freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:00 pm

EWR-FWA does not have the proper Load Factors to break even. They need a 70% load factor every flight to break even and aren't even getting that. SBN averages over 80% with 40-45 people per flight.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:01 pm

EWR-FWA does not have the proper Load Factors to break even. They need a 70% load factor every flight to break even and aren't even getting that. SBN averages over 80% with 40-45 people per flight.
 
FWAERJ
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:27 pm

freakyrat wrote:
EWR-FWA does not have the proper Load Factors to break even. They need a 70% load factor every flight to break even and aren't even getting that. SBN averages over 80% with 40-45 people per flight.


This is largely because FWA travelers have a very strong preference for LGA to this day. People here will add an extra 2 to 3 hours in transit time over a nonstop FWA-EWR just so they can use LGA and add an extra hour or two to their total travel time. In addition, DL and AA have been stronger at FWA than UA for the past decade - I’m sure there’s contracts at play here.

Proof: DL carries just as many passengers FWA-DTW-LGA per day as UA carries FWA-EWR and does it with higher average fares and yields. Furthermore, DL has higher average fares and yields than UA’a nonstop on FWA-DTW-EWR plus 20% of the market.

The fault lies solely at the hands of local travelers. Had DL started FWA-LGA, I bet we would be seeing E175s by now.
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jetskipper
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:47 am

freakyrat wrote:
Now for speculation. What jets are they going to use in SBN? They would have to use CRJ9's or E175's for Dallas because they can fill those seats and FWA uses CRJ9's, for CLT I do not know.



Looks like it’s is going to be 2 CRJ-700s a day to each CLT and DFW. More lift than I had expected.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:27 am

flyinryan99 wrote:
FWAERJ wrote:
flyinryan99 wrote:

Can they? The flights are being downguaged to CR7s this spring. Probably the more appropriate aircraft for the mission.


There’s also the SkyWest factor - they fly the CR7 (not the CR9), have a DFW crew base, and have a FWA maintenance base that is now maintaining the larger CRJs.

Nice try...I’ve been told by multiple different sources that route performance is why it’s downguaged. Lucky to get PHL back because of state wide tax incentives.


I believe it is really a realignment of Regional Flying for American to their wholly owned subsidiary PSA Airlines and away from Mesa who were operating the DFW flights. PSA does not have as many CRJ9's as Mesa does. Incidently there were only a few empty seats coming up from DFW on my fight to FWA in October. Also the SBN flights only need two aircraft. The morning flights go out in the morning to both DFW and CLT. When they return the CLT flight returns as CLT-SBN-DFW and the DFW flight returns as DFW-SBN-CLT then the two aircraft return at night. This makes for better aircraft utilization and I'll bet that is what they want to do at FWA also.
 
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:38 am

jetskipper wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
Now for speculation. What jets are they going to use in SBN? They would have to use CRJ9's or E175's for Dallas because they can fill those seats and FWA uses CRJ9's, for CLT I do not know.



Looks like it’s is going to be 2 CRJ-700s a day to each CLT and DFW. More lift than I had expected.


64-seat dual class aircraft. Morning flights go SBN-DFW and SBN-CLT. Afternoon returns do CLT-SBN-DFW and DFW-SBN-CLT then the two aircraft come back to SBN late and start it all over the next day. Wholly owned American subsidiary PSA will operate the flights.

My guess for gate space will be this: Pet relief area will be moved to Gate 1. Jet Bridges will be reinstalled on Gates 2 and 4. American will utilize gates 2 and 3 with Allegiant moving their closely spaced flights to Gate 4. These Bridges are 3/4 height and can reach door sill heights of a B757-300 same as Gate 9.

As soon as spring comes SBN will also begin a major 3 million dollar ramp rebuild as it needs it. American's ramp is reinforced concrete so it would be the last to be rebuilt. This rebuild will level the ramp and adjacent taxiway and allow Delta to use Airbus A320 aircraft again during ND Football season. Right now because of door sill issues and the slope of the ramp they are limited to B737-800 sized aircraft at their gates.
 
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:11 pm

Not any groundbreaking information but a confirmation that the airport is trying to attract international passenger and cargo flights.

https://www.southbendtribune.com/news/b ... abc50.html
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:56 pm

jetskipper wrote:
Not any groundbreaking information but a confirmation that the airport is trying to attract international passenger and cargo flights.

https://www.southbendtribune.com/news/b ... abc50.html


The big hangup was getting the USDA to approve the incineration facilities and the plans for regulated garbage disposal off international flights however nothing is mentioned in the article in regard to that.

Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.
Allegiant has approached the airport in the past concerning service to Cancun but is not presently set up for international flights.

