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diverdave
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:19 pm

Flighty wrote:
I look at this as "Emirates is willing to take 36 A380s if Airbus is willing to sell them at or below cost." For strategic reasons, Airbus would like to keep the pipeline primed. Emirates knows this. So Emirates would have extracted the maximum value from their position as sole prospective customer.


I do wonder how this MOU compares to the unsigned deal left sitting on the table previously at the Dubai airashow.

I doubt we will ever know, but it would be fascinating to know whether this MOU became more or less favorable to EK. It could have become less favorable to EK with Airbus throwing out the threat to close the line.

David
Last edited by diverdave on Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:20 pm

Revelation wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
However it can't be that hard to certify the A380 for winglets as a simple add on?

Apparently the wing twist must be changed too, so it's not being offered as simple add on. Maybe we'll see more about it when the order is firmed.


It was asked during the press conference today. The order is for the current A380, no winglets are involved.
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:21 pm

tigerotor77w wrote:
I really, really wish Boeing could pull off something similar. With any of their current programs. Sheesh.


So 150 77X and 40+60 787s at EK isn't enough for you? :sarcastic:
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PPVLC
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:23 pm

Great news, I'm a big fan of the A380
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speedbored
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:01 pm

scbriml wrote:
tigerotor77w wrote:
I really, really wish Boeing could pull off something similar. With any of their current programs. Sheesh.


So 150 77X and 40+60 787s at EK isn't enough for you? :sarcastic:

Paper and plastic aircraft don't count :duck:
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:24 pm

zeke wrote:
And basically zero was said about the FAL until announced. China basically doesn’t negotiate via the international press, a lot of which is hidden behind the big red firewall.

KarelXWB wrote:
Revelation wrote:
That doesn't change what I wrote. There has been total silence from the Chinese side, not even a "that's interesting" quote in the news.

And?

Apparently, and unlike some European companies, they don't want to discuss business in public. They didn't do so on the A330 outfitting centre, and won't do so on the A380.

For reference, it took more than 12 months to reach an agreement on the A330 cabin outfitting centre.

Thanks to both of you. My expectation was based on the development of Mobile, where a lot was being said in the press before the actual announcement.

KarelXWB wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
However it can't be that hard to certify the A380 for winglets as a simple add on?

Apparently the wing twist must be changed too, so it's not being offered as simple add on. Maybe we'll see more about it when the order is firmed.


It was asked during the press conference today. The order is for the current A380, no winglets are involved.

Very interesting as well. I'll have to look for notes from the press conference, but it seems a "massive upgrade" is not in the cards at this point in time.
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:32 pm

Revelation wrote:
Very interesting as well. I'll have to look for notes from the press conference, but it seems a "massive upgrade" is not in the cards at this point in time.


https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/953937289457127424
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RalXWB
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:42 pm

Now the door to the Neo is open, fantastic news!
 
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:44 pm

I'm guessing the T900 will get the selection for engines, but i'm curious... IF EK were to choose between the T7000 or GEnx or (?), what is the rough cost of certifying a new engine on a type and how extensive is the certification program? Is it so costly/extensive that makes sense to add other small improvements to make most use of the certification/test campaign?
 
Planesmart
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:10 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Small question, might EK be pushing for at least one more PIP? And the most comfortable plane will be here for a good piece longer.

For WB engines, PBTH or equivalent is mandatory, unless you are a Boeing Tier 1, or Airbus equivalent customer. Based on past EK practice, they will be PBTH.

Interesting to see how much pressure Airbus and EK bring to bear on RR, who may be quite ambivalent about the transaction. Except, EK still has some credit in respect to the current tranche of engines being delivered. And there are other future engine model decisions to be made.

Seems more likely RR will bundle a PiP to avoid discounting PBTH, and/or incurring penalty payments for performance erosion. Given most PBTH customer contracts incorporate mandatory PiP acceptance, with automatic increase in fees, and age of engines in service, quite possible RR will make some money on the work.

But who knows, GE may take EA engine 100% in house, though would seem to be a massive distraction.
 
