Newbiepilot
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:31 pm

WIederling wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
In Airbus marketing land the A320neo and A320 are the same family yet the 737CL, 737NG, and 737MAX are different families except when of course they talk about how dated the 737 is and then all the 737s are the same.


I feel your hurt.
So that is why WP:EN now only list CEO statistics on the A320 family page and has externalized NEO numbers to a different page
while showing 737 numbers over all generations on ONE page :-)
.. and one can already find the first errors in reporting from that separation
( some noise about B completely outperforming A on NB deliveries.:-)

end of Nov last year lifetime order status
Airbus A320 all types CEO and NEO 14,120
Boeing 737 all types jurrasic, classic, NG MAX 14,292

Add the finalized orders from turn of the year ...


Not hurt at all. Just joking around about how marketing charts can bend the truth or look at numbers creatively to support their point.

United is smart enough to evaluate competing proposals.
 
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EPA001
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:39 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
United is smart enough to evaluate competing proposals.


Of course they are not that smart. No doubt they need the advice from all of us as experts from A-net. :) :) :)
 
CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:43 pm

AFAIK there is a difference of (9864 - 7979 =) 1885 produced planes between the 737 and A320.
The 737 will ramp-up to a rate of 57/month and the A320 to 60/month both by 2019.
With these production rates it takes 628 1/3 month (52.36 years) before the A320 have past the 737 in production numbers. The 737 was introduced in 1968; the A320 in 1988 (wiki).

If we add the 757 into the mix. The A320 is (1885 + 1049=) 2034 behind the 737 and 757.
For now the A320 is much more attractive because its more versatile that the 737. With the A320 an airline can choose for 17" seats and 22" wide aisles, for fast boarding time. Or for 18" seats and 18" aisle for more passenger comfort, a more luxurious traveling experience. Both the A320NEO and 737MAX are made up to date, but I think the narrow cabin layout and bulk cargo handeling are the drawbacks of the 737MAX.
I wouldn't be surprised if the CSeries also get's a 6 abreast seating layout, for up to 4hour flights. (A regional CSeries.) I think that's comparable to a 737MAX200 in passenger (dis)comfort.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:46 pm

The 797 is still a paper tiger. It is not launched. Sales of the A321 and A321neo, are fast filling part of the pool intended for the 797. 3718 A321 have been sold by end of 2017. And A321 sales had a good start in the beginning of this year.
 
marcelh
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:21 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
An airline the size and magnitude of United can afford to pick up A321neo / A321LR as an intermediate solution before the 797 arrives. The commonality with existing A320 and A319 is very high. If they decide to go for 797 in the future, these A321neo / A321LRs can just as well be used on domestic or transcon routes. The ACT tank and plumbing can be removed and you have a near bog standard A321neo.

Or the pick the enhanced A32x which undoubtably will be the answer of Airbus when the 797 hits the market.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:54 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
TA321NEO LR could be a good fit to replace 757 on the NY-UK routes at least.


If UA don't use a B767/787 on EWR-MAN, I could see an attempt to replace the B752 with A321LR and link MAN with other UA hubs like ORD and IAD (again).
 
SelseyBill
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:08 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
An airline the size and magnitude of United can afford to pick up A321neo / A321LR as an intermediate solution before the 797 arrives. The commonality with existing A320 and A319 is very high. If they decide to go for 797 in the future, these A321neo / A321LRs can just as well be used on domestic or transcon routes.


Very possible.

Alternatively, UA could get A321NEO into their fleet relatively quickly; realise what a fine plane it is for them and with probably a very attractive unit price; realise that whole-life costs make the 321 a great profit earner for them and choose not to go for the 797.

It really does depend on what sticker price Boeing are asking for with the 797.......

......and trust me; after the Bombardier debacle; there will be an awful lot of people scrutinising the 797 programme and Boeings' 797 pricing to see if they do exactly what they accused Bombardier of.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:14 pm

DobboDobbo wrote:
capitalflyer wrote:
TA321NEO LR could be a good fit to replace 757 on the NY-UK routes at least.


If UA don't use a B767/787 on EWR-MAN, I could see an attempt to replace the B752 with A321LR and link MAN with other UA hubs like ORD and IAD (again).


The 737MAX can fly EWR-MAN. The longest 737-8 route announced so far is about 3200nm, which is a few hundred miles longer than EWR-MAN. Norwegian has already proved the 737MAX can fly New York to the UK.
 
AaronPGH
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:23 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
capitalflyer wrote:
TA321NEO LR could be a good fit to replace 757 on the NY-UK routes at least.


If UA don't use a B767/787 on EWR-MAN, I could see an attempt to replace the B752 with A321LR and link MAN with other UA hubs like ORD and IAD (again).


The 737MAX can fly EWR-MAN. The longest 737-8 route announced so far is about 3200nm, which is a few hundred miles longer than EWR-MAN. Norwegian has already proved the 737MAX can fly New York to the UK.


Wonder if we'll see a TATL configuration of any of the incoming MAX aircraft?
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:28 pm

AaronPGH wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:

If UA don't use a B767/787 on EWR-MAN, I could see an attempt to replace the B752 with A321LR and link MAN with other UA hubs like ORD and IAD (again).


The 737MAX can fly EWR-MAN. The longest 737-8 route announced so far is about 3200nm, which is a few hundred miles longer than EWR-MAN. Norwegian has already proved the 737MAX can fly New York to the UK.


