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Waterbomber
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:44 am

I think that BA will order more A380's, and that they will launch daily non-stop service to SYD and MEL, giving both EK and QF a run for their money on the kangaroo route. I think that Airbus will help BA for this, as they both must be pretty upset about QF starting ULH using B787's. The PR effect would be huge for both. If BA start the operation, QF would have no choice but to send their B789's elsewhere and cancel any pipe dreams of expanding direct flights using twins.
The current A380 is a bit limited, but with a few modifications, a 2020 premium-heavy A380 could do it. It's the right aircraft for the mission.

Also, the JV across the Atlantic could see some frequency mergers.
Pax would prefer to fly an A380 across the big pond to the Big Apple. It makes sense in terms of customer satisfaction and in terms of $$$.

I can also see BA bringing back the A380 to Japan and into their Japan JV with JL.
It makes sense because both HND and LHR are slot restricted and it's a little useless for BA to keep both their HND and NRT flights the way they are operating now. Also, the WOW factor will bring more Japanese customers to the BA HND flight.
Last edited by Waterbomber on Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:45 am

keesje wrote:
I never attached much likelyhood to the used A380s idea, unlike many others here. Just tactics to get the price down. BA never bought used WB's as far as I know.


Don't know, I think Airbus is doing as much with the price that they can, no need for shell games, just a matter if BA is willing to pay the price Airbus needs to build it. If that is a match then an order, if not, then not, as simple as that.
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keesje
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:46 am

It is a global market. If EK didn't have 100 A380s and 150 77W's , BA would have more than 12 A380's.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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LoganTheBogan
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:50 am

Considering RR has been the engine choice for all of EKs recent A380s and all of BAs A380s, this could be very good news for RR and if an order is signed then we might see a potential PIP.
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787Driver
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:53 am

neomax wrote:
I saw this coming from a mile away. This was the 2nd worst kept secret in the industry, after EK's desire for another A380 order.


Why do you think it was a secret?
 
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speedbored
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:53 am

JamesCousins wrote:
alan3 wrote:
If BA would order more, any chance VS would ever change their minds about their existing 380 order?


I was just thinking about this actually. Part of me thinks it's totally impossible that VS would take any, but there must be some logic for keeping 380s on the order book, rather than quietly removing them when they placed their A350 order...

Even though VS are currently pretty certain that they will not require A380s in the near future, it still makes sense for them to keep the order on the books for as long as it costs them nothing to do so.

By cancelling now, they would likely lose any remaining deposits as Airbus have already compensated them for the initial delays via other orders.

If things change and they do end up wanting some A380s at some point, they're unlikely to get a better deal than the one they already have on the books.
 
Arion640
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:02 am

JBusworth wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
LHR is probably the airport that has most need for A380. BA can easily deploy A380 profitably to routes such as LAX, SFO, HKG, SIN, JNB, PVG, SYD and even MCO, YYZ and YVR seasonally if it decides to make some A380 high-density. And even with the A380, those long range routes can still maintain multiple flights a day, without sacrificing frequencies. With A380's immediate future guaranteed by EK's order, BA would now feel safe to order a few (may be 10 to 15?) more, as long as the price is right.

NRT was another such airport before, but since the expanding of HND for international flights, NRT has no such needs any more.


SYD no, MCO no. But all the rest probably yes.


If QF keeps decreasing capacity on its OZ-LHR routes whilst demand increases, I'd never say never for BA A380 into SYD. SYD is supposedly one of the fastest growing A380 airports jn the world according to local media.


If that was the case it would of gone to high j 747 by now.
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eamondzhang
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:06 am

JBusworth wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
LHR is probably the airport that has most need for A380. BA can easily deploy A380 profitably to routes such as LAX, SFO, HKG, SIN, JNB, PVG, SYD and even MCO, YYZ and YVR seasonally if it decides to make some A380 high-density. And even with the A380, those long range routes can still maintain multiple flights a day, without sacrificing frequencies. With A380's immediate future guaranteed by EK's order, BA would now feel safe to order a few (may be 10 to 15?) more, as long as the price is right.

NRT was another such airport before, but since the expanding of HND for international flights, NRT has no such needs any more.


SYD no, MCO no. But all the rest probably yes.


If QF keeps decreasing capacity on its OZ-LHR routes whilst demand increases, I'd never say never for BA A380 into SYD. SYD is supposedly one of the fastest growing A380 airports jn the world according to local media.

They can't afford to tie up 3 whale jets to one route. Plus while QF is reducing capacity, other players in the market are increasing capacity and you have more competitors coming in. It's not like other players are stable in the market.

In addition I believe SYD is served by mixed fleet crew currently, while A380s are exclusively crewed by the old long haul guys.

Michael
 
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TedToToe
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:15 am

Mortyman wrote:
So why can't BA use the A380 to New York, when both Lufthansa and Air France does ? What is the difference ?

