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BrianDromey
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:31 pm

BREECH wrote:
BrianDromey wrote:
This is an aircraft BA sorely needs more of. Look that the schedules, they are spread woefully thin, switching on a regular basis between JNB/MIA/ORD/SFO. It’s a premium heavy aircraft for BA too, 14F/97J/55W, but still has 300+ Y seats, where the 747 has 145 in the 14F/86J/30W configuration. Like EK, BA will be able to use the 77W/350 and 787-10 fleets to complement the A380, particularly where cargo is concerned.

Wait... BA has ALL of those? 777, A350, AND B787!? Talk about fleet commonality! Or do they want the laurels of KLM in the number of aircraft types? :-)

BrianDromey wrote:
IAG are interested, as they have said. They want a bargain though. With EK carrying the cost for keeping the line open IAG may we’ll be able to get a deal. Any additional A380s sold are gravy.

They are mostly interested in avoiding the daily mail writing an "editorial" that will say that this deal is very bad for them because of this and that, and then the entire British population getting sickened on them for "wasting money that could've well been spent elsewhere".


Indeed, the current BA fleet plan is A32x CEO/NEO for short haul, 787(-8,-9 & -10), A350-1000, 777-200ER, 777-300ER, 747 and A380. The plan seem to be to operate smaller numbers of the ideal aircraft on smaller numbers of routes. Certainly some 772 will be refurbished and see the last decade of service at LGW, 3 will be retired and replaced with 77W, apparently.
Mixed fleets don't seem to bother IAG too much, they will operate both engine options on the A32x. IAE at BA & YV, CFM and VY, IB & EI, LEAP and IB & EI, Pratt and BA & VY). Across such a large group and with "power by the hour" contract, it probably matters less.

Why would the Daily Mail stick their oar in? As much as they are not my particular cup of tea, I imagine the DM would be very pleased to scream "British Airways to DOUBLE super jumbo fleet as Britain becomes a great trading nation again"
 
StTim
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:31 pm

airbazar wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
So BA is in the market for additional A380 lift and figured refurbishing is too costly. Add Leahy to the mix who can offer some good deals due to his retirement and both parties may reach an agreement.


StTim wrote:
I think it was the implication that they are allowing him to write bad deals so he can go out in a blaze of glory. I am not sure that is what was meant though.

Read his post again. The the exact word that he used was good. I'm not sure how you manage to turn good into bad.

cledaybuck wrote:
But why would he have the authority to offer better deals because he is retiring?

Because he has a proven record while the new guy still has to prove himself.



I interpreted as good for EK to get them to buy before he departed and hence bad (or poor) for Airbus.
 
Bealine251
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:42 pm

I notice on the website Jethros.org.uk it lists BA's two oldest 747s, G-BNLK and G-BNLP as due to retire by the end of 2017. G-BNLK was due last Nov 17 and G-BNLP in Dec. Both are still in service (LK is operating BA85 to Vancouver just now) As they appear to be holding on to these is it a sign there is a shortage of long haul aircraft and the A380 is definitely needed ASAP
 
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NickolayAv
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:02 pm

mat66 wrote:
As a A380 fan I better check my blood pressure these days ;) I always wondered what to do after all these 747 retire. How many are still in service at this point?

LH might even be in it, too. They even started to move some to MUC.

I think that the A380 will survive for quite some time because as you said 747s are retiring fast and many airlines would prefer the A380 over the 747-8i(which is a shame, it's an amazing plane), but I think that the A380 will also get a fresh breath of life when airlines like BA, LH, QR, who have had success utilizing their limited amount of A380s unlike KE and QF, will start retiring their A380s they will buy more to replace them, because they need them in their fleet.
"If you want to be a millionaire, start with a billion dollars and launch a new airline"-Richard Branson
 
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BaconButty
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:04 pm

PPVRA wrote:
Refurbishing used airplanes is too expensive, so they’re gonna buy new instead? Something amiss here.


One of the mistakes Airbus apparently made was to allow an extremely high degree of customisation, they evidently believed they could manage it. Moving bogs and stuff may not sound a big deal, but someone on here (probably a decade ago) described the issues with it like routing services (white, grey and black water) potentially through structural members. Around the time of BA's original order they reverted to a catalogue system, but it's safe to assume BA got a pass. So it's not hard to believe there are disproportionately high costs refitting an A380, especially for a customer like BA who will want consistent product. It's something that might be coming back to bite Airbus.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:11 pm

As far as the LHR third runway is concerned it is a long way off into the future.. if it ever happens - hence the need for more BA A380’s.
BTW - The ‘short’ runway option is still 3,200 meters (10,500 ft) which is long enough for most big aircraft. But there are still massive hurdles to overcome, re-routing part of one of Europes busiest road, and knocking down Willie Walsh’s office which he ain’t too happy about.