Wonder if we'll see a TATL configuration of any of the incoming MAX aircraft?


I don’t know about United, but FlyDubai has a nice looking business class cabin for their 737MAX

Image


Image
https://buyingbusinesstravel.com/news/1 ... -737-max-8

I could see United installing a similar business class cabin on 737s
 
boeing737max
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:52 pm

Would not be surprised to see UA order a321neos just like AA and DL have. Seems like a near perfect replacement for the 757.. Especially for transatlantic service. Anyone know how profitable the 757 is at this point? Wondering if Boeing could convince UA to hold off for the next few years and be the launch customer for their middle of the market aircraft.
 
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TheRedBaron
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:46 pm

I wonder what it takes to take Boeing out of their doldrums, maybe if they loose this customer or one of the unthinkables (Ryanair-Southwest), they will finally bite the bullet and launch the new SA and MOM...

In the mean time Airbus is stealing´s Boeing´s lunch, because they have a gap in their line (210 pax and LR) and with Airbus/ Bombardier doing the CS series they, now lost the low end of the market.
The moment airbus produce A320 like hotcakes on Mobile and Europe and possibly elsewhere (read China), is when Boeing will feel the pressure because of Lightsaber´s rule on A-net "NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF AVAILABILITY". Every day Boeing waits to launch the new 737 is a good day at Airbus.

Best Regards
TRB
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Stitch
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:59 pm

Boeing launched MAX in 2011 because airlines would not wait for NSA and instead were buying A320neo. Now that Boeing has invested billions on MAX and has secured thousands upon thousands of orders for it, they need to scrap the entire thing and invest tens of billions on NSA to bring to market in a decade something that will be a couple percentage points better than A320neo and significantly higher-priced. All while Airbus keeps racking up A320neo orders by the thousand.

I'm inclined to think the people pushing for Boeing to move do so not for Boeing's benefit, but Airbus'.
 
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:02 am

TheRedBaron wrote:
I wonder what it takes to take Boeing out of their doldrums, maybe if they loose this customer or one of the unthinkables (Ryanair-Southwest), they will finally bite the bullet and launch the new SA and MOM...


The last time Boeing lost United, it was over their bid to replace the 727-222s with 737-400's.
United picked A320s, and another chapter in the remarkable history of the A320 was written.
AND it resulted in the near-immediate launch of the 737NG program, in which Boeing actually recreated an airplane to be better in some ways than the A320x was, at the time (of course, now with the NEO/MAX, the verdict is in favor of the Airbus product once more, IN MY OPINION).

I don't think that Boeing is as cocky as they once were. I expect they're much more willing to listen to the needs of their customers- especially large volume customers.
They're more motivated these days, now that Airbus is a far stronger competitor than Douglas and Airbus were at that time, decades ago.
 
trex8
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:16 am

TheRedBaron wrote:
I wonder what it takes to take Boeing out of their doldrums, maybe if they loose this customer or one of the unthinkables (Ryanair-Southwest), they will finally bite the bullet and launch the new SA and MOM...

In the mean time Airbus is stealing´s Boeing´s lunch, because they have a gap in their line (210 pax and LR) and with Airbus/ Bombardier doing the CS series they, now lost the low end of the market.
The moment airbus produce A320 like hotcakes on Mobile and Europe and possibly elsewhere (read China), is when Boeing will feel the pressure because of Lightsaber´s rule on A-net "NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF AVAILABILITY". Every day Boeing waits to launch the new 737 is a good day at Airbus.

Best Regards
TRB

They already make A320s in Tianjin. The Mobile assembly line is supposed to be a copy of the Tianjin one.
 
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keesje
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:19 am

AA737-823 wrote:
TheRedBaron wrote:
I wonder what it takes to take Boeing out of their doldrums, maybe if they loose this customer or one of the unthinkables (Ryanair-Southwest), they will finally bite the bullet and launch the new SA and MOM...


The last time Boeing lost United, it was over their bid to replace the 727-222s with 737-400's.


There was the A350s too. According to Leahy there were sideletters to Boeings nineties gentleman’s 20 years agreement that were honored by the US big three. Since then the big 3 have been buying again.

https://leehamnews.com/2017/11/28/leahy-reflects-33-years-airbus/
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marcelh
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:39 am

Stitch wrote:
Boeing launched MAX in 2011 because airlines would not wait for NSA and instead were buying A320neo.

Maybe some airlines would not wait for the NSA and deflect to Airbus, but Airbus cannot produce enough planes to cover a vast majority of the market. Should Boeing have introduced the NSA back in 2011, they would still selling 737NG.
 
redrooster3
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:00 am

- An order for 100 320neo's for older 320 replacement
- 20-30 321neo's (P.S./Coast)
- 40 or so 321LR's for 757 replacement

Are the MAX 9 & 10's intended for replacement for expansion?
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boeing737max
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:03 am

TheRedBaron wrote:
I wonder what it takes to take Boeing out of their doldrums, maybe if they loose this customer or one of the unthinkables (Ryanair-Southwest), they will finally bite the bullet and launch the new SA and MOM...

