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Geoff1947
Posts: 592
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:12 am

MrHMSH wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Although someone will probably reply to me later and tell me why I am wrong and BA must buy the 779.


Well given how the 779 is apparently a very good replacement for 747-400s (of which BA is the largest operator), how BA needs large jets generally, how the 777-9 would be bigger than the A350-1000 (both more rows of seating and 10ab in Economy compared to 9ab in the A350) and thus fill a gap between the A380s and the A350s.... I think its a natural choice for BA to make.

This doesn't mean they shouldn't get A350-1000s though.


BA is the largest operator of the 744, but depending on who you ask they either have only 12 or so 744s without designated replacements, or else none, and all its replacements are already on order, I believe it's the former. If BA order 4-8 A380s (as seems quite possible now) that leaves very little room for the 779, while BA could theoretically order the 779 and then shift the A35K to be a 777 replacement, it seems unlikely as people have posted that BA's fleet plan suggests the 772s will be around for a fair while longer (late 2020s?).

BA may like large jets, but they're not against replacing larger aircraft with smaller, we already know the 78X and A35K will replace at least some 747s. It's also not unheard of that there is a gap in their fleet between aircraft, there was for a very long time a gap between the 77E and 744, and the most successful widebody airliner of the period was in that gap, they only filled that hole when given a deal on the 77W due to the 787 delays.


When BA originally ordered the A380-800, the A350-1000 and the various models of the 787 they had a total of 72 on order, which was enough to replace all their 767s and 747s. Subsequently BA has delayed retirement of some of their 747s and expanded their fleet so that now they are 11 aircraft short for completing the replacement. If they want to further expand their fleet then that number would rise further.

Geoff
 
Armaghman
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:31 am

One question I have is regards fleet expansion.

Are we getting close to point after aerlingus acquisition that iag can upgrade capacity on existing flights and free up slots. This may also be done with Iberia.

If so this would free up slots that could be used long haul to generate airplane demand rather than just replacements

Remember need to plane aircraft 3-4 years out.
 
Andy33
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:39 am

BA's expansion from LHR hasn't been constrained by slots ever since they bought BD and its slots in 2012. Now these were mostly shorthaul turnround timed slots, but by mixing and matching between these and BA's existing slot portfolio it has been and continues to be possible to convert them to ones that are usable for long haul flights. Now they have acquired Monarch's slots at LGW so significant expansion is possible there too.
The constraint has been availability of suitable aircraft, and a desire to expand steadily instead of in leaps and bounds. When your only options for increasing fleet size have been life extension on elderly 744s and 763s rapidly approaching their ultimate limits, waiting for delivery of new aircraft while avoiding spending too much capital in an one year, or finding suitable second hand purchases, expansion has necessarily been slow and steady.
 
parapente
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:53 am

BA will won't fight the LCC's out of expensive Heathrow.They will do it from Gatwick ( and via IAG other European bases).
At the time of the 350-1000 decision they could have gone two ways - they way they did or further 777 family expansion in the future.They have made their decision and obviously will stick to it.It was a major decision.I am sure they got a good deal from Airbus to get it.
As above BA are not slot constrained now either at Heathrow or Gatwick.
If they buy this additional tranche of A380's and there is every indication that they will Their fleet looks (to me) to be fully ordered.
Can't see any numbers missing.But if they need any additional a/c I am sure Boeing and Airbus will happily top up their 787/350 fleets!
 
dilettante
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:56 am

Andy33 wrote:
Now they have acquired Monarch's slots at LGW so significant expansion is possible there too.


I think this might be key here. The (sixteen?) 772s at LGW could be joined by more over time, but also up-gauged as Gatwick's fight for capacity becomes tougher. LHR's 77Ws could move to LGW in time as Heathrow becomes 787, A35K, and A388 in time. The purported economics of the 787-10 on BA's routes to cities the North East United States will be killer, the A350s could take over the 77W routes, and A380s doing the high capacity, long reach destinations at present.

There will be some routes out of Gatwick which won't justify 77Ws so I wouldn't expect them to be the sole LH aircraft in BAs fleet but that capacity and cost base on routes like MCO must be attractive to BA.
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:15 am

parapente wrote:
BA will won't fight the LCC's out of expensive Heathrow.They will do it from Gatwick ( and via IAG other European bases).
At the time of the 350-1000 decision they could have gone two ways - they way they did or further 777 family expansion in the future.They have made their decision and obviously will stick to it.It was a major decision.I am sure they got a good deal from Airbus to get it.
As above BA are not slot constrained now either at Heathrow or Gatwick.


