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jetskipper
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu May 03, 2018 7:25 pm

For the local spotters, Air Force One will be at SBN May 10th around 19:00.

https://www.southbendtribune.com/news/p ... cc025.html
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Fri May 04, 2018 11:32 pm

The Elkhart Indiana airport is making improvments to airfield lighting and guidance signs as is South Bend International. Both airports are going to energy efficient LED lighting.

https://www.abc57.com/news/elkhart-airp ... enovations
 
ibthebigd
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue May 08, 2018 8:49 am

Any updates on GYY getting any Air Service?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Wed May 09, 2018 12:16 am

Booked a ticket today for October on American's service from DFW to SBN. Just checking a few sample days it appears that prebooks for the service is going great and some days around the July 4th holidays have just a few of the Economy Plus seats and a few First Class seats left. Flights both ways from SBN to CLT show a similar trend. When AA left in 2003 they had a bunch of AAdvantage members in the area and a lot of them Elites so I'm sure those folks are happy AA is back.
 
jetskipper
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu May 10, 2018 8:19 pm

SBN Spotters:

Air Force 2 Scheduled to land at 17:40 local

Air Force 1 Scheduled to land at 18:15 local
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Mon May 21, 2018 1:03 am

This weekend with the Notre Dame Commencement Delta is operating Mainline B717 aircraft from SBN to their ATL, DTW, and MSP hubs on select flights The surprise is on the Monday early evening inbound from ATL. There are only 6 empty seats left including only 1 left in First. Now the Inbound flight doesn't have anything to do with the commencement as the outbound flight does. Delta has talked about bringing mainline back to SBN for select ATL flights for awhile now. With American pre-bookings on both CLT and DFW looking real good and with this B717 flight selling 104 seats is a B717 R/T on a select ATL flight a foregone conclusion? Just Curious.

Incidentrly Delta starts operating a CRJ900 for the noon SBN-ATL flight next month so we will see how it does but it is just a matter of time before Delta starts moving away from the CRJ200 in SBN.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Mon May 21, 2018 12:45 pm

Here is a link to an article about Allegiant in Evansville vs Owensboro.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... 625766002/
 
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cleared2land
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Wed May 23, 2018 8:36 pm

SBN's numbers are up 3% on the year. With AA coming back next month there is a very good chance that SBN will see total pax counts to be near or above 800,000 next year. Last year there were about 610,000 total pax at SBN. Add what could be about 175,000 total pax for AA (4 round trips at an estimate of 60 pax per flight). I think SBN will clear 700,000 for sure in 2018.

The last time SBN saw 400,000 pax boardings was in the early 2000s. If 2019 gets SBN at or above 400,000 boardings it will be the best numbers in 2 decades.
 
FWAERJ
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu May 24, 2018 12:30 am

cleared2land wrote:
SBN's numbers are up 3% on the year. With AA coming back next month there is a very good chance that SBN will see total pax counts to be near or above 800,000 next year. Last year there were about 610,000 total pax at SBN. Add what could be about 175,000 total pax for AA (4 round trips at an estimate of 60 pax per flight). I think SBN will clear 700,000 for sure in 2018.

The last time SBN saw 400,000 pax boardings was in the early 2000s. If 2019 gets SBN at or above 400,000 boardings it will be the best numbers in 2 decades.


Glad to see SBN back on its feet, but while it doesn't really compete with SBN except in Warsaw, FWA should be doing a third consecutive year of record traffic this year. With the AA contract with Zimmer Biomet, I'd be interested to see how many Zimmer Biomet pax will use SBN instead of FWA, as AA and Zimmer Biomet could very well offer a choice for these high-yield pax.