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:17 pm

gunnerman wrote:
Willie Walsh has said that IAG is interested in leasing second-hand A380s for BA and possibly a couple for IB and even one for EI. I interpret his words as follows. "New A380s are ridiculously expensive, so we're happy to get some cheap, second-hand ones. But we'll buy new from Airbus is the price is dropped a lot, and right now Airbus has only one customer."

If IAG consider the current A380 up front purchase price is too high, especially if they opt for EK spec / pricing, no chance of a Boeing 777X order on the horizon.

The EK top up, while production rates are still falling, presents the perfect opportunity to secure a smart deal. JL has a few more final deals to announce?
 
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:51 pm

Wow, although somewhat expected. Very glad to see this. Hope to be able to fly more A380s in the future!

There's only one thing though that I want to say:

Come on AY, go for it. They'd be cheap now. Please. PLEASE. TAKE THEM! ORDER 10!

(This armchair CEO definitely would go big and order more planes for Finnair.)
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:00 pm

Excellent news, and just as expected - although delayed a little bit.

Quite a few forum members eating crow today.

Long live the A380!
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:04 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Very interesting as well. I'll have to look for notes from the press conference, but it seems a "massive upgrade" is not in the cards at this point in time.


https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/953937289457127424


So after $25bn spent, this is what counts for good news for the A380: assurance of (slightly) loss-making production of 6/year for another decade, not even the ability to amortize a relatively small investment in winglets and cabin modifications.

I don't want to minimize the delight of A380 fans that the whale will limp on, but some of the triumphalism in this thread needs to be placed into context.

Here's to hoping this means Airbus has a bridge to, and the stomach for, a real effort in this sector next decade. This certainly means no clean-sheet Airbus VLA before 2040; hopefully we'll at least get a new wing in my lifetime.
 
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:11 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
Here's to hoping this means Airbus has a bridge to, and the stomach for, a real effort in this sector next decade. This certainly means no clean-sheet Airbus VLA before 2040; hopefully we'll at least get a new wing in my lifetime.


I wouldn't bet on "real effort" next decade. It's pretty clear that Boeing and Airbus will focus on the middle of the market between 2020 and 2030. Any serious VLA changes may come after that.
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NichCage
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:19 pm

What is the long term plan for the A380 at EK? Replace older A380 models now with new ones, and order new A380's in the future to replace the entire fleet? Or will the new generation aircraft EK orders replace the A380 in the long term?
 
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:39 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
but some of the triumphalism in this thread needs to be placed into context.


Not triumphalism, but more people are incredulous that so many commenters reckoned the aircraft was 100% dead and buried, yet it continues on.

It was always pretty clear there would be further orders, the A380 is fairly key to Emirates. The ones I've been on have nearly always been full. I can't see that replacing one A380 with smaller planes would be a better solution in that respect. I wouldn't be surprised if a few more airlines put in orders.
 
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:02 pm

Flighty wrote:
I look at this as "Emirates is willing to take 36 A380s if Airbus is willing to sell them at or below cost." For strategic reasons, Airbus would like to keep the pipeline primed. Emirates knows this. So Emirates would have extracted the maximum value from their position as sole prospective customer.


Bingo. I think this is a reason why the deal soured at the Dubai Airshow. EK wanted more incentives and a drop in the price. Airbus balked and then threatened to shut the line down. Cooler heads prevailed and EK probably got a very good deal for 20 new whales. Airbus gets to keep the line moving and wait for demand and market to turn around in favor of VLA. In the meantime, this also gives plenty of time for a NEO to possibly evolve that will be even more attractive to the likes of EK and others. It also makes John Leahy look like a champ on his way out the door. For the last two years he has been promising more A380 sales. He finally did it.
Last edited by piedmontf284000 on Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:07 pm

cpd wrote:
... but more people are incredulous that so many commenters reckoned the aircraft was 100% dead and buried, yet it continues on.


68 firm backlog, 61 from one airline. That is hardly three-year healthy production run, so spare me for not saying long live VLA.

