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YuriMG2
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:38 pm

ATR chief executive Christian Scherer sees “no urgency” to decide about the turboprop family’s future development, despite Embraer’s evaluations about a potential return to the turboprop segment.

In 2017, Embraer indicated that it was exploring the possibility of returning to the turboprop market with a new aircraft. In September the Brazilian airframer held an initial customer advisory panel with more than 20 international operators to hear their views on the turboprop segment.

Noting Embraer’s E-Jet E2 development effort – the first model, the E190-E2, is scheduled to enter service in April – Scherer shows confidence that ATR will not be pushed by the competitor into a new aircraft programme. “If I was an Embraer shareholder… I would be very, very nervous to go and stick my neck out and launch a regional turboprop programme before I know what the leader in the field, namely… ATR, is going to do,” he says.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ef-445165/


What a gentleman. He is worried for the Embraer shareholders.

Someone is quite nervous. Lol
 
r2rho
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:37 am

What a gentleman. He is worried for the Embraer shareholders.
Someone is quite nervous. Lol

Agree - Embraer could do a pincer movement on ATR with the E2-175 from above and a new TP from below. Yes the E2 is "too much aircraft" compared to the ATR, but the GTF powered RJ's (even more so the MRJ) will dramatically reduce the fuel efficiency gap versus the ATR.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:56 am

r2rho wrote:
Yes the E2 is "too much aircraft" compared to the ATR, but the GTF powered RJ's (even more so the MRJ) will dramatically reduce the fuel efficiency gap versus the ATR.


The difference will still be huge.

Taking Fuel consumption table as reference, we get the following figures:

Embraer E-175 - 1650 kg/h
ATR 72-500 - 660 kg/h
ATR 72-600 - 700 kg/h

See, even when the E2 cuts fuel burn by 15%, it still burns roughly ~ 1400 kg/h compared to the <= 700 kg/h on the ATR.
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r2rho
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:41 am

Embraer E-175 - 1650 kg/h
ATR 72-500 - 660 kg/h
ATR 72-600 - 700 kg/h
See, even when the E2 cuts fuel burn by 15%, it still burns roughly ~ 1400 kg/h compared to the <= 700 kg/h on the ATR.

Thanks for the numbers - however the E2 also seats almost 20 more people at equivalent cabin configs. But even adjusting for that, it burns much more.
It would be interesting to have a figure for the MRJ70... assuming it is 15% better than CR7, according to that table it would be around 1200kg/hr, while carrying about 6 more pax than ATR in same config. Looks like the old PW100's still hold up well.

The question is: how much fuel burn advantage does the ATR need to maintain versus RJ's in order for airlines to be willing to live with its slower speed and thus less route flexibility?
 
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LA704
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:47 am

KarelXWB wrote:
r2rho wrote:
Yes the E2 is "too much aircraft" compared to the ATR, but the GTF powered RJ's (even more so the MRJ) will dramatically reduce the fuel efficiency gap versus the ATR.


The difference will still be huge.

Taking Fuel consumption table as reference, we get the following figures:

Embraer E-175 - 1650 kg/h
ATR 72-500 - 660 kg/h
ATR 72-600 - 700 kg/h

See, even when the E2 cuts fuel burn by 15%, it still burns roughly ~ 1400 kg/h compared to the <= 700 kg/h on the ATR.


Why does the newer -600 need more fuel than the older -500?
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xdlx
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:37 am

They need not to try reinvent the wheel......EMB120NG will be a great offering, bigger than the new Cessna TwinOtter but smaller than the E70's. a better wing than the original is the only thing needed on this aircraft.
 
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ITMercure
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:47 pm

Why does the newer -600 need more fuel than the older -500?[/quote]


Because itr flies a tad faster maybe ? Consumptions were given on a per hour basis (which is not, I think, the best way to compare a 550 kph turboprop with a 800 kph regional jet).
 
XNA2ASG
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:35 pm

LPSHobby wrote:



I think the new Cessna prop replaces the 20 seater no?


Just what I was thinking too! Embraer entering would be great though.
 
cheapgreek
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:25 am

Flying-Tiger wrote:
YIMBY wrote:
ATR was designed in the 80's after which there has not been very much development, 212 being launched in the 90's. DHC-8 has even longer history, though Q400 was introduced in 2000. A regional jet of comparable age includes BAe 146 which is quite uncomfortable.


Not quite true. The next ATR development was the -500 series, and more recently the -600 series, which has advanced quite a bit in terms of efficency, speed, payload and noise compared to the -200 series. It´s not that they´ve been standing still.

