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jasoncrh
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:23 pm

Seasonal since 2012 it 2013

quote="LoudounHound"]
enilria wrote:
FAQ


UA IAD-YVR JUN 0.3>0.1 JUL 0.3>0.1 AUG 0.2>0.1

How long has UA been flying this route? I remember AC did this seasonally years ago, but was unaware that UA had picked it up.[/quote]
 
Brickell305
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:28 pm

A388 wrote:
Can someone explain to me how to read these schedule changes? How should I read this:


AA PHL-SXM MAY 0.5>0 JUN 0.8>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.6>0.1


A388

In essence, AA plans to stop flying Philadelphia-Sint Maarten until August when they plan to resume with a once a week flight.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:36 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
Quite impressive, but not surprising given DL's stated goal to get to 150 flights @ BOS. I think the constant DL build-up is the "never-ending" response to B6's entrance to ATL and (BOS-)LGA, and MSP in May.

BOS-BNA is becoming something of blood bath. DL and WN at 3x, and B6 at 2x, in a market that didn't have non-stop service less than a decade ago.

BOS-CHS is an extremely profitable monopoly market for B6. It was only a matter of time before DL entered. I think there's enough room for both carriers in this market.

BOS-JAX is similar to BOS-CHS, in that it is also a B6 monopoly that DL is taking aim at. There are very few of those left.

Interesting that BOS-PIT is going up to 3x. Will this be the straw that causes AA to finally call it quits? (B6 also flies this 6x and commands very high average fares.)


B6 entrance into BOS-ATL/LGA is costing DL about $60 million a year. (BOS-ATL saw $70 drop on average fares for 500k annual passengers, BOS-LGA saw $80 to $90 drop on average fares for 300k passengers)

And that doesn't even include their entrance into JFK/FLL/MCO-ATL and BOS-MSP, which will probably be less costly, but will increase the total. Looking at all the ATL-Carribean sales B6 is running these days, DL is going to see depressed yield there too. No wonder DL is pissed at B6.

I don't see why AA needs to quit on BOS-PIT. It's larger than DL on both end of that route. I'd be surprised if DL is doing well financially on this route. OTOH, this will probably no longer be that profitable for B6.

As for BOS-JAX/CHS, they are certainly profitable routes, but B6 doesn't make as much of a killing on monopolies as DL does on its monopolies. The fare levels are about the same as BOS-RSW and about 10% higher than BOS-MCO.

I'm still really curious on where DL wants to add after this to get to 150? There is only so many more they can add to leisure locations. After that, they'd have to get on one of those routes to AA/UA/WN hubs. I just don't see how DL can possibly do well on those. BOS-SFO has been hugely bloody for everyone and doesn't appear to get any better soon.

My guess B6 at some point this year will add BOS-CVG, BOS/FLL-IND and JFK/FLL-MSP.

capejet wrote:
I think AA will keep BOS-PIT if the aircraft are involved in the rotation of other RJ routes AA flies out of BOS, especially BOS-ROC which I have been told (by a reliable source) is a very profitable route.

it's really not in B6 interest for AA to quit these routes, since a heathy AA operation at BOS will make it a lot harder for DL to grow.

iyerhari wrote:
BOS-YVR was operating seasonal every day from June until I believe sometime Sep. I think they are continuing with the same route.
DL has added some good routes from Logan and look to be committed here. DUB seasonal is also supposed to be start sometime first week of May. AUS, BUF, PIT, MKE, CHS, SAV, MSY, DUB - these are pretty good adds. I think DL flight planners maybe just looking at all the flights B6 has a monopoly and have them added.

Or just really high yielding markets out of BOS.

That would be a good strategy for DL, seeing that B6 has done the same to ATL/LGA and will also go into MSP. Except the problem for DL is that B6 makes its money in BOS off getting 5 to 10% revenue premium over legacy carriers or WN on routes with competition, while having dramatic lower cost. It really has very few monopolistic routes out of BOS. Whereas DL's highest yielding routes are to DL fortress hubs and those are mostly gone now. CVG is probably the lone really high yielding route left for DL after May. After that are IND.