No one knows where EK's growth is going to come from
Almost every country is trying to curtail ME3 growth.
Load factors are not impressive.
VLA economics are not proven.
ULH economics are not proven.
ROI on airport code F infrastructure is not proven.
There is a huge chasm between brochure CASM and reality.
No idea who is ready to finance these planes.
No secondary market

Each individual EK order may make sense, collectively 276 orders of three WB types is BS. Something has to give. Time will tell which one.
 
Arion640
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:17 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Very interesting as well. I'll have to look for notes from the press conference, but it seems a "massive upgrade" is not in the cards at this point in time.


https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/953937289457127424


So after $25bn spent, this is what counts for good news for the A380: assurance of (slightly) loss-making production of 6/year for another decade, not even the ability to amortize a relatively small investment in winglets and cabin modifications.

I don't want to minimize the delight of A380 fans that the whale will limp on, but some of the triumphalism in this thread needs to be placed into context.

Here's to hoping this means Airbus has a bridge to, and the stomach for, a real effort in this sector next decade. This certainly means no clean-sheet Airbus VLA before 2040; hopefully we'll at least get a new wing in my lifetime.


Ahh i was awaiting your comments.

Whats your definition that a VLA should be? I've never understood how someone can have so much hate for an airliner.
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mjoelnir
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:18 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Very interesting as well. I'll have to look for notes from the press conference, but it seems a "massive upgrade" is not in the cards at this point in time.


https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/953937289457127424


So after $25bn spent, this is what counts for good news for the A380: assurance of (slightly) loss-making production of 6/year for another decade, not even the ability to amortize a relatively small investment in winglets and cabin modifications.

I don't want to minimize the delight of A380 fans that the whale will limp on, but some of the triumphalism in this thread needs to be placed into context.

Here's to hoping this means Airbus has a bridge to, and the stomach for, a real effort in this sector next decade. This certainly means no clean-sheet Airbus VLA before 2040; hopefully we'll at least get a new wing in my lifetime.


And perhaps the gloom and doom needs to be in placed context. It is difficult for A380 haters to be robbed of the impending death of the A380. The 25 billion spent, have been written off a while ago. As per definition of sunk cost, they should not have any influence on today's decisions.
 
Arion640
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:20 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
cpd wrote:
... but more people are incredulous that so many commenters reckoned the aircraft was 100% dead and buried, yet it continues on.


68 firm backlog, 61 from one airline. That is hardly three-year healthy production run, so spare me for not saying long live VLA.

No one knows where EK's growth is going to come from
Almost every country is trying to curtail ME3 growth.
Load factors are not impressive.
VLA economics are not proven.
ULH economics are not proven.
ROI on airport code F infrastructure is not proven.
There is a huge chasm between brochure CASM and reality.
No idea who is ready to finance these planes.
No secondary market

Each individual EK order may make sense, collectively 276 orders of three WB types is BS. Something has to give. Time will tell which one.


Every country is trying to curtail ME3 growth, really? Europe and Australia seem pretty content, along with pretty much all the other countries in the world.

A few countries do indeed restrict bi latrels, but the only ones really throwing their toys out the pram are the US3 CEO's and Senators from Georgia.
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DWC
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:30 pm

tigerotor77w wrote:
I'll admit, I cursed out loud when I saw this today out of frustration that Boeing hasn't managed a similar coup in, what, a decade? I see this order as Boeing's loss, and I'm impressed that Airbus pulled it off but not at all surprised.

I really, really wish Boeing could pull off something similar. With any of their current programs. Sheesh.

You must be a fanboy & not thinking clearly :
BOEING just sold 40 (+60) 787s to EK, 225 737s to FlyDubai, plus the emblematic 150 777Xs... I don't know of any OEM or major airline for that matter pulling that in just a few years... What else would you want for Boeing to "pull off something similar" ? ;)
 
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speedbored
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:47 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
No one knows where EK's growth is going to come from

EK need these frames just to stay as they are. They will need even more to grow. And they will continue to grow once they have DWC.

dtw2hyd wrote:
Almost every country is trying to curtail ME3 growth.

Can you name one country apart from the USA that is actually doing anything at all to curtail EK's growth. And I don't mean countries that impose limits on all foreign airlines.

dtw2hyd wrote:
Load factors are not impressive.