Possible that the IAG A380 order may include Iberia and even Aer Lingus.. not sure that Dublin is A380 capable yet.

Funny how last week the A380 was dead and buried..
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:23 pm

Bricktop wrote:
airbazar wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
But why would he have the authority to offer better deals because he is retiring?

Because he has a proven record while the new guy still has to prove himself.

Correct. Can you imagine Enders or Bregier saying "Sorry, John you can't sell them for that"? His successor doesn't have anything close to that clout yet.
That poor guy has real big shoes to fill. He'd better be Steve Young to Joe Montana, and we know that scenario is very rare. (American football reference).
So the new guy comes in a prices at Airbus are going to go up because he doesn't have the authority to offer better prices? I am highly skeptical, but if so it sounds like he is set up for failure.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
Bald1983
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:35 pm

flyingphil wrote:
As far as the LHR third runway is concerned it is a long way off into the future.. if it ever happens - hence the need for more BA A380’s.
BTW - The ‘short’ runway option is still 3,200 meters (10,500 ft) which is long enough for most big aircraft. But there are still massive hurdles to overcome, re-routing part of one of Europes busiest road, and knocking down Willie Walsh’s office which he ain’t too happy about.

Possible that the IAG A380 order may include Iberia and even Aer Lingus.. not sure that Dublin is A380 capable yet.

Funny how last week the A380 was dead and buried..
believe if Britain does not enlarge either LHR of LGW, with an extra runway, Britain will lag in aviation and other large European cities will become the main hubs.
 
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speedbored
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:42 pm

airbazar wrote:
The the exact word that he used was good. I'm not sure how you manage to turn good into bad

By looking at it from Airbus's perspective, perhaps?
 
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VCEflyboy
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:46 pm

Great news! It made the day. If there’s an airline needing the a380 badly it’s BA. LHR is badly constrained and their 748s are on the way out. If not the largest BA is there among the top 747 operators worldwide. Also I hope Air China or Hainan might consider the a380 now that part of the assembly will be made in china. They could easily fill it to the brink on some domestic routes and some trunk routes where they have no competition from other Chinese airlines. Mind you it’s time for air china to look at their fleet. Their fleet is getting old.
 
Mortyman
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:02 pm

Would KLM ever consider the Airbus 380 ? I know they have not seen it as an option in the past, but still ... Would look cool in blue ...
 
FlyingColours
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:19 pm

That's great news if it goes ahead, I really think BA could use more A380s (and even though as much when sat in work this afternoon planning my next trip & contemplating a ride on the big bird).

With regards to their other deliveries of A350s and 787s perhaps their intention is to shunt some 777s over to Gatwick and maybe, just maybe try and start using them from the "provinces" or is that just my Mancunian self getting all worked up again ;)

God help those poor sods stuck flying on G-BNLK & LP, I had the "pleasure" of flying G-BNLF 2 years ago when it was held together mainly with gaffer tape (I'm not kidding, the ceiling panels in several bathrooms were hanging down among other issues) though it was hardly the plane's fault as it had been retired twice by that point and I was actually rather happy to get the oldest one of the fleet in my book while I still could...

As for Simon Calder, the guy makes my piss boil, the fact the press wheel him out at every opportunity to talk about aviation is insulting to all of those who work in the industry. I swore after the stuff he said about my airline as it was collapsing I'd "lamp the bar-steward" if I ever saw him...

Phil
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Geoff1947
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:23 pm

sassiciai wrote:
BAorNoWay wrote:
From memory I believe the original BA A380 order was for 12 plus 7 options. Could it be that IAG will just exercise these purchase options?

I think IAG is cautious about ordering too many A380’s because flying four engine aircraft during recessions can be immensely costly. Having a larger twin engined fleet is not only more cost efficient but easier to utilise across the widest destinations in the route network. Remember, there aren’t many airports around the world that are A380 ready. BA could easily utilise 24 aircraft in my opinion so I wouldn’t be surprised if they exercise the outstanding options and then add an additional 6.

Remember, Heathrow will expand in the next decade with an additional runway. Even if the airport goes for the shorter third runway option, this will free up capacity on the two existing full length runways. This will enable BA to expand frequencies (key for business travellers) by utilising long haul twin aircraft. For business travellers, frequency is more important that aircraft type, and the A350 and 787 are brilliant aircraft.

I have to step in and bring a fresh breeze of reality to your contribution.

You write as if LHR is already building a third runway, and that LHR has the sole responsibility to decide if it has the longer or shorter version (your words)

LHR has 2 runways - that's all! It might like to have 3, or 4, or 5, or .................. That is not anything "LHR" can decide. Even after all the successive and accepted recommendations for a third runway at LHR, it has still not been approved, and is maybe not even on the current government's agenda for possible approval

Even when approved, UK PLC will take for-ever to build it, and it will be 10 times over budget before it is completed!