My guess is that the best place for B6 to retaliate is entering CVG and IND this year. STL is probably more profitable to enter, but those other 2 are more important for their BOS station.
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:37 pm

LoudounHound wrote:
enilria wrote:
FAQ


UA IAD-YVR JUN 0.3>0.1 JUL 0.3>0.1 AUG 0.2>0.1

How long has UA been flying this route? I remember AC did this seasonally years ago, but was unaware that UA had picked it up.


UA's been flying IAD-YVR on summer Saturdays for quite a few years.
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AAvgeek744
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:43 pm

stlgph wrote:
RE: 4 BOS-KEF on Icelandair

I haven't looked or bothered to try to find, but what is the breakdown of the departures here, and are they on the Max or all 757?

In attending Icelandair Waves in 2016 I know in talking with some of the folks from IceAir that BOS was still their top market out of the U.S., and once the 737 came on, four a day on the route didn't seem as a "far off" idea, with a potential morning departures out of BOS in the mix.


Pulling up a couple of random dates in the summer equipment shows 3x 752, 1x 76W.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Sun Jan 14, 2018 9:30 pm

A388 wrote:
Can someone explain to me how to read these schedule changes? How should I read this:
AA PHL-SXM MAY 0.5>0 JUN 0.8>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.6>0.1
A388

The instructions are right there in the original post, as they always are.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
NYCVIE
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:34 pm

A388 wrote:
Can someone explain to me how to read these schedule changes? How should I read this:


AA PHL-SXM MAY 0.5>0 JUN 0.8>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.6>0.1


A388


AA won't be operating PHL-SXM from May to July which explains the ">0" part. In August they will operate the flight 3 times (0.1 multiplied by the 31 days in August).

NYCVIE
 
jmscsc
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:32 pm

I wonder if/when DL will add SEA - BDL, or if AS ends up adding it first.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:24 am

airtechy wrote:
*DL SEA-IAD JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0

If you need a non-stop and can't fly SEA-DCA, this would seem to be your next best bet. Seems corporate driven.


AS flies to all three Washington DC area airports. In addition, NK flies BWI-SEA nonstop. DL is another airline available for service from IAD to SEA...along with UA and AS.
 
DDR
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:29 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
DDR wrote:
"Agree with all of that. I think AA has no business in BOS-PIT (literally)."

AA has a very strong frequent flyer base in PIT that it acquired from US Airways. AA also has a pretty good ff base in BOS. As long as fares stay at a profitable level, I think AA will be fine.


AA FF base in PIT? From the US cuts that started fifteen years ago and had reduced the hub to 68 flights by 2010? I'm not sure the memories are happy ones.


There are still tons of people who refused to give up status. Believe me or not, but I see it on the flights I worked when I flew domestic.
 
grbauc
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:37 am

flyPIT wrote:
enilria wrote:
I think AA has no business in BOS-PIT (literally).

Which explains why they upgauged a flight to an E175 and will be flying 3x daily in summer.



Not sure what the poster meant but I will take a stab at it. Maybe its that DP and the New AA does not do PtP flights. I wish the opposite but AA seems to not care for them.
 
ctrabs0114
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:44 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
DDR wrote:
"Agree with all of that. I think AA has no business in BOS-PIT (literally)."

AA has a very strong frequent flyer base in PIT that it acquired from US Airways. AA also has a pretty good ff base in BOS. As long as fares stay at a profitable level, I think AA will be fine.


AA FF base in PIT? From the US cuts that started fifteen years ago and had reduced the hub to 68 flights by 2010? I'm not sure the memories are happy ones.


Especially when WN overtook AA in market share at KPIT two years ago (WN share at KPIT is 28.67 percent in October 2017; AA is second at 15.01 percent, though that doesn't appear to factor in AA regionals). AA's base doesn't appear as strong as it used to be pre-WN, and probably less so when they dumped the Steelers charter contract entering this past season (they don't even advertise at Heinz Field anymore, FWIW). Maybe there's a AA strong base for certain markets (KPIT to KPHL/KCLT), but not so much others (especially the KPIT to KORD/KMDW market).

