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RickNRoll
Posts: 1869
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:58 am

bikerthai wrote:
GE90man wrote:
Yes! Great news! Hope to see more A380s in other colors in the near future


Don't get your hope up too high. While limited to the trans-Pacific flights, this study shows the draw backs of the 747 and A380.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-17/q ... dy/9333616

The A380 fits Emirates as they only fly from one hub. China has many cities in which their airlines can establish secondary hubs for point-to-point flights. Heck, I just came back from Vietnam and they have 3-4 possible international airports that can accommodate point to point flights.

bt


That is a really stupid story. The old 747 is of course a gas guzzler but QANTAS keep flying it because they find it cheaper than buying something more fuel efficient for now.

The A380 (and the 747 for that matter) would be much more fuel efficient if they crammed in more seats. QANTAS chooses not to.
 
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NeBaNi
Posts: 485
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:24 am

bikerthai wrote:
Don't get your hope up too high. While limited to the trans-Pacific flights, this study shows the draw backs of the 747 and A380.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-17/q ... dy/9333616

This is exactly what I was afraid of with this report - people taking a flawed analysis as gospel. In another thread, I tried to debunk the QF fuel efficiency numbers, which I'll copy/ paste here:
NeBaNi wrote:
Okay, where do I even start? I skimmed through the entire pdf and there are several things that immediately jump out. In order to keep this post from growing into a novel, I'll focus on the low efficiency numbers for Qantas, in particular:
  • First off, Qantas flies the longest routes in the Pacific with the highest MTOW aircraft. So of course QF will get an efficiency penalty. In fact, the longest route in this analysis is SYD-DFW, flown for most of the period in which the data was taken by the 747-400ER and later the A380, both of which go with blocked empty seats, leading to losses as reflected in the lower load factors. QF actually rebutted with this, read what Qantas head of fuel and environment Alan Milne has to say:
    The reason Qantas ranks low in this study is chiefly because we use larger aircraft, fly very long distances and have premium cabins that naturally have fewer people on board
    From: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/qantas-questions-fuel-efficiency-report/
  • Just looking at the A380, AFAIK, none of the Qantas birds have an MTOW of 575t. They are all older birds with 560t. When you model the A380 in Piano 5 like the report did, all of a sudden, your A380 is carrying 15t of phantom weight, and guess where fuel burn goes with that added weight (up!). This can be extended to other carriers as well, apart from the newer SQ birds (none of which were in service for the period this data was collected), literally none of the A380s flying the transpac missions have an MTOW of 575t. This skews the numbers against the A380.
  • Another point about the A380 - the aircraft was modeled on Piano 5 with a seating of 544 pax, when we know all of the carriers have it configured to less passengers than that. More pax = more weight, and of course with more pax weight, you take away from cargo payload available. In really long routes like this, if you model stuff with more passengers, you start eating into your cargo tonnage, because the only other thing you could offload - fuel - is not up for offloading. If you have a load factor of 74% like QF, in the model, it's 74% of 544, not 74% of 484 like QF actually has. Again, you are adding phantom weight of an extra 44 passengers.
  • Like I said earlier, the SYD-DFW route goes out with blocked seats - so not really a fair comparison for the A380 or the 747 that operated the routes. Of course QF numbers will be improved by the 787.
  • Consider the case of SYD-LAX. According to the report, VA and UA have identical fuel efficiencies of 33 pax-km/L. United uses the 787, Virgin Australia the 777-300ER. If you look at the other variables, VA and UA have them almost identical: load factors of 82% vs. 83%, freight share of 23% vs 23%, premium seating share of 18% vs. 18%, and overall seating density of 0.95 seats/m2 vs. 0.91. So, the only meaningful difference here is the aircraft used. And with the comparatively fuel-guzzling 777-300ER, VA still manages to equal UA on fuel efficiency. It's not hard to see something is off with this picture. :banghead:
    To add on to that slightly, the seating capacity of a 777-300ER is modeled in Piano 5 as 396, vs. 290 for the 787-9. Of course this favors the 777-300ER.

TL;DR: The analysis is not a sound one! There are holes that, I, as an amateur, could poke through their argument!

I know it's easy for me to sit here and critique the report, and I think the report is a good thing to start the conversation, but by no means is the report accurate or accounts for all significant factors that affect fuel efficiency on a carrier-by-carrier and aircraft-by-aircraft basis. What I'm afraid of is the countless future threads on A-net that will have posters using the numbers from this report as gospel without doing any critical thinking. And before anyone says this is looking at it from an A380-fanboy point of view, I'd like to point out in the last bullet that it doesn't put the 787 in a good light either! :silly:


Anyways, congrats to EK and Airbus for this order! Hope this gets firmed up before Leahy retires. :champagne:
 
JAAlbert
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:57 am

boerje wrote:

At list prices this is "only" an US$ 16 billion order. :eek:


Is the $16 billion order cover all 36 frames or is that just the 20 confirmed?
 
