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VS4ever
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:04 am

by738 wrote:
I'd suggest it was loads/yields related....
If it was rammed and profitable theres no way it would be dropped
BOS is always quite marginal over the years


Loads I don’t think were the issue, they kicked VS’s rear end with that with denser aircraft. Either had to be profit related or fleet related. BOS is a shortish long haul route and their schedule may not have worked on that basis. But if I am a guessing person most likely profitability . Loads averaged out around 266 a flight in 17, which is 83% or so, not the worst.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:43 am

I think BOS is part of a wider series of adjustments whereby TCX and VS appear to have ceded certain markets (upon which they previously competed) to the other, whilst remaining in competition on the larger ones (e.g. LAX and JFK).

For example, VS have (obviously but yet to be confirmed) withdrawn SFO for S19 leaving TCX the sole operator. TCX have withdrawn from BOS, leaving VS the sole operator. In response VS have increased to 3x weekly and have (I believe) a shadow schedule for a fourth weekly rotation.

If this means TCX can develop, expand and make the SFO market their own, and VS can do likewise at BOS, this is a good move.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:08 am

Qatar Airways in recent schedule update moved forward planned Airbus A350-900XWB service on Doha – Manchester route. Previously scheduled to operate from 28OCT18, the A350 will now operate on 14 out of 18 weekly flights from 01OCT18.

Following schedule effective 01OCT18 – 27OCT18.

QR021 DOH0135 – 0700MAN 359 D
QR027 DOH0810 – 1335MAN 359 D
QR023 DOH1445 – 2010MAN 788 x357

QR022 MAN0820 – 1715DOH 359 D
QR028 MAN1510 – 0005+1DOH 359 D
QR024 MAN2125 – 0620+1DOH 788 x357

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -oct-2018/
 
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adamh8297
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:31 pm

DobboDobbo wrote:
I think BOS is part of a wider series of adjustments whereby TCX and VS appear to have ceded certain markets (upon which they previously competed) to the other, whilst remaining in competition on the larger ones (e.g. LAX and JFK).

For example, VS have (obviously but yet to be confirmed) withdrawn SFO for S19 leaving TCX the sole operator. TCX have withdrawn from BOS, leaving VS the sole operator. In response VS have increased to 3x weekly and have (I believe) a shadow schedule for a fourth weekly rotation.

If this means TCX can develop, expand and make the SFO market their own, and VS can do likewise at BOS, this is a good move.


Looks like BOS was cut to increase CUN. https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... ce-in-s19/
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:01 pm

AA will not be bringing back the seasonal ORD-MAN service for S19.

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... a-Service/

Disappointing to loose one of MAN's longest served TATL routes, but this cannot be considered a surprise given the managed decline over the past decade. In particular, the high number of technical cancellations (perhaps catalysed by the ease through which the AA/BA JV can rerouted passengers via LHR) has not helped.

MAN must now seek another carrier to operate this route, if one is forthcoming.
 
Luftymatt
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 6:51 pm

DobboDobbo wrote:
AA will not be bringing back the seasonal ORD-MAN service for S19.

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... a-Service/

Disappointing to loose one of MAN's longest served TATL routes, but this cannot be considered a surprise given the managed decline over the past decade. In particular, the high number of technical cancellations (perhaps catalysed by the ease through which the AA/BA JV can rerouted passengers via LHR) has not helped.

MAN must now seek another carrier to operate this route, if one is forthcoming.

Bizarre that they upgrade to a 788, then cancel. Is the route really doing that badly? Maybe MAG can court UA to take over the route? Mind you, they've not exactly been showing much dedication to MAN either.
chase the sun
 
8herveg
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Tue Aug 21, 2018 8:50 pm

Yes I’m surprised at 788 upgrade then cancellation too.

Maybe UA can try the route on a B757?
 
FlyingColours
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:55 am

I always thought the biggest issue with MAN-ORD & MAN-JFK for that matter was that it is/was 767 over the summer and a 757 over the winter, with both types being phased out the 787 is too big and valuable for the quiet winter season (hence why it was being curtailed to the short summer months instead) and that it is now required elsewhere with no 767s able to fill in. I'm sure had ORD found a few A330s based there then there was a chance they would have kept it going in the summer at least.