My bet would be on initial piublic charters to Cancun and Nassau with one of the travel agencies utilizing Sun Country Airlines as they are set up for international flights. They are also close by in Minneapolis which involves less ferry time.
 
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:04 pm

freakyrat wrote:
Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.


Just curious, is there really that much demand to justify such a flight?
 
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:25 pm

IndyHoosier wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.


Just curious, is there really that much demand to justify such a flight?


I'm not sure. I know they have business over in Ireland. I know for sure there is business for flights to the Yucatan as surveys have shown that within a 60 mile radius of SBN that some 15,000 trips a year are taken to Cancun.
 
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alancostello
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:57 pm

freakyrat wrote:
Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.


As a Dublin native studying at ND this would make my life a lot easier, if it's EI there's massive potential for onwards travel to Europe with their extensive network, if it's Norwegian at least it will be cheap. ND alone has two schools and a research institute in Ireland as well as internship programmes, so could make significant use of this. Aer Lingus launched a similar flight with questionable demand on a 757 to BDL 18 months ago which has been a great success and has now gone daily, long and thin with up-gauging potential is their plan for future growth as they have eight A321LRs en route over the next three years.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:01 pm

alancostello wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.


As a Dublin native studying at ND this would make my life a lot easier, if it's EI there's massive potential for onwards travel to Europe with their extensive network, if it's Norwegian at least it will be cheap. ND alone has two schools and a research institute in Ireland as well as internship programmes, so could make significant use of this. Aer Lingus launched a similar flight with questionable demand on a 757 to BDL 18 months ago which has been a great success and has now gone daily, long and thin with up-gauging potential is their plan for future growth as they have eight A321LRs en route over the next three years.


Not a chance
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uconn99
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:14 pm

alancostello wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.


As a Dublin native studying at ND this would make my life a lot easier, if it's EI there's massive potential for onwards travel to Europe with their extensive network, if it's Norwegian at least it will be cheap. ND alone has two schools and a research institute in Ireland as well as internship programmes, so could make significant use of this. Aer Lingus launched a similar flight with questionable demand on a 757 to BDL 18 months ago which has been a great success and has now gone daily, long and thin with up-gauging potential is their plan for future growth as they have eight A321LRs en route over the next three years.


Aer Lingus into South Bend? I doubt that would happen and you can't compare SBN to BDL, completely different markets. Also, the Aer Lingus BDL-DUB flight began as 4x weekly in the fall/winter went daily in spring and summer, nothing has changed and the flight at the moment is 4x weekly and will go back to daily in the spring.
 
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:32 am

uconn99 wrote:
alancostello wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.


As a Dublin native studying at ND this would make my life a lot easier, if it's EI there's massive potential for onwards travel to Europe with their extensive network, if it's Norwegian at least it will be cheap. ND alone has two schools and a research institute in Ireland as well as internship programmes, so could make significant use of this. Aer Lingus launched a similar flight with questionable demand on a 757 to BDL 18 months ago which has been a great success and has now gone daily, long and thin with up-gauging potential is their plan for future growth as they have eight A321LRs en route over the next three years.


Aer Lingus into South Bend? I doubt that would happen and you can't compare SBN to BDL, completely different markets. Also, the Aer Lingus BDL-DUB flight began as 4x weekly in the fall/winter went daily in spring and summer, nothing has changed and the flight at the moment is 4x weekly and will go back to daily in the spring.


Do not know what carrier it is but rumor has it that Norwegian and Rynair are interested. Norwegian and Aer Lingus both have Airbus A321LR's on order that could do the trip nonstop and Rynair's B737 MAX8 would need a stop in Iceland. This is down the road a bit though. With advertising all three airlines could drag enough bodies from the Michiana area plus the southside of Chicago to fill the seats that Notre Dame doesn't fill. Reducing the South Shore run to Chicago to 90 minutes also factors into the equation. Personally I believe Notre Dame had more to do in getting the U. S. Customs facitlity at the airport than others did.
 
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:50 am

Midwestindy wrote:
alancostello wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.


As a Dublin native studying at ND this would make my life a lot easier, if it's EI there's massive potential for onwards travel to Europe with their extensive network, if it's Norwegian at least it will be cheap. ND alone has two schools and a research institute in Ireland as well as internship programmes, so could make significant use of this. Aer Lingus launched a similar flight with questionable demand on a 757 to BDL 18 months ago which has been a great success and has now gone daily, long and thin with up-gauging potential is their plan for future growth as they have eight A321LRs en route over the next three years.