EK's load factors are significantly better than industry average.

dtw2hyd wrote:
VLA economics are not proven.

They certainly are at EK - they are a comfortably profitable airline and Tim Clark is on the record saying that his A380s are his most profitable frames.

dtw2hyd wrote:
ULH economics are not proven.

Yes they are - there are a number of ULH routes that are flown by A380s - if the economics aren't working out then perhaps you could explain why the airlines operating those routes have not downsized to smaller aircraft.

dtw2hyd wrote:
ROI on airport code F infrastructure is not proven.

Many privately owned airports around the world have gone ahead and invested in such changes - why would they have done this unless they had determined that they would get a return on that investment? Even publicly owned airports that have made the changes will, in most cases, have also done the ROI analysis.

dtw2hyd wrote:
There is a huge chasm between brochure CASM and reality.

No, there is not. There are almost always significant differences between the seating density assumptions used for "brochure CASM" and real-world seating but this is true for all aircraft types. In any case, no airline purchases aircraft based on the "brochure" specifications.

dtw2hyd wrote:
No idea who is ready to finance these planes.

EK already have finance in-place for all of their aircraft on firm order, all of it sourced on the open market. There is absolutely no reason to suspect that they will have any difficulty whatsoever in obtaining finance for these additional frames. Contrary to what many people claim here, most finance companies are not shying away from financing A380s, and rates are not significantly different from those for other types.

dtw2hyd wrote:
No secondary market

No secondary frames available to create a market yet. Not rocket science.

dtw2hyd wrote:
Each individual EK order may make sense, collectively 276 orders of three WB types is BS. Something has to give. Time will tell which one.

You should study the EK business model. It really is very clever.
 
marcelh
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:52 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
cpd wrote:
... but more people are incredulous that so many commenters reckoned the aircraft was 100% dead and buried, yet it continues on.


68 firm backlog, 61 from one airline. That is hardly three-year healthy production run, so spare me for not saying long live VLA.

No one knows where EK's growth is going to come from
Almost every country is trying to curtail ME3 growth.
Load factors are not impressive.
VLA economics are not proven.
ULH economics are not proven.
ROI on airport code F infrastructure is not proven.
There is a huge chasm between brochure CASM and reality.
No idea who is ready to finance these planes.
No secondary market

Each individual EK order may make sense, collectively 276 orders of three WB types is BS. Something has to give. Time will tell which one.


I think that they have done their homework and didn't buy those A380s just to be friends with the guys in Toulouse. The majority of those 276 planes will be used for replacement of their current fleet.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:03 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Ahh i was awaiting your comments.

Whats your definition that a VLA should be? I've never understood how someone can have so much hate for an airliner.


Hey I won't begrudge anyone their schadenfreude.

I've written quite a bit about what a VLA should be elsewhere. You can google "A380X" or "A380 replacement" to find my threads in TechOps. I won't rehash it all here except to offer this thought experiment:

  • The A380 has ~26ft effective diameter enclosing 38ft of cabin width (for constant sections)
  • The 777 has 20.3ft diameter enclosing 19.25ft of cabin width
  • The A380 has ~35% less fuselage than 777 per pax, say 30% to adjust for fineness ratio
  • Now imagine taking a 777 and removing 30% of its fuselage drag and weight, but somehow retaining the same pax capacity
  • Then imagine running the design process for that lower weight/drag and shrinking your engines, empenage, wing weight

Hopefully you see - and are a little bit stirred by - the efficiency that would result from that imagined design process.

That's EXACTLY what the A380 SHOULD be.
It isn't because Airbus made disastrously stupid strategic decisions.
Those decisions mean that air travel is more expensive and less broadly-distributed than it should be.
We (the human race) had probably one chance in two generations to build a VLA with enormous social benefits, and Airbus screwed it up.

That is why, yes, I hate the A380. For now. But I've written much about how I would become the A380's biggest slobbering fanboy if Airbus were able to give it a new wing or otherwise realize the VLA's potential.
 
Qf648
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:09 pm

Good news. It’s an ugly plane but it’s great to ride in and be a passenger on.