Yeah, FWA lost EWR, but UA is moving EWR to mostly mainline O&D routes. But PHL is back and should more than help compensate due to higher frequency versus EWR, plus far more business ties to Philly than NYC here (Lincoln, Comcast, Wells Fargo). Toward the fall, I see room for another G4 route or two - maybe the return of LAS because LAS has gone all-Airbus, or maybe another Florida city (back when FL flew IND-SRQ, a double-digit percentage of pax came from Fort Wayne). The only problem right now at FWA is gate space, but the FWACAA has a plan to increase terminal capacity. Ferguson Road is going four-lane from Airport Expressway to FWA this year, and with it will come more parking (desperately needed). Then come late 2019/early 2020, there's plans to expand the FWA terminal from eight to ten gates.
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freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu May 24, 2018 1:30 am

More good things may be com ing top SBN. Prebookings on American for both CLT and DFW look very good. I could also see American using either B737-800 or Airbus A319 jets in SBN on the Notre Dame Football Weekends along with Delta's use of Mainline jets. All of Americans flights are sold out on those weekends.

SBN's EWR flights do quite well O/D and according to the DOT most of the other passengers making connections are going to BOS.

Speaking of Delta, Passenger loads to Atlanta are such that Delta is going to have to think about using larger jets. The CRJ200's aren't cutting it even with AA startring service to CLT. Delta is going to give travellers some relief in that the noon flight to ATL is going to a CRJ900 daily except on Wednesday. Most connecting traffic from Atlanta to South Bend uses this and the late afternoon flight. My own belief is that before the end of the year all Atlanta flights will be using CRJ900 aircraft or maybe a mix of mainline B717 and CRJ900's. Airport officials and the local DGS folks are keeping their fingers crossed . Demand is there they will just have to see if Delta respomnds.
 
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cleared2land
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu May 24, 2018 1:40 am

FWAERJ wrote:
cleared2land wrote:
SBN's numbers are up 3% on the year. With AA coming back next month there is a very good chance that SBN will see total pax counts to be near or above 800,000 next year. Last year there were about 610,000 total pax at SBN. Add what could be about 175,000 total pax for AA (4 round trips at an estimate of 60 pax per flight). I think SBN will clear 700,000 for sure in 2018.

The last time SBN saw 400,000 pax boardings was in the early 2000s. If 2019 gets SBN at or above 400,000 boardings it will be the best numbers in 2 decades.


Glad to see SBN back on its feet, but while it doesn't really compete with SBN except in Warsaw, FWA should be doing a third consecutive year of record traffic this year. With the AA contract with Zimmer Biomet, I'd be interested to see how many Zimmer Biomet pax will use SBN instead of FWA, as AA and Zimmer Biomet could very well offer a choice for these high-yield pax.

Yeah, FWA lost EWR, but UA is moving EWR to mostly mainline O&D routes. But PHL is back and should more than help compensate due to higher frequency versus EWR, plus far more business ties to Philly than NYC here (Lincoln, Comcast, Wells Fargo). Toward the fall, I see room for another G4 route or two - maybe the return of LAS because LAS has gone all-Airbus, or maybe another Florida city (back when FL flew IND-SRQ, a double-digit percentage of pax came from Fort Wayne). The only problem right now at FWA is gate space, but the FWACAA has a plan to increase terminal capacity. Ferguson Road is going four-lane from Airport Expressway to FWA this year, and with it will come more parking (desperately needed). Then come late 2019/early 2020, there's plans to expand the FWA terminal from eight to ten gates.


G4 has to add something to SBN and FWA. They have been very stagnant for far too long. I'm surprised that we haven't seen much from G4.

Hopefully PHL and CLT stick around at FWA. For SBN I hope DFW and CLT continue to book well.
 
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cleared2land
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu May 24, 2018 3:03 pm

Domestic Load Factor for Jan-Feb 2018

EVV 66.45%
FWA 80.85%
IND 77%
SBN 83.68%
 
jetskipper
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu May 24, 2018 4:29 pm

Looks like SBN-EWR is going back to double-daily in the fall.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Sat May 26, 2018 1:35 am

SBN had a minor emergency with a Skywest flight to Atlanta today. A halon extiguisher went off in the cargo hold and the aircraft had to return to SBN. Plane made several holding pattern turns burning off fuel before it landed safely.

http://www.wndu.com/content/news/Plane- ... 44391.html

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SKW ... /KSBN/KATL
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:02 pm

