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YYZflyboy
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When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Sun Jan 14, 2018 7:44 pm

Considering that Air Canada only has one E190 on the route, and there are so many high-tech companies in both cities (Toronto is called Silicon Valley North, especially North and West of the city, like Markham and Waterloo), one would think this is a slam-dunk route for Delta for the front of the plane. They have the right aircraft (737/A320/757) for it too! On top of that, they can fill their Asia-Pacific/Hawaii/Western US flights using connections from YYZ. So why no daily flight to SEA? They could steal away some passengers from AC while they're at it!

If not on DL's own metal, perhaps they can work with WestJet to start this flight!
 
FSDan
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Sun Jan 14, 2018 7:58 pm

If DL were to start this route in the future, I think the CSeries would probably be the right aircraft. The fact that AC only runs E190s on YYZ-SEA while they run 320s, 321s, and even 789s to the other major cities on the West Cost (with higher frequency, no less) speaks to the difference in demand, I think. I would also say DL has bigger fish to fry domestically (SEA-DFW being the top one now that SEA-IAD is coming online) before they would start SEA-YYZ.
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deltal1011man
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:04 pm

FSDan wrote:
If DL were to start this route in the future, I think the CSeries would probably be the right aircraft. The fact that AC only runs E190s on YYZ-SEA while they run 320s, 321s, and even 789s to the other major cities on the West Cost (with higher frequency, no less) speaks to the difference in demand, I think. I would also say DL has bigger fish to fry domestically (SEA-DFW being the top one now that SEA-IAD is coming online) before they would start SEA-YYZ.


agreed. Delta has limited space at SEA and I just can't see YYZ being a big need for them. SEA-YYZ has to fly almost right over MSP and DTW is only slightly out o the way.

Definitely think places like DFW, IAH, more western cities(i.e. ABQ, OAK, BUR etc) and maybe even places like PHL/TPA would be more important than YYZ. Maybe Westjet makes it worth while but I personally don't see it.
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:10 pm

I kind of doubt DL will fly it soon. YYZ-SEA would overfly MSP, DTW, SLC, and (NYC sort of), not to mention the hubs of other carriers, O&D demand is around 133.2 PDEW and as DL has struggled with SLC-YYZ and has YYZ-MSP and YYZ-DTW to handle Asia and U.S. West Coast demand, SEA-YYZ is probably not that high of a priority. YYZ-Hawaii is 181 PDEW, but much of this demand is probably handled by Canadian carriers, and there are abundant connection options to other west-coast destinations.

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&retrLang=eng&id=4010059&tabMode=dataTable&p1=-1&p2=-1&srchLan=-1&pattern=401-0039%2C401-0056%2C401-0057%2C401-0058%2C401-0059%2C401-0040

I see daily Vancouver-Atlanta and Calgary-Atlanta as much more likely USA/Canada routes from the West Jet/Delta joint-venture given the greater size and connectivity of Atlanta and Delta's 'love for its hub there.

DL or WS YYZ-SEA could eventually happen, though, I think DL would be at around 240 daily flights out of SEA first, demand would have to increase to around 160 PDEW and service would have to be summer-seasonal. It's probably doable by around 2020, but DL seems to focus mainly on shorter transborder routes, and has cut a few in recent years. The WestJet joint-venture could lead to growth in which case YYZ-SEA will probably happen, or it could be a capacity constraining measure, in which case they wouldn't move to open new longer-haul transborder routes.

We'll just to have wait and see.

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tphuang
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:42 pm

seems like WS flying this route will make a lot of sense and would not use DL gate space at SEA?

I agree that this looks to be a route DL should enter.
 
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longhauler
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:55 pm

In winter/low season, it is normally an A320 at AC on YYZ-SEA, sometimes an A319.
Starting in May/June it goes to two daily A320s, with a third E190/A319 some days of the week.
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Overthecascades
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Sun Jan 14, 2018 9:46 pm

longhauler wrote:
In winter/low season, it is normally an A320 at AC on YYZ-SEA, sometimes an A319.
Starting in May/June it goes to two daily A320s, with a third E190/A319 some days of the week.


That’s evidence of good demand. AC captures Canada point of sale and DL or AS should capture the SEA one.
 
notconcerned
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:00 pm

Overthecascades wrote:
longhauler wrote:
In winter/low season, it is normally an A320 at AC on YYZ-SEA, sometimes an A319.
Starting in May/June it goes to two daily A320s, with a third E190/A319 some days of the week.


