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User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 5271
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:11 pm

https://ir.delta.com/news-and-events/ne ... fault.aspx

https://ssl.lvl3.on24.com/event/18/80/4 ... 836173.pdf

Investor Day

NYC
"Profit Margin +18 pts"

"Replicating success in SEA/LAX/BOS"
    A220 a building block for margin expansion
    • Building top business market coverage
    • Upgauging high-demand routes
    • Creating scale and leveraging partnerships
    • Leading product and facility investment
    -----------------------------------
    -Upgauging strategy continues with introduction of
    new aircraft types
    -A220 deliveries enable retirement of additional
    50-seat regional jets
    – 85 MD88 aircraft remaining to retire by the end
    of 2020
    -By 2023, 45% of domestic seats will be on large
    mainline aircraft, up from 30% in 2018
    – Gauge to increase by ~7% over next 5 years
    -Order book allows for replacement of ~35% of mainline fleet by 2023
    Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
     
    evank516
    Posts: 2138
    Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

    Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

    Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:24 pm

    Midwestindy wrote:
    https://ir.delta.com/news-and-events/news/news-release-details/2018/Leading-the-way-Delta-highlights-its-powerful-brand-competitive-advantages-and-future-opportunities-at-annual-Investor-Day/default.aspx

    https://ssl.lvl3.on24.com/event/18/80/4 ... 836173.pdf

    Investor Day

    NYC
    "Profit Margin +18 pts"

    "Replicating success in SEA/LAX/BOS"
      A220 a building block for margin expansion
      • Building top business market coverage
      • Upgauging high-demand routes
      • Creating scale and leveraging partnerships
      • Leading product and facility investment
      -----------------------------------
      -Upgauging strategy continues with introduction of
      new aircraft types
      -A220 deliveries enable retirement of additional
      50-seat regional jets
      – 85 MD88 aircraft remaining to retire by the end
      of 2020
      -By 2023, 45% of domestic seats will be on large
      mainline aircraft, up from 30% in 2018
      – Gauge to increase by ~7% over next 5 years
      -Order book allows for replacement of ~35% of mainline fleet by 2023


      I'm highly curious to see when additional A220 routes will be announced. Page 19 leads me to believe that most RJ routes that currently see the CR9 (E179/175) will be upgauged to the A220. As we state here, it will be long routes on large RJs, but they will be upgauged nonetheless. I'm looking at you LGA-MCI.
       
      jplatts
      Posts: 3612
      Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

      Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

      Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:48 pm

      Midwestindy wrote:
      "Replicating success in SEA/LAX/BOS"


      DL used to serve SEA and BOS nonstop from DFW back when DL had a hub at DFW, and DL could bring back DFW-SEA and DFW-BOS nonstop service. I am also surprised that DL hasn't yet announced plans to bring back DFW-SEA nonstop service with DFW being one of the top destinations traveled to out of SEA that DL doesn't currently serve nonstop from SEA.

      Other top destinations traveled to out of SEA that aren't currently served nonstop out of SEA on DL include IAH, PHL, STL, TPA, SAT, ABQ, RNO, CLE, OMA, and FAT. In addition to bringing back SEA-DFW nonstop service, DL could also add SEA-IAH, SEA-PHL, SEA-STL, SEA-TPA, SEA-SAT, SEA-RNO, and SEA-CLE nonstop service.
      Last edited by jplatts on Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
       
      Fargo
      Posts: 810
      Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:00 am

      Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

      Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:49 pm

      Midwestindy wrote:
      https://ir.delta.com/news-and-events/news/news-release-details/2018/Leading-the-way-Delta-highlights-its-powerful-brand-competitive-advantages-and-future-opportunities-at-annual-Investor-Day/default.aspx

      https://ssl.lvl3.on24.com/event/18/80/4 ... 836173.pdf

      Investor Day

      NYC
      "Profit Margin +18 pts"

      "Replicating success in SEA/LAX/BOS"
        A220 a building block for margin expansion
        • Building top business market coverage
        • Upgauging high-demand routes
        • Creating scale and leveraging partnerships
        • Leading product and facility investment
        -----------------------------------
        -Upgauging strategy continues with introduction of
        new aircraft types
        -A220 deliveries enable retirement of additional
        50-seat regional jets
        – 85 MD88 aircraft remaining to retire by the end
        of 2020
        -By 2023, 45% of domestic seats will be on large
        mainline aircraft, up from 30% in 2018
        – Gauge to increase by ~7% over next 5 years
        -Order book allows for replacement of ~35% of mainline fleet by 2023


        I would like for them to expound on their domestic hub/network strategy going forward, specifically

        A. Their plans for SLC and how big can it get. Do they want to rival UA at DEN?

        B. Do they still plan to build SEA to 250 flights and are they working with SEA to build more gates beyond the current project?

        C. Their long term plan for DTW and MSP and if they plan to ever beef them up or reoptimize them.

        D. I know I’m opening a can of worms...... but I’d like to know if they have any plans to build a presence in AUS. Just a yes or no.
         
        Atlwarrior
        Posts: 476
        Joined: Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:42 am

        Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

        Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:56 pm

        https://seekingalpha.com/article/422810 ... -slideshow

        Well Damn, go head Delta. Pension funds 72% funded.
         
        DeltaRules
        Posts: 5181
        Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

        Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

        Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:10 pm

        Fargo wrote:
        Midwestindy wrote:
        https://ir.delta.com/news-and-events/news/news-release-details/2018/Leading-the-way-Delta-highlights-its-powerful-brand-competitive-advantages-and-future-opportunities-at-annual-Investor-Day/default.aspx

        https://ssl.lvl3.on24.com/event/18/80/4 ... 836173.pdf

        Investor Day

        NYC
        "Profit Margin +18 pts"

        "Replicating success in SEA/LAX/BOS"
          A220 a building block for margin expansion
          • Building top business market coverage
          • Upgauging high-demand routes
          • Creating scale and leveraging partnerships
          • Leading product and facility investment
          -----------------------------------
          -Upgauging strategy continues with introduction of
          new aircraft types
          -A220 deliveries enable retirement of additional
          50-seat regional jets
          – 85 MD88 aircraft remaining to retire by the end
          of 2020
          -By 2023, 45% of domestic seats will be on large
          mainline aircraft, up from 30% in 2018
          – Gauge to increase by ~7% over next 5 years
          -Order book allows for replacement of ~35% of mainline fleet by 2023


          I would like for them to expound on their domestic hub/network strategy going forward, specifically

          A. Their plans for SLC and how big can it get. Do they want to rival UA at DEN?

          B. Do they still plan to build SEA to 250 flights and are they working with SEA to build more gates beyond the current project?

          C. Their long term plan for DTW and MSP and if they plan to ever beef them up or reoptimize them.

          D. I know I’m opening a can of worms...... but I’d like to know if they have any plans to build a presence in AUS. Just a yes or no.


          I'm curious about more midsized cities like AUS and CMH being used to feed AMS/CDG.
          A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
           
          deltal1011man
          Posts: 5359
          Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

          Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

          Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:35 pm

          Also expect a JV application with GOL next year.
           