In the mean time Airbus is stealing´s Boeing´s lunch, because they have a gap in their line (210 pax and LR) and with Airbus/ Bombardier doing the CS series they, now lost the low end of the market.
The moment airbus produce A320 like hotcakes on Mobile and Europe and possibly elsewhere (read China), is when Boeing will feel the pressure because of Lightsaber´s rule on A-net "NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF AVAILABILITY". Every day Boeing waits to launch the new 737 is a good day at Airbus.

Best Regards
TRB

The MAX right now is a great aircraft with many ordering the MAX instead of the NEO. Although, the NEO is winning with its orders. My point being is that Boeing having the MAX on sale as their flagship narrowbody is not the issue. The aircraft is extremely economical by today's standards.. Over 4,000 orders back that up. The issue is the discrepancies between the MAX 9 and MAX 10 vs the a321neo and a321neoLR. If Boeing can bring out the MOM aircraft in a few years, there is no need to get rid of the MAX.. Having an aircraft designed specifically for the MOM should help combat further a321neo orders... Even Boeing knows that the MAX 10 is still not enough to compete with the a321neoLR. I truly think we will see Boeing announce this MOM aircraft soon than we think.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:28 am

I don't think the A321L is a true MoM aircraft. If anything it is at the very bottom of the MoM's capability spectrum, IMO; which signals to me that Boeing is narrowing the MoM window of capability to somewhere in the 757/767 range.
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Newbiepilot
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:56 am

boeing737max wrote:
TheRedBaron wrote:
I wonder what it takes to take Boeing out of their doldrums, maybe if they loose this customer or one of the unthinkables (Ryanair-Southwest), they will finally bite the bullet and launch the new SA and MOM...

In the mean time Airbus is stealing´s Boeing´s lunch, because they have a gap in their line (210 pax and LR) and with Airbus/ Bombardier doing the CS series they, now lost the low end of the market.
The moment airbus produce A320 like hotcakes on Mobile and Europe and possibly elsewhere (read China), is when Boeing will feel the pressure because of Lightsaber´s rule on A-net "NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF AVAILABILITY". Every day Boeing waits to launch the new 737 is a good day at Airbus.

Best Regards
TRB

The MAX right now is a great aircraft with many ordering the MAX instead of the NEO. Although, the NEO is winning with its orders. My point being is that Boeing having the MAX on sale as their flagship narrowbody is not the issue. The aircraft is extremely economical by today's standards.. Over 4,000 orders back that up. The issue is the discrepancies between the MAX 9 and MAX 10 vs the a321neo and a321neoLR. If Boeing can bring out the MOM aircraft in a few years, there is no need to get rid of the MAX.. Having an aircraft designed specifically for the MOM should help combat further a321neo orders... Even Boeing knows that the MAX 10 is still not enough to compete with the a321neoLR. I truly think we will see Boeing announce this MOM aircraft soon than we think.


Only a.net describes an airplane with a 4000 plane backlog as having it competitor stealing its lunch.
 
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TheRedBaron
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:02 am

Well if United orders Airbus, it is stealing Boeing Lunch, Delta has already done it... I never said that the MAX is a bad product or a failure, but as of today Airbus has a way more comprehensive and complete line of products than Boeing. If Airbus uses all the tech manpower it has coming out of the A350 a380 and the neo projects to launch a new single aisle... they will have a clear advantage, that is why I think that everyday Boeing sits on its laurels, is a good day at Airbus.
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seahawk
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:41 am

Why should Airbus move first, when the NEO does better than the MAX? And that is the whole problem of the MoM, Airbus is able to wait and still be ready to deliver their response (A321++) earlier. In the end the CFRP wingbox for the A321 was not developed for fun, it will be used with a CFRP wing in the future. So if you want to avoid the A321++, Boeing needs to go twin aisle and 767-300ER size, which comes with its own technical challenges and a huge chance that the MoM´s first victim will be the 787-8.
 
marcelh
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:52 am

seahawk wrote:
Why should Airbus move first, when the NEO does better than the MAX? And that is the whole problem of the MoM, Airbus is able to wait and still be ready to deliver their response (A321++) earlier. In the end the CFRP wingbox for the A321 was not developed for fun, it will be used with a CFRP wing in the future. So if you want to avoid the A321++, Boeing needs to go twin aisle and 767-300ER size, which comes with its own technical challenges and a huge chance that the MoM´s first victim will be the 787-8.


Exactly. And this is why Boeing should have introduced the NSA about 10 years ago.
 
parapente
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:55 am

The trouble (for Boeing) is that it is 'the market' that will decide where 'the middle' is not Boeing.
Range
.We know the LR can do 4knm at 206 pax 2 class.But in the last couple of days they (Airbus) have been touting even larger ranges (although I find it hard to believe myself).But certainly some existing A321NEO's have (frin Icelend for instance) been knocking out some impressive distances).
Indeed one article suggested that Boeing were now looking more at 4knm rather than the origonal 5-5.5knm.Perhaps 4knm is the 'middle'?
No point in offering 5-5.5knm if it's not really required.
Size.
The A321NEO/LR is a chameleon depending on what doors are activated.It can clearly do 240pax LCC.And 200pax (more or less depending on required individual airline configuration ).Airbus are now pointing out that their exit config actually allows for up to 250 pax.Although God knows where they would sruff 'em in.I did note they mentioned 244pax recently.Clearly they can give the 321 a small stretch with no mods if necessary (they offered it over 15 years ago)..
So what it 'The middle' from a pax numbers POV .Trouble is for Boeing it may indeed be in the 200-240 size depending on range/number of classes.
If so there really is no point in offering 250-270 pax if it's not required.
However.....
It may be that Boeing have already conceded the 757 space to Airbus in the short term ( one day they with produce a NSA).But that they will 'stop the rot' right there.Then their view of a MOM starts to make total sense as it is a 767 replacement in all but name.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 8:45 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
The 737MAX can fly EWR-MAN. The longest 737-8 route announced so far is about 3200nm, which is a few hundred miles longer than EWR-MAN. Norwegian has already proved the 737MAX can fly New York to the UK.