Qf won’t take their extra frames they’ve gone for the twin jet point to point model. This will help them monopolise Australians getting out to see the world.

Which is a pity because a twinjet only qf doesn’t really have as much prestige as say flying on the whale jet. So there may be potential from a marketing or economics view if this gets the neo over the line in 10 years.

Ba will top up have to as the 744’s are getting on.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:14 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
...
Hey I won't begrudge anyone their schadenfreude.
...
Now imagine ...
Then imagine ...
...
That's EXACTLY what the A380 SHOULD be.
...
We (the human race) had probably one chance in two generations to build a VLA with enormous social benefits, and Airbus screwed it up.
...
That is why, yes, I hate the A380...


I am sorry about the off topic, but I can't see the relation with the EK order. Or even with being in touch with reality.
 
727200
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:22 pm

I figured the 'old girl' was dead and all we were waiting for was the funeral. Congrates to Airbus and EK for pulling this off. But having spent some time in sales and marketing, the discount on these birds, which reality is no one wants, had to be enormous. Possibly at cost, with spares and maintenance making up difference? Or possibly not just to keep the line open and people employed. She has no life as a cargo liner, and the resale of these planes is the desert.
 
tigerotor77w
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:22 pm

DWC wrote:
tigerotor77w wrote:
I'll admit, I cursed out loud when I saw this today out of frustration that Boeing hasn't managed a similar coup in, what, a decade? I see this order as Boeing's loss, and I'm impressed that Airbus pulled it off but not at all surprised.

I really, really wish Boeing could pull off something similar. With any of their current programs. Sheesh.

You must be a fanboy & not thinking clearly :
BOEING just sold 40 (+60) 787s to EK, 225 737s to FlyDubai, plus the emblematic 150 777Xs... I don't know of any OEM or major airline for that matter pulling that in just a few years... What else would you want for Boeing to "pull off something similar" ? ;)


I'm not surprised the "fanboy" language came out after my reply. I first admired Boeing since reading about its treatment of the 777 program -- the "working together" mentality arguably helped define my own approach to teamwork. I'm not sure, however, you'll find me to be a typical fanboy. I have a lot of questions about Boeing's path forward, and frankly I don't see exactly where their priorities lie.

The 78K cannibalizes 77E sales despite not quite having the same legs, so Boeing doesn't want to over-engineer it. The 748 risks 77W sales and the bridge to the 77X, so Boeing doesn't want to sell it as aggressively. The 737 is a sixty year-old platform -- kudos to its engineering team for squeezing out every last penny in its airframe while still selling at a 45% market share. But is it the right platform for the next 60 years? Or even the next 20 years? Was the 737 MAX10 going to be developed at all if the A321NEO didn't hit 1000 orders?

And perhaps most relevant to this community: is Boeing designing planes for its passengers or purely for its shareholders? I can't answer whether Boeing's direction is the right one, so I'd like to learn more. What I'm seeing is a company that's settling back into its ways and content with its position in the market rather than one hungry for conquest sales.

scbriml wrote:
tigerotor77w wrote:
I really, really wish Boeing could pull off something similar. With any of their current programs. Sheesh.


So 150 77X and 40+60 787s at EK isn't enough for you? :sarcastic:


In the context of winning orders that would have gone to a competitor, or for saving a line about to be closed? No, not particularly.

EK helped launch the 777X. I've commented on here before that I'm unsure of the market positioning of the 777X, and sales aside I continue to wonder this. EK also helped launch the A380 and turned out to be its savior. Who will be the 777X's? (Will it need one?)

Let's revisit in five years and see where orders stand.

I don't think any recent 787 campaigns have been much of a coup or a surprise. That it's selling in a down market is impressive, but did anyone predict an order was lost, and have an order emerge anyhow?

mat66 wrote:
tigerotor77w wrote:
I'll admit, I cursed out loud when I saw this today out of frustration that Boeing hasn't managed a similar coup in, what, a decade? I see this order as Boeing's loss, and I'm impressed that Airbus pulled it off but not at all surprised.

I really, really wish Boeing could pull off something similar. With any of their current programs. Sheesh.