          MSPNWA
          Posts: 3698
          Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

          Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

          Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:32 pm

          I see they still are spreading the falsehood that ATL is within 2 hours of 80% of the US population. Maybe with Concorde you can argue that. Mach .78? Not even close to 80%.

          Midwestindy wrote:
          NYC
          "Profit Margin +18 pts"

          Once again they don't give an actual profit margin guidance for NYC. Likely the reason is that it's not impressive. It wouldn't fit the goal of creating a favorable perception of expansion into competitive markets such as NYC, SEA, LAX, and BOS.

          Atlwarrior wrote:
          https://seekingalpha.com/article/4228106-delta-air-lines-dal-investor-presentation-slideshow

          Well Damn, go head Delta. Pension funds 72% funded.

          We can assume they're continuing to use unrealistic expected return rates to make it appear like the pension is more funded that it actually is. The line, "Benefit from pension expected $200 - $250 million lower in 2019 due to below-average returns in 2018" gives the evidence that they still are using rates above reality.
           
          bkflyguy
          Posts: 232
          Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:25 pm

          Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

          Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:31 pm

          MSPNWA wrote:
          I see they still are spreading the falsehood that ATL is within 2 hours of 80% of the US population. Maybe with Concorde you can argue that. Mach .78? Not even close to 80%.

          Midwestindy wrote:
          NYC
          "Profit Margin +18 pts"

          Once again they don't give an actual profit margin guidance for NYC. Likely the reason is that it's not impressive. It wouldn't fit the goal of creating a favorable perception of expansion into competitive markets such as NYC, SEA, LAX, and BOS.

          Atlwarrior wrote:
          https://seekingalpha.com/article/4228106-delta-air-lines-dal-investor-presentation-slideshow

          Well Damn, go head Delta. Pension funds 72% funded.

          We can assume they're continuing to use unrealistic expected return rates to make it appear like the pension is more funded that it actually is. The line, "Benefit from pension expected $200 - $250 million lower in 2019 due to below-average returns in 2018" gives the evidence that they still are using rates above reality.


          Or maybe they are accounting for a slowing of rate increases by the feds and the continued softening of equities? Nah, DL is clearly doing some nefarious stuff and not revising forecasts based on actual market data.
           
          Atlwarrior
          Posts: 476
          Joined: Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:42 am

          Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

          Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:01 pm

          bkflyguy wrote:
          MSPNWA wrote:
          I see they still are spreading the falsehood that ATL is within 2 hours of 80% of the US population. Maybe with Concorde you can argue that. Mach .78? Not even close to 80%.

          Midwestindy wrote:
          NYC
          "Profit Margin +18 pts"

          Once again they don't give an actual profit margin guidance for NYC. Likely the reason is that it's not impressive. It wouldn't fit the goal of creating a favorable perception of expansion into competitive markets such as NYC, SEA, LAX, and BOS.

          Atlwarrior wrote:
          https://seekingalpha.com/article/4228106-delta-air-lines-dal-investor-presentation-slideshow

          Well Damn, go head Delta. Pension funds 72% funded.

          We can assume they're continuing to use unrealistic expected return rates to make it appear like the pension is more funded that it actually is. The line, "Benefit from pension expected $200 - $250 million lower in 2019 due to below-average returns in 2018" gives the evidence that they still are using rates above reality.


          Or maybe they are accounting for a slowing of rate increases by the feds and the continued softening of equities? Nah, DL is clearly doing some nefarious stuff and not revising forecasts based on actual market data.


          Exactly! They wouldn’t want to keep basic accounting acumen and report with real data. Furthermore, they are just mysteriously one of the most profitable S&P after many quarters.
           
          Fargo
          Posts: 810
          Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:00 am

          Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

          Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:20 pm

          DeltaRules wrote:
          Fargo wrote:
          Midwestindy wrote:
          https://ir.delta.com/news-and-events/news/news-release-details/2018/Leading-the-way-Delta-highlights-its-powerful-brand-competitive-advantages-and-future-opportunities-at-annual-Investor-Day/default.aspx

          https://ssl.lvl3.on24.com/event/18/80/4 ... 836173.pdf

          Investor Day

          NYC
          "Profit Margin +18 pts"

          "Replicating success in SEA/LAX/BOS"
            A220 a building block for margin expansion
            • Building top business market coverage
            • Upgauging high-demand routes
            • Creating scale and leveraging partnerships
            • Leading product and facility investment
            -----------------------------------
            -Upgauging strategy continues with introduction of
            new aircraft types
            -A220 deliveries enable retirement of additional
            50-seat regional jets
            – 85 MD88 aircraft remaining to retire by the end
            of 2020
            -By 2023, 45% of domestic seats will be on large
            mainline aircraft, up from 30% in 2018
            – Gauge to increase by ~7% over next 5 years
            -Order book allows for replacement of ~35% of mainline fleet by 2023


            I would like for them to expound on their domestic hub/network strategy going forward, specifically

            A. Their plans for SLC and how big can it get. Do they want to rival UA at DEN?

            B. Do they still plan to build SEA to 250 flights and are they working with SEA to build more gates beyond the current project?

            C. Their long term plan for DTW and MSP and if they plan to ever beef them up or reoptimize them.

            D. I know I’m opening a can of worms...... but I’d like to know if they have any plans to build a presence in AUS. Just a yes or no.


            I'm curious about more midsized cities like AUS and CMH being used to feed AMS/CDG.


            They probably will where it makes sense. Texas has weak Delta/SkyTeam coverage so it would make sense to add AUS-CDG or AMS. CMH would make sense because it is one of the largest mid-sized markets now without TATL service (and I believe it has a decent Delta FF base?).

            But I really want to know how they plan to optimize their existing hubs, particularly, MSP, DTW, SLC and SEA.

            No, I'm not one of those DTW fanboys, but I do think DTW is a bit underutilized as a connecting point and should be beefed up from 450 to 500-600 flights with more connections, while the MSP hub should be focused more on O&D as MSP is not quite as good of a connecting point (both geographically and the airport layout).

            With SLC undergoing reconstruction into a more efficient pier-style layout, do they plan to beef up there to try and rival UA at DEN, or are they going for something different?

            Finally, in SEA, is the long term plan still 250ish flights once they get enough gates, or are they scaling back their plans? With UA recently beefing up SFO, DL may need to step up their game in SEA in order to more effectively compete.
             
            User avatar
            Midwestindy
            Posts: 5271
            Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

            Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

            Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:29 am

            DeltaRules wrote:
            Fargo wrote:
            Midwestindy wrote:
            https://ir.delta.com/news-and-events/news/news-release-details/2018/Leading-the-way-Delta-highlights-its-powerful-brand-competitive-advantages-and-future-opportunities-at-annual-Investor-Day/default.aspx

            https://ssl.lvl3.on24.com/event/18/80/4 ... 836173.pdf

            Investor Day

            NYC
            "Profit Margin +18 pts"

            "Replicating success in SEA/LAX/BOS"
              A220 a building block for margin expansion
              • Building top business market coverage
              • Upgauging high-demand routes
              • Creating scale and leveraging partnerships
              • Leading product and facility investment
              -----------------------------------
              -Upgauging strategy continues with introduction of
              new aircraft types
              -A220 deliveries enable retirement of additional
              50-seat regional jets
              – 85 MD88 aircraft remaining to retire by the end
              of 2020
              -By 2023, 45% of domestic seats will be on large
              mainline aircraft, up from 30% in 2018
              – Gauge to increase by ~7% over next 5 years
              -Order book allows for replacement of ~35% of mainline fleet by 2023


              I would like for them to expound on their domestic hub/network strategy going forward, specifically

              A. Their plans for SLC and how big can it get. Do they want to rival UA at DEN?

              B. Do they still plan to build SEA to 250 flights and are they working with SEA to build more gates beyond the current project?

