Centre, complementing the current A330 Completion and Delivery Centre at Tianjin.

All current A350 Completion and Delivery is done in TLS, correct? And I believe I have read here that the A350 program is using some A380 FAL space at TLS for outfitting?

Assuming the above is true, could the impetus for this be Airbus wanting to move the A380 outfitting from Hamburg to Tianjin and then moving some A350 outfitting to Hamburg in support of higher (planned and future) A350 production rates that would require more outfitting capacity? This would keep the Germans happy for losing the A380 outfitting and even if China does not themselves buy any A380s, it would still strengthen ties between Airbus and China if China took over outfitting A380s.


Well done Stitch for pointing out that A380s are assembled in TLS and then flown to Hamburg for completion. This was the political price of inefficiency extracted from Airbus when it was run by nationalistic politicians. That was in the past. The part of the A380 assembly performed in TLS will not change. The green aircraft will be flown China for completion, which is the same as the A330. What Airbus will decide on for Hamburg is commercial decision for them. The work involved in completing A380s at Hamburg is relatively small, the people doing that work may be re-deployed to other tasks. Like at TLS, the Hamburg is very busy and with the ramp up of Airbus production there is no shortage of work to be done.

It seems to be the case that Airbus has decided that each new location should aim initially for Rate 4, with potential for Rate 8. This avoids having difficulty attracting skilled people from a reasonable travel to work catchment area. In the US, they may be thinking of an eventual Rate 16, to include the new suggested CS line. So the CS assembly line may be at a new location in the US. Probably some more Beluga XL may be needed for the new US - Canada - Europe operations.

The future enhanced A321s will need an up-scaling of their assembly line as they will have longer fuselage, landing gear and wings. I expect the future enhanced A321 will be the precursor to an eventual low risk phased renewal of the whole then existing A32x product line, by which I mean the existing A320 and A321. If this is the case, a new separate up-scaled assembly line for the enhanced A321 with a target of Rate 4 but planned to operate at half that to enable some development activity and production optimisation to be carried out without messing up the existing assembly lines.

This first new enhanced A321 line will best be located at TLS, which unfortunately is already very short of space and and has grown like topsy to be an over-large a centre of employment. Thus a second new up-scaled assembly line for any current or future narrow bodies may be needed at a new plant located elsewhere. This could be used to get towards the Rate 100 for all Airbus narrow bodies. It cannot be located at Hamburg, nor at TLS, nor in Spain and nor in the US. (Given its existing competencies and low currency exchange rate the UK may perhaps be worth considering alongside other competing locations.)

Forecasts of future deliveries is a just branch of archaeology, creating plausible guesses based on things past. As far as Airbus narrow bodies are concerned, the demand far exceeds supply, so production must increase or a barn door will be left wide open for new start-ups. If the world economy and world GDP drops off a cliff, then the supplier with inferior products will suffer more that the firm with superior products. If things get really dire, then 3 or 4 day weeks will be an escape route, not wholesale redundancy, until normal wastage and early retirement kick in.

But the key thing is not the assembly lines or their Rates, it is the off site production of the components. This is where low risk phased renewal comes into play big time, as compared with the big bang theory of totally new product introduction. The sooner Airbus starts on the enhanced A321 project, the better.


You can be assured, that if we see a stretched or re winged A321, needing a new assembly line, that first line would be build in XFW. If a Chinese line would take over A380 outfitting from XFW, Airbus would not even need to build a new hanger there, just place the line in an empty one. Even without that there is the space.

The political move was to place the A380 FAL in TLS, as placing it in XFW would have cut significantly the need to transport parts. Both the front and aft fuselage are manufactured in XFW. The wings are finished in Bremen and the vertical stabiliser including rudder comes from Stade. XFW is the biggest pre FAL manufacturing site of Airbus, for the A380, A330, A350 and the A320. For the A380 parts no road transport to XFW would have been needed, but for the parts now trucked to XFW and flown to TLS. All other parts could come by ship to XFW.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3524
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:52 pm

alfa164 wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Heck, they could not make it work flying between Guangzhou and Hong Kong

Sorry for nitpicking, Guangzhou and Hong Kong are very close to each other. I cannot imagine they ever considered to fly this route.


zakuivcustom wrote:
Nobody flies between Guangzhou and Hong Kong anyway. It's 2 hrs by train and maybe a little bit longer on the gajillion cross-border buses.


CZ doesn't fly it, but CX (actually flown by KA, I think) goes HKG-CAN twice daily.


It's 2x daily KA A320 on that route, mostly to connect to long-haul flights in HKG. Nobody is going to just fly between the two cities on an O&D basis, though, other than maybe some a.nutter.

tphuang wrote:
redflyer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
No your comments about China bulldozing villages to build airport is quite ignorant and frankly offensive.

Saying that there is no slot constraints in China is ignorant and non factual.


Well, it is a known fact that the Chinese government displaces entire populations for the benefit of progress (e.g., high rises, industrial development, etc.). So who's to say they haven't or wouldn't do it to add a runway or two here-and-there? I know some of their current airports (e.g., CAN) were built over peasant villages, and quickly. In fact, CAN is planning on adding a couple of additional runways to handle growth, this after just opening in 2004. Nowhere in the West will you see this kind of progress in aviation. Airport construction is at an almost standstill in the West. Not so in China.