YIMBY wrote:
A cleansheet turboprop with today's technology and requirement would be comfortable enough compared with any RJ that passengers would not pay the difference.
They would be more fuel-efficient which is very important as passengers will be more and more environmentally conscious. And a turboprop will emit less noise which is important for airport surroundings and may allow to keep airports in the centres.


There is a saying in the market that any re-engining (!!) of the ATR series with either a new P&WC engine or a GE38 derivate needs to be about 15 % more efficient in fuel-burn and another 20-25% cheaper in maintenance. If this is already said for a re-engineing on a well known frame with limited development costs associated, how much more efficient do you need to have a cleen-sheet design to make it commercially worthwhile? And: have you ever flown the ATR? Not much of a difference compared to a regional jet... or a B737 or A320 for that matter. Cabins no more differ, really.

[quote="YIMBY]Unlike US, in Europe and Asia there are lots of short routes, optimal for turboprops, flown by RJs up to 747's. For 20 - 50 min flight times the speed difference in rather negligible, and the landing speeds of turboprops should be increased anyway to keep them in pace with jets. There is definitely demand for a new RJ sized turboprop (though I cannot say if it is worth the huge development costs - that also depends on the existing portfolio of the manufacturer).[/quote]

Yes and no. In Europe the number of turboprop operations is going down except for niche markets, not so much for regional jets but more for LCCs and rail plus road transport getting more competitive over time. Plus small-(plane)-scale operations simply getting more expensive. 19-seaters are principally completely out of the market, 30-seaters fight for their living with limited success except for niches, 50-seat turboprops try to soldier on, but again, the market is getting limited. 70 seat turboprops have a future left, but even they have to fight. Take a look on KLM´s network out of Amsterdam, which would be prime example for a turboprop on routes such as London, Norwich, Bremen etc, all barely 200 nm stage length, if at all. Still flown by Embraer 175/190 as the fleet flexibility is larger.

Whilest I would love to see a new 30/50/70 seat family I doubt that there is any commercial sense really left in it. In my opinion the only way forward would be a re-working of existing frames of either the Q100/200 or SF340 fleet, kind of "extreme plane makeover", but even then I´ve doubts that there is commercial sense in it.

In my opinion this is a market segment which will - long-term - mostly disappear in major markets except for niches. Little sense in developing anything new.[/quote][/quote]


Piedmont was approached years ago on extending the cycles on the Dash-8. The cost was 2 million per frame. Not worth the money spent on such an old plane. Anything below 50 seats is a waste due to having a crew flying such a small number of passengers and the current pilot shortage makes such flights wasteful as larger planes move more people and make more money. The trend is larger planes, both mainline and regional. There's no going back.
 
iceberg210
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Thu Mar 01, 2018 7:29 pm

Sounds like regardless of what Embraer does it'll be smaller than the E2's, although a new piece to the puzzle is it might be a jet instead of a turboprop it's sounding like.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ly-446355/

Interestingly enough there's also an article on Flight Global about Wideroe talking to Embraer about turboprops, unfortunately it's behind the paywall, if someone has a summary however that they could post that'd be very interesting.

Maybe it's just my silly idea but the fact that the largest variant of the 20% more efficient GE Advanced Turboprop is exactly the size you'd need to reengine the 120 I just keep coming back to. If you do slot a family under the E2, a 3 across cross section with tubroprops and maybe a 2 or three length family from 35 55 and or 60 (maybe with the 55 down to 50 to replace 50 seater RJ's) seats starts to look like it fits pretty well underneath the E2's.
Erik Berg
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william
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Thu Mar 01, 2018 7:49 pm

iceberg210 wrote:
Sounds like regardless of what Embraer does it'll be smaller than the E2's, although a new piece to the puzzle is it might be a jet instead of a turboprop it's sounding like.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ly-446355/

Interestingly enough there's also an article on Flight Global about Wideroe talking to Embraer about turboprops, unfortunately it's behind the paywall, if someone has a summary however that they could post that'd be very interesting.

Maybe it's just my silly idea but the fact that the largest variant of the 20% more efficient GE Advanced Turboprop is exactly the size you'd need to reengine the 120 I just keep coming back to. If you do slot a family under the E2, a 3 across cross section with tubroprops and maybe a 2 or three length family from 35 55 and or 60 (maybe with the 55 down to 50 to replace 50 seater RJ's) seats starts to look like it fits pretty well underneath the E2's.