BA would be crazy to make any corporate plans that assumed a third runway at LHR, rather it should plan on the status quo, and order aircraft accordingly


Also BA is unenthusiastic about the 3rd runway as it increases costs and provides capacity for competitors.

Geoff
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:28 pm

I never attached much likelyhood to the used A380s idea, unlike many others here. Just tactics to get the price down. BA never bought used WB's as far as I know. Replacing 50 747s with 12 A380s and a bunch of twins.. equally unlikely. BA replacing a 747 by a 777 fro LHR means cutting capacity from a slot restricted hub. Folks knee jerking "frequency" probably never worked in the industry.

Image
Last edited by keesje on Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
jfk777
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:30 pm

I would bet BA and IAG buy some A380 because Willie sees the "deal" Emirates got and Leahy would love a repeat order as he drives his Golf Cart to Florida or the Bahamas. ITs a win win win situation even for Rolls Royce, you didn't think BA would order EA powered A380's right ?
 
777PHX
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:38 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
Polot wrote:
BREECH wrote:
May I ask you to elaborate on those bold words?

Leahy is retiring this year. This is pretty well known. Airbus has already announced his replacement.
But why would he have the authority to offer better deals because he is retiring?


If there was any truth to that, Airbus would be facing a lawsuit from its shareholders filed first thing Monday morning. Airbus isn't going to let him make unfavorable deals because he's retiring, that's nonsense.
 
Arion640
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:44 pm

keesje wrote:
I never attached much likelyhood to the used A380s idea, unlike many others here. Just tactics to get the price down. BA never bought used WB's as far as I know. Replacing 50 747s with 12 A380s and a bunch of twins.. equally unlikely. BA replacing a 747 by a 777 fro LHR means cutting capacity from a slot restricted hub. Folks knee jerking "frequency" probably never worked in the industry.

Image


Generally they haven’t . May change if they get 3 77Ws from TAM.

This is a different BA to what we have seen before however. But they’d still set the bar quite high for second hand aircraft. Only potential A380s i would say they’d buy is the MH fleet.

Or Airbus can make them pay a good price for the A380 and then discount future A320neo orders....
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:22 pm

readytotaxi wrote:
BA have 12 aircraft, do they need 12 more, or less?

I can certainly see (and like to see) them making good use of 12 extra A380s although I personally doubt they would order that many......

Michael
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:49 am

We just shouldn't ignore BA operate 48 VLA's today for a reason, with 77W's available already for many years.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
airzona11
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:55 am

keesje wrote:
We just shouldn't ignore BA operate 48 VLA's today for a reason, with 77W's available already for many years.


They have not used the A388 to replace the 747s. They don't have plans for A380 on NYC route (their busiest). A380 too big for that. A350s/787s are replacing those.
 
DWC
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:27 am

FlyingColours wrote:
As for Simon Calder, the guy makes my piss boil, the fact the press wheel him out at every opportunity to talk about aviation is insulting to all of those who work in the industry. I swore after the stuff he said about my airline as it was collapsing I'd "lamp the bar-steward" if I ever saw him...

"Simon Calder's career in travel started at Gatwick Airport, where he cleaned aircraft for Laker Airways and later worked as a security officer." http://www.independent.co.uk/author/simon-calder


airzona11 wrote:
They don't have plans for A380 on NYC route (their busiest). A380 too big for that. A350s/787s are replacing those.

The A388 ain't too big for their LHR-JFK market.
A-netters here have repeated how BA's JFK Terminal just cannot accommodate the whale, nuance... ;)


keesje wrote:
We just shouldn't ignore BA operate 48 VLA's today for a reason, with 77W's available already for many years.

I never attached much likelyhood to the used A380s idea, unlike many others here. Just tactics to get the price down. BA never bought used WB's as far as I know. Replacing 50 747s with 12 A380s and a bunch of twins.. equally unlikely. BA replacing a 747 by a 777 fro LHR means cutting capacity from a slot restricted hub. Folks knee jerking "frequency" probably never worked in the industry.

Image

My money is on your assessment.
To add some spice to the topic, even if they are no aeronautics specialists, "Le Monde" ( France's most respected newspaper ) now openly talks of Neo-ing it or just plussing it :

"After long refusing to put in more money, Airbus would now be ready to, on condition there be enough orders to warrant 2 billion euros investment" ( Après avoir longtemps refusé de mettre à nouveau la main à la poche, Airbus y serait maintenant prêt à condition d’avoir un nombre suffisant de commandes pour justifier un investissement supplémentaire d’environ 2 milliards d’euros ).
http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/ ... _3234.html

With that standard caveat, no news really. But the change of tune in the media is new :
positive thinking, which may or may not be based on Airbus intelligence ( China ordering too ? ).
Last edited by DWC on Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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anfromme
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:38 am

airzona11 wrote:
keesje wrote:
We just shouldn't ignore BA operate 48 VLA's today for a reason, with 77W's available already for many years.