That’s evidence of good demand. AC captures Canada point of sale and DL or AS should capture the SEA one.


I think that's evidence that there's good onward connection demand, and summer travel ex-SEA to Europe that YYZ can funnel.

As others noted, the O&D demand is not that high, and any ex-YYZ to Asia/West Coast can easily be covered by DTW and MSP. Which makes it less likely for DL to add SEA-YYZ.
 
deltal1011man
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:01 pm

tphuang wrote:
seems like WS flying this route will make a lot of sense and would not use DL gate space at SEA?

I agree that this looks to be a route DL should enter.

unless they get space from AS or WN they are going to be using either Delta space or space Delta wants.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:12 pm

YYZ-SEA recently went A320 on AC, but it still really doesn't seem like a huge route. If Toronto gets the Amazon HQ2, that changes things, but as it stands, that's a long flight that would rely on almost all O/D.

DL from LAX would probably make a lot more sense, that is an absolutely massive route that is dominated by the Canadian carriers, with the WS JV, it could be a great way for them to break in.
 
airportlover
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:50 pm

deltal1011man wrote:
FSDan wrote:
If DL were to start this route in the future, I think the CSeries would probably be the right aircraft. The fact that AC only runs E190s on YYZ-SEA while they run 320s, 321s, and even 789s to the other major cities on the West Cost (with higher frequency, no less) speaks to the difference in demand, I think. I would also say DL has bigger fish to fry domestically (SEA-DFW being the top one now that SEA-IAD is coming online) before they would start SEA-YYZ.


agreed. Delta has limited space at SEA and I just can't see YYZ being a big need for them. SEA-YYZ has to fly almost right over MSP and DTW is only slightly out o the way.

Definitely think places like DFW, IAH, more western cities(i.e. ABQ, OAK, BUR etc) and maybe even places like PHL/TPA would be more important than YYZ. Maybe Westjet makes it worth while but I personally don't see it.


I disagree. YYZ, for O&D purposes, is more important (or just as important) as Dallas, PHL, IAH. YYZ is a huge, high-yielding market that they could actually make good money on. YYZ is probably the third most important North American city, maybe the fourth. Depends on your perspective. YYZ is essential in building up SEA, more than DFW/IAH (I would say they need to serve both, but one could do) or PHL (just not as big of a market as DFW/IAH). Also, DL has to serve a major Canadian city from SEA, and that is probably more of a priority than the two Texas cities or another East Coast market. You are kidding that TPA is more important than YYZ, not to mention ABQ, OAK, BUR, right???
 
airportlover
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:52 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
YYZ-SEA recently went A320 on AC, but it still really doesn't seem like a huge route. If Toronto gets the Amazon HQ2, that changes things, but as it stands, that's a long flight that would rely on almost all O/D.

DL from LAX would probably make a lot more sense, that is an absolutely massive route that is dominated by the Canadian carriers, with the WS JV, it could be a great way for them to break in.


Yes, DL is fairly weak in Canada, unlike UA/AC, and I think that will haunt them in the future. Canada is a huge business and leisure market from the US, and many people have family on both sides of the border. Also, Canada, especially Toronto, continues to grow, and Toronto is emerging as a premier world city, in the leagues of NY, London, Paris, LA, SF, Tokyo, Hong Kong, etc.
 
SESGDL
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:59 pm

airportlover wrote:
deltal1011man wrote:
FSDan wrote:
If DL were to start this route in the future, I think the CSeries would probably be the right aircraft. The fact that AC only runs E190s on YYZ-SEA while they run 320s, 321s, and even 789s to the other major cities on the West Cost (with higher frequency, no less) speaks to the difference in demand, I think. I would also say DL has bigger fish to fry domestically (SEA-DFW being the top one now that SEA-IAD is coming online) before they would start SEA-YYZ.


agreed. Delta has limited space at SEA and I just can't see YYZ being a big need for them. SEA-YYZ has to fly almost right over MSP and DTW is only slightly out o the way.

Definitely think places like DFW, IAH, more western cities(i.e. ABQ, OAK, BUR etc) and maybe even places like PHL/TPA would be more important than YYZ. Maybe Westjet makes it worth while but I personally don't see it.