So reuse the cabin sizes from the ERJs which is a reuse of the EMB 120 cabin size. Makes sense and should cut down costs. Not sure what EMB could do to take weight out of the cabin unless they go expensive CF in which case thats a whole new airplane.

The turboprops could go on the wing ala the 120 or rear mounted like the 123. Either way, not sure what or how much engineering other than lighter subsystems would need to be done.

Image
 
iceberg210
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Fri Mar 02, 2018 8:45 pm

william wrote:
So reuse the cabin sizes from the ERJs which is a reuse of the EMB 120 cabin size. Makes sense and should cut down costs. Not sure what EMB could do to take weight out of the cabin unless they go expensive CF in which case thats a whole new airplane.

The turboprops could go on the wing ala the 120 or rear mounted like the 123. Either way, not sure what or how much engineering other than lighter subsystems would need to be done.



I think you just keep the old metal construction, (the smaller the plane the less CF helps you in weight) and as you say lighten the subsystems.

What I wonder is if they could dust this thing off
https://www.flightglobal.com/pdfarchive ... =erj%20145
The original 145 was going to be a stretched 120 (like the 145 that was built) however with a enlarged 120 wing and jets on top of the wing. I've always wondered how much it would take to throw props on that exact plane, they got fairly far into the engineering on it is my understanding and a two member family off the bat with the 120 E2, and I guess you call it the 145E2T or something, if it really wouldn't take much work on the back end of updating the designs might just pencil. I don't think there's any hope of cleansheets in the market lower than the E2, so seems to me Embraer will have to dust off something if they want to make something pencil in that market.
Erik Berg
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william
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:05 pm

iceberg210 wrote:
william wrote:
So reuse the cabin sizes from the ERJs which is a reuse of the EMB 120 cabin size. Makes sense and should cut down costs. Not sure what EMB could do to take weight out of the cabin unless they go expensive CF in which case thats a whole new airplane.

The turboprops could go on the wing ala the 120 or rear mounted like the 123. Either way, not sure what or how much engineering other than lighter subsystems would need to be done.



I think you just keep the old metal construction, (the smaller the plane the less CF helps you in weight) and as you say lighten the subsystems.

What I wonder is if they could dust this thing off
https://www.flightglobal.com/pdfarchive ... =erj%20145
The original 145 was going to be a stretched 120 (like the 145 that was built) however with a enlarged 120 wing and jets on top of the wing. I've always wondered how much it would take to throw props on that exact plane, they got fairly far into the engineering on it is my understanding and a two member family off the bat with the 120 E2, and I guess you call it the 145E2T or something, if it really wouldn't take much work on the back end of updating the designs might just pencil. I don't think there's any hope of cleansheets in the market lower than the E2, so seems to me Embraer will have to dust off something if they want to make something pencil in that market.


Good find on the Embraer ad. The way I see, Embraer has two choices. Keeping in Boeing will have some "projects" keeping the Embraer engineers busy.

Embraer coud stretch the EMB120 from 30 to 50 seats. I had an EMB120 sales brochure and it stated it could breakeven at 10 of the 30 seats used, of course that depends on fares. I believe it was lighter than its main competitor the SAAB 340.

With a EMB 123 prototype flying but never going into production one can see this being inexpensive way to bring a new plane to the market and keep the sales price favorable. Use E145 cabin and add turboprops to the back. Could use the E145 tooling if still around.
 
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YuriMG2
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:25 pm

All Embraer engineers are pretty busy with 3 huge programs: E2, KC390 and the Gripen.

All of these program will be fully operational by 2021 and the engineers will be free to new programs. So dont expect any announcements before 2021.
 
Nean1
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:55 am

Perhaps it is time to modernize narrow-body aircraft such as the EMB-120 Brasilia (entry into service in 1985), the ERJ-145 (1996) and the Legacy 600 (2002).

There are more efficient offers in terms of avionics, command systems, engines / APUs, interiors...

A new generation starting from the same fuselage plus a lowered aisle floor, fly-by-wire, cockpit prepared for future operation with only 1 pilot could be something interesting to explore. The Safran Silvercrest turbines maybe are more suited to regional than executive jets if the difficulty in operations at altitudes above 40,000 feet is confirmed.
 
iceberg210
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:51 pm

https://leehamnews.com/2018/03/12/embra ... hing-soon/
Interesting to think Embraer sees the Q400 as likely to be put out to pasture soon. Also interesting that they're looking sounds like at electric under 50 seats, then another option bigger than the ATR. Don't know if anyone knows more about this article beyond what is in the summary.
Erik Berg
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eraugrad02
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:45 pm

There is def a market for the following.