They have not used the A388 to replace the 747s. They don't have plans for A380 on NYC route (their busiest). A380 too big for that.

It seems BA are doing an analysis of where for them frequency wins over capacity per flight with regard to revenue potential. While NYC so far doesn't get the A380 treatment, nearby(-ish) Boston does.
Look at it another way - a busy route with good load factors and yield (like LHR-NYC) is probably a better candidate to deploy those not-quite-so-efficient-anymore 747s on (because you can make up for the higher operating costs) than some lower yield long haul sectors.
Would make sense to me, anyway (Spoken in true armchair CEO fashion ;-) ).

On the whole, they haven't really used any type (or combination thereof) to fully replace their 747s, seeing as they still operate 36 747-400. The 21 retired so far have certainly been replaced by a combination of 12 A380s and 12 777-300ER. They also have 18 A350-1000 on order, but that number still leaves 18 747 replacements unaccounted for (assuming a 1:1 replacement 744 for A3510).
It's pretty fair to assume that more A3510 or A380 will be needed - most likely a combination thereof.
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NichCage
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:43 am

Another A380 order would for sure keep production around for a little bit longer.

But still, besides EK no airline needs or wants the A380 as much as they do. There basically keeping A380 production alive.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:44 am

airzona11 wrote:
keesje wrote:
We just shouldn't ignore BA operate 48 VLA's today for a reason, with 77W's available already for many years.


They have not used the A388 to replace the 747s. They don't have plans for A380 on NYC route (their busiest). A380 too big for that. A350s/787s are replacing those.


? Of course the A380 replaces 747s. For BA e.g. on LHR-LAX. But also on Chicago, Hong Kong, Johannesburg, San Francisco and Singapore.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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anfromme
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:51 am

NichCage wrote:
Another A380 order would for sure keep production around for a little bit longer.

But still, besides EK no airline needs or wants the A380 as much as they do. There basically keeping A380 production alive.

Sure, without EK, the programme would be dead.
That said, with enough EK orders to guarantee production for the next ~10 years, it's going to be a slightly easier sell to other airlines who wouldn't want to end up needing and ordering 5 for delivery in 2022, just to see production end in 2023. I know I'd ask "Hey, so if we buy 5 now, with the last delivered in 2020, what if we want a few more in 2025?" Thanks to EK, the answer is now no longer "We don't even know whether we'll be making the plane any more in 2025."
This isn't going to bring in a few dozen additional orders overnight - but I do think it's no coincidence that, with the EK order (and thus continuation of the programme) secured, news now emerges about IAG potentially/probably ordering a few more.
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JannEejit
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:05 am

My theory on all of this is that airline fleet managers are now so sick of reading countless A.net United/Delta 747 retirement threads, that they decided the next major VLA type retirement must be delayed for as long as possible ! ;-)
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:53 am

keesje wrote:
We just shouldn't ignore BA operate 48 VLA's today for a reason, with 77W's available already for many years.

Yes, there's a reason: they were paid for decades ago, under previous BA management.

The current IAG management just wants to move capacity to LEVEL and to install as many slimline narrowbody torture seats as possible at BA.

BA got cheap 77Ws as payback for 787 delays, not via some grand strategic initiative.

Earlier it was pointed out that the new EK order doesn't start till 2020 and Airbus has production gaps for 2019.

Perhaps these things will help get a deal done.

EK's deal will at least give BA the ability to buy some A380s without fear of the production stopping in the near future.
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neomax
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:23 am

DWC wrote:
The A388 ain't too big for their LHR-JFK market.
A-netters here have repeated how BA's JFK Terminal just cannot accommodate the whale, nuance... ;)


I cannot understand for the life of me why T7 can't just upgrade their gate. Who gives a damn? Every airport on earth that has the demand to support A380 service has upgraded their facilities to accommodate it. And JFK isn't some small airport either, BA not being able to accommodate the A380 at T7 is complete snakeoil. I call bullshit on this excuse. There are dozens of airports where it was believed the A380 would not have enough room to park, and yet it can after some modifications to the gate. If they can do it, T7 can do it. And for everyone that says "What about frequency?" nobody says that you have to downsize other aircraft, ever heard of an upgauge? Nothing is stopping you from flying several A380's on a route. If you have 3x 777, 3x 744, convert it to 2x 777, 2x 744, 2x A388. You keep the same number of slots and increase capacity as you need it.
 