As for my comment on slot constraints in China, what I meant was that China has the ability to easily overcome restrictions; unlike the West where cities are paralyzed when it comes to any kind of new airport or airport expansion plans. Sure there are slot restrictions in China, but the government can overcome them if and when it becomes necessary. That's the beauty (for a bureaucrat) of having a single-party authoritarian government. What the government feels is in the best interests of the state is paramount to all other considerations.


There are times in the past where they have to relocate some people in order for economic environment, yes. Most of the time, people agree to it and are fairly compensated with equivalent sized homes in new constructions. To say they will bulldoze village in the middle of nowhere to make way for airports is simply ignorant of the fact that you have to build airports close enough to city for people to use them. And the existing airports are close enough to city center that they can use them.

They can't bulldoze large part of Beijing or Shanghai or Guangzhou to build airport. That just can't be done.

So the desirable airport will always be slot restricted. Yes they can build airport 2 hours outside of Beijing from main train station, but who is going to fly from there domestically when you can take express train to Shanghai in a few hours.


To be fair, all the new airports in China are already far away from city center. Daxing is 30mi south of core of Beijing, and will take about 45 mins (minimum) to get from central Beijing to there anyway (I'm using the "Financial Street" district as my basis, which is 15 mins from Beijing South Station. Daxing is suppose to be 30mins train ride from Beijing South). Even Pudong, which is one of the "older" new airport in China, is far from central Shanghai (Around 45 mins minimum from Lujiazui, just for a baseline).

Of course, the good thing about those airports being in the middle of nowhere is the fact that expansion is a lot easier. Pudong, for example, expand from a single runway (in 2005) to 5 (in 2017) with almost zero problem. In the meantime, LHR is still operating with 2 runways :lol: .
 
Egerton
Posts: 864
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:50 am

Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:01 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Egerton wrote:
Stitch wrote:
So the speculation is that this will become an A380 Completion and Delivery Centre, complementing the current A330 Completion and Delivery Centre at Tianjin.

All current A350 Completion and Delivery is done in TLS, correct? And I believe I have read here that the A350 program is using some A380 FAL space at TLS for outfitting?

Assuming the above is true, could the impetus for this be Airbus wanting to move the A380 outfitting from Hamburg to Tianjin and then moving some A350 outfitting to Hamburg in support of higher (planned and future) A350 production rates that would require more outfitting capacity? This would keep the Germans happy for losing the A380 outfitting and even if China does not themselves buy any A380s, it would still strengthen ties between Airbus and China if China took over outfitting A380s.


Well done Stitch for pointing out that A380s are assembled in TLS and then flown to Hamburg for completion. This was the political price of inefficiency extracted from Airbus when it was run by nationalistic politicians. That was in the past. The part of the A380 assembly performed in TLS will not change. The green aircraft will be flown China for completion, which is the same as the A330. What Airbus will decide on for Hamburg is commercial decision for them. The work involved in completing A380s at Hamburg is relatively small, the people doing that work may be re-deployed to other tasks. Like at TLS, the Hamburg is very busy and with the ramp up of Airbus production there is no shortage of work to be done.

It seems to be the case that Airbus has decided that each new location should aim initially for Rate 4, with potential for Rate 8. This avoids having difficulty attracting skilled people from a reasonable travel to work catchment area. In the US, they may be thinking of an eventual Rate 16, to include the new suggested CS line. So the CS assembly line may be at a new location in the US. Probably some more Beluga XL may be needed for the new US - Canada - Europe operations.

The future enhanced A321s will need an up-scaling of their assembly line as they will have longer fuselage, landing gear and wings. I expect the future enhanced A321 will be the precursor to an eventual low risk phased renewal of the whole then existing A32x product line, by which I mean the existing A320 and A321. If this is the case, a new separate up-scaled assembly line for the enhanced A321 with a target of Rate 4 but planned to operate at half that to enable some development activity and production optimisation to be carried out without messing up the existing assembly lines.

This first new enhanced A321 line will best be located at TLS, which unfortunately is already very short of space and and has grown like topsy to be an over-large a centre of employment. Thus a second new up-scaled assembly line for any current or future narrow bodies may be needed at a new plant located elsewhere. This could be used to get towards the Rate 100 for all Airbus narrow bodies. It cannot be located at Hamburg, nor at TLS, nor in Spain and nor in the US. (Given its existing competencies and low currency exchange rate the UK may perhaps be worth considering alongside other competing locations.)

Forecasts of future deliveries is a just branch of archaeology, creating plausible guesses based on things past. As far as Airbus narrow bodies are concerned, the demand far exceeds supply, so production must increase or a barn door will be left wide open for new start-ups. If the world economy and world GDP drops off a cliff, then the supplier with inferior products will suffer more that the firm with superior products. If things get really dire, then 3 or 4 day weeks will be an escape route, not wholesale redundancy, until normal wastage and early retirement kick in.

But the key thing is not the assembly lines or their Rates, it is the off site production of the components. This is where low risk phased renewal comes into play big time, as compared with the big bang theory of totally new product introduction. The sooner Airbus starts on the enhanced A321 project, the better.


You can be assured, that if we see a stretched or re winged A321, needing a new assembly line, that first line would be build in XFW. If a Chinese line would take over A380 outfitting from XFW, Airbus would not even need to build a new hanger there, just place the line in an empty one. Even without that there is the space.