But at what capacity does the 738 fly those routes? It's great that the 737MAX can fly those distances, but what help is it to airlines when the capacity they have to replace is not covered in range of the available aircraft? So it seems strange to point out the 738 can fly a route that is currently covered by aircraft that are bigger in capacity, an apples to orange comparison.

Also, do you know what the implications on range will be if you use TATL premium products in the 738?


Stitch wrote:
Boeing launched MAX in 2011 because airlines would not wait for NSA and instead were buying A320neo. Now that Boeing has invested billions on MAX and has secured thousands upon thousands of orders for it, they need to scrap the entire thing and invest tens of billions on NSA to bring to market in a decade something that will be a couple percentage points better than A320neo and significantly higher-priced. All while Airbus keeps racking up A320neo orders by the thousand.

I'm inclined to think the people pushing for Boeing to move do so not for Boeing's benefit, but Airbus'.


Newbiepilot wrote:
Only a.net describes an airplane with a 4000 plane backlog as having it competitor stealing its lunch.


Looking at sales numbers and whether you can class a model as a success can be very nuanced. You can sell 6000 aircraft and in hindsight see it as a mistake years later. If Boeing has to launch the MOM to gain market share that the A321 now occupies, and you have to replace the 737 as well a few years down the line then you have had to spend money on 2 new designs (if we are to assume the MOM will be a twin aisle). If Boeing had taken the leap and done a NSA which would have covered the market that the A321 now occupies without the restrictions that the 737 is facing it would mean one less development that needed to be done by the company.

I think the discussion of whether the cost of two new programs will be more than one new program but lost sales while it is being developed but a better position in the future is a fascinating one. But that ignores all sorts of other factors that influence those decisions as well. Did Boeing have the resources, financial and engineering, to complete a NSA in a timely manner to win back customers that they could have lost to Airbus?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:33 am

marcelh wrote:
Exactly. And this is why Boeing should have introduced the NSA about 10 years ago.


As Stitch pointed out up-thread, why would Boeing have spent tens of Billions to produce an all-new NSA that might be, at best, 5% more efficient than an A320neo but would be vastly more expensive to buy? That just doesn't make any sense. :shakehead:

IMHO, you won't see an all-new A320/737 replacement from either Airbus or Boeing in service before 2035. It will take at least that long before new engine tech can give a big enough fuel-burn improvement in order to justify the huge investments required. Meanwhile, PW & CFM need to recover their investments in neo and MAX engines, so they're in no hurry to develop such an engine.
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EPA001
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:46 am

scbriml wrote:

As Stitch pointed out up-thread, why would Boeing have spent tens of Billions to produce an all-new NSA that might be, at best, 5% more efficient than an A320neo but would be vastly more expensive to buy? That just doesn't make any sense. :shakehead:

IMHO, you won't see an all-new A320/737 replacement from either Airbus or Boeing in service before 2035. It will take at least that long before new engine tech can give a big enough fuel-burn improvement in order to justify the huge investments required. Meanwhile, PW & CFM need to recover their investments in neo and MAX engines, so they're in no hurry to develop such an engine.


Which is in line with what John Leahy said just before the introduction of the neo. He predicted that Boeing would follow Airbus' move to re-engine and upgrade the current narrow body cash cows (which happened) and he stated that for an all-new NB to be decisively better than a competitor, the technology necessary for that was not yet ready to be introduced to the market. And he expected that technology at the earliest in the 2025-2030 timeframe. So if he is right again, and he usually is, the real successors of the A320 and B737 will at least not appear for +/- 12 years to come.

Which makes for airlines investing in a fleet of either one type a justifiable investment. With Airbus slightly on the upper hand and we might see an order for UA, especially for the A321-neo. There where the difference in Airbus' favour is the biggest.
Last edited by EPA001 on Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
marcelh
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:00 pm

scbriml wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Exactly. And this is why Boeing should have introduced the NSA about 10 years ago.


As Stitch pointed out up-thread, why would Boeing have spent tens of Billions to produce an all-new NSA that might be, at best, 5% more efficient than an A320neo but would be vastly more expensive to buy? That just doesn't make any sense. :shakehead.


OK, good point. But would a MoM not also suffer from the same drawbacks compared to the A321neoLR? A relatively small gain in fuel efficiency but also a lot more expensive.
 
StTim
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:04 pm

EPA001 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

As Stitch pointed out up-thread, why would Boeing have spent tens of Billions to produce an all-new NSA that might be, at best, 5% more efficient than an A320neo but would be vastly more expensive to buy? That just doesn't make any sense. :shakehead:

IMHO, you won't see an all-new A320/737 replacement from either Airbus or Boeing in service before 2035. It will take at least that long before new engine tech can give a big enough fuel-burn improvement in order to justify the huge investments required. Meanwhile, PW & CFM need to recover their investments in neo and MAX engines, so they're in no hurry to develop such an engine.