Not a chance


Never say Never. You never know what Notre Dame has up their sleeve. I feel the University had a say in bringing American back to South Bend as their students and employees of companies like Zimmer Biomet do a lot of travellng to Texas. Notre Dame being in the ACC also does a lot of business and travel to the Carolinas. The Newark flight on United is especially popular with students from the East Coast. Notre Dame has a significant amount of students from the Boston area who use this flight as their connection. Right now according to DOT reports 20 or so passengers daily out of South Bend connect to Boston. if that would double it would be highly likely for Delta to run a daily regional jet flight from South Bend to Boston
 
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:36 am

freakyrat wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
alancostello wrote:

As a Dublin native studying at ND this would make my life a lot easier, if it's EI there's massive potential for onwards travel to Europe with their extensive network, if it's Norwegian at least it will be cheap. ND alone has two schools and a research institute in Ireland as well as internship programmes, so could make significant use of this. Aer Lingus launched a similar flight with questionable demand on a 757 to BDL 18 months ago which has been a great success and has now gone daily, long and thin with up-gauging potential is their plan for future growth as they have eight A321LRs en route over the next three years.


Not a chance


Never say Never. You never know what Notre Dame has up their sleeve. I feel the University had a say in bringing American back to South Bend as their students and employees of companies like Zimmer Biomet do a lot of travellng to Texas. Notre Dame being in the ACC also does a lot of business and travel to the Carolinas. The Newark flight on United is especially popular with students from the East Coast. Notre Dame has a significant amount of students from the Boston area who use this flight as their connection. Right now according to DOT reports 20 or so passengers daily out of South Bend connect to Boston. if that would double it would be highly likely for Delta to run a daily regional jet flight from South Bend to Boston


On the topic of SBN-Europe, Notre Dame isn't a large multinational corporation, they are a university. They can't singlehandedly make a route work...even if an airline is looking for a secondary airport for Chicago, RFD, MKE, or GYY make more sense.
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freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Feb 01, 2018 2:11 am

Midwestindy wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Not a chance


Never say Never. You never know what Notre Dame has up their sleeve. I feel the University had a say in bringing American back to South Bend as their students and employees of companies like Zimmer Biomet do a lot of travellng to Texas. Notre Dame being in the ACC also does a lot of business and travel to the Carolinas. The Newark flight on United is especially popular with students from the East Coast. Notre Dame has a significant amount of students from the Boston area who use this flight as their connection. Right now according to DOT reports 20 or so passengers daily out of South Bend connect to Boston. if that would double it would be highly likely for Delta to run a daily regional jet flight from South Bend to Boston


On the topic of SBN-Europe, Notre Dame isn't a large multinational corporation, they are a university. They can't singlehandedly make a route work...even if an airline is looking for a secondary airport for Chicago, RFD, MKE, or GYY make more sense.


Agree with you somewhat but a 90 minute or less express South Shore connection to downtown Chicago could make a flight like this feasable.

On the subject of International flights out of South Bend though, flights to Cancun and the Bahamas do make sense on a carrier like Allegiant, Sun Country or Spirit as the airport has surveys from the surounding area that show that the flights would be successful. For example DOT studies show 15000 passengers yearly fly from the Michiana area to Cancun. That's enough to fill two Allegiant Airbus A319 flights per week.
 
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Feb 01, 2018 2:22 am

When thinking about Notre Dame, you also have to remember that they are not just the University. They are also the Congregation of Holy Cross and the Sisters of the Holy Cross who also run St. Mary's College. ND is also the primary Seminary for the Congregation of Holy Cross. So, one entity may not be able to generate enough traffic for a TATL flight, but the entire related group (as well as the local demand generated) could be enough to add at least once a week service some time down the road.
 
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Feb 01, 2018 2:23 am

freakyrat wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
freakyrat wrote:

Never say Never. You never know what Notre Dame has up their sleeve. I feel the University had a say in bringing American back to South Bend as their students and employees of companies like Zimmer Biomet do a lot of travellng to Texas. Notre Dame being in the ACC also does a lot of business and travel to the Carolinas. The Newark flight on United is especially popular with students from the East Coast. Notre Dame has a significant amount of students from the Boston area who use this flight as their connection. Right now according to DOT reports 20 or so passengers daily out of South Bend connect to Boston. if that would double it would be highly likely for Delta to run a daily regional jet flight from South Bend to Boston


On the topic of SBN-Europe, Notre Dame isn't a large multinational corporation, they are a university. They can't singlehandedly make a route work...even if an airline is looking for a secondary airport for Chicago, RFD, MKE, or GYY make more sense.


Agree with you somewhat but a 90 minute or less express South Shore connection to downtown Chicago could make a flight like this feasable.

On the subject of International flights out of South Bend though, flights to Cancun and the Bahamas do make sense on a carrier like Allegiant, Sun Country or Spirit as the airport has surveys from the surounding area that show that the flights would be successful. For example DOT studies show 15000 passengers yearly fly from the Michiana area to Cancun. That's enough to fill two Allegiant Airbus A319 flights per week.