Long story short, AA may have a base, but they haven't exactly been overly friendly towards KPIT, in my opinion.
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A388
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:17 pm

NYCVIE wrote:
A388 wrote:
Can someone explain to me how to read these schedule changes? How should I read this:


AA PHL-SXM MAY 0.5>0 JUN 0.8>0 JUL 0.9>0 AUG 0.6>0.1


A388


AA won't be operating PHL-SXM from May to July which explains the ">0" part. In August they will operate the flight 3 times (0.1 multiplied by the 31 days in August).

NYCVIE


Thanks for the explanation NYCVIE. What do the numbers mean after the month? May 0.5 and JUL 0.9 etc...?


A388
 
eaa3
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:35 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
stlgph wrote:
RE: 4 BOS-KEF on Icelandair

I haven't looked or bothered to try to find, but what is the breakdown of the departures here, and are they on the Max or all 757?

In attending Icelandair Waves in 2016 I know in talking with some of the folks from IceAir that BOS was still their top market out of the U.S., and once the 737 came on, four a day on the route didn't seem as a "far off" idea, with a potential morning departures out of BOS in the mix.


Pulling up a couple of random dates in the summer equipment shows 3x 752, 1x 76W.


Look again. The morning flight isn’t there anymore. It’s 3x daily.
 
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hvusslax
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:04 pm

eaa3 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
stlgph wrote:
RE: 4 BOS-KEF on Icelandair

I haven't looked or bothered to try to find, but what is the breakdown of the departures here, and are they on the Max or all 757?

In attending Icelandair Waves in 2016 I know in talking with some of the folks from IceAir that BOS was still their top market out of the U.S., and once the 737 came on, four a day on the route didn't seem as a "far off" idea, with a potential morning departures out of BOS in the mix.


Pulling up a couple of random dates in the summer equipment shows 3x 752, 1x 76W.


Look again. The morning flight isn’t there anymore. It’s 3x daily.


It looks like the whole morning departure bank is gone. When I was looking at this in November they had scheduled daily BOS, JFK and IAD flights and YYZ and SEA 3x weekly, all departing at 10:30. These flights no longer show up. The corresponding flights on the European side with departures after midnight out of KEF to the Nordic capitals and CDG don't show up either. It looks like FI has abandoned the second bank entirely.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:21 pm

hvusslax wrote:
eaa3 wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:

Pulling up a couple of random dates in the summer equipment shows 3x 752, 1x 76W.


Look again. The morning flight isn’t there anymore. It’s 3x daily.


It looks like the whole morning departure bank is gone. When I was looking at this in November they had scheduled daily BOS, JFK and IAD flights and YYZ and SEA 3x weekly, all departing at 10:30. These flights no longer show up. The corresponding flights on the European side with departures after midnight out of KEF to the Nordic capitals and CDG don't show up either. It looks like FI has abandoned the second bank entirely.


Yep, just tried a dummy booking on their website for 6/11 and days after. The early flight is definitely not for sale for BOS, only the 3 evening flights are bookable, could that change, maybe, but if not it certainly may explain where some of the capacity is coming from from all the other additions they have been planning.
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Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:48 pm

enilria wrote:
AC BOS-YVR JUN 0.3>1.0
AC LGA-YYZ MAY 14>13 JUN 13>12 JUL 13>12 AUG 14>13 SEP 13>12
AC ORD-YVR MAY 2>1.0
AC ORD-YYZ MAY 7>8

AS SEA-YYJ JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4

*DL SEA-IAD JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
*DL SEA-IND JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
DL SEA-LAS JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5
*DL SEA-MCI JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
DL SEA-MCO SEP 1.5>1.0

JJ LAS-GRU JUN 0.1>0.4



For AC's LGA-YYZ that's weird. They moved LGA-YOW over to EWR in order to fund extra frequencies to YYZ and YUL. Looks like AC are starting their seasonal YVR-BOS earlier in June than originally planned.

For AS SEA-YYJ, nice to see a secondary Canadian transborder add again this week.

For DL at SEA, now we know what all the recent cuts are funding.

What is that LAS-GRU route on JJ? Scheduled or charters?
 
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:53 pm

capejet wrote:
I think AA will keep BOS-PIT if the aircraft are involved in the rotation of other RJ routes AA flies out of BOS, especially BOS-ROC which I have been told (by a reliable source) is a very profitable route.