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TheRedBaron
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:38 am

I am glad this order came through, I will make some second hand A380 a feasible risk for some carriers and maybe another 10 to 15 new orders from customers years from now with PIP progress implemented.... Great news!!!
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
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Balerit
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:13 am

I tend to view the A380 as being 2 aircaft to 1 in size and therefor the total order book could be doubled as compared to say a single Boeing aircraft order - if that makes any sense, :).
Licensed Aircraft Maintenance Engineer (retired).
 
81819
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:28 am

Does anyone see this as being a push become shove order?
 
boerje
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:30 am

JAAlbert wrote:
boerje wrote:

At list prices this is "only" an US$ 16 billion order. :eek:


Is the $16 billion order cover all 36 frames or is that just the 20 confirmed?


Airbus 2018 Price List Press Release

36*445.6=16,041.6
 
Planesmart
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:53 am

RickNRoll wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
GE90man wrote:
Yes! Great news! Hope to see more A380s in other colors in the near future


Don't get your hope up too high. While limited to the trans-Pacific flights, this study shows the draw backs of the 747 and A380.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-17/q ... dy/9333616

The A380 fits Emirates as they only fly from one hub. China has many cities in which their airlines can establish secondary hubs for point-to-point flights. Heck, I just came back from Vietnam and they have 3-4 possible international airports that can accommodate point to point flights.

bt


That is a really stupid story. The old 747 is of course a gas guzzler but QANTAS keep flying it because they find it cheaper than buying something more fuel efficient for now.

The A380 (and the 747 for that matter) would be much more fuel efficient if they crammed in more seats. QANTAS chooses not to.

A one dimensional report, discussing only a single element, in isolation to all others - fuel, and related emissions, though it does provide a wake up call in a post-CORSIA environment.

The report ignores profitability. Higher passenger and freight load factors may actually translate to lower profits, reducing the airlines ability to re-invest in newer, more efficient technology.

Commercial aviation issues in the next five years, aside from the cost of oil (including emissions) and funding, are flight crew, airspace, slots, gates and parking.

Many P2P routes started in the last five years, enjoy inducements such as lower fees, marketing credits and cash inducements. As these expire, and fares have to increase, faster than those via hubs, will we see more or less concentration?
 
parapente
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:57 am

Looking to the future (now that there is one for the aircraft) I note that Rolls Royce began testing their Advance 3 test engine in December.

This engine has the completely new core,an XWB fan and a T1000 back end.It also has fitted (I believe) the new power gearbox (built in Germany) that has already been tested to 70,000 lbs.(a World record).The Carbo-titanium wide chord fan system and shroud is not fitted but has been test flown.Not sure what aircraft.
Now this is only a test engine and not even designed to ever go on a wing (they have said).But one can't help noticing that such an engine is bang slap in the middle of the 789-359 power requirements - which means it's also bang slap in the middle of the A380 power requirements ...They say it could be ready by 2025.Probably a little optimistic-but somewhere between 2025 and 2030 is realistic.
 
XT6Wagon
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:00 am

Not quite sure why people are treating this as an order, its not.

Lets see when the actual contract is signed.
 
marcelh
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:06 am

XT6Wagon wrote:
Not quite sure why people are treating this as an order, its not.

Lets see when the actual contract is signed.

Why shouldn't they sign the contract?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:20 am

XT6Wagon wrote:
Not quite sure why people are treating this as an order, its not.

Lets see when the actual contract is signed.


There's as much chance they won't firm this as there is they won't firm their 787 commitment. None. :wink2:

This sort of thing happens in public for a reason...
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MrBren
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:22 am

marcelh wrote:
Why shouldn't they sign the contract?


There are maybe some discussions to include a batch of A380+.
 
douwd20
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:26 am

The one airline the A380 works for signs up for more. Not a shocker really. The inevitable is just kicked down the road.
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:09 am

dtw2hyd wrote:

Almost every country is trying to curtail ME3 growth.


yeah... I'd say instead that it sucks to be alone fighting a wrong war once again..
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:10 am

And that airline will sign up for still more. A380 will be replaced by A380. The number of A380 in use will still climb from the current 101 to at least 115. That would mean 45 A380 of the current on order frames, including this new 20 frames MOU, would be for replacement.
The ordered 777-8/9 will replace 777-200LR/300ER. 150 777-8/9 on order and 154 777-200LR/300ER to be replaced. The next two years incoming 777-300ER will replace the oldest 777-300ER.

That is my 2 cent.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:18 am

Arion640 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
cpd wrote:
... but more people are incredulous that so many commenters reckoned the aircraft was 100% dead and buried, yet it continues on.


68 firm backlog, 61 from one airline. That is hardly three-year healthy production run, so spare me for not saying long live VLA.