Which is in line with what John Leahy said just before the introduction of the neo. He predicted that Boeing would follow Airbus' move to re-engine and upgrade the current narrow body cash cows (which happened) and he stated that for an all-new NB to be decisively better than a competitor, the technology necessary for that was not yet ready to be introduced to the market. And he expected that technology at the earliest in the 2025-2030 timeframe. So if he is rich again, and he usually is, the real successors of the A320 and B737 will at least not appear for +/- 12 years to come.

Which makes for airlines investing in a fleet of either one type a justifiable investment. With Airbus slightly on the upper hand and we might see an order for UA, especially for the A321-neo. There where the difference in Airbus' favour is the biggest.


And you can also hang those wonderful new engines on the current frames for a MAXMAX or a neoneo.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:22 pm

enzo011 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
The 737MAX can fly EWR-MAN. The longest 737-8 route announced so far is about 3200nm, which is a few hundred miles longer than EWR-MAN. Norwegian has already proved the 737MAX can fly New York to the UK.


But at what capacity does the 738 fly those routes? It's great that the 737MAX can fly those distances, but what help is it to airlines when the capacity they have to replace is not covered in range of the available aircraft? So it seems strange to point out the 738 can fly a route that is currently covered by aircraft that are bigger in capacity, an apples to orange comparison.

Also, do you know what the implications on range will be if you use TATL premium products in the 738?


Contrary to a.net myth, Airplane range goes up when configured with TATL premium products. One business class seat with IFE can weigh 200-300lbs, but it usually displaces 3 economy seats. Two passengers displaced and their calculated weight of 225lbs per passenger more than makes up for the added weight of the business class seat.

The 737MAX is an option to replace 757s between EWR and the UK. Norwegian has proven the airplane can be flown in an all economy configuration. UA could also purchase A321s if they want, but I just wanted to remind people that the A321 isn’t the only option.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:07 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
The 737MAX can fly EWR-MAN. The longest 737-8 route announced so far is about 3200nm, which is a few hundred miles longer than EWR-MAN. Norwegian has already proved the 737MAX can fly New York to the UK.


But at what capacity does the 738 fly those routes? It's great that the 737MAX can fly those distances, but what help is it to airlines when the capacity they have to replace is not covered in range of the available aircraft? So it seems strange to point out the 738 can fly a route that is currently covered by aircraft that are bigger in capacity, an apples to orange comparison.

Also, do you know what the implications on range will be if you use TATL premium products in the 738?


Contrary to a.net myth, Airplane range goes up when configured with TATL premium products. One business class seat with IFE can weigh 200-300lbs, but it usually displaces 3 economy seats. Two passengers displaced and their calculated weight of 225lbs per passenger more than makes up for the added weight of the business class seat.

The 737MAX is an option to replace 757s between EWR and the UK. Norwegian has proven the airplane can be flown in an all economy configuration. UA could also purchase A321s if they want, but I just wanted to remind people that the A321 isn’t the only option.


You seem very careful to talk about the 737MAX rather than the model you have in mind. No, the A321 is not the only option, you can also buy the A320.

If you want to replace the capacity of the 757-200 and have a similar range, you end on the A321neo.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:17 pm

marcelh wrote:
scbriml wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Exactly. And this is why Boeing should have introduced the NSA about 10 years ago.


As Stitch pointed out up-thread, why would Boeing have spent tens of Billions to produce an all-new NSA that might be, at best, 5% more efficient than an A320neo but would be vastly more expensive to buy? That just doesn't make any sense. :shakehead.


OK, good point. But would a MoM not also suffer from the same drawbacks compared to the A321neoLR? A relatively small gain in fuel efficiency but also a lot more expensive.


Mommy plane requires an all-new engine. That's part of the equation that Boeing appears to be struggling to solve. Everyone you ask has a slightly different definition of what, exactly, MOM should be. They can build the plane, but can they sell enough at the price the airlines say they're willing to pay?

I'm of the view that if it was clear-cut, Boeing would have already launched it. The fact they haven't suggests the business case for it is "tricky". All IMHO.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
marcelh
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:25 pm

scbriml wrote:
Mommy plane


:lol:
 
by738
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:25 pm

I always think of the A321Neo of a bit of a stopgap and its based on relatively old tech design (yeah, new engine and wing tweaks) but still essentially 1980's wings and structures. A bit like the way people complained the 737 is a 1960's design.
Suppose with order books like A+B, why would you be in a hurry to push through quick new designs.
Regional mainline transatlantic seems to have retreated slightly, so I dont think we'll see A321LR replacing the heyday of 757s on UA TA but perfect for eg seasonal LIS/GLA etc
 
Gingersnap
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:26 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
The 737MAX can fly EWR-MAN. The longest 737-8 route announced so far is about 3200nm, which is a few hundred miles longer than EWR-MAN. Norwegian has already proved the 737MAX can fly New York to the UK.


But at what capacity does the 738 fly those routes? It's great that the 737MAX can fly those distances, but what help is it to airlines when the capacity they have to replace is not covered in range of the available aircraft? So it seems strange to point out the 738 can fly a route that is currently covered by aircraft that are bigger in capacity, an apples to orange comparison.

Also, do you know what the implications on range will be if you use TATL premium products in the 738?


