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SFOformerFA
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Thoughts about UA SFO - AMS?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:06 am

United has started a number of transatlantic routes from SFO over the last few years -- reinstated CDG, started seasonal to MUC, starting ZRH, etc.

It would appear that SFO - AMS would be a good addition. Clearly AMS is a KL/AF and DL hub. However, CDG is as well.

Thoughts?
 
ericm2031
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Re: Thoughts about UA SFO - AMS?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:55 am

AMS would probably be the next non-*A Europe hub route to be launched, although with the resumption of LAX growth, I wouldn't be surprised to see some LAX-*A Europe first
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Thoughts about UA SFO - AMS?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:42 am

SFOformerFA wrote:
Clearly AMS is a KL/AF and DL hub. However, CDG is as well.

Sure, but CDG also has far more O&D and total traffic to the west coast than AMS.... which is why five airlines fly California-Paris, but only one flies California-Amsterdam.

(yes, I'm aware DL is launching LAX-AMS, not that that really changes the above)
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
LJ
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Re: Thoughts about UA SFO - AMS?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:00 am

ericm2031 wrote:
AMS would probably be the next non-*A Europe hub route to be launched, although with the resumption of LAX growth, I wouldn't be surprised to see some LAX-*A Europe first


The chances of a UA SFO-AMS are close to zero until 2020. AMS is at maximum capacity and it would be near impossible for UA to get the slots it needs for such a flight given the current situation at AMS.
 
flyingfool
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Re: Thoughts about UA SFO - AMS?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:07 am

LJ wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
AMS would probably be the next non-*A Europe hub route to be launched, although with the resumption of LAX growth, I wouldn't be surprised to see some LAX-*A Europe first


The chances of a UA SFO-AMS are close to zero until 2020. AMS is at maximum capacity and it would be near impossible for UA to get the slots it needs for such a flight given the current situation at AMS.


They can but only in exchange to another route.
Until 2020 they need to cancel another route in order to start a new one.
 
LJ
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They currently flyt

Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:24 am

flyingfool wrote:
They can but only in exchange to another route.
Until 2020 they need to cancel another route in order to start a new one.


Which is highly unlikely. They currently fly to EWR, IAD and ORD, the most important hubs for a passenger coming from Europe and going anywhere in the US. The number of destinations not served via these hubs is very low.
 
ShinyAndChrome
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Re: Thoughts about UA SFO - AMS?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:35 am

I can’t really see SFO-AMS either being a significant enough local market or well positioned for connections that aren’t already flowing over their hubs to the east. If UA is aiming for more European routes, I think it would be more likely to see something like DUB or BCN or perhaps MUC to complement LH.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: They currently flyt

Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:52 am

LJ wrote:
They currently fly to EWR, IAD and ORD,

And IAH as well (UA21)
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
LJ
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Re: They currently flyt

Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:58 am

LAX772LR wrote:
LJ wrote:
They currently fly to EWR, IAD and ORD,

And IAH as well (UA21)


Indeed (my mistake). Given the Shell contract on this route (AFAIK they still have them) this one will not go anywhere).

Also note that other Star airlines are not eager to give up slots at AMS. LH Group wants addtional slots as well for both LH and Eurowings.
 
cedarjet
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Re: Thoughts about UA SFO - AMS?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:19 am

No way; Amsterdam is a pretty small city, it has the range of destinations because KLM are effective running it as a connecting hub. If UA are looking to add transatlantic from SFO they’d be better off with MAD/BCN, TXL, FCO.
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FlyRow
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Re: Thoughts about UA SFO - AMS?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:36 am

cedarjet wrote:
No way; Amsterdam is a pretty small city, it has the range of destinations because KLM are effective running it as a connecting hub. If UA are looking to add transatlantic from SFO they’d be better off with MAD/BCN, TXL, FCO.


You know there is a world outside Amsterdam? I know tourist forget that, although it is also a major tourist hotspot.

AMS has the second largest catchment area in Europe: approximately 35 million people live within 200 km from AMS.
The Dutch Economy is the 18th largest in the world, the Zuidas in Amsterdam alone is booming with multinational HQ's. We haven't even started talking about Rotterdam (port/oil) / The Hague (law/diplomats) and other university cities with booming (tech-)startups.