No one knows where EK's growth is going to come from
Almost every country is trying to curtail ME3 growth.
Load factors are not impressive.
VLA economics are not proven.
ULH economics are not proven.
ROI on airport code F infrastructure is not proven.
There is a huge chasm between brochure CASM and reality.
No idea who is ready to finance these planes.
No secondary market

Each individual EK order may make sense, collectively 276 orders of three WB types is BS. Something has to give. Time will tell which one.


Every country is trying to curtail ME3 growth, really? Europe and Australia seem pretty content, along with pretty much all the other countries in the world.

A few countries do indeed restrict bi latrels, but the only ones really throwing their toys out the pram are the US3 CEO's and Senators from Georgia.


A lot of Europe airlines couldn't try to curtail the ME3 even if they wanted to, look at CDG, AMS and particularly LHR, way too full to take really any more connecting traffic...
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY // Upcoming: W6 A320, W6 A321, EVA 77W, VS 787-9m AS A320, VS A35K, KLM E190, KLM 738, LS 737
 
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zkojq
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:20 am

mxaxai wrote:
There are about 30 non-stop flights a day between London and New-York. Impressive but not enough to warrant even one A380.


And yet you can fly an A380 on FRA-EWR and CDG-JFK, no?

dtw2hyd wrote:
Load factors are not impressive.

Source?

dtw2hyd wrote:
ULH economics are not proven.

In case you missed it, EK has been flying ULH routes from Dubai to Australia for more than a decade.

dtw2hyd wrote:
ROI on airport code F infrastructure is not proven.

What routes are unable to be opened due to airports refusing to install the required code F infrastructure?

dtw2hyd wrote:
There is a huge chasm between brochure CASM and reality.

Says who?
First to fly the 787-9
 
workhorse
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:30 am

XT6Wagon wrote:
Not quite sure why people are treating this as an order, its not.

Lets see when the actual contract is signed.


You mean, there's still hope, right? :rotfl:
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:32 am

workhorse wrote:
XT6Wagon wrote:
Not quite sure why people are treating this as an order, its not.

Lets see when the actual contract is signed.


You mean, there's still hope, right? :rotfl:


Actually a few posts before there was someone saying that even after signed, the delivery was unlikely :scratchchin: :rotfl:
 
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flee
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:36 am

douwd20 wrote:
The one airline the A380 works for signs up for more. Not a shocker really. The inevitable is just kicked down the road.

I believe that is what Airbus needs precisely for the market to catch up. By 2025-2030, more and more airports will run out of slots and frequencies cannot be increased. The only way to increase capacity is to use larger aircraft. RIght now, many airlines are abandoning smaller jets like the B737-7 and A319 and upgauging to the B737-9/-10 and A321.

Older wide bodies are also being upgraded to B787-9/-10 and A330-900/A350-1000.

Soon airlines with B77W fleets will need to consider what they wish to upgrade to - 779 or A380. Interesting times are ahead of us.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:44 am

keesje wrote:
I guess production rate will be around 10 per yr.

This is something I have been wondering about since this order was announced. I read a lot about Airbus can now continue the production rate of 6 frames per year for another 6 years. But would Airbus want to do that? IIRC this rate of one aircraft every 2 months was the absolute emergency minimum, but not really desired. What chances are there Airbus will increase production again to 8, 10 or even 12 per year?
N14AZ wrote:
So once this MoU will be confirmed there will be a total number of 337 firm orders, provided Airbus doesn’t use the opportunity to cancel some firm orders (they did it before...).

Well, they could remove the Amedeo 'order' for 20 quietly... Although I doubt they will.
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frigatebird
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:51 am

flee wrote:
douwd20 wrote:
The one airline the A380 works for signs up for more. Not a shocker really. The inevitable is just kicked down the road.

I believe that is what Airbus needs precisely for the market to catch up. By 2025-2030, more and more airports will run out of slots and frequencies cannot be increased. The only way to increase capacity is to use larger aircraft. RIght now, many airlines are abandoning smaller jets like the B737-7 and A319 and upgauging to the B737-9/-10 and A321.

Older wide bodies are also being upgraded to B787-9/-10 and A330-900/A350-1000.

Soon airlines with B77W fleets will need to consider what they wish to upgrade to - 779 or A380. Interesting times are ahead of us.