It certainly doesn't help that BA have been badgering AA for years about pulling routes from MAN (anyone remember the stink when AA briefly operated MAN-BOS & MAN-MIA?).

It would be great if UA could step in but it depends on if they have the spare metal in Illinois I guess (although they could do a W pattern with the EWR one I guess). We need more US carriers & routes, ORD was one of my preferred entry points and AA was my preferred carrier, we lost DL to VS (but at least kept the route), I'm glad I had a good experience with VS as maybe it's time to jump ship. (Connections via PHL are pathetic, had a 3+ hour connection and still had to run for the flight due to the farce at customs).

Phil
FlyingColours
Lifes a train racing towards you, now you can either run away or grab a chair & a beer and watch it come - Phil
 
gkirk
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:23 am

FlyingColours wrote:

It certainly doesn't help that BA have been badgering AA for years about pulling routes from MAN (anyone remember the stink when AA briefly operated MAN-BOS & MAN-MIA?).



Phil
FlyingColours



Any solid proof that this actually happened?
When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:47 am

DobboDobbo wrote:
MAN must now seek another carrier to operate this route, if one is forthcoming.


The most logical one would be UA given their hub there, but that's by no means guaranteed. I think we can rule out VS given they axed their seasonal LHR-ORD route.

gkirk wrote:
FlyingColours wrote:

It certainly doesn't help that BA have been badgering AA for years about pulling routes from MAN (anyone remember the stink when AA briefly operated MAN-BOS & MAN-MIA?).

Phil
FlyingColours


Any solid proof that this actually happened?


My memory could be failing me, but I thought MAN-MIA on AA was a one-off for Winter 2004/05 to connect with cruise ships?

MIA is another route with a vacancy given that Thomas Cook have pulled MAN-MIA, but I suspect TPA might happen first if an airline decides to launch the route, or even an IAD re-launch by UA or whoever.

DobboDobbo wrote:
I think BOS is part of a wider series of adjustments whereby TCX and VS appear to have ceded certain markets (upon which they previously competed) to the other, whilst remaining in competition on the larger ones (e.g. LAX and JFK).

For example, VS have (obviously but yet to be confirmed) withdrawn SFO for S19 leaving TCX the sole operator. TCX have withdrawn from BOS, leaving VS the sole operator. In response VS have increased to 3x weekly and have (I believe) a shadow schedule for a fourth weekly rotation.

If this means TCX can develop, expand and make the SFO market their own, and VS can do likewise at BOS, this is a good move.


Agreed, I'd much rather see both airlines stick to certain routes to make them a success. If they try to compete on routes that can't support 2 airlines, there's a risk that both airlines will throw in the towel leaving no service at all. If VS can build on the increased MAN-BOS frequencies next year and have enough aircraft in place, it would be nice to see this route go year-round. That and increased frequencies per week would make it more business-friendly than connecting elsewhere.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:24 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
The most logical one would be UA given their hub there, but that's by no means guaranteed. I think we can rule out VS given they axed their seasonal LHR-ORD route.


Clearly loosing ORD was a blow, but I cannot claim to be surprised. AA had their issues and the market was clearly not strong enough to support a carrier with issues.

I agree the most realistic candidates are UA or TCX but I wouldn't rule out a transit flight (e.g. SQ). I agree VS are not in the running for this one.

The question with UA is - there are indicates they wish to increase capacity at MAN (e.g. Applying for 763 on EWR-MAN) but they have tried and cut a seasonal IAD before. Is ORD more of the same?

Boeing74741R wrote:
Agreed, I'd much rather see both airlines stick to certain routes to make them a success. If they try to compete on routes that can't support 2 airlines, there's a risk that both airlines will throw in the towel leaving no service at all. If VS can build on the increased MAN-BOS frequencies next year and have enough aircraft in place, it would be nice to see this route go year-round. That and increased frequencies per week would make it more business-friendly than connecting elsewhere.