BA uses T7 at JFK which does not have any A380 compatible gates. I believe taxiways in and out of the terminal area are an issue as well!
 
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cv990Coronado
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:19 am

eamondzhang wrote:
JBusworth wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

SYD no, MCO no. But all the rest probably yes.


If QF keeps decreasing capacity on its OZ-LHR routes whilst demand increases, I'd never say never for BA A380 into SYD. SYD is supposedly one of the fastest growing A380 airports jn the world according to local media.

They can't afford to tie up 3 whale jets to one route. Plus while QF is reducing capacity, other players in the market are increasing capacity and you have more competitors coming in. It's not like other players are stable in the market.

In addition I believe SYD is served by mixed fleet crew currently, while A380s are exclusively crewed by the old long haul guys.

Michael


From what I read some years ago BA was considering dropping SYD altogether. I think the 77W mixed fleet combination saved the route. The 747 was too expensive I can't see an A380 being worthwhile perhaps the A35K one day. The A350K will save on fuel but needing to use three frames, the economics would probably favour 3 cheap 77W to three new A35K's.
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scotron11
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:37 am

keesje wrote:
I never attached much likelyhood to the used A380s idea, unlike many others here. Just tactics to get the price down. BA never bought used WB's as far as I know. Replacing 50 747s with 12 A380s and a bunch of twins.. equally unlikely. BA replacing a 747 by a 777 fro LHR means cutting capacity from a slot restricted hub. Folks knee jerking "frequency" probably never worked in the industry.

Image


You are right..even tho WW has said he is open to lease or used frames, the recent order for 3xA330 for LEVEL, later increased to 5, were for new builds. Does anyone know where the 3x77W are coming from to replace the 772s??
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:07 pm

keesje wrote:
BA replacing a 747 by a 777 fro LHR means cutting capacity from a slot restricted hub


Still, it would also result in higher yields. Some airlines swap capacity for yields.
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TedToToe
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:11 pm

scotron11 wrote:
Does anyone know where the 3x77W are coming from to replace the 772s??

It has been reported elsewhere that they are ex LATAM 77Ws coming off lease.
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:22 pm

How are loads on the LHR-SIN part of BA15/16 ? If they justify having a second daily flight to SIN changing the flight to anything else (be it A380 or A350) would only really mobilize 1 extra frame not 3. That being said 2x A380 to SIN and an A380 to SYD might be a bit too much.
 
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XAM2175
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:31 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
... BA will order more A380's, and that they will launch daily non-stop service to SYD and MEL, giving both EK and QF a run for their money on the kangaroo route. I think that Airbus will help BA for this, as they both must be pretty upset about QF starting ULH using B787's. The PR effect would be huge for both. If BA start the operation, QF would have no choice but to send their B789's elsewhere and cancel any pipe dreams of expanding direct flights using twins.
The current A380 is a bit limited, but with a few modifications, a 2020 premium-heavy A380 could do it. It's the right aircraft for the mission.


Non-stop LHR-SYD/MEL is not possible with current A380s and I doubt it will be possible with a hypothetical future A380 either, as the configuration changes necessary to get the range will give it a capacity barely beyond "useless". Even the A380 Plus, assuming it ever actually gets built, is marketed by Airbus as offering "80 more passenger" at current range (8200 nmi) or "300 nmi" additional range.

As a point of comparison, the only time LHR-SYD has ever been flown non-stop before now was a one-off flight of QF's B747-438 VH-OJA in 1989, and that was only possible with a lot of effort (the aircraft had a full cabin installed but only the forward galley was provisioned, only doors 1L and 1R had the slide-rafts installed, no ULD locks were fitted in the holds, the fuel load was above normal - the volumetric shut-off valves were closed and fuelling continued until it began to overflow from the outboard vents, and it was a special fuel blend as well. The aircraft additionally received an engine-out tow to the runway, carried only twenty-three passengers and crew, and yet still a "FUEL QTY LOW" alert was received during the approach to SYD).

Obviously things have advanced since then but even still, QF's configuration for the B789 as lined up for LHR-PER is pretty premium-heavy at J42 W28 Y166. Not quite as much as BA (F08 J42 W39 Y127) or "I-can't-believe-it's-not-1960" outlier JL (J44 W35 Y116 in v1), but certainly front-heavy compared to AA's J30 W21 Y234 (inc. 36 MCE) and NZ's v1 at J18 W21 Y263.

Plus, as eamondzhang notes;
eamondzhang wrote:
They can't afford to tie up 3 whale jets to one route ... In addition I believe SYD is served by mixed fleet crew currently, while A380s are exclusively crewed by the old long haul guys.


The Kangaroo Route is looooong when it comes to an aircraft utilisation perspective. Combine that with specially-configured aircraft that don't fit the rest of your network and it'll be a bloodbath.