BAorNoWay
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:11 am

keesje wrote:
I never attached much likelyhood to the used A380s idea, unlike many others here. Just tactics to get the price down. BA never bought used WB's as far as I know. Replacing 50 747s with 12 A380s and a bunch of twins.. equally unlikely. BA replacing a 747 by a 777 fro LHR means cutting capacity from a slot restricted hub. Folks knee jerking "frequency" probably never worked in the industry.

Image


I have to respectfully disagree with your statement regarding frequency. Frequency to a premium heavy full service scheduled carrier in one of the worlds busiest business traffic international airports is pretty important. I say this as someone who has worked ‘in the industry’ for a very long time.

Yes LHR is at capacity, but whether people like it or not, the odds are highly stacked in favour of Heathrow expansion. Yes this will open up more slots to competition, but BA will also get a good chunk of the available portfolio too.

BA made it clear a long time ago that the LH fleet would focus on big twins, A350’s, 787, and potentially the 777X. Fuel prices are volatile, and are slowly heading north again after a good run at the lower end of the market. The risk factor of buying a four engine aircraft that becomes more expensive in times of high fuel prices and even more so during economic downturns is too great a risk, especially as the aircraft cannot be redeployed as easily as a big twin aircraft.

It is rather telling that no other airline except Emirates has more than 30 of these aircraft in their fleet or on outstanding delivery schedules. It’s a fantastic aircraft, and one that would likely have done exceptionally well if we didn’t have the financial crisis that made bean counters and airline CEO’s much more focussed on cost efficiencies and business risk aversion. CEO’s (Willie Walsh even more so than others) are no longer buying aircraft just for the sake of making the airlines livery look nice on a big plane. They are interested in the long term financial stability of the airline, not only it’s ability to generate as much revenue as possible (which the A380 can be great for) but also managing costs at the other end and ensuring that the airline is structured in a manner than will ride out the inevitable economic downturn when it comes.

It is likely that BA will increase the number of A380’s but I don’t expect to see anymore than 24 in the fleet, which is a shame as I’d love them to replace the 747 fleet with the aircraft, but it’s simply not happening.

Also, BA is currently somewhat at the back of the cue in terms of growth projections for the IAG Group. Aer Lingus, LEVEL, Vueling and to a lesser extent Iberia are the growth drivers within the IAG Group of airlines at present. If the Group can grow the other airlines in the portfolio more easily with less capital expenditure and greater flexibility (think about the deployment of the A321neoLR - can do both long haul and short haul operations = win win for network planners and maximises the aircrafts utilisation), the CEO and Board have a responsibility to focus growth in this manner to maximise the returns for the wider group and its shareholders.

Willie Walsh has made all this quite clear in interviews and the facts speak for themselves in the IAG Capital Markets Day presentation.
 
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flee
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:32 am

I am beginning to think that future A380 orders by IAG/BA and other airlines will not be large orders - an order for 3-5 frames is more likely than one for 10 or more. These "small" orders will allow airlines to fine tune their VLA capacity at lower business risk from time to time. It also allows airlines to tap into any airframe/engine refinements that Airbus may have implemented from time to time. Mega A380 orders will be a thing of the past.
 
Andy33
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:05 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
I guess the big difference is that LH does have the 779 coming online (20x to replace the 13x remaining 744), while BA's order for A35K (18x) is nowhere near enough to replace the 30+ B744 that still operate. Yes, BA got some B78X on order also, but I see some of those replacing older B772/77E also. Plus LH got the 748s :scratchchin: :scratchchin:

The thing with IAG is that they publish a 5 year fleet plan, updated each year. The most recent one was in November 2017.
It outlines current orders, all of which are for delivery within the five year period.
From it (and the one published in November 2016) we learn that they will be replacing 24 744s with a mixture of A35K and 787-10 between now and the end of 2022.
By February 2024 the remaining 12 744s will be gone, so effectively whatever replaces them will need to be delivered during 2023, and this will need to be a new order or a conversion of options, or second hand.
None of what is currently on order is to replace 777s of any kind, because they will have exactly the same number at the end of 2022 as they do now. But the 3 772-nonER will be replaced by 3 second-hand 77Ws. Discussion here has suggested these are coming from LATAM. 77Es are not due to start being replaced until 2027, so we really won't see orders for that this year!
There are 7 outstanding A388 options.
 
marcelh
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:36 am

Mortyman wrote:
Would KLM ever consider the Airbus 380 ? I know they have not seen it as an option in the past, but still ... Would look cool in blue ...

A few years ago they said that they could use a few (max 5) in their fleet, but that was too small. I don't understand why AirFrance-KLM don't use a mixed A380 fleet.
 
