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Themotionman
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American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:30 pm

Considering we already have a network thread for United and Delta, I thought it would be a good idea to complete the US3 off with an American thread.

So could we see the following?
CLT- More European destinations - MAN? LIS?
ORD- Finally making a real challenge to United's international network from ORD or could we see AA follow UA with more EAS communities?
PHL- More secondary European destinations
DFW- More seasonal domestic leisure destinations.
LAX- Maybe more off-peak flights that don't interfere with busy times when the gates are maxed out
JFK- What is next on the chopping block? EDI? CVG? CLE? YUL?
PHX- Would AA supplement BA with a second daily flight?
MIA- African flights in the long term?

Fire away...
 
alasizon
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:31 pm

Themotionman wrote:
PHX- Would AA supplement BA with a second daily flight?

Fire away...


BA is already bringing back the 2nd daily flight effective March, I can't imagine you'll see a third daily.
Manager on Duty & Tower Planner
 
FSDan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:05 pm

I could see JFK-EDI moving to PHL-EDI, although there must be some reason they've kept it at JFK thus far while moving ZRH to PHL and cutting JFK-MAN... Another one to watch might be JFK-MXP. On the one hand, this is an important route with a lot of premium traffic (banking, fashion, etc.). On the other hand, AA is up against DL/AZ, EK, soon IG, and also indirectly UA over at EWR.

Overall, I'm not sure how much more room AA has for international expansion. They have 8 more 789s coming, and that's the only widebody lift on order at the moment. Several more 763s are supposed to retire in the next few years, as well as the 333s. Utilization can be improved some, but I don't know if now is the time that AA would choose to launch a MIA-Africa flight. Who knows... perhaps a winter seasonal MIA-CPT flight would be a good way to take advantages of fleet slack during the slower months to gain new revenue.
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sagechan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:15 pm

I think most likely you'll see more ORD/DFW/MIA connected to LUS cities, especially as gate space is gained in ORD and DFW. Would be surprised if a new international route that has been announced is launched this year, with the possible exception of LAX-MEL if the QF JV can get approved. Could see some additional secondary Europe to PHL/ORD announced for S2019 late in the year.
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AAtakeMeAway
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:15 pm

It's been posted on this site that DFW-EYW is coming. Can anyone confirm?
 
Corpsnerd09
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:20 pm

AAtakeMeAway wrote:
It's been posted on this site that DFW-EYW is coming. Can anyone confirm?


Yes it was announced recently.
 
AAtakeMeAway
Posts: 330
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:31 pm

Corpsnerd09 wrote:
AAtakeMeAway wrote:
It's been posted on this site that DFW-EYW is coming. Can anyone confirm?


Yes it was announced recently.


When does the service start and when will it be loaded?
 
acentauri
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:46 am

TLV returning in 2018.
 
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AAlaxfan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:06 am

acentauri wrote:
TLV returning in 2018.


I don't see TLV coming back until they settle the TWA lawsuit. I believe the Israeli courts still assert that AA still owes the workers money. Unless that has been settled, any AA property can be seized, sold and used for payment.
Grumpy. Not a dwarf, not an attitude. It's a lifestyle.
 
ahj2000
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:42 am

AAlaxfan wrote:
acentauri wrote:
TLV returning in 2018.


I don't see TLV coming back until they settle the TWA lawsuit. I believe the Israeli courts still assert that AA still owes the workers money. Unless that has been settled, any AA property can be seized, sold and used for payment.

Gown much do they really owe? With NYC-TLV being a money pit, PHL being a strong monopoly opportunity, and a large Jewish population in Miami And in South America, it make sense for American to Ben in that market.
-Andrés Juánez
 
Zidane
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:51 am

I'd love to see DFW-UVF. AA hasn't much to the Caribbean from Dallas, and this particular destination is doing rather well for them from CLT, MIA, and PHL.
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:12 am

Themotionman wrote:
Considering we already have a network thread for United and Delta, I thought it would be a good idea to complete the US3 off with an American thread.

So could we see the following?
CLT- More European destinations - MAN? LIS?
ORD- Finally making a real challenge to United's international network from ORD or could we see AA follow UA with more EAS communities?
PHL- More secondary European destinations
DFW- More seasonal domestic leisure destinations.
LAX- Maybe more off-peak flights that don't interfere with busy times when the gates are maxed out
JFK- What is next on the chopping block? EDI? CVG? CLE? YUL?
PHX- Would AA supplement BA with a second daily flight?
MIA- African flights in the long term?