BA have also been pretty open (IIRC) about the fact that moving to the 77W and Mixed Fleet crewing is how they finally made SYD profitable. It's not a question of capacity or allure or anything other than bare economics. QF and BA are both end-of-line carriers playing piggy-in-the-middle in a market where there are at least six "piggies" and they're all pretty damn tall. SQ, CX, QR, EY, and of course EK have excellent networks into both the UK and Australia and the mainland Chinese airlines are working to catch up. QF's strategy here has been to get into bed with EK and offer them Australian domestic feed while using EK's European network to dramatically improve their competitiveness over the old backtrack-from-London approach.

Waterbomber wrote:
Pax would prefer to fly an A380 across the big pond to the Big Apple. It makes sense in terms of customer satisfaction and in terms of $$$ ... I can also see BA bringing back the A380 to Japan ... the WOW factor will bring more Japanese customers to the BA HND flight.


I won't deny the A380-aura is a thing but I think it's a tenuous assumption to make that any carrier is seeing concrete benefit from it. The vast majority of passengers have demonstrated that timing and price drive their spend, not aircraft type. And as I posted earlier, with BA's current configurations the A380 is for the most part an increase in Y seats that then have to be filled, which further diminishes yields for the Y seats they're already flying. An up-gauge for prestige is the airline equivalent of stepping over a pound to pick up a penny.
 
jumpjets
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:46 pm

[quote="XAM2175"]In specific terms of LHR-JFK for BA, here's a little comparison I put together the last time the topic of the A380 there came up (three weeks ago :/ )

BA CONFIGURATIONS AS AT DEC-2017
A388   F14 J97 W55 Y303
B744   F14 J86 W30 Y145 ("V4"; Super-High-J)
B77W   F14 J56 W44 Y185
B789   F08 J42 W39 Y127


Remember, this is a route with huge premium demand and yield, but the available capacity across all operators and comparable routings make Y yields far less impressive.


If the gate situation at JFK could be reseolved and given NYC is such a high premium route could a handful of the potential new A380s have their own super hi-J configuration with say:

F14, J 120 W 75 and Y225 (and I am guessing here as to what would then be possible in Y) - so maxing out on the premium traveller and cutting back on the less profitable Y seats?
 
jfk777
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:48 pm

DWC wrote:
FlyingColours wrote:
As for Simon Calder, the guy makes my piss boil, the fact the press wheel him out at every opportunity to talk about aviation is insulting to all of those who work in the industry. I swore after the stuff he said about my airline as it was collapsing I'd "lamp the bar-steward" if I ever saw him...

"Simon Calder's career in travel started at Gatwick Airport, where he cleaned aircraft for Laker Airways and later worked as a security officer." http://www.independent.co.uk/author/simon-calder


airzona11 wrote:
They don't have plans for A380 on NYC route (their busiest). A380 too big for that. A350s/787s are replacing those.

The A388 ain't too big for their LHR-JFK market.
A-netters here have repeated how BA's JFK Terminal just cannot accommodate the whale, nuance... ;)


keesje wrote:
We just shouldn't ignore BA operate 48 VLA's today for a reason, with 77W's available already for many years.

I never attached much likelyhood to the used A380s idea, unlike many others here. Just tactics to get the price down. BA never bought used WB's as far as I know. Replacing 50 747s with 12 A380s and a bunch of twins.. equally unlikely. BA replacing a 747 by a 777 fro LHR means cutting capacity from a slot restricted hub. Folks knee jerking "frequency" probably never worked in the industry.

Image

My money is on your assessment.
To add some spice to the topic, even if they are no aeronautics specialists, "Le Monde" ( France's most respected newspaper ) now openly talks of Neo-ing it or just plussing it :

"After long refusing to put in more money, Airbus would now be ready to, on condition there be enough orders to warrant 2 billion euros investment" ( Après avoir longtemps refusé de mettre à nouveau la main à la poche, Airbus y serait maintenant prêt à condition d’avoir un nombre suffisant de commandes pour justifier un investissement supplémentaire d’environ 2 milliards d’euros ).
http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/ ... _3234.html

With that standard caveat, no news really. But the change of tune in the media is new :
positive thinking, which may or may not be based on Airbus intelligence ( China ordering too ? ).


BA's two close competitors use their A380 from JFK to CDG & FRA, so if it works at Air France and Lufthansa why not BA ? BA Terminal 7 could be modified for an A380 at gates 9 & 10. BA has used the A380 to Boston, Dulles , Chicago and MIA so why wouldn't the most important destination in the USA be a good use for an A380 ? IF BA willed it they would find a way ?
 