I suspect we will know how this has worked out this time next year. I am actually quietly confident in VS. They are clearly experiencing a full blown fleet crisis with the B789 issues, yet have added circa 20% seat growth for the past few years at MAN. Some of this is slightly artificial due to the B744, but hopefully when this blows over some of the A333 and A332 can move north and provide a solid fleet for them to build the operation with (including the relationship with Jet). The seat capacity of the B744 is one thing, but this comes at the price of frequency. The classic example of how this should help is replacing 3/4x weekly B744 to ATL in the winter with a daily A330.

MAN does have a reasonably solid core of year round routes to the USA (JFK, EWR, MCO, ATL, IAH, PHL) but seasonality of the overall market is, quite rightly a major challenge. Getting the next wave of routes (e.g. LAX, SFO,BOS) to year round is the next step. If VS and TCX can get there between them, it will represent a positive step in the right direction.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:27 pm

MAN-CAN is anna.aero's "unserved route of the week".

https://www.anna.aero/2018/08/29/world- ... c-87025829


Previous MAN-related "unserved routes if the week" have included BKK and BOM. These have yielded mixed results with BKK remaining elusive and BOM to be served by Jet from November.

Interestingly they think China Southern could be best placed to serve the route. I'm not sure who has the rights to this, but I believe Hainan have applied for slots at MAN for this route pair. Make of that what you will.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:23 am

EasyJet's worldwide by Easyjet interline service appears to be coming to MAN.

With the planned and expected expansion by EZY at MAN, this could be a very substantial transfer pool. Hopefully the new transfer facility in T2 is up to the task.

http://m.atwonline.com/it-distribution/ ... s-platform
 
MancMAN
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:16 pm

Not quite sure how this is going to work unless easy change many schedules to arrival in the am to tie up with the westbound departures, as it is the arrivals at the moment are but a handful from Paris , Amsterdam which both have significant westbound traffic of their own. It will work for U.S. inbound onwards to Europe but that’s it. Like I say ,they may have big changes in mind.
 
MancMAN
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:54 am

EasyJet arrivals at MAN this morning total 7 ,BER, BFS, AMS, CPH, ALC, MALAGA AND GENEVA upto 13:00 by which time most westbound long haul has gone. Going the other way is fine just don’t know how those pax will get home. Anybody know?
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:39 am

MancMAN wrote:
EasyJet arrivals at MAN this morning total 7 ,BER, BFS, AMS, CPH, ALC, MALAGA AND GENEVA upto 13:00 by which time most westbound long haul has gone. Going the other way is fine just don’t know how those pax will get home. Anybody know?


Perhaps EZE intend to add away based capacity?
 
MancMAN
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:54 am

That ,to my mind is the only way to put bums on seats heading west. Cheers.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:13 am

MancMAN wrote:
That ,to my mind is the only way to put bums on seats heading west. Cheers.


Would be handy for TCX (and others) heading to South Africa and India...

The former is presumably quite marginal on O&D, transfer traffic might just push it over the threshold and claw back leakage...
 
User001
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:04 pm

TUI to add a new 1 weekly Rijeka, Croatia from May 2019.

TUI do seem to be heading down a niche route with MAN. Podgorica this summer, Lamezia Terme, Rijeka, Aqaba and Muscat this winter/next summer.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:50 am

August 2018 stats:

Rolling 12 month total: 27,909,953
August 2018 total: 3,146,198
% change year on year: -0.6%

https://mediacentre.magairports.com/lon ... s-history/

Some commentary from the source:

"Manchester Airport’s performance was broadly flat year-on-year (-0.6%), despite the fact that this time last year, Monarch were running a full summer programme from the airport. The airport’s successful backfilling of Monarch’s slots demonstrates the ongoing appeal of the airport to a range of international airlines and has led to very strong growth in Eastern Mediterranean and North African destinations, with 24,000 more passengers travelling to the Turkish destinations of Antalya and Dalaman alone compared with last year. Meanwhile, Cancun, Dubai and Seattle were the fastest growing long haul routes, contributing to 3.9% growth to North American destinations and 8.9% growth to long haul destinations elsewhere in the world."Manchester Airport’s performance was broadly flat year-on-year (-0.6%), despite the fact that this time last year, Monarch were running a full summer programme from the airport. The airport’s successful backfilling of Monarch’s slots demonstrates the ongoing appeal of the airport to a range of international airlines and has led to very strong growth in Eastern Mediterranean and North African destinations, with 24,000 more passengers travelling to the Turkish destinations of Antalya and Dalaman alone compared with last year. Meanwhile, Cancun, Dubai and Seattle were the fastest growing long haul routes, contributing to 3.9% growth to North American destinations and 8.9% growth to long haul destinations elsewhere in the world.
 
David_itl
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:25 am

MAN is updating the "China Dividend" today in China. No specifics in terms of passenger numbers against projected but meant to be fastest growing China service that's been going 12 months in the UK.

What is of more interest are these nuggets:
Export values from Manchester Airport to China grew 41 per cent to £1.29bn in the two years after route launch, while national values fell 30 per cent.
In 2017 there were 58,000 visits from China to the North West and a total spend of £125

http://www.timesandstar.co.uk/news/business/Direct-link-with-China-has-given-boost-to-Cumbria-8691992d-837a-4e95-b206-105af95f09a8-ds

I do wonder when the expected 2nd MAN-China route will be revealed.;demonstrable results does make you wonder about the total fixation of all Chinese airlines bar Hainan with prromulgating London as the UK's only worthwhile destination.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:54 am

Not directly airline / airport related, but The Hut Group has committed to investing over $1bn in a global HQ at Manchester Airport.

https://www.prolificnorth.co.uk/news/di ... er-airport
 
TurnaroudUK
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:22 pm

DobboDobbo wrote:
MancMAN wrote:
EasyJet arrivals at MAN this morning total 7 ,BER, BFS, AMS, CPH, ALC, MALAGA AND GENEVA upto 13:00 by which time most westbound long haul has gone. Going the other way is fine just don’t know how those pax will get home. Anybody know?


Perhaps EZE intend to add away based capacity?


A guy can dream :)
 
David_itl
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:11 pm

Storm Ali causing a bit of havoc. Diversions to MAN so far today:

AA208 / AAL208 B788 N811AB ORD-DUB
FR663 / RYR663 B738 EI-DWL BHX-DUB
DL154 / DAL154 B757 N704X BOS-DUB
QR17 / QTR736T B788 A7-BCQ DOH-DUB
BA1476 / SHT6L A321 G-MEDL LHR-GLA
BE4513 / BEE9HD E175 G-FBJE CWL-GLA
BY1309 / TOM3MW B738 G-FDZT VRN-GLA
BE1494 / BEE2KJ DHC8 G-FLBD DUS-LBA
 
LHR01
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:10 pm

Pakistan International Airlines have reduce flights from ISB
 
User001
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:59 pm

LHR01 wrote:
Pakistan International Airlines have reduce flights from ISB


When is this from? Looked at their website and various dates throughout winter and next summer, and it remains 7 weekly (daily)?
 
MancMAN
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:11 pm

Hi user, I think lhr01 maybe talking about Bhx as their pk flights seem to be reduced to 2? Weekly yet MAN lately seem to be on 6 ISB and 2 Lahore.
 
User001
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:26 pm

Ah not sure then. Winter (and next summer) for MAN is loaded as 7 ISB/2 LHE, but obviously can change.
 