              C. Their long term plan for DTW and MSP and if they plan to ever beef them up or reoptimize them.

              D. I know I’m opening a can of worms...... but I’d like to know if they have any plans to build a presence in AUS. Just a yes or no.


              I'm curious about more midsized cities like AUS and CMH being used to feed AMS/CDG.


              Correct me if I am wrong, but I imagine DL doesn't have many extra 767s left for TATL, without cuts being made to existing flights.

              A. SLC will likely never rival UA at DEN
              D. DL has been quiet about expansion at AUS, they haven't announced anything in quite some time there other than AUS-CVG. Once they add or announce something, there would be something to talk about, but for now it's just rumors.
              Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
               
              Fargo
              Posts: 810
              Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:00 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:56 am

              Midwestindy wrote:
              DeltaRules wrote:
              Fargo wrote:

              I would like for them to expound on their domestic hub/network strategy going forward, specifically

              A. Their plans for SLC and how big can it get. Do they want to rival UA at DEN?

              B. Do they still plan to build SEA to 250 flights and are they working with SEA to build more gates beyond the current project?

              C. Their long term plan for DTW and MSP and if they plan to ever beef them up or reoptimize them.

              D. I know I’m opening a can of worms...... but I’d like to know if they have any plans to build a presence in AUS. Just a yes or no.


              I'm curious about more midsized cities like AUS and CMH being used to feed AMS/CDG.


              Correct me if I am wrong, but I imagine DL doesn't have many extra 767s left for TATL, without cuts being made to existing flights.

              A. SLC will likely never rival UA at DEN
              D. DL has been quiet about expansion at AUS, they haven't announced anything in quite some time there other than AUS-CVG. Once they add or announce something, there would be something to talk about, but for now it's just rumors.


              DL really needs to order some 788's to expand their TATL offerings and to put on their long and thin Asian routes. Forget the MOM/797, the remaining 767's not being replaced by the 330neo should be replaced by the 788. It would be much more versatile for their needs as opposed to the 797.

              Anyway, why can't SLC rival DEN? I get the Denver area is bigger in population and economically, but isn't hubs about connecting traffic? I know it's sort of an apples to oranges comparison, but CLT is a relatively small market yet has an over 600 flight AA hub. Granted, the SE is much more populated and it serves a different purpose, but I can't see why SLC can't get up to maybe 350-400 flights over the course of the next decade or so.

              P.S, about AUS, I wish they (DL) would simply say yes or no so this dumb speculation can end.
               
              MSPNWA
              Posts: 3698
              Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Fri Dec 14, 2018 6:01 am

              bkflyguy wrote:
              Or maybe they are accounting for a slowing of rate increases by the feds and the continued softening of equities? Nah, DL is clearly doing some nefarious stuff and not revising forecasts based on actual market data.


              That's not it. A high rate of return is set to make financial earnings appear the best they can in the short-run. With a high return rate of the pension assets, you appear to cause your unfunded portion to reduce more quickly without using as much earnings. It's not an uncommon practice, but it's not being honest either. Expect more announcements of underperformance until they lower their return rate to realistic levels.

              Fargo wrote:
              But I really want to know how they plan to optimize their existing hubs, particularly, MSP, DTW, SLC and SEA.

              No, I'm not one of those DTW fanboys, but I do think DTW is a bit underutilized as a connecting point and should be beefed up from 450 to 500-600 flights with more connections, while the MSP hub should be focused more on O&D as MSP is not quite as good of a connecting point (both geographically and the airport layout).

              With SLC undergoing reconstruction into a more efficient pier-style layout, do they plan to beef up there to try and rival UA at DEN, or are they going for something different?


              DL is in a tough spot growth-wise at MSP, DTW, and SLC. The one downside of having a fortress hub is that you can't add capacity past its natural demand without dinging your own margins. In essence you compete against yourself. And as we know, margins are everything for the airlines when they speak to investors. If DL went on a growth spurt at DTW or MSP, to keep planes full they either have to grab likely lower-margin connecting traffic, and/or see a decline in O&D fares. Both of those are margin-lowering scenarios. Overall profit is likely higher to a point, but airlines don't care much about that anymore. IMO that's the primary reason why we're seeing little to no growth at those three airports (ATL is seeing similar treatment).
               
              Fargo
              Posts: 810
              Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:00 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sat Dec 15, 2018 3:33 pm

              MSPNWA wrote:
              DL is in a tough spot growth-wise at MSP, DTW, and SLC. The one downside of having a fortress hub is that you can't add capacity past its natural demand without dinging your own margins. In essence you compete against yourself. And as we know, margins are everything for the airlines when they speak to investors. If DL went on a growth spurt at DTW or MSP, to keep planes full they either have to grab likely lower-margin connecting traffic, and/or see a decline in O&D fares. Both of those are margin-lowering scenarios. Overall profit is likely higher to a point, but airlines don't care much about that anymore. IMO that's the primary reason why we're seeing little to no growth at those three airports (ATL is seeing similar treatment).


              Good point, but hubs like CLT have capacity beyond its natural demand and is that hurting AA's margins? Seriously, I'm curious to know.

              Not to step on a landmine, but what I was thinking is the following.

              A. DL could cut the remaining non-hub flying from CVG and shift that capacity to DTW. I've long contended that CVG isn't really necessary in DL's network anymore, and CVG would be better off being freed from the DL stranglehold it has been under over the last two decades (yes, even today as competition has come into the airport, DL still has a lot of sway over the airport, as evidenced by their lease on B where they have way more gates than they need for their operation).

              B. DL could reoptimize DTW/MSP to flow more connections over DTW while focusing MSP on the rich O&D traffic. What I'm thinking here is a EWR/IAD-type situation that UA is doing.

              Both of these moves would push DTW up to around 500-550 flights. Not a huge increase, but enough where it could be a bit better reliever for ATL.
               
              User avatar
              Midwestindy
              Posts: 5271
              Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sat Dec 15, 2018 5:10 pm

              Fargo wrote:
              MSPNWA wrote:
              DL is in a tough spot growth-wise at MSP, DTW, and SLC. The one downside of having a fortress hub is that you can't add capacity past its natural demand without dinging your own margins. In essence you compete against yourself. And as we know, margins are everything for the airlines when they speak to investors. If DL went on a growth spurt at DTW or MSP, to keep planes full they either have to grab likely lower-margin connecting traffic, and/or see a decline in O&D fares. Both of those are margin-lowering scenarios. Overall profit is likely higher to a point, but airlines don't care much about that anymore. IMO that's the primary reason why we're seeing little to no growth at those three airports (ATL is seeing similar treatment).


              Good point, but hubs like CLT have capacity beyond its natural demand and is that hurting AA's margins? Seriously, I'm curious to know.

              Not to step on a landmine, but what I was thinking is the following.

              A. DL could cut the remaining non-hub flying from CVG and shift that capacity to DTW. I've long contended that CVG isn't really necessary in DL's network anymore, and CVG would be better off being freed from the DL stranglehold it has been under over the last two decades (yes, even today as competition has come into the airport, DL still has a lot of sway over the airport, as evidenced by their lease on B where they have way more gates than they need for their operation).

              B. DL could reoptimize DTW/MSP to flow more connections over DTW while focusing MSP on the rich O&D traffic. What I'm thinking here is a EWR/IAD-type situation that UA is doing.

              Both of these moves would push DTW up to around 500-550 flights. Not a huge increase, but enough where it could be a bit better reliever for ATL.


              A. CVG has already been trimmed heavily, they don't want to alienate the large FF base they have there by cutting too much more.
              https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/ ... -from.html

              B. Growth will not come from DTW/MSP. There is no need to significantly grow DTW and MSP because they are not competing with any major carriers for market share at those places. Growth is coming from LAX, SEA, and BOS, as those are markets that are highly competitive at the moment, and they need growth at those places to defend/grow their market share. Sure there will be incremental growth at DTW and MSP, but there is no need to greatly increase capacity through DTW and MSP.
              Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
               
              digitalcloud
              Posts: 162
              Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:03 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sat Dec 15, 2018 5:14 pm

              W19 timetable suggests GLA and TXL will operate into winter.
               
              User avatar
              flymco753
              Posts: 3385
              Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sat Dec 15, 2018 5:39 pm

              Not really much more DL can do domestically from DTW & MSP other than the token flights like DTW-SJC/SMF or MSP-SAV/CHS. If anything, growth at these hubs will be done with JV partners like AM at DTW and WS at MSP. Of course there can be some crossover like some WS stuff from DTW like YOW and YYC, and MEX from MSP on AM.
              ...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
               
              Fargo
              Posts: 810
              Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:00 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sat Dec 15, 2018 11:07 pm

              Midwestindy wrote:
              A. CVG has already been trimmed heavily, they don't want to alienate the large FF base they have there by cutting too much more.
              https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/ ... -from.html


              I know they've been cut heavily, but what's the purpose of keeping a focus city there? I know it's not small potatoes, but CVG isn't anywhere near the level of BOS & RDU as far as growth and economic significance. Increasingly, they (DL) are facing bloodbaths on the routes they operate on out of CVG, including Chicago, Denver, Orlando, etc. At some point, they are going to have to decide if the market is really worth fighting for. They already have two really good midwest hubs in DTW/MSP, why keep pouring money into maintaining a CVG operation? Invest the resources in the competitive markets you were mentioning (LAX, SEA, BOS). CVG doesn't need to be anything more than IND; hub flying, Paris and some seasonal Florida flying.
               
              jbs2886
              Posts: 2358
              Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sat Dec 15, 2018 11:43 pm

              Fargo wrote:
              Midwestindy wrote:
              A. CVG has already been trimmed heavily, they don't want to alienate the large FF base they have there by cutting too much more.
              https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/ ... -from.html


              I know they've been cut heavily, but what's the purpose of keeping a focus city there? I know it's not small potatoes, but CVG isn't anywhere near the level of BOS & RDU as far as growth and economic significance. Increasingly, they (DL) are facing bloodbaths on the routes they operate on out of CVG, including Chicago, Denver, Orlando, etc. At some point, they are going to have to decide if the market is really worth fighting for. They already have two really good midwest hubs in DTW/MSP, why keep pouring money into maintaining a CVG operation? Invest the resources in the competitive markets you were mentioning (LAX, SEA, BOS). CVG doesn't need to be anything more than IND; hub flying, Paris and some seasonal Florida flying.


              I suspect the size operation at CVG is very profitable. Any connections offered allow some marginal increase in profitability, but its more O&D focused. Indeed, I expect the corporate contracts are key here and the corporations in CVG have large presences in other markets, thus making the contract significant to the system.

              Frankly, CVG isn't a drain on resources to other parts of the system - those cuts have already happened. Moreover, while CVG is not BOS it certainly holds its own against RDU - P&G, Kroger, Macy's and part of GE are significant operations.
               
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              Midwestindy
              Posts: 5271
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              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sun Dec 16, 2018 12:41 am

              jbs2886 wrote:
              Fargo wrote:
              Midwestindy wrote:
              A. CVG has already been trimmed heavily, they don't want to alienate the large FF base they have there by cutting too much more.
              https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/ ... -from.html


              I know they've been cut heavily, but what's the purpose of keeping a focus city there? I know it's not small potatoes, but CVG isn't anywhere near the level of BOS & RDU as far as growth and economic significance. Increasingly, they (DL) are facing bloodbaths on the routes they operate on out of CVG, including Chicago, Denver, Orlando, etc. At some point, they are going to have to decide if the market is really worth fighting for. They already have two really good midwest hubs in DTW/MSP, why keep pouring money into maintaining a CVG operation? Invest the resources in the competitive markets you were mentioning (LAX, SEA, BOS). CVG doesn't need to be anything more than IND; hub flying, Paris and some seasonal Florida flying.


              I suspect the size operation at CVG is very profitable. Any connections offered allow some marginal increase in profitability, but its more O&D focused. Indeed, I expect the corporate contracts are key here and the corporations in CVG have large presences in other markets, thus making the contract significant to the system.

              Frankly, CVG isn't a drain on resources to other parts of the system - those cuts have already happened. Moreover, while CVG is not BOS it certainly holds its own against RDU - P&G, Kroger, Macy's and part of GE are significant operations.


              Not sure how profitable CVG is currently, as there are a number of routes that have very low yields. I know a few years back it was very profitable, but since then WN and other carriers have had a sizable impact on fares. To put it into perspective, airfares at CVG have dropped 43 percent in the past 3 years.

              With all do respect to CVG, it isn't on the same plane as RDU. As RDU pulls above its weight for pharma and even tech, plus it is a fast growing region.

              Fargo wrote:
              Midwestindy wrote:
              A. CVG has already been trimmed heavily, they don't want to alienate the large FF base they have there by cutting too much more.
              https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/ ... -from.html


              I know they've been cut heavily, but what's the purpose of keeping a focus city there? I know it's not small potatoes, but CVG isn't anywhere near the level of BOS & RDU as far as growth and economic significance. Increasingly, they (DL) are facing bloodbaths on the routes they operate on out of CVG, including Chicago, Denver, Orlando, etc. At some point, they are going to have to decide if the market is really worth fighting for. They already have two really good midwest hubs in DTW/MSP, why keep pouring money into maintaining a CVG operation? Invest the resources in the competitive markets you were mentioning (LAX, SEA, BOS). CVG doesn't need to be anything more than IND; hub flying, Paris and some seasonal Florida flying.


