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Strato2
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:18 pm

Revelation wrote:
The 777-300ER can fly almost as many passengers as 748 for similar distances with more efficiency, and the A380 can fly far more passengers with similar efficiency.


You displaced "more efficiency" and "similar efficiency". It's an apples to space shuttles comparison if you put 10-abreast at both the 777 and the A380.
 
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par13del
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:36 pm

With BA having such a poor relationship with GE I wonder why they took 777W's as compensation for delayed 787's, ah well, I guess it would not be a shock if as soon as the A350-1000 arrive they get rid of the 777W's.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:43 pm

par13del wrote:
So the pax traffic between CDG and JFK is comparable to LHR and JFK?


Yep, in fact it's far higher. LHR to JFK is the biggest EU to US route and 2nd largest EU to non EU route, only behind LHR - DXB
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JamesCousins
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:50 pm

parapente wrote:
I think the JFK thing is a bit of a red herring.BA themselves has stated clearly why they don't fly the 380 on this route and many have said it here.If it had been critical to them 10 years ago they would have applied huge pressure to ensure their gate was made compatible.
The reason they took out those options was because they could use the additional 6-7 a/c on other 744 route and still can (will?).

Of the routes they could/would like to fly it ,only one - Cape Town is not available as they keep on delaying on the runway realignment.So the 744 will have to do here and will continue to be used on the NY run.
Btw the 744 is still a nice a/c to fly on if properly refurbished.Upstairs biz was possibly my favourite place to fly.


It's just so loud (in comparison to the 787 or 380) and the window size makes a huge difference imo.
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cv990Coronado
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:51 pm

JamesCousins wrote:
par13del wrote:
So the pax traffic between CDG and JFK is comparable to LHR and JFK?


Yep, in fact it's far higher. LHR to JFK is the biggest EU to US route and 2nd largest EU to non EU route, only behind LHR - DXB


Maybe, if BA changed certain strategies and had more/bigger LH aircraft LHRDXB would be number 2 or even lower as most of the LHRDXB traffic is going on to XXX.
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frigatebird
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:53 pm

Cool, how many will BA take you think? The Bloomberg article says they were in the market for six to seven second-hand A380s, now considering taking a larger number of new ones. 8-10 perhaps. Could surely make things easier for Airbus to produce 8-10 A380s per year, getting at least something more than just breaking even on produced frames. Seemed BA was indeed a bit short on A380s, shoving them around a bit on their routes. The EK order enables Airbus to produce a few additional ones for BA. I think the options BA had on 7 A380s have already lapsed, with the A380 production decrease.

Whalejet wrote:
I honestly thought BA would go for the 777-9 - do you guys think that proposition is dead now?

Well, when Boeing deliberated way too long with EK about the specs of the 777X and waited too long with ATO, Airbus came in with a great offer for the A35K and since then the prospects of a 777X with BA were barely alive. With BA ordering more A380s I would say yes, BA's future fleet will be 787, A350 and A380, the 777X is surely dead now for BA.

KarelXWB wrote:
One of the reasons BA didn't order the 747-8i:

IAG's Willie Walsh said British Airways picked A380 over 747-8 in 2007 because of a poor relationship with GE.


https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 3739657216


Well that surely didn't help the cause for the 777X with BA either.
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Arion640
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:34 pm

par13del wrote:
I guess it would not be a shock if as soon as the A350-1000 arrive they get rid of the 777W's.


No chance.
 
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par13del
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:37 pm

Well the 777W is all GE and if their relationship is that bad......
 
Turnhouse1
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:23 pm

cv990Coronado wrote:
JamesCousins wrote:
par13del wrote:
So the pax traffic between CDG and JFK is comparable to LHR and JFK?


Yep, in fact it's far higher. LHR to JFK is the biggest EU to US route and 2nd largest EU to non EU route, only behind LHR - DXB


Maybe, if BA changed certain strategies and had more/bigger LH aircraft LHRDXB would be number 2 or even lower as most of the LHRDXB traffic is going on to XXX.


More likely BA operate a A380s to DOH and connect onto QR. They probably need a token presence in DXB but they're never going to win on that route so no point expending too much effort. What would be interesting is if they operated an A380s as a code share through DOH to SYD & MEL, which would get round the limited landing rights QR have in Australia. The planes could be filled up with transfer passengers from the rest of Europe, and drop off some passengers for QR to take to India etc.
 
Tedd
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:25 pm

par13del wrote:
Well the 777W is all GE and if their relationship is that bad......