Kikko19
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:54 pm

Sure but paxes are getting more and more informed about flights they are going to take. More visits to seatguru and similar sites. And I know a few not a.netters that would avoid overcramped and noisy acft for long trips. So if they could choose a 8 abreast 330 over 9 abreast 777 they would go for the 330.
 
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par13del
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:06 pm

So the pax traffic between CDG and JFK is comparable to LHR and JFK?
 
GDB
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:06 pm

Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
We just shouldn't ignore BA operate 48 VLA's today for a reason, with 77W's available already for many years.

Yes, there's a reason: they were paid for decades ago, under previous BA management.

The current IAG management just wants to move capacity to LEVEL and to install as many slimline narrowbody torture seats as possible at BA.

BA got cheap 77Ws as payback for 787 delays, not via some grand strategic initiative.

Earlier it was pointed out that the new EK order doesn't start till 2020 and Airbus has production gaps for 2019.

Perhaps these things will help get a deal done.

EK's deal will at least give BA the ability to buy some A380s without fear of the production stopping in the near future.


I agree, as someone at BA the thought of us having used A380's sent a chill down the spine, after previous second hand buys of much smaller aircraft have been torrid in execution, largely self inflicted I have to say. Largely caused by the way we choose to do things.
Still, getting more capacity on the cheap looked good on a spreadsheet.

It also to me seemed perverse to be spending all that money on cabin upgrades on 747's which won't be around that much longer, we should have taken those A380's on option instead and brought more.
Maybe when VS choose to be honest about their own plans for their A380 production places, we can take some of those!
(Do recall all the noise that tax dodging Dickie made when he ordered A380's in 2001, making great play that he was getting them and unpatriotic BA were not).

BA have also given up on believing the government on the 3rd runway, it was only 'scrapped' as an announced policy in 2010 to try and gain parliamentary seats potentially affected in the election that year, which largely did not work as Cameron had to go into a coalition until 2015.
If anything, they are far weaker now to resist the NIMBY brigade.
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:08 pm

It is always possible that BA could base A380's at Gatwick.
As we know LHR is full to bursting and the new runway is at least 10 to 15 years in the future.
Manchester and Birmingham are also A380 capable so nothing to stop BA tapping into that market.
Maybe even Stansted! I notice it is starting to be used by BA Cityflyer..
Given the lack of room for BA to expand at LHR maybe they are considering other airports to grow their operations.
After all BA is just a brand and part of the IAG Group, maybe some A380's will end up with Level or Iberia. . or maybe Veuling?
 
parapente
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:10 pm

For the sake of ' completeness' it would be nice to see the BA (IAG) order.It was/is the last outstanding one of the 'first round'that has 'commercial reality' ( although some of the Emirates will be second round replacements).It would leave the prospect of China but that's a ways away most likely.
I guess in real terms Airbus have now got to their initial B/E target of 300 a/c although that has moved to the right significantly due to the initial problems/delays.
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:17 pm

JBusworth wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
LHR is probably the airport that has most need for A380. BA can easily deploy A380 profitably to routes such as LAX, SFO, HKG, SIN, JNB, PVG, SYD and even MCO, YYZ and YVR seasonally if it decides to make some A380 high-density. And even with the A380, those long range routes can still maintain multiple flights a day, without sacrificing frequencies. With A380's immediate future guaranteed by EK's order, BA would now feel safe to order a few (may be 10 to 15?) more, as long as the price is right.

NRT was another such airport before, but since the expanding of HND for international flights, NRT has no such needs any more.


SYD no, MCO no. But all the rest probably yes.


If QF keeps decreasing capacity on its OZ-LHR routes whilst demand increases, I'd never say never for BA A380 into SYD. SYD is supposedly one of the fastest growing A380 airports jn the world according to local media.

QF is decreasing capacity because they are starting nonstops (for now from PER, but want to start from SYD in the future). That is going to suck away a lot of premium demand, even if it means turning away cheap pax available for other carriers to take. BA’s A380s are configured for high yield premium traffic (same target as the nonstops), not as a low CASM Y shuttle.
 
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anfromme
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:18 pm

[quote=Geoff1947]BA has repeatedly stated that the remainder of their 747s will be replaced by a combination of A350s and 787s. By reducing capacity they can increase prices since competitors are locked out due to LHR capacity constraints. If the stories about additional A380s are true then BA have changed their plans.[/quote]
Firstly, as scbriml already pointed out, plans can change. Hence the various threads about whether UA and AA might not take A350s after all.
Secondly, as far as I remember they never said that 100% of 744s will be replaced by A3510 and 787s. As pointed out above, their fleet plans don't really show enough orders marked for 744 replacement yet. So far, they only said that a number of A3510 and 787 were to replace 747s. Not necessarily all of the remaining 747s, though.
Lastly, BA have repeatedly said that they are quite happy with the A380 and looking for more of them. Except at the time they were considering used examples as they thought Airbus' asking price for new-built examples was too high. How much of this was a negotiating tactic and whether BA are eventually going to be able to complete a deal for 1st or 2nd hand A380s is anyone's guess, but generally, BA's interest in more A380s is well-documented at this point.
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Lofty
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:19 pm

The A380 comes with its other issue which is how many can BA accommodate at LHR. Both T5 and T3 have a very limited number of A380 stands and the BA base has even less. At the moment it is already a change to accommodate the ones they have, even with the new ones replacing B747-400s stands will still be an issue.
 