              They will keep most of the CVG non-hub flying, stuff like BDL, DCA, MCI, e.t.c will stay. The only cuts I see happening in the future are CLT, ORD, PHL, and MAYBE BWI and IAH. I don't think DL will ever drop CVG below 60 departures as long as the Pilot Base remains.
              Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
               
              ShinyAndChrome
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              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sun Dec 16, 2018 1:04 am

              Fargo wrote:
              Midwestindy wrote:
              A. CVG has already been trimmed heavily, they don't want to alienate the large FF base they have there by cutting too much more.
              https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/ ... -from.html


              I know they've been cut heavily, but what's the purpose of keeping a focus city there? I know it's not small potatoes, but CVG isn't anywhere near the level of BOS & RDU as far as growth and economic significance. Increasingly, they (DL) are facing bloodbaths on the routes they operate on out of CVG, including Chicago, Denver, Orlando, etc. At some point, they are going to have to decide if the market is really worth fighting for. They already have two really good midwest hubs in DTW/MSP, why keep pouring money into maintaining a CVG operation? Invest the resources in the competitive markets you were mentioning (LAX, SEA, BOS). CVG doesn't need to be anything more than IND; hub flying, Paris and some seasonal Florida flying.


              I'd imagine everything in CVG now more or less pulls its weight P&L wise. If it didn't it would've been cut after the merger. As for the market itself, while it might not have the growth prospects of a BOS or RDU, DL already has a commanding share of the market and FF base, something they're still trying to build in their focus cities. No reason to threaten that if it's making you money.
               
              Fargo
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              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sun Dec 16, 2018 2:06 am

              Midwestindy wrote:
              They will keep most of the CVG non-hub flying, stuff like BDL, DCA, MCI, e.t.c will stay. The only cuts I see happening in the future are CLT, ORD, PHL, and MAYBE BWI and IAH. I don't think DL will ever drop CVG below 60 departures as long as the Pilot Base remains.


              I'd add STL if/when WN jumps on that route.

              Actually, if WN were to expand to include most of its operating bases/focus cities in CVG, then I'd say the DL focus city would be in some trouble.
               
              lavalampluva
              Posts: 1433
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              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sun Dec 16, 2018 2:27 am

              flymco753 wrote:
              Not really much more DL can do domestically from DTW & MSP other than the token flights like DTW-SJC/SMF or MSP-SAV/CHS. If anything, growth at these hubs will be done with JV partners like AM at DTW and WS at MSP. Of course there can be some crossover like some WS stuff from DTW like YOW and YYC, and MEX from MSP on AM.

              They could expand from DTW to the West but that competes with MSP and SLC. They could also have a push to the SE from MSP, but that competes with the mothership. They could try expansion again to the business areas of Mexico, but it’s failed once. Maybe AM could do better.
              Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
               
              MSPNWA
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              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sun Dec 16, 2018 3:05 am

              Fargo wrote:
              Good point, but hubs like CLT have capacity beyond its natural demand and is that hurting AA's margins? Seriously, I'm curious to know.

              Not to step on a landmine, but what I was thinking is the following.

              A. DL could cut the remaining non-hub flying from CVG and shift that capacity to DTW. I've long contended that CVG isn't really necessary in DL's network anymore, and CVG would be better off being freed from the DL stranglehold it has been under over the last two decades (yes, even today as competition has come into the airport, DL still has a lot of sway over the airport, as evidenced by their lease on B where they have way more gates than they need for their operation).

              B. DL could reoptimize DTW/MSP to flow more connections over DTW while focusing MSP on the rich O&D traffic. What I'm thinking here is a EWR/IAD-type situation that UA is doing.

              Both of these moves would push DTW up to around 500-550 flights. Not a huge increase, but enough where it could be a bit better reliever for ATL.


              CLT isn't beyond natural demand if we look at its traffic history. Natural demand in this context means total traffic--O&D and connecting. Now CLT capacity is somewhat constrained by its gates, but it's important to note that traffic growth at CLT has been slow for a decade. That's evidence that it's reached its prime size for AA.
               
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              compensateme
              Posts: 3279
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              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sun Dec 16, 2018 4:31 am

              MSPNWA wrote:
              Fargo wrote:
              Good point, but hubs like CLT have capacity beyond its natural demand and is that hurting AA's margins? Seriously, I'm curious to know.

              Not to step on a landmine, but what I was thinking is the following.

              A. DL could cut the remaining non-hub flying from CVG and shift that capacity to DTW. I've long contended that CVG isn't really necessary in DL's network anymore, and CVG would be better off being freed from the DL stranglehold it has been under over the last two decades (yes, even today as competition has come into the airport, DL still has a lot of sway over the airport, as evidenced by their lease on B where they have way more gates than they need for their operation).

              B. DL could reoptimize DTW/MSP to flow more connections over DTW while focusing MSP on the rich O&D traffic. What I'm thinking here is a EWR/IAD-type situation that UA is doing.

              Both of these moves would push DTW up to around 500-550 flights. Not a huge increase, but enough where it could be a bit better reliever for ATL.


              CLT isn't beyond natural demand if we look at its traffic history. Natural demand in this context means total traffic--O&D and connecting. Now CLT capacity is somewhat constrained by its gates, but it's important to note that traffic growth at CLT has been slow for a decade. That's evidence that it's reached its prime size for AA.


              CLT pulls well beyond its weight; traffic has doubled since 9-11, and most of it is the connecting variety. Traffic stagnated in 2014-2016, but was up 5% last year, so no, it hasnt been slow for a decade.
              We don’t care what your next flight is.
               
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              Midwestindy
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              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sun Dec 16, 2018 2:04 pm

              ShinyAndChrome wrote:
              Fargo wrote:
              Midwestindy wrote:
              A. CVG has already been trimmed heavily, they don't want to alienate the large FF base they have there by cutting too much more.
              https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/ ... -from.html


              I know they've been cut heavily, but what's the purpose of keeping a focus city there? I know it's not small potatoes, but CVG isn't anywhere near the level of BOS & RDU as far as growth and economic significance. Increasingly, they (DL) are facing bloodbaths on the routes they operate on out of CVG, including Chicago, Denver, Orlando, etc. At some point, they are going to have to decide if the market is really worth fighting for. They already have two really good midwest hubs in DTW/MSP, why keep pouring money into maintaining a CVG operation? Invest the resources in the competitive markets you were mentioning (LAX, SEA, BOS). CVG doesn't need to be anything more than IND; hub flying, Paris and some seasonal Florida flying.


              I'd imagine everything in CVG now more or less pulls its weight P&L wise. If it didn't it would've been cut after the merger. As for the market itself, while it might not have the growth prospects of a BOS or RDU, DL already has a commanding share of the market and FF base, something they're still trying to build in their focus cities. No reason to threaten that if it's making you money.


              That isn't necessarily true, CVG-XNA/MKE/BNA were running for many years unprofitably, and were just now cut. After the merger they still were able to command a heavy fare premium from CVG flyers, but as more competition has entered the market ticket prices have plummeted for DL, hence routes like CVG-XNA/MKE/BNA unable to be kept around.