This.
When I hear people talk about the increase in air traffic and airport constraints, and the result being the A380 is absolutely necessary as a result, don't we forget that larger aircraft are already happening as you describe.
We see DL upgrade 767 to A330-900. KL replace MD11 with 77W, BA replacing A319 with A320, Wizz Air going for the A321, and many many other examples. Will be interesting to see what will happen on the upper side of the spectrum.
146,318/19/20/21, AB6,332,333,343,345,346,359,388, 722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9, 742,74E,744,752,762,763, 772,77E,773,77W,788 AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E75/90,F50/70
 
ltbewr
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:00 pm

The A380 is the only answer for the most packed hub airports like LHR and elsewhere. The 747 is pretty much dying as we speak but Boeing will make more 777's in larger forms that will pretty much replace it for all but where the A380 is the only choice.
I expect Airbus will find ways to cut production costs for the A380. Transferring production of some major components with partners in China and other potential customer countries or to Eastern/Southern EC countries that have much lower labor costs. Tough negotiations with unions in France, Germany, UK (especially after Brexit) and other suppler EC countries to lower pay or not increase with general inflation. Push for more tax breaks where allowed. Increase internal production efficiencies. Airbus has done that in part and we have seen the same with Boeing (especially with the 787 with issues). To me that that is the only way in the long run to keep the A380 program viable and profitable.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:08 pm

Not sure if this was mentioned, but the contract seems to include some industrial compensations, like for Strata Manufacturing, which will then start the supply HTPs (20/month) for A320 planes.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:10 pm

Lack of growth potential
The US, China, and India are some major markets where growth is plateaued or curtailed.
UK market is not growing either, post BREXIT premium market may godown even further. Sending more planes for ID travel is not good for business.
Australia is a wildcard at present. QR using almost all its A380s to one market. QF is venturing out.

Economics
77% seat factor for an airline with 380 Billion ASKMs. 87 Billion ASKMs WASTED every year.. So much for being above the industry average.
EK is not the only airline operating A380 on ULH routes. QF publishes "real" data of its routes. So PR saying "believe us" it is profitable is not going to cut it. Even STC said A380s are well suited for 8hr-9hr flights.

Financing
Someone said all these orders have financing lined up already. AFAIK that's not how aviation financing works. 1% at the time of firm order rest at different phases. Each frame finance structure varies vastly.

So at the moment, this is just a $20M face-saving PR spending, because Airbus didn't budge.
Last edited by dtw2hyd on Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:07 pm

Jayafe wrote:
I am sorry about the off topic, but I can't see the relation with the EK order.

The relationship is that the EK order cements the future of a less than optimal VLA, instead of allowing for an earlier replacement. It's kind of disappointing that the company that is said to always be incrementally improving its products is apparently not doing any improvements for this order.

DDR wrote:
Congratulations to Airbus and I am very happy for the employees. Some people say that this isn't a big order, but when you consider the size of the A380, it is still quite an achievement.

I think it's a big order in every sense of the word, big in terms of money changing hands and big in terms of ensuring the future of the product for several more years.

N14AZ wrote:
So once this MoU will be confirmed there will be a total number of 337 firm orders, provided Airbus doesn’t use the opportunity to cancel some firm orders (they did it before...).

I read that Airbus used the end-of-year bonanza to drop two A380 orders off the books. The article didn't say which ones.

ltbewr wrote:
The A380 is the only answer for the most packed hub airports like LHR and elsewhere. The 747 is pretty much dying as we speak but Boeing will make more 777's in larger forms that will pretty much replace it for all but where the A380 is the only choice.

Uhm, no. If A380 was the only answer, then why is BA replacing 52 747s with 12 A380s and lots of aircraft smaller than 747? Why is Air Canada flying A319s across the Atlantic to LHR? Yes, LHR slots are expensive, but that's largely because a lot of slot squatting is going on. A presence at LHR is important for the legacies but new entrants are doing fine at the other LON airports and other non-LHR hubs are doing fine as well. There's plenty of ways forward that do not involve more A380s at LHR.

ltbewr wrote:
I expect Airbus will find ways to cut production costs for the A380. Transferring production of some major components with partners in China and other potential customer countries or to Eastern/Southern EC countries that have much lower labor costs. Tough negotiations with unions in France, Germany, UK (especially after Brexit) and other suppler EC countries to lower pay or not increase with general inflation. Push for more tax breaks where allowed. Increase internal production efficiencies. Airbus has done that in part and we have seen the same with Boeing (especially with the 787 with issues). To me that that is the only way in the long run to keep the A380 program viable and profitable.

Airbus has said sites like Mobile are not saving money. It should be obvious once you factor in the cost of shipping and the cost for establishing a new site etc. Clearly Airbus is using new sites to establish political footholds and to cement sales agreements. Enders himself said as much in his recent Aviation Week article. Airbus is dangling the finishing line in front of China to try to get orders. New orders allows it to justify offshoring work to its unions.
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WIederling
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:25 pm

Revelation wrote:
New orders allows it to justify offshoring work to its unions.


Every FAL job creates 10 or more jobs in the manufacturing "backoffice". Another dozen+ with outside suppliers. Globally.
( anybody ever done some exact numbers on the distributed work pyramid?)