Fire away...


Thanks for starting this.

I think the following are possibilities at first glance.
Phoenix-Colorado Springs 1x Daily CR7 (was served 5x daily 733 by AW in 1999!)
Phoenix-Raleigh 1x Daily A319
Phoenix-Nashville 1x Daily A319
Dallas-Buffalo 1x Daily E75
Dallas-Providence 1x Daily A319
Dallas-Kalispell 1x Daily CR9 (Seasonal)
Charlotte-New Haven (CT) 1x Daily CR9
Charlotte-Punta Gorda (FL) 2x Daily CR9 (Maybe, just maybe, but its a G4 controlled market)
Charlotte-Sao Paulo 4x Weekly A332 (Seasonal)
Los Angeles-Seoul 1x Daily B789
Los Angeles-Taipei 1x Daily B789
Los Angeles-Detroit 1x Daily A319
Los Angeles-Boise 1x Daily CR7
Los Angeles-Spokane 1x Daily CR7
Los Angeles-Melbourne 1x Daily B789
Los Angeles-Cleveland 1x Daily A319
Miami-Johannesburg 1x Daily B789
Philadelphia-Berlin 1x Daily B76W
Philadelphia-Dusseldorf 1x Daily B76W
Philadelphia-Sao Paulo 3x Weekly A332 (Seasonal)
Philadelphia-Mexico City 1x Daily A319
Chicago-Manchester (NH) 2x Daily CR9
Chicago-Anchorage 1x Daily A319 (Seasonal)


With Air Wisconsin going away as an Eagle partner there's a lot of 50 seat capacity going away and general upgauging across the system.
A Traddie wannaby---UA DL LH NW AA --- Next DEN-IND (to be decided) Any suggestions?
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
JRL3289
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:30 am

ahj2000 wrote:
AAlaxfan wrote:
acentauri wrote:
TLV returning in 2018.


I don't see TLV coming back until they settle the TWA lawsuit. I believe the Israeli courts still assert that AA still owes the workers money. Unless that has been settled, any AA property can be seized, sold and used for payment.

Gown much do they really owe? With NYC-TLV being a money pit, PHL being a strong monopoly opportunity, and a large Jewish population in Miami And in South America, it make sense for American to Ben in that market.


Has it ever actually been confirmed or just an A.net myth that the alleged severance obligations are the reason for keeping AA out of Israel? IIRC, AA/US continued operating the route for a while after the merger. I think the reality is that operationally and financially TLV can be challenging, and the market is very concentrated. US was solely reliant on PHL to provide eastbound connectivity to Europe and beyond. Any of the markets relevant to TLV (e.g. NYC, MIA, LAX, SFO, WAS, BOS, CHI) already have service to LHR, MAD or both, so it's much easier for AA to simply push connections over those hubs instead. There's a reason IB recently upgauged TLV to an all-A333 operation... might have something to do with US connections?
 
bridge29
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:44 am

I don't know that we'll see a lot more flight announcements for this year, but here's what I'd like to see happen:

PHL-SJC or PHL-OAK
PHL-YHZ return of summer seasonal
PHL-PDX year-round

For Europe:
PHL-TXL
PHL-VIE

Asia:
PHL-PEK
PHL-NRT

DFW-MDT
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 143
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:46 am

Thanks for starting this. I think it’s sensible to round out the rest of the US3. As for my predictions, the only thing I’d be fairly confident about right now in 2018 would be additional TATL announcements out of PHL. I can’t think of any obvious new routes to add, but maybe extending some of the seasonal routes to yearlong.
 
mhkansan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:19 am

DFW-MDT needs to happen yesterday! I'm hoping for a route announcement for South Africa this year. Both DFW and ORD are very gate constrained. I imagine we'll see more CLT-midwest growth as I think those routes have done very well.

I'd really like to see more ORD-Europe return to year-round service for W18. I hope that EI joins Oneworld this year, and Dublin goes year-round.