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JBusworth
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:49 am

Andy33 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
I guess the big difference is that LH does have the 779 coming online (20x to replace the 13x remaining 744), while BA's order for A35K (18x) is nowhere near enough to replace the 30+ B744 that still operate. Yes, BA got some B78X on order also, but I see some of those replacing older B772/77E also. Plus LH got the 748s :scratchchin: :scratchchin:

The thing with IAG is that they publish a 5 year fleet plan, updated each year. The most recent one was in November 2017.
It outlines current orders, all of which are for delivery within the five year period.
From it (and the one published in November 2016) we learn that they will be replacing 24 744s with a mixture of A35K and 787-10 between now and the end of 2022.
By February 2024 the remaining 12 744s will be gone, so effectively whatever replaces them will need to be delivered during 2023, and this will need to be a new order or a conversion of options, or second hand.
None of what is currently on order is to replace 777s of any kind, because they will have exactly the same number at the end of 2022 as they do now. But the 3 772-nonER will be replaced by 3 second-hand 77Ws. Discussion here has suggested these are coming from LATAM. 77Es are not due to start being replaced until 2027, so we really won't see orders for that this year!
There are 7 outstanding A388 options.


Perhaps BA is looking at getting more A380s in 2023 to replace the last 12 747s, could do a 1:1 replacement with an order for 12. Personally I would like to see maybe 5 or so in IB colours too.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:23 am

I bet that BA will take 11 abreast configuration if they buy new frames.
 
marcelh
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:30 am

seahawk wrote:
I bet that BA will take 11 abreast configuration if they buy new frames.


A Level-configuration...
 
Geoff1947
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:43 am

anfromme wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
keesje wrote:
We just shouldn't ignore BA operate 48 VLA's today for a reason, with 77W's available already for many years.


They have not used the A388 to replace the 747s. They don't have plans for A380 on NYC route (their busiest). A380 too big for that.

It seems BA are doing an analysis of where for them frequency wins over capacity per flight with regard to revenue potential. While NYC so far doesn't get the A380 treatment, nearby(-ish) Boston does.
Look at it another way - a busy route with good load factors and yield (like LHR-NYC) is probably a better candidate to deploy those not-quite-so-efficient-anymore 747s on (because you can make up for the higher operating costs) than some lower yield long haul sectors.
Would make sense to me, anyway (Spoken in true armchair CEO fashion ;-) ).

On the whole, they haven't really used any type (or combination thereof) to fully replace their 747s, seeing as they still operate 36 747-400. The 21 retired so far have certainly been replaced by a combination of 12 A380s and 12 777-300ER. They also have 18 A350-1000 on order, but that number still leaves 18 747 replacements unaccounted for (assuming a 1:1 replacement 744 for A3510).
It's pretty fair to assume that more A3510 or A380 will be needed - most likely a combination thereof.


BA has repeatedly stated that the remainder of their 747s will be replaced by a combination of A350s and 787s. By reducing capacity they can increase prices since competitors are locked out due to LHR capacity constraints. If the stories about additional A380s are true then BA have changed their plans.

Geoff
 
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TedToToe
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:48 am

neomax wrote:
I cannot understand for the life of me why T7 can't just upgrade their gate. Who gives a damn? Every airport on earth that has the demand to support A380 service has upgraded their facilities to accommodate it. And JFK isn't some small airport either, BA not being able to accommodate the A380 at T7 is complete snakeoil. I call bullshit on this excuse. There are dozens of airports where it was believed the A380 would not have enough room to park, and yet it can after some modifications to the gate. If they can do it, T7 can do it. And for everyone that says "What about frequency?" nobody says that you have to downsize other aircraft, ever heard of an upgauge? Nothing is stopping you from flying several A380's on a route. If you have 3x 777, 3x 744, convert it to 2x 777, 2x 744, 2x A388. You keep the same number of slots and increase capacity as you need it.

I'm definitely in the never say never camp when it comes BA A388s at JFK. Certainly, BA needs to maintain frequency, but remembering that JFK is also slot controlled, if BA wants to increase capacity, they are not going to do it with the A35Ks and 78Xs on order. I can definitely see the A388 operating alongside a Hi-J 77W or 78X into JFK in the future.
 
Arion640
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:06 am

Geoff1947 wrote:
anfromme wrote:
airzona11 wrote:

They have not used the A388 to replace the 747s. They don't have plans for A380 on NYC route (their busiest). A380 too big for that.

It seems BA are doing an analysis of where for them frequency wins over capacity per flight with regard to revenue potential. While NYC so far doesn't get the A380 treatment, nearby(-ish) Boston does.
Look at it another way - a busy route with good load factors and yield (like LHR-NYC) is probably a better candidate to deploy those not-quite-so-efficient-anymore 747s on (because you can make up for the higher operating costs) than some lower yield long haul sectors.
Would make sense to me, anyway (Spoken in true armchair CEO fashion ;-) ).