SBN to celebrate the inaugural flights by American Airlines on June 7th

http://flysbn.com/2018/06/06/south-bend ... -airlines/
 
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cleared2land
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:52 pm

freakyrat wrote:
SBN to celebrate the inaugural flights by American Airlines on June 7th

http://flysbn.com/2018/06/06/south-bend ... -airlines/



Looks like SBN is already undertaking the master plan remodel of the terminal. The new AA counter reflects the upgrades.

http://abc57.com/news/american-airlines ... al-airport
 
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cleared2land
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:55 pm

freakyrat wrote:
SBN to celebrate the inaugural flights by American Airlines on June 7th

http://flysbn.com/2018/06/06/south-bend ... -airlines/



Looks like the inaugural flight, 2871, is over an hour late :banghead:
 
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exFWAOONW
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:09 pm

AA may be 'something special in the air,' but on the ground, they suck. :duck:
Is just me, or is flying not as much fun anymore?
 
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cleared2land
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:18 pm

exFWAOONW wrote:
AA may be 'something special in the air,' but on the ground, they suck. :duck:


:lol: Something sure is special here. It's like being late on your first day at work.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:50 pm

cleared2land wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
SBN to celebrate the inaugural flights by American Airlines on June 7th

http://flysbn.com/2018/06/06/south-bend ... -airlines/



Looks like the inaugural flight, 2871, is over an hour late :banghead:


Thunderstorms north of DFW and a delay at dfw for who knows what.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:56 am

SBN's enplanements were up over 10% in April. From a little experimentation i did a sampling a few AA flights, AA it seems like is filling 54-60 seats on their CRJ700 flights to DFW with the afternoon flight appearing to do better than the morning flight. Nonetheless when SBN made their presentation they knew that they were flying 60 people to the DFW area every day and since AA started service they are averaging 112 daily enplaments to DFW. Some flights around the 4th of July holiday are booked pretty full as are the Notre Dame Football weekends. I didn't know what to expect out of the flights to CLT as the market data just wasn't there but those load factors are growing. Holiday load factors for both routes are around 86% on a 65 passenger CRJ700 so we are off to a good start and it is sure to keep up. American is offering better connections through DFW for those that need to travel to Texas and the Southwest US and through CLT for those that need to go to the Caribbean or up and down the Eastern Seabord. It is all something to build on and I just wonder if a CRJ700 flight to American's MIami Hub might be in SBN's future for Caribbean connections if CLT does well enough. I'm also begining to wonder with all the Elite AAdvantage members living in the Michiana area if American is going to sell more of the Firat Class seats on these flights than they presently are.
 
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cleared2land
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:20 pm

freakyrat wrote:
SBN's enplanements were up over 10% in April. From a little experimentation i did a sampling a few AA flights, AA it seems like is filling 54-60 seats on their CRJ700 flights to DFW with the afternoon flight appearing to do better than the morning flight. Nonetheless when SBN made their presentation they knew that they were flying 60 people to the DFW area every day and since AA started service they are averaging 112 daily enplaments to DFW. Some flights around the 4th of July holiday are booked pretty full as are the Notre Dame Football weekends. I didn't know what to expect out of the flights to CLT as the market data just wasn't there but those load factors are growing. Holiday load factors for both routes are around 86% on a 65 passenger CRJ700 so we are off to a good start and it is sure to keep up. American is offering better connections through DFW for those that need to travel to Texas and the Southwest US and through CLT for those that need to go to the Caribbean or up and down the Eastern Seabord. It is all something to build on and I just wonder if a CRJ700 flight to American's MIami Hub might be in SBN's future for Caribbean connections if CLT does well enough. I'm also begining to wonder with all the Elite AAdvantage members living in the Michiana area if American is going to sell more of the Firat Class seats on these flights than they presently are.



There will be a 10% increase in boardings for the remainder of each month in 2018 due to AA's return so for some months SBN will be posting nearly a 20% increase over last year. AA's numbers wont reflect until the June numbers come out so so far this year it is just organic improvements in LF. But this is great for SBN, it looks like Project Propel might already be showing it's benefit.
 