David_itl
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:05 pm

First but of news I've seen relating to MAN out of the World Routes conference in Guangzhou, No mention of a possible Hainan CAN-MAN link but instead the old 2 favourtes that stubbornly refuse to happen

"Airports and airlines in Shanghai, China and Manchester, England are missing out on a 160,000-passenger market annually if the nonstop route between the two cities is not being used, UK-based Manchester Airport executives said at World Routes 2018.... Despite interests from other airlines, one of the issues is that the air rights from Shanghai to Manchester are given to Air China by Chinese authorities. However, Air China has not used this route despite getting the rights for two years. Airlines must reapply for these rights every year.... optimistic that authorities will give it to an airline that will utilize the route. He thinks China Eastern Airlines would be ideal"

"another major untapped market is Bangkok, Thailand, where there are already large numbers of passengers coming in via London. He thinks Manchester is the largest unserved route from the Thai airlines' perspective and should be a priority soon... the team has spent a lot time on the two cities and hopes to have something firm by summer 2019."

http://atwonline.com/airports-routes/manchester-airport-execs-shanghai-manchester-market-severely-unserved


Didn't know about the annual rights renewal in China. Makes it all the more frustrating that it almost appears to be a reflex reaction for Air China to get the nod. As for Thai, do they have the right number of aircraft to start the route and are the delays caused by turmoil there?
 
User001
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:45 am

First but of news I've seen relating to MAN out of the World Routes conference in Guangzhou, No mention of a possible Hainan CAN-MAN link


The CAN-MAN link not on there as according to online articles, it’s now been announced by the chairman Mr Wehnzing of CAN Airport as one of 29 new routes starting in the next year, so, no need to be on the wish list anymore.
 
David_itl
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:48 pm

some more bits and bobs out of World Routes -taken from anna aero's reports (Ive estimated all numbers)

In the list of unserved Detroit markets in the last 12 months, MAN is top of the pile with 14,000 searches

However MAN has its own charts
1 way bookings from May 2017 to April 2018

Bangkok 84,000
Sydney 37,000
Bombay 31,000
Perth 29,000
Shanghai 27,000
Melbourne 25,000
Johanesburg 24,000
Delhi 24,000
Kuala Lumpur 22,000
Phuket 21,000


Skyscanner searches 12 months ending August 2018
Bangkok 2.5 MILLION!!
Sydney SYD 750,000
Denpasar-Bali 650,000
Melbourne 450,000
Kuala Lumpur 440,000
Brisbane 400,000
Manila 400,000
Tokyo 375,000
Cochi, India 350,000
Auckland 350,000
 
Samrnpage
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:09 pm

David_itl wrote:
some more bits and bobs out of World Routes -taken from anna aero's reports (Ive estimated all numbers)

In the list of unserved Detroit markets in the last 12 months, MAN is top of the pile with 14,000 searches

However MAN has its own charts
1 way bookings from May 2017 to April 2018

Bangkok 84,000
Sydney 37,000
Bombay 31,000
Perth 29,000
Shanghai 27,000
Melbourne 25,000
Johanesburg 24,000
Delhi 24,000
Kuala Lumpur 22,000
Phuket 21,000


Skyscanner searches 12 months ending August 2018
Bangkok 2.5 MILLION!!
Sydney SYD 750,000
Denpasar-Bali 650,000
Melbourne 450,000
Kuala Lumpur 440,000
Brisbane 400,000
Manila 400,000
Tokyo 375,000
Cochi, India 350,000
Auckland 350,000


Is this the bookings people have made starting at MAN and connecting through another hub with another airline? Just trying to make some sense of the numbers.
 
David_itl
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:48 pm

Yes- they are all the unserved/underserved markets. Obviously BOM will drop off the list with it starting in November - Phuket is a fortnightly charter
 
User001
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:22 pm

Phuket is now weekly this winter.

Also in the Anna.aero articles, MAN is one of Billund is top 10 routes for revenue.
 
Armodeen
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:25 pm

BKK has stupid numbers, surely someone can make it work?!
 