Contrary to a.net myth, Airplane range goes up when configured with TATL premium products. One business class seat with IFE can weigh 200-300lbs, but it usually displaces 3 economy seats. Two passengers displaced and their calculated weight of 225lbs per passenger more than makes up for the added weight of the business class seat.

The 737MAX is an option to replace 757s between EWR and the UK. Norwegian has proven the airplane can be flown in an all economy configuration. UA could also purchase A321s if they want, but I just wanted to remind people that the A321 isn’t the only option.


Except only the 737-8 is going to be flying between EWR and the UK. The larger -9 would be right on the edge of it's range so could be weight restricted and the -10 wouldn't make it without a stop westbound in a normal configuration. Not to mention the 737-8 would be in an all Y config to achieve a similar pax load as the 752.
The A321NEO can make that trip with 200+ pax (with J + Y), and the LR would be more or less comfortable as far as western Germany.
Flown on: A306 A319/20/21 A332 B732/3/4/5/7/8 B742/4 B752 B762/3 B772/W B788 C152 E195 F70/100 MD-82 Q400
 
WIederling
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:36 pm

scbriml wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Exactly. And this is why Boeing should have introduced the NSA about 10 years ago.


As Stitch pointed out up-thread, why would Boeing have spent tens of Billions to produce an all-new NSA that might be, at best, 5% more efficient than an A320neo but would be vastly more expensive to buy?


You miss out on Boeing defending their lunch in best Microsoft manner with
"new super efficient NSA just around the corner, nobody needs to buy an Airbus with pimped engines"
and some ancillary funnies like Airbus just catching up to the NG with its NEO derivative.

They were able to leverage some help too via bankers and lessors lamenting the vaporizing value of CEO frames.
Least useful vector in that respect was letting the A320 be seen as endangered by the CSeries.

All taken the B-Environment must have spent gobs of money to fend of the NEO.
Final result a meager #metoo "MAX". ... launched into sliding market share.

What I haven't fathomed is :
Die Airbus launch the NEO in just the right moment
or did offering the NEO cause the NB sales explosion by its existence?

( There are distinct similarities and also vast differences to the 787 drug like sales rush.
Hmm that could provide for interesting discussion :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
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enzo011
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:52 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
Contrary to a.net myth, Airplane range goes up when configured with TATL premium products. One business class seat with IFE can weigh 200-300lbs, but it usually displaces 3 economy seats. Two passengers displaced and their calculated weight of 225lbs per passenger more than makes up for the added weight of the business class seat.

The 737MAX is an option to replace 757s between EWR and the UK. Norwegian has proven the airplane can be flown in an all economy configuration. UA could also purchase A321s if they want, but I just wanted to remind people that the A321 isn’t the only option.



Okay, so to get more range you trade it for less passengers and more premium seats. So how does the smaller 738MAX replace the very much larger 757 for passengers when the only frame from the 737 family that can do that is the 737-10, which will not have the range? Your posts are factually correct, but you use your facts interchangeably depending how you want to show Boeing in a good light. The discussion is how a A321neo can replace the 757 at UA as it has the capacity and range, and you post that the 737 flies further. You are not wrong, your just wrong when discussing the thread.

scrimbl wrote:
Mommy plane requires an all-new engine. That's part of the equation that Boeing appears to be struggling to solve. Everyone you ask has a slightly different definition of what, exactly, MOM should be. They can build the plane, but can they sell enough at the price the airlines say they're willing to pay?

I'm of the view that if it was clear-cut, Boeing would have already launched it. The fact they haven't suggests the business case for it is "tricky". All IMHO.


But Boeing will have to bite the bullet eventually. They are going to have to spend the development costs on a new design with a new flight deck that is more in line with the 787/777 and less like the 737. There will be some efficiency gains from this compared to the current 737. Any new design will not benefit from the weight savings the current 737 and you would assume they will have the option for bigger engines for more efficiency (among other benefits) which will also add weight. So any new design would probably only have its efficiency gains from the new engines, which you would assume Airbus would be able to use as well (unless the engines are to be fitted in a different area than currently).

So whether Boeing went ahead with the NSA now or in 15 years, doesn't the same problem not go away? I think the size that airlines will look for will be around 200 passengers for one class and larger for the next model. This will be dictated largely by LCC's who will want to save costs on crew who will buy the majority of the frames. How does moving the decision 20 years down the line negate the negatives they faced currently in relation to the A320neo or a new design?
 
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CFM565A1
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:04 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
keesje wrote:
It wouldn't be very surprising to have United considering A321s because American, Delta, Spirit, Frontier, Jetblue, Hawaiian and Alaska have been moving to A321s and they are operating in the same marketplace.



Bear in mind that AS isn't totally sold on the A321NEO yet; they like it a lot, but they also love fleet commonality, so they're waiting on either Boeing or Airbus to make an offer they can't refuse before hitching their wagon to the A321 or the 737MAX10.

So far neither has, but Boeing is far, far more likely to make such an offer to AS given the demand the A321 currently has.


I personally don’t think fleet commonality matters anymore. You’ve got an entire VX employee base that doesn’t have anything to do with the 737s.
Flown: C172-M/N/P/R/S , P2006T, PA-34-200T, DH8A/C Been on: B1900D, DH8A/C ERJ-145, CRJ-100/200, DH8D, CRJ-700/705/900, E-175/190, A319/320/321, 737-200/300/400/600/700/800/900ER/M8, MD-82/83, 757-200/300, 767-300, A330-300, 787-9, 777-300ER, F28-4000.
 
