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PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:59 pm
by wnflyguy
With new service now already maxed at 24 Daily flights between 3 airlines.
WN 5 , UA 6 and AS 13.
Who's going to get Gate control for RON aircraft?
Last time I saw a artist rendition looked like parking for only 4 aircraft. 2 Remote and 2 Jetways.

I'm guessing WN and UA will share one gate while AS operations will from the other.

Reminds me of a mini SNA before the C terminal was added and everyone shared gates.
Everything looks great on paper until ATC,MX or weather delays start.

Flyguy

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:17 pm
by SumChristianus
WN's going to PAE? I never heard that.

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:18 pm
by Jshank83
SumChristianus wrote:
WN's going to PAE? I never heard that.


https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... ine-field/

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:24 pm
by dc10lover
Surprised me too. I just saw this on Twitter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SouthwestAir ... 21/photo/1

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:42 pm
by SANFan
wnflyguy wrote:
With new service now already maxed at 24 Daily flights between 3 airlines.
WN 5 , UA 6 and AS 13.
Who's going to get Gate control for RON aircraft?
Last time I saw a artist rendition looked like parking for only 4 aircraft. 2 Remote and 2 Jetways.
Flyguy

Thanks for starting this thread Fly'. I was going to do it when I had a chance. It's needed!

Yes, that's ~24 flights already and, as I posted on the WN thread, who says we won't see several more cx jump into Everett? It could get very interesting.

bb

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:07 pm
by SumChristianus
2 gates will be nowhere near enough for this amount of service. Hardstands?

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:14 pm
by iamlucky13
I just looked in the environmental assessment again.

It covers 23 flights per day. It's analysis used a mix of MD-83 and CRJ-700 aircraft. Presumably if challenged, the airlines can present an analysis demonstrating equal to or better day-night noise level averages with 24 737's and E175's compared to 23 MD-83's and CRJ-700's.

At some point, there won't be any choice but an expanded environmental assessment, which also covers issues like traffic congestion.

I'm also a bit concerned this might be too much too quickly for passengers to shift their flying habits. It would be unfortunate if traffic ramps up slowly enough one of the airlines bails, and the airport is left with only two competitors using up all the slots.

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:22 pm
by SANFan
There is a post over on the WN thread stating that 24 is THE maximum flights permitted at PAE. I don't remember seeing any real 'maximum' number announced, but if 24 is correct, then I guess we're done. I still wonder if that's a "legal", