jetbluefan1
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B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:39 pm

http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -123046184

http://blueir.investproductions.com/~/m ... tation.pdf

A decidedly mixed bag for the quarter, with a beat on the top line but a miss on the bottom line. Conference call is currently going on and the stock is trading down around 3%.

Some interesting tidbits from the call and presentation so far:

(1) Taking 3 more Mint-configured A321's in 2018, all of which have been accounted for (with the addition of JFK/BOS-SEA and BOS-LAS).
(2) Demand to Puerto Rico has bounced back faster than expected, but with a decidedly different passenger mix (much lower leisure mix, as one would expect)
(3) FLL had highest RASM growth despite the busy hurricane season
(4) Cost containment goals remain on-track (see slide 13 of presentation)
(5) New Mint markets off to a "solid" start, operating in-line with expectations
(6) Saw significant Latin America, Caribbean, and transcon strength during the quarter
(7) No fuel needs have been hedged; monitoring rising oil prices very closely
(8) NYC and Boston remain highest margin hubs
(9) NY to Fort Lauderdale pricing pressures have eased
(10) Expect continued deployment of All-Core A321's in BOS leisure markets, which is a significant margin driver
 
tphuang
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:08 pm

The other thing they mentioned is that an a321lr evaluation is mostly complete and will make an announcement soon.

Kind of crazy to me that they are not adding more mint aircraft this year when a route like fll lax is doing so well.

I guess they are relying on the 200 seaters deliveries and a320 reconfiguration to keep casm growth down.
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:44 pm

tphuang wrote:
The other thing they mentioned is that an a321lr evaluation is mostly complete and will make an announcement soon.

Kind of crazy to me that they are not adding more mint aircraft this year when a route like fll lax is doing so well.

I guess they are relying on the 200 seaters deliveries and a320 reconfiguration to keep casm growth down.


Interesting note on the LR. Hayes indicated it won't be available for delivery until "late 2019"....I wonder if the decision is made, whether B6 will announce its intentions with the aircraft (i.e. citing specific markets), or if they will sit on such information as long as possible in order to decrease the amount of time its competitors have to react.

I'm a bit surprised to see more Mint aircraft aren't being added this year either - FLL-LAX is going gangbusters up front, although I assume the yield in the back of the bus isn't exactly amazing. Also keep in mind that in addition to JFK/BOS-SEA and BOS-LAS, a third BOS-SAN and the seasonal third BOS-SEA flight will pick up Mint, a 5th frequency was added on BOS-SFO, and an 11th frequency was added on JFK-LAX. I bet B6 will make BOS-SEA 3x and JFK-SEA 2x year-round instead of just seasonal additions.

The 200-seat 321's were specifically mentioned as a tool to keep fares "low" in leisure markets from BOS -- which I interpret as a competitive response to DL's buildup and NK's recent entry into more BOS leisure markets. By introducing the all-core 321 into these markets, B6 should be able to sustain a CASM advantage, and the product on these birds is also superior to the A320's (although, as mentioned in the call, the first retrofit has finally commenced).
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:39 pm

Some more notable points from the conference call:

(1) A320 retrofit has finally started
(2) BOS and FLL capacity to grow by 13% and 6%, respectively, this quarter
(3) Caribbean and LatAm had largest RASM growth
(4) Even More Space generated ~$55M in revenue during the year
(5) Expect to focus ancillary revenue efforts on JetBlue Travel brand
(6) Efforts to drive more leisure travel bookings to jetblue.com instead of third party sites are paying off; highest share in 4 years
(7) Heavy focus to improve operations; lower aircraft utilization, longer turn times for "critical afternoon" flights
(8) Profit sharing was $34M for the year (which is separate from the $1k bonus paid to most crewmembers)
(9) Expect CASM ex-fuel at -1% to +1% for the year
(10) Structural cost program has yielding annual savings of $90M, largely from Tech Ops; on track to reach $250M run rate by 2020
(11) "Extremely happy with some of the numbers on some of the new Mint routes"
 
tphuang
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:40 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
The other thing they mentioned is that an a321lr evaluation is mostly complete and will make an announcement soon.

Kind of crazy to me that they are not adding more mint aircraft this year when a route like fll lax is doing so well.

I guess they are relying on the 200 seaters deliveries and a320 reconfiguration to keep casm growth down.


Interesting note on the LR. Hayes indicated it won't be available for delivery until "late 2019"....I wonder if the decision is made, whether B6 will announce its intentions with the aircraft (i.e. citing specific markets), or if they will sit on such information as long as possible in order to decrease the amount of time its competitors have to react.

I'm a bit surprised to see more Mint aircraft aren't being added this year either - FLL-LAX is going gangbusters up front, although I assume the yield in the back of the bus isn't exactly amazing. Also keep in mind that in addition to JFK/BOS-SEA and BOS-LAS, a third BOS-SAN and the seasonal third BOS-SEA flight will pick up Mint, a 5th frequency was added on BOS-SFO, and an 11th frequency was added on JFK-LAX. I bet B6 will make BOS-SEA 3x and JFK-SEA 2x year-round instead of just seasonal additions.

The 200-seat 321's were specifically mentioned as a tool to keep fares "low" in leisure markets from BOS -- which I interpret as a competitive response to DL's buildup and NK's recent entry into more BOS leisure markets. By introducing the all-core 321 into these markets, B6 should be able to sustain a CASM advantage, and the product on these birds is also superior to the A320's (although, as mentioned in the call, the first retrofit has finally commenced).


I think you are right on the 200 seaters. Dl yields on JFK to fll mco are quite terrible since b6 deploys the a321s there against 738s. I could easily see a 35% casm advantage. Bos fares to Florida is still quite a bit higher than JFK, which would be driven down by the added capacity. Certainly b6 is taking dl move in bos very seriously. Which makes me think that tatl flying will probably happen as soon as a321lr is available.

I also wonder where else they are deploying the 200 seaters.

I would like to see some seasonal movements on the mint aircraft. For example, in winter season, move one of the bos sea aircraft to fll lax. The yield on there is not great now, but there is a decent chance that as will drop out of fll lax or sfo at some point, since their numbers are horrendous. I would also like to see 1 daily mint on fll sea, which is currently very high yielding with just as and aa. Should help build up b6 revenue advantage at fll over wn.

Of course, there is the pipe dream of ewr to lax but that is not happening this year.
 
dc10lover
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:58 pm

So many people love B6 and their excellent customer service, no wonder B6 is doing very good.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
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pitbosflyer
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 5:11 pm

No mention of the low ranking this year for on time arrivals? I know the summer runway maintenance at BOS/JFK were largely to blame, but still could have at least been mentioned. I've seen alot of negative press lately about the on time arrivals for B6 this year.
 
catiii
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 5:38 pm

pitbosflyer wrote:
No mention of the low ranking this year for on time arrivals? I know the summer runway maintenance at BOS/JFK were largely to blame, but still could have at least been mentioned. I've seen alot of negative press lately about the on time arrivals for B6 this year.


It was mentioned at length. Google is your friend.
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:08 pm

pitbosflyer wrote:
No mention of the low ranking this year for on time arrivals? I know the summer runway maintenance at BOS/JFK were largely to blame, but still could have at least been mentioned. I've seen alot of negative press lately about the on time arrivals for B6 this year.


There was some mention. B6 management indicated the runway closures at BOS/JFK and understaffing at ATC especially exacerbated the operation. However, "blue sky day" operations had the highest on-time performance in 6 years, and performance at congested Northeast airports largely matched those of competitors. As I noted above, management plans to decrease aircraft utilization and increase afternoon turn-times to help out with operations.

tphuang wrote:
I think you are right on the 200 seaters. Dl yields on JFK to fll mco are quite terrible since b6 deploys the a321s there against 738s. I could easily see a 35% casm advantage. Bos fares to Florida is still quite a bit higher than JFK, which would be driven down by the added capacity. Certainly b6 is taking dl move in bos very seriously. Which makes me think that tatl flying will probably happen as soon as a321lr is available.

I also wonder where else they are deploying the 200 seaters.

I would like to see some seasonal movements on the mint aircraft. For example, in winter season, move one of the bos sea aircraft to fll lax. The yield on there is not great now, but there is a decent chance that as will drop out of fll lax or sfo at some point, since their numbers are horrendous. I would also like to see 1 daily mint on fll sea, which is currently very high yielding with just as and aa. Should help build up b6 revenue advantage at fll over wn.

Of course, there is the pipe dream of ewr to lax but that is not happening this year.


Interesting idea on the Mint seasonal redeployment - BOS-SEA indeed drops off during the winter, and FLL-LAX is probably a bit stronger in the winter, so it could be a nice use of the plane. If SEA ends up receiving Mint well, maybe B6 could even try it out on FLL-SEA.

I think EWR-LAX could come on board sometime in 2019, as long as fuel prices don't rise too rapidly and the economy remains on solid footing.
 
jworks158
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:44 pm

I was wondering if anyone has heard anything on the E-190 fleet review?
(A359,A343/A346,A332,A319/320/321,A220-100)(B788,B772,B762,B752,B744/B748,B732/B737/B738,B717)(E190,E145)(CRJ100/200, Dash 8-200)(MD-83)
JB,UA(C5,EV,CHQ,AX),AA(EGF,ZW,AX,PT),DL(OH,YX),FL,WN,LH,BA,AF,AZ,IB,VX,CO
https://my.flightradar24.com/theorangetechie
 
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pitbosflyer
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:55 pm

catiii wrote:
pitbosflyer wrote:
No mention of the low ranking this year for on time arrivals? I know the summer runway maintenance at BOS/JFK were largely to blame, but still could have at least been mentioned. I've seen alot of negative press lately about the on time arrivals for B6 this year.


It was mentioned at length. Google is your friend.


Sorry was asking it as a question, because I didn't see it in people's run down lists.
 
INFINITI329
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:31 pm

Any word of their "fleet review" as pertains to the E190?
 
777Mech
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:40 pm

tphuang wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
The other thing they mentioned is that an a321lr evaluation is mostly complete and will make an announcement soon.

Kind of crazy to me that they are not adding more mint aircraft this year when a route like fll lax is doing so well.

I guess they are relying on the 200 seaters deliveries and a320 reconfiguration to keep casm growth down.


Interesting note on the LR. Hayes indicated it won't be available for delivery until "late 2019"....I wonder if the decision is made, whether B6 will announce its intentions with the aircraft (i.e. citing specific markets), or if they will sit on such information as long as possible in order to decrease the amount of time its competitors have to react.

I'm a bit surprised to see more Mint aircraft aren't being added this year either - FLL-LAX is going gangbusters up front, although I assume the yield in the back of the bus isn't exactly amazing. Also keep in mind that in addition to JFK/BOS-SEA and BOS-LAS, a third BOS-SAN and the seasonal third BOS-SEA flight will pick up Mint, a 5th frequency was added on BOS-SFO, and an 11th frequency was added on JFK-LAX. I bet B6 will make BOS-SEA 3x and JFK-SEA 2x year-round instead of just seasonal additions.

The 200-seat 321's were specifically mentioned as a tool to keep fares "low" in leisure markets from BOS -- which I interpret as a competitive response to DL's buildup and NK's recent entry into more BOS leisure markets. By introducing the all-core 321 into these markets, B6 should be able to sustain a CASM advantage, and the product on these birds is also superior to the A320's (although, as mentioned in the call, the first retrofit has finally commenced).


I think you are right on the 200 seaters. Dl yields on JFK to fll mco are quite terrible since b6 deploys the a321s there against 738s. I could easily see a 35% casm advantage. Bos fares to Florida is still quite a bit higher than JFK, which would be driven down by the added capacity. Certainly b6 is taking dl move in bos very seriously. Which makes me think that tatl flying will probably happen as soon as a321lr is available.

I also wonder where else they are deploying the 200 seaters.

I would like to see some seasonal movements on the mint aircraft. For example, in winter season, move one of the bos sea aircraft to fll lax. The yield on there is not great now, but there is a decent chance that as will drop out of fll lax or sfo at some point, since their numbers are horrendous. I would also like to see 1 daily mint on fll sea, which is currently very high yielding with just as and aa. Should help build up b6 revenue advantage at fll over wn.

Of course, there is the pipe dream of ewr to lax but that is not happening this year.


Care to cite source for the DL yields on JFK-FLL/MCO? You can't determine yields by aircraft type...
 
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pitbosflyer
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:12 pm

INFINITI329 wrote:
Any word of their "fleet review" as pertains to the E190?


My understanding is they had delayed it because of the trade dispute on the C-series. That being said as of a few hours ago Boeing lost that dispute, so we may hear more.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/26/reuters ... -jets.html
 
winginit
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:35 pm

dc10lover wrote:
So many people love B6 and their excellent customer service, no wonder B6 is doing very good.


With a top line miss, the question remains as to whether or not customers are willing to pay a premium for that excellent customer service. In the past that simply hasn't been the case, and B6 is still needing to sharply discount Mint to compete with legacy transcon services. They'll need to get those yields up to offset the CASM creep.
 
tphuang
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:39 pm

777Mech wrote:
tphuang wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:

Interesting note on the LR. Hayes indicated it won't be available for delivery until "late 2019"....I wonder if the decision is made, whether B6 will announce its intentions with the aircraft (i.e. citing specific markets), or if they will sit on such information as long as possible in order to decrease the amount of time its competitors have to react.

I'm a bit surprised to see more Mint aircraft aren't being added this year either - FLL-LAX is going gangbusters up front, although I assume the yield in the back of the bus isn't exactly amazing. Also keep in mind that in addition to JFK/BOS-SEA and BOS-LAS, a third BOS-SAN and the seasonal third BOS-SEA flight will pick up Mint, a 5th frequency was added on BOS-SFO, and an 11th frequency was added on JFK-LAX. I bet B6 will make BOS-SEA 3x and JFK-SEA 2x year-round instead of just seasonal additions.

The 200-seat 321's were specifically mentioned as a tool to keep fares "low" in leisure markets from BOS -- which I interpret as a competitive response to DL's buildup and NK's recent entry into more BOS leisure markets. By introducing the all-core 321 into these markets, B6 should be able to sustain a CASM advantage, and the product on these birds is also superior to the A320's (although, as mentioned in the call, the first retrofit has finally commenced).


I think you are right on the 200 seaters. Dl yields on JFK to fll mco are quite terrible since b6 deploys the a321s there against 738s. I could easily see a 35% casm advantage. Bos fares to Florida is still quite a bit higher than JFK, which would be driven down by the added capacity. Certainly b6 is taking dl move in bos very seriously. Which makes me think that tatl flying will probably happen as soon as a321lr is available.

I also wonder where else they are deploying the 200 seaters.

I would like to see some seasonal movements on the mint aircraft. For example, in winter season, move one of the bos sea aircraft to fll lax. The yield on there is not great now, but there is a decent chance that as will drop out of fll lax or sfo at some point, since their numbers are horrendous. I would also like to see 1 daily mint on fll sea, which is currently very high yielding with just as and aa. Should help build up b6 revenue advantage at fll over wn.

Of course, there is the pipe dream of ewr to lax but that is not happening this year.


Care to cite source for the DL yields on JFK-FLL/MCO? You can't determine yields by aircraft type...


in Q3
JFK/FLL fares for B6 was 161 and 152 for DL. LGA/FLL fares for B6 was 152 and 146 for DL. As a point of reference, JFK/MIA fares for AA was 186 and 171 for DL.
JFK/MCO fares for B6 was 161 and 162 for DL. LGA/MCO fares for B6 was 151 and 155 for DL. As a point of reference, BOS/MCO fares for B6 was 175 and 164 for DL.
in Q2
JFK/FLL fares for B6 was 164 and 152 for DL.
JFK/MCO fares for B6 was 164 and 159 for DL.

Given that DL system wide CASM is 25% higher and both these routes on B6 are flying their lowest CASM aircraft (probably 15% lower than A320s) running between its biggest focus cities, I think it's pretty reasonable to assume that CASM advantage for B6 is higher than 25% on these routes. Unless B6 is generating some ridiculous margins on these routes, I just don't see how DL could be doing anything other than loosing money on them. Note how JFK/MIA had significantly higher fares for legacies. $152 for a 3 hour flight on DL is really bad.

With a top line miss, the question remains as to whether or not customers are willing to pay a premium for that excellent customer service. In the past that simply hasn't been the case, and B6 is still needing to sharply discount Mint to compete with legacy transcon services. They'll need to get those yields up to offset the CASM creep.

Which routes are you referring to?
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:34 pm

winginit wrote:
dc10lover wrote:
So many people love B6 and their excellent customer service, no wonder B6 is doing very good.


With a top line miss, the question remains as to whether or not customers are willing to pay a premium for that excellent customer service. In the past that simply hasn't been the case, and B6 is still needing to sharply discount Mint to compete with legacy transcon services. They'll need to get those yields up to offset the CASM creep.


Actually, they beat on the top line (but missed on the bottom line, meaning that revenues and expenses were higher than than the estimate).

Not sure what you mean about B6 "still needing to sharply discount Mint" versus the legacies. Mint has forced legacies to reduce many of their transcon fares, and B6 management has stated time and again that Mint is a RASM and margin driver. Do you have evidence otherwise?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:40 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
The other thing they mentioned is that an a321lr evaluation is mostly complete and will make an announcement soon.

Kind of crazy to me that they are not adding more mint aircraft this year when a route like fll lax is doing so well.

I guess they are relying on the 200 seaters deliveries and a320 reconfiguration to keep casm growth down.


Interesting note on the LR. Hayes indicated it won't be available for delivery until "late 2019"....I wonder if the decision is made, whether B6 will announce its intentions with the aircraft (i.e. citing specific markets), or if they will sit on such information as long as possible in order to decrease the amount of time its competitors have to react.