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anfromme
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:35 pm

Lofty wrote:
The A380 comes with its other issue which is how many can BA accommodate at LHR. Both T5 and T3 have a very limited number of A380 stands and the BA base has even less. At the moment it is already a change to accommodate the ones they have, even with the new ones replacing B747-400s stands will still be an issue.

As it stands, LHR is the second-busiest busiest airport for A380s. The only one busier is DXB. So LHR doesn't have that few A380-capable stands.
BA themselves have 9 A380-compatible gates already, seven of those at T5. Thos are all 744-capable, and BA have an additional 24 744-capable gates at T5 and another 14 at T3.
I'm pretty sure they'll be able to convert a bunch of them to A388 standard, should they decide to buy more A380s.
Will that cost extra? Sure, but any associated costs will be part of BA's overall business case evaluation of whether or not to buy those planes. Same with any other plane, really. Having enough gates, mx capacity etc. to actually operate a plane isn't optional.
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KarelXWB
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:40 pm

Lofty wrote:
The A380 comes with its other issue which is how many can BA accommodate at LHR. Both T5 and T3 have a very limited number of A380 stands and the BA base has even less. At the moment it is already a change to accommodate the ones they have, even with the new ones replacing B747-400s stands will still be an issue.


When BA ordered the A380, it included 7 options. So BA must have pictured a future where it can accommodate a fleet of 19 A380s at LHR.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
Tedd
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:41 pm

LoganTheBogan wrote:
Considering RR has been the engine choice for all of EKs recent A380s and all of BAs A380s, this could be very good news for RR and if an order is signed then we might see a potential PIP.



Agreed, I doubt EK will deviate from another RR order, but on a future PIP to the T900, wasn`t it suggested that
it`s particular architecture, which dates back some years now, couldn`t improved upon any further? In other
words it`s been PIP`d to the max.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:42 pm

XAM2175 wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
... BA will order more A380's, and that they will launch daily non-stop service to SYD and MEL, giving both EK and QF a run for their money on the kangaroo route. I think that Airbus will help BA for this, as they both must be pretty upset about QF starting ULH using B787's. The PR effect would be huge for both. If BA start the operation, QF would have no choice but to send their B789's elsewhere and cancel any pipe dreams of expanding direct flights using twins.
The current A380 is a bit limited, but with a few modifications, a 2020 premium-heavy A380 could do it. It's the right aircraft for the mission.


Non-stop LHR-SYD/MEL is not possible with current A380s and I doubt it will be possible with a hypothetical future A380 either, as the configuration changes necessary to get the range will give it a capacity barely beyond "useless". Even the A380 Plus, assuming it ever actually gets built, is marketed by Airbus as offering "80 more passenger" at current range (8200 nmi) or "300 nmi" additional range.

As a point of comparison, the only time LHR-SYD has ever been flown non-stop before now was a one-off flight of QF's B747-438 VH-OJA in 1989, and that was only possible with a lot of effort (the aircraft had a full cabin installed but only the forward galley was provisioned, only doors 1L and 1R had the slide-rafts installed, no ULD locks were fitted in the holds, the fuel load was above normal - the volumetric shut-off valves were closed and fuelling continued until it began to overflow from the outboard vents, and it was a special fuel blend as well. The aircraft additionally received an engine-out tow to the runway, carried only twenty-three passengers and crew, and yet still a "FUEL QTY LOW" alert was received during the approach to SYD).

Obviously things have advanced since then but even still, QF's configuration for the B789 as lined up for LHR-PER is pretty premium-heavy at J42 W28 Y166. Not quite as much as BA (F08 J42 W39 Y127) or "I-can't-believe-it's-not-1960" outlier JL (J44 W35 Y116 in v1), but certainly front-heavy compared to AA's J30 W21 Y234 (inc. 36 MCE) and NZ's v1 at J18 W21 Y263.

Plus, as eamondzhang notes;
eamondzhang wrote:
They can't afford to tie up 3 whale jets to one route ... In addition I believe SYD is served by mixed fleet crew currently, while A380s are exclusively crewed by the old long haul guys.


The Kangaroo Route is looooong when it comes to an aircraft utilisation perspective. Combine that with specially-configured aircraft that don't fit the rest of your network and it'll be a bloodbath.