I doubt the relationship BA has with GE is all that bad. Leaving aside problems with the GE-90 in the early days which
were well sorted eventually ( it was a new engine after all, & problems can occur after EIS ) it wouldn`t have been too
much trouble for them to assimilate the higher powered version. Wouldn`t have BA been far more peeved at Boeing`s lack
of respect in not offering the B777-ER with a choice of RR knowing their preference for the type, & being the worlds
largest operator of the B777 into the bargain. Isn`t it the reason they didn`t order far more -ER`s, & why they haven`t
chosen B777X-9? Whatever others opinions, ( as I could be wrong ) the fact is they`ve gone A350-1000, & part of the attraction
will be the RR motors. Airlines like a choice, & likewise A350 could be hampered in it`s sales for not doing the same.
 
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anfromme
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:57 pm

lightsaber wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
One of the reasons BA didn't order the 747-8i:

IAG's Willie Walsh said British Airways picked A380 over 747-8 in 2007 because of a poor relationship with GE.


https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 3739657216

This is one reason I suspect the 779 might not be seen in BA's colors. :( Or IAG for that matter due to the importance of a shared fleet buying strategy. Oh well, the A380s gain.

par13del wrote:
With BA having such a poor relationship with GE I wonder why they took 777W's as compensation for delayed 787's, ah well, I guess it would not be a shock if as soon as the A350-1000 arrive they get rid of the 777W's.


That whole GE/BA thing seems to be one of those a.net myths that refuses to die.
There may have been some truth to it at some point, but it's clearly no longer a real factor.

Remember the GE/BA thing was one of the reasons widely believed to mean that BA would never, ever in a million trillion years operate the 777-300ER.
Oh, wait.
Back in June 2017, IAG placed an order for 110 CFM LEAP for 55 of their NEOs. Some others (I think about 20) get the GTF.
So it's not like they aren't on speaking terms with GE, nor is GE engine exclusivity on a type a showstopper criterion for IAG, nor do they necessarily go for the non-GE engine when they have a choice.
That also serves as a qualifier for the "shared fleet buying" - BA and IB are going to use those CFMs, while Vueling gets GTFs on their NEOs.
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RichardWelling
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:01 pm

Turnhouse1 wrote:
cv990Coronado wrote:
JamesCousins wrote:

Yep, in fact it's far higher. LHR to JFK is the biggest EU to US route and 2nd largest EU to non EU route, only behind LHR - DXB


Maybe, if BA changed certain strategies and had more/bigger LH aircraft LHRDXB would be number 2 or even lower as most of the LHRDXB traffic is going on to XXX.


More likely BA operate a A380s to DOH and connect onto QR. They probably need a token presence in DXB but they're never going to win on that route so no point expending too much effort. What would be interesting is if they operated an A380s as a code share through DOH to SYD & MEL, which would get round the limited landing rights QR have in Australia. The planes could be filled up with transfer passengers from the rest of Europe, and drop off some passengers for QR to take to India etc.


Thats what exactly will happen.
 
Arion640
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:02 pm

par13del wrote:
Well the 777W is all GE and if their relationship is that bad......


A. It can’t be that bad because GE Aviation in Cardiff overhauls all the RB211s for BA.

B. They had GE powered 777-200ERs long before they had GE powered 77Ws

C. The youngest 77W is 2014 built and are extremely useful to BA such as exclusively on the SYD route. They aren’t going anywhere until the age clock ticks potentially even 30.
 
Geoff1947
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:02 pm

Just to be clear, I hope BA do change their plans and buy more A380s. I will be interested in how they justify this to their shareholders. It will be more complex than deciding to replace some old 747s.

Geoff
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:38 pm

Geoff1947 wrote:
Just to be clear, I hope BA do change their plans and buy more A380s. I will be interested in how they justify this to their shareholders. It will be more complex than deciding to replace some old 747s.

Geoff


Surely it's fairly easy to justify to shareholders, 'we are based at the worlds most slot constrained airport and with our, until recently, largest planes leaving the fleet (the 744) in large quantities, we need to up-gauge some routes, hence the 380s.' I know shareholders don't like particularly large, somewhat risky purchases, but it isn't like BA aren't doing very well financially :D
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Egerton
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:51 pm

scbriml wrote:
Egerton wrote:
Whalejet wrote:
I honestly thought BA would go for the 777-9 - do you guys think that proposition is dead now?


It will not even be considered by IAG until the it moves from being a paper aeroplane to an EIS one.


Really? If IAG did have such a policy, why did BA order A350-1000s and 787-10s before either had even flown?