I disagree. YYZ, for O&D purposes, is more important (or just as important) as Dallas, PHL, IAH. YYZ is a huge, high-yielding market that they could actually make good money on. YYZ is probably the third most important North American city, maybe the fourth. Depends on your perspective. YYZ is essential in building up SEA, more than DFW/IAH (I would say they need to serve both, but one could do) or PHL (just not as big of a market as DFW/IAH). Also, DL has to serve a major Canadian city from SEA, and that is probably more of a priority than the two Texas cities or another East Coast market. You are kidding that TPA is more important than YYZ, not to mention ABQ, OAK, BUR, right???


If it were that important a market then there would be more than one daily flight on just one carrier. The O&D is not even 150 PDEW, sorry, that does not equal a super important market. SEA-DFW is a far more important market for DL, hence the reason they don’t serve it yet, as it will require a serious commitment and significant frequency (at least 3-4 daily flights) to be competitive.

Jeremy
 
airzona11
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:00 pm

SEA is too close to YVR I think.

There is tech around YYZ, I am not sure where it ties to Seattle. Seattle has tech but still is not the Bay Area.
 
airportlover
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:07 pm

SESGDL wrote:
airportlover wrote:
deltal1011man wrote:

agreed. Delta has limited space at SEA and I just can't see YYZ being a big need for them. SEA-YYZ has to fly almost right over MSP and DTW is only slightly out o the way.

Definitely think places like DFW, IAH, more western cities(i.e. ABQ, OAK, BUR etc) and maybe even places like PHL/TPA would be more important than YYZ. Maybe Westjet makes it worth while but I personally don't see it.


I disagree. YYZ, for O&D purposes, is more important (or just as important) as Dallas, PHL, IAH. YYZ is a huge, high-yielding market that they could actually make good money on. YYZ is probably the third most important North American city, maybe the fourth. Depends on your perspective. YYZ is essential in building up SEA, more than DFW/IAH (I would say they need to serve both, but one could do) or PHL (just not as big of a market as DFW/IAH). Also, DL has to serve a major Canadian city from SEA, and that is probably more of a priority than the two Texas cities or another East Coast market. You are kidding that TPA is more important than YYZ, not to mention ABQ, OAK, BUR, right???


If it were that important a market then there would be more than one daily flight on just one carrier. The O&D is not even 150 PDEW, sorry, that does not equal a super important market. SEA-DFW is a far more important market for DL, hence the reason they don’t serve it yet, as it will require a serious commitment and significant frequency (at least 3-4 daily flights) to be competitive.

Jeremy


Ok, sorry, I didn't have the numbers. I just assumed that YYZ is a larger market than DFW because it definitely seems to be from the New York area. I mean, Toronto (YYZ and YYZ) are both incredibly popular for business. As is DFW, but Toronto is more popular. However, in terms of leisure, Toronto blows DFW out of the water. Dallas is just not a big tourist destination, but Toronto definitely is. I also do know that it is a large city, with a lot of business travel.
 
flight152
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:16 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
YYZ-SEA recently went A320 on AC, but it still really doesn't seem like a huge route. If Toronto gets the Amazon HQ2, that changes things, but as it stands, that's a long flight that would rely on almost all O/D.

DL from LAX would probably make a lot more sense, that is an absolutely massive route that is dominated by the Canadian carriers, with the WS JV, it could be a great way for them to break in.

There are many cities up for Amazon hq2, and due to a few factors I highly doubt Toronto will be it.
 
1900Driver
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:23 am

SESGDL wrote:
airportlover wrote:
deltal1011man wrote:

agreed. Delta has limited space at SEA and I just can't see YYZ being a big need for them. SEA-YYZ has to fly almost right over MSP and DTW is only slightly out o the way.

Definitely think places like DFW, IAH, more western cities(i.e. ABQ, OAK, BUR etc) and maybe even places like PHL/TPA would be more important than YYZ. Maybe Westjet makes it worth while but I personally don't see it.


I disagree. YYZ, for O&D purposes, is more important (or just as important) as Dallas, PHL, IAH. YYZ is a huge, high-yielding market that they could actually make good money on. YYZ is probably the third most important North American city, maybe the fourth. Depends on your perspective. YYZ is essential in building up SEA, more than DFW/IAH (I would say they need to serve both, but one could do) or PHL (just not as big of a market as DFW/IAH). Also, DL has to serve a major Canadian city from SEA, and that is probably more of a priority than the two Texas cities or another East Coast market. You are kidding that TPA is more important than YYZ, not to mention ABQ, OAK, BUR, right???


