EK has a policy of replacing its aircraft every 12-15 years. As its first A380 was delivered in 2006, we are about to enter the window of replacement of the earliest A380s. This aircraft is crucial to EK, hence its insistence that Airbus commit to keep it in production for a long time.
Sorry I have to correct you. SIA got it's first A380 in 2007. EK got it's first in 2008. All WWTTs were delivered between 2007 and 2009. So from 2009 + 10-12 years = 2019 - 2021 the secondary A380 market could start.
The MA planes would/could have been the first A380's for the second hand market.
Lets also add the numbers to your 12-15 year replacement cycle.
EK has received 101 A380s. AFAIK they plan to operate up to 150 A380s,
but lets assume 120 will be their total A380 fleet number.
120/12years = 10/year | 120/15years = 8/year.
With 6/year and your replacement cycle their total fleet could reach: 6*12=72 | 6*15=90
For full plane live of 20 | 25
| 30 years EK fleet becomes: 120 | 150
It's the 8 WWTTs Emirates received they will be going to replace in the 2020-2022 period (2008-2009 + 12years).
To me It's also odd; that the press releases state that deliveries will start from 2020.
While Airbus will deliver 12 in 2018 and 8/9 in 2019.
This combined is 20-21, of those 3x ANA, 3x SIA, 1x Qatar & 13-14x EK.
EK's current backlog is 41. Minus the 2018 & 2019 deliveries is 27-28 still to deliver A380 with RR engines while the deliveries of the new order (that's still a MoU) start.
So 47 - 64 could be delivered in another specification from 2020.
Last edited by CFRPwingALbody
on Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:22 pm, edited 6 times in total.