Thanks Scbriml. What a strange question. I used the term EIS, not your 'flown'

Because a small stretch of the existing A350-900 had an upgraded RR engine, and a small stretch of the existing 787-8 and -9 had an upgraded RR engine.

The 777-9 by comparison is a major development with a completely new wing and completely new engines, none of which have flown yet.

The risk of the latter is greatly more than of the former pair. IAG is slow to take up on completely new engines and completely new wings.
 
Egerton
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:05 pm

Arion640 wrote:
par13del wrote:
Well the 777W is all GE and if their relationship is that bad......


A. It can’t be that bad because GE Aviation in Cardiff overhauls all the RB211s for BA.

B. They had GE powered 777-200ERs long before they had GE powered 77Ws

C. The youngest 77W is 2014 built and are extremely useful to BA such as exclusively on the SYD route. They aren’t going anywhere until the age clock ticks potentially even 30.


Interesting, but I hold a different view.
1. GE sold BA (or were they still BOAC?) dreadful engines for the initial 777 and part of the deal was for GE to take the engine repair facility in Wales off the airlines hands. These first GE engines were a disgrace and the support ditto.
2. Have you noticed that two brand new GE engines on IB A330 have failed on their first commercial flights, and had to be removed from the wing in the US.
Last edited by Egerton on Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:07 pm

par13del wrote:
With BA having such a poor relationship with GE I wonder why they took 777W's as compensation for delayed 787's, ah well, I guess it would not be a shock if as soon as the A350-1000 arrive they get rid of the 777W's.


Arion640 wrote:
No chance.


Half of BA's original batch of eight are leased frames, there's a very good chance they will leave the fleet comparatively early.

Egerton wrote:
What a strange question. I used the term EIS, not your 'flown'


No, not strange at all. I purposely said "flown" as that's an even earlier point in the process than EIS.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Egerton
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:17 pm

scbriml wrote:
par13del wrote:
With BA having such a poor relationship with GE I wonder why they took 777W's as compensation for delayed 787's, ah well, I guess it would not be a shock if as soon as the A350-1000 arrive they get rid of the 777W's.


Arion640 wrote:
No chance.


Half of BA's original batch of eight are leased frames, there's a very good chance they will leave the fleet comparatively early.

Egerton wrote:
What a strange question. I used the term EIS, not your 'flown'


No, not strange at all. I purposely said "flown" as that's an even earlier point in the process than EIS.


On the issue of "Half of BA's original batch of eight are leased frames, there's a very good chance they will leave the fleet comparatively early.", I beg to differ.
IAG are currently running some BA 747-400s, IB A346 and EI A330 which are old, and currently intend to do the same with BAs small 777s. I suggest that this demonstrates that IAG has a policy of keeping their aeroplanes a long time or a very long time, like Delta. Why should the A380s be any different?
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:26 pm

pegasus1 wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:

In addition I believe SYD is served by mixed fleet crew currently, while A380s are exclusively crewed by the old long haul guys.

Michael


SYD is indeed served by Mixed Fleet crew - on the 77W - but the A380 is not crew exclusively by the 'old long haul guys' (otherwise known as 'Worldwide Fleet' or, more informally, 'Legacy Fleet'). BA flights to JNB, LAX and YVR, among others, are (or have been in the recent past) operated by Mixed Fleet.

Thanks for the correction. Always thought A380 was for the Worldwide fleet only :duck:

Waterbomber wrote:
You think like QF. But they re not doing too well, because well, they dont seem to know what they re doing.

Not doing too well when posting $1 billion upwards' profit? You have absolutely no idea about what you're talking.

Waterbomber wrote:
Also, you dont need 3 aircraft to operate a 20 hour sector route. That s not how airlines operate.

You don't need 3 a/c to operate a 20hr sector, but you do when you factor in curfews at both LHR and SYD, preferred travel time, and stopovers. Have you ever bothered checking the schedule of QF1/2 and BA15/16? I bet you not, or otherwise you won't blow this nonsense. No plane can fly LHR-SYD non-stop profitably right now, no matter it's 787, 772LR, A380, A345, whatever. Forget about this. You have to stop somewhere.

Waterbomber wrote:
A non-stop LHR-SYD is flyable in about 20 hours for the A380. If it carries full fuel, ie 22 hours of fuel, it still has room for 35 tons of payload in a light OEW configuration.
So it s flyable with a very premium configuration of 350 already today and Airbus can give the plus to make it towards 400 passengers and additional operzting margin.