There is a lot of talk of expanding the network this year, and we're all hopeful of that. I think the fleet will be the limiting factor. With more S80s being parked than new jets coming online, I think the mainline and regional fleets both shrink a little this year.
 
tcaeyx
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:38 am

SumChristianus wrote:
Los Angeles-Seoul 1x Daily B789
Los Angeles-Taipei 1x Daily B789


TPE was always the less plausible of these two cities needed to round out their TPAC network. Really hoping that AA will swoop in and pick up the frequency that CI is moving to ONT.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:53 am

tcaeyx wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
Los Angeles-Seoul 1x Daily B789
Los Angeles-Taipei 1x Daily B789


TPE was always the less plausible of these two cities needed to round out their TPAC network. Really hoping that AA will swoop in and pick up the frequency that CI is moving to ONT.


AA actually did serve TPE once, for about six months from SJC.

What about DFW-TPE? Surprised that AA hasn't started that one yet.

Two other routes I could see coming back are BUR-DFW and LGB-DFW. Maybe BFL-DFW also. AA recently resumed OAK-DFW.
 
us330
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:13 am

JRL3289 wrote:
ahj2000 wrote:
AAlaxfan wrote:

I don't see TLV coming back until they settle the TWA lawsuit. I believe the Israeli courts still assert that AA still owes the workers money. Unless that has been settled, any AA property can be seized, sold and used for payment.

Gown much do they really owe? With NYC-TLV being a money pit, PHL being a strong monopoly opportunity, and a large Jewish population in Miami And in South America, it make sense for American to Ben in that market.


Has it ever actually been confirmed or just an A.net myth that the alleged severance obligations are the reason for keeping AA out of Israel? IIRC, AA/US continued operating the route for a while after the merger. I think the reality is that operationally and financially TLV can be challenging, and the market is very concentrated. US was solely reliant on PHL to provide eastbound connectivity to Europe and beyond. Any of the markets relevant to TLV (e.g. NYC, MIA, LAX, SFO, WAS, BOS, CHI) already have service to LHR, MAD or both, so it's much easier for AA to simply push connections over those hubs instead. There's a reason IB recently upgauged TLV to an all-A333 operation... might have something to do with US connections?


This is an A.net myth that has somehow been perpetuated throughout the years.

American has no obligations to the former TWA employees per consistent rulings in Israeli courts.

American bought TWA as an asset purchase agreement while TWA was going through bankruptcy. American could pick and choose what assets it wanted to purchase. American never purchased TWA's Middle East assets, including the Tel Aviv operation. There was thus no inheritance of TWA's obligations to it's Israeli employees.

While the route did generate high loads with US Airways, the problem that it always had was that unlike other transatlantic routes, a PHL-TLV operation requires more than one aircraft to operate a daily flight--so in terms of opportunity cost, you have to look at what two transatlantic daily flights (or other operations with the A330s) would bring to the network. Currently, AA network planners think that the alternative operations to TLV>operating a daily flight to TLV.

And despite what some Israeli newspapers and commentators may think and toss around, AA's partners from Islamic countries (RJ, QR, and MH) have nothing to do with AA's decision-making as to whether to serve TLV. AA has notoriously frosty relations with QR and barely interacts with MH. RJ is part of the ATI with BA, AY, and IB, and Jordan is at peace with Israel.

It's really simple--if American thought they could make money flying to Tel Aviv, they would. Right now, they either a) don't think they can or b) think that alternative options using the aircraft that would be dedicated to a TLV route bring in more than flying to TLV would.

Yes--it also doesn't help matters that American would already be at a disadvantage in serving Tel Aviv from PHL, a secondary o&d market for Israel that would largely rely on connecting traffic to fill planes, whereas DL and UA are flying from places such as SFO, EWR, and JFK with a very high percentage of o&d traffic bound to and from Israel.
 
Themotionman
Topic Author
Posts: 142
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:42 am

bridge29 wrote:
PHL-YHZ return of summer seasonal


With the WS codeshare ending at the end of July, American are at a significant disadvantage in the US-Canada market becuase they are only one of the US3 who are competing without a partner on the other side of the pond. This means that any transborder flight has to be done by AA, this means that AA should expand in Canada to remain competitive. This makes routes like PHL-YHZ more likely.

Could we see the following?
ORD-YOW - On an MQ ERJ-140
DCA-YOW - Two capital cities-Surely a DCA flight would be preferred over the current UA IAD flight.
ORD-YWJ - On an MQ ERJ-140
ORD-YXE
ORD-YEG - 82,000 passengers on this route - Could sustain UA and AA both
DFW-YEG
LAX-YEG


Something to keep those 50 seaters busy.