I'm a bit surprised to see more Mint aircraft aren't being added this year either - FLL-LAX is going gangbusters up front, although I assume the yield in the back of the bus isn't exactly amazing. Also keep in mind that in addition to JFK/BOS-SEA and BOS-LAS, a third BOS-SAN and the seasonal third BOS-SEA flight will pick up Mint, a 5th frequency was added on BOS-SFO, and an 11th frequency was added on JFK-LAX. I bet B6 will make BOS-SEA 3x and JFK-SEA 2x year-round instead of just seasonal additions.

The 200-seat 321's were specifically mentioned as a tool to keep fares "low" in leisure markets from BOS -- which I interpret as a competitive response to DL's buildup and NK's recent entry into more BOS leisure markets. By introducing the all-core 321 into these markets, B6 should be able to sustain a CASM advantage, and the product on these birds is also superior to the A320's (although, as mentioned in the call, the first retrofit has finally commenced).

The 321LR requires the PIP on the PW1100G due next year. I'm shocked early PIPs are available.

B6 needs more MINT. They also need to put more seats in Y to push people to pay for legroom. I love B6, but they are so comfy, why upgrade?

I cannot wait for TATL MINT! I could only home for MINT to LGB. Don't worry, I've seen the yeilds and don't expect it...But I want it.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
FlyinRabbit88
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:54 pm

And on Jan 31st, B6ALPA will picket in front of LSC as it’s been over 3 years and counting with regardings to a contract.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:05 pm

Hayes mention A321neoLR decision will be through a "margin lens". It may not be a sure thing if they do not think they can get the yield across the pond.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
ShinyAndChrome
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:10 pm

lightsaber wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
The other thing they mentioned is that an a321lr evaluation is mostly complete and will make an announcement soon.

Kind of crazy to me that they are not adding more mint aircraft this year when a route like fll lax is doing so well.

I guess they are relying on the 200 seaters deliveries and a320 reconfiguration to keep casm growth down.


Interesting note on the LR. Hayes indicated it won't be available for delivery until "late 2019"....I wonder if the decision is made, whether B6 will announce its intentions with the aircraft (i.e. citing specific markets), or if they will sit on such information as long as possible in order to decrease the amount of time its competitors have to react.

I'm a bit surprised to see more Mint aircraft aren't being added this year either - FLL-LAX is going gangbusters up front, although I assume the yield in the back of the bus isn't exactly amazing. Also keep in mind that in addition to JFK/BOS-SEA and BOS-LAS, a third BOS-SAN and the seasonal third BOS-SEA flight will pick up Mint, a 5th frequency was added on BOS-SFO, and an 11th frequency was added on JFK-LAX. I bet B6 will make BOS-SEA 3x and JFK-SEA 2x year-round instead of just seasonal additions.

The 200-seat 321's were specifically mentioned as a tool to keep fares "low" in leisure markets from BOS -- which I interpret as a competitive response to DL's buildup and NK's recent entry into more BOS leisure markets. By introducing the all-core 321 into these markets, B6 should be able to sustain a CASM advantage, and the product on these birds is also superior to the A320's (although, as mentioned in the call, the first retrofit has finally commenced).

The 321LR requires the PIP on the PW1100G due next year. I'm shocked early PIPs are available.

B6 needs more MINT. They also need to put more seats in Y to push people to pay for legroom. I love B6, but they are so comfy, why upgrade?

I cannot wait for TATL MINT! I could only home for MINT to LGB. Don't worry, I've seen the yeilds and don't expect it...But I want it.

Lightsaber


The A320 retrofit should entail some coach densification. At least that’s what was mentioned in the Skift article from earlier this week.

Going on an aside, I’ll be curious to see how the recent C-Series ruling affects B6s fleet review. Of all the US carriers who haven’t ordered it, I’d peg B6 as the most likely to jump in and they’d still get them at a great price.
 
fastmover
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:56 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
Hayes mention A321neoLR decision will be through a "margin lens". It may not be a sure thing if they do not think they can get the yield across the pond.


They have talked so so much about it I can’t see how it doesn’t happen.
In a way you have to say that. We will fly where we make the most money....no way really ;)
 
fastmover
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:57 pm

winginit wrote:
dc10lover wrote:
So many people love B6 and their excellent customer service, no wonder B6 is doing very good.


With a top line miss, the question remains as to whether or not customers are willing to pay a premium for that excellent customer service. In the past that simply hasn't been the case, and B6 is still needing to sharply discount Mint to compete with legacy transcon services. They'll need to get those yields up to offset the CASM creep.



They have been raising the price on mint. It has actually happened faster than they thought.
 
tphuang
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:10 am

I still see jetblue purchasing e2 although I think having cs100 cleared of tariffs certainly give them a lot more bargaining power. All depends on what kind of deal airbus offers them I guess.

As for tatl, I really can't see it not happening at this point. Even if margin is not great on tatl itself, it's good for system wide margins. They fly from bos to atl, dfw and hou. I am pretty sure those routes all loose money, but they are needed to strengthen bos hub.
 
fastmover
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:17 am

tphuang wrote:
I still see jetblue purchasing e2 although I think having cs100 cleared of tariffs certainly give them a lot more bargaining power. All depends on what kind of deal airbus offers them I guess.

As for tatl, I really can't see it not happening at this point. Even if margin is not great on tatl itself, it's good for system wide margins. They fly from bos to atl, dfw and hou. I am pretty sure those routes all loose money, but they are needed to strengthen bos hub.



I’m pretty sure it will be the E2. It will be a quick differences training for the pilots.
With the numbers coming back from the E2 I just can’t see how they pass. If I was to guess they own 30 and lease the others so I can see 30 E2s coming and the ones on lease going back. But again only a guess.

The 321lrs is almost a no brainer. Boston is perfect you can dip your toe into TATL and if it does not work easily work them into other routes. But with mint I can’t see it not happening.

Big problem right now is labor. The FAs are about to vote and other groups are talking about it. On Jan 31st a few hundred jetblue pilots will informational picket at HQ. There is definitely some major labor problems and it doesn’t feel like the company is rowing together.

I still think the ELT has not done a good job of communicating what the vision is for JetBlue. It’s a money making airline and even with two storms taking out large parts of the route network they still did well. I don’t think any other airline felt such an impact from the weather this year.

It’s going to be a very interesting year.
 
Abeam79
Posts: 298
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 am

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:48 am

I’ve heard they are very interested with what the c-series offers and what it has performed so far. Bombardier under under the arm of airbus, which has a very superior marketing and negotiation team compared to embraer which left a sour taste with JetBlue on how they sold them a bag of bad apples with the E190’s has the advantage here with getting a deal with JetBlue.
Long term the c-series makes JetBlue positioned for a more efficient network. It can even do an all premium offered tatl ala BA A319 Jfk-lcy if they even want to try that as bombardier has already proved. And they can be an all airbus airline which in the end can streamline contracts and costs. With the ruling now with the intl trade commission now ruling against boeing, I can see B6 now inking a deal next.
Also I think tatl and the LR is pretty much certain. If you google JetBlue and Europe there are dozens of articles on how much they have already planned through it. Western Europe is a mo brainer if they want to build the corporate portfolio in nyc and Boston and strengthening network margins.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 434
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sat Jan 27, 2018 2:11 am

winginit wrote:
With a top line miss, the question remains as to whether or not customers are willing to pay a premium for that excellent customer service.


The bigger question is if Jetblue is willing to start paying a premium for the workers giving that excellent customer service. The FAs are chomping at the bit to vote yes soon as this gov. shut down thing ends, the pilots have completely lost patience with the company stall tactics, and its all trickling down to the other work groups. IAM is running a very sharp campaign with the rampers that seems to be picking up steam.
 
IPFreely
Posts: 2326
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:26 am

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sat Jan 27, 2018 2:28 am

jetbluefan1 wrote:
There was some mention. B6 management indicated the runway closures at BOS/JFK and understaffing at ATC especially exacerbated the operation. However, "blue sky day" operations had the highest on-time performance in 6 years, and performance at congested Northeast airports largely matched those of competitors. As I noted above, management plans to decrease aircraft utilization and increase afternoon turn-times to help out with operations.


Let's not forget -- if B6 performance at JFK/BOS matched their competitors, then B6 is actually doing better. Because their competitors operate slipshod regional operations that delay and cancel flights in order to make mainline numbers look better. Unlike most competitors -- except WN -- B6 operates all their own flights and does not hide their real performance behind "mainline only" footnotes.
 
IPFreely
Posts: 2326
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:26 am

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sat Jan 27, 2018 2:29 am

CobaltScar wrote:
The FAs are chomping at the bit to vote yes soon as this gov. shut down thing ends,


Not sure what the government shutdown has to do with a FA vote but the three day shutdown has been over for five days.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 434
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:18 am

IPFreely wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
The FAs are chomping at the bit to vote yes soon as this gov. shut down thing ends,


Not sure what the government shutdown has to do with a FA vote but the three day shutdown has been over for five days.