Beech 1900D/ Jetstream 32= 19seats for small markets like KISO, KFLO, etc.
EMB 120/ Jetsream 4100, SAAB 340, Dash 8-Q200, ATR 42= 30 to 40 seats
ATR 72/ Dash 8 Q300/Q400, SAAB 1000= +50 seats.

All these markets need fast and comfortable aircrafts with added range to go from only to KCHO, KFLO, KISO, KOAJ- KCLT but to KPHL or KDFW, KDFW or KORD for international connections from small city pairs. not all cities need 30 to 70 seat planes but cities with airport like KISO could welcome airlines back with 19 seats to offer service to KCLT and KRDU and other small markets that had service to hubs until sept 11th its disgraceful that people that dont have air service need to drive to cities 1 or 2hrs away to catch a plane. You must admit towns like these need air services.
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seahawk
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:45 am

With the coming pilot shortage, those routes will die. 2 pilots for 30-40 passenger seats will not make economic sense in most western countries in a few years.
 
Noshow
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:46 am

I think that modern turboprops would make a lot of sense. They must be big enough and roomy enough and match small jet creature comfort, including baggage space and cabin noise.

It has been a big mistake by the industry to not actively market turboprops as the truly green, quiet and efficient planes they are. Instead most average passengers consider them to be "old propeller aircraft".
 
Noshow
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:59 am

I think from ATR size up turboprops are okay to use. A Jetstream or Metroliner feels to small to me.
Propfans seem to make sens only on longer segements and it remains to be seen where they get integrated at all.
 
FatCat
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:04 am

Turboprop or propfan?
A propfan would be quieter imho.

Noshow wrote:
It has been a big mistake by the industry to not actively market turboprops as the truly green, quiet and efficient planes they are. Instead most average passengers consider them to be "old propeller aircraft".


It's about "percieved quality".
Same as putting the same product in a fancy or in a basic packaging...
I didn't find the Dash 8-400 very quiet, anyway... :?
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lightsaber
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:09 pm

seahawk wrote:
With the coming pilot shortage, those routes will die. 2 pilots for 30-40 passenger seats will not make economic sense in most western countries in a few years.

Agreed, which is why I see a compromise on copilot ATPs. Otherwise small airports loise service which invites political help... This is a political problem with a political cure.

Lightsaber
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iceberg210
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:14 pm

lightsaber wrote:
seahawk wrote:
With the coming pilot shortage, those routes will die. 2 pilots for 30-40 passenger seats will not make economic sense in most western countries in a few years.

Agreed, which is why I see a compromise on copilot ATPs. Otherwise small airports loise service which invites political help... This is a political problem with a political cure.

Lightsaber

I've wondered if that change along with perhaps raising the 'no flight attendant needed' passenger number to 35 would be enough along with say the new Catalyst generation engines to make it so that you could make a 35 passenger prop compete again. Granted that's a lot of ifs to get there, but what strikes me is that those changes in regulation would probably do much more to help small community air service and with no cost than what millions in EAS could do.
Erik Berg
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Nean1
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:09 pm

The idea of automatic systems has been increasingly welcomed by the general public. The technology elements for an airplane to operate 100% automated are maturing rapidly. Probably regional aircraf with only 1 pilot and 1 flight atendant with some basic system training will be ready in less than 10 years, which will help revitalize the short-haul segment.

I see the future possibility of a modernization of the EMB-120 line, perhaps with an extended version optimized for small distances. Perhaps Embraer has the possibility to lead this trend given its broad capacity in flight systems.
 
HTCone
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Tue Jul 03, 2018 4:04 pm

I don’t see single pilot ops being extended to 30 odd seaters without an FA capable of landing the aircraft in the back. Flight crew incapacitation would prohibit it.
 
iceberg210
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Re: Embraer re-entering the Turboprop market?

Tue Jul 03, 2018 4:06 pm

Nean1 wrote:

I see the future possibility of a modernization of the EMB-120 line, perhaps with an extended version optimized for small distances. Perhaps Embraer has the possibility to lead this trend given its broad capacity in flight systems.

This is certainly what I'd like to see with a 50 seater stretch to replace CRJ's and ERJ's capacity wise (yes the performance wouldn't be there but for some markets it'd be the best option) Embraer even did work back in the day on stretching the 120 to that size and even had designed a wing for it (albeit with jets over the top) that I'm sure they could dust off.
Erik Berg
“Little by little, we advance with each turn. That's how a drill works!”

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