              I was interested in the market share aspect of what you said, so looking at Fares from Q2 2018/2015: https://www.transtats.bts.gov/DL_SelectFields.asp
              I created a chart to show the changes in the market since 2015:
              https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

              From CVG DL has gotten severely hurt by the influx in ULCC./LCC service
              Here are some of the route pairs were average fares dropped the most of DL
              CVG-LGA -182
              *CVG-BNA -156
              CVG-EWR -133
              CVG-ORD -131
              CVG-DTW -129
              CVG-MSP -127
              CVG-RDU -106
              *CVG-MKE -95
              *Denotes dropped service

              Furthermore, there are very few routes with competition where DL outperforms AA/UA.
              Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
               
              jb1087xna
              Posts: 493
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              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sun Dec 16, 2018 4:11 pm

              Midwestindy wrote:
              That isn't necessarily true, CVG-XNA/MKE/BNA were running for many years unprofitably, and were just now cut. After the merger they still were able to command a heavy fare premium from CVG flyers, but as more competition has entered the market ticket prices have plummeted for DL, hence routes like CVG-XNA/MKE/BNA unable to be kept around.

              I was interested in the market share aspect of what you said, so looking at Fares from Q2 2018/2015: https://www.transtats.bts.gov/DL_SelectFields.asp
              I created a chart to show the changes in the market since 2015:
              https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

              From CVG DL has gotten severely hurt by the influx in ULCC./LCC service
              Here are some of the route pairs were average fares dropped the most of DL
              CVG-LGA -182
              *CVG-BNA -156
              CVG-EWR -133
              CVG-ORD -131
              CVG-DTW -129
              CVG-MSP -127
              CVG-RDU -106
              *CVG-MKE -95
              *Denotes dropped service

              Furthermore, there are very few routes with competition where DL outperforms AA/UA.


              Any XNA fare change would've either been AA throwing its weight around, being the dominant carrier here and having the CLT/ORD connections, or DL lowering fares on it's own because consistent demand just isn't there for XNA-CVG, despite Walmart and P&G anchoring both ends.
              Not disagreeing that the route isn't needed or unprofitable, just noting that (unfortunately) fares haven't been lowered by any LCC/ULCC entering the market.
               
              MSPNWA
              Posts: 3698
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              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:09 pm

              compensateme wrote:
              CLT pulls well beyond its weight; traffic has doubled since 9-11, and most of it is the connecting variety. Traffic stagnated in 2014-2016, but was up 5% last year, so no, it hasnt been slow for a decade.


              Is this Alternatereality.net? CLT has only grown about 14% since its pre-recession peak in 2008. That's one of the lower growth rates among the top-20 airports (5% in the last year would also be in the low half). Interestingly a common theme is for fortress hubs to have low growth rates over the past decade. IAH, PHL, and DTW are three that have stagnated even more (and MSP would be included if we go compare to 2006/7). It's not hard to see the evidence for why airlines with fortress hubs don't have a desire to grow beyond an optimized point.

              This has nothing to do with "pulling above weight", nor is it a comparison of 9/11 levels.
               
              ShinyAndChrome
              Posts: 280
              Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:52 pm

              Midwestindy wrote:
              ShinyAndChrome wrote:
              Fargo wrote:

              I know they've been cut heavily, but what's the purpose of keeping a focus city there? I know it's not small potatoes, but CVG isn't anywhere near the level of BOS & RDU as far as growth and economic significance. Increasingly, they (DL) are facing bloodbaths on the routes they operate on out of CVG, including Chicago, Denver, Orlando, etc. At some point, they are going to have to decide if the market is really worth fighting for. They already have two really good midwest hubs in DTW/MSP, why keep pouring money into maintaining a CVG operation? Invest the resources in the competitive markets you were mentioning (LAX, SEA, BOS). CVG doesn't need to be anything more than IND; hub flying, Paris and some seasonal Florida flying.


              I'd imagine everything in CVG now more or less pulls its weight P&L wise. If it didn't it would've been cut after the merger. As for the market itself, while it might not have the growth prospects of a BOS or RDU, DL already has a commanding share of the market and FF base, something they're still trying to build in their focus cities. No reason to threaten that if it's making you money.


              That isn't necessarily true, CVG-XNA/MKE/BNA were running for many years unprofitably, and were just now cut. After the merger they still were able to command a heavy fare premium from CVG flyers, but as more competition has entered the market ticket prices have plummeted for DL, hence routes like CVG-XNA/MKE/BNA unable to be kept around.

              I was interested in the market share aspect of what you said, so looking at Fares from Q2 2018/2015: https://www.transtats.bts.gov/DL_SelectFields.asp
              I created a chart to show the changes in the market since 2015:
              https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

              From CVG DL has gotten severely hurt by the influx in ULCC./LCC service
              Here are some of the route pairs were average fares dropped the most of DL
              CVG-LGA -182
              *CVG-BNA -156
              CVG-EWR -133
              CVG-ORD -131
              CVG-DTW -129
              CVG-MSP -127
              CVG-RDU -106
              *CVG-MKE -95
              *Denotes dropped service

              Furthermore, there are very few routes with competition where DL outperforms AA/UA.


              Market share and average fares are two separate things, though. And there isn't an exact one-for-one relationship between the two, they're only one factor that affect the other. And DL "outperforming" AA/UA or not is hardly relevant to this topic if you're looking at route data going both ways. For something like CVG-EWR, where the EWR end is a larger market where UA gets an outsized passenger share, it makes sense that UA will get a higher fare. In terms of exit-CVG/CVG-based pax my point still stands.

              And of course when I talked about market share in the first place, it was relative to places that DL is growing for strategic regions like BOS and RDU. I'd wager that fares adjusted for distance are higher in CVG than their equivalents in those cities. I'm sure tphuang will come by soon to offer some harder data on that point.
               
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              compensateme
              Posts: 3279
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              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sun Dec 16, 2018 7:35 pm

              MSPNWA wrote:
              compensateme wrote:
              CLT pulls well beyond its weight; traffic has doubled since 9-11, and most of it is the connecting variety. Traffic stagnated in 2014-2016, but was up 5% last year, so no, it hasnt been slow for a decade.


              Is this Alternatereality.net? CLT has only grown about 14% since its pre-recession peak in 2008. That's one of the lower growth rates among the top-20 airports (5% in the last year would also be in the low half). Interestingly a common theme is for fortress hubs to have low growth rates over the past decade. IAH, PHL, and DTW are three that have stagnated even more (and MSP would be included if we go compare to 2006/7). It's not hard to see the evidence for why airlines with fortress hubs don't have a desire to grow beyond an optimized point.

              This has nothing to do with "pulling above weight", nor is it a comparison of 9/11 levels.


              What numbers are you using? I’m comparing total annual enplanements; CLT’s up 32% since 2008 — likely the highest of any trunk hub. In comparison, ATL is up 16%, MSP 12% and DTW is -1%.
              We don’t care what your next flight is.
               
              SESGDL
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              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sun Dec 16, 2018 8:02 pm

              compensateme wrote:
              MSPNWA wrote:
              compensateme wrote:
              CLT pulls well beyond its weight; traffic has doubled since 9-11, and most of it is the connecting variety. Traffic stagnated in 2014-2016, but was up 5% last year, so no, it hasnt been slow for a decade.