DobboDobbo
Topic Author
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:00 am

David_itl wrote:
some more bits and bobs out of World Routes -taken from anna aero's reports (Ive estimated all numbers)

In the list of unserved Detroit markets in the last 12 months, MAN is top of the pile with 14,000 searches

However MAN has its own charts
1 way bookings from May 2017 to April 2018

Bangkok 84,000
Sydney 37,000
Bombay 31,000
Perth 29,000
Shanghai 27,000
Melbourne 25,000
Johanesburg 24,000
Delhi 24,000
Kuala Lumpur 22,000
Phuket 21,000


Skyscanner searches 12 months ending August 2018
Bangkok 2.5 MILLION!!
Sydney SYD 750,000
Denpasar-Bali 650,000
Melbourne 450,000
Kuala Lumpur 440,000
Brisbane 400,000
Manila 400,000
Tokyo 375,000
Cochi, India 350,000
Auckland 350,000


I'm not sure I understand the numbers either - is "one way bookings" the same as "one stop one way" (i.e. Suggesting that circa 42,000 passengers did MAN-BKK vv?

If so, those numbers are surprisingly low. For example:

1 - this report from OAG suggested that MAN-BKK experienced 133,500 one stop bookings in 2015. 84,000 over another 12 month period suggests a significant drop in numbers.

https://3rxg9qea18zhtl6s2u8jammft-wpeng ... Report.pdf

2 - this article from blue Swan daily suggests that inn2016 the MAN-Australia O&D market is around 220k "two way passengers". I know this isn't quite comparing apples with apples, but I'd expect MAN-SYD/MEL/PER to represent the vast majority of that 220k. Even if you aggregate them above and double them, it gets to 91k.

https://blueswandaily.com/qantas-looks- ... to-europe/


Both of these suggest a declining market which feels unlikely because:

1 - these numbers are clearly part of a MAG advertising/promotional strategy at world routes; and

2 - whilst the overall passenger numbers are flat at MAN the underlying growth in long haul is roughly 10% year on year.

I suppose this is a very long winded way of saying I don't think I fully understand the numbers!!!
 
Samrnpage
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:17 am

Armodeen wrote:
BKK has stupid numbers, surely someone can make it work?!


A few factors could be at play. Thai airways has made a heavy loss this year so expanding into new market might not be high on their agenda, they only have 80 planes and they can send them elsewhere, have to remember BA, KLM, AF, EK, TK are all one stop options so its not a completely untapped market.

If thai wont do it though, who would? I dont think Virgin would, nor scoot or AirAsia. Its a tricky one and probably why a route that has so much demand, doesnt actually have a direct flight. Unless Thai does it, I doubt anyone will.
 
Armodeen
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:48 am

I feel it’s suited to Thomas Cook, especially if they could do a deal with Bangkok airways (etc) at the Thai end for local connections.
 
jubaexpress
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Re: MAN news - 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:52 am

Samrnpage wrote:
Armodeen wrote:
BKK has stupid numbers, surely someone can make it work?!


A few factors could be at play. Thai airways has made a heavy loss this year so expanding into new market might not be high on their agenda, they only have 80 planes and they can send them elsewhere, have to remember BA, KLM, AF, EK, TK are all one stop options so its not a completely untapped market.

If thai wont do it though, who would? I dont think Virgin would, nor scoot or AirAsia. Its a tricky one and probably why a route that has so much demand, doesnt actually have a direct flight. Unless Thai does it, I doubt anyone will.


Forgetting Lufthansa, Austrian, Swiss, Finnair, Etihad, Qatar, Oman air, Ethiopian airlines soon might sell you a connection, Jet will likely also sell you a connection. Cathay is a bit of a back track, but you could go that way round, possibly also via Singapore.

Too much capacity possible from one market. It's a leisure market, with very cheap tickets available almost constantly, so given these variables how can you calculate the direct flight boost? I think it would be hard. If you're going to Asia I think most people are sensitised to having one stop over for a cheap price, vs. having to change to get to the Canaries, which most wouldn't tolerate.
 
MANMatthew
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Apr 17, 2017 4:40 pm

Re: MAN news - 2018

Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:50 pm

jubaexpress wrote:
Samrnpage wrote:
Armodeen wrote:
BKK has stupid numbers, surely someone can make it work?!


A few factors could be at play. Thai airways has made a heavy loss this year so expanding into new market might not be high on their agenda, they only have 80 planes and they can send them elsewhere, have to remember BA, KLM, AF, EK, TK are all one stop options so its not a completely untapped market.