To expand jobs at home unions would be short sighted to get stingy about non local FAL sites.
( especially Germany is short on ( even willing to be ) qualified workers at the moment. )

Refugees are willing but kept away from the jobs market. ( starts to look like the US and those job taking mexicans to be ejected at all cost.
OK again conservatives ( the semisane to far out on the right ) are the driving force there.

to add ( again ) : it is desirable to not have "super manufacturing sites". It is much cheaper to move (expensive ) product section occasionally than to move workforce over life disrupting distances. VW Wolfsburg draws workforce from a 300+km diameter area. That is up to 3 hours commute each day. Housing cost going through the roof.

Extreme case in a completely different domain: North Frisian island "Sylt" is a sought after holiday and living resort for the well to do.
The workforce required to provide an adequate service environment for the upper crust has to commute from the mainland
because affordable living space on the island is unavailable. The (sole) rail connection is a massive bottleneck. )
Murphy is an optimist
 
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speedbored
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:30 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
speedbored wrote:
You should study the EK business model. It really is very clever.

You mean, those glossy pdfs with "fact" watermarks??
Unfortunately, those are based on neither IFRS nor GAAP, those are based on CALP(Creative Accounting and Language Parsing) standards).
In case you missed the recent news, the Crown Auditor is banned from certifying financial statements for two years by a third world country.

Clearly, you don't even understand the difference between business model and accounts.

You are also wrong about the accounting standards that EK has to adhere to, and who their auditors are (PwC).
https://www.iasplus.com/en/jurisdictions/asia/uae

dtw2hyd wrote:
Someone said all these orders have financing lined up already. AFAIK that's not how aviation financing works. 1% at the time of firm order rest at different phases. Each frame finance structure varies vastly.

Having the finance "lined up" is not at all the same as getting the cash. Do you seriously believe that an airline would enter into a binding contract to purchase $Bns of aircraft without being certain that they had the means to pay for them? Unless the airline has cash on hand to purchase aircraft directly, finance is almost always agreed in principle with the financiers before purchase contracts are signed. Very often, the finance companies are actually parties to the purchase contract.
 
Fiend
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:30 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Lack of growth potential
The US, China, and India are some major markets where growth is plateaued or curtailed.
UK market is not growing either, post BREXIT premium market may godown even further. Sending more planes for ID travel is not good for business.
Australia is a wildcard at present. QR using almost all its A380s to one market. QF is venturing out.
.


UK market not growing???

2012-2013 3.5% increase in total passenger numbers
2013-2014 4.3% increase
2014-2015 5.6% increase
2015-2016 4.2% increase

If that's not growth I don't know what is!!!
BAC 1-11, A300, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380, B737, B747, B757, B777, B787, L1011, Fokker 100, ATR 72, MD83
 
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speedbored
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:35 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
That is why, yes, I hate the A380

Strange, given that you have previously claimed:
Matt6461 (from Etihad Not Interested In A380neo thread) wrote:
I consider myself its biggest fan here actually
 
WIederling
Posts: 9622
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:37 pm

speedbored wrote:
Very often, the finance companies are actually parties to the purchase contract.


To put this FUD in perspective: Did Emirates ever have issues getting financing arranged?
( IMU their model is more centered on buy and lease back, isn't it? )
Murphy is an optimist
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8622
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:55 pm

speedbored wrote:
Clearly, you don't even understand the difference between business model and accounts.

You are also wrong about the accounting standards that EK has to adhere to, and who their auditors are (PwC).
https://www.iasplus.com/en/jurisdictions/asia/uae.


Regulator and accounting standards are the foundation of a valid business model.

No one questions QF/NZ or BA/LH or DL/UA/AA or NH/JL's financial reports.
All posts are just opinions.
 
Egerton
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:04 pm

parapente wrote:
Looking to the future (now that there is one for the aircraft) I note that Rolls Royce began testing their Advance 3 test engine in December.

This engine has the completely new core,an XWB fan and a T1000 back end.It also has fitted (I believe) the new power gearbox (built in Germany) that has already been tested to 70,000 lbs.(a World record).The Carbo-titanium wide chord fan system and shroud is not fitted but has been test flown.Not sure what aircraft.
Now this is only a test engine and not even designed to ever go on a wing (they have said).But one can't help noticing that such an engine is bang slap in the middle of the 789-359 power requirements - which means it's also bang slap in the middle of the A380 power requirements ...They say it could be ready by 2025.Probably a little optimistic-but somewhere between 2025 and 2030 is realistic.


Yes, looking to the future. It seems odd that EK are reportedly re-competing for their new batch of A380s with the same two competitors?

Just possibly, EK have side lined Sir Tim Clark who has in the past stated that RR would be the engine supplier on who ever won the medium range competition between the 787-10 and the A350. Sir Tim appeared to be in charge when EK switched to RR for their previous batch of A380. Sir Tim seems to be headed for retirement, if he has not already submitted his resignation.