I would argue that the launch orders for the 777x were an even bigger coup. 150 from EK alone...


Again, EK helped define and launch the 777X. Boeing has a good product in the 77W and has a vested interest in keeping EK on the 777 family. That EK cancelled its A350 orders is perhaps a point, but who knows what the conditions were behind it. That one airline acts in favor of the 777X is not a signal that the 777X is the better modern twin.

For those rolling their eyes -- I think Airbus has a terrific product range right now. The A380 staying alive is huge, and I think it's a plane that was ahead of its time (I agree with the comments about its sales status if the Recession hadn't occurred). EK just breathed life into a project that could very well come into its own in ten years.

Maybe I'll eat my words and Boeing will continue to sell on a hot streak. I chimed in with a certain disappointed tone because I want Boeing to be better, but I'm certainly not downplaying how impressed I am with Airbus' performance in the last ten years. Coming out of a program that could have bankrupted the company twice and continuing to fire off two terrific launches (in the A350 and neo) is admirable to say the least.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 17114
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:34 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Whats your definition that a VLA should be? I've never understood how someone can have so much hate for an airliner.


Or indeed, for some other members to have such hatred for one airline. :sarcastic:

Matt6461 wrote:
It isn't because Airbus made disastrously stupid strategic decisions.
Those decisions mean that air travel is more expensive and less broadly-distributed than it should be.
We (the human race) had probably one chance in two generations to build a VLA with enormous social benefits, and Airbus screwed it up.


Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's all Airbus's fault. Remind me what your role in bettering society is?

dtw2hyd wrote:
68 firm backlog, 61 from one airline. That is hardly three-year healthy production run, so spare me for not saying long live VLA.


You're correct - at the announced six per year, it's ten year's worth of production.

dtw2hyd wrote:
No one knows where EK's growth is going to come from


Yet they manage it year-on-year-on-year. :scratchchin:

dtw2hyd wrote:
Load factors are not impressive.


Above industry averages is not impressive? :rotfl:

dtw2hyd wrote:
VLA economics are not proven.
ULH economics are not proven.


That probably explains why EK's profits are so poor. :sarcastic:

dtw2hyd wrote:
No idea who is ready to finance these planes.


You have no idea. EK has no issue getting finance for its planes. All are lease-financed apart from two. They're really struggling there!
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Planeyguy
Posts: 69
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:40 pm

If Emirates are replacing the A380s with A380s then why did they order the 777x? I really thought that the 777x would replace the A380.Sorry for being ignorant.
 
mat66
Posts: 307
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 1:12 am

Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:41 pm

@tigerotor77w : Great post. A lot of interesting thoughts. Thanks.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:47 pm

Planeyguy wrote:
If Emirates are replacing the A380s with A380s then why did they order the 777x? I really thought that the 777x would replace the A380.Sorry for being ignorant.


No, that was just the fantasy of some people who, for some reason or other, dislike the A380.

The vast majority of EK's 777Xs will replace current 77Ls & 77Ws.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
DDR
Posts: 1557
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:48 pm

Congratulations to Airbus and I am very happy for the employees. Some people say that this isn't a big order, but when you consider the size of the A380, it is still quite an achievement.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7069
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:50 pm

speedbored wrote:
You should study the EK business model. It really is very clever.


You mean, those glossy pdfs with "fact" watermarks??

Unfortunately, those are based on neither IFRS nor GAAP, those are based on CALP(Creative Accounting and Language Parsing) standards).

In case you missed the recent news, the Crown Auditor is banned from certifying financial statements for two years by a third world country.
 
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cpd
Posts: 5924
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:51 pm

scbriml wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Load factors are not impressive.


Above industry averages is not impressive? :rotfl:


Well, I guess all of the EK A380 aircraft I've been on could have taken more people. They could have had people sitting down in the floor in the aisles. Perhaps that would make the load factor impressive enough to satisfy people here.

scbriml wrote:
Or indeed, for some other members to have such hatred for one airline. :sarcastic:


And if the A380 had instead been a Boeing B380 (or the Boeing NLA had been built), it would have had none of this vitriol aimed at it. Even the 747-8i doesn't get this level of hatred directed at it.Emirates wouldn't be buying the plane and using it if it didn't work well for them.
 