If thai wont do it though, who would? I dont think Virgin would, nor scoot or AirAsia. Its a tricky one and probably why a route that has so much demand, doesnt actually have a direct flight. Unless Thai does it, I doubt anyone will.



Forgetting Lufthansa, Austrian, Swiss, Finnair, Etihad, Qatar, Oman air, Ethiopian airlines soon might sell you a connection, Jet will likely also sell you a connection. Cathay is a bit of a back track, but you could go that way round, possibly also via Singapore.

Too much capacity possible from one market. It's a leisure market, with very cheap tickets available almost constantly, so given these variables how can you calculate the direct flight boost? I think it would be hard. If you're going to Asia I think most people are sensitised to having one stop over for a cheap price, vs. having to change to get to the Canaries, which most wouldn't tolerate.


These are all great points and explain why looking at number of trips booked or number of searches only tell part of the story.

Case in point - I have just booked MAN-BKK return for next April. Just over 16 hours total travel time with the best airline in the business IMO (QR), new planes, pleasant transit and not massively longer than a non-stop. And all for £349.

I would love to see a non-stopper, but not sure how it would work commercially in the current environment.
 
User avatar
seemyseems
Posts: 438
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2009 12:42 am

Re: MAN news - 2018

Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:09 am

I just spotted the new Embraer on the ramp, does anyone know why it’s there?
seemyseems in ATL
 
PeteKMCFC
Posts: 20
Joined: Sat Jul 29, 2017 7:25 pm

Re: MAN news - 2018

Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:56 am

seemyseems wrote:
I just spotted the new Embraer on the ramp, does anyone know why it’s there?


The Embraer E2 (PR-ZGQ) is currently on a tour and is at MAN today to conduct a couple of customer demo flights - although I'm not sure who for.

Cheers

Pete
 
tomkell92
Posts: 132
Joined: Mon Nov 12, 2012 4:20 pm

Re: MAN news - 2018

Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:50 am

It's in MAN for BA CityFlyer who are going to get a demo flight in the aircraft today.
Tom
 
User001
Posts: 927
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 2:18 pm

Re: MAN news - 2018

Tue Sep 25, 2018 7:07 am

EasyJet are switching MAN-SXF to MAN-TXL from March 31st. TXL is often claimed to be the preferred Berlin airport so should be a positive switch.
 
DobboDobbo
Topic Author
Posts: 891
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:02 am

Re: MAN news - 2018

Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:25 pm

MANMatthew wrote:
jubaexpress wrote:
Samrnpage wrote:

A few factors could be at play. Thai airways has made a heavy loss this year so expanding into new market might not be high on their agenda, they only have 80 planes and they can send them elsewhere, have to remember BA, KLM, AF, EK, TK are all one stop options so its not a completely untapped market.

If thai wont do it though, who would? I dont think Virgin would, nor scoot or AirAsia. Its a tricky one and probably why a route that has so much demand, doesnt actually have a direct flight. Unless Thai does it, I doubt anyone will.



Forgetting Lufthansa, Austrian, Swiss, Finnair, Etihad, Qatar, Oman air, Ethiopian airlines soon might sell you a connection, Jet will likely also sell you a connection. Cathay is a bit of a back track, but you could go that way round, possibly also via Singapore.

Too much capacity possible from one market. It's a leisure market, with very cheap tickets available almost constantly, so given these variables how can you calculate the direct flight boost? I think it would be hard. If you're going to Asia I think most people are sensitised to having one stop over for a cheap price, vs. having to change to get to the Canaries, which most wouldn't tolerate.


These are all great points and explain why looking at number of trips booked or number of searches only tell part of the story.

Case in point - I have just booked MAN-BKK return for next April. Just over 16 hours total travel time with the best airline in the business IMO (QR), new planes, pleasant transit and not massively longer than a non-stop. And all for £349.

I would love to see a non-stopper, but not sure how it would work commercially in the current environment.