If it were that important a market then there would be more than one daily flight on just one carrier. The O&D is not even 150 PDEW, sorry, that does not equal a super important market. SEA-DFW is a far more important market for DL, hence the reason they don’t serve it yet, as it will require a serious commitment and significant frequency (at least 3-4 daily flights) to be competitive.

Jeremy



AC goes 2X daily with 320s in the summer. YYZ-SEA traffic is growing steadily. Though not as important as DFW for sure.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:26 am

The new Amazon hq2 is gonna be over hyped like HND slots to the us lol. The winner will most likely be some medium sized city that pays way too many incentives. I doubt it will be a Boston or Toronto more likely a medium sized city that makes a huge commitment. Amazon is smart they are gonna be all about $$$ on this decision some places are offering way too much, they are going to get a sick deal that's what it's about more then anything making the share holders happy with a huge savings for years.
 
NYCVIE
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:57 am

airportlover wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
airportlover wrote:

I disagree. YYZ, for O&D purposes, is more important (or just as important) as Dallas, PHL, IAH. YYZ is a huge, high-yielding market that they could actually make good money on. YYZ is probably the third most important North American city, maybe the fourth. Depends on your perspective. YYZ is essential in building up SEA, more than DFW/IAH (I would say they need to serve both, but one could do) or PHL (just not as big of a market as DFW/IAH). Also, DL has to serve a major Canadian city from SEA, and that is probably more of a priority than the two Texas cities or another East Coast market. You are kidding that TPA is more important than YYZ, not to mention ABQ, OAK, BUR, right???


If it were that important a market then there would be more than one daily flight on just one carrier. The O&D is not even 150 PDEW, sorry, that does not equal a super important market. SEA-DFW is a far more important market for DL, hence the reason they don’t serve it yet, as it will require a serious commitment and significant frequency (at least 3-4 daily flights) to be competitive.

Jeremy


Ok, sorry, I didn't have the numbers. I just assumed that YYZ is a larger market than DFW because it definitely seems to be from the New York area. I mean, Toronto (YYZ and YYZ) are both incredibly popular for business. As is DFW, but Toronto is more popular. However, in terms of leisure, Toronto blows DFW out of the water. Dallas is just not a big tourist destination, but Toronto definitely is. I also do know that it is a large city, with a lot of business travel.


You can't consider that because YYZ is a larger overall market (I'm not even sure if it is) that its a bigger market from SEA than DFW. For example DL has struggled to maintain its single flight from SEA to HKG even though HKG is a huge world city and is served from LAX 5+ times daily. The fact that AC doesn't have a huge presence in the Toronto-SEA market while there are almost a dozen flights by multiple carriers between Dallas and SEA should say something. I'd also be really surprised if there was a substantial group of people travelling from Seattle to Toronto for tourism.

Also just FYI DFW and DAL handle over 80 million passengers a year while YYZ and YTZ handle a little over 45 million passengers a year.
 
NYCVIE
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:01 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
The new Amazon hq2 is gonna be over hyped like HND slots to the us lol. The winner will most likely be some medium sized city that pays way too many incentives. I doubt it will be a Boston or Toronto more likely a medium sized city that makes a huge commitment. Amazon is smart they are gonna be all about $$$ on this decision some places are offering way too much, they are going to get a sick deal that's what it's about more then anything making the share holders happy with a huge savings for years.


I have a strong feeling it will either be Austin, which is already fast expanding with or without Amazon, Atlanta, which is already a large city in its own right, or Denver, which fits the same description.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:24 am

whywhyzee wrote:
YYZ-SEA recently went A320 on AC, but it still really doesn't seem like a huge route. If Toronto gets the Amazon HQ2, that changes things, but as it stands, that's a long flight that would rely on almost all O/D.

DL from LAX would probably make a lot more sense, that is an absolutely massive route that is dominated by the Canadian carriers, with the WS JV, it could be a great way for them to break in.


I don’t think it is a particularly busy route. Air Canada probably matches capacity and demand pretty well. Seattle has stronger demand to British Colombia and Alberta
 
MIflyer12
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:56 am

airportlover wrote:
deltal1011man wrote:
FSDan wrote:
If DL were to start this route in the future, I think the CSeries would probably be the right aircraft. The fact that AC only runs E190s on YYZ-SEA while they run 320s, 321s, and even 789s to the other major cities on the West Cost (with higher frequency, no less) speaks to the difference in demand, I think. I would also say DL has bigger fish to fry domestically (SEA-DFW being the top one now that SEA-IAD is coming online) before they would start SEA-YYZ.


agreed. Delta has limited space at SEA and I just can't see YYZ being a big need for them. SEA-YYZ has to fly almost right over MSP and DTW is only slightly out o the way.