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cleared2land
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:24 pm

freakyrat wrote:
SBN's enplanements were up over 10% in April. From a little experimentation i did a sampling a few AA flights, AA it seems like is filling 54-60 seats on their CRJ700 flights to DFW with the afternoon flight appearing to do better than the morning flight. Nonetheless when SBN made their presentation they knew that they were flying 60 people to the DFW area every day and since AA started service they are averaging 112 daily enplaments to DFW. Some flights around the 4th of July holiday are booked pretty full as are the Notre Dame Football weekends. I didn't know what to expect out of the flights to CLT as the market data just wasn't there but those load factors are growing. Holiday load factors for both routes are around 86% on a 65 passenger CRJ700 so we are off to a good start and it is sure to keep up. American is offering better connections through DFW for those that need to travel to Texas and the Southwest US and through CLT for those that need to go to the Caribbean or up and down the Eastern Seabord. It is all something to build on and I just wonder if a CRJ700 flight to American's MIami Hub might be in SBN's future for Caribbean connections if CLT does well enough. I'm also begining to wonder with all the Elite AAdvantage members living in the Michiana area if American is going to sell more of the Firat Class seats on these flights than they presently are.



FWA's numbers are consistently up as well. EVV doesn't seem to publish their numbers but according to BTS they are up 1.76% as of the close of March.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Jun 26, 2018 5:37 pm

cleared2land wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
quote]


There will be a 10% increase in boardings for the remainder of each month in 2018 due to AA's return so for some months SBN will be posting nearly a 20% increase over last year. AA's numbers wont reflect until the June numbers come out so so far this year it is just organic improvements in LF. But this is great for SBN, it looks like Project Propel might already be showing it's benefit.


Just put in some sample reservations this week and I'm totally impressed also with the loads to Charlotte. Everyone connected to making these flights possible knew that DFW would work out but I'm amazed that Charlotte is working to. For a startup service SBN is doing quite well and Project Propel seems to be working as we are starting to see the Economy Comfort and First Class seats being booked now. It's not all leasure travel.

On another front Frontier just announced a seasonal return to BMI which leaves SBN as the only city they haven't returned to. I'm just wondering if the same route that they did to BMI which is a DEN-BMI-MCO out and back would also work in SBN on days that Allegiant doesn't fly to SFB. A seasonal DEN-SBN-MYR out and back may even work for SBN. We also do not know if we will have twice weekly SBN-CUN starting up this fall and winter so that would even add to the numbers. Great times for SBN
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Jun 26, 2018 5:38 pm

EVV is also working with United to establish EVV-EWR.
 
FWAERJ
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:16 pm

freakyrat wrote:
EVV is also working with United to establish EVV-EWR.


Probably won't happen because UA is moving EWR to mostly O&D markets, which is a key reason why FWA-EWR was chopped (not enough O&D).

Future UA East Coast connecting routes will all be through the IAD hub. The Metrorail extension to IAD opens next year, so expect a few O&D routes for DC, too, with the benefit of an airport without slot controls.
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cleared2land
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:07 pm

FWAERJ wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
EVV is also working with United to establish EVV-EWR.


Probably won't happen because UA is moving EWR to mostly O&D markets, which is a key reason why FWA-EWR was chopped (not enough O&D).

Future UA East Coast connecting routes will all be through the IAD hub. The Metrorail extension to IAD opens next year, so expect a few O&D routes for DC, too, with the benefit of an airport without slot controls.



I love the SBN-EWR route but EWR is probably one of the worst airport to fly into and out of. I have been through EWR for work many times this year by way of CLT, DAY, CMH and IND and the shortest delay I have had is 3 hours. I've never flown to or through an airport that has delays like Newark. Throw in really crappy concessions when delayed at night it is really a miserable experience. I would love to see UA shift the feeder flights from SBN to IAD and then have another airline start SBN to JFK or LGA (same for FWA).
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:39 pm

cleared2land wrote:
FWAERJ wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
EVV is also working with United to establish EVV-EWR.


Probably won't happen because UA is moving EWR to mostly O&D markets, which is a key reason why FWA-EWR was chopped (not enough O&D).