The political move was to place the A380 FAL in TLS, as placing it in XFW would have cut significantly the need to transport parts. Both the front and aft fuselage are manufactured in XFW. The wings are finished in Bremen and the vertical stabiliser including rudder comes from Stade. XFW is the biggest pre FAL manufacturing site of Airbus, for the A380, A330, A350 and the A320. For the A380 parts no road transport to XFW would have been needed, but for the parts now trucked to XFW and flown to TLS. All other parts could come by ship to XFW.


Thanks for your knowledge on Hamburg. How do you view my thoughts on the apparent Airbus strategy of placing new assembly lines/plants can be scaled at locations where the number of employees can be limited to avoid overloading the capacity of the travel to work area to supply skilled workers?
 
tphuang
Posts: 5331
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:37 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
alfa164 wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
Sorry for nitpicking, Guangzhou and Hong Kong are very close to each other. I cannot imagine they ever considered to fly this route.


zakuivcustom wrote:
Nobody flies between Guangzhou and Hong Kong anyway. It's 2 hrs by train and maybe a little bit longer on the gajillion cross-border buses.


CZ doesn't fly it, but CX (actually flown by KA, I think) goes HKG-CAN twice daily.


It's 2x daily KA A320 on that route, mostly to connect to long-haul flights in HKG. Nobody is going to just fly between the two cities on an O&D basis, though, other than maybe some a.nutter.

tphuang wrote:
redflyer wrote:

Well, it is a known fact that the Chinese government displaces entire populations for the benefit of progress (e.g., high rises, industrial development, etc.). So who's to say they haven't or wouldn't do it to add a runway or two here-and-there? I know some of their current airports (e.g., CAN) were built over peasant villages, and quickly. In fact, CAN is planning on adding a couple of additional runways to handle growth, this after just opening in 2004. Nowhere in the West will you see this kind of progress in aviation. Airport construction is at an almost standstill in the West. Not so in China.

As for my comment on slot constraints in China, what I meant was that China has the ability to easily overcome restrictions; unlike the West where cities are paralyzed when it comes to any kind of new airport or airport expansion plans. Sure there are slot restrictions in China, but the government can overcome them if and when it becomes necessary. That's the beauty (for a bureaucrat) of having a single-party authoritarian government. What the government feels is in the best interests of the state is paramount to all other considerations.


There are times in the past where they have to relocate some people in order for economic environment, yes. Most of the time, people agree to it and are fairly compensated with equivalent sized homes in new constructions. To say they will bulldoze village in the middle of nowhere to make way for airports is simply ignorant of the fact that you have to build airports close enough to city for people to use them. And the existing airports are close enough to city center that they can use them.

They can't bulldoze large part of Beijing or Shanghai or Guangzhou to build airport. That just can't be done.

So the desirable airport will always be slot restricted. Yes they can build airport 2 hours outside of Beijing from main train station, but who is going to fly from there domestically when you can take express train to Shanghai in a few hours.


To be fair, all the new airports in China are already far away from city center. Daxing is 30mi south of core of Beijing, and will take about 45 mins (minimum) to get from central Beijing to there anyway (I'm using the "Financial Street" district as my basis, which is 15 mins from Beijing South Station. Daxing is suppose to be 30mins train ride from Beijing South). Even Pudong, which is one of the "older" new airport in China, is far from central Shanghai (Around 45 mins minimum from Lujiazui, just for a baseline).

Of course, the good thing about those airports being in the middle of nowhere is the fact that expansion is a lot easier. Pudong, for example, expand from a single runway (in 2005) to 5 (in 2017) with almost zero problem. In the meantime, LHR is still operating with 2 runways :lol: .

And to be fair, the main flights from Beijing to Shanghai are from pek to sha not from daxing to pvg. How are pek and sha not going to be slot restricted going forward.

And all the runways don't address the congested air space limitations due to military using so much of it.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3524
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:09 am

tphuang wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
alfa164 wrote:



CZ doesn't fly it, but CX (actually flown by KA, I think) goes HKG-CAN twice daily.


It's 2x daily KA A320 on that route, mostly to connect to long-haul flights in HKG. Nobody is going to just fly between the two cities on an O&D basis, though, other than maybe some a.nutter.

tphuang wrote:

There are times in the past where they have to relocate some people in order for economic environment, yes. Most of the time, people agree to it and are fairly compensated with equivalent sized homes in new constructions. To say they will bulldoze village in the middle of nowhere to make way for airports is simply ignorant of the fact that you have to build airports close enough to city for people to use them. And the existing airports are close enough to city center that they can use them.

They can't bulldoze large part of Beijing or Shanghai or Guangzhou to build airport. That just can't be done.

So the desirable airport will always be slot restricted. Yes they can build airport 2 hours outside of Beijing from main train station, but who is going to fly from there domestically when you can take express train to Shanghai in a few hours.


To be fair, all the new airports in China are already far away from city center. Daxing is 30mi south of core of Beijing, and will take about 45 mins (minimum) to get from central Beijing to there anyway (I'm using the "Financial Street" district as my basis, which is 15 mins from Beijing South Station. Daxing is suppose to be 30mins train ride from Beijing South). Even Pudong, which is one of the "older" new airport in China, is far from central Shanghai (Around 45 mins minimum from Lujiazui, just for a baseline).

Of course, the good thing about those airports being in the middle of nowhere is the fact that expansion is a lot easier. Pudong, for example, expand from a single runway (in 2005) to 5 (in 2017) with almost zero problem. In the meantime, LHR is still operating with 2 runways :lol: .