The NMB has said they won't let the vote happen until a lasting budget is approved. They don't want to start the voting period and then another budget shut down happens in the middle of it. So everything is on hold.
 
User avatar
iamjoeym
Posts: 18
Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2016 1:40 pm

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:28 am

CobaltScar wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
CobaltScar wrote:
The FAs are chomping at the bit to vote yes soon as this gov. shut down thing ends,


Not sure what the government shutdown has to do with a FA vote but the three day shutdown has been over for five days.



The NMB has said they won't let the vote happen until a lasting budget is approved. They don't want to start the voting period and then another budget shut down happens in the middle of it. So everything is on hold.


It can't come soon enough #timeweunite
 
tphuang
Posts: 2985
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:24 am

lightsaber wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
The other thing they mentioned is that an a321lr evaluation is mostly complete and will make an announcement soon.

Kind of crazy to me that they are not adding more mint aircraft this year when a route like fll lax is doing so well.

I guess they are relying on the 200 seaters deliveries and a320 reconfiguration to keep casm growth down.


Interesting note on the LR. Hayes indicated it won't be available for delivery until "late 2019"....I wonder if the decision is made, whether B6 will announce its intentions with the aircraft (i.e. citing specific markets), or if they will sit on such information as long as possible in order to decrease the amount of time its competitors have to react.

I'm a bit surprised to see more Mint aircraft aren't being added this year either - FLL-LAX is going gangbusters up front, although I assume the yield in the back of the bus isn't exactly amazing. Also keep in mind that in addition to JFK/BOS-SEA and BOS-LAS, a third BOS-SAN and the seasonal third BOS-SEA flight will pick up Mint, a 5th frequency was added on BOS-SFO, and an 11th frequency was added on JFK-LAX. I bet B6 will make BOS-SEA 3x and JFK-SEA 2x year-round instead of just seasonal additions.

The 200-seat 321's were specifically mentioned as a tool to keep fares "low" in leisure markets from BOS -- which I interpret as a competitive response to DL's buildup and NK's recent entry into more BOS leisure markets. By introducing the all-core 321 into these markets, B6 should be able to sustain a CASM advantage, and the product on these birds is also superior to the A320's (although, as mentioned in the call, the first retrofit has finally commenced).

The 321LR requires the PIP on the PW1100G due next year. I'm shocked early PIPs are available.

B6 needs more MINT. They also need to put more seats in Y to push people to pay for legroom. I love B6, but they are so comfy, why upgrade?

I cannot wait for TATL MINT! I could only home for MINT to LGB. Don't worry, I've seen the yeilds and don't expect it...But I want it.

Lightsaber


fares from NYC/BOS to LGB is actually not too bad. A lot higher than say BUF-LAX or MCO-LAX.

Maybe B6 had already signaled that they want PIPs to Pratt and just have not agreed to price with Airbus on LR yet? Pardon me for my ignorance here, but will only a limited number of PW1100G have the PIP when they become available? When do PIP become standard for all the production engines?

Mint aircraft is already really well laid out, but they can certainly reduce the Y pitch a little pit and reduce the number of Y+ rows to add more mint suites for these TATL mint or more rows of Y seat. I guess this will happen when ACF becomes standard?

Also, I feel like A321NEO should be sufficient for major destinations from BOS like LON/DUB/PAR? Is there any reason they need to wait for LR?

pitbosflyer wrote:
No mention of the low ranking this year for on time arrivals? I know the summer runway maintenance at BOS/JFK were largely to blame, but still could have at least been mentioned. I've seen alot of negative press lately about the on time arrivals for B6 this year.

They mentioned that they are doing better in blue sky days. And that seems to match what I'm seeing when I look up flightstats.com here and there. But they do operate under areas that get a lot of weather disruptions. They claim that they will reduce utilization and increase turn time to help their on time record. But we will see if that pans out. They certainly can't have too many years like 2017 or they will really start to loose corporate clients in Boston and New York.

fyi, I've been trying to monitor BOS-PIT fares since DL entered. No data yet, since they started in Oct 1 and only Q3 is available. But looks like the fares are a lot higher in Q3 than Q2. Based on BOS-BUF, DL might be drastically undercutting B6 on some of these new routes. Not sure how that's sustainable given their higher costs.

fastmover wrote:
I’m pretty sure it will be the E2. It will be a quick differences training for the pilots.
With the numbers coming back from the E2 I just can’t see how they pass. If I was to guess they own 30 and lease the others so I can see 30 E2s coming and the ones on lease going back. But again only a guess.

The 321lrs is almost a no brainer. Boston is perfect you can dip your toe into TATL and if it does not work easily work them into other routes. But with mint I can’t see it not happening.

Big problem right now is labor. The FAs are about to vote and other groups are talking about it. On Jan 31st a few hundred jetblue pilots will informational picket at HQ. There is definitely some major labor problems and it doesn’t feel like the company is rowing together.

I still think the ELT has not done a good job of communicating what the vision is for JetBlue. It’s a money making airline and even with two storms taking out large parts of the route network they still did well. I don’t think any other airline felt such an impact from the weather this year.

It’s going to be a very interesting year.

yep, definitely an interesting year. Seems like they are doing well financially and i'm a little disappointed they have taken WN approach of using the tax cut opportunity to order some more A321s.

Do you know if they have started to EOTPS certification?
 
Abeam79
Posts: 298
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 am

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sat Jan 27, 2018 2:41 pm

tphuang wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:

Interesting note on the LR. Hayes indicated it won't be available for delivery until "late 2019"....I wonder if the decision is made, whether B6 will announce its intentions with the aircraft (i.e. citing specific markets), or if they will sit on such information as long as possible in order to decrease the amount of time its competitors have to react.

I'm a bit surprised to see more Mint aircraft aren't being added this year either - FLL-LAX is going gangbusters up front, although I assume the yield in the back of the bus isn't exactly amazing. Also keep in mind that in addition to JFK/BOS-SEA and BOS-LAS, a third BOS-SAN and the seasonal third BOS-SEA flight will pick up Mint, a 5th frequency was added on BOS-SFO, and an 11th frequency was added on JFK-LAX. I bet B6 will make BOS-SEA 3x and JFK-SEA 2x year-round instead of just seasonal additions.

The 200-seat 321's were specifically mentioned as a tool to keep fares "low" in leisure markets from BOS -- which I interpret as a competitive response to DL's buildup and NK's recent entry into more BOS leisure markets. By introducing the all-core 321 into these markets, B6 should be able to sustain a CASM advantage, and the product on these birds is also superior to the A320's (although, as mentioned in the call, the first retrofit has finally commenced).

The 321LR requires the PIP on the PW1100G due next year. I'm shocked early PIPs are available.

B6 needs more MINT. They also need to put more seats in Y to push people to pay for legroom. I love B6, but they are so comfy, why upgrade?

I cannot wait for TATL MINT! I could only home for MINT to LGB. Don't worry, I've seen the yeilds and don't expect it...But I want it.

Lightsaber


fares from NYC/BOS to LGB is actually not too bad. A lot higher than say BUF-LAX or MCO-LAX.

Maybe B6 had already signaled that they want PIPs to Pratt and just have not agreed to price with Airbus on LR yet? Pardon me for my ignorance here, but will only a limited number of PW1100G have the PIP when they become available? When do PIP become standard for all the production engines?

Mint aircraft is already really well laid out, but they can certainly reduce the Y pitch a little pit and reduce the number of Y+ rows to add more mint suites for these TATL mint or more rows of Y seat. I guess this will happen when ACF becomes standard?

Also, I feel like A321NEO should be sufficient for major destinations from BOS like LON/DUB/PAR? Is there any reason they need to wait for LR?

pitbosflyer wrote:
No mention of the low ranking this year for on time arrivals? I know the summer runway maintenance at BOS/JFK were largely to blame, but still could have at least been mentioned. I've seen alot of negative press lately about the on time arrivals for B6 this year.

They mentioned that they are doing better in blue sky days. And that seems to match what I'm seeing when I look up flightstats.com here and there. But they do operate under areas that get a lot of weather disruptions. They claim that they will reduce utilization and increase turn time to help their on time record. But we will see if that pans out. They certainly can't have too many years like 2017 or they will really start to loose corporate clients in Boston and New York.

fyi, I've been trying to monitor BOS-PIT fares since DL entered. No data yet, since they started in Oct 1 and only Q3 is available. But looks like the fares are a lot higher in Q3 than Q2. Based on BOS-BUF, DL might be drastically undercutting B6 on some of these new routes. Not sure how that's sustainable given their higher costs.

fastmover wrote:
I’m pretty sure it will be the E2. It will be a quick differences training for the pilots.
With the numbers coming back from the E2 I just can’t see how they pass. If I was to guess they own 30 and lease the others so I can see 30 E2s coming and the ones on lease going back. But again only a guess.