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CFM565A1
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:14 pm

1337Delta764 wrote:
This is getting bad; Airbus stole DL as a customer, they mostly stole AA, and now it looks like they might steal UA as a customer. The President or Congress needs to step up and come to Boeing's rescue to prevent a U.S. Airbus monopoly.


Another one against free market economy. You do realize Airbus didn’t “steal” customers because Boeing didn’t have a given right to sell to American carriers. Dictatorship and communist counties work on this principle where it’s “you MUST buy the product of the state and have no competition”. Go running to your President if you choose or Jeff Flake like you’ve said before, chances are like with BBD they’ll lose.
Flown: C172-M/N/P/R/S , P2006T, PA-34-200T, DH8A/C Been on: B1900D, DH8A/C ERJ-145, CRJ-100/200, DH8D, CRJ-700/705/900, E-175/190, A319/320/321, 737-200/300/400/600/700/800/900ER/M8, MD-82/83, 757-200/300, 767-300, A330-300, 787-9, 777-300ER, F28-4000.
 
Planeyguy
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:34 pm

enzo011 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
The 737MAX can fly EWR-MAN. The longest 737-8 route announced so far is about 3200nm, which is a few hundred miles longer than EWR-MAN. Norwegian has already proved the 737MAX can fly New York to the UK.


But at what capacity does the 738 fly those routes? It's great that the 737MAX can fly those distances, but what help is it to airlines when the capacity they have to replace is not covered in range of the available aircraft? So it seems strange to point out the 738 can fly a route that is currently covered by aircraft that are bigger in capacity, an apples to orange comparison.

Also, do you know what the implications on range will be if you use TATL premium products in the 738?


Stitch wrote:
Boeing launched MAX in 2011 because airlines would not wait for NSA and instead were buying A320neo. Now that Boeing has invested billions on MAX and has secured thousands upon thousands of orders for it, they need to scrap the entire thing and invest tens of billions on NSA to bring to market in a decade something that will be a couple percentage points better than A320neo and significantly higher-priced. All while Airbus keeps racking up A320neo orders by the thousand.

I'm inclined to think the people pushing for Boeing to move do so not for Boeing's benefit, but Airbus'.


Newbiepilot wrote:
Only a.net describes an airplane with a 4000 plane backlog as having it competitor stealing its lunch.


Looking at sales numbers and whether you can class a model as a success can be very nuanced. You can sell 6000 aircraft and in hindsight see it as a mistake years later. If Boeing has to launch the MOM to gain market share that the A321 now occupies, and you have to replace the 737 as well a few years down the line then you have had to spend money on 2 new designs (if we are to assume the MOM will be a twin aisle). If Boeing had taken the leap and done a NSA which would have covered the market that the A321 now occupies without the restrictions that the 737 is facing it would mean one less development that needed to be done by the company.

I think the discussion of whether the cost of two new programs will be more than one new program but lost sales while it is being developed but a better position in the future is a fascinating one. But that ignores all sorts of other factors that influence those decisions as well. Did Boeing have the resources, financial and engineering, to complete a NSA in a timely manner to win back customers that they could have lost to Airbus?


The reason why Boeing launch the MAX was because Southwest threatened to switch to Airbus if Boeing didn't come up with a replacement for the NG quickly enough. Southwest can't wait for the new NSA to launch. So I think the MAX was a great idea so to allow Boeing to come back with a proper response
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:58 pm

CFM565A1 wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
keesje wrote:
It wouldn't be very surprising to have United considering A321s because American, Delta, Spirit, Frontier, Jetblue, Hawaiian and Alaska have been moving to A321s and they are operating in the same marketplace.



Bear in mind that AS isn't totally sold on the A321NEO yet; they like it a lot, but they also love fleet commonality, so they're waiting on either Boeing or Airbus to make an offer they can't refuse before hitching their wagon to the A321 or the 737MAX10.

So far neither has, but Boeing is far, far more likely to make such an offer to AS given the demand the A321 currently has.


I personally don’t think fleet commonality matters anymore. You’ve got an entire VX employee base that doesn’t have anything to do with the 737s.



AS FP&A has cited a single fleet type as saving approximately $30M/year. Not small potatoes....
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
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enzo011
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:10 pm

Planeyguy wrote:
The reason why Boeing launch the MAX was because Southwest threatened to switch to Airbus if Boeing didn't come up with a replacement for the NG quickly enough. Southwest can't wait for the new NSA to launch. So I think the MAX was a great idea so to allow Boeing to come back with a proper response



I thought it was the AA Airbus A320 order that tipped Boeing's hand?
 
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CFM565A1
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:15 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
CFM565A1 wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:

Bear in mind that AS isn't totally sold on the A321NEO yet; they like it a lot, but they also love fleet commonality, so they're waiting on either Boeing or Airbus to make an offer they can't refuse before hitching their wagon to the A321 or the 737MAX10.

So far neither has, but Boeing is far, far more likely to make such an offer to AS given the demand the A321 currently has.


I personally don’t think fleet commonality matters anymore. You’ve got an entire VX employee base that doesn’t have anything to do with the 737s.