IAG has made a move to standardise the fleets across all its airlines, so just talking about "BA's" needs is myopic. Its how those needs fit the overall group strategy and how BA can show adequate return on investment that counts. As IAG said in an investor presentation. "Show me the f***ing money". Killing off Norwegian is one group strategy, the "densified" 777s and expensive LGW slots should help to keep Norwegian out of the London market, for now. I'm sure EI's forthcoming A321LR's will quickly find homes flying a few times a week from ORK, NOC and even Belfast to NYC/BOS/YYZ.

IAG has 100 A350s on order, I believe that 46 are firm, 18 A35J for BA and the remaining 28 are A359, for IB and possibly EI, maybe even LEVEL. In the context of the overall IAG fleet the A350 family probably made more sense. Which does leave them with a 779 size gap between the A380 and A35J, but Im not sure IAG care, overall. Is it better to have 6-8 more A35J and A380, rather than a relatively small subfleet of 12-16 779s? The 777 fleet would shortly be declining in number as the 779s would arrive, so the fleet would loose is economy of scale over time, by the time the 779 is halfway through its service life the fleet would stand at only 12 in the IAG group, with a similar number of 77W. Overall 24 isnt a tiny fleet, if the 777 and 77X have a lot in common, but in the context of the IAG family, its miniscule.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:18 am

Arion640 wrote:
Jerry123 wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:

I agree with what you say, certainly the plan seems to be to use the A35K in a leisure version to replace the B744s (MAN/LGW-MCO primarily) and some of the larger LHR routes.

However I'd not be surprised if the plan is revisited to reconfigure some A333 to the MCO run, base them at MAN and LGW and add rotations to those routes.

If VS surprise us all (me included!) and take some or all the A380 on order, the beach routes seem a good way of making use of them, compressing 2x B744 into 1x A380...

However, I'd suggest they convert them into the A35K at some stage.

Problem is for Virgin is where would Virgin send the A380s in the winter? Can the Caribbean islands handle them? That's why they'll probably end up converting to more A350s or possibly the A330 900s or 800s i believe.


I don't think any of the carribean islands can handle the A380, Barbados at a push? I don't think any LGW VS 747 destinations have A380 capable gates etheir (please point them out if they do).

There is no way Virgin can pay off a brand new A380 with the low yielding holidag traffic, I think the VS 747's based at LGW have a very low number of J seats, so I think the A380 may be very kill. To be quite honest, I'm surprised they can justify using brand new A35K's, but obviously, Virgin know what they're doing, where as I'm just an arm chair (or bed in tonights case) CEO.


Cancun can take the A380 I believe (not an island I realize but a busy holiday destination for them), I don't know about Vegas, as they also fly 744's there, and maybe Orlando?

I agree that 380s would be overkill, with a huge capacity bump even over the 747, but if they could fill them, of course they could pay them off.

VS can 100% justify using the A35K on holiday routes, they've been using the 747-400s for that reason for years, they bought them brand-new. Virgin Holidays (where most of the leisure travel comes from) aren't exactly the cheapest holiday company ever, MT for example is cheaper 9/10 times to the exact same hotel. They see long flights and fairly high utilization and have very enviable load factors, particularly in high season - I flew back form Cancun on the 747 in August and every single seat was full.
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY // Upcoming: EVA 77W, AS A320, VS 787-9, VS A35K, BE E175, KLM E190, KLM 738, LS 737
 
Kadish
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:33 am

BrianDromey wrote:
parapente wrote:
BA will won't fight the LCC's out of expensive Heathrow.They will do it from Gatwick ( and via IAG other European bases).
At the time of the 350-1000 decision they could have gone two ways - they way they did or further 777 family expansion in the future.They have made their decision and obviously will stick to it.It was a major decision.I am sure they got a good deal from Airbus to get it.
As above BA are not slot constrained now either at Heathrow or Gatwick.


IAG has made a move to standardise the fleets across all its airlines, so just talking about "BA's" needs is myopic. Its how those needs fit the overall group strategy and how BA can show adequate return on investment that counts. As IAG said in an investor presentation. "Show me the f***ing money". Killing off Norwegian is one group strategy, the "densified" 777s and expensive LGW slots should help to keep Norwegian out of the London market, for now. I'm sure EI's forthcoming A321LR's will quickly find homes flying a few times a week from ORK, NOC and even Belfast to NYC/BOS/YYZ.