BA have also been pretty open (IIRC) about the fact that moving to the 77W and Mixed Fleet crewing is how they finally made SYD profitable. It's not a question of capacity or allure or anything other than bare economics. QF and BA are both end-of-line carriers playing piggy-in-the-middle in a market where there are at least six "piggies" and they're all pretty damn tall. SQ, CX, QR, EY, and of course EK have excellent networks into both the UK and Australia and the mainland Chinese airlines are working to catch up. QF's strategy here has been to get into bed with EK and offer them Australian domestic feed while using EK's European network to dramatically improve their competitiveness over the old backtrack-from-London approach.

Waterbomber wrote:
Pax would prefer to fly an A380 across the big pond to the Big Apple. It makes sense in terms of customer satisfaction and in terms of $$$ ... I can also see BA bringing back the A380 to Japan ... the WOW factor will bring more Japanese customers to the BA HND flight.


I won't deny the A380-aura is a thing but I think it's a tenuous assumption to make that any carrier is seeing concrete benefit from it. The vast majority of passengers have demonstrated that timing and price drive their spend, not aircraft type. And as I posted earlier, with BA's current configurations the A380 is for the most part an increase in Y seats that then have to be filled, which further diminishes yields for the Y seats they're already flying. An up-gauge for prestige is the airline equivalent of stepping over a pound to pick up a penny.


You think like QF. But they re not doing too well, because well, they dont seem to know what they re doing.
A non-stop LHR-SYD is flyable in about 20 hours for the A380. If it carries full fuel, ie 22 hours of fuel, it still has room for 35 tons of payload in a light OEW configuration.
So it s flyable with a very premium configuration of 350 already today and Airbus can give the plus to make it towards 400 passengers and additional operzting margin.
Also, you dont need 3 aircraft to operate a 20 hour sector route. That s not how airlines operate.
 
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:42 pm

eamondzhang wrote:

In addition I believe SYD is served by mixed fleet crew currently, while A380s are exclusively crewed by the old long haul guys.

Michael


SYD is indeed served by Mixed Fleet crew - on the 77W - but the A380 is not crew exclusively by the 'old long haul guys' (otherwise known as 'Worldwide Fleet' or, more informally, 'Legacy Fleet'). BA flights to JNB, LAX and YVR, among others, are (or have been in the recent past) operated by Mixed Fleet.
 
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:18 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
You think like QF. But they re not doing too well, because well, they dont seem to know what they re doing.


That's a load of nonsense. Do you have anything to back that up

A non-stop LHR-SYD is flyable in about 20 hours for the A380. If it carries full fuel, ie 22 hours of fuel, it still has room for 35 tons of payload in a light OEW configuration.
So it s flyable with a very premium configuration of 350 already today and Airbus can give the plus to make it towards 400 passengers and additional operzting margin.
Also, you dont need 3 aircraft to operate a 20 hour sector route. That s not how airlines operate.


A 350 seat A380 simply wont cut it for QF and I doubt it would work for BA either. As I pointed out in the EK A380 to you QF requires an aircraft that they can use throughout their network, they are not going to configure an aircraft just for 1 or 2 routes. The 778 and A350ulr are the best candidates for this and QF have already been on record on saying that these aircraft are planned to replace aircraft such as the 744ER as well as start ULR routes. Where BA is concerned operating a subfleet of specially configured A380's for one route is a recipe for disaster. It will be inefficient. How do they cope when an aircraft goes tech or requires maintenance? What happens if at the last minute they have to rejiggle A380's due to another one going tech in LAX or SFO or somewhere else

Both BA and QF as of the end of March will both fly SYD-SIN-LHR of which both airlines will have 3 planes dedicated to the route. Both SYD and LHR have curfews and along with favoring business travel, that is late afternoon/evening departure for a early morning arrival which means aircraft will sit on the ground for at least 10 hours and possible up to 15 in between doing the return flight. BA would be better off using additional A380's on routes to the US where they would most likely make more money on that dedicating the 3 airplanes to 1 ULR route
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Planeyguy
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:24 pm

I have a question to ask if BA wanted the A380 why didn't they went for the 748? I mean they have the 744s
 
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:29 pm

XAM2175 wrote:
Remember, this is a route with huge premium demand and yield, but the available capacity across all operators and comparable routings make Y yields far less impressive.

Even if the terminal at JFK could take an A380, up-gauging from the 744 is a 12.8% increase in J capacity (11 more seats), an 83.3% increase in W (25 more seats), and a 109% increase in Y capacity (158 more seats) - and it's that last thing that's exactly what BA don't want. The Super-High-J 744s will own LHR-JFK for as long as they're still presentable and then there'll be a high-J-configured replacement for them.

Thank you for the very informative post, and I concur with your concerns.

TATL is becoming a bloodbath for Y fares.