Please show me evidences that A380 can carry 35 tons of payload and fly the 9200 nautical miles between SYD and LHR. This is certainly not what Airbus said in their payload-range chart. You can't bother to check your facts, so what's the point of posting these nonsense here?

Michael
 
Arion640
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:08 pm

Egerton wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
par13del wrote:
Well the 777W is all GE and if their relationship is that bad......


A. It can’t be that bad because GE Aviation in Cardiff overhauls all the RB211s for BA.

B. They had GE powered 777-200ERs long before they had GE powered 77Ws

C. The youngest 77W is 2014 built and are extremely useful to BA such as exclusively on the SYD route. They aren’t going anywhere until the age clock ticks potentially even 30.


Interesting, but I hold a different view.
1. GE sold BA (or were they still BOAC?) dreadful engines for the initial 777 and part of the deal was for GE to take the engine repair facility in Wales off the airlines hands. These first GE engines were a disgrace and the support ditto.
2. Have you noticed that two brand new GE engines on IB A330 have failed on their first commercial flights, and had to be removed from the wing in the US.


I think it was an 80/90's sale so still BA. 1994 sticks in my head for some reason, I may be wrong though.

Doesn't mean anything - engine failures/explosions and issues happen to all engine manufacturers over time.

Back to the original point however, these 77W's are going nowhere anytime soon.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:19 pm

Just to add my 2 cents, I see a BA A380 order of upto 12 (more likely 4-8) very likely this year, with BA choosing to up-gauge some of the 744 routes as they leave the fleet and downsize some of them to A35K's (although I don't think it's as much of a capacity drop as people seem to believe)

Would love to know whether people see any going to IB or EI, although I don't believe DUB is 380 compatible, and this would be a HUGE capacity jump from what they already have...
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY // Upcoming: W6 A320, W6 A321, EVA 77W, VS 787-9m AS A320, VS A35K, KLM E190, KLM 738, LS 737
 
Turnhouse1
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:36 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Egerton wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

A. It can’t be that bad because GE Aviation in Cardiff overhauls all the RB211s for BA.

B. They had GE powered 777-200ERs long before they had GE powered 77Ws

C. The youngest 77W is 2014 built and are extremely useful to BA such as exclusively on the SYD route. They aren’t going anywhere until the age clock ticks potentially even 30.


Interesting, but I hold a different view.
1. GE sold BA (or were they still BOAC?) dreadful engines for the initial 777 and part of the deal was for GE to take the engine repair facility in Wales off the airlines hands. These first GE engines were a disgrace and the support ditto.
2. Have you noticed that two brand new GE engines on IB A330 have failed on their first commercial flights, and had to be removed from the wing in the US.


I think it was an 80/90's sale so still BA. 1994 sticks in my head for some reason, I may be wrong though.

Doesn't mean anything - engine failures/explosions and issues happen to all engine manufacturers over time.

Back to the original point however, these 77W's are going nowhere anytime soon.


BA have 3 77As they want rid of, they have 4 744s G-BNL_ series which are rather long in the tooth, is suspect these aren't long for this world. The 77Es and 77Ws are doing a job and for IAG accountants, the only good plane is a plane that is fully depreciated. Therefore the 77Es will be around until they become a maintenance liability. What I can see is that BA take the 787-10s and the first 18 A350-1000s, but the 18 further A 350-100s (IAG options) become 10 A350 and 8 A380 or some similar combination. The 77W is a good plane at the moment, however, once the A350s are in, a leased 77W may become less attractive than it is currently,.
 
airzona11
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:42 pm

keesje wrote:
It is a global market. If EK didn't have 100 A380s and 150 77W's , BA would have more than 12 A380's.


Why? BA is profitable. They have ~1 A380 for every 4 747s. The A380 works for them where they are deployed. Airlines the world over are downsizing plane size. BA is replacing 747s currently with smaller planes.

Maybe they will order more, likely from options. But they will always be operated in small numbers. What routes does BA fly the A380 where they only have 1 daily flight?
 
Arion640
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:47 pm

Turnhouse1 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Egerton wrote:

Interesting, but I hold a different view.
1. GE sold BA (or were they still BOAC?) dreadful engines for the initial 777 and part of the deal was for GE to take the engine repair facility in Wales off the airlines hands. These first GE engines were a disgrace and the support ditto.
2. Have you noticed that two brand new GE engines on IB A330 have failed on their first commercial flights, and had to be removed from the wing in the US.


I think it was an 80/90's sale so still BA. 1994 sticks in my head for some reason, I may be wrong though.

Doesn't mean anything - engine failures/explosions and issues happen to all engine manufacturers over time.

Back to the original point however, these 77W's are going nowhere anytime soon.


BA have 3 77As they want rid of, they have 4 744s G-BNL_ series which are rather long in the tooth, is suspect these aren't long for this world. The 77Es and 77Ws are doing a job and for IAG accountants, the only good plane is a plane that is fully depreciated. Therefore the 77Es will be around until they become a maintenance liability. What I can see is that BA take the 787-10s and the first 18 A350-1000s, but the 18 further A 350-100s (IAG options) become 10 A350 and 8 A380 or some similar combination. The 77W is a good plane at the moment, however, once the A350s are in, a leased 77W may become less attractive than it is currently,.


The A350 options don't need to become A380 options. They still hold 7 A380 options.
 
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anfromme
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:03 am

Egerton wrote:
On the issue of "Half of BA's original batch of eight are leased frames, there's a very good chance they will leave the fleet comparatively early.", I beg to differ.
IAG are currently running some BA 747-400s, IB A346 and EI A330 which are old, and currently intend to do the same with BAs small 777s. I suggest that this demonstrates that IAG has a policy of keeping their aeroplanes a long time or a very long time, like Delta. Why should the A380s be any different?

I think scbriml was talking about BA's 77W, not their A380s. None of BA's A380s are leased from what I can find, while half of their 77W fleet is leased, i.e. they could indeed get rid of at least half their 77W fleet at pretty short notice. That said - what about the other half? BA have a history of flying aircraft to the end of their useful life, or very close. In two years' time, the resale value of those 77W isn't going to be great any more, so just keeping the fleet might just be the sensible choice.

Turnhouse1 wrote:
What I can see is that BA take the 787-10s and the first 18 A350-1000s, but the 18 further A 350-100s (IAG options) become 10 A350 and 8 A380 or some similar combination.

No need to slice and dice like that, as BA still hold 7 options on the A380.
And they'd definitely hae a need for 18 rather than just 10 A3510. They have 36 744s still left, even with 18 A3510 and another 7 A380, they still need a few more planes (A350/A380/777/787) on top to cover all their 747 replacement needs.
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TedToToe
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:27 am

Arion640 wrote:
Philippine747 wrote:
I don't know if this was discussed here, but how is BA doing on their existing A380 ops?


In what context?

All the flights I have been on have been full. But this is expected due to the nature of the routes they fly.

Although the one destination I find quite odd is YVR....

YVR is an A380 in summer because of an increase in leisure passengers. Prior to the introduction of A380, it required 10 services per week, so no surprise really that the A380 is deployed there.
 
Philippine747
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:45 am

TedToToe wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Philippine747 wrote:
I don't know if this was discussed here, but how is BA doing on their existing A380 ops?


In what context?

All the flights I have been on have been full. But this is expected due to the nature of the routes they fly.

Although the one destination I find quite odd is YVR....

YVR is an A380 in summer because of an increase in leisure passengers. Prior to the introduction of A380, it required 10 services per week, so no surprise really that the A380 is deployed there.

What about the Asian routes, like HKG and SIN?
A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 AT75 AT76 B732 B733 B738 B744 B752(M) B763 B772 B77W DHC7 DH8C DH8D D328 MA60

2P 5J 6K CX DG EK GA KE MI PR VN OS QR A3 OK TG RA U4 JL GK UB K7 WE BR
 
NichCage
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:54 am

So if I'm correct, BA flies the A380 to MIA, SFO, LAX, JNB and HKG?

Still, another good boost for the program. I'm sure there are a couple of other routes the A380 could add capacity for BA considering how busy LHR is.
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:30 am

NichCage wrote:
So if I'm correct, BA flies the A380 to MIA, SFO, LAX, JNB and HKG?


And SIN on the non LHR-SIN-SYD flight
 
YKF
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:48 am

How likely is BA to send the a380 to YYZ, should they go ahead and purchase additional a380s?
 
Arion640
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:24 am

NichCage wrote:
So if I'm correct, BA flies the A380 to MIA, SFO, LAX, JNB and HKG?

Still, another good boost for the program. I'm sure there are a couple of other routes the A380 could add capacity for BA considering how busy LHR is.


YVR must be returning in/before March as a friend has told me he's flying it.

ORD coming in May too.
 
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TedToToe
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:22 am

Arion640 wrote:
NichCage wrote:
So if I'm correct, BA flies the A380 to MIA, SFO, LAX, JNB and HKG?

Still, another good boost for the program. I'm sure there are a couple of other routes the A380 could add capacity for BA considering how busy LHR is.