I have flown the BOS-ROC route 3 times, and it has always been full which is good, however I would rather see B6 on this route. I don't think this is likely though since B6 already flies BOS-BUF, and just started BOS-SYR.
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:03 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
DDR wrote:
"Agree with all of that. I think AA has no business in BOS-PIT (literally)."

AA has a very strong frequent flyer base in PIT that it acquired from US Airways. AA also has a pretty good ff base in BOS. As long as fares stay at a profitable level, I think AA will be fine.


AA FF base in PIT? From the US cuts that started fifteen years ago and had reduced the hub to 68 flights by 2010? I'm not sure the memories are happy ones.


There are still a lot of people in the DFW Metroplex who are loyal to DL, even though DL closed the DFW years ago. It also depends on corporate contracts. My wife used to work for a company that had a lage presence in the Pittsburgh area. Pittsburgh employees had to fly US or UA, since those two codeshared at the time. Presumably, PIT employees now have to fly AA.
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:26 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
What is that LAS-GRU route on JJ? Scheduled or charters?


It's scheduled. JJ is starting both GRU-LAS and GRU-BOS this summer, both on the 763.
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iyerhari
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:54 pm

tphuang wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
Quite impressive, but not surprising given DL's stated goal to get to 150 flights @ BOS. I think the constant DL build-up is the "never-ending" response to B6's entrance to ATL and (BOS-)LGA, and MSP in May.

BOS-BNA is becoming something of blood bath. DL and WN at 3x, and B6 at 2x, in a market that didn't have non-stop service less than a decade ago.

BOS-CHS is an extremely profitable monopoly market for B6. It was only a matter of time before DL entered. I think there's enough room for both carriers in this market.

BOS-JAX is similar to BOS-CHS, in that it is also a B6 monopoly that DL is taking aim at. There are very few of those left.

Interesting that BOS-PIT is going up to 3x. Will this be the straw that causes AA to finally call it quits? (B6 also flies this 6x and commands very high average fares.)


B6 entrance into BOS-ATL/LGA is costing DL about $60 million a year. (BOS-ATL saw $70 drop on average fares for 500k annual passengers, BOS-LGA saw $80 to $90 drop on average fares for 300k passengers)

And that doesn't even include their entrance into JFK/FLL/MCO-ATL and BOS-MSP, which will probably be less costly, but will increase the total. Looking at all the ATL-Carribean sales B6 is running these days, DL is going to see depressed yield there too. No wonder DL is pissed at B6.

I don't see why AA needs to quit on BOS-PIT. It's larger than DL on both end of that route. I'd be surprised if DL is doing well financially on this route. OTOH, this will probably no longer be that profitable for B6.

As for BOS-JAX/CHS, they are certainly profitable routes, but B6 doesn't make as much of a killing on monopolies as DL does on its monopolies. The fare levels are about the same as BOS-RSW and about 10% higher than BOS-MCO.

I'm still really curious on where DL wants to add after this to get to 150? There is only so many more they can add to leisure locations. After that, they'd have to get on one of those routes to AA/UA/WN hubs. I just don't see how DL can possibly do well on those. BOS-SFO has been hugely bloody for everyone and doesn't appear to get any better soon.

My guess B6 at some point this year will add BOS-CVG, BOS/FLL-IND and JFK/FLL-MSP.



I believe DL has a tricky situation at hand compared to UA and AA. If you take pax numbers for 2017, ATL is at 95,853,002. The next largest DL fortress hub is MSP at number 17 with 35,106,105 pax followed by DTW 32,001,529 at number 18. That's a huge difference which is not the same situation with AA and UA. AA and UA have hubs which have a more balanced pax distribution as compared to DL. The other DL large hubs such as LAX, JFK and SEA although not single monopoly hubs have tremendous competition from incumbents (AS in SEA) and LAX (AA and also UA). DL maybe thinking BOS has a good opportunity even though I should add BOS is higher than DTW and MSP in terms of passengers though not contributed primarily by DL. The interesting thing is B6 is a formidable in BOS but the big challenge for B6 will be they do not have the luxury to add routes and have ways to go to TATL destinations. It is certainly going to get interesting in BOS.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:00 pm

jworks158 wrote:
capejet wrote:
I think AA will keep BOS-PIT if the aircraft are involved in the rotation of other RJ routes AA flies out of BOS, especially BOS-ROC which I have been told (by a reliable source) is a very profitable route.


I have flown the BOS-ROC route 3 times, and it has always been full which is good, however I would rather see B6 on this route. I don't think this is likely though since B6 already flies BOS-BUF, and just started BOS-SYR.


ROC Airport Management wants B6 on the route though and eventually Chuck Schumer will pressure them into adding it.
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:23 pm

iyerhari wrote:
I believe DL has a tricky situation at hand compared to UA and AA. If you take pax numbers for 2017, ATL is at 95,853,002. The next largest DL fortress hub is MSP at number 17 with 35,106,105 pax followed by DTW 32,001,529 at number 18. That's a huge difference which is not the same situation with AA and UA. AA and UA have hubs which have a more balanced pax distribution as compared to DL. The other DL large hubs such as LAX, JFK and SEA although not single monopoly hubs have tremendous competition from incumbents (AS in SEA) and LAX (AA and also UA). DL maybe thinking BOS has a good opportunity even though I should add BOS is higher than DTW and MSP in terms of passengers though not contributed primarily by DL. The interesting thing is B6 is a formidable in BOS but the big challenge for B6 will be they do not have the luxury to add routes and have ways to go to TATL destinations. It is certainly going to get interesting in BOS.

That's why so many international airlines have been taking advantage and adding flights to Boston because there it isn't such a dominant airline.
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Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:56 pm

iyerhari wrote:
tphuang wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
Quite impressive, but not surprising given DL's stated goal to get to 150 flights @ BOS. I think the constant DL build-up is the "never-ending" response to B6's entrance to ATL and (BOS-)LGA, and MSP in May.

BOS-BNA is becoming something of blood bath. DL and WN at 3x, and B6 at 2x, in a market that didn't have non-stop service less than a decade ago.

BOS-CHS is an extremely profitable monopoly market for B6. It was only a matter of time before DL entered. I think there's enough room for both carriers in this market.

BOS-JAX is similar to BOS-CHS, in that it is also a B6 monopoly that DL is taking aim at. There are very few of those left.

Interesting that BOS-PIT is going up to 3x. Will this be the straw that causes AA to finally call it quits? (B6 also flies this 6x and commands very high average fares.)


B6 entrance into BOS-ATL/LGA is costing DL about $60 million a year. (BOS-ATL saw $70 drop on average fares for 500k annual passengers, BOS-LGA saw $80 to $90 drop on average fares for 300k passengers)

And that doesn't even include their entrance into JFK/FLL/MCO-ATL and BOS-MSP, which will probably be less costly, but will increase the total. Looking at all the ATL-Carribean sales B6 is running these days, DL is going to see depressed yield there too. No wonder DL is pissed at B6.

I don't see why AA needs to quit on BOS-PIT. It's larger than DL on both end of that route. I'd be surprised if DL is doing well financially on this route. OTOH, this will probably no longer be that profitable for B6.

As for BOS-JAX/CHS, they are certainly profitable routes, but B6 doesn't make as much of a killing on monopolies as DL does on its monopolies. The fare levels are about the same as BOS-RSW and about 10% higher than BOS-MCO.

I'm still really curious on where DL wants to add after this to get to 150? There is only so many more they can add to leisure locations. After that, they'd have to get on one of those routes to AA/UA/WN hubs. I just don't see how DL can possibly do well on those. BOS-SFO has been hugely bloody for everyone and doesn't appear to get any better soon.

My guess B6 at some point this year will add BOS-CVG, BOS/FLL-IND and JFK/FLL-MSP.