On another note, what is the largest route (by passenger count) that UA serves but AA does not from ORD
 
cm642
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:00 am

For me in terms of Phoenix these seem to be the most obvious in my mind:

Realistically,

PHX - BNA
PHX - COS
PHX - ICT
PHX - RDU
PHX - TUL

Wishful thinking,

PHX - FRA
PHX - LHR
PHX - NRT
 
jplatts
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:21 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
Two other routes I could see coming back are BUR-DFW and LGB-DFW. Maybe BFL-DFW also. AA recently resumed OAK-DFW.


I agree that AA could bring back BUR-DFW nonstop service, given that BUR is currently one of 4 destinations (along with MDW, OAK, and ECP) that WN serves nonstop from DAL but that has no nonstop service from DFW on any airline, even though AA has already announced plans to resume DFW-OAK nonstop service and to start DFW-ECP nonstop service.
 
FSDan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:33 pm

cm642 wrote:
Realistically,

PHX - BNA
PHX - COS
PHX - ICT
PHX - RDU
PHX - TUL


I agree these are realistic. I'd probably add PHX-MSY as well. These are probably the biggest holes in the PHX network at present. I also wouldn't be blown away by PHX-XNA, or a return to PHX-CLE or PHX-FLL.
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ahj2000
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:02 pm

mhkansan wrote:
DFW-MDT needs to happen yesterday! I'm hoping for a route announcement for South Africa this year. Both DFW and ORD are very gate constrained. I imagine we'll see more CLT-midwest growth as I think those routes have done very well.

I'd really like to see more ORD-Europe return to year-round service for W18. I hope that EI joins Oneworld this year, and Dublin goes year-round.

There is a lot of talk of expanding the network this year, and we're all hopeful of that. I think the fleet will be the limiting factor. With more S80s being parked than new jets coming online, I think the mainline and regional fleets both shrink a little this year.

DFW has a good few routes that need to be added, especially to the Northeast and Cali. Charlotte has some Midwest to grow to as well still, but i believe that they are almost done with their expansion to the Midwest from Charlotte
-Andrés Juánez
 
BigGSFO
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:39 pm

If the AA/QF JV ever gets signed, we would probably see a resumption of LAX-AKL and the addition of LAX-MEL.
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:50 pm

LAX-AKL is still served, just seasonal, which makes sense for the small size of the market.
A Traddie wannaby---UA DL LH NW AA --- Next DEN-IND (to be decided) Any suggestions?
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
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AASAP777
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:58 pm

Well, I hope AA makes some expansion to the only dots it has not connected in Central America, and that is, DFW-SAP. All other major Central American gateways have a daily or weekly DFW flight, and for Honduras there's RTB (albeit seasonal). I hope they consider this one sometime. When I worked in AA, that was some sort of a dream that almost 28 years later, it has not come true yet. But of course, let's see if we finally get after thoughtful thinking. AA's still at disadvantage connecting to the central-western US and Canada and an option through DFW could easily close those gaps.
Bendiga Dios la pródiga tierra en que nací....God bless the prodigal land where I was born.
H O N D U R A S! Five star country...Un país de cinco estrellas.
 
paulsaz
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:22 pm

Speaking of the WestJet code share ending, PHX-YYC should return along with restoring mainline to PHX-YEG and PHX-YVR. Also does anyone know how many passengers AA gets with the InterJet code share?
 
CLTflier
Posts: 25
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:49 pm

ahj2000 wrote:
mhkansan wrote:
DFW-MDT needs to happen yesterday! I'm hoping for a route announcement for South Africa this year. Both DFW and ORD are very gate constrained. I imagine we'll see more CLT-midwest growth as I think those routes have done very well.

I'd really like to see more ORD-Europe return to year-round service for W18. I hope that EI joins Oneworld this year, and Dublin goes year-round.

There is a lot of talk of expanding the network this year, and we're all hopeful of that. I think the fleet will be the limiting factor. With more S80s being parked than new jets coming online, I think the mainline and regional fleets both shrink a little this year.

DFW has a good few routes that need to be added, especially to the Northeast and Cali. Charlotte has some Midwest to grow to as well still, but i believe that they are almost done with their expansion to the Midwest from Charlotte


Which routes do you think will be added?
 