The 321lrs is almost a no brainer. Boston is perfect you can dip your toe into TATL and if it does not work easily work them into other routes. But with mint I can’t see it not happening.

Big problem right now is labor. The FAs are about to vote and other groups are talking about it. On Jan 31st a few hundred jetblue pilots will informational picket at HQ. There is definitely some major labor problems and it doesn’t feel like the company is rowing together.

I still think the ELT has not done a good job of communicating what the vision is for JetBlue. It’s a money making airline and even with two storms taking out large parts of the route network they still did well. I don’t think any other airline felt such an impact from the weather this year.

It’s going to be a very interesting year.

yep, definitely an interesting year. Seems like they are doing well financially and i'm a little disappointed they have taken WN approach of using the tax cut opportunity to order some more A321s.

Do you know if they have started to EOTPS certification?

Yes they have started Etops certification as far as I know.
I think they will use the tax code for some additional aircraft orders or amendments. Rumor is they want to convert all remaining NEO's both A320 & A321 FOR THE LR'S which will give them a substantially large long range fleet. But I think they will use the majority of the new tax code to come with an agreement with ALPA for a pilot contract. At least thats what they should do.
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 189
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:20 pm

tphuang wrote:
Also, I feel like A321NEO should be sufficient for major destinations from BOS like LON/DUB/PAR? Is there any reason they need to wait for LR?


If we just base it on publicly available range data, even the A321ceo could make those routes and we don’t see anyone flying those Transatlantic in large numbers. B6 probably figures that after considering their desired configuration, seasonal weather fluctuations, and westbound (I think it’s westbound versus east) performance hurdles, they’d be better waiting for the more specialized plane.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2985
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:44 pm

Abeam79 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The 321LR requires the PIP on the PW1100G due next year. I'm shocked early PIPs are available.

B6 needs more MINT. They also need to put more seats in Y to push people to pay for legroom. I love B6, but they are so comfy, why upgrade?

I cannot wait for TATL MINT! I could only home for MINT to LGB. Don't worry, I've seen the yeilds and don't expect it...But I want it.

Lightsaber


fares from NYC/BOS to LGB is actually not too bad. A lot higher than say BUF-LAX or MCO-LAX.

Maybe B6 had already signaled that they want PIPs to Pratt and just have not agreed to price with Airbus on LR yet? Pardon me for my ignorance here, but will only a limited number of PW1100G have the PIP when they become available? When do PIP become standard for all the production engines?

Mint aircraft is already really well laid out, but they can certainly reduce the Y pitch a little pit and reduce the number of Y+ rows to add more mint suites for these TATL mint or more rows of Y seat. I guess this will happen when ACF becomes standard?

Also, I feel like A321NEO should be sufficient for major destinations from BOS like LON/DUB/PAR? Is there any reason they need to wait for LR?
yep, definitely an interesting year. Seems like they are doing well financially and i'm a little disappointed they have taken WN approach of using the tax cut opportunity to order some more A321s.

Do you know if they have started to EOTPS certification?

Yes they have started Etops certification as far as I know.
I think they will use the tax code for some additional aircraft orders or amendments. Rumor is they want to convert all remaining NEO's both A320 & A321 FOR THE LR'S which will give them a substantially large long range fleet. But I think they will use the majority of the new tax code to come with an agreement with ALPA for a pilot contract. At least thats what they should do.


here is gcmap from BOS for 3400 nm. Not sure if that's too aggressive considering the North Atlantic wind. But since B6 will have a more premium configured A321 of probably 150 to 160 passengers, it's might be ok.
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=BOS-BCN%3B ... =wls&DU=mi

Looks like most of the cities in Germany, Spain and France would be covered in addition to MXP. FCO might be a little bit out, but that would be more of a seasonal route anyhow.

And 3750 nm from FLL
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=FLL-LHR%3B ... =wls&DU=mi

London looks too aggressive, but all the major South American cities are possible.

Definitely a lot of room to expand internationally from BOS/JFK/FLL.
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 189
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:42 pm

I looked at the same GC map earlier. While it might work out on paper, if B6 management has repeatedly tied the possibility of TATL specifically to the LRs, then clearly there’s something the publicly available data isn’t showing.

Also, absolutely everything related to B6 TATL is still purely speculative at this point. We can’t just assume that they’ll run a particular configuration before anything is announced. When I mentioned “desired configuration”, that was more about whatever their configuration might look like than any particular number of seats, F/Y mix, etc. A 150-160 seat layout would be among the lowest gauge planes flying across the Atlantic and it’s far from certain that the economics would work (it might, but it’s hardly the obvious slam dunk that so many here assume).
 
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adamh8297
Posts: 3047
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Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:43 pm

tphuang wrote:
here is gcmap from BOS for 3400 nm. Not sure if that's too aggressive considering the North Atlantic wind. But since B6 will have a more premium configured A321 of probably 150 to 160 passengers, it's might be ok.
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=BOS-BCN%3B ... =wls&DU=mi

Looks like most of the cities in Germany, Spain and France would be covered in addition to MXP. FCO might be a little bit out, but that would be more of a seasonal route anyhow.

And 3750 nm from FLL
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=FLL-LHR%3B ... =wls&DU=mi

London looks too aggressive, but all the major South American cities are possible.

Definitely a lot of room to expand internationally from BOS/JFK/FLL.


Hayes mentioned high yielding underserved markets in a previous call

If they go with A321neoLR: I think they mix big markets and markets this plane can now serve.

BOS-STN/LGW which may depend on either Norwegian or Primera having issues. If one of these airlines is $600 and B6 is $750 - I'm flying B6.
BOS-ORY
BOS-AMS or BRU or DUS - Big catchment areas in the middle of the blue banana. I wonder if they wanted to tie up with AB at the end to get an idea on DUS.
BOS-GVA - high yield, low seasonality, underserved obviously could tie up with EasyJet Switzerland.
BOS-HAM or ARN -whoever gives them the best deal + potential yield mix since these are airports looking for BOS service.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
jetbluefan1
Topic Author
Posts: 3267
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sun Jan 28, 2018 2:46 pm

tphuang wrote:
I still see jetblue purchasing e2 although I think having cs100 cleared of tariffs certainly give them a lot more bargaining power. All depends on what kind of deal airbus offers them I guess.

As for tatl, I really can't see it not happening at this point. Even if margin is not great on tatl itself, it's good for system wide margins. They fly from bos to atl, dfw and hou. I am pretty sure those routes all loose money, but they are needed to strengthen bos hub.


I think the ITC ruling on Bombardier seriously changes the calculus, and give B6 much more negotiating power with both Embraer and Bombardier. Somehow, I think B6 will end up with the CS100.

ShinyAndChrome wrote:
I looked at the same GC map earlier. While it might work out on paper, if B6 management has repeatedly tied the possibility of TATL specifically to the LRs, then clearly there’s something the publicly available data isn’t showing.

Also, absolutely everything related to B6 TATL is still purely speculative at this point. We can’t just assume that they’ll run a particular configuration before anything is announced. When I mentioned “desired configuration”, that was more about whatever their configuration might look like than any particular number of seats, F/Y mix, etc. A 150-160 seat layout would be among the lowest gauge planes flying across the Atlantic and it’s far from certain that the economics would work (it might, but it’s hardly the obvious slam dunk that so many here assume).


The economics of the A321LR certainly presents its challenges in highly competitive markets (such as BOS-LON), and the TATL market is much, much different from the US Transcon market, so the Mint vs. Core mix could very well differ from 16/143.

On the other hand, needing to fill up a smaller cabin reduces the need to discount fares, and B6 already commands a fare premium on numerous markets ex-BOS, so they very well could do the same on BOS TATL.

JFK TATL, on the other hand, is a whole other animal...

adamh8297 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
here is gcmap from BOS for 3400 nm. Not sure if that's too aggressive considering the North Atlantic wind. But since B6 will have a more premium configured A321 of probably 150 to 160 passengers, it's might be ok.
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=BOS-BCN%3B ... =wls&DU=mi

Looks like most of the cities in Germany, Spain and France would be covered in addition to MXP. FCO might be a little bit out, but that would be more of a seasonal route anyhow.

And 3750 nm from FLL
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=FLL-LHR%3B ... =wls&DU=mi

London looks too aggressive, but all the major South American cities are possible.

Definitely a lot of room to expand internationally from BOS/JFK/FLL.


Hayes mentioned high yielding underserved markets in a previous call

If they go with A321neoLR: I think they mix big markets and markets this plane can now serve.

BOS-STN/LGW which may depend on either Norwegian or Primera having issues. If one of these airlines is $600 and B6 is $750 - I'm flying B6.
BOS-ORY
BOS-AMS or BRU or DUS - Big catchment areas in the middle of the blue banana. I wonder if they wanted to tie up with AB at the end to get an idea on DUS.
BOS-GVA - high yield, low seasonality, underserved obviously could tie up with EasyJet Switzerland.
BOS-HAM or ARN -whoever gives them the best deal + potential yield mix since these are airports looking for BOS service.


Great list. I'd also add:

BOS-TXL - surprised there is no service from BOS to the German capital; both wealthy and culturally rich cities, liberal
BOS-MXP - also unserved, could work seasonally
BOS-LIS - currently served by partner TAP, but large Portuguese population in BOS metro could appreciate options
BOS-BCN - also unserved, could work seasonally

That said, I think the first B6 TATL market will be BOS-DUB :hyper:

Anyone want to take bets on how B6 enters the London market? Hard to see them going anywhere other than LHR in order to be remotely competitive for BOS-based corporate traffic.
 
twicearound
Posts: 132
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:56 pm

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:16 pm

In regards to a TATL attempt, I wonder how that would play out for B6's airline partners. They don't have a JV or a real alliance yet rely on cooperation with quite a few airlines. I don't see Aer Lingus being too pleased if B6 were to jump on their bread and butter TATL routes (JFK/BOS-DUB).
 
bendytendy
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 2:28 am

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sun Jan 28, 2018 4:23 pm

twicearound wrote:
In regards to a TATL attempt, I wonder how that would play out for B6's airline partners. They don't have a JV or a real alliance yet rely on cooperation with quite a few airlines. I don't see Aer Lingus being too pleased if B6 were to jump on their bread and butter TATL routes (JFK/BOS-DUB).


Perhaps they could enter into a JV with EL and also TP to please their partners. Having a low capacity aircraft would allow for more flights to work, especially during slower seasons. B6 teaming up would allow EL to help take traffic away from DL on BOS-DUB by offering more departure times
 
twicearound
Posts: 132
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:56 pm

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sun Jan 28, 2018 4:29 pm

bendytendy wrote:
twicearound wrote:
In regards to a TATL attempt, I wonder how that would play out for B6's airline partners. They don't have a JV or a real alliance yet rely on cooperation with quite a few airlines. I don't see Aer Lingus being too pleased if B6 were to jump on their bread and butter TATL routes (JFK/BOS-DUB).


Perhaps they could enter into a JV with EL and also TP to please their partners. Having a low capacity aircraft would allow for more flights to work, especially during slower seasons. B6 teaming up would allow EL to help take traffic away from DL on BOS-DUB by offering more departure times


I'm assuming you mean EI. Aer Lingus would have little to gain from that, having to share profits that are already theirs in markets they already serve. And a low capacity aircraft would be pointless on a route like BOS-DUB where they are already using multiple A330's a day or a route like BOS-SNN where they have the 757 during low demand periods.
 
User avatar
adamh8297
Posts: 3047
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:28 pm

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sun Jan 28, 2018 4:34 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:

adamh8297 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
here is gcmap from BOS for 3400 nm. Not sure if that's too aggressive considering the North Atlantic wind. But since B6 will have a more premium configured A321 of probably 150 to 160 passengers, it's might be ok.
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=BOS-BCN%3B ... =wls&DU=mi

Looks like most of the cities in Germany, Spain and France would be covered in addition to MXP. FCO might be a little bit out, but that would be more of a seasonal route anyhow.

And 3750 nm from FLL
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=FLL-LHR%3B ... =wls&DU=mi

London looks too aggressive, but all the major South American cities are possible.

Definitely a lot of room to expand internationally from BOS/JFK/FLL.


Hayes mentioned high yielding underserved markets in a previous call

If they go with A321neoLR: I think they mix big markets and markets this plane can now serve.

BOS-STN/LGW which may depend on either Norwegian or Primera having issues. If one of these airlines is $600 and B6 is $750 - I'm flying B6.
BOS-ORY
BOS-AMS or BRU or DUS - Big catchment areas in the middle of the blue banana. I wonder if they wanted to tie up with AB at the end to get an idea on DUS.
BOS-GVA - high yield, low seasonality, underserved obviously could tie up with EasyJet Switzerland.
BOS-HAM or ARN -whoever gives them the best deal + potential yield mix since these are airports looking for BOS service.


Great list. I'd also add:

BOS-TXL - surprised there is no service from BOS to the German capital; both wealthy and culturally rich cities, liberal
BOS-MXP - also unserved, could work seasonally
BOS-LIS - currently served by partner TAP, but large Portuguese population in BOS metro could appreciate options
BOS-BCN - also unserved, could work seasonally

That said, I think the first B6 TATL market will be BOS-DUB :hyper:

Anyone want to take bets on how B6 enters the London market? Hard to see them going anywhere other than LHR in order to be remotely competitive for BOS-based corporate traffic.


Would love to see TXL link but not the best for business. Could be a good seasonal route. DUS would be better but DUS may not get any tourist traffic. I doubt the average American even knows where DUS is. BCN makes absolute sense as a potential seasonal route.

You bring up a good point about seasonality as well. Capacity in a nutshell doubles for BOS in summer. How does B6 manage that? Will there be seasonal routes? Will big markets (LON/DUB) have frequency increases.

LIS and DUB I'll mentioned with the quote below

twicearound wrote:
In regards to a TATL attempt, I wonder how that would play out for B6's airline partners. They don't have a JV or a real alliance yet rely on cooperation with quite a few airlines. I don't see Aer Lingus being too pleased if B6 were to jump on their bread and butter TATL routes (JFK/BOS-DUB).


IAG could pull the rug out from under the EI-B6 deal at any point too but they would probably still interline: compete but play nice at the same time. BOS-DUB is a no brainer if this happens.

Besides IAG airlines: ither partners may glady accept B6 feed: SU, AI, SA, ME3, TK etc. DE/MT would be interesting if they would take feed and open up all of the destinations they serve to B6's network.

Could TP get into a JV with B6? They are sort of the red-headed stepchild of *A.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 189
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:03 pm

I can’t see B6 getting any closer to EI than they already are, not when EI is planning to get into the AA/BA joint venture. If B6 does want to eventually go down that path (though they’ve protested recent JV applications from others), it would have to be with unaligned or weakly-aligned carriers like TP.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2985
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:33 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I still see jetblue purchasing e2 although I think having cs100 cleared of tariffs certainly give them a lot more bargaining power. All depends on what kind of deal airbus offers them I guess.

As for tatl, I really can't see it not happening at this point. Even if margin is not great on tatl itself, it's good for system wide margins. They fly from bos to atl, dfw and hou. I am pretty sure those routes all loose money, but they are needed to strengthen bos hub.


I think the ITC ruling on Bombardier seriously changes the calculus, and give B6 much more negotiating power with both Embraer and Bombardier. Somehow, I think B6 will end up with the CS100.

ShinyAndChrome wrote:
I looked at the same GC map earlier. While it might work out on paper, if B6 management has repeatedly tied the possibility of TATL specifically to the LRs, then clearly there’s something the publicly available data isn’t showing.

Also, absolutely everything related to B6 TATL is still purely speculative at this point. We can’t just assume that they’ll run a particular configuration before anything is announced. When I mentioned “desired configuration”, that was more about whatever their configuration might look like than any particular number of seats, F/Y mix, etc. A 150-160 seat layout would be among the lowest gauge planes flying across the Atlantic and it’s far from certain that the economics would work (it might, but it’s hardly the obvious slam dunk that so many here assume).


The economics of the A321LR certainly presents its challenges in highly competitive markets (such as BOS-LON), and the TATL market is much, much different from the US Transcon market, so the Mint vs. Core mix could very well differ from 16/143.

On the other hand, needing to fill up a smaller cabin reduces the need to discount fares, and B6 already commands a fare premium on numerous markets ex-BOS, so they very well could do the same on BOS TATL.

JFK TATL, on the other hand, is a whole other animal...

adamh8297 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
here is gcmap from BOS for 3400 nm. Not sure if that's too aggressive considering the North Atlantic wind. But since B6 will have a more premium configured A321 of probably 150 to 160 passengers, it's might be ok.
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=BOS-BCN%3B ... =wls&DU=mi

Looks like most of the cities in Germany, Spain and France would be covered in addition to MXP. FCO might be a little bit out, but that would be more of a seasonal route anyhow.

And 3750 nm from FLL
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=FLL-LHR%3B ... =wls&DU=mi

London looks too aggressive, but all the major South American cities are possible.

Definitely a lot of room to expand internationally from BOS/JFK/FLL.


Hayes mentioned high yielding underserved markets in a previous call

If they go with A321neoLR: I think they mix big markets and markets this plane can now serve.

BOS-STN/LGW which may depend on either Norwegian or Primera having issues. If one of these airlines is $600 and B6 is $750 - I'm flying B6.
BOS-ORY
BOS-AMS or BRU or DUS - Big catchment areas in the middle of the blue banana. I wonder if they wanted to tie up with AB at the end to get an idea on DUS.
BOS-GVA - high yield, low seasonality, underserved obviously could tie up with EasyJet Switzerland.
BOS-HAM or ARN -whoever gives them the best deal + potential yield mix since these are airports looking for BOS service.