What studies? You have brought that number up before, but not posted a link with it

adam47150 wrote:
When thinking about Notre Dame, you also have to remember that they are not just the University. They are also the Congregation of Holy Cross and the Sisters of the Holy Cross who also run St. Mary's College. ND is also the primary Seminary for the Congregation of Holy Cross. So, one entity may not be able to generate enough traffic for a TATL flight, but the entire related group (as well as the local demand generated) could be enough to add at least once a week service some time down the road.


You have to understand though, the whole sum of all that travel is tiny in the grand scheme of things if you are trying to fill 180+ seats.

http://www.anna.aero/2017/09/13/kansas- ... om-europe/
SBN isn't even on this list so there is a looong ways to go...
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freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:47 am

The airport has the data on Cancun trips. The Boston info came out of a DOTreport that tracks in demand city pairs at air carrier airports and it was brought up on this group by others.
Last edited by freakyrat on Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:47 am

The airport has the data on Cancun trips. The Boston info came out of a DOT that tracks in demand city pairs at air carrier airports and it was brought up on this group by others.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:31 pm

adam47150 wrote:
When thinking about Notre Dame, you also have to remember that they are not just the University. They are also the Congregation of Holy Cross and the Sisters of the Holy Cross who also run St. Mary's College. ND is also the primary Seminary for the Congregation of Holy Cross. So, one entity may not be able to generate enough traffic for a TATL flight, but the entire related group (as well as the local demand generated) could be enough to add at least once a week service some time down the road.


The cost effective aircraft that could provide Dublin flights and has the range for them is the Airbus A331LR which isn't even in service yet and made it's first flight yesterday. A flight to Dublin is all total speculation at this point. Cancun and the Bahamas are in the works with Cancun most likely becoming the first International flights out of SBN. Flights to Toronto are also on the airports radar . The reason that Air Georgian didn't start those on behalf of Air Canada several years ago is because SBN didn't have Customs avialable. Even with pre-clearance at Toronto, US Customs is still required to be available at the US destination airport.

The airport built the FIS and GAF because they were approached first by Allegiant in regard to flights to Cancun. The GAF was built so that International corporate flights that operate into SBN could clear Customs in SBN instead of other border airports. Customs has cleared close to 50 GA flights since they have been open for business.
 
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:35 pm

freakyrat wrote:
The airport has the data on Cancun trips. The Boston info came out of a DOT that tracks in demand city pairs at air carrier airports and it was brought up on this group by others.


freakyrat wrote:
adam47150 wrote:
When thinking about Notre Dame, you also have to remember that they are not just the University. They are also the Congregation of Holy Cross and the Sisters of the Holy Cross who also run St. Mary's College. ND is also the primary Seminary for the Congregation of Holy Cross. So, one entity may not be able to generate enough traffic for a TATL flight, but the entire related group (as well as the local demand generated) could be enough to add at least once a week service some time down the road.


The cost effective aircraft that could provide Dublin flights and has the range for them is the Airbus A331LR which isn't even in service yet and made it's first flight yesterday. A flight to Dublin is all total speculation at this point. Cancun and the Bahamas are in the works with Cancun most likely becoming the first International flights out of SBN. Flights to Toronto are also on the airports radar . The reason that Air Georgian didn't start those on behalf of Air Canada several years ago is because SBN didn't have Customs avialable. Even with pre-clearance at Toronto, US Customs is still required to be available at the US destination airport.

The airport built the FIS and GAF because they were approached first by Allegiant in regard to flights to Cancun. The GAF was built so that International corporate flights that operate into SBN could clear Customs in SBN instead of other border airports. Customs has cleared close to 50 GA flights since they have been open for business.


It looks like nothing is "in the works" at this point, according to this interview from today lol.
http://www.insideindianabusiness.com/st ... l-nonstops

I appreciate your enthusiasm though, but I have to see the "airports" data for myself. Considering you brought up SBN to the Bahamas I actually have that data...
SBN(MSA)-Bahmas is the 92nd largest US market in the country at around 4 PDEW, tens of other larger markets are more likely to be added before SBN-Bahamas
http://www.tourismtoday.com/sites/defau ... he_usa.pdf
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FWAERJ
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:31 pm

I appreciate your enthusiasm though, but I have to see the "airports" data for myself. Considering you brought up SBN to the Bahamas I actually have that data...
SBN(MSA)-Bahmas is the 92nd largest US market in the country at around 4 PDEW, tens of other larger markets are more likely to be added before SBN-Bahamas
http://www.tourismtoday.com/sites/defau ... he_usa.pdf[/quote]

And FWA is even worse, I must add. I doubt that either the FWACAA or a local travel agent is looking at FWA-NAS charters even though NAS has preclearance and FWA can handle preclearance flights like NAS and YYZ (but not flights like CUN that require a full FIS).