I believe DL has a tricky situation at hand compared to UA and AA. If you take pax numbers for 2017, ATL is at 95,853,002. The next largest DL fortress hub is MSP at number 17 with 35,106,105 pax followed by DTW 32,001,529 at number 18. That's a huge difference which is not the same situation with AA and UA. AA and UA have hubs which have a more balanced pax distribution as compared to DL. The other DL large hubs such as LAX, JFK and SEA although not single monopoly hubs have tremendous competition from incumbents (AS in SEA) and LAX (AA and also UA). DL maybe thinking BOS has a good opportunity even though I should add BOS is higher than DTW and MSP in terms of passengers though not contributed primarily by DL. The interesting thing is B6 is a formidable in BOS but the big challenge for B6 will be they do not have the luxury to add routes and have ways to go to TATL destinations. It is certainly going to get interesting in BOS.


I don’t know if I’d necessarily agree. Yes, DL’s fortress hubs tend to be in smaller markets, but it has more of them compared to AA and UA. To put it another way, is it better to be the biggest fish in a small pond or one of many in a large pond? If DL can fight out all these share battles in SEA/BOS/NYC/LAX while still outperforming the rest of the US3 financially, then it would seem the former option at least has something going for it.
 
iyerhari
Posts: 1092
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2013 4:25 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:53 pm

I believe, the number of fortress hubs are almost the same except when one goes into the details with the exception that DL is aggressively going into new markets - BOS, SEA and RDU which I believe AA and UA are not keen - at-least at this time. This is what I could gather based on the raw pax numbers.

AA fortress hubs: DFW, CLT, MIA, PHL, DCA
Hubs where AA is leading but not a single monopoly – PHX
DL fortress hubs: ATL, MSP, DTW, SLC, CVG
Hubs where DL is leading but not a single monopoly – LGA, JFK
Hubs where AA and DL are almost the same size – LAX although AA is slightly higher
UA fortress hubs: EWR, IAH, SFO, IAD
Hubs where UA is higher than AA – ORD
Let me know if I missed out something glaring.
 
NYCVIE
Posts: 296
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 11:01 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:05 pm

iyerhari wrote:
I believe, the number of fortress hubs are almost the same except when one goes into the details with the exception that DL is aggressively going into new markets - BOS, SEA and RDU which I believe AA and UA are not keen - at-least at this time. This is what I could gather based on the raw pax numbers.

AA fortress hubs: DFW, CLT, MIA, PHL, DCA
Hubs where AA is leading but not a single monopoly – PHX
DL fortress hubs: ATL, MSP, DTW, SLC, CVG
Hubs where DL is leading but not a single monopoly – LGA, JFK
Hubs where AA and DL are almost the same size – LAX although AA is slightly higher
UA fortress hubs: EWR, IAH, SFO, IAD
Hubs where UA is higher than AA – ORD
Let me know if I missed out something glaring.


I don't think MIA, DCA, IAD, EWR, or DFW can be considered fortress hubs because if you look at market as a whole there are other significant carriers. In MIA's case there is FLL right up the road, DCA and IAD are in the same market (with BWI close by), EWR is a part of the larger NYC market, and DFW, while a huge hub in its own right has DAL right down the road. Outside of NYC, LAX, and SEA, DL is by far the dominant player in its hub markets (most of which consist of just one major airport).

EDIT- I forgot that IAH has HOU as competition and SFO has both AS and WN at SFO itself as well as at OAK and SJC.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5353
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:07 pm

DL dominate its fortress hub ATL/MSP/DTW at a level different than any AA/UA hub outside of CLT. Basing this on how many flights between 2 hub cities.

They seem to be more profitable hubs than AA at MIA/DFW/DCA, which face competition at DAL/FLL/IAD or UA at EWR/IAD/SFO/IAH, which face competition from JFK/DCA/OAK/HOU. DL's 4 primary hubs really face no competition of any sorts. Which kind of allows it to go into other markets.

It's pretty clear at JFK at least, DL have a lot higher tolerance for money loosing routes than AA. And they are the lowest yielding carrier even after 10 years of building up their NYC operation. It would not be able to do that without money rolling in from its fortress hubs.
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:23 pm

iyerhari wrote:
I believe, the number of fortress hubs are almost the same except when one goes into the details with the exception that DL is aggressively going into new markets - BOS, SEA and RDU which I believe AA and UA are not keen - at-least at this time. This is what I could gather based on the raw pax numbers.