And to be fair, the main flights from Beijing to Shanghai are from pek to sha not from daxing to pvg. How are pek and sha not going to be slot restricted going forward.

And all the runways don't address the congested air space limitations due to military using so much of it.


Airspace restriction is definitely a bigger problem anyway, hence why all the (sometimes nonsense) talk of CN3 needing A380s just so that they can operate bigger planes and reduced frequency (of course, reality doesn't quite work that way, especially on routes like PEK-SHA where frequency is relevent).

For PEK, they will moved most of the non *A traffic to Daxing anyway if I am not wrong, which means PEK would not be as congested. Of course, I personally see HU or CZ grow quite a bit from Daxing and "clog" up the airspace even more from there.
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:28 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
tphuang wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:

It's 2x daily KA A320 on that route, mostly to connect to long-haul flights in HKG. Nobody is going to just fly between the two cities on an O&D basis, though, other than maybe some a.nutter.



To be fair, all the new airports in China are already far away from city center. Daxing is 30mi south of core of Beijing, and will take about 45 mins (minimum) to get from central Beijing to there anyway (I'm using the "Financial Street" district as my basis, which is 15 mins from Beijing South Station. Daxing is suppose to be 30mins train ride from Beijing South). Even Pudong, which is one of the "older" new airport in China, is far from central Shanghai (Around 45 mins minimum from Lujiazui, just for a baseline).

Of course, the good thing about those airports being in the middle of nowhere is the fact that expansion is a lot easier. Pudong, for example, expand from a single runway (in 2005) to 5 (in 2017) with almost zero problem. In the meantime, LHR is still operating with 2 runways :lol: .

And to be fair, the main flights from Beijing to Shanghai are from pek to sha not from daxing to pvg. How are pek and sha not going to be slot restricted going forward.

And all the runways don't address the congested air space limitations due to military using so much of it.


Airspace restriction is definitely a bigger problem anyway, hence why all the (sometimes nonsense) talk of CN3 needing A380s just so that they can operate bigger planes and reduced frequency (of course, reality doesn't quite work that way, especially on routes like PEK-SHA where frequency is relevent).

For PEK, they will moved most of the non *A traffic to Daxing anyway if I am not wrong, which means PEK would not be as congested. Of course, I personally see HU or CZ grow quite a bit from Daxing and "clog" up the airspace even more from there.

Currently, majority of planes on pek sha are 777 and 330. With population growth and frequency unable to grow, this is one place where 380 would work.

People are not going to head out to pvg or daxing for domestic routes when train can get there faster or when the nearby airport is having hourly service.
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:17 am

WPvsMW wrote:
Having done decades work in tech transfer deals, I can tell you the PRC partner wants all the documentation, and unlimited domestic rights, for anything the PRC partner manufactures. That's why KTX and Shinkansen builders refused JVs for the PRC's high speed rail system. If the deal is limited to interiors, it's a nonevent. If the PRC partner demands the usual JV manufacturing deal, Airbus won't do it.


This.

Once the tech starts being shared, the program is all but over and you can expect a Chinese copy spat out in 5-7 years or showing up in new Chinese frames targeting other segments. You may as well just give them all your IP, even that which will help with future air frames. There's a reason the ARJ21 and C919 look so... "familiar".

There's a lot of naivety in this forum regarding what is really entailed in partnering with the Chinese. It is extremely high risk with often little reward (frankly, they're going to order your 320s/737s anyway).
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:40 am

tphuang wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
tphuang wrote:
And to be fair, the main flights from Beijing to Shanghai are from pek to sha not from daxing to pvg. How are pek and sha not going to be slot restricted going forward.

And all the runways don't address the congested air space limitations due to military using so much of it.


Airspace restriction is definitely a bigger problem anyway, hence why all the (sometimes nonsense) talk of CN3 needing A380s just so that they can operate bigger planes and reduced frequency (of course, reality doesn't quite work that way, especially on routes like PEK-SHA where frequency is relevent).

For PEK, they will moved most of the non *A traffic to Daxing anyway if I am not wrong, which means PEK would not be as congested. Of course, I personally see HU or CZ grow quite a bit from Daxing and "clog" up the airspace even more from there.

Currently, majority of planes on pek sha are 777 and 330. With population growth and frequency unable to grow, this is one place where 380 would work.

People are not going to head out to pvg or daxing for domestic routes when train can get there faster or when the nearby airport is having hourly service.


There are still rooms for upgauge (i.e. A333->B77W or even A35K) before even getting close to A380, though. Plus, in my personal opinion, any A380 order will be used more for long-haul "prestige" route rather than PEK-SHA hops (i.e. PEK-JFK, PEK-LAX, PEK-LHR, etc.).
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:41 am

Stitch wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
I guess only CA could make it work and only from PEK.


But Air China already has seven 747-8I that fly from PEK to SFO, JFK, FRA in addition to domestic services. Those are already near 400-seat four-class birds so do they need any more capacity?

Airbus lost a potential A380-customer to Boeing when they ordered the 748i. Simple as that.

Yes, we all know, “all other” 748i-operators (i.e. LH and KE) have both, the B748i and the A380. But in case of CA it might be another story...

When can we expect anything official? Has anyone Macron’s time schedule?
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:57 am

N14AZ wrote:
Stitch wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
I guess only CA could make it work and only from PEK.


But Air China already has seven 747-8I that fly from PEK to SFO, JFK, FRA in addition to domestic services. Those are already near 400-seat four-class birds so do they need any more capacity?