WW should take a good look at https://www.norwegian.com/en/route-map/ ... stinations and https://www.norwegian.com/en/route-map/ ... stinations and similar such things before deciding to add a few Whale's worth of Y passengers to the market.

Seems to me the announced strategy of efficient 787-10 and A350-10 replacing high cost 747-400s makes more sense.
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:36 pm

XAM2175 wrote:
In specific terms of LHR-JFK for BA, here's a little comparison I put together the last time the topic of the A380 there came up (three weeks ago :/ )

BA CONFIGURATIONS AS AT DEC-2017
A388   F14 J97 W55 Y303
B744   F14 J86 W30 Y145 ("V4"; Super-High-J)
B77W   F14 J56 W44 Y185
B789   F08 J42 W39 Y127


Remember, this is a route with huge premium demand and yield, but the available capacity across all operators and comparable routings make Y yields far less impressive.
Even if the terminal at JFK could take an A380, up-gauging from the 744 is a 12.8% increase in J capacity (11 more seats), an 83.3% increase in W (25 more seats), and a 109% increase in Y capacity (158 more seats) - and it's that last thing that's exactly what BA don't want. The Super-High-J 744s will own LHR-JFK for as long as they're still presentable and then there'll be a high-J-configured replacement for them.

The A380 is more useful - and more profitable - for BA where capacity restrictions translate to decent yields across all cabins.

It is also worth noting that they already have one of the more premium-heavy A380 configurations flying:
BA A388   F14 J97 W55 Y303
KE A388   F12 J94 W-- Y293 or 301
LH A388   F08 J78 W52 Y371
QF A388   F14 J64 W35 Y371
EK A388   F14 J76 W-- Y399 or 427
EY A388   F09 J70 W-- Y415
QR A388   F08 J48 W-- Y461


Thank you XAM2175. Three weeks seems a very long time ago.

It seems to me that there are 4 main issues for IAG-BA.

1. IAG-BA long haul has given up market share over the recent few years, in favours of higher margins. The cash hoard being built as a consequence generates much less than the 15% return on shareholders capital. This cannot continue for ever. Maybe a switch in strategy is in sight. For instance, the offers I am getting on short haul via my Executive Club membership appears to demonstrate that their strategy has already changed in favour of 'hold or gain market share, at the cost of margins'. Also the aggressive addition of slots at LGW and at Vienna via insolvent airlines delivers the same message.

2. IAG-BA long haul is likely to move in the same direction, if it has not done so already. Here the aim is to maintain high load factors, rather than additional destinations. 'Price to Sell' is the message from this winter. The much discussed lack of capacity in terms of LHR slots is a fiction. More to the point is a lack of Long Haul aeroplanes, with the existing balancing of retirements with new.

3. In the long run, the price is, and since the LCC era, will always be important. More important is value in each cabin, and on the ground. This value in the air can be best delivered by purchasing aeroplanes which deliver low cost in terms of the 15% return mentioned earlier. With present low fuel costs and high pilot and crew cost favours larger aeroplanes, which used to be a given. Hence A350 and A380. These are to IAG low risk investments, whether owned outright or leased. The choice of cabin furnishings and level of service in each cabin are tilted to each market, from Premium to cattle class. BA is one end of this spectrum, LEVEL is the other. I guess that the per passenger cost of flying is very low for the A380, probably equal or lower than the A350, when taking into account the 15% return.

4. With additional A380s, IAG is well placed to move BA Long Haul to be the low cost producer in the air, and if they get their value offerings right, the best value producer in the air and on the ground. And thus achieve the switch from high margins at the cost of market share strategy, to a Price to Sell strategy. This implies getting back to a higher growth than previously planned. 1% growth has served its purpose. So I do expect IAG to get onto the front foot with its A380 order with say 15 firm and 10 options, at the rate of between 1 and 2 delivered annually, starting ASAP. In my view, anything less from IAG will invite more new entrants to the Long Haul market.
Last edited by Egerton on Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
Philippine747
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:38 pm

I don't know if this was discussed here, but how is BA doing on their existing A380 ops?
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:41 pm

LHR-JFK is also one of BA’s shortest 747 routes. It makes sense for BA to keep the 747 on the route for as long as they have the fleet and use newer aircraft on longer routes where the fuel savings will have a greater impact.
 
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:41 pm

Planeyguy wrote:
I have a question to ask if BA wanted the A380 why didn't they went for the 748? I mean they have the 744s

They have 744s because they decided to purchase them back in 1986 ( ref: http://www.nytimes.com/1990/07/07/busin ... 747-s.html ).

Back then one bought the 744 not just for size but also for range.

Now you can buy planes with various combinations of size and range, and BA has done just that.

Overall, the 748 has not proven to be a success, and BA's failure to order them has been a big disappointment to Boeing.