But there is something known as market stimulation. WN was famous for that in the 1980s and 1990s by offering fares on short hops that were competitive with driving, and when 9/11 hit, WN applied the same tactics to long flights. Even Herb said "we're not competing with other airlines, we're competing with ground transportation". In other words, the Southwest Effect often involved getting people of cars and into planes.

Then G4 changed the rules again. By offering service that only flew on peak days spaced around vacations and using used aircraft, leading to very inexpensive unbundled fares, G4 could offer a product that could compete on price with family road trips from small cities to leisure destinations. In other words, they didn't just let small airports compete with big ones to LAS, Phoenix, and Florida, but they made a lot of people end their road trip habit with a faster, cost-effective replacement. I know many here in FWA that stopped driving to Florida and MYR because G4 offered a product that was cost-competitive with driving and significantly faster. In other words, G4 changed age-old habits of piling a family into a Ford Explorer or Toyota Camry that were very hard to break. Now, G4 is repeating the same successful tactic in midsize cities like IND and CVG with equally successful results.
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freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:59 pm

When Allegiant approached SBN several years ago about establishing an FIS at SBN the thinking was for flights to Cancun which will probaby become SBN’s first international destination. At that time a travel agency was interested in charter flights to the Bahamas. Demographics and travel patterns change. It’s nice that the airport as now leveled with everybody on the status of the FIS and the USDA approval which now seems to be in order. We will see what the future brings on all this.

On the domestic front depending on the success of American’s flights to Charlotte they could possibly include a regional jet flight to DCA to capture the demand for BOS and LGA.

Personally I believe the airport will go after reestablishing a flight to DEN on United to connect to west coast connections. As F9 had average loads of 118 on an Airbus A319 United Express could offer two daily flights with an E175 and a CRJ200.

We will see if American’s CLT flights cut into the demand on Delta’s ATL flights or if Delta follows through with their original plans of several years ago to offer a morning B717 mainline flight to ATL. There is also still an open RFP with DGS at SBN for a Daily SBN-JFK Flight. If demand for BOS would double from where it is now maybe a daily regional jet flight would be in order on Delta. Right now it’s about 20 PED.

As far as domestic leisure traffic goes. The airport and the Myrtle Beach airport are working with G4 for seasonal flights

It is going to be an exciting time for SBN to see how all this plays out.
 
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:12 pm

FWAERJ wrote:
And FWA is even worse, I must add. I doubt that either the FWACAA or a local travel agent is looking at FWA-NAS charters even though NAS has preclearance and FWA can handle preclearance flights like NAS and YYZ (but not flights like CUN that require a full FIS).

But there is something known as market stimulation. WN was famous for that in the 1980s and 1990s by offering fares on short hops that were competitive with driving, and when 9/11 hit, WN applied the same tactics to long flights. Even Herb said "we're not competing with other airlines, we're competing with ground transportation". In other words, the Southwest Effect often involved getting people of cars and into planes.

Then G4 changed the rules again. By offering service that only flew on peak days spaced around vacations and using used aircraft, leading to very inexpensive unbundled fares, G4 could offer a product that could compete on price with family road trips from small cities to leisure destinations. In other words, they didn't just let small airports compete with big ones to LAS, Phoenix, and Florida, but they made a lot of people end their road trip habit with a faster, cost-effective replacement. I know many here in FWA that stopped driving to Florida and MYR because G4 offered a product that was cost-competitive with driving and significantly faster. In other words, G4 changed age-old habits of piling a family into a Ford Explorer or Toyota Camry that were very hard to break. Now, G4 is repeating the same successful tactic in midsize cities like IND and CVG with equally successful results.


Market stimulation is one thing, but why would SBN magically jump over the 70+ other MSAs(that could be stimulated as well) that aren't served nonstop from the Bahamas?
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:44 am

Midwestindy wrote:
FWAERJ wrote:
And FWA is even worse, I must add. I doubt that either the FWACAA or a local travel agent is looking at FWA-NAS charters even though NAS has preclearance and FWA can handle preclearance flights like NAS and YYZ (but not flights like CUN that require a full FIS).

But there is something known as market stimulation. WN was famous for that in the 1980s and 1990s by offering fares on short hops that were competitive with driving, and when 9/11 hit, WN applied the same tactics to long flights. Even Herb said "we're not competing with other airlines, we're competing with ground transportation". In other words, the Southwest Effect often involved getting people of cars and into planes.