CLTflier
Posts: 25
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:22 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:49 pm

ahj2000 wrote:
mhkansan wrote:
DFW-MDT needs to happen yesterday! I'm hoping for a route announcement for South Africa this year. Both DFW and ORD are very gate constrained. I imagine we'll see more CLT-midwest growth as I think those routes have done very well.

I'd really like to see more ORD-Europe return to year-round service for W18. I hope that EI joins Oneworld this year, and Dublin goes year-round.

There is a lot of talk of expanding the network this year, and we're all hopeful of that. I think the fleet will be the limiting factor. With more S80s being parked than new jets coming online, I think the mainline and regional fleets both shrink a little this year.

DFW has a good few routes that need to be added, especially to the Northeast and Cali. Charlotte has some Midwest to grow to as well still, but i believe that they are almost done with their expansion to the Midwest from Charlotte


Which routes do you think will be added from CLT?
 
Themotionman
Topic Author
Posts: 142
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:33 pm

What about a sub-daily ASU?
 
FSDan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:40 pm

Themotionman wrote:
What about a sub-daily ASU?


AA flew MIA-ASU for a little while not all that long ago (maybe 1 or 2 years back?), and it didn't last very long. I remember hearing that there was something about the way sales distribution had to be done in Paraguay that killed it.
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PVD757
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:54 pm

PVD-DFW and MIA seem like reasonable adds.
 
ahj2000
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:08 pm

CLTflier wrote:
ahj2000 wrote:
mhkansan wrote:
DFW-MDT needs to happen yesterday! I'm hoping for a route announcement for South Africa this year. Both DFW and ORD are very gate constrained. I imagine we'll see more CLT-midwest growth as I think those routes have done very well.

I'd really like to see more ORD-Europe return to year-round service for W18. I hope that EI joins Oneworld this year, and Dublin goes year-round.

There is a lot of talk of expanding the network this year, and we're all hopeful of that. I think the fleet will be the limiting factor. With more S80s being parked than new jets coming online, I think the mainline and regional fleets both shrink a little this year.

DFW has a good few routes that need to be added, especially to the Northeast and Cali. Charlotte has some Midwest to grow to as well still, but i believe that they are almost done with their expansion to the Midwest from Charlotte


Which routes do you think will be added from CLT?

JUSt going down a list of Eagle destinations, possibilities include ICT, FNT, MHK, SUX, AZO, FSD, GRB, (less likely ATW) There could also be some Louisiana airports currently served only from DFW. Not all will ever get service to charlotte, but AEX,LFT, LCH, MLU are candidates in my mind. Fort Smith over in Arkansas too.
-Andrés Juánez
 
BTRfan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:33 pm

ahj2000 wrote:
CLTflier wrote:
ahj2000 wrote:
DFW has a good few routes that need to be added, especially to the Northeast and Cali. Charlotte has some Midwest to grow to as well still, but i believe that they are almost done with their expansion to the Midwest from Charlotte


Which routes do you think will be added from CLT?

JUSt going down a list of Eagle destinations, possibilities include ICT, FNT, MHK, SUX, AZO, FSD, GRB, (less likely ATW) There could also be some Louisiana airports currently served only from DFW. Not all will ever get service to charlotte, but AEX,LFT, LCH, MLU are candidates in my mind. Fort Smith over in Arkansas too.

Would be nice if BTR to ORD and MIA was added
 
OKCDCA
Posts: 161
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:42 pm

Would love to see OKC-DCA for selfish reasons but I would really like to see OKC-MIA to really connect OKC to the rest of the AA network in the Caribbean. Right now, most destinations in the Caribbean require a double connect through either DFW or CLT then MIA. And a lot of those double connects require an overnight in MIA with most the flights leaving in the morning.
 
alasizon
Posts: 1390
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:08 pm

paulsaz wrote:
Speaking of the WestJet code share ending, PHX-YYC should return along with restoring mainline to PHX-YEG and PHX-YVR. Also does anyone know how many passengers AA gets with the InterJet code share?


YYC should definitely get re-added this winter. If YEG goes Mainline, it cuts down on frequency and most of the travellers on this route right now are extremely pleased with it being 2x daily and it could probably sustain a 3rd flight Th-Su. YVR is Mainline 2x daily except for November to early December.