Future UA East Coast connecting routes will all be through the IAD hub. The Metrorail extension to IAD opens next year, so expect a few O&D routes for DC, too, with the benefit of an airport without slot controls.



I love the SBN-EWR route but EWR is probably one of the worst airport to fly into and out of. I have been through EWR for work many times this year by way of CLT, DAY, CMH and IND and the shortest delay I have had is 3 hours. I've never flown to or through an airport that has delays like Newark. Throw in really crappy concessions when delayed at night it is really a miserable experience. I would love to see UA shift the feeder flights from SBN to IAD and then have another airline start SBN to JFK or LGA (same for FWA).


Delta has had an open RFP with DGS at SBN for a SBN-JFK flight for about 5 years now. Bo if they coukld get slots they would probably have had SBN-LGA going by now as the SBN-NYC market is in high demand. If SBN just could get the O/D market up a bit for BOS Delta could use it for feeder flights up and down the East Coast.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:43 pm

The United SBN-EWR flight is so important to UA that if the inbound flight ever gets cancelled the night before they will find an airplane and crew and ferry a plane into SBN from all kinds of odd airports like PVD, CHS, BNA etc. so that they can operate that morning flight the next day.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:57 pm

To handle the overflow AA is adding another CRJ700 flight from DFW to SBN at 300 PM on the Friday before the ND home opener against Michigan. There are still seats on this flight and the late evening one but the 1 PM flight is sold out. Lots of ND Alumni live and work in the DFW area.

I kind of wondered how American would handle things on college football weekends as Delta upgrades to mainline on those weekends.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:10 am

freakyrat wrote:
The United SBN-EWR flight is so important to UA that if the inbound flight ever gets cancelled the night before they will find an airplane and crew and ferry a plane into SBN from all kinds of odd airports like PVD, CHS, BNA etc. so that they can operate that morning flight the next day.


Here is an example. An aircraft was just ferried to SBN to operate the morning Newark flight after tonight's inbound flight from Newark was cancelled.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ASQ3183
 
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cleared2land
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:56 pm

freakyrat wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
The United SBN-EWR flight is so important to UA that if the inbound flight ever gets cancelled the night before they will find an airplane and crew and ferry a plane into SBN from all kinds of odd airports like PVD, CHS, BNA etc. so that they can operate that morning flight the next day.


Here is an example. An aircraft was just ferried to SBN to operate the morning Newark flight after tonight's inbound flight from Newark was cancelled.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ASQ3183



What makes SBN so special to UA? Not that I mind :D I am assuming they grab either a frame that had a flight later in the day or one that was a spare.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:55 pm

cleared2land wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
The United SBN-EWR flight is so important to UA that if the inbound flight ever gets cancelled the night before they will find an airplane and crew and ferry a plane into SBN from all kinds of odd airports like PVD, CHS, BNA etc. so that they can operate that morning flight the next day.


Here is an example. An aircraft was just ferried to SBN to operate the morning Newark flight after tonight's inbound flight from Newark was cancelled.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ASQ3183



What makes SBN so special to UA? Not that I mind :D I am assuming they grab either a frame that had a flight later in the day or one that was a spare.


I don't know why but they rarely cancel that morning flight to Newark. They will find a plane and crew and operate it. They also must have a lot of high priced O/D passengers on that flight.
 
FromGSPtoChi
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:55 pm

I just discovered there are plans to take the South Shore Line(SSL) directly into the SBN. Has this been discussed? This would help draw more NWI traffic away from ORD/MDW. Other changes plan will cut the travel time from South Bend to Chicago down to 90 min. That would make it under an hour to places like Gary/Hammond.

I hope they have plans to extend it directly into GYY.

http://sbn-rail-reroute.com/
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Sat Jul 07, 2018 7:49 pm

FromGSPtoChi wrote:
I just discovered there are plans to take the South Shore Line(SSL) directly into the SBN. Has this been discussed? This would help draw more NWI traffic away from ORD/MDW. Other changes plan will cut the travel time from South Bend to Chicago down to 90 min. That would make it under an hour to places like Gary/Hammond.