Then G4 changed the rules again. By offering service that only flew on peak days spaced around vacations and using used aircraft, leading to very inexpensive unbundled fares, G4 could offer a product that could compete on price with family road trips from small cities to leisure destinations. In other words, they didn't just let small airports compete with big ones to LAS, Phoenix, and Florida, but they made a lot of people end their road trip habit with a faster, cost-effective replacement. I know many here in FWA that stopped driving to Florida and MYR because G4 offered a product that was cost-competitive with driving and significantly faster. In other words, G4 changed age-old habits of piling a family into a Ford Explorer or Toyota Camry that were very hard to break. Now, G4 is repeating the same successful tactic in midsize cities like IND and CVG with equally successful results.


Market stimulation is one thing, but why would SBN magically jump over the 70+ other MSAs(that could be stimulated as well) that aren't served nonstop from the Bahamas?[/quote)

I’m with you if anything any Bahamas flights would be seasonal travel agency charters. Cancun flights seasonal flights twice a week by G4.
 
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cleared2land
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:19 am

Midwestindy wrote:
FWAERJ wrote:
And FWA is even worse, I must add. I doubt that either the FWACAA or a local travel agent is looking at FWA-NAS charters even though NAS has preclearance and FWA can handle preclearance flights like NAS and YYZ (but not flights like CUN that require a full FIS).

But there is something known as market stimulation. WN was famous for that in the 1980s and 1990s by offering fares on short hops that were competitive with driving, and when 9/11 hit, WN applied the same tactics to long flights. Even Herb said "we're not competing with other airlines, we're competing with ground transportation". In other words, the Southwest Effect often involved getting people of cars and into planes.

Then G4 changed the rules again. By offering service that only flew on peak days spaced around vacations and using used aircraft, leading to very inexpensive unbundled fares, G4 could offer a product that could compete on price with family road trips from small cities to leisure destinations. In other words, they didn't just let small airports compete with big ones to LAS, Phoenix, and Florida, but they made a lot of people end their road trip habit with a faster, cost-effective replacement. I know many here in FWA that stopped driving to Florida and MYR because G4 offered a product that was cost-competitive with driving and significantly faster. In other words, G4 changed age-old habits of piling a family into a Ford Explorer or Toyota Camry that were very hard to break. Now, G4 is repeating the same successful tactic in midsize cities like IND and CVG with equally successful results.


Market stimulation is one thing, but why would SBN magically jump over the 70+ other MSAs(that could be stimulated as well) that aren't served nonstop from the Bahamas?


I've been a major supporter of SBN ever since I was a kid and I will defend them to the death. But with that being said I have to agree that if the 4 PDEW to Bahamas is correct then a single monthly flight is unlikely. Honestly, I think seasonal Mexico flights and maybe daily trips to Canada are what we will see. In addition international air cargo is an area where the airport has a major chance of succeeding in. The dream of SBN Europe flights are simply laughable I'm afraid but I'd love to be proved wrong.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:18 pm

I think the airport was approached by a travel agency that wanted to run charter flights to the Bahamas.
Seasonal flights to Cancun are probably a better bet.
Daily CRJ200 trips to CYYZ on Air Canada Regional in partnership with United is a possibility. An outside chance for a new airline might be a daily flight on Porter to CYTZ. Most logical is an RJ flight on Air Canada Regional.

SBN-Europe with a plane train connection to Chicago similar to what Norwegian does at Newburgh, NY with plane/bus connections to Manhattan is really a stretch and it would take a lot of coordination between the airline and the South Shore. Low Fares alone also wouldn't fill an A321LR which Norwegian gets in 2019 and is capable of reaching their hub in Dublin nonstop from SBN. Group Charters to Europe would be more like it.
Supposedly the University has approached an Irish based ULCC carrier about the possibility of a few flights to Dublin. This carrier also doesn't even have jets that are capable of the route nonstop. All grandios thinking with the earliest this could happen if ever is 2020 or 2021 so that is relly down the road a bit.

International Air Cargo is where the big market will be.

On the Domestic Front, Daily flights to BOS, DCA, and DEN are probably next on the airports agenda with seasonal leisure flights to MYR on G4 included in this mix. SBN boards 20 pax per day to BOS if that would double than a regional jet flight on Delta is a possibility. DEN as proven with F9 can board 75-118 pax per day so my bet is re-establishing daily DEN service is a highest priority for tha airport.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:45 pm

I think what the feeling is about SBN-Europe is that in the next few years O'Hare is going to become saturated and gate constrained and the European ULCC carriers such as WOW Air, Norwegian and Rynair (if they decide to start TATL flights) are going to start looking at the secondary airports in the Chicago area with FIS's such as RFD, MKE and SBN to operate their limited services. MKE and SBN both have train connections into Chicago and RFD has bus connections. A long shot for SBN as most of SBN's Customs customers will be primarily GA flights and freight plus occasional charters and future seasonal G4 flights to the Yucatan. But airports always have to build for the future and be ready and all three airporta are.
 
ibthebigd
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:38 am

freakyrat wrote:
I think what the feeling is about SBN-Europe is that in the next few years O'Hare is going to become saturated and gate constrained and the European ULCC carriers such as WOW Air, Norwegian and Rynair (if they decide to start TATL flights) are going to start looking at the secondary airports in the Chicago area with FIS's such as RFD, MKE and SBN to operate their limited services. MKE and SBN both have train connections into Chicago and RFD has bus connections. A long shot for SBN as most of SBN's Customs customers will be primarily GA flights and freight plus occasional charters and future seasonal G4 flights to the Yucatan. But airports always have to build for the future and be ready and all three airporta are.