Great list. I'd also add:

BOS-TXL - surprised there is no service from BOS to the German capital; both wealthy and culturally rich cities, liberal
BOS-MXP - also unserved, could work seasonally
BOS-LIS - currently served by partner TAP, but large Portuguese population in BOS metro could appreciate options
BOS-BCN - also unserved, could work seasonally

That said, I think the first B6 TATL market will be BOS-DUB :hyper:

Anyone want to take bets on how B6 enters the London market? Hard to see them going anywhere other than LHR in order to be remotely competitive for BOS-based corporate traffic.


I think when B6 enters BOS-DUB, which I also think will be their first TATL route, it will make a huge difference. They may not have a lot of capacity but a more premium heavy A321NEO going across the Ocean could have 20+ J seats and have significant effect on premium cabin pricing on the market. I'm sure EI will be pissed, but it won't be first time code sharing partners compete on the same route.

As for London, LHR would be the best, but I can't see them getting enough slots for both BOS/JFK. It doesn't make sense to have a split operation. So I think they will start off at LGW. At least for me, LGW shows up as an option for London on concur. Or maybe they will avoid the NYC-LON market to start off. In that case, if they can get 2 slots at LHR, then they can make a serious dent. I don't see how DL can stay on that route with a 60% LF if J class pricing is at $1200 O/W.

If they do want to pick up more of the wall street NYC crowd though, they have to enter NYC-LON market. I would imagine a schedule of 4 a day with 3 evening departures and 1 morning departure is needed at minimum. How they can get 4 or 5 morning landing slots at LHR for BOS & JFK, that would be beyond me. The evening landing slots at LHR should be easier to get. LGW on the other hand, they should be able to get that if they work some kind of partnership out with EasyJet.

Really depends on how Boston focused they want to be here. I think if they are selling J to LGW at $2500-300 R/T a pop from JFK, I'd have a hard time telling my bosses that I don't pick JetBlue even if it's not LHR.
 
twicearound
Posts: 132
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:56 pm

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:54 pm

tphuang wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I still see jetblue purchasing e2 although I think having cs100 cleared of tariffs certainly give them a lot more bargaining power. All depends on what kind of deal airbus offers them I guess.

As for tatl, I really can't see it not happening at this point. Even if margin is not great on tatl itself, it's good for system wide margins. They fly from bos to atl, dfw and hou. I am pretty sure those routes all loose money, but they are needed to strengthen bos hub.


I think the ITC ruling on Bombardier seriously changes the calculus, and give B6 much more negotiating power with both Embraer and Bombardier. Somehow, I think B6 will end up with the CS100.

ShinyAndChrome wrote:
I looked at the same GC map earlier. While it might work out on paper, if B6 management has repeatedly tied the possibility of TATL specifically to the LRs, then clearly there’s something the publicly available data isn’t showing.

Also, absolutely everything related to B6 TATL is still purely speculative at this point. We can’t just assume that they’ll run a particular configuration before anything is announced. When I mentioned “desired configuration”, that was more about whatever their configuration might look like than any particular number of seats, F/Y mix, etc. A 150-160 seat layout would be among the lowest gauge planes flying across the Atlantic and it’s far from certain that the economics would work (it might, but it’s hardly the obvious slam dunk that so many here assume).


The economics of the A321LR certainly presents its challenges in highly competitive markets (such as BOS-LON), and the TATL market is much, much different from the US Transcon market, so the Mint vs. Core mix could very well differ from 16/143.

On the other hand, needing to fill up a smaller cabin reduces the need to discount fares, and B6 already commands a fare premium on numerous markets ex-BOS, so they very well could do the same on BOS TATL.

JFK TATL, on the other hand, is a whole other animal...

adamh8297 wrote:

Hayes mentioned high yielding underserved markets in a previous call

If they go with A321neoLR: I think they mix big markets and markets this plane can now serve.

BOS-STN/LGW which may depend on either Norwegian or Primera having issues. If one of these airlines is $600 and B6 is $750 - I'm flying B6.
BOS-ORY
BOS-AMS or BRU or DUS - Big catchment areas in the middle of the blue banana. I wonder if they wanted to tie up with AB at the end to get an idea on DUS.
BOS-GVA - high yield, low seasonality, underserved obviously could tie up with EasyJet Switzerland.
BOS-HAM or ARN -whoever gives them the best deal + potential yield mix since these are airports looking for BOS service.


Great list. I'd also add:

BOS-TXL - surprised there is no service from BOS to the German capital; both wealthy and culturally rich cities, liberal
BOS-MXP - also unserved, could work seasonally
BOS-LIS - currently served by partner TAP, but large Portuguese population in BOS metro could appreciate options
BOS-BCN - also unserved, could work seasonally

That said, I think the first B6 TATL market will be BOS-DUB :hyper:

Anyone want to take bets on how B6 enters the London market? Hard to see them going anywhere other than LHR in order to be remotely competitive for BOS-based corporate traffic.


I think when B6 enters BOS-DUB, which I also think will be their first TATL route, it will make a huge difference. They may not have a lot of capacity but a more premium heavy A321NEO going across the Ocean could have 20+ J seats and have significant effect on premium cabin pricing on the market. I'm sure EI will be pissed, but it won't be first time code sharing partners compete on the same route.

As for London, LHR would be the best, but I can't see them getting enough slots for both BOS/JFK. It doesn't make sense to have a split operation. So I think they will start off at LGW. At least for me, LGW shows up as an option for London on concur. Or maybe they will avoid the NYC-LON market to start off. In that case, if they can get 2 slots at LHR, then they can make a serious dent. I don't see how DL can stay on that route with a 60% LF if J class pricing is at $1200 O/W.

If they do want to pick up more of the wall street NYC crowd though, they have to enter NYC-LON market. I would imagine a schedule of 4 a day with 3 evening departures and 1 morning departure is needed at minimum. How they can get 4 or 5 morning landing slots at LHR for BOS & JFK, that would be beyond me. The evening landing slots at LHR should be easier to get. LGW on the other hand, they should be able to get that if they work some kind of partnership out with EasyJet.

Really depends on how Boston focused they want to be here. I think if they are selling J to LGW at $2500-300 R/T a pop from JFK, I'd have a hard time telling my bosses that I don't pick JetBlue even if it's not LHR.


LF for DL on BOS-LHR are improving, between the Jet airways connections at LHR and the JV with Virgin. They aren't going anywhere. Delta saw the writing on the wall in BOS and knew they'd need to flex their muscle to scare off B6. (hench the DUB launch). Delta is smart and knows how to use resources in ways B6 can't. I would wish B6 the best of luck on any TATL attempt but at the end of the day they are a small fish in a big pond.
 
fastmover
Posts: 419
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:37 pm

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:01 pm

twicearound wrote:
tphuang wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:

I think the ITC ruling on Bombardier seriously changes the calculus, and give B6 much more negotiating power with both Embraer and Bombardier. Somehow, I think B6 will end up with the CS100.



The economics of the A321LR certainly presents its challenges in highly competitive markets (such as BOS-LON), and the TATL market is much, much different from the US Transcon market, so the Mint vs. Core mix could very well differ from 16/143.

On the other hand, needing to fill up a smaller cabin reduces the need to discount fares, and B6 already commands a fare premium on numerous markets ex-BOS, so they very well could do the same on BOS TATL.

JFK TATL, on the other hand, is a whole other animal...



Great list. I'd also add:

BOS-TXL - surprised there is no service from BOS to the German capital; both wealthy and culturally rich cities, liberal
BOS-MXP - also unserved, could work seasonally
BOS-LIS - currently served by partner TAP, but large Portuguese population in BOS metro could appreciate options
BOS-BCN - also unserved, could work seasonally

That said, I think the first B6 TATL market will be BOS-DUB :hyper:

Anyone want to take bets on how B6 enters the London market? Hard to see them going anywhere other than LHR in order to be remotely competitive for BOS-based corporate traffic.


I think when B6 enters BOS-DUB, which I also think will be their first TATL route, it will make a huge difference. They may not have a lot of capacity but a more premium heavy A321NEO going across the Ocean could have 20+ J seats and have significant effect on premium cabin pricing on the market. I'm sure EI will be pissed, but it won't be first time code sharing partners compete on the same route.

As for London, LHR would be the best, but I can't see them getting enough slots for both BOS/JFK. It doesn't make sense to have a split operation. So I think they will start off at LGW. At least for me, LGW shows up as an option for London on concur. Or maybe they will avoid the NYC-LON market to start off. In that case, if they can get 2 slots at LHR, then they can make a serious dent. I don't see how DL can stay on that route with a 60% LF if J class pricing is at $1200 O/W.

If they do want to pick up more of the wall street NYC crowd though, they have to enter NYC-LON market. I would imagine a schedule of 4 a day with 3 evening departures and 1 morning departure is needed at minimum. How they can get 4 or 5 morning landing slots at LHR for BOS & JFK, that would be beyond me. The evening landing slots at LHR should be easier to get. LGW on the other hand, they should be able to get that if they work some kind of partnership out with EasyJet.