Definitely think places like DFW, IAH, more western cities(i.e. ABQ, OAK, BUR etc) and maybe even places like PHL/TPA would be more important than YYZ. Maybe Westjet makes it worth while but I personally don't see it.


I disagree. YYZ, for O&D purposes, is more important (or just as important) as Dallas, PHL, IAH.


Is it? Can you cite the PDEWs? Average stage-length-adjusted fares less taxes and fees?
 
notconcerned
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:57 am

airportlover wrote:
Ok, sorry, I didn't have the numbers. I just assumed that YYZ is a larger market than DFW because it definitely seems to be from the New York area. I mean, Toronto (YYZ and YYZ) are both incredibly popular for business. As is DFW, but Toronto is more popular. However, in terms of leisure, Toronto blows DFW out of the water. Dallas is just not a big tourist destination, but Toronto definitely is. I also do know that it is a large city, with a lot of business travel.


Dallas-Fort Worth GDP is approximately $500bil USD vs. Greater Toronto GDP at $300bil USD. While Toronto is probably better known internationally and more significant to Canada (as compared to DFW in the US), it doesn't necessarily mean there's higher traffic. The reason why DL would prioritize DFW/IAH/PHX etc. is because these are cities west of DTW/ATL and DL is competing with AA/UA for connecting passengers to feed its SEA TPAC gateway.

As mentioned, YYZ O&D is largely covered by AC, and any TPAC/West Coast connections are covered by DTW and MSP.
 
ddp
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:30 am

FSDan wrote:
If DL were to start this route in the future, I think the CSeries would probably be the right aircraft. The fact that AC only runs E190s on YYZ-SEA while they run 320s, 321s, and even 789s to the other major cities on the West Cost (with higher frequency, no less) speaks to the difference in demand, I think. I would also say DL has bigger fish to fry domestically (SEA-DFW being the top one now that SEA-IAD is coming online) before they would start SEA-YYZ.


I think it is because Air Canada just wants to send you via there Vancouver hub, as it probably makes more sense financially for them as opposed to sending an aircraft multiple times a day, when they can just send those to cities which are not next to an AC hub.

I used to do the YYZ-SEA flight, and out of Toronto connecting in Vancouver would cut the ticket in half in a lot of instances.
 
airportlover
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:35 am

notconcerned wrote:
airportlover wrote:
Ok, sorry, I didn't have the numbers. I just assumed that YYZ is a larger market than DFW because it definitely seems to be from the New York area. I mean, Toronto (YYZ and YYZ) are both incredibly popular for business. As is DFW, but Toronto is more popular. However, in terms of leisure, Toronto blows DFW out of the water. Dallas is just not a big tourist destination, but Toronto definitely is. I also do know that it is a large city, with a lot of business travel.


Dallas-Fort Worth GDP is approximately $500bil USD vs. Greater Toronto GDP at $300bil USD. While Toronto is probably better known internationally and more significant to Canada (as compared to DFW in the US), it doesn't necessarily mean there's higher traffic. The reason why DL would prioritize DFW/IAH/PHX etc. is because these are cities west of DTW/ATL and DL is competing with AA/UA for connecting passengers to feed its SEA TPAC gateway.

As mentioned, YYZ O&D is largely covered by AC, and any TPAC/West Coast connections are covered by DTW and MSP.


Really! I'm shocked that Dallas is larger than Toronto. I have always viewed Toronto as far larger than Dallas. I have thought of it to be only slightly smaller than Chicago. Also, it is really interesting that there is so little demand to Toronto from Seattle. From New York Toronto is a huge destination and extremely popular for business and tourism. I mean, everybody goes to Toronto at some point from New York. I also guess that from most of the US Canada is not really that important/often thought of. Here, we can be in Toronto an hour flight and Montreal in a 5:50 drive. People do it all the time for work and leisure. Sorry that I was mistaken about SEA-YYZ.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:41 am

Using the DFW vs YYZ example, YYZ is listed as a global Alpha City, where as Dallas is two levels below as a Beta +. Just one metric, but one particularly relevant to travel, as this ranking deals with integration within the global economy. Numbers don't lie, YYZ has over 3 times the international traffic, and is the second busiest airport by international passengers in the Americas. Not saying this means that Delta should serve it from SEA, but it certainly speaks to Toronto's integration into the global economy and air travel market.