IAG has 100 A350s on order, I believe that 46 are firm, 18 A35J for BA and the remaining 28 are A359, for IB and possibly EI, maybe even LEVEL. In the context of the overall IAG fleet the A350 family probably made more sense. Which does leave them with a 779 size gap between the A380 and A35J, but Im not sure IAG care, overall. Is it better to have 6-8 more A35J and A380, rather than a relatively small subfleet of 12-16 779s? The 777 fleet would shortly be declining in number as the 779s would arrive, so the fleet would loose is economy of scale over time, by the time the 779 is halfway through its service life the fleet would stand at only 12 in the IAG group, with a similar number of 77W. Overall 24 isnt a tiny fleet, if the 777 and 77X have a lot in common, but in the context of the IAG family, its miniscule.


IB has 16 350 on order and and “possibly” at least another 16 which will materialize as soon as the 346 leave the fleet.
In another web (Anna aero) says that IB could use profitably the 380 in serveral routes such as MEX, EZE, JFK...and some others.
 
WIederling
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:45 am

BREECH wrote:
Everyone and his cousin keep telling me that fleet commonality is good, that it helps save on maintenance, parts, etc.


heheh.
Einstein: make your model as simple as possible. But not simpler.

Single type fleet is for simpletons managing an airline.
( then with a hammer in your hand every problem is a nail.
respective: for every question that comes up the solution is frequency.)

Well distributed granularity fleet is for those that have a wider understanding.

See LH for an airline that also values their fleet granularity.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Arion640
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 27, 2018 2:19 pm

StudiodeKadent wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Although someone will probably reply to me later and tell me why I am wrong and BA must buy the 779.


Well given how the 779 is apparently a very good replacement for 747-400s (of which BA is the largest operator), how BA needs large jets generally, how the 777-9 would be bigger than the A350-1000 (both more rows of seating and 10ab in Economy compared to 9ab in the A350) and thus fill a gap between the A380s and the A350s.... I think its a natural choice for BA to make.

This doesn't mean they shouldn't get A350-1000s though.


I can see your point regarding the 779 being a good 747 replacment.

However I can’t see them introducing yet another aircraft type just to replace the remaining 747’s. We know it’s possible they are looking at around 6 A380’s so that means perhaps only 12 of the youngest 747’s will then need replacing, of which they’ll probably allow the A350K to do.

I think if BA wanted the 777X it would of been hinted somewhere like the last fleet update. I’m all for variety in airline fleets but sadly we may never see the 777X at BA in the near future if not ever.
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TedToToe
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:25 pm

dilettante wrote:
Andy33 wrote:
Now they have acquired Monarch's slots at LGW so significant expansion is possible there too.


I think this might be key here. The (sixteen?) 772s at LGW could be joined by more over time, but also up-gauged as Gatwick's fight for capacity becomes tougher. LHR's 77Ws could move to LGW in time as Heathrow becomes 787, A35K, and A388 in time. The purported economics of the 787-10 on BA's routes to cities the North East United States will be killer, the A350s could take over the 77W routes, and A380s doing the high capacity, long reach destinations at present.

There will be some routes out of Gatwick which won't justify 77Ws so I wouldn't expect them to be the sole LH aircraft in BAs fleet but that capacity and cost base on routes like MCO must be attractive to BA.

You raise an interesting point regarding 77Ws moving across to LGW in time; in 3 class configuration for routes like MCO, perhaps. In the meantime, with the purchase of Monarch slots, it is likely that another 1 or 2 77Es will move to LGW to start new longhaul destinations and this has further influenced the fleet planning decisions out of LHR.

I think it was Egerton who, earlier in the thread, suggested that we might be seeing the start of a new strategy from BA. Whilst I still remain in the cautious camp and expect only a top up order of 2 or 3 A388s, an order for 8 to 10 could signal the introduction of a second (less premium) configuration. This would then open up routes that previously would not have been considered for the A380. Take PHX as an example: last summer BA increased their services to 10 per week whereas an A388, in less premium configuration, could operate daily and free up the three other slots for use elsewhere! LAS could be another possibility.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:52 pm

TedToToe wrote:
dilettante wrote:
Andy33 wrote:
Now they have acquired Monarch's slots at LGW so significant expansion is possible there too.