FSDan wrote:
cm642 wrote:
Realistically,

PHX - BNA
PHX - COS
PHX - ICT
PHX - RDU
PHX - TUL


I agree these are realistic. I'd probably add PHX-MSY as well. These are probably the biggest holes in the PHX network at present. I also wouldn't be blown away by PHX-XNA, or a return to PHX-CLE or PHX-FLL.

PHX has the biggest holes, the problem is gate availability during peak banks for Mainline and aircraft availability for Eagle. I'd place COS, ICT and MSY as the three biggest markets that need the service but you'll probably see some more PacNW adds before you get all three of these.
Manager on Duty & Tower Planner
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:17 pm

Themotionman wrote:
CLT- More European destinations - MAN?


As much as I'd like to see this, I don't believe it is likely.

AA has cut JFK-MAN and has significantly reduced ORD-MAN to a short summer seasonal.

I think both JFK and ORD have a larger O&D with MAN, and it sounds like CLT are going to struggle with capacity as things stand, so I don't see MAN happening.
 
apodino
Posts: 3295
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:19 pm

FSDan wrote:
I could see JFK-EDI moving to PHL-EDI, although there must be some reason they've kept it at JFK thus far while moving ZRH to PHL and cutting JFK-MAN... Another one to watch might be JFK-MXP. On the one hand, this is an important route with a lot of premium traffic (banking, fashion, etc.). On the other hand, AA is up against DL/AZ, EK, soon IG, and also indirectly UA over at EWR.

Overall, I'm not sure how much more room AA has for international expansion. They have 8 more 789s coming, and that's the only widebody lift on order at the moment. Several more 763s are supposed to retire in the next few years, as well as the 333s. Utilization can be improved some, but I don't know if now is the time that AA would choose to launch a MIA-Africa flight. Who knows... perhaps a winter seasonal MIA-CPT flight would be a good way to take advantages of fleet slack during the slower months to gain new revenue.

You forget about the A350 order that is still on the books technically. I know the airplane is deferred until 2020, and the statements coming from management make it unlikely that this plane will every fly at AA, but technically this is widebody lift that is on Order. My gut thinks that this may be converted to the A330 NEO for commonality purposes as AA is going to need replacement lift for the 767 at some point in the not too distant future.

That being said, not sure what is behind the RDU-LHR flight but I don't see any reason the JV cannot have BA fly this route other than the fact that there is still a FA base in RDU that staffs this flight and this could cause union issues. I can tell you that the loads I have seen on this flight could easily justify running a 788 or a BA 787 on this route as the 777 is just too much lift here.

I dont see any more shifting of widebodies to other domiciles as VP Network Planning Vasu Raja has made it quite clear that they want to concentrate specific widebody types in specific hubs for crew and mx purposes. What that means in the near term is LAX will be a 777 787 base, ORD will be a 787 only base, CLT will be an A330 only base, DFW will be 767, 777, 787s, MIA largely 777s, PHL A330 and 767, and JFK 767, 777. The only issue this is going to cause in the near term is that since the FAs are not yet intergrated, the 757 and 767 routes out of PHL (SNN, BUD, PRG, AMS, LIS, GLA, ZRH) cannot be staffed by PHL FAs. I think this is one of the reasons for the JFK-PHL ramp up that was discussed in one of Enilras recent OAG threads. One thing to note here is all the A330-200s have been refitted with premium economy, so they are essentially a three class cabin now.

Long term internationally LAX-ICN is almost a given, the only reason it hasnt started yet I suspect is gate space in LAX. PHL-HEL would be a route I could see, given the FI one world alliance. TLV is a route that everyone would like to see back, and now AA management admits they pulled the plug too soon on this route. PHL-TXL would be nice to see. PHL-MXP is another hole that I see as well.

Domestically, routes that I think could happen would be DFW-PVD, DFW-BUR, PHX-TUL, PHX-COS, ORD-MHT, and DFW-BUF.
 
flyb
Posts: 549
Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2006 7:39 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:32 pm

The only route I could see potential from YEG for AA is ORD, which is currently a large gap that AA could fill.

Themotionman wrote:
bridge29 wrote:
PHL-YHZ return of summer seasonal


With the WS codeshare ending at the end of July, American are at a significant disadvantage in the US-Canada market becuase they are only one of the US3 who are competing without a partner on the other side of the pond. This means that any transborder flight has to be done by AA, this means that AA should expand in Canada to remain competitive. This makes routes like PHL-YHZ more likely.