I have stumbled upon a particularly informative blog about a potential BKK-MAN route for TG. The conclusions are interesting, and the underlying statistics are of particular interest to pour over.

http://airline-updates.blogspot.com/201 ... r.html?m=1
 
jubaexpress
Posts: 106
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 10:51 am

Re: MAN news - 2018

Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:47 am

DobboDobbo wrote:
MANMatthew wrote:
jubaexpress wrote:


Forgetting Lufthansa, Austrian, Swiss, Finnair, Etihad, Qatar, Oman air, Ethiopian airlines soon might sell you a connection, Jet will likely also sell you a connection. Cathay is a bit of a back track, but you could go that way round, possibly also via Singapore.

Too much capacity possible from one market. It's a leisure market, with very cheap tickets available almost constantly, so given these variables how can you calculate the direct flight boost? I think it would be hard. If you're going to Asia I think most people are sensitised to having one stop over for a cheap price, vs. having to change to get to the Canaries, which most wouldn't tolerate.


These are all great points and explain why looking at number of trips booked or number of searches only tell part of the story.

Case in point - I have just booked MAN-BKK return for next April. Just over 16 hours total travel time with the best airline in the business IMO (QR), new planes, pleasant transit and not massively longer than a non-stop. And all for £349.

I would love to see a non-stopper, but not sure how it would work commercially in the current environment.


I have stumbled upon a particularly informative blog about a potential BKK-MAN route for TG. The conclusions are interesting, and the underlying statistics are of particular interest to pour over.

http://airline-updates.blogspot.com/201 ... r.html?m=1


DobboDobbo, grateful for you pointing out this blog, someone has clearly put quite a lot of effort into this. and the conclusions are indeed interesting.

I think my first reaction on this, unfortunately, is that TG suffers from the failure of the last mover. The breakdown of the forecast passengers per flight really clearly indicates the majority of traffic is going to BKK or Phuket. If TG tried to enter at this stage, any of the airlines we mentioned above would launch a flash sale, or in the case of EK, just throw another frame at the problem, and TG would be swallowed. The analysis doesn't show any sensitivity analysis for the coefficient to calculate how many would still move to a new direct flight vs the many cheap one stop options. This for me is problem number 1.

The second are not so much problems as questions, as I'm a bit lost. The top markets via BKK from MAN: what does this mean? There is no flight to BKK from MAN, and the nearest TG connection point that's logical is either Scandinavia or Frankfurt. Is this just current passengers travelling to/from these markets to Manchester which TG also offers a connection to?

Then the next slide shows comparison against other Scandinavian markets (conveniently forgetting that these are Star Alliance hubs so not entirely O&D): why are the numbers in the table different for MAN than in the previous graph.Got a bit lost here too on how he calculated this.

The finally the calculation table shows a projected 35% of market share for TG on MAN-BKK. There is no sensitivity analysis performed here, and critically also no justification for such an enormous figure. I think the price he gives is a bit disingenuous as well.

I find this sort of thing very interesting and would like to hear more. But I have some questions.
 
User001
Posts: 927
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 2:18 pm

Re: MAN news - 2018

Thu Sep 27, 2018 10:19 am

Ryanair to begin 4 new routes from Manchester next summer. Bordeaux, Gothenburg, Marseille and Nantes. All 2 weekly and all begin in April.
 
User001
Posts: 927
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 2:18 pm

Re: MAN news - 2018

Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:50 pm

2 more Ryanair routes announced. Marrakesh and Thessaloniki.

With Bordeaux, Marseille, Thessaloniki and Marrakesh, seems Ryanair really going after Easyjet!
 
DobboDobbo
Topic Author
Posts: 891
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:02 am

Re: MAN news - 2018

Thu Sep 27, 2018 3:19 pm

AF switch CDG-MAN to Joon from 31 March 2019.
 
User avatar
seemyseems
Posts: 438
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2009 12:42 am

Re: MAN news - 2018

Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:38 pm

Does anyone know which airlines will be first to fly from the new pier?
seemyseems in ATL

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