I think this might be key here. The (sixteen?) 772s at LGW could be joined by more over time, but also up-gauged as Gatwick's fight for capacity becomes tougher. LHR's 77Ws could move to LGW in time as Heathrow becomes 787, A35K, and A388 in time. The purported economics of the 787-10 on BA's routes to cities the North East United States will be killer, the A350s could take over the 77W routes, and A380s doing the high capacity, long reach destinations at present.

There will be some routes out of Gatwick which won't justify 77Ws so I wouldn't expect them to be the sole LH aircraft in BAs fleet but that capacity and cost base on routes like MCO must be attractive to BA.

You raise an interesting point regarding 77Ws moving across to LGW in time; in 3 class configuration for routes like MCO, perhaps. In the meantime, with the purchase of Monarch slots, it is likely that another 1 or 2 77Es will move to LGW to start new longhaul destinations and this has further influenced the fleet planning decisions out of LHR.

I think it was Egerton who, earlier in the thread, suggested that we might be seeing the start of a new strategy from BA. Whilst I still remain in the cautious camp and expect only a top up order of 2 or 3 A388s, an order for 8 to 10 could signal the introduction of a second (less premium) configuration. This would then open up routes that previously would not have been considered for the A380. Take PHX as an example: last summer BA increased their services to 10 per week whereas an A388, in less premium configuration, could operate daily and free up the three other slots for use elsewhere! LAS could be another possibility.


BA currently operate 2 flights to Vegas most days, both on 747s, I see an A380 and A35K combo being good here, rather than a single 380, there's more demand than 1 x 380 flight imo.
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY // Upcoming: EVA 77W, AS A320, VS 787-9, VS A35K, BE E175, KLM E190, KLM 738, LS 737
 
kabi101
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:20 am

Interesting article about this topic on MSN news today

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/lifestyle/tra ... fb-engb-57
 
tommy1808
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:49 am

JamesCousins wrote:
BA currently operate 2 flights to Vegas most days, both on 747s, I see an A380 and A35K combo being good here, rather than a single 380, there's more demand than 1 x 380 flight imo.


And since one of the flight will have a more appealing timing for many passengers as the other, it also enables to shift supply more in the direction of demand, offer on average cheaper fares with a bigger sum total of premiums for the more attractive flight and attracting additional customers for that flight from other airlines.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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TedToToe
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:26 pm

I think BA's current A380 configuration is too premium heavy for LAS. In a previous post I suggested that if BA were to order 8-10 frames, this could signal the introduction of a less premium configuration. Something similar to Lufthansa's 8F, 78J, 52W, 371Y, perhaps!
 
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JannEejit
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:03 pm

kabi101 wrote:
Interesting article about this topic on MSN news today

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/lifestyle/tra ... fb-engb-57


Written by Simon Calder who decided the A380 was done just a few weeks ago. Now advising the 747 against the A380 as 'you're less likely to be delayed by passengers drinking illicitly in the airport bar'... Wow that's a beauty ! ;-)
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:42 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
JamesCousins wrote:
BA currently operate 2 flights to Vegas most days, both on 747s, I see an A380 and A35K combo being good here, rather than a single 380, there's more demand than 1 x 380 flight imo.


And since one of the flight will have a more appealing timing for many passengers as the other, it also enables to shift supply more in the direction of demand, offer on average cheaper fares with a bigger sum total of premiums for the more attractive flight and attracting additional customers for that flight from other airlines.

best regards
Thomas


Couldn't agree more. Seems a great route for the 380 and could provide a substantially better experience for LAS passengers. My guess would be on the earlier flight taking the 380 if BA put it on LAS at all :D
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY // Upcoming: EVA 77W, AS A320, VS 787-9, VS A35K, BE E175, KLM E190, KLM 738, LS 737
 
r2rho
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:20 pm

I think BA's current A380 configuration is too premium heavy for LAS. In a previous post I suggested that if BA were to order 8-10 frames, this could signal the introduction of a less premium configuration.

Agree - and introducing a less premium configuration would turn it into a workable option for IB too, in which case you can add about 4 more aircraft to whatever BA needs.
 
FlyingColours
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:00 pm

JannEejit wrote:
kabi101 wrote:
Interesting article about this topic on MSN news today

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/lifestyle/tra ... fb-engb-57


Written by Simon Calder who decided the A380 was done just a few weeks ago. Now advising the 747 against the A380 as 'you're less likely to be delayed by passengers drinking illicitly in the airport bar'... Wow that's a beauty ! ;-)


Simon Calder's a bellend, if you read further into the article he contradicts himself as well by saying the A380 is a better passenger experience than the 747 :o

Phil
FlyingColours
Lifes a train racing towards you, now you can either run away or grab a chair & a beer and watch it come - Phil
 
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TedToToe
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:05 pm

r2rho wrote:
Agree - and introducing a less premium configuration would turn it into a workable option for IB too, in which case you can add about 4 more aircraft to whatever BA needs.