YVR must be returning in/before March as a friend has told me he's flying it.

ORD coming in May too.

Indeed, YVR is summer seasonal on the A380, with MIA being the opposite. Also, this winter JNB increased to x2 daily with LAX reducing to a single flight daily and SFO x3 per week. I would expect the S18 schedule to be:
HKG, SIN, JNB, YVR, SFO, x2 LAX and ORD.
 
Arion640
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:35 am

TedToToe wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
NichCage wrote:
So if I'm correct, BA flies the A380 to MIA, SFO, LAX, JNB and HKG?

Still, another good boost for the program. I'm sure there are a couple of other routes the A380 could add capacity for BA considering how busy LHR is.


YVR must be returning in/before March as a friend has told me he's flying it.

ORD coming in May too.

Indeed, YVR is summer seasonal on the A380, with MIA being the opposite. Also, this winter JNB increased to x2 daily with LAX reducing to a single flight daily and SFO x3 per week. I would expect the S18 schedule to be:
HKG, SIN, JNB, YVR, SFO, x2 LAX and ORD.


No IAD or BOS then, shame.
 
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speedbored
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:40 am

airzona11 wrote:
Airlines the world over are downsizing plane size.

No they are not - average aircraft size has been increasing every year for ~30 years now.
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:41 am

TedToToe wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
NichCage wrote:
So if I'm correct, BA flies the A380 to MIA, SFO, LAX, JNB and HKG?

Still, another good boost for the program. I'm sure there are a couple of other routes the A380 could add capacity for BA considering how busy LHR is.


YVR must be returning in/before March as a friend has told me he's flying it.

ORD coming in May too.

Indeed, YVR is summer seasonal on the A380, with MIA being the opposite. Also, this winter JNB increased to x2 daily with LAX reducing to a single flight daily and SFO x3 per week. I would expect the S18 schedule to be: HKG, SIN, JNB, YVR, SFO, x2 LAX and ORD.


Assuming they just filled the "gaps" in the current schedule to SFO, LAX and ORD, not to mention BOS and IAD would be 4-5 aircraft alone. The 18 (or is it 23, Im not quite clear on that) Super-Hi-J 744s will be the last to leave the fleet, but not before 2022, based on current public plans. The current Lo-J aircraft will be replaced one-for-one by the A350, the configuration is unknown yet, but expected to be similar to the Lo-J 744s, maybe with a small loss of Y seats. These are expected to be seen on CPT/DEN/LAS/off-peak JFK, etc.

BA needs to make a decision on what will replace these 744s - it might be A32x for all we know, but frame-for-frame they will be replaced. BA won't give up their slots. Clearly BA is shopping for wide bodies, around 18-20 of them. I could imagine an order for 8-12 A380s and a similar number of A350s.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:07 am

Arion640 wrote:
par13del wrote:
I guess it would not be a shock if as soon as the A350-1000 arrive they get rid of the 777W's.


No chance.


Agreed. They have a super low average age and some are owned outright, thus no leasing costs. BA will most likely run these birds til 20 or 30 years old, unless the 350 shows incredible fuel savings in which case they may get rid of the leased 77W's, but that's a long way off yet anyway
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY // Upcoming: W6 A320, W6 A321, EVA 77W, VS 787-9m AS A320, VS A35K, KLM E190, KLM 738, LS 737
 
Andy33
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:08 am

BrianDromey wrote:
Assuming they just filled the "gaps" in the current schedule to SFO, LAX and ORD, not to mention BOS and IAD would be 4-5 aircraft alone. The 18 (or is it 23, Im not quite clear on that) Super-Hi-J 744s will be the last to leave the fleet, but not before 2022, based on current public plans. The current Lo-J aircraft will be replaced one-for-one by the A350, the configuration is unknown yet, but expected to be similar to the Lo-J 744s, maybe with a small loss of Y seats. These are expected to be seen on CPT/DEN/LAS/off-peak JFK, etc.

BA needs to make a decision on what will replace these 744s - it might be A32x for all we know, but frame-for-frame they will be replaced. BA won't give up their slots. Clearly BA is shopping for wide bodies, around 18-20 of them. I could imagine an order for 8-12 A380s and a similar number of A350s.

Right now there are 36 744s, 18 with 86 J seats, recently refurbished, and 18 with 52 J seats. BA's most recent announcement (November 2017) was that 24 of the 744s would leave the fleet by the end of 2022, being replaced by A350-1000s and 787-10s that are already on order. There are currently no orders for delivery 2023 or later.