AA fortress hubs: DFW, CLT, MIA, PHL, DCA
Hubs where AA is leading but not a single monopoly – PHX
DL fortress hubs: ATL, MSP, DTW, SLC, CVG
Hubs where DL is leading but not a single monopoly – LGA, JFK
Hubs where AA and DL are almost the same size – LAX although AA is slightly higher
UA fortress hubs: EWR, IAH, SFO, IAD
Hubs where UA is higher than AA – ORD
Let me know if I missed out something glaring.


I think we may be have two different ideas on what constitutes a fortress hub. That’s fair enough since all of these definitions are arbitrary to begin with. But consider that out of DL’s “fortress” hubs in ATL/MSP/DTW/etc. DL dominates both domestic and international travel not just in that particular airport but across the airport’s entire metropolitan area.

Using your examples, AA faces a great deal of competition in DFW from WN in DAL, direct overlap in a lot of PHX routes with WN, UA/WN in the Washington DC metro, and WN/B6/NK in South Florida/MIA. Even in the case of PHL, you could make the argument that the easternmost part of the PHL catchment overlaps with the westernmost part of the EWR catchment. The only airport where they can face similar competitive conditions to DL in their home hubs is CLT, which is not coincidentally their most profitable per their earnings calls.

With respect to UA, their situation is even more extreme. Even when they dominate the specific airport, like in EWR, IAD, IAH, or SFO, they still face a lot of nonstop competition in other airports within the same catchment. Yes, they might have an advantage in terms of international traffic or corporate contracts, but clearly it isn’t enough to close the revenue gap with AA and DL.
 
iyerhari
Posts: 1092
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2013 4:25 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:31 pm

Excellent points and insights - I completely missed the aspect of a competing airport which is located quite close by and was looking solely from the angle of a single airport. I agree with the analysis that DL completely dominates the airport's complete MSA which is not the case with AA and UA with the exception of CLT. Thank you for the points.
 
jworks158
Posts: 396
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:02 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:21 am

adamh8297 wrote:
jworks158 wrote:
capejet wrote:
I think AA will keep BOS-PIT if the aircraft are involved in the rotation of other RJ routes AA flies out of BOS, especially BOS-ROC which I have been told (by a reliable source) is a very profitable route.


I have flown the BOS-ROC route 3 times, and it has always been full which is good, however I would rather see B6 on this route. I don't think this is likely though since B6 already flies BOS-BUF, and just started BOS-SYR.


ROC Airport Management wants B6 on the route though and eventually Chuck Schumer will pressure them into adding it.


Sweet! I didn't know that. As it is B6's presence at ROC is quite small with 4 departures to JFK, compared to BUF at 12, and SYR at 6.
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ctrabs0114
Posts: 1089
Joined: Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:09 am

Re: OAG Changes 1/14/2018: DL Adds SEA-IAD/IND/MCI, Expands in BOS; AA Reduces STT/SXM

Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:44 am

iyerhari wrote:
I believe, the number of fortress hubs are almost the same except when one goes into the details with the exception that DL is aggressively going into new markets - BOS, SEA and RDU which I believe AA and UA are not keen - at-least at this time. This is what I could gather based on the raw pax numbers.

AA fortress hubs: DFW, CLT, MIA, PHL, DCA
Hubs where AA is leading but not a single monopoly – PHX
DL fortress hubs: ATL, MSP, DTW, SLC, CVG
Hubs where DL is leading but not a single monopoly – LGA, JFK
Hubs where AA and DL are almost the same size – LAX although AA is slightly higher
UA fortress hubs: EWR, IAH, SFO, IAD
Hubs where UA is higher than AA – ORD
Let me know if I missed out something glaring.


Since KDEN is considered a UA hub, I'll add that UA is leading at KDEN, but doesn't have a single monopoly (Nov. 2017 market share: UA leads at 42.19 percent, followed by WN with 29.62 percent market share).

As for KLAX, UA is a relatively close third (14.66 total ops percent market share YTD Jan.-Nov. 2017) behind AA (21.03 percent) and DL (17.11 percent), with WN fourth (13.16 percent). So, you could make the argument that AA, DL, UA and WN could all be within that category by a few percentage points.
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