Also, anyone who thinks someone would really connect to get to Toronto from Seattle is misguided. Saying the market is covered by connections via MSP or DTW is pure fallacy, AC having the sole direct flights will handily secure the vast majority of the higher yield traffic, DL does not have anything that can come close to competing. Again, like I said, they still have bigger problems to tackle, UA has the JV with UA, and AA is already the largest of the US3 at YYZ, DL has ground to make up. The WS JV should certainly go a long way to help them fill in the gaps. As it stands, DL has been taking massive strides at YYZ as of late, bringing in much more mainline service on larger aircraft then I have ever seen, and the trend looks positive, but on that, its still a growth process.
 
YYZflyboy
Topic Author
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:00 am

NYCVIE wrote:
airportlover wrote:
SESGDL wrote:

If it were that important a market then there would be more than one daily flight on just one carrier. The O&D is not even 150 PDEW, sorry, that does not equal a super important market. SEA-DFW is a far more important market for DL, hence the reason they don’t serve it yet, as it will require a serious commitment and significant frequency (at least 3-4 daily flights) to be competitive.

Jeremy


Ok, sorry, I didn't have the numbers. I just assumed that YYZ is a larger market than DFW because it definitely seems to be from the New York area. I mean, Toronto (YYZ and YYZ) are both incredibly popular for business. As is DFW, but Toronto is more popular. However, in terms of leisure, Toronto blows DFW out of the water. Dallas is just not a big tourist destination, but Toronto definitely is. I also do know that it is a large city, with a lot of business travel.


You can't consider that because YYZ is a larger overall market (I'm not even sure if it is) that its a bigger market from SEA than DFW. For example DL has struggled to maintain its single flight from SEA to HKG even though HKG is a huge world city and is served from LAX 5+ times daily. The fact that AC doesn't have a huge presence in the Toronto-SEA market while there are almost a dozen flights by multiple carriers between Dallas and SEA should say something. I'd also be really surprised if there was a substantial group of people travelling from Seattle to Toronto for tourism.

Also just FYI DFW and DAL handle over 80 million passengers a year while YYZ and YTZ handle a little over 45 million passengers a year.


Bingo about HKG (and possibly other West-Coast/Asia/Hawaii routes not served from MSP or DTW). AC and Cathay have a duopoly with direct HKG flights, and UA also captures significant amounts of one stop Asia traffic ex-YYZ via ORD, EWR and SFO. There is enough premium traffic to fill a 737/A320 on the front of the plane from corporate contracts from Seattle-based tech companies, while VFR connections can fill the back of the plane. DL can easily fill VFR passengers from major Canadian cities for their SEA-HKG flight. I zero in on this flight because there is no DTW/MSP-HKG flight (there used to be).

I know DL has their code for one-stop YYZ-HKG flights on MU via PVG, but it is prone to delays, not run daily, plus service standards on MU are subpar vs. DL. They MAY have the code on KE's one-stop flights via ICN, but the pricing will not be competitive on that combination. KE does have daily flights, but there is often a 3-4 hours connection time involved.

If you also notice, there are no morning departures to SEA from YYZ. If they could fly that, there's a niche that DL can fill, and kill two birds in one stone by filling various ex-SEA flights. If it is WS operating the route, they should have no problems filling their all-economy 737 with Asia/US West Coast/Hawaii-bound DL flights from SEA.
Last edited by YYZflyboy on Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
YYZflyboy
Topic Author
Posts: 87
Joined: Sun May 27, 2007 9:00 pm

Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:09 am

airzona11 wrote:
SEA is too close to YVR I think.

There is tech around YYZ, I am not sure where it ties to Seattle. Seattle has tech but still is not the Bay Area.


There's Blackberry just west of Toronto (Waterloo region) and various fast-growing startups with ties to startup investors in the Bay Area and Seattle. Microsoft, Samsung, Amazon all have major headquarters in Mississauga (where YYZ is situated). Also, there is also aerospace (with Bombardier, as well as various companies with contracts with Boeing).
 
airzona11
Posts: 1799
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:56 am

YYZflyboy wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
SEA is too close to YVR I think.