The 777-300ER can fly almost as many passengers as 748 for similar distances with more efficiency, and the A380 can fly far more passengers with similar efficiency.

The A350-1000 will be even more efficient than 777-300ER and fly a similar number of passengers.

In short, the 748 is not efficient enough for its size. Its main strength is in cargo, and even there the 777F gives it a lot of competition.
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Whalejet
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:46 pm

I honestly thought BA would go for the 777-9 - do you guys think that proposition is dead now?
 
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:50 pm

Whalejet wrote:
I honestly thought BA would go for the 777-9 - do you guys think that proposition is dead now?


It will not even be considered by IAG until the it moves from being a paper aeroplane to an EIS one.
 
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:52 pm

I think the JFK thing is a bit of a red herring.BA themselves has stated clearly why they don't fly the 380 on this route and many have said it here.If it had been critical to them 10 years ago they would have applied huge pressure to ensure their gate was made compatible.
The reason they took out those options was because they could use the additional 6-7 a/c on other 744 route and still can (will?).

Of the routes they could/would like to fly it ,only one - Cape Town is not available as they keep on delaying on the runway realignment.So the 744 will have to do here and will continue to be used on the NY run.
Btw the 744 is still a nice a/c to fly on if properly refurbished.Upstairs biz was possibly my favourite place to fly.
 
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:10 pm

Revelation wrote:
The 777-300ER can fly almost as many passengers as 748 for similar distances with more efficiency.

I highly doubt that. It probably has lower trip cost but if it had lower CASM there would be no incentive at all to buy the 748.
 
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:37 pm

Philippine747 wrote:
I don't know if this was discussed here, but how is BA doing on their existing A380 ops?


In what context?

All the flights I have been on have been full. But this is expected due to the nature of the routes they fly.

Although the one destination I find quite odd is YVR....
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Philippine747
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:41 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Philippine747 wrote:
I don't know if this was discussed here, but how is BA doing on their existing A380 ops?


In what context?

All the flights I have been on have been full. But this is expected due to the nature of the routes they fly.

Although the one destination I find quite odd is YVR....


Sorry if my post wasn't clear, I was referring to reliability and passenger loads...
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:46 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The 777-300ER can fly almost as many passengers as 748 for similar distances with more efficiency.

I highly doubt that. It probably has lower trip cost but if it had lower CASM there would be no incentive at all to buy the 748.

Unless your margins were tiny, there definitely would be an incentive if more people wanted to fly than you could fit into the 77W. CASM (or, more accurately, the factors that are used to calculate CASM) is only a part of the equation. Airlines seek the largest overall profits, not the best margins.
 
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:05 pm

Egerton wrote:
Whalejet wrote:
I honestly thought BA would go for the 777-9 - do you guys think that proposition is dead now?


It will not even be considered by IAG until the it moves from being a paper aeroplane to an EIS one.


Really? If IAG did have such a policy, why did BA order A350-1000s and 787-10s before either had even flown?
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:24 pm

Planeyguy wrote:
I have a question to ask if BA wanted the A380 why didn't they went for the 748? I mean they have the 744s

There were a few threads about this back in 2007 when the decision was in the works and eventuallly made.
viewtopic.php?t=458501
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=472029
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=474027&p=6664183&hilit=ba+a380#p6664183
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=472443&p=6628345&hilit=ba+a380#p6628345

Generally, only three airlines went for (and stuck with) the 747-8i, despite the once massive base of 747s in fleets around the world.
Many didn't go for either the 747-8i or A380, but the vast majority of those who actually did look at the 747-8i and A380 went for the A380. Two out of three 747-8i airline customers actually went for the A380 as well. So BA isn't really an outlier in going for the A380 over the 747-8i.
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KarelXWB
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:37 pm

One of the reasons BA didn't order the 747-8i:

IAG's Willie Walsh said British Airways picked A380 over 747-8 in 2007 because of a poor relationship with GE.


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CRHoward
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:43 pm

The neo appears to be pushed out to at least 2029. Could this affect BA's decision? Four more years of making do with the current fleet may be too long. Also the further out the neo is pushed the more likely it is eclipsed by the next generation of aircraft. Buying the a380ceo now is a sure thing. The a380neo is not. IMO BA's decision has now been made a whole lot easier.
 
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:54 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
One of the reasons BA didn't order the 747-8i:

IAG's Willie Walsh said British Airways picked A380 over 747-8 in 2007 because of a poor relationship with GE.


https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 3739657216

This is one reason I suspect the 779 might not be seen in BA's colors. :( Or IAG for that matter due to the importance of a shared fleet buying strategy. Oh well, the A380s gain.


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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:16 pm

I would not be surprised that Airbus is trying to talk BA into buying more A380's--my guess as many as 20 planes. Why? Because of the continuing congestion situation at London area airports and to replace all the 747-400's that BA now has earlier.
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