If they do go with an alternative configuration, there is also the possibility of deleting the rear staircase, as proposed by Airbus, possibly in conjunction with the EK order.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:38 pm

TedToToe wrote:
r2rho wrote:
Agree - and introducing a less premium configuration would turn it into a workable option for IB too, in which case you can add about 4 more aircraft to whatever BA needs.

If they do go with an alternative configuration, there is also the possibility of deleting the rear staircase, as proposed by Airbus, possibly in conjunction with the EK order.


Changing the rear staircase.

http://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-re ... 0plus.html

quote: The AGSM involves the redesign of the rear-stair from a spiral configuration to a straight/square one. On the main-deck, this allows valuable storage volume for galley modules. Overall the AGSM provides space for 14 more revenue passengers plus two extra food trolleys.
 
Arion640
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:08 pm

r2rho wrote:
I think BA's current A380 configuration is too premium heavy for LAS. In a previous post I suggested that if BA were to order 8-10 frames, this could signal the introduction of a less premium configuration.

Agree - and introducing a less premium configuration would turn it into a workable option for IB too, in which case you can add about 4 more aircraft to whatever BA needs.


If BA introduce a new 1-2-1 club configuration like what has been floating around on the internet, they may end up with less J seats than before so less premium heavy.

Or they may have to reduce economy seats to fit the same amount of J seats in.
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TedToToe
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:03 am

Arion640 wrote:
If BA introduce a new 1-2-1 club configuration like what has been floating around on the internet, they may end up with less J seats than before so less premium heavy.

Or they may have to reduce economy seats to fit the same amount of J seats in.

The new J seat could be another factor in determining the configuration of any additional A380s at BA. If they do go 1-2-1 with an existing J seat, we could see them on the upper deck only, for example.
 
Arion640
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:51 pm

I was told today by a BA source a post saying an A380 order was imminent was put on the internal social network, before being shortly removed.

Take with a pinch of salt mind ...
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DWC
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:12 pm

Has been discussed before but can't find it : WHERE WOULD BA's ADDITIONAL A380s FLY TO ?
Obviously not to Asia considering how much the ME3 are flocking into London, nor to JFK as T7 cannot have them.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:32 pm

DWC wrote:
Has been discussed before but can't find it : WHERE WOULD BA's ADDITIONAL A380s FLY TO ?
Obviously not to Asia considering how much the ME3 are flocking into London, nor to JFK as T7 cannot have them.


Alongside growth in routes like SFO & SIN, which already have a daily A380 & 747/77W and any work BA could pressure JFK to do at T7, the most mentioned ones seem to be Cape Town, Las Vegas & Vancouver
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY // Upcoming: EVA 77W, AS A320, VS 787-9, VS A35K, BE E175, KLM E190, KLM 738, LS 737
 
Jerry123
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:30 pm

DWC wrote:
Has been discussed before but can't find it : WHERE WOULD BA's ADDITIONAL A380s FLY TO ?
Obviously not to Asia considering how much the ME3 are flocking into London, nor to JFK as T7 cannot have them.

They won't use it on JFK, that service is more about frequency than size of aircraft but i can see them using them to places like San Francisco, Vancouver, Las Vegas and LAX and possibly other 747 routes that can take the A380 or would look to upgrade to get an A380 service.
 
Arion640
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:40 pm

DWC wrote:
Has been discussed before but can't find it : WHERE WOULD BA's ADDITIONAL A380s FLY TO ?
Obviously not to Asia considering how much the ME3 are flocking into London, nor to JFK as T7 cannot have them.



Capetown when it's ready in a couple of years. Capetown has exploded as a route for BA.

Boston more regularly and re-instate Washington. The third (previously second) LAX flight of the day could go back to A380.

I've also seen Toronto, Dubai and Dallas brought up on here before. Apparently Dubai was seriously looked at.