I hope they have plans to extend it directly into GYY.

http://sbn-rail-reroute.com/


15 million just to cut out the current circuitous reverse “C” and reduce travel time by up to 10 minutes? I think the better option would be to extend service into the downtown area, where there is already existing track and make SBN a stop rather than a termination point. This would make SBN even more accessible to South Bend residents while also aiding SSL riders who now have to take a bus to SBN to get on the SSL to Chicago.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:45 pm

The South Shore would have to share that existing track with Norfolk Southern. Not going to happen. If they wanted to just make the airport a stop they would still have to get track to the airport. The airport is presently looking to demolish a bunch of substandard structures on their property just west of the approach end of Runway 36. There is also a trailer park there to be removed. That area will then be used to build an International Freight Hub. I pulled up the airpoert on Google Maps and drew in a compromise route for the South Shore that would invoilve less property of Ardmore residents. I would turn the South Shore north on the west side of the Bypass and then turn it east under the Bypass along the North side of Edison Road then cross Lincolnway and route it around the end of Runway 36 and then NE into the west side of the terminal wherer the Car Rental lot is presently as described in the Master Plan Facilities Booklet which is on the airport's website. That booklet describes a really updated remodel plan for the main terminal, concourse, adjacent roadways, parking lots etc. SBN has already started pieces of it in remodelling a few of the ticket counters with more to come. They are also installing or have installed a CUPPS system in the terminal and are replacinng all the airport lighting signs etc. with LED lighting. All told including a terminal ramp rebuild which they desperately need and with the exception of the South Shore move I would say they are going to spend somewhere North of 30 million dollars for all the upgrades.

http://flysbn.com/wp-content/uploads/20 ... ooklet.pdf
 
jetskipper
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:39 pm

It looks like Frontier added LFT and HSV to DEN and MCO today. Both are similar sized to EVV, FWA and SBN. Wonder when Frontier will give Indiana some attention?
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:51 pm

jetskipper wrote:
It looks like Frontier added LFT and HSV to DEN and MCO today. Both are similar sized to EVV, FWA and SBN. Wonder when Frontier will give Indiana some attention?


They can easily return to SBN seasonally with service to DEN. They would average 120 or so on their A319's.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:29 pm

freakyrat wrote:
jetskipper wrote:
It looks like Frontier added LFT and HSV to DEN and MCO today. Both are similar sized to EVV, FWA and SBN. Wonder when Frontier will give Indiana some attention?


They can easily return to SBN seasonally with service to DEN. They would average 120 or so on their A319's.


F9 is no longer a connecting airline in Denver and most of SBN's passengers made connections in DEN to other flights. Nonetheless while they were in SBN they flew close to 22,000 passengers each way on 189 flights for an average of 118 per flight on a 133 seat Airbus A319. The funny thing is United knows this but flying their Airbus A319 daily to Denver would cost to much. United could however offer twice daily E175 flights to DEN if they wanted to. The market is there. They and the airport know it.
 
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cleared2land
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Indiana Aviation: Part 17

Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:15 am

The continuation of Indiana aviation with a focus on EVV, FWA, GYY, IND & SBN
 
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cleared2land
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Re: Indiana Aviation: Part 17

Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:33 am

SBN's May numbers have been released and they are up 6% on the year. Looking at the new AA service to DFW and CLT that should bump their numbers by about 20%-25% for each month remaining in the year. Doing the math AA should contribute to 42,000 enplanements this year at least which should get the numbers to 366,000 enplanements (732,000 total on/off).

For international traffic they are averaging 10 a month which is more than their annual estimate of 75.

FWA had 31,657 enplanements in May, up nearly 5%.

My prediction based on current trends is:
SBN :: 731,640 total pax in 2018
FWA :: 779,712 total pax in 2018
 
FWAERJ
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Re: Indiana Aviation: Part 17

Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:32 am

cleared2land wrote:
SBN's May numbers have been released and they are up 6% on the year. Looking at the new AA service to DFW and CLT that should bump their numbers by about 20%-25% for each month remaining in the year. Doing the math AA should contribute to 42,000 enplanements this year at least which should get the numbers to 366,000 enplanements (732,000 total on/off).