On the whole, they haven't really used any type (or combination thereof) to fully replace their 747s, seeing as they still operate 36 747-400. The 21 retired so far have certainly been replaced by a combination of 12 A380s and 12 777-300ER. They also have 18 A350-1000 on order, but that number still leaves 18 747 replacements unaccounted for (assuming a 1:1 replacement 744 for A3510).
It's pretty fair to assume that more A3510 or A380 will be needed - most likely a combination thereof.


BA has repeatedly stated that the remainder of their 747s will be replaced by a combination of A350s and 787s. By reducing capacity they can increase prices since competitors are locked out due to LHR capacity constraints. If the stories about additional A380s are true then BA have changed their plans.

Geoff


What your saying makes sense, but That plan only really works in markets like Phoenix, Nashville and New Orleans where BA are the only operator because of competition.

Going East the ME3 eat them alive. The only advantage BA have is a non stop flight. Price wins the majority of the time. Even flights to the US they still have there work cut out as from London alone there's Delta/VS, United and Norwegian. With AF/KLM and LH over the water. They can't keep lids on prices for very long.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:23 am

Geoff1947 wrote:
BA has repeatedly stated that the remainder of their 747s will be replaced by a combination of A350s and 787s. By reducing capacity they can increase prices since competitors are locked out due to LHR capacity constraints. If the stories about additional A380s are true then BA have changed their plans.


Circumstances and plans can and do change. IAG is a complex and changing beast.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Mortyman
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:45 am

So why can't BA use the A380 to New York, when both Lufthansa and Air France does ? What is the difference ?
 
raylee67
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:47 am

LHR is probably the airport that has most need for A380. BA can easily deploy A380 profitably to routes such as LAX, SFO, HKG, SIN, JNB, PVG, SYD and even MCO, YYZ and YVR seasonally if it decides to make some A380 high-density. And even with the A380, those long range routes can still maintain multiple flights a day, without sacrificing frequencies. With A380's immediate future guaranteed by EK's order, BA would now feel safe to order a few (may be 10 to 15?) more, as long as the price is right.

NRT was another such airport before, but since the expanding of HND for international flights, NRT has no such needs any more.
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Arion640
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:49 am

raylee67 wrote:
LHR is probably the airport that has most need for A380. BA can easily deploy A380 profitably to routes such as LAX, SFO, HKG, SIN, JNB, PVG, SYD and even MCO, YYZ and YVR seasonally if it decides to make some A380 high-density. And even with the A380, those long range routes can still maintain multiple flights a day, without sacrificing frequencies. With A380's immediate future guaranteed by EK's order, BA would now feel safe to order a few (may be 10 to 15?) more, as long as the price is right.

NRT was another such airport before, but since the expanding of HND for international flights, NRT has no such needs any more.


SYD no, MCO no. But all the rest probably yes.
 
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JBusworth
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:52 am

Arion640 wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
LHR is probably the airport that has most need for A380. BA can easily deploy A380 profitably to routes such as LAX, SFO, HKG, SIN, JNB, PVG, SYD and even MCO, YYZ and YVR seasonally if it decides to make some A380 high-density. And even with the A380, those long range routes can still maintain multiple flights a day, without sacrificing frequencies. With A380's immediate future guaranteed by EK's order, BA would now feel safe to order a few (may be 10 to 15?) more, as long as the price is right.

NRT was another such airport before, but since the expanding of HND for international flights, NRT has no such needs any more.


SYD no, MCO no. But all the rest probably yes.


If QF keeps decreasing capacity on its OZ-LHR routes whilst demand increases, I'd never say never for BA A380 into SYD. SYD is supposedly one of the fastest growing A380 airports jn the world according to local media.
 
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cv990Coronado
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:09 am

raylee67 wrote:
LHR is probably the airport that has most need for A380. BA can easily deploy A380 profitably to routes such as LAX, SFO, HKG, SIN, JNB, PVG, SYD and even MCO, YYZ and YVR seasonally if it decides to make some A380 high-density. And even with the A380, those long range routes can still maintain multiple flights a day, without sacrificing frequencies. With A380's immediate future guaranteed by EK's order, BA would now feel safe to order a few (may be 10 to 15?) more, as long as the price is right.

NRT was another such airport before, but since the expanding of HND for international flights, NRT has no such needs any more.