Would GYY be a player in this scenario?
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Sun Feb 04, 2018 5:55 am

I understand that GYY is just building a Customs facility for General Aviation.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Sun Feb 04, 2018 6:04 pm

Boeing bases their fleet at GYY and could really use a GAF Customs facility at GYY.
 
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atypical
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:51 pm

FWAERJ wrote:
And FWA is even worse, I must add. I doubt that either the FWACAA or a local travel agent is looking at FWA-NAS charters even though NAS has preclearance and FWA can handle preclearance flights like NAS and YYZ (but not flights like CUN that require a full FIS).


Preclearance requires a FIS at the destination. Preclearance never mitigates the destination from being able to fully process all pax. FAA regs.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:36 am

From what I glean from recent local newspaper articles SBN’s FIS is now fully approved for commercial international flights. The GAF has already cleared 50 GA aircraft.
 
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:55 pm

Allegiant just added seasonal EVV-VPS. Begins June 8.
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LupineChemist
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:20 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
alancostello wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.


As a Dublin native studying at ND this would make my life a lot easier, if it's EI there's massive potential for onwards travel to Europe with their extensive network, if it's Norwegian at least it will be cheap. ND alone has two schools and a research institute in Ireland as well as internship programmes, so could make significant use of this. Aer Lingus launched a similar flight with questionable demand on a 757 to BDL 18 months ago which has been a great success and has now gone daily, long and thin with up-gauging potential is their plan for future growth as they have eight A321LRs en route over the next three years.


Not a chance


I could actually see a 2x weekly. Even as far away as Lake County would be a hell of a lot easier to use SBN than ORD. Could definitely see this being an attractive option not only for ND, but higher ups with Arcelor Mittal that want to get to/from the Michigan City plant. Whirlpool could also be a good corporate customer for that route to get to Europe.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:19 pm

LupineChemist wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
alancostello wrote:

As a Dublin native studying at ND this would make my life a lot easier, if it's EI there's massive potential for onwards travel to Europe with their extensive network, if it's Norwegian at least it will be cheap. ND alone has two schools and a research institute in Ireland as well as internship programmes, so could make significant use of this. Aer Lingus launched a similar flight with questionable demand on a 757 to BDL 18 months ago which has been a great success and has now gone daily, long and thin with up-gauging potential is their plan for future growth as they have eight A321LRs en route over the next three years.


Not a chance


I could actually see a 2x weekly. Even as far away as Lake County would be a hell of a lot easier to use SBN than ORD. Could definitely see this being an attractive option not only for ND, but higher ups with Arcelor Mittal that want to get to/from the Michigan City plant. Whirlpool could also be a good corporate customer for that route to get to Europe.


Rumor has it that Norwegian who gets their A321LR’s next year has been following the South Shore upgrades and the airport’s FIS with keen interest. Also it has been rumored that ND has been discussing Dublin service with another of Ireland’s ULCC carriers about providing these flights. That carrier would use a B737 MAX8 which would have to refuel in Iceland. These carriers know more of what is going on than we as the general public do.
 
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alancostello
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:59 pm

freakyrat wrote:
LupineChemist wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Not a chance


I could actually see a 2x weekly. Even as far away as Lake County would be a hell of a lot easier to use SBN than ORD. Could definitely see this being an attractive option not only for ND, but higher ups with Arcelor Mittal that want to get to/from the Michigan City plant. Whirlpool could also be a good corporate customer for that route to get to Europe.


Rumor has it that Norwegian who gets their A321LR’s next year has been following the South Shore upgrades and the airport’s FIS with keen interest. Also it has been rumored that ND has been discussing Dublin service with another of Ireland’s ULCC carriers about providing these flights. That carrier would use a B737 MAX8 which would have to refuel in Iceland. These carriers know more of what is going on than we as the general public do.


Norwegian Air International is legally based in Ireland but I'm not aware of any other ULCC based in Ireland that does transatlantic flights? It certainly isn't Ryanair, the only other option is Aer Lingus.
 
LupineChemist
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:41 pm

I would think EI over DY/DU just for the connections available.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:22 pm

IndyHoosier wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.