There is tech around YYZ, I am not sure where it ties to Seattle. Seattle has tech but still is not the Bay Area.


There's Blackberry just west of Toronto (Waterloo region) and various fast-growing startups with ties to startup investors in the Bay Area and Seattle. Microsoft, Samsung, Amazon all have major headquarters in Mississauga (where YYZ is situated). Also, there is also aerospace (with Bombardier, as well as various companies with contracts with Boeing).


But that only yields ~150 passengers a day. DL would have zero connections, so it would require O/D. DTW/MSP are all on the way for DL to connect traffic.
 
YYZflyboy
Topic Author
Posts: 87
Joined: Sun May 27, 2007 9:00 pm

Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:17 am

airzona11 wrote:
YYZflyboy wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
SEA is too close to YVR I think.

There is tech around YYZ, I am not sure where it ties to Seattle. Seattle has tech but still is not the Bay Area.


There's Blackberry just west of Toronto (Waterloo region) and various fast-growing startups with ties to startup investors in the Bay Area and Seattle. Microsoft, Samsung, Amazon all have major headquarters in Mississauga (where YYZ is situated). Also, there is also aerospace (with Bombardier, as well as various companies with contracts with Boeing).


But that only yields ~150 passengers a day. DL would have zero connections, so it would require O/D. DTW/MSP are all on the way for DL to connect traffic.


But 150 passengers is enough to fill an A319/A320/B737. And they can get some connections via WestJet from the Atlantic provinces (PEI, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland) as well as Quebec. If Delta can get even 30-35 people connecting to SEA-HKG (huge HK diaspora in Toronto) alone, a 757 is not out of the question!
 
NYCVIE
Posts: 343
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:07 am

airportlover wrote:
notconcerned wrote:
airportlover wrote:
Ok, sorry, I didn't have the numbers. I just assumed that YYZ is a larger market than DFW because it definitely seems to be from the New York area. I mean, Toronto (YYZ and YYZ) are both incredibly popular for business. As is DFW, but Toronto is more popular. However, in terms of leisure, Toronto blows DFW out of the water. Dallas is just not a big tourist destination, but Toronto definitely is. I also do know that it is a large city, with a lot of business travel.


Dallas-Fort Worth GDP is approximately $500bil USD vs. Greater Toronto GDP at $300bil USD. While Toronto is probably better known internationally and more significant to Canada (as compared to DFW in the US), it doesn't necessarily mean there's higher traffic. The reason why DL would prioritize DFW/IAH/PHX etc. is because these are cities west of DTW/ATL and DL is competing with AA/UA for connecting passengers to feed its SEA TPAC gateway.

As mentioned, YYZ O&D is largely covered by AC, and any TPAC/West Coast connections are covered by DTW and MSP.


Really! I'm shocked that Dallas is larger than Toronto. I have always viewed Toronto as far larger than Dallas. I have thought of it to be only slightly smaller than Chicago. Also, it is really interesting that there is so little demand to Toronto from Seattle. From New York Toronto is a huge destination and extremely popular for business and tourism. I mean, everybody goes to Toronto at some point from New York. I also guess that from most of the US Canada is not really that important/often thought of. Here, we can be in Toronto an hour flight and Montreal in a 5:50 drive. People do it all the time for work and leisure. Sorry that I was mistaken about SEA-YYZ.


As someone who lives in NYC I get what you're saying, but it would be wrong to compare a smaller city on the other side of the country to NYC. For one, NYC has decent demand to just about anywhere but very few cities also have that quality. Secondly, just as Toronto is a destination for people from New York, Vancouver is one for people from Seattle. Lastly, Toronto is a big deal in the scope of Canada which itself is comparatively much smaller (population and economy wise) to the US.
 
NYCVIE
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:16 am

YYZflyboy wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
YYZflyboy wrote:

There's Blackberry just west of Toronto (Waterloo region) and various fast-growing startups with ties to startup investors in the Bay Area and Seattle. Microsoft, Samsung, Amazon all have major headquarters in Mississauga (where YYZ is situated). Also, there is also aerospace (with Bombardier, as well as various companies with contracts with Boeing).


But that only yields ~150 passengers a day. DL would have zero connections, so it would require O/D. DTW/MSP are all on the way for DL to connect traffic.