So what is the new regime at EK wishing for by re-competing? It is to be hoped that EK understand that a clean deal is all that USA, UK and EU can offer. No naughty behaviour such as has been made public by the current BBC TV "House of Saud - Family at War" series.

So we are left with other possibilities which will assist EK on the engine issues in future? My thought turn to the CTi fan situation with RR.

The RR composite CTi fan first flew in the RR 747 test bed in October 2014.
http://www.rolls-royce.com/media/press- ... -time.aspx

This was followed by the decision to create a CTi technology hub in Bristol, UK.
http://www.rolls-royce.com/media/press- ... istol.aspx

These events suggested the timing of EIS for these new fans is coupled with the timing of the step change towards the Advance-UltraFan which was originally set 2025 EIS. We now know the EIS is not before 2027. I worked this out by reference to the following which does not now appear to work for me:
http://www.rolls-royce.com/innovation/a ... rafan.aspx

Would EK be placated is RR offered the current Trent 900 engine with the new CTi fan? This together with the lighter containment against an un-contained failure the engine could be c 1.5t per engine lighter, so 6t for a set of 4, a substantial gain. This would enable RR to reduce the risk of the UltraFan technology leap, by getting the CTi fan sorted out ahead of time. It would be a low volume project for RR. It may perhaps be made ready well before the UltraFan? A win-win?
Last edited by Egerton on Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:14 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:11 pm

TheRedBaron wrote:
I am glad this order came through, I will make some second hand A380 a feasible risk for some carriers and maybe another 10 to 15 new orders from customers years from now with PIP progress implemented.... Great news!!!


RR has stated there will be no more PIPs for the T900.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:20 pm

Egerton wrote:
Would EK be placated is RR offered the current Trent 900 engine with the new CTi fan?


Or just go with 970B- 84 like other operators. EK has no need of 972B- 84 for its missions and loads. Why unnecessarily imagine higher thrust requirement and send RR on a wild goose chase.
All posts are just opinions.
 
Egerton
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:28 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Egerton wrote:
Would EK be placated is RR offered the current Trent 900 engine with the new CTi fan?


Or just go with 970B- 84 like other operators. EK has no need of 972B- 84 for its missions and loads. Why unnecessarily imagine higher thrust requirement and send RR on a wild goose chase.


For the record, I know that there will be no more PIPs for the T900, I am not offering the suggestion of a PIP.

My suggestion is for a plug compatible CTi fan which will not offer more thrust, which the T900 has in abundance. But it will save weight to benefit EK, and get the technology well proven for the benefit of RR. The T900 is much lighter than either T XWB.

Post Script, I am wrong on the weight saving, it is 1,500 lbs per engine which thinking in metric I assumed was 1.5t. It is nearer 2.5t
Last edited by Egerton on Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:53 pm, edited 4 times in total.
 
bmacleod
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:28 pm

Will these A380s be the new plus version?

I didn't see any mention in the article.....
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:28 pm

douwd20 wrote:
The inevitable is just kicked down the road.
I love it! when any aircraft is ordered the inevitable is kicked down the road. Its like somehow the A380 will be the first ever airframe to cease production at some point, I hate to break it to you but the A350 will also have to meet its maker some day, as will the 787. Thankfully the 40frame emirates order for the 787-10 kicked the inevitable down the road.

My hope is that one day the A380 will get rewinged with something a bit slimmer and higher AR with a lower T/O weight, unlikely I guess.

Fred
Image
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:29 pm

Revelation wrote:
Jayafe wrote:
I am sorry about the off topic, but I can't see the relation with the EK order.

The relationship is that the EK order cements the future of a less than optimal VLA, instead of allowing for an earlier replacement. It's kind of disappointing that the company that is said to always be incrementally improving its products is apparently not doing any improvements for this order.


Who should have designed a new VLA?

Revelation wrote:
DDR wrote:
Congratulations to Airbus and I am very happy for the employees. Some people say that this isn't a big order, but when you consider the size of the A380, it is still quite an achievement.

I think it's a big order in every sense of the word, big in terms of money changing hands and big in terms of ensuring the future of the product for several more years.


It is a smallish order in regards to Emirates, even with the options. I expect further orders coming.

Revelation wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
So once this MoU will be confirmed there will be a total number of 337 firm orders, provided Airbus doesn’t use the opportunity to cancel some firm orders (they did it before...).

I read that Airbus used the end-of-year bonanza to drop two A380 orders off the books. The article didn't say which ones.


I thought the two dropped last year were the two Air France.

Revelation wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
The A380 is the only answer for the most packed hub airports like LHR and elsewhere. The 747 is pretty much dying as we speak but Boeing will make more 777's in larger forms that will pretty much replace it for all but where the A380 is the only choice.