When CPT becomes A380 ready it could take one or maybe two in the southern summer, of the A380's you suggest for YVR and YYZ which are used in the northern summer. Many days we have 3 X 744's and they are usually full, the only thing which might be a problem is the 744's used here are often the lower J config.
SSC-707B727 737-741234SP757/762/3/772/WA300/10/319/2/1-342/3/6-880-DAM-VC10 TRD 111 Ju52-DC8/9/10/11-YS11-748-VCV DH4B L
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:24 am

alan3 wrote:
If BA would order more, any chance VS would ever change their minds about their existing 380 order?


I was just thinking about this actually. Part of me thinks it's totally impossible that VS would take any, but there must be some logic for keeping 380s on the order book, rather than quietly removing them when they placed their A350 order...
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY // Upcoming: W6 A320, W6 A321, EVA 77W, VS 787-9m AS A320, VS A35K, KLM E190, KLM 738, LS 737
 
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seahawk
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:26 am

marcelh wrote:
seahawk wrote:
I bet that BA will take 11 abreast configuration if they buy new frames.


A Level-configuration...


No, the remaining 744 have a quite high density configuration and it matches the reasoning that re-configuring a used frame would be too expensive. Because in the end if you would stay 10 abreast it would just be a cabin refresh which is a limited effort, unless you want to go with the A380Plus density cabin, then it is very expensive and hardly worth the effort for a 12 year old frame.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:31 am

flyingphil wrote:
As far as the LHR third runway is concerned it is a long way off into the future.. if it ever happens - hence the need for more BA A380’s.
BTW - The ‘short’ runway option is still 3,200 meters (10,500 ft) which is long enough for most big aircraft. But there are still massive hurdles to overcome, re-routing part of one of Europes busiest road, and knocking down Willie Walsh’s office which he ain’t too happy about.

Possible that the IAG A380 order may include Iberia and even Aer Lingus.. not sure that Dublin is A380 capable yet.

Funny how last week the A380 was dead and buried..


Agreed. It's a shame the government and appropriate parties won't get their backsides into gear and get work started - it will be expensive but slots at Heathrow are like gold dust, and you can guarantee additional slots at LHR will be snapped up by BA, VS, US3, ME3 and chinese airlines quicker than you can blink.
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY // Upcoming: W6 A320, W6 A321, EVA 77W, VS 787-9m AS A320, VS A35K, KLM E190, KLM 738, LS 737
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:35 am

Bealine251 wrote:
I notice on the website Jethros.org.uk it lists BA's two oldest 747s, G-BNLK and G-BNLP as due to retire by the end of 2017. G-BNLK was due last Nov 17 and G-BNLP in Dec. Both are still in service (LK is operating BA85 to Vancouver just now) As they appear to be holding on to these is it a sign there is a shortage of long haul aircraft and the A380 is definitely needed ASAP



I suspect the ongoing engine issues with some of their 787’s may be playing a part. It’s the reason why VS have taken on some of the ex-Air Berlin A330’s for this year. BA can get round that for the time being by deferring retirements of older aircraft.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:41 am

marcelh wrote:
Mortyman wrote:
Would KLM ever consider the Airbus 380 ? I know they have not seen it as an option in the past, but still ... Would look cool in blue ...

A few years ago they said that they could use a few (max 5) in their fleet, but that was too small. I don't understand why AirFrance-KLM don't use a mixed A380 fleet.


:checkmark: but probably problems with the unions if they were to do something like that.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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XAM2175
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:42 am

In specific terms of LHR-JFK for BA, here's a little comparison I put together the last time the topic of the A380 there came up (three weeks ago :/ )

BA CONFIGURATIONS AS AT DEC-2017
A388   F14 J97 W55 Y303
B744   F14 J86 W30 Y145 ("V4"; Super-High-J)
B77W   F14 J56 W44 Y185
B789   F08 J42 W39 Y127


Remember, this is a route with huge premium demand and yield, but the available capacity across all operators and comparable routings make Y yields far less impressive.
Even if the terminal at JFK could take an A380, up-gauging from the 744 is a 12.8% increase in J capacity (11 more seats), an 83.3% increase in W (25 more seats), and a 109% increase in Y capacity (158 more seats) - and it's that last thing that's exactly what BA don't want. The Super-High-J 744s will own LHR-JFK for as long as they're still presentable and then there'll be a high-J-configured replacement for them.

The A380 is more useful - and more profitable - for BA where capacity restrictions translate to decent yields across all cabins.

It is also worth noting that they already have one of the more premium-heavy A380 configurations flying:
BA A388   F14 J97 W55 Y303
KE A388   F12 J94 W-- Y293 or 301
LH A388   F08 J78 W52 Y371
QF A388   F14 J64 W35 Y371
EK A388   F14 J76 W-- Y399 or 427
EY A388   F09 J70 W-- Y415
QR A388   F08 J48 W-- Y461
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