For international traffic they are averaging 10 a month which is more than their annual estimate of 75.

FWA had 31,657 enplanements in May, up nearly 5%.

My prediction based on current trends is:
SBN :: 731,640 total pax in 2018
FWA :: 779,712 total pax in 2018


If the FWA numbers are true, they aren't too far off from FWA's Great Recession-era goal of 800,000 pax on/off total. I bet PHL had a lot to do with the increase, along with increased frequency from G4.

Now, if only DL could kick the OO CR2 habit at FWA and go to the CR9 or E175 on ATL, we could be even closer. I'm shocked that it's been several years now since AA upgraded FWA-CLT to 2x daily CR7s and DL hasn't responded like they normally do. AA's now number one at FWA, and I suspect that much of it has to do with AA offering F on their two longest flights from FWA (40% of their daily FWA flights, actually) and DL making you go to IND if you want F. This isn't really an OO issue, either, as they RON the CR7 from DFW at FWA now. If this were a normal DL small station, we'd be seeing the 717 from FWA. Oh well, there's always hope by way of YMX and TLS for the A220 at FWA by the time an A220 base opens at ATL.
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jetskipper
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Re: Indiana Aviation: Part 17

Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:46 am

Nice to see rising numbers.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana Aviation: Part 17

Wed Aug 01, 2018 6:37 pm

jetskipper wrote:
Nice to see rising numbers.


AA is beginning to sell out some afternoon flights in both markets out of SBN. I always thought DFW would do well but surprisingly putting in some sample bookings on AA's website has revealed that CLT on some days is filling more seats than DFW. For the first month of service AA is filling an average of 57 seats on a 65 passenger mixed class jet for a load factor of 87% and even on slow days the load factor is 81%. Their revenue management people are also manageing fares quite well for these markets so I'm sure they are already profitible especially if they sell 5 or 6 FC seats on each flight.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana Aviation: Part 17

Wed Aug 01, 2018 6:48 pm

Irregardless of OO's maintenance base at SBN, SBN officials have been meeting with DL officials requestinmg Mainline upgrades for some flights to ATL. Delta is currently operating an afternoon CRJ900 6X a week on the route. Around the same time that AA started service in SBN DL did operate a Mainline B717 flight into SBN from ATL and flew it to MSP on the first flight the next day. These flights were no way connected to anything going on at Notre Dame and had an average of 86 passengers each. So Delta knows that the market is there.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:48 am

I believe the A220 will also eventually be in SBN for the long overdue DL proposed flight to JFK.
 
cvgComair
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:58 pm

freakyrat wrote:
I believe the A220 will also eventually be in SBN for the long overdue DL proposed flight to JFK.

The route is only 700 miles, such a route would almost certainly be an E170/CR7. If SBN-ATL can’t even sustain mainline, a route to JFK certainly will not be able to.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:04 pm

DL will run SBN-DTW on the 717 on Sundays in September.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:31 pm

freakyrat wrote:
I believe the A220 will also eventually be in SBN for the long overdue DL proposed flight to JFK.


hahahaha, funny!
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cleared2land
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:09 pm

Some random thoughts......

Personally I'd like to see SBN continue to excel/stabilize on DFW & CLT. It is very important for those routes to show stability before we see anything else develop at SBN. Airlines are not what they used to be and they are very stingy when it comes to route development, especially at SBN. There is just too much leakage due to proximity to ORD and MDW which translates to high-risk for new service at SBN. Whatever happens will be slow until the market shows that it can handle more service.

Even if SBN can stop all leakage (which they won't) they will only be looking at about 2 million combined on/off pax.

I wonder how UA would respond if DL did add SBN-JFK. My bet is only one would survive. And it might not even be a matter of how UA would respond it might be all up to the bookings and which route the traveling public opts for.

G4 has been so darn stagnant at SBN (and FWA for that matter) for a very long time. They might just be at their peak with the routes that they are offering and we don't really see anything happen. I wish G4 had smaller planes so we could get more frequency.

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