Really depends on how Boston focused they want to be here. I think if they are selling J to LGW at $2500-300 R/T a pop from JFK, I'd have a hard time telling my bosses that I don't pick JetBlue even if it's not LHR.


LF for DL on BOS-LHR are improving, between the Jet airways connections at LHR and the JV with Virgin. They aren't going anywhere. Delta saw the writing on the wall in BOS and knew they'd need to flex their muscle to scare off B6. (hench the DUB launch). Delta is smart and knows how to use resources in ways B6 can't. I would wish B6 the best of luck on any TATL attempt but at the end of the day they are a small fish in a big pond.



And what is B6 being “scared off “ of ?

B6 has made it clear they they are working on this if it is not going to happen it’s a massive waste of time.
I don’t think jetblue is scared of Delta.
They will keep growing Boston up to 200 flights and do tatl if it makes money which it will.
 
twicearound
Posts: 132
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:56 pm

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:11 pm

fastmover wrote:
twicearound wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I think when B6 enters BOS-DUB, which I also think will be their first TATL route, it will make a huge difference. They may not have a lot of capacity but a more premium heavy A321NEO going across the Ocean could have 20+ J seats and have significant effect on premium cabin pricing on the market. I'm sure EI will be pissed, but it won't be first time code sharing partners compete on the same route.

As for London, LHR would be the best, but I can't see them getting enough slots for both BOS/JFK. It doesn't make sense to have a split operation. So I think they will start off at LGW. At least for me, LGW shows up as an option for London on concur. Or maybe they will avoid the NYC-LON market to start off. In that case, if they can get 2 slots at LHR, then they can make a serious dent. I don't see how DL can stay on that route with a 60% LF if J class pricing is at $1200 O/W.

If they do want to pick up more of the wall street NYC crowd though, they have to enter NYC-LON market. I would imagine a schedule of 4 a day with 3 evening departures and 1 morning departure is needed at minimum. How they can get 4 or 5 morning landing slots at LHR for BOS & JFK, that would be beyond me. The evening landing slots at LHR should be easier to get. LGW on the other hand, they should be able to get that if they work some kind of partnership out with EasyJet.

Really depends on how Boston focused they want to be here. I think if they are selling J to LGW at $2500-300 R/T a pop from JFK, I'd have a hard time telling my bosses that I don't pick JetBlue even if it's not LHR.


LF for DL on BOS-LHR are improving, between the Jet airways connections at LHR and the JV with Virgin. They aren't going anywhere. Delta saw the writing on the wall in BOS and knew they'd need to flex their muscle to scare off B6. (hench the DUB launch). Delta is smart and knows how to use resources in ways B6 can't. I would wish B6 the best of luck on any TATL attempt but at the end of the day they are a small fish in a big pond.



And what is B6 being “scared off “ of ?

B6 has made it clear they they are working on this if it is not going to happen it’s a massive waste of time.
I don’t think jetblue is scared of Delta.
They will keep growing Boston up to 200 flights and do tatl if it makes money which it will.


They have made it clear they are thinking about it, which dumb dumb of them because that gives other airlines who already have the ability to fly across an ocean a chance to beat them to the punch. I mean come on, they sit there and say "hey we are thinking about jumping into a highly competitive market, but won't have the aircraft or wherewithal to fly said routes for a few years" that just screams warning to other carriers. And B6 is absolutely scared of DL. B6's entire being was built on serving underserved markets and trying to fill a void. (song in bos comes to mind as does flying domestic from jfk) they've been very cautious about jumping into crowded arenas and I don't see that changing.
 
fastmover
Posts: 419
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:37 pm

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:44 pm

twicearound wrote:
fastmover wrote:
twicearound wrote:

LF for DL on BOS-LHR are improving, between the Jet airways connections at LHR and the JV with Virgin. They aren't going anywhere. Delta saw the writing on the wall in BOS and knew they'd need to flex their muscle to scare off B6. (hench the DUB launch). Delta is smart and knows how to use resources in ways B6 can't. I would wish B6 the best of luck on any TATL attempt but at the end of the day they are a small fish in a big pond.



And what is B6 being “scared off “ of ?

B6 has made it clear they they are working on this if it is not going to happen it’s a massive waste of time.
I don’t think jetblue is scared of Delta.
They will keep growing Boston up to 200 flights and do tatl if it makes money which it will.


They have made it clear they are thinking about it, which dumb dumb of them because that gives other airlines who already have the ability to fly across an ocean a chance to beat them to the punch. I mean come on, they sit there and say "hey we are thinking about jumping into a highly competitive market, but won't have the aircraft or wherewithal to fly said routes for a few years" that just screams warning to other carriers.
And B6 is absolutely scared of DL. B6's entire being was built on serving underserved markets and trying to fill a void. (song in bos comes to mind as does flying domestic from jfk) they've been very cautious about jumping into crowded arenas and I don't see that changing.


“And B6 is absolutely scared of DL. B6's entire being was built on serving underserved markets and trying to fill a void. (song in bos comes to mind as does flying domestic from jfk) they've been very cautious about jumping into crowded arenas and I don't see that changing.[/quote]


Not even worth my time
 
tphuang
Posts: 2985
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:50 pm

twicearound wrote:

LF for DL on BOS-LHR are improving, between the Jet airways connections at LHR and the JV with Virgin. They aren't going anywhere. Delta saw the writing on the wall in BOS and knew they'd need to flex their muscle to scare off B6. (hench the DUB launch). Delta is smart and knows how to use resources in ways B6 can't. I would wish B6 the best of luck on any TATL attempt but at the end of the day they are a small fish in a big pond.


The premium transcon market was a crowded one too yet mint has completely changed that market and crashed the yields. It will be a huge problem for legacy competitors when B6 does enter the TATL market and bring down the premium cabin pricing. On transcon markets ex-BOS like LAX/SFO, B6 has a significant fare premium over DL despite being much smaller at LAX/SFO. I don't see why a new entrant like DL on BOS-DUB would have any inherent advantage over B6. If anything, B6's lower cost would give it a better chance of surviving a bloodbath.

twicearound wrote:
fastmover wrote:


And what is B6 being “scared off “ of ?

B6 has made it clear they they are working on this if it is not going to happen it’s a massive waste of time.
I don’t think jetblue is scared of Delta.
They will keep growing Boston up to 200 flights and do tatl if it makes money which it will.


They have made it clear they are thinking about it, which dumb dumb of them because that gives other airlines who already have the ability to fly across an ocean a chance to beat them to the punch. I mean come on, they sit there and say "hey we are thinking about jumping into a highly competitive market, but won't have the aircraft or wherewithal to fly said routes for a few years" that just screams warning to other carriers. And B6 is absolutely scared of DL. B6's entire being was built on serving underserved markets and trying to fill a void. (song in bos comes to mind as does flying domestic from jfk) they've been very cautious about jumping into crowded arenas and I don't see that changing.


A couple of things:

Your logic that B6's and underserved markets couldn't be further from truth. All of the areas that B6 serves right now are some of the most competitive market in the country. Those ex-BOS business routes are all into entrenched hubs of legacy carriers and they actually do really well on them. They have very few monopoly markets out of BOS. They generate those huge yields based on having 20 to 25% lower cost than legacy carriers and having higher fares to many places.

DL at BOS is a very serious threat that B6 needs to focus on, but even if DL expands to 150 flights, B6 will still have gate space advantage that it doesn't have in NYC. If it can continue to generate huge yields (much higher than DL) at NYC, why would it have trouble continuing its profitable operation at BOS? I just have a hard time seeing why it needs to be scared. What new market is DL getting into that B6 is generating so much profit on that it will suffer from competition?

As for TATL market, DUB/LON/PAR would have plenty of competition regardless of whether or not DL entered them. A321NEO (LR) provides them now a perfect aircraft to dip into this market and maintain their huge cost advantage. They have a product that works for this distance. It's proven in the very competitive transcon market. They have most of the major corporate contracts at BOS. I really don't see why it would not work TATL.
 
winginit
Posts: 2543
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: B6 Announces Q4 2017 Earnings

Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:01 pm

tphuang wrote:
They generate those huge yields based on having 20 to 25% lower cost than legacy carriers and having higher fares to many places.


Sorry what yield are we talking about here? Because using the traditional commercial aviation definitions yield has nothing to do with cost. Passenger Revenue / Revenue Passenger Miles. No cost component in the equation.

tphuang wrote:
If it can continue to generate huge yields (much higher than DL) at NYC


Again please be specific as to what yield you're referring to, because B6 does not have a revenue or yield premium to DL in NYC. Some T100 stats below for 3Q2017:

Nondirectional Average Gross Fare, 3Q2017, T100

JFK (All Routes):
DL - $310
B6 - $233

JFKLAX:
DL - $337
B6 - $320

JFKSFO:
DL - $320
B6 - $306

I think you might instead be referring to profit margin, but that isn't made clear.

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