1 out of 12 of the A380's is usually being maintained at any given time these days, so the servicable fleet is usually about 11. All 11 are currently airbourne right now with XLEF currently in maintenance.
Last edited by Arion640 on Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Aerlingus330neo
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:46 pm

BrianDromey wrote:
parapente wrote:
IAG has made a move to standardise the fleets across all its airlines, so just talking about "BA's" needs is myopic. Its how those needs fit the overall group strategy and how BA can show adequate return on investment that counts. As IAG said in an investor presentation. "Show me the f***ing money". Killing off Norwegian is one group strategy, the "densified" 777s and expensive LGW slots should help to keep Norwegian out of the London market, for now. I'm sure EI's forthcoming A321LR's will quickly find homes flying a few times a week from ORK, NOC and even Belfast to NYC/BOS/YYZ.


If you are talking about BHD i highly doubt it, BHD has given up on a runway extension due to the local residents and lack of government support and the likely hood of them returning to BFS is very slim seeing as they are fighting out a divorce in court at the minute, I dont know if that has been settled or not but still, very sour grapes between them two. I hate to say it but growth in Northern Ireland is being hampered by its own people and government.
 
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TedToToe
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:58 pm

JamesCousins wrote:
DWC wrote:
Has been discussed before but can't find it : WHERE WOULD BA's ADDITIONAL A380s FLY TO ?
Obviously not to Asia considering how much the ME3 are flocking into London, nor to JFK as T7 cannot have them.


Alongside growth in routes like SFO & SIN, which already have a daily A380 & 747/77W and any work BA could pressure JFK to do at T7, the most mentioned ones seem to be Cape Town, Las Vegas & Vancouver

Double daily A380 to SIN is highly unlikely because the present 77W continues on to SYD. However, double daily HKG is not beyond the realms of possibility. I also see DXB and PVG as potential new routes for their A380s.
 
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PW100
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:28 pm

Jerry123 wrote:
They won't use it on JFK, that service is more about frequency than size of aircraft . . .

Right. That's why they operate 6 (!) daily 747s (!) on the LHR-JFK run this summer. Frequencies are king :-)
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TheRedBaron
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:55 pm

SFO, LAX, MEX,GRU, YVR (or SEA) just off the top of my head, I am sure BA will go 8 firm orders and 8 options to be firmed before 2023 with no penalty of cancelation...and or upgrades if --IF-- Airbus Neo´s the A380 at a very good price... maybe it will be John Leahy last hurray....
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:57 pm

PW100 wrote:
Jerry123 wrote:
They won't use it on JFK, that service is more about frequency than size of aircraft . . .

Right. That's why they operate 6 (!) daily 747s (!) on the LHR-JFK run this summer. Frequencies are king :-)

And depending which ones are operating they have a max of 347 and others have a max of 275 seats while their A380s have 469 seats. You also need to include Americans flights as well as they have a joint venture.They'll use it on a route where frequency isn't key ie cutting from 3 daily flights to 2.
 
fcogafa
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:05 pm

Walsh has been talking about the A380 today, In Flightglobal:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ou-446484/

"We're not negotiating – we've said very clearly to Airbus, if they want to sell A380s they need to be aggressive on pricing."

He describes prices he has seen from Airbus, however, as "unacceptable to us", adding that he is "not going to waste any time coming up with a price. That's for [Airbus]. If they want to sell the aircraft, they know that we're a potential buyer… They know that we're open to operating more of them… but only if the price is right."

Walsh also reiterates that IAG would be interested in purchasing second-hand A380s: "If somebody wants to sell them, we're certainly prepared to listen."
 
kaitak
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:26 pm

Fair stance and I'm sure a few other airline CEOs would be saying "and so say all of us". At the end of the day, Airbus is probably fully aware that this is a buyers' market. The question is essentially "how much are we willing to lose on each A380 we sell?"

WW has put the ball very firmly in Airbus's court and it's up to them to put a package to BA that will attract them. It's not as if anyone else is banging on its door right now.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:37 pm

fcogafa wrote:
Walsh has been talking about the A380 today, In Flightglobal:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ou-446484/

"We're not negotiating – we've said very clearly to Airbus, if they want to sell A380s they need to be aggressive on pricing."

He describes prices he has seen from Airbus, however, as "unacceptable to us", adding that he is "not going to waste any time coming up with a price. That's for [Airbus]. If they want to sell the aircraft, they know that we're a potential buyer… They know that we're open to operating more of them… but only if the price is right."

Walsh also reiterates that IAG would be interested in purchasing second-hand A380s: "If somebody wants to sell them, we're certainly prepared to listen."