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keesje
Posts: 12932
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:03 am

I guess production rate will be around 10 per yr.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Arion640
Posts: 2359
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:03 am

Planeyguy wrote:
If Emirates are replacing the A380s with A380s then why did they order the 777x? I really thought that the 777x would replace the A380.Sorry for being ignorant.


The Business model is run for the A380. The 777 and (later) the 787 are just the supplementary aircraft. Emirates will try and cover as many routes as possible with the A380.

People fly Emirates for the A380. Certainly the case here in the UK. Marketing power is huge. The A380 stands out and people talk about it. I've known people fly to Dubai partly to try out Emirates and the A380.

No disrepect to anybody on this forum, but I've repeated the above many times but not many seem to understand.
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tropical
Posts: 91
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2008 2:04 pm

Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:13 am

DDR wrote:
Congratulations to Airbus and I am very happy for the employees. Some people say that this isn't a big order, but when you consider the size of the A380, it is still quite an achievement.

I think the implications of the order are what makes it significant: a vote of confidence in the programme; a signal that Emirates is likely to replace older A380s with new ones; an opportunity to to keep the programme running for a number of years and wait to see if there is a case for an NEO/ Plus model.

The order might come to being a footnote in the history of an aircraft that never really cracked it. But then it could be a timely shot in the arm that carried the programme through into the time when the conditions finally aligned to allow a magnificent aircraft to flourish.
 
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Slug71
Posts: 1377
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:18 am

Arion640 wrote:
People fly Emirates for the A380. Certainly the case here in the UK. Marketing power is huge. The A380 stands out and people talk about it. I've known people fly to Dubai partly to try out Emirates and the A380.

No disrepect to anybody on this forum, but I've repeated the above many times but not many seem to understand.


I agree. My brother-in-law and his family will only fly EK and the A380 (unless they obviously can't). They're in NZ. When they lived in Australia a short time ago, they'd still only fly the A380/EK to Auckland and back.
 
Arion640
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:27 am

Slug71 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
People fly Emirates for the A380. Certainly the case here in the UK. Marketing power is huge. The A380 stands out and people talk about it. I've known people fly to Dubai partly to try out Emirates and the A380.

No disrepect to anybody on this forum, but I've repeated the above many times but not many seem to understand.


I agree. My brother-in-law and his family will only fly EK and the A380 (unless they obviously can't). They're in NZ. When they lived in Australia a short time ago, they'd still only fly the A380/EK to Auckland and back.


I'm guilty of it myself, I paid about £60 more to fly EK over the Tasman! Didn't see a single spare seat on AKL-SYD.
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Brexit - It’s time for global Britain.
 
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reidar76
Posts: 445
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:28 am

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Given 41 (?) yet to be delivered from EK's firm order backlog. plus another 20 firm from this MoU, that's 61, which at 6 a year is 10 years' production from now. Throw in a few top up orders, and we will see A380 production to 2030 at least.


Great news for EK, Airbus and the A380. Counting only firm orders from Emirates, ANA, Qatar and Singapore airlines + this new MoU order for 20 aircraft, production of the A380 is secured until the end of 2028. If the 16 options are converted to orders, production is secured past 2030. Production for 2018 will be at 12 aircraft, then 8 aircraft in 2019, before reaching 6 aircraft per year in 2020.

Let's compare the timeline to the A330 and 777:

A330
- Entered into service in 1994
- After 20 years in service the neo-program is launched (new engines, wing extension etc.)
- A330neo in service in 2018 (24 years after first A330ceo)

777
- Entered into service in 1995
- 18 years later the 777x program is launched (new engines, stretch, re-wing etc.)
- 777x in service in 2020 (estimated), 25 years after first 777 in service

A380
- Entered into service in 2007
- With production secured to at least 2028 (or 2030), that's 21 years (or 23 years) after first aircraft was put in service. By that time the A380 will be old. It is not like the A330 and 777 programs stood still from first in service to launch of the neo and the x programs respectively.