The 744 is to leave the fleet altogether by February 2024. So they need to order 12 planes to be delivered during 2023. Options exist for 787s (type unspecified), A388s, and A350s (in large numbers, held by IAG rather than BA). If they make a reasonably quick decision, they should be able to convert options on any, or a mix, of these types and get them delivered in 2023. The A388s would require an increased production rate to manage it if 12 were ordered all for delivery in the same year, but this seems entirely possible.

BA will also do a light refurb on a few of the 18 52J unrefurbished 744s, but not all of them. We don;t know if the configuration will change on these, or not.
A350-1000 and 787-10 deliveries are phased between 2019 and 2022, so some 744s will disappear each year, with some of the earliest maybe even leaving at the end of this summer's timetable.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:08 am

speedbored wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
Airlines the world over are downsizing plane size.

No they are not - average aircraft size has been increasing every year for ~30 years now.


:yes:

While an airline replacing 747s with smaller, more efficient planes grabs the headlines here, the growth in average plane size is being driven from the bottom end up. MD-80s, 737-300s & 700s are being replaced by A320s, 737-800s or MAX8s, 767s are making way for 787s and the ever-increasing number of A321s being delivered are all pushing the average size upwards. I don't see that trend changing any time soon.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Andy33
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:13 am

I agree, and there were/are a lot more of the small narrowbodies being replaced by larger narrowbodies, and they tend to do multiple sectors a day, whereas most of the large widebodies do no more than a round trip or a single sector per day, so the impact on available seats is greater from upscaling the narrowbodies.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:14 am

scbriml wrote:
speedbored wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
Airlines the world over are downsizing plane size.

No they are not - average aircraft size has been increasing every year for ~30 years now.


:yes:

While an airline replacing 747s with smaller, more efficient planes grabs the headlines here, the growth in average plane size is being driven from the bottom end up. MD-80s, 737-300s & 700s are being replaced by A320s, 737-800s or MAX8s, 767s are making way for 787s and the ever-increasing number of A321s being delivered are all pushing the average size upwards. I don't see that trend changing any time soon.


Maybe in the next 10 years that trend will stretch to the wide-body end of things in a significant enough way to boost 380 demand and sales. We can only hope, it's such a fantastic plane - marvel of engineering
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY // Upcoming: W6 A320, W6 A321, EVA 77W, VS 787-9m AS A320, VS A35K, KLM E190, KLM 738, LS 737
 
Egerton
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:21 am

Arion640 wrote:
Egerton wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

A. It can’t be that bad because GE Aviation in Cardiff overhauls all the RB211s for BA.

B. They had GE powered 777-200ERs long before they had GE powered 77Ws

C. The youngest 77W is 2014 built and are extremely useful to BA such as exclusively on the SYD route. They aren’t going anywhere until the age clock ticks potentially even 30.


Interesting, but I hold a different view.
1. GE sold BA (or were they still BOAC?) dreadful engines for the initial 777 and part of the deal was for GE to take the engine repair facility in Wales off the airlines hands. These first GE engines were a disgrace and the support ditto.
2. Have you noticed that two brand new GE engines on IB A330 have failed on their first commercial flights, and had to be removed from the wing in the US.


I think it was an 80/90's sale so still BA. 1994 sticks in my head for some reason, I may be wrong though.

Doesn't mean anything - engine failures/explosions and issues happen to all engine manufacturers over time.

Back to the original point however, these 77W's are going nowhere anytime soon.


Agreed, the 777W are not going anywhere soon.
 
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speedbored
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:47 am

scbriml wrote:
While an airline replacing 747s with smaller, more efficient planes grabs the headlines here, the growth in average plane size is being driven from the bottom end up. MD-80s, 737-300s & 700s are being replaced by A320s, 737-800s or MAX8s, 767s are making way for 787s and the ever-increasing number of A321s being delivered are all pushing the average size upwards. I don't see that trend changing any time soon.

One thing that most people don't seem to realise is that, in typical airline configurations, a 77W or 3510 is pretty much a straight swap for a 744. The 744 has many issues with cabin shape that make it difficult to fully utilise the space. Long straight tubes are more efficient space-wise.

Look at BA's seating plans, for a good example. Their 77W has as many seats as, or more than, two of their three 744 configurations.
 
Tedd
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:52 am

scbriml wrote:
speedbored wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
Airlines the world over are downsizing plane size.

No they are not - average aircraft size has been increasing every year for ~30 years now.