Ownership costs are up to 15 % and fuel costs make up approximately 35 % of overall operating costs (in the current environment). Therefore, offering the plane for half the price would equal a fuel burn reduction of 20 %, cost wise. Obviously an important area for negotiations. But surely he knows that he can't get them for much cheaper than whatever Airbus is offering right now?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:38 pm

kaitak wrote:
Fair stance and I'm sure a few other airline CEOs would be saying "and so say all of us". At the end of the day, Airbus is probably fully aware that this is a buyers' market. The question is essentially "how much are we willing to lose on each A380 we sell?"

WW has put the ball very firmly in Airbus's court and it's up to them to put a package to BA that will attract them. It's not as if anyone else is banging on its door right now.

Airbus tells us they now have the orders they need to keep the production line up and running for another decade when they'll finally admit that the A380 was a bad idea.

Therefore there's no need for them to lose any more money then they already are losing.

Personally, I'm more interested to find out if EA is willing to offer up an improved product so EK can give RR the bum's rush on the 20+16 order, or if EA is just acting as leverage to goad RR into making a bad deal with EK, or if neither of them are willing to take the bait on EK's most recent gambit.
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Arion640
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:45 pm

I think A380's new or used at BA are inevitable. Walsh is clearly happen with the plane but it may even be a few years until they get them, possibly when Emirates retires it's first RR birds, unless Airbus can get the price down.

It seems to me the ball is in the Airbus court, but I can understand if they don't want to sell A380's at a loss, but they may have to if there's going to be a NEO.
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WIederling
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:55 pm

Arion640 wrote:
It seems to me the ball is in the Airbus court, but I can understand if they don't want to sell A380's at a loss, but they may have to if there's going to be a NEO.


"Lick my feeet" isn't really what I would deem "showing basic interest" :-)
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SteinarN
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Mar 06, 2018 5:33 pm

fcogafa wrote:
Walsh has been talking about the A380 today, In Flightglobal:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ou-446484/

"We're not negotiating – we've said very clearly to Airbus, if they want to sell A380s they need to be aggressive on pricing."


Hmm, ok. So BA wont buy A380 for "current" price which is by far the cheapest per seat you can get compared to any other modern wide body.

If I was Airbus then I would offer him a good price on the A350K, which would be significant more per seat though, and as a added bonus for Airbus, it would actually make them some decent money.
 
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Mar 06, 2018 5:33 pm

WIederling wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
It seems to me the ball is in the Airbus court, but I can understand if they don't want to sell A380's at a loss, but they may have to if there's going to be a NEO.


"Lick my feeet" isn't really what I would deem "showing basic interest" :-)


Wlederling, you have that right. Given that there are only two serous OEMs, Walsh's approach is likely to leave them with only one, like Ryanair. It is bad practice to insult your suppliers, as Emirates has discovered. Time for Walsh to retire, before his magic touch deserts him altogether. He looked really old at the Commons Select Committee on the 3rd Runway recently, although what he said and the way he said it was good.
 
Strato2
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Mar 06, 2018 6:21 pm

Revelation wrote:
Airbus tells us they now have the orders they need to keep the production line up and running for another decade when they'll finally admit that the A380 was a bad idea.

Therefore there's no need for them to lose any more money then they already are losing.


Your "argument" makes no sense. It's in the best interest of Airbus to sell as many Superjumbo's they possibly can. Period. Not "let's sell Emirates and then stop".
 
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Mar 06, 2018 6:41 pm

Strato2 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Airbus tells us they now have the orders they need to keep the production line up and running for another decade when they'll finally admit that the A380 was a bad idea.

Therefore there's no need for them to lose any more money then they already are losing.


Your "argument" makes no sense. It's in the best interest of Airbus to sell as many Superjumbo's they possibly can. Period. Not "let's sell Emirates and then stop".

It is a balance. At such low production rates Airbus is likely losing money on every A380 coming off the line. You want more planes out there to make more money off of support, but you don’t want to discount too much upfront and completely lose your shirt making the aircraft to begin with. Too cheap can also hurt the secondary market, as airlines would rather spend a little extra for the cheap new plane (that Airbus loses money on when they produce it) rather than fly old planes which gives Airbus money through support. Which means more scrappings which means lower part costs which means less money for Airbus.

It is not as simple as fireselling your aircraft to get as many aircraft possible out there when you are not making money upfront from the sale.
 
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william
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Mar 06, 2018 6:54 pm

Polot wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Airbus tells us they now have the orders they need to keep the production line up and running for another decade when they'll finally admit that the A380 was a bad idea.

Therefore there's no need for them to lose any more money then they already are losing.


Your "argument" makes no sense. It's in the best interest of Airbus to sell as many Superjumbo's they possibly can. Period. Not "let's sell Emirates and then stop".

It is a balance. At such low production rates Airbus is likely losing money on every A380 coming off the line. You want more planes out there to make more money off of support, but you don’t want to discount too much upfront and completely lose your shirt making the aircraft to begin with. Too cheap can also hurt the secondary market, as airlines would rather spend a little extra for the cheap new plane (that Airbus loses money on when they produce it) rather than fly old planes which gives Airbus money through support. Which means more scrappings which means lower part costs which means less money for Airbus.

It is not as simple as fireselling your aircraft to get as many aircraft possible out there when you are not making money upfront from the sale.


And in this case it may not be bad for Airbus if BA bought some used A380s to prove to the market there is a demand for the aircraft as they come off lease. Definitely need to show a secondary market considering how many A380s are leased.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Mar 06, 2018 6:57 pm

It may not be a bad idea for Airbus to throw a few A380s on the cheap to WW. It would build confidence that there's more to the A380 than being primarily STC's plane. The plane has been given a little shot of adrenaline with the new EK order, and it's a break Airbus needs to capitalize on.
 
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Mar 06, 2018 6:59 pm

william wrote:
And in this case it may not be bad for Airbus if BA bought some used A380s to prove to the market there is a demand for the aircraft as they come off lease. Definitely need to show a secondary market considering how many A380s are leased.

Haha, we're on pretty much the same page, but I think the secondary market should be Airbus' secondary concern. They need to produce new frames, otherwise the whole shooting match peters out.
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:17 pm

Bricktop wrote:
It may not be a bad idea for Airbus to throw a few A380s on the cheap to WW. It would build confidence that there's more to the A380 than being primarily STC's plane. The plane has been given a little shot of adrenaline with the new EK order, and it's a break Airbus needs to capitalize on.

The problem is the airlines (including EK) learn this, and suddenly Airbus losses pricing leverage and they can only ever give them away cheap. The wider the gulf in pricing between the current A380 and any future improved variant (that Airbus presumably wants to make money on) the better the improved variant has to be to justify its price to the airlines.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:30 pm

Strato2 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Airbus tells us they now have the orders they need to keep the production line up and running for another decade when they'll finally admit that the A380 was a bad idea.

Therefore there's no need for them to lose any more money then they already are losing.

Your "argument" makes no sense. It's in the best interest of Airbus to sell as many Superjumbo's they possibly can. Period. Not "let's sell Emirates and then stop".

Whatever they lose on each frame they can make up with volume? :biggrin:

william wrote:
And in this case it may not be bad for Airbus if BA bought some used A380s to prove to the market there is a demand for the aircraft as they come off lease. Definitely need to show a secondary market considering how many A380s are leased.

Sure, but it seems WW won't bite till they are priced at near scrap value. For instance he sniffed around the MH A380s and those were too expensive for his blood. I suppose Airbus could jump in and facilitate a sale at such low values but then they've set a poor precedent.

Bricktop wrote:
It may not be a bad idea for Airbus to throw a few A380s on the cheap to WW. It would build confidence that there's more to the A380 than being primarily STC's plane. The plane has been given a little shot of adrenaline with the new EK order, and it's a break Airbus needs to capitalize on.

I thought airlines buy airliners based on the numbers, not on emotion / ego / confidence / adrenaline.

Polot wrote:
The problem is the airlines (including EK) learn this, and suddenly Airbus losses pricing leverage and they can only ever give them away cheap. The wider the gulf in pricing between the current A380 and any future improved variant (that Airbus presumably wants to make money on) the better the improved variant has to be to justify its price to the airlines.

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Jayafe
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:38 pm

Revelation wrote:
I thought airlines buy airliners based on the numbers, not on emotion / ego / confidence / adrenaline.


If that was 100% true, this would be a lovely ideal world, wouldn't it?. No politics, black money, interests, favours, lobbying.... get me a unicorn as well when you're free ;)
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:56 pm

Jayafe wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I thought airlines buy airliners based on the numbers, not on emotion / ego / confidence / adrenaline.


If that was 100% true, this would be a lovely ideal world, wouldn't it?. No politics, black money, interests, favours, lobbying.... get me a unicorn as well when you're free ;)

True, but the point is that the A380 is not selling because it doesn't deliver the economic performance, not because of the nonsense about airline operators lacking confidence.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
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