Airbus lost a potential A380-customer to Boeing when they ordered the 748i. Simple as that.

Inaccurate.
CA was an A380 customer & expected to get the A380 frames in time for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. But the repeated A380 delays forced CA to cancel their 10 frames order & place them with the 748 instead to be ready for the massive loads & prestige of the event.
Last edited by DWC on Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:00 am

Moving A380 completion from XFW to China would free up hangar space at the A321 centre of Airbus. This could be an interesting option and very positive especially if XFX gets an A322 or A321+ in return.
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:01 am

Sorry, CA never ever ordered the A380. Airbus always listed CZ as customer.

IIRC, the 748i arrived AFTER the Olympic Games.
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:06 am

N14AZ wrote:
Sorry, CA never ever ordered the A380. Airbus always listed CZ as customer.
IIRC, the 748i arrived AFTER the Olympic Games.

The CAAC order for CA later cancelled was discussed here years ago, I saw it mentionned in several threads.
The CZ order may be another order or a later decision by CAAC, other members would know better.
As to the 748i arriving after the OG, you may be right, I was just parotting what I had read here ;)
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:15 am

DWC wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
Sorry, CA never ever ordered the A380. Airbus always listed CZ as customer.
IIRC, the 748i arrived AFTER the Olympic Games.

The CAAC order for CA later cancelled was discussed here years ago, I saw it mentionned in several threads.
The CZ order may be another order or a later decision by CAAC, other members would know better.

Maybe it was not correct what you read here in another thread (happens, for a certain time we all were convinced that the 787 will have white engines only... remember?).

This is the only firm order: http://com.airbus-fenice.customers.artf ... s-release/

There was no other order from China and consequently there was no cancellation.
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:33 am

Could be, but I usually only memorize info by reputedly knowledgeable members.
Airbus does not advertize cancelled orders & you know the problem with China, there is actually one central buyer that later dispatches the frames to their companies, so maybe the CA order was downsized from 10 to 5 & channelled to CZ instead. That said, your link has the merit to be dated ( Jan 2005 ) months before Airbus announced the first delay ( June 2005 ), so hopefully someone will remember & sort this out.
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:47 am

redflyer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
redflyer wrote:

So a couple of hundred of A380's injected into the Chinese market is going to miraculously alleviate all of the problems of millions of people needing access to air transportation in China.

You're right, there is a lot of ignorance going on here. The kind that continuously thinks there is a silver bullet of success just around the next corner for the A380 program.

No your comments about China bulldozing villages to build airport is quite ignorant and frankly offensive.

Saying that there is no slot constraints in China is ignorant and non factual.


Well, it is a known fact that the Chinese government displaces entire populations for the benefit of progress (e.g., high rises, industrial development, etc.). So who's to say they haven't or wouldn't do it to add a runway or two here-and-there? I know some of their current airports (e.g., CAN) were built over peasant villages, and quickly. In fact, CAN is planning on adding a couple of additional runways to handle growth, this after just opening in 2004. Nowhere in the West will you see this kind of progress in aviation. Airport construction is at an almost standstill in the West. Not so in China.

As for my comment on slot constraints in China, what I meant was that China has the ability to easily overcome restrictions; unlike the West where cities are paralyzed when it comes to any kind of new airport or airport expansion plans. Sure there are slot restrictions in China, but the government can overcome them if and when it becomes necessary. That's the beauty (for a bureaucrat) of having a single-party authoritarian government. What the government feels is in the best interests of the state is paramount to all other considerations.

Even if they could do what you're suggesting, they could not do it fast enough. Dozens of Chinese airports are currently tapped *out* of slots, and any ongoing projects for new terminals/runways are going to be consumed almost instantaneously. Slots are an enormous constraint limiting just about every Chinese carrier today, with no real relief in sight beyond mega projects like Daxing.
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:51 am

DWC wrote:
Could be, but I usually only memorize info by reputedly knowledgeable members.
Airbus does not advertize cancelled orders & you know the problem with China, there is actually one central buyer that later dispatches the frames to their companies, so maybe the CA order was downsized from 10 to 5 & channelled to CZ instead. That said, your link has the merit to be dated ( Jan 2005 ) months before Airbus announced the first delay ( June 2005 ), so hopefully someone will remember & sort this out.

I followed this webpage for years and had my own little spread sheet for orders and deliveries (at that time it was huge fun... today? not so much ;-) ....): https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... deliveries

You can see all orders and cancellations in the section “Chronological orders” (sorry if you already know this source).
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:59 am

CAAC is a state government office enjoying full government authority...if they choose to privilege air transport efficiency over convenience of frequency on domestic routes that is what happens...they can shape, sculpt and mold the air transport sector in China as they wish...

With the A380 they can do just that...


Faro
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:21 pm

Faro wrote:
CAAC is a state government office enjoying full government authority...if they choose to privilege air transport efficiency over convenience of frequency on domestic routes that is what happens...they can shape, sculpt and mold the air transport sector in China as they wish...

With the A380 they can do just that...

Faro

Airbus has been pushing the A380 in China for many years now.

If CN does take the A380s now, it's clearly because they're being offered the prestigious completion center, not because the A380 is the preferred choice of the airlines.

If the deal does get closed, it's a real good deal for Airbus.