:yes:

While an airline replacing 747s with smaller, more efficient planes grabs the headlines here, the growth in average plane size is being driven from the bottom end up. MD-80s, 737-300s & 700s are being replaced by A320s, 737-800s or MAX8s, 767s are making way for 787s and the ever-increasing number of A321s being delivered are all pushing the average size upwards. I don't see that trend changing any time soon.


Good point, a win-win for the airlines, more capacity & better efficiency. Why aren`t fares coming down :)
 
Egerton
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:06 am

Are we generally spending too much energy on this thread while forgetting that:

1. Airbus need to fill the production line every year to the point where an A380 neo comes along. So orders of a few for early delivery will be of only limited help. Who knows where EK will be in 10 years time? They are not a blue chip firm, are they?

2. Every year the number of passengers world wide increases, usually in relation to world gross national product. Economics is a just branch of archaeology, attaching plausible explanations to found objects, but any growth in demand for air travel is cumulative, so by the time of the A380 neo comes along, there will be a need for a great deal of new aeroplanes including big ones.

Hence my post #135.
 
Arion640
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:39 am

Egerton wrote:
Are we generally spending too much energy on this thread while forgetting that:

They are not a blue chip firm, are they?



No, they have a far greater asset, the Dubai Government.
 
GDB
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:43 am

To add what as said before, the 77W only came into BA's fleet as part of Boeing's grovel package with it's PR/BS led effort that was the early 787 program and it's delays.
It was not ordered before or when we also brought A380's and 787's (announced same day in 2007).

In 1992 GE brought BA's engine overhaul plant in Wales as part of a package to get the GE-90 on to BA's initial 777's.
Many here know that was not a happy experience, also the now GE owned overhaul plant's performance and quality was less than stellar under it's new management.

Subsequent 777's ordered by BA were RR powered, many say it's because BA around this time (1998) had cancelled some 747-400 and 767-300's all RR powered.
However, we had to modify the GE powered ones for certain hot and high fields, one in particular so this was known as the Denver Bump.
Another black mark against GE.

The recent NEO A320 order is in part GE, however this was an IAG wide buy, BA are only getting 35 of them.
When it was placed PW were having problems with their NEO engine.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:57 am

eamondzhang wrote:

Waterbomber wrote:
A non-stop LHR-SYD is flyable in about 20 hours for the A380. If it carries full fuel, ie 22 hours of fuel, it still has room for 35 tons of payload in a light OEW configuration.
So it s flyable with a very premium configuration of 350 already today and Airbus can give the plus to make it towards 400 passengers and additional operzting margin.

Please show me evidences that A380 can carry 35 tons of payload and fly the 9200 nautical miles between SYD and LHR. This is certainly not what Airbus said in their payload-range chart. You can't bother to check your facts, so what's the point of posting these nonsense here?

Michael


I know what I talk about.

Posted by Keesje a while ago:

By the way, SYD-LHR is 9200NM great circle.

Image

Yes, QF is profitable now because of fleet and network decisions made in the past, long before the current CEO. Part of that decision is to operate 22 VLA's. These are the rainmakers in QF's fleet.
The QF B789 ULH operations are going to eat into that profit starting this year. "Forward bookings are good" said the CEO, but what everyone failed to pick up is the devil in the detail. He actually said "in economy class". Unfortunately, these ULH routes are nothing without more than decent loads in the front cabin and overall high yields when operated by non-VLA's. The reason is that in those low density configurations, the CASM goes up quickly for those smaller aircraft and they can't command apremium unlike A380 service. Who would want to pay a premium to endure 9-abreast B787 or 10 abreast and noisy B777X for 20 hours?
 
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speedbored
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:22 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
I know what I talk about.

Perhaps, but you are forgetting a few things ...

Waterbomber wrote:
By the way, SYD-LHR is 9200NM great circle.

... that is still air, straight line distance.

In reality, flying that route will require to take into account the ability to cope with winds/weather year-round, and the fact that it is not possible to route LHR-SYD in a straight line.

While the A380 has the capability to fly the route non-stop, it would, in reality, not be able to do it reliably with much more than around 100-150 passengers, which would not be commercially viable.
 
Egerton
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:43 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Egerton wrote:
Are we generally spending too much energy on this thread while forgetting that:

They are not a blue chip firm, are they?



No, they have a far greater asset, the Dubai Government.


Thanks. Perhaps you have a greater confidence in the future stability of the Middle East region than I have? And I am by nature an optimist.

All the same, just one customer is not a good basis for the optimism if not euphoria, on the future of the A380ceo and thus the neo.
It seems to me that EK is an essential pre-requisite for a good outcome. It is a good start, but is only part of the necessary new list of airlines ordering.

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