I think it is unlikely that the A380 will get any more orders apart from this "final" order from EK. With this order Airbus has enough orders for maintaining production until the RR ultrafan is ready and then also do a possible re-wing of the A380 (new CFRP wing).
Last edited by reidar76 on Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:38 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Slug71
Posts: 1377
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:08 am

Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:45 am

I think this order may even be cushion enough to keep production at 8 per year. I think if a NEO is going to happen, the announcement will be around 2022-2025. That will also be late enough into the Ultrafan's development cycle to begin a variant for the A380.

Arion640 wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
People fly Emirates for the A380. Certainly the case here in the UK. Marketing power is huge. The A380 stands out and people talk about it. I've known people fly to Dubai partly to try out Emirates and the A380.

No disrepect to anybody on this forum, but I've repeated the above many times but not many seem to understand.


I agree. My brother-in-law and his family will only fly EK and the A380 (unless they obviously can't). They're in NZ. When they lived in Australia a short time ago, they'd still only fly the A380/EK to Auckland and back.


I'm guilty of it myself, I paid about £60 more to fly EK over the Tasman! Didn't see a single spare seat on AKL-SYD.


Same. Except i'm just happy to fly on a 747 or 380(any airline). But I do prefer the A380.
 
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jetliners
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 12:59 am

Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:01 am

So happy to hear that, I know it isn't healthy for the A380 program to rely on only one customer, but it is good to see this beloved jet is not going to go sooner.
 
peterinlisbon
Posts: 1439
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 3:37 am

Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:29 am

It looks like Airbus made a bad bet with the A380, but had a lucky escape because Emirates essentially rescued them from the abyss. Now thanks to EK the program has a chance to survive a bit longer, hopefully long enough to get some orders from other airlines.
 
Qf648
Posts: 51
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:49 pm

Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:04 am

Arion640 wrote:
Planeyguy wrote:
If Emirates are replacing the A380s with A380s then why did they order the 777x? I really thought that the 777x would replace the A380.Sorry for being ignorant.


The Business model is run for the A380. The 777 and (later) the 787 are just the supplementary aircraft. Emirates will try and cover as many routes as possible with the A380.

People fly Emirates for the A380. Certainly the case here in the UK. Marketing power is huge. The A380 stands out and people talk about it. I've known people fly to Dubai partly to try out Emirates and the A380.

No disrepect to anybody on this forum, but I've repeated the above many times but not many seem to understand.


This is think is the risk with the qantas 777 and 787 p2p strategy. It looses the premium of the A380, a USP people are aware of. And if it means that if people want it they can fly emirates, realistically they have the capability of filling it and being price competitive with it.

Id also like to think that the EA motors will end up on this order somehow. That QF and EK are critical of the T900 maintenance I think plays a big part in QF's love for the whale jet.
 
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Slug71
Posts: 1377
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:08 am

Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:13 am

peterinlisbon wrote:
It looks like Airbus made a bad bet with the A380, but had a lucky escape because Emirates essentially rescued them from the abyss. Now thanks to EK the program has a chance to survive a bit longer, hopefully long enough to get some orders from other airlines.


It wasn't a bad bet. There is no way Airbus could have predicted the crash of the global economy at the time of design. And when the warning signs began to appear, it would have been far too late for Airbus to back out.

Qf648 wrote:
Id also like to think that the EA motors will end up on this order somehow. That QF and EK are critical of the T900 maintenance I think plays a big part in QF's love for the whale jet.


The EA engine goes out of production this year.
 
2175301
Posts: 1418
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:41 am

Congratulations to Airbus on this. It secures production for likely another 6 years, and leaves the options open for the future.

Congratulations to Emirates. It allows them to maintain a "prestige" class and service to some destinations for many years into the future.

I wish them both well...

Have a great day,
 
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N14AZ
Posts: 3732
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:19 pm

Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:00 am

So once this MoU will be confirmed there will be a total number of 337 firm orders, provided Airbus doesn’t use the opportunity to cancel some firm orders (they did it before...).

Airbus is getting closer to the total number of firm orders for the A340.

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