If the deal does not get closed, it's probably the final nail in the A380's coffin.
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:30 pm

DWC wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
Stitch wrote:

But Air China already has seven 747-8I that fly from PEK to SFO, JFK, FRA in addition to domestic services. Those are already near 400-seat four-class birds so do they need any more capacity?

Airbus lost a potential A380-customer to Boeing when they ordered the 748i. Simple as that.

Inaccurate.
CA was an A380 customer & expected to get the A380 frames in time for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. But the repeated A380 delays forced CA to cancel their 10 frames order & place them with the 748 instead to be ready for the massive loads & prestige of the event.


DWC wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
Sorry, CA never ever ordered the A380. Airbus always listed CZ as customer.
IIRC, the 748i arrived AFTER the Olympic Games.

The CAAC order for CA later cancelled was discussed here years ago, I saw it mentionned in several threads.
The CZ order may be another order or a later decision by CAAC, other members would know better.
As to the 748i arriving after the OG, you may be right, I was just parotting what I had read here ;)


CA never ordered A380 to start with.

The only "hint" that they are considering an order:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... na-206782/

And even then, nothing was ever confirmed. There were rumors and possible talks of some lease deals, but that's about it. CZ for years has been the only confirmed customer for A380 in China.

And this is from 2007, a year before the Olympic:
https://www.reuters.com/article/airchin ... 4320070722

Note that CA are not even in discussion for anything.

The only other discussion where CA came up is this anyway:
https://centreforaviation.com/insights/ ... hip-103063

In which CZ tried to more or less "dump" those A380 to CA for more PEK O&D long-haul routes. That went nowhere, of course.

Stitch wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
Sorry for nitpicking, Guangzhou and Hong Kong are very close to each other. I cannot imagine they ever considered to fly this route.


I expect because that is what CAAC told them to fly it on.


N14AZ wrote:
I guess only CA could make it work and only from PEK.


But Air China already has seven 747-8I that fly from PEK to SFO, JFK, FRA in addition to domestic services. Those are already near 400-seat four-class birds so do they need any more capacity?


scbriml wrote:
I guess if “China Inc” decides they want this to go ahead, it will. China will then order A380s and Chinese airlines will then operate them (whether or not they actually want to.). Personally I don’t see a lot of hope for a major order.


Agreed on both counts - With the backing of the central government, CACSG can force them down the national carrier's throats whether they want them or not, but I also expect those national carriers do have some influence within said government and seeing how CAAC somewhat screwed over CZ, I would not be surprised to see some push-back if they are not allowed to operate them from PEK and PVG which could limit the order amount (if there is an order amount).

Or maybe the government will just subsidize the flights to cover any losses, though I am sure that will go over well with both much of this forum and non-Chinese carriers facing subsidized A380 competition on flights to/from China.


It had been debunk MANY times already that CAAC doesn't just buy a bunch of plane and allocated them. CZ WANTS the A380, period. It's after that they got it that they realized they can't make money on it.

And CAAC does NOT decided what plane an airline can used on a route. They decided route authority (In another word, whether an airline get to fly a route or not), but that's about it. And if somebody really wants a route to be operated (i.e. Some 3rd tier middle of nowhere airport to PEK), that's what all those provincial airlines are there for.

Sigh...the forever a.net myth from people that don't know anything about Chinese aviation :banghead: :banghead:

Faro wrote:
CAAC is a state government office enjoying full government authority...if they choose to privilege air transport efficiency over convenience of frequency on domestic routes that is what happens...they can shape, sculpt and mold the air transport sector in China as they wish...

With the A380 they can do just that...


Faro


As much as you want to dream, any A380 in China would highly unlikely be running domestic shuttles. Quite frankly, if they really need the capacity, CA could have runs 744 and 748i on those domestic routes already. But no, A333 is the way to go.

And BTW, Chinese gov't in general is shoddy businesspeople. They know better than losing a ton of money just b/c some a.nutter A380 fanboi thinks China should operated A380 b/c they have tons of people. Might as well just sell them to India next, they're going to surpassed China in population in 10 years anyway. At least AI is actually losing money, unlike the CN3.
Last edited by zakuivcustom on Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:31 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -a380-pact reports from the poker table in China that Bregier has said the Tianjin A320 line will go from rate 4/month to 6/month, and:

A French official also confirmed that discussions are underway about a possible Airbus partnership with China on the slow-selling A380 superjumbo. The Toulouse-based company could hand over some interiors and finishing work on the double-decker if Beijing agrees to buy more of the double-decker jets, a person with knowledge of the discussions said Monday.

Seems low key. No one is willing to be attributed in the report.

It also says that it's not clear if the trip will result in any significant new orders for Airbus aircraft.

Perhaps the Chinese are more interested in French horses, wine and cheese?

Ref: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... isit-china
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
It also says that it's not clear if the trip will result in any significant new orders for Airbus aircraft.
Perhaps the Chinese are more interested in French horses, wine and cheese?
Ref: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... isit-china

As I said earlier in the thread, the FT got it all wrong : Macron is in China to seal his new foreign policy strategy & make of France China's leading Western partner now that the UK entangled themselves with Brexit, Merkel is most busy trying to save her coalition & Trump enthusiastically playing the clown.
At best, Airbus is only 1/50th of Macron's or China's current preoccupations & the A380 a mere fraction of that.
( run this on Google Translate, unless the Huff already translated it, very informative http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2018/01/08 ... _23326913/ )
I admit that the A380 scenario has some chutzpah, if Brégier pulls that one, just what is Terminator Enders still doing at the top of Airbus ?
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:53 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
It had been debunk MANY times already that CAAC doesn't just buy a bunch of plane and allocated them.