Is it a smaller O/D destination then FRA/LHR/CDG .. yes, but what you do is oversimplefying it.

Just saying Amsterdam only has 800.000 inhabitants so the route won't work is just stupid, no other way of putting it.
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AA737-823
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Re: Thoughts about UA SFO - AMS?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:44 am

Why would they?
They have zero *A connectivity in AMS.
And I'm not convinced that there are a bunch of San Franciscans just beating down the door to get to AMS.
KLM has the route covered for both O&D and connections, with their fantastic network.
 
76er
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Re: Thoughts about UA SFO - AMS?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:06 am

KL would gladly give up some slots to enable this route, just like they did recently on behalf of Norwegian and Air Bridge Cargo.

Kidding aside, the Randstad area in which AMS is located houses about 8 million people, most within about a half our train ride from the airport.

Nevertheless, I don't see a nonstop UA happening, given some of the reasons above.

If you're interested in knowing more about the Randstad, here's a link:

http://www.randstadregion.eu/en/
 
factsonly
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Re: Thoughts about UA SFO - AMS?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:04 pm

FlyRow wrote:

AMS ......Is a smaller O/D destination then FRA/LHR/CDG .. yes, but what you do is oversimplefying it.



An often quoted mistake, AMS is in fact a much larger O&D destination than FRA:

2017 Total Airport Passengers:
- AMS = 68.515.425
- FRA = 64.502.009

2017 Total O&D Passengers:
- AMS 43.086.344
- FRA 29.000.000 estimate (2014 = 55.08% transfer pax - page 5 and 7 below)

http://www.dlr.de/fw/Portaldata/42/Reso ... mation.pdf
 
FlyingHollander
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Re: Thoughts about UA SFO - AMS?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:23 pm

I have always wondered if United could increase its West Coast presence from AMS. SFO is obviously the bigger destination, but United could have DEN all for themselves. DEN, LAS, CLT and PHX are the busiest airports in the US currently not served from AMS.
If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much.
 
flydude380
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Re: Thoughts about UA SFO - AMS?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:54 pm

I think LAX-BRU and/or SFO-BRU would be good routes. Especially, for those connecting onto Africa.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Thoughts about UA SFO - AMS?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:48 pm

UA has 4 flights to AMS. That should be enough capacity especially when IAD-AMS struggles a bit to fill a 767. They tried using 757s on that route at one point, but range especially westbound in winter was an issue.

DL has so much capacity to AMS from all their hubs and geopgraphy doesnt favor connections in SFO that there is minimal connecting traffic to pull from. Given that KL is already on the route, I do question how much UA could profit on Bay Area based O/D to AMS.

I’d be surprised to see AMS-SFO on UA, but it could happen.
 
klwright69
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Re: Thoughts about UA SFO - AMS?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:12 pm

UA has 4 flights a day (IAH, IAD, EWR, and IAD). I agree, is there enough traffic to support UA on LAX/SFO-AMS year round? It's questionable.
Not every city in Europe is connected to every hub. Notice IAH-CDG is gone, while CDG-SFO joined.
I was just in AMS last summer for the first time. DL/KLM have quite an impressive operation there. My perception was that AMS is indeed maxed out.
 
NichCage
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Re: Thoughts about UA SFO - AMS?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:01 pm

SFO-LHR is no doubt an popular route for United. LHR is not an Star Alliance hub, but the London market itself is very big market for a lot of airlines to fly to. UA also flies to LHR from every other hub they have as well.

Besides CDG being an service resumption, FRA, MUC, and ZRH are flown because they are Star Alliance hubs. AMS would never happen for now because KLM has the market, along with the fact that the airport is close to being maxed out.
 
babastud
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Re: Thoughts about UA SFO - AMS?

Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:47 pm

There seems to be already a fair amount of capacity on SFO-AMS with KLM either a 747-4 or now I believe they use 2x787-9 on the route.

I think UA would try to open up other markets to alliance area's, many of which have expressed interest in starting routes: Tap Portugal, Austria and non-alliance Alitalia. UA could dip it's toes into the market with Seasonal summer service to Europe opening up new Routes from SFO and expand from there. The only issue seems to be the gates available at SFO as everything is bursting at the seams, and there will not be any relief for some time.

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