Could we see the following?
ORD-YOW - On an MQ ERJ-140
DCA-YOW - Two capital cities-Surely a DCA flight would be preferred over the current UA IAD flight.
ORD-YWJ - On an MQ ERJ-140
ORD-YXE
ORD-YEG - 82,000 passengers on this route - Could sustain UA and AA both
DFW-YEG
LAX-YEG
 
FSDan
Posts: 1790
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:48 pm

apodino wrote:
What that means in the near term is LAX will be a 777 787 base, ORD will be a 787 only base, CLT will be an A330 only base, DFW will be 767, 777, 787s, MIA largely 777s, PHL A330 and 767, and JFK 767, 777.


It seems to me that the 767 bases could pretty easily be consolidated down to MIA and PHL. As of this summer DFW doesn't have any long haul flying on 767s (although I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few DFW-MIA flights on the 763), and JFK just has MAD and CDG. Everything else is at MIA or PHL.

apodino wrote:
TLV is a route that everyone would like to see back, and now AA management admits they pulled the plug too soon on this route. PHL-TXL would be nice to see. PHL-MXP is another hole that I see as well.


When did AA management call pulling out of TLV a mistake?
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
Themotionman
Topic Author
Posts: 142
Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:18 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:53 pm

FSDan wrote:
Themotionman wrote:
What about a sub-daily ASU?


AA flew MIA-ASU for a little while not all that long ago (maybe 1 or 2 years back?), and it didn't last very long. I remember hearing that there was something about the way sales distribution had to be done in Paraguay that killed it.


The route is discussed here https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=585859

There's always a thread you need buried in on a.net somewhere :spin:
 
redwingspilot
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2015 5:37 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:01 pm

FSDan wrote:

apodino wrote:
TLV is a route that everyone would like to see back, and now AA management admits they pulled the plug too soon on this route. PHL-TXL would be nice to see. PHL-MXP is another hole that I see as well.


When did AA management call pulling out of TLV a mistake?


A recent town hall with the VP of Network Planning
 
RvA
Posts: 61
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:37 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:09 pm

us330 wrote:
JRL3289 wrote:
ahj2000 wrote:
RJ is part of the ATI with BA, AY, and IB,


? Could you explain that please and do you have a source for this?

Thanks
 
FSDan
Posts: 1790
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:32 pm

Themotionman wrote:
FSDan wrote:
Themotionman wrote:
What about a sub-daily ASU?


AA flew MIA-ASU for a little while not all that long ago (maybe 1 or 2 years back?), and it didn't last very long. I remember hearing that there was something about the way sales distribution had to be done in Paraguay that killed it.


The route is discussed here https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=585859

There's always a thread you need buried in on a.net somewhere :spin:


Seems like I mis-remembered slightly - taxes, not sales distribution.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
CHI2DFW
Posts: 223
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 1:44 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:46 pm

UA announced earnings and said they will increase capacity at DEN, IAH, and ORD. A combination of new flights and upgauging.

I’m sure AA will defend ORD. DP is speaking tomorrow, let’s see if he hints at anything. Kirby seems to be going after AA in regional markets at ORD, I’m sure that will continue. Where are the gates coming from?
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:16 am

CHI2DFW wrote:
I’m sure AA will defend ORD.


I wonder how much they will though? Will we see any upgauging to mainline?
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:20 am

Will AA ever go back to TLV? If so, which hub would it be launched from?

Also, what are the chances we could see ORD-HNL return?
 
alasizon
Posts: 1390
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:27 am

ADrum23 wrote:
Will AA ever go back to TLV? If so, which hub would it be launched from?

PHL but I suspect that it will be a 2019 add as by then it will be a bit more defined what is happening with the 333s and there are a few other higher priority adds that only consume a single aircraft.

ADrum23 wrote:
Also, what are the chances we could see ORD-HNL return?


Pretty slim, ORD offers very few opportunities that LAX/PHX/DFW don't and I don't believe the local market is that large. Certainly not big enough to support both UA & AA.
Manager on Duty & Tower Planner
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:29 am

alasizon wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Will AA ever go back to TLV? If so, which hub would it be launched from?

PHL but I suspect that it will be a 2019 add as by then it will be a bit more defined what is happening with the 333s and there are a few other higher priority adds that only consume a single aircraft.


What about DFW-TLV?
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