You're saying that all the major Chinese airlines decided it would be very efficient to operate A319 and 737-700 as well as the A320 and 737-800 and the government didn't tell them they had to operate both?
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:31 pm

DWC wrote:
As I said earlier in the thread, the FT got it all wrong : Macron is in China to seal his new foreign policy strategy & make of France China's leading Western partner now that the UK entangled themselves with Brexit, Merkel is most busy trying to save her coalition & Trump enthusiastically playing the clown.
At best, Airbus is only 1/50th of Macron's or China's current preoccupations & the A380 a mere fraction of that.
( run this on Google Translate, unless the Huff already translated it, very informative http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2018/01/08 ... _23326913/ )
I admit that the A380 scenario has some chutzpah, if Brégier pulls that one, just what is Terminator Enders still doing at the top of Airbus ?

I agree that FT gives a pretty elevated prominence to the A380's role in Macron's visit.

Regardless, it's what we on a.net care about the most.

Note we do not read any denials from Airbus about this potential deal.

That might happen if/when it falls through. :-(

It seems to be a pivotal point in A380's future.

If CN rejects this overture, it gives the lie to the idea that CN will save the A380.

If CN accepts this overture, it provides a very welcome lifeline to the A380 and indeed would bolster Brégier's legacy.

It seems to show that sealing Enders's and Brégier's fate provides these men with a lot of freedom of action.

In short they can double down the bets on the idea that CN will be the future of the A380, and if it doesn't work out, so be it.
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:44 pm

DWC wrote:
As I said earlier in the thread, the FT got it all wrong : Macron is in China to seal his new foreign policy strategy & make of France China's leading Western partner...


The Napoleon complex strikes again. At least they'll always have Paris.
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:45 pm

scbriml wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
It had been debunk MANY times already that CAAC doesn't just buy a bunch of plane and allocated them.


You're saying that all the major Chinese airlines decided it would be very efficient to operate A319 and 737-700 as well as the A320 and 737-800 and the government didn't tell them they had to operate both?


Huh? Tons of airlines operate both, what does that have to do with the government telling them whether they have to operate them or not? It's not like CN3 are small in terms of fleet size by any means anyway. You're not talking about 3 319s then 7 320s and 9 73Gs with 4 738s. For example, CZ has 200+ A320 family (319/320/321) and ~150 737 family (73G/738).
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:15 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
CZ WANTS the A380, period. It's after that they got it that they realized they can't make money on it.


Of course they wanted it - for the 2008 Summer Olympics. Same reason a number of Chinese national carriers ordered the 787, which was also supposed to be available in time for The Games. Of course they were going to operate the planes long afterwards, but the purchases of both the A380 and 787 were in some part driven by prestige at having the "latest and greatest" bringing people to The Games.


zakuivcustom wrote:
And CAAC does NOT decided what plane an airline can used on a route. They decided route authority (In another word, whether an airline get to fly a route or not), but that's about it.


And by denying CZ certain (IMO favorable) route authorities from PEK, they forced CZ to use the A380 from their CAN hub where the traffic isn't sufficient to economically fill the plane on most, if not all, of the routes they have tried to operate it on since delivery.
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:33 pm

Stitch wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
CZ WANTS the A380, period. It's after that they got it that they realized they can't make money on it.


Of course they wanted it - for the 2008 Summer Olympics. Same reason a number of Chinese national carriers ordered the 787, which was also supposed to be available in time for The Games. Of course they were going to operate the planes long afterwards, but the purchases of both the A380 and 787 were in some part driven by prestige at having the "latest and greatest" bringing people to The Games.


I don't disagree. On the other hand, at least the 787 works out for CN3 much better than the A380.

Stitch wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
And CAAC does NOT decided what plane an airline can used on a route. They decided route authority (In another word, whether an airline get to fly a route or not), but that's about it.


And by denying CZ certain (IMO favorable) route authorities from PEK, they forced CZ to use the A380 from their CAN hub where the traffic isn't sufficient to economically fill the plane on most, if not all, of the routes they have tried to operate it on since delivery.


My point was that CAAC does not micromanaged to a point of telling a carrier to operate a specific plane (i.e. A380) on a specific route. On the other hand, we all know CAAC favored CA by giving them all the best routes (Especially out of PEK) AND exception to the "one route one airline" rule on long-haul routes (Chiefly, PVG-FRA and PVG-CDG, operated by both CA and MU. Same for PVG-MEL).
 
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:46 pm

I agree with those who are concerned about the transferring to China of advanced technology. Interiors may not be key technologies, but they could be the foot in the door toward something more critical.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:54 pm

IADFCO wrote:
I agree with those who are concerned about the transferring to China of advanced technology. Interiors may not be key technologies,


It is still rocket science for Zodiac.
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Jayafe
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:16 pm

IADFCO wrote:
I agree with those who are concerned about the transferring to China of advanced technology. Interiors may not be key technologies, but they could be the foot in the door toward something more critical.


If that was to be true, that ship left long ago for Boeing and Airbus fitting facilities...
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:20 am

Seems Macron is able to sell every Airbus Commercial model, except A380.

The suggestion is the trade of an A380 completion hall isn't enough to instantly motivate China to buy 30 A380s.