Just curious, is there really that much demand to justify such a flight?


Norwegian backdoor to Chicago/MWI without having to deal with the craziness and rep at GYY?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:31 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
IndyHoosier wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
Rumors are that the University of Notre Dame is working with a carrier in regards to twice weekly service to Dublin.


Just curious, is there really that much demand to justify such a flight?


Norwegian backdoor to Chicago/MWI without having to deal with the craziness and rep at GYY?


1. Norwegian already serves ORD starting in March
2. Milwaukee, Rockford, or Midway make much more sense...
3. We have discussed it before, but there isn't demand for that flight
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cleared2land
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:02 am

Air cargo operators interested in international air freight at SBN. Looks like 2018 will be good to SBN. Article doesn't go into much detail but the writing is on the wall.

http://www.wndu.com/content/news/StJose ... 66293.html
 
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cleared2land
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:11 am

SBN's new marketing effort: https://www.projectpropel.com
 
jetskipper
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:33 pm

cleared2land wrote:
Air cargo operators interested in international air freight at SBN. Looks like 2018 will be good to SBN. Article doesn't go into much detail but the writing is on the wall.

http://www.wndu.com/content/news/StJose ... 66293.html


I suppose I don’t understand how this is a logistic advantage. They mention east coast in the article, if they want goods on the east coast wouldn’t they just ship them directly to the east coast? It will be interesting to see what materializes out of this if anything.
 
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cleared2land
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:47 am

jetskipper wrote:
cleared2land wrote:
Air cargo operators interested in international air freight at SBN. Looks like 2018 will be good to SBN. Article doesn't go into much detail but the writing is on the wall.

http://www.wndu.com/content/news/StJose ... 66293.html


I suppose I don’t understand how this is a logistic advantage. They mention east coast in the article, if they want goods on the east coast wouldn’t they just ship them directly to the east coast? It will be interesting to see what materializes out of this if anything.


I think part of the issue is non-airport people talking about stuff they don't know enough about. I'm interested to see what further developments occur at SBN this year. It really seems that the authority is putting major effort and money into campaigns to decrease leakage and get businesses and citizens to use SBN on all fronts.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:16 am

cleared2land wrote:
jetskipper wrote:
cleared2land wrote:
Air cargo operators interested in international air freight at SBN. Looks like 2018 will be good to SBN. Article doesn't go into much detail but the writing is on the wall.

http://www.wndu.com/content/news/StJose ... 66293.html


I suppose I don’t understand how this is a logistic advantage. They mention east coast in the article, if they want goods on the east coast wouldn’t they just ship them directly to the east coast? It will be interesting to see what materializes out of this if anything.


I think part of the issue is non-airport people talking about stuff they don't know enough about. I'm interested to see what further developments occur at SBN this year. It really seems that the authority is putting major effort and money into campaigns to decrease leakage and get businesses and citizens to use SBN on all fronts.


If they can stop the leakage which they actually did in 2016 when the toll road and I94 had major construction then SBN could return to the days when all Delta flights were CRJ700's and also when United had E170's to ORD. The following routes could happen: American adding DCA. Delta adding BOS and SLC and United adding DEN/IAH and IAD.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Tue Feb 20, 2018 6:31 pm

The final figures for SBN are in for 2017. Emplanements were down 7% however this is somewhat skewed by the Delta's use of the B717-200 for the Notre Dame Football season flights vs the Airbus A320's that were used in 2016. Also the Toll Road and most of the I94 construction has been completed causing the leakage to return to Chicago Midway and O'Hare.

I would expect 2018 figures to get better with the addition of American Airlines flights starting June 7th to DFW and CLT. This will add over 52,992 new seats to the market this year and 93,440 seats in the market for a full year in 2019. This doesn't figure in any upguaging of aircraft on Notre Dame Football weekends.

Also not figured in for 2018 is any increase in size aircraft by Delta on SBN-ATL and any possible new service by Allegiant to MYR or United to DEN.

One bright spot is on the International front. When the General Aviation US Customs Clearance Facility opened the airport expected Customs to clear about 50 aircraft, well they cleared 58 and this figure is even going to increase in 2018.

Things can only get better with the airport pushing the marketing iniative with local businesses.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Fri Mar 09, 2018 6:43 pm

With the rise of narco-terrorism affecting Playa del Carmen, Cancun and Cozumel I wonder if there will still be a market for SBN-CUN flights or if seasonal flights to some other destinations like Grand Cayman or the Bahamas might be better options if promoted.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Indiana aviation thread - 2018

Sat Mar 17, 2018 1:35 am

Looks like a study is going to be cnducted on the feasibility of using SBN as an International freight hub as an alternative to ORD.

https://www.southbendtribune.com/news/l ... 807c6.html

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