But 150 passengers is enough to fill an A319/A320/B737. And they can get some connections via WestJet from the Atlantic provinces (PEI, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland) as well as Quebec. If Delta can get even 30-35 people connecting to SEA-HKG (huge HK diaspora in Toronto) alone, a 757 is not out of the question!



But DL would be fighting for those 150 passengers with AC who is already in the market. Plus I'm sure it wouldn't be particularly difficult for AC to undercut a YYZ-SEA-HKG routing with their own YYZ-HKG nonstop or even YYZ-YVR-HKG. And then consider that connecting in the US is a real hassle as one has to go through customs and recheck bags whereas in Canada the process is much easier and quicker.
 
bagoldex
Posts: 1027
Joined: Thu Jan 25, 2007 3:33 pm

Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:19 am

YYZflyboy wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
YYZflyboy wrote:

There's Blackberry just west of Toronto (Waterloo region) and various fast-growing startups with ties to startup investors in the Bay Area and Seattle. Microsoft, Samsung, Amazon all have major headquarters in Mississauga (where YYZ is situated). Also, there is also aerospace (with Bombardier, as well as various companies with contracts with Boeing).


But that only yields ~150 passengers a day. DL would have zero connections, so it would require O/D. DTW/MSP are all on the way for DL to connect traffic.


But 150 passengers is enough to fill an A319/A320/B737. And they can get some connections via WestJet from the Atlantic provinces (PEI, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland) as well as Quebec. If Delta can get even 30-35 people connecting to SEA-HKG (huge HK diaspora in Toronto) alone, a 757 is not out of the question!


Air Canada’s flying the route with a daily E190 so that knocks the O & D pool down to about 60 pdew and as an outsider at AC’s main hub and Canada’s largest city, AC will remain the preferred carrier.

YYZflyboy wrote:
If Delta can get even 30-35 people connecting to SEA-HKG (huge HK diaspora in Toronto) alone, a 757 is not out of the question!


35 connecting passengers per day to Hong Kong? Try 35 per week to Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing and Shanghai.
 
airportlover
Posts: 87
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Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:46 pm

NYCVIE wrote:
airportlover wrote:
notconcerned wrote:

Dallas-Fort Worth GDP is approximately $500bil USD vs. Greater Toronto GDP at $300bil USD. While Toronto is probably better known internationally and more significant to Canada (as compared to DFW in the US), it doesn't necessarily mean there's higher traffic. The reason why DL would prioritize DFW/IAH/PHX etc. is because these are cities west of DTW/ATL and DL is competing with AA/UA for connecting passengers to feed its SEA TPAC gateway.

As mentioned, YYZ O&D is largely covered by AC, and any TPAC/West Coast connections are covered by DTW and MSP.


Really! I'm shocked that Dallas is larger than Toronto. I have always viewed Toronto as far larger than Dallas. I have thought of it to be only slightly smaller than Chicago. Also, it is really interesting that there is so little demand to Toronto from Seattle. From New York Toronto is a huge destination and extremely popular for business and tourism. I mean, everybody goes to Toronto at some point from New York. I also guess that from most of the US Canada is not really that important/often thought of. Here, we can be in Toronto an hour flight and Montreal in a 5:50 drive. People do it all the time for work and leisure. Sorry that I was mistaken about SEA-YYZ.


As someone who lives in NYC I get what you're saying, but it would be wrong to compare a smaller city on the other side of the country to NYC. For one, NYC has decent demand to just about anywhere but very few cities also have that quality. Secondly, just as Toronto is a destination for people from New York, Vancouver is one for people from Seattle. Lastly, Toronto is a big deal in the scope of Canada which itself is comparatively much smaller (population and economy wise) to the US.


Yeah, I just assumed this was true as I know it is true from much of the US, especially the Northeast and Florida.
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 1119
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:12 am

Re: When will DL have YYZ-SEA?

Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:47 pm

Realistically, how many people are going to connect in SEA to Asia when there are up to 3x daily flights from YYZ to HKG, 2x daily flights from YYZ to PEK/PVG/ICN, daily flights to HND and up to 5x weekly flights to CAN. YYZ is well served to Asia, there isn't a need to connect via a west coast hub. If the issue is alliance loyalty, DL can codeshare on MU/KE's daily flights, or CZ's 5x weekly flights.

Long story short, I don't see YYZ-SEA being driven by connections, YYZ is arguably better servrd in every long haul market then SEA, the only real connecting opportunities of value would be US, and even that entails a lot of backtracking.

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