It now falls into the same pile as the EK order: nice idea, maybe it'll happen, maybe it won't.
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scbriml
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:35 am

Jayafe wrote:
IADFCO wrote:
I agree with those who are concerned about the transferring to China of advanced technology. Interiors may not be key technologies, but they could be the foot in the door toward something more critical.


If that was to be true, that ship left long ago for Boeing and Airbus fitting facilities...


Even longer ago than that.

China has had access to Western aircraft since the 1970s. There's been nothing to stop them towing one into a hangar and taking it apart piece by piece for the last 40-odd years. Either it represents next to zero risk or the Chinese are unbelievably slow at learning (which I doubt).
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DWC
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:47 am

The French press just announced the results for Airbus, if a partnership for the A380 goes through it won't be announced "before weeks or months" viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1383327&p=20081365#p20081365
Last edited by DWC on Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:49 am

Revelation wrote:
Seems Macron is able to sell every Airbus Commercial model, except A380.

The suggestion is the trade of an A380 completion hall isn't enough to instantly motivate China to buy 30 A380s.

It now falls into the same pile as the EK order: nice idea, maybe it'll happen, maybe it won't.


:confused:

Talks have just started and may take months to complete.

Fabrice Brégier, Airbus’s outgoing chief operating officer, will hold early stage discussions on the subject when he heads to China on Monday as part of a trade mission accompanying French president Emmanuel Macron on his first state visit to the country.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:13 pm

Revelation wrote:
Seems Macron is able to sell every Airbus Commercial model, except A380.

???
If that's your Interpretation than it should read: "Seems Macron is able to sell every Airbus Commercial model, except A330, A350 and A380"
 
parapente
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:25 pm

Well the fact that we are hearing about it at all and that discussions will take many months tells us 2 things.
1.The Chinese government have not rejected it out of hand
2.They wish to peruse the discussions further So see a chance of agreement.

Of course that does not mean they can square the circle but clearly both sides feel that they might be able to.
Just have to be patient on this one.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:37 pm

Revelation wrote:
Seems Macron is able to sell every Airbus Commercial model, except A380....


Like I said up thread, the goal is not to sell more frames, but to make production line low-cost and low-rate.

If Airbus unnecessarily pushes A380s on China, it will spoil the long-term relationship.

I still believe the entire program will be sold to China.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:03 pm

It is not an easy deal. Apart from reaching an agreement with the Chinese, Airbus will also need to show a future use for the hangars and the workforce at the European factories that would be made redundant, if they do not want to anger the French and German governments. So imho the A380 decision will probably linked to a project launch for something different.
 
IADFCO
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:34 pm

scbriml wrote:
Jayafe wrote:
IADFCO wrote:
I agree with those who are concerned about the transferring to China of advanced technology. Interiors may not be key technologies, but they could be the foot in the door toward something more critical.


If that was to be true, that ship left long ago for Boeing and Airbus fitting facilities...


Even longer ago than that.

China has had access to Western aircraft since the 1970s. There's been nothing to stop them towing one into a hangar and taking it apart piece by piece for the last 40-odd years. Either it represents next to zero risk or the Chinese are unbelievably slow at learning (which I doubt).

Yes and no. You can examine a large composite wing box to your heart's content, but you won't be able to reproduce it if you don't know the sequence of manufacturing steps, the curing temperatures, pressures, etc. Similarly, you may know the flight control laws in excruciating detail as a pilot, but you need to have access to the underlying source code to be able to modify them or adapt them to a different aircraft.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:22 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Like I said up thread, the goal is not to sell more frames, but to make production line low-cost and low-rate.


The aim of offering China an A380 completion centre is specifically to sell more A380s.

dtw2hyd wrote:
If Airbus unnecessarily pushes A380s on China, it will spoil the long-term relationship.


There's no way Airbus can "push" anything on China that China isn't willing to take. :shakehead:

seahawk wrote:
It is not an easy deal. Apart from reaching an agreement with the Chinese, Airbus will also need to show a future use for the hangars and the workforce at the European factories that would be made redundant, if they do not want to anger the French and German governments.


A380s would still be manufactured in TLS and flown to TSN for completion. I'm not seeing a big labour or political issue, frankly.

IADFCO wrote:
Yes and no. You can examine a large composite wing box to your heart's content, but you won't be able to reproduce it if you don't know the sequence of manufacturing steps, the curing temperatures, pressures, etc. Similarly, you may know the flight control laws in excruciating detail as a pilot, but you need to have access to the underlying source code to be able to modify them or adapt them to a different aircraft.


Exactly my point! :yes:

Some seem to believe China can learn everything from Airbus or Boeing by putting seats and toilets in a plane.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:32 pm

seahawk wrote:
It is not an easy deal. Apart from reaching an agreement with the Chinese, Airbus will also need to show a future use for the hangars and the workforce at the European factories that would be made redundant, if they do not want to anger the French and German governments. So imho the A380 decision will probably linked to a project launch for something different.


If a cooperation and setting up a finishing center for A380 in China will sell more A380, it comes out as a plus for XFW. There is enough outfitting work that can be done in XFW. Increased production of A320 family aircraft needs more out fitting. You could even fly a few A350 and A330 to XFW. But one should also not forget that XFW does a lot of the pre FAL work for the A380. No workers will be made redundant in XFW, they will be moved. The buildings will be used, one Hanger used for A380 outfitting, houses now the #4 A320 family FAL in XFW.

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