Uhm, no. If A380 was the only answer, then why is BA replacing 52 747s with 12 A380s and lots of aircraft smaller than 747? Why is Air Canada flying A319s across the Atlantic to LHR? Yes, LHR slots are expensive, but that's largely because a lot of slot squatting is going on. A presence at LHR is important for the legacies but new entrants are doing fine at the other LON airports and other non-LHR hubs are doing fine as well. There's plenty of ways forward that do not involve more A380s at LHR.


About 10 % of all passengers in LHR come or leave with a A380. I would say the A380 is already quite well involved.

Revelation wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
I expect Airbus will find ways to cut production costs for the A380. Transferring production of some major components with partners in China and other potential customer countries or to Eastern/Southern EC countries that have much lower labor costs. Tough negotiations with unions in France, Germany, UK (especially after Brexit) and other suppler EC countries to lower pay or not increase with general inflation. Push for more tax breaks where allowed. Increase internal production efficiencies. Airbus has done that in part and we have seen the same with Boeing (especially with the 787 with issues). To me that that is the only way in the long run to keep the A380 program viable and profitable.

Airbus has said sites like Mobile are not saving money. It should be obvious once you factor in the cost of shipping and the cost for establishing a new site etc. Clearly Airbus is using new sites to establish political footholds and to cement sales agreements. Enders himself said as much in his recent Aviation Week article. Airbus is dangling the finishing line in front of China to try to get orders. New orders allows it to justify offshoring work to its unions.


You will not find special contracts with unions regarding the A380, there will be only one labour contract regarding the whole factory both in France and in Germany. There are and will be less personal needed and the personal not needed for the A380 production will or has been moved to other production. One big part in cost reduction is exactly the result of selling mainly to one customer only, cutting down on outfitting cost. The next new version for a new customer will be the first bird for ANA. The many options on the A380 had been the reason for high outfitting cost at Airbus, while producing many versions for different customers.
A site like Mobil does safe money. Airbus has developed the A320 family lines and the Mobile and new line in XFW are the most effective in regards of working hours per frame. Airbus has come a long way in automation of production processes and many things coming new to Boeing now, have been done at Airbus a while ago. Have a look at wing production for example.
Shipping to Mobile and Tianjin is by ship, that means the lowest cost transport available, both places are near to a harbour. Ship sets are assembled in XFW. XFW is already a big production site. It is not so easy to increase the skilled work force. Moving work to Mobile and Tianjin opens up areas with less competition for highly skilled workers.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:36 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Blah, blah, blah...


Your non-stop one man campaign against ME3 and EK in particular is most amusing. I almost admire you for it. Almost.

dtw2hyd wrote:
No one questions QF/NZ or BA/LH or DL/UA/AA or NH/JL's financial reports.


Only airlines that don't like competition or those with a pathological dislike of EK question their audited financial reports.

Revelation wrote:
I read that Airbus used the end-of-year bonanza to drop two A380 orders off the books. The article didn't say which ones.


Your source was incorrect - the two A380 cancellations (Air France swap for additional A350s), was booked in January 2017. So there was certainly no trying to "bury bad news" in the avalanche of year-end orders. :shakehead:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
blrsea
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:36 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Lack of growth potential
The US, China, and India are some major markets where growth is plateaued or curtailed.
UK market is not growing either, post BREXIT premium market may godown even further. Sending more planes for ID travel is not good for business.
Australia is a wildcard at present. QR using almost all its A380s to one market. QF is venturing out.
.



I don't know where you got the info that India's growth has plateaued or curtailed. Please provide some links about growth plateauing out. For growth however, you can go through links below from DGCA which show around 8-9% growth in international traffic, and almost double of that in domestic

http://dgca.nic.in/pub/international/QU ... 202017.pdf


Moody’s sees India’s air traffic growth at 8-10% in two years

India’s blistering pace of air traffic growth will moderate to a healthy 8-10% in the next two years, credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service said. Rising demand for air travel will prompt leading airports in the country to speed up their expansion plans, the agency said in a report.

“We expect air traffic growth to moderate but still remain healthy at 8%-10% annually over the next two years, compared with much lower growth in other countries in the region,” Moody’s Singapore-based analyst Abhishek Tyagi said in a Thursday report. The figure 8-10% applies to combined domestic and international traffic growth.

This compares with 6.3% growth in 2013-14, 12.4% in 2014-15, 17.9% in 2016 and 18.3% in 2016-17. The report did not explain why the agency sees lower growth ahead.

According to data from Directorate General of Civil Aviation, domestic air traffic this year has been growing at about 15% while international traffic growth is at 8-10%.