AS FP&A has cited a single fleet type as saving approximately $30M/year. Not small potatoes....


Maybe but retraining all VX employees who have been 320 trained already is bound to cost them a good price too. I’m only betting on gut feeling but they’ll keep the 320s or at least the 321N.
Flown: C172-M/N/P/R/S , P2006T, PA-34-200T, DH8A/C Been on: B1900D, DH8A/C ERJ-145, CRJ-100/200, DH8D, CRJ-700/705/900, E-175/190, A319/320/321, 737-200/300/400/600/700/800/900ER/M8, MD-82/83, 757-200/300, 767-300, A330-300, 787-9, 777-300ER, F28-4000.
 
WIederling
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:21 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
AS FP&A has cited a single fleet type as saving approximately $30M/year. Not small potatoes....


Losing $3b on the way for lack of fleet granularity. :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
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BN727227Ultra
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:24 pm

1337Delta764 wrote:
This is getting bad; Airbus stole DL as a customer, they mostly stole AA, and now it looks like they might steal UA as a customer. The President or Congress needs to step up and come to Boeing's rescue to prevent a U.S. Airbus monopoly.


You mean the A320-series being built in Mobile-By-God Alabama?
 
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767333ER
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:31 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
I love the 767, but why would they choose a plane with zero digital avionics (steam gauges, no glass cockpit) and a hydraulic system with '50s architecture (707-esque).

The 757/767 had the misfortune of coming out several years before innovation died in November of '88 when the A320-200 was certified, therefore they missed out on everything current aircraft have.

1. The 757/767 does have a glass cockpit, I’m not sure what else you call a setup of 6 CRTs. The only analog gauge of any use is the altimeter and on some fleets the airspeed indicator, otherwise everything is covered by glass and for standbys newer ones come with ISFD. And that’s all before the modifications that can be done.
2. The hydraulic system is not 1950s architecture as in the 50s I don’t thing they could design a system with automatic load shedding and automatic on and off demand pumps nor do I think any of the pumps were anywhere near being made in the 50s.
3. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/innovation. Innovation lives, Boeing hast taken a bit of a hiatus from it, but it lives.
4. I don’t get what you have against the A320-200 specifically.
5. Please do some research and critical thinking before posting more of this.
Been on: 732 733 734 73G 738 752 763 A319 A320 A321 CRJ CR7 CRA/CR9 E145 E175 E190 F28 MD-82 MD-83 C172R C172S P2006T
 
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scbriml
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:33 pm

enzo011 wrote:
But Boeing will have to bite the bullet eventually.


Yes, they will. But not before the next generation of engines is available that will replace GTF and Leap.

enzo011 wrote:
So whether Boeing went ahead with the NSA now or in 15 years, doesn't the same problem not go away?


My argument is that NSA launched now would not work financially. NSA launched in 15 years using "GTF II" or "LeapMAX" will work because it would offer a significant fuel-burn advantage over current engines. Whether Airbus would respond with an "A320MAX" or an all-new plane will be interesting to see. But we're going to have to wait a long time to find out, IMHO.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
727200
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:37 pm

AA737-823 wrote:
TheRedBaron wrote:
I wonder what it takes to take Boeing out of their doldrums, maybe if they loose this customer or one of the unthinkables (Ryanair-Southwest), they will finally bite the bullet and launch the new SA and MOM...


The last time Boeing lost United, it was over their bid to replace the 727-222s with 737-400's.
United picked A320s, and another chapter in the remarkable history of the A320 was written.
AND it resulted in the near-immediate launch of the 737NG program, in which Boeing actually recreated an airplane to be better in some ways than the A320x was, at the time (of course, now with the NEO/MAX, the verdict is in favor of the Airbus product once more, IN MY OPINION).

You are so wrong in making this statement and have no basis for putting this out in public.

The reality is it had to do with then Chairman Wolfe, the French government, CDG landing rights, and then the taking of Airbus planes.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Reuters: United to consider Airbus A321 NEO.

Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:19 pm

scbriml wrote:
Yes, they will. But not before the next generation of engines is available that will replace GTF and Leap.


They missed the new generation now and will be forced to wait for the next generation.


scbriml wrote:
My argument is that NSA launched now would not work financially. NSA launched in 15 years using "GTF II" or "LeapMAX" will work because it would offer a significant fuel-burn advantage over current engines. Whether Airbus would respond with an "A320MAX" or an all-new plane will be interesting to see. But we're going to have to wait a long time to find out, IMHO.



You know this I am sure, they were in a tough spot and were put there by Airbus moving first and using the engines they would have used for a new design. Firstly they were busy sorting out the 787 mess (always comes down to the 787 delays it seems) and while they should have been busy delivering the 78X when they launched the MAX they were actually busy trying to get the 788 out of the door. So their engineering resources were tied up as well as financially they were hamstrung at that point in time. I don't think they could have launched the NSA even if they wanted to, but they just punted the issues they had 3 years ago to 15 years down line.

I just don't see how 42% market share or so of a duopoly is seen as a success for a company that had 80% market share and I don't see how the design challenges are solved in 15 years time. I think that there shouldn't be a problem with resources or engineering at that time, but the problem of the A320 and their reply to the design will be the same. In saying they should have launched the NSA I am aware that it was probably impossible to do it at the time, doesn't mean it cannot be pointed out as a mistake in hindsight.

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