              Is this Alternatereality.net? CLT has only grown about 14% since its pre-recession peak in 2008. That's one of the lower growth rates among the top-20 airports (5% in the last year would also be in the low half). Interestingly a common theme is for fortress hubs to have low growth rates over the past decade. IAH, PHL, and DTW are three that have stagnated even more (and MSP would be included if we go compare to 2006/7). It's not hard to see the evidence for why airlines with fortress hubs don't have a desire to grow beyond an optimized point.

              This has nothing to do with "pulling above weight", nor is it a comparison of 9/11 levels.


              What numbers are you using? I’m comparing total annual enplanements; CLT’s up 32% since 2008 — likely the highest of any trunk hub. In comparison, ATL is up 16%, MSP 12% and DTW is -1%.


              He's using the numbers that would aim to substantiate whatever anti-DL claim he's pushing today. Of course CLT is not overserved in his eyes, that wouldn't fit his narrative that DL is somehow doing things differently from AA and UA, two far more ethical corporations. The numbers are indisputable, CLT's passenger counts listed below:

              2001 - 23,177,555
              2008 - 34,739,020
              2017 - 45,909,899

              Jeremy
               
              MSPNWA
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              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sun Dec 16, 2018 8:32 pm

              compensateme wrote:
              What numbers are you using? I’m comparing total annual enplanements; CLT’s up 32% since 2008 — likely the highest of any trunk hub. In comparison, ATL is up 16%, MSP 12% and DTW is -1%.


              FAA. Unfortunately I see now that the Wikipedia table appears to be wrong in the 2009 CLT data I was referencing. Nothing intentional, sorry. If I go right to the FFA tables linked, CLT's gain since 2009 is 28%, which is on the high end (although not the highest for any airport with a hub airline). However since 2013 it's been nearly flat. So the relevant evidence still points to the relevant economic theory that once a fortress hub is at a prime capacity, there's little incentive for growth. And why is it relevant to the fact that in general fortress hubs naturally offer little to no growth incentive beyond catchment demand increases? And what does CLT have anything to do with DL's own evidence with its fortress hubs? Ironically your argument with CLT is implying that DL may have their growth strategy wrong.

              SESGDL wrote:
              He's using the numbers that would aim to substantiate whatever anti-DL claim he's pushing today. Of course CLT is not overserved in his eyes, that wouldn't fit his narrative that DL is somehow doing things differently from AA and UA, two far more ethical corporations. The numbers are indisputable, CLT's passenger counts listed below:


              My arguments in debates don't require personal attacks to create a perception of relevance and accuracy. I'd appreciate the same respect and maturity I give to you, as difficult as that is.
               
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              Midwestindy
              Posts: 5271
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              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sun Dec 16, 2018 8:39 pm

              ShinyAndChrome wrote:
              Midwestindy wrote:
              ShinyAndChrome wrote:

              I'd imagine everything in CVG now more or less pulls its weight P&L wise. If it didn't it would've been cut after the merger. As for the market itself, while it might not have the growth prospects of a BOS or RDU, DL already has a commanding share of the market and FF base, something they're still trying to build in their focus cities. No reason to threaten that if it's making you money.


              That isn't necessarily true, CVG-XNA/MKE/BNA were running for many years unprofitably, and were just now cut. After the merger they still were able to command a heavy fare premium from CVG flyers, but as more competition has entered the market ticket prices have plummeted for DL, hence routes like CVG-XNA/MKE/BNA unable to be kept around.

              I was interested in the market share aspect of what you said, so looking at Fares from Q2 2018/2015: https://www.transtats.bts.gov/DL_SelectFields.asp
              I created a chart to show the changes in the market since 2015:
              https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

              From CVG DL has gotten severely hurt by the influx in ULCC./LCC service
              Here are some of the route pairs were average fares dropped the most of DL
              CVG-LGA -182
              *CVG-BNA -156
              CVG-EWR -133
              CVG-ORD -131
              CVG-DTW -129
              CVG-MSP -127
              CVG-RDU -106
              *CVG-MKE -95
              *Denotes dropped service

              Furthermore, there are very few routes with competition where DL outperforms AA/UA.


              Market share and average fares are two separate things, though. And there isn't an exact one-for-one relationship between the two, they're only one factor that affect the other. And DL "outperforming" AA/UA or not is hardly relevant to this topic if you're looking at route data going both ways. For something like CVG-EWR, where the EWR end is a larger market where UA gets an outsized passenger share, it makes sense that UA will get a higher fare. In terms of exit-CVG/CVG-based pax my point still stands.

              And of course when I talked about market share in the first place, it was relative to places that DL is growing for strategic regions like BOS and RDU. I'd wager that fares adjusted for distance are higher in CVG than their equivalents in those cities. I'm sure tphuang will come by soon to offer some harder data on that point.


              They are very obviously two different things. However, you said DL has a "commanding share of the market", and the fact that average fares have dropped drastically is a major aspect to look at, and hardly something you should look over.

              And since you would like to discuss Market Share, here are some data points to look at:
              https://data.transportation.gov/Aviatio ... -b2ir/data

              2015-2018 both ways included
              CVG-NYC
              Market Share 2015: 53.15%/$228
              Market Share 2018: 46.00%/$412
              Loss of Market Share: 7.15%

              CVG-WAS
              Market Share 2015: 54.21%/$213
              Market Share 2018: 35.82%/$167
              Loss of Market Share: 18.4%

              CVG-PHL
              Market Share 2015: 28.43%/$311
              Market Share 2018: 28.47%/$197
              Gain of Market Share: .04%

              Furthermore, I looked through the adjusted fares by distance, and RDU and CVG are about equal at this point. With RDU having an itinerary yield of 0.3135 and CVG of 0.3291. We can go through market by market, analyzing DL's position. However, it is evident that DL's control of the CVG market is not nearly what it used to be.
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              cvgComair
              Posts: 2040
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              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sun Dec 16, 2018 8:56 pm

              Midwestindy wrote:
              ShinyAndChrome wrote:
              Fargo wrote:

              I know they've been cut heavily, but what's the purpose of keeping a focus city there? I know it's not small potatoes, but CVG isn't anywhere near the level of BOS & RDU as far as growth and economic significance. Increasingly, they (DL) are facing bloodbaths on the routes they operate on out of CVG, including Chicago, Denver, Orlando, etc. At some point, they are going to have to decide if the market is really worth fighting for. They already have two really good midwest hubs in DTW/MSP, why keep pouring money into maintaining a CVG operation? Invest the resources in the competitive markets you were mentioning (LAX, SEA, BOS). CVG doesn't need to be anything more than IND; hub flying, Paris and some seasonal Florida flying.


              I'd imagine everything in CVG now more or less pulls its weight P&L wise. If it didn't it would've been cut after the merger. As for the market itself, while it might not have the growth prospects of a BOS or RDU, DL already has a commanding share of the market and FF base, something they're still trying to build in their focus cities. No reason to threaten that if it's making you money.


              That isn't necessarily true, CVG-XNA/MKE/BNA were running for many years unprofitably, and were just now cut. After the merger they still were able to command a heavy fare premium from CVG flyers, but as more competition has entered the market ticket prices have plummeted for DL, hence routes like CVG-XNA/MKE/BNA unable to be kept around.