India climbs to fourth spot in 2016 global air traffic rankings
India air traffic gains momentum as travel season begins

India's domestic airline traffic continued to grow in double-digits in November, buoyed by the onset of the main travel season, even as concerns linger over rising fuel prices and crippling airport infrastructure. The number of passengers flown last month jumped almost 17% on year to 10.5 million, according to government data.
...
Between January and November, domestic airlines have carried about 106 million passengers, up more than 17% from a year earlier, the government data showed.
...
 
marcelh
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:38 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Lack of growth potential
The US, China, and India are some major markets where growth is plateaued or curtailed.
UK market is not growing either, post BREXIT premium market may godown even further. Sending more planes for ID travel is not good for business.
Australia is a wildcard at present. QR using almost all its A380s to one market. QF is venturing out.

Economics
77% seat factor for an airline with 380 Billion ASKMs. 87 Billion ASKMs WASTED every year.. So much for being above the industry average.
EK is not the only airline operating A380 on ULH routes. QF publishes "real" data of its routes. So PR saying "believe us" it is profitable is not going to cut it. Even STC said A380s are well suited for 8hr-9hr flights.

Financing
Someone said all these orders have financing lined up already. AFAIK that's not how aviation financing works. 1% at the time of firm order rest at different phases. Each frame finance structure varies vastly.

So at the moment, this is just a $20M face-saving PR spending, because Airbus didn't budge.


So you are essentially saying that the people who are spending EK money don't understand how to run an airline? :white:
 
parapente
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:41 pm

Doubt you will see any further development on the T900 Edgerton and as above RR have said this (I think it has been pip'd 3 times it's very good for its age.
But considering this new order and slow production rates I can see RR (and Airbus) stating to Emirates that if a new GTF engine of the required thrust is in existence 2027-30 they will hang them on the A380 for certain.(they would anyway as that timing will coincide with replacement orders from other Airlines).

Mind you having learned today that passenger numbers to the UK China and India are static or declining it may be that there will be no need for any aircraft at all by then.I guess everyone will be walking...or being flown by fairies (with ADAH).
 
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BaconButty
Posts: 834
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:47 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Lack of growth potential
The US, China, and India are some major markets where growth is plateaued or curtailed.
UK market is not growing either, post BREXIT premium market may godown even further.


You just come on here and make random stuff up. BAD! It's becoming almost impossible to have a sensible chat on here. Here's the latest (Oct 2017) IATA forecast for the next 20 years.
http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/ ... 24-01.aspx
Down with that sort of thing!
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:54 pm

mat66 wrote:
tigerotor77w wrote:
I'll admit, I cursed out loud when I saw this today out of frustration that Boeing hasn't managed a similar coup in, what, a decade? I see this order as Boeing's loss, and I'm impressed that Airbus pulled it off but not at all surprised.

I really, really wish Boeing could pull off something similar. With any of their current programs. Sheesh.


I would argue that the launch orders for the 777x were an even bigger coup. 150 from EK alone...


Agreed. Other than the 747-8F, Boeing is not going to commit additional engineering to upgrade the 747 line. They have a few projects in the not-too-distance future to occupy the limited Engineering staff.

While the 747-8F is still alive, Boeing have to committed factory space to build the frames. If and when they finally shut down that line, it will open up space for other (more profitable) models. Perhaps they can build the MOM plane there with a secondary line in SC?

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:55 pm

bmacleod wrote:
Will these A380s be the new plus version?

I didn't see any mention in the article.....


Not the Plus version.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1166
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:57 pm

NichCage wrote:
What is the long term plan for the A380 at EK? Replace older A380 models now with new ones, and order new A380's in the future to replace the entire fleet? Or will the new generation aircraft EK orders replace the A380 in the long term?

EK has a policy of replacing its aircraft every 12-15 years. As its first A380 was delivered in 2006, we are about to enter the window of replacement of the earliest A380s. This aircraft is crucial to EK, hence its insistence that Airbus commit to keep it in production for a long time.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8622
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Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:59 pm

Egerton wrote:
My suggestion is for a plug compatible CTi fan which will not offer more thrust, which the T900 has in abundance. But it will save weight to benefit EK, and get the technology well proven for the benefit of RR. The T900 is much lighter than either T XWB.


Is there any benefit for RR? Can RR recover the development cost?

EK should learn to use right planes for right missions. A380 best suits DXB-Europe routes, 6-8hr missions with reasonable premium demand and floor space requirement.

Tim's imagination of moving 800 pax on A380-ULH missions is not happening. Hence the high-maintenance T972B-84 itself is an unnecessary headache for RR, let alone any other option to reduce weight or increase thrust which is not required.
All posts are just opinions.
 
Bricktop
Posts: 1513
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:04 am

Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:00 pm

zkojq wrote:
And yet you can fly an A380 on FRA-EWR and CDG-JFK, no?

No and yes. AF6 is an A388, and in season, AF10 is some days.
LH (and other no airline for that matter) doesn't fly an A388 into EWR. B748 from FRA, A333 from DUS, and A346 from MUC (soon to be the A359, woo hoo!!!!)
At the moment, FRA-JFK is a B748 also, downgauged seasonally from the A388.
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