              I was interested in the market share aspect of what you said, so looking at Fares from Q2 2018/2015: https://www.transtats.bts.gov/DL_SelectFields.asp
              I created a chart to show the changes in the market since 2015:
              https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

              From CVG DL has gotten severely hurt by the influx in ULCC./LCC service
              Here are some of the route pairs were average fares dropped the most of DL
              CVG-LGA -182
              *CVG-BNA -156
              CVG-EWR -133
              CVG-ORD -131
              CVG-DTW -129
              CVG-MSP -127
              CVG-RDU -106
              *CVG-MKE -95
              *Denotes dropped service

              Furthermore, there are very few routes with competition where DL outperforms AA/UA.

              One thing to keep in mind is that from 2015 to 2018, the number of connecting passengers has plummeted. Although fares from CVG were higher, I imagine many of those connecting passengers were on cheap tickets connecting in Cincinnati. DL was around 30% connecting in 2015 and many of the RJ flights had much higher percentages (some like BNA/MEM/XNA were well over 50% connecting). While average fares have fallen for CVG, they are carrying a lot more local passengers on flights like CVG-BWI/PHL/CLT/ORD/etc. I'd imagine the increased O&D has made up for the lower fares, otherwise those routes probably would have also been cut.

              If CVG was suffering in yields, it wouldn't be the second fastest growing DL hub/focus city (only behind SEA). I have a hard time believing DL is "hurting" in CVG since there are quite a bit of assets they have put into CVG (including expanding the pilot base), that could have been put in a city like BOS or RDU.
               
              digitalcloud
              Posts: 162
              Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:03 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:30 pm

              BOS-DUB will switch from a 757 to 767 in S19.
               
              User avatar
              flymco753
              Posts: 3385
              Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:24 pm

              I think it's safe to say ORH plans are scrubbed?
              ...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
               
              evank516
              Posts: 2138
              Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:42 pm

              flymco753 wrote:
              I think it's safe to say ORH plans are scrubbed?


              Why do you say that?
               
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              flymco753
              Posts: 3385
              Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:57 pm

              evank516 wrote:
              flymco753 wrote:
              I think it's safe to say ORH plans are scrubbed?


              Why do you say that?
              We're nearly 8 months out and they haven't released as much as what aircraft will operate the route. At this point, an aircraft and frequency should at least be concrete.
              ...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
               
              evank516
              Posts: 2138
              Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:06 pm

              flymco753 wrote:
              evank516 wrote:
              flymco753 wrote:
              I think it's safe to say ORH plans are scrubbed?


              Why do you say that?
              We're nearly 8 months out and they haven't released as much as what aircraft will operate the route. At this point, an aircraft and frequency should at least be concrete.


              The announcement indicated that Delta would use the CRJ-200 once a day between DTW and ORH.
               
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              flymco753
              Posts: 3385
              Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:28 pm

              evank516 wrote:
              flymco753 wrote:
              evank516 wrote:

              Why do you say that?
              We're nearly 8 months out and they haven't released as much as what aircraft will operate the route. At this point, an aircraft and frequency should at least be concrete.


              The announcement indicated that Delta would use the CRJ-200 once a day between DTW and ORH.
              I was trying to find it under a Delta news hub source. CRJ sounds a little too small. Maybe they'll surprise with a -700 instead.
              ...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
               
              evank516
              Posts: 2138
              Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:34 pm

              flymco753 wrote:
              evank516 wrote:
              flymco753 wrote:
              We're nearly 8 months out and they haven't released as much as what aircraft will operate the route. At this point, an aircraft and frequency should at least be concrete.


              The announcement indicated that Delta would use the CRJ-200 once a day between DTW and ORH.
              I was trying to find it under a Delta news hub source. CRJ sounds a little too small. Maybe they'll surprise with a -700 instead.


              Not too small at all. Total distance is 588 miles so DL doesn't need a two class RJ, and they use the CRJ on similar routes like DTW-SWF. Don't expect much from this.
               
              cityshuttle
              Posts: 147
              Joined: Mon Jan 02, 2017 3:56 pm

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:12 pm

              digitalcloud wrote:
              W19 timetable suggests GLA and TXL will operate into winter.


              Any update on this ???

              For S19 schedule the flight numbers for JFK-TXL have changed from DL422 / DL222 to DL092 / DL093.

              For W19 no reservations possible at the moment.
               
              digitalcloud
              Posts: 162
              Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:03 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:19 pm

              I believe many flight numbers are changing for Europe in S19. No update for W19.

              Sent from my H8416 using Tapatalk
               
              panamair
              Posts: 4327
              Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:34 pm

              digitalcloud wrote:
              I believe many flight numbers are changing for Europe in S19. No update for W19.


              Mostly the JFK-Europe flight numbers -and they already changed with the start of the W18-19 schedule which started the end of October. JFK flight numbers previously either started with a "4" or "2" (to denote whether the flight was leaving from JFK T4 or T2), but the concept has now been scrubbed and many JFK-Europe flight numbers have reverted back to their previous numbers:

              JFK-MXP from DL418/419 to DL172/173
              JFK-MAD from DL410/210 to DL126/127
              JFK-FRA from DL004/400 to DL106/107
              JFK-BRU from DL042/043 to DL140/141
              JFK-LHR from DL401/001 to DL001/002
              JFK-LHR from DL402/002 to DL003/004
               
              User avatar
              deltacto
              Posts: 473
              Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2009 5:49 pm

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Wed Dec 19, 2018 6:16 pm

              panamair wrote:
              Mostly the JFK-Europe flight numbers -and they already changed with the start of the W18-19 schedule which started the end of October. JFK flight numbers previously either started with a "4" or "2" (to denote whether the flight was leaving from JFK T4 or T2), but the concept has now been scrubbed and many JFK-Europe flight numbers have reverted back to their previous numbers:

              JFK-MXP from DL418/419 to DL172/173
              JFK-MAD from DL410/210 to DL126/127
              JFK-FRA from DL004/400 to DL106/107
              JFK-BRU from DL042/043 to DL140/141
              JFK-LHR from DL401/001 to DL001/002
              JFK-LHR from DL402/002 to DL003/004


              those were DL's flight numbers for ages ... in fact the FRA flight numbers go all the way back to the Pan Am acquisition

              it's great to see these flight numbers return
               
              jplatts
              Posts: 3612
              Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:56 pm

              There are still more nonstop routes that could be added by DL out of its SLC hub such as SLC-BHM, SLC-BIS, SLC-YEG, SLC-FAR, SLC-XNA, SLC-GRR, SLC-JAX, SLC-LIT, SLC-SDF, SLC-MEM, SLC-YUL, SLC-ORF, SLC-YXE, SLC-FSD, and SLC-YYJ.
               
              many321
              Posts: 316
              Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 6:15 am

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:39 pm

              I was trying to book a flight from LAX-SAL for the summer, and it seems they've cut the route, since the last day they're selling tickets is around April 27.
               
              User avatar
              atcsundevil
              Moderator
              Posts: 4246
              Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 12:22 pm

              Re: Delta Air Lines Network Thread - 2018

              Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:53 am

              Please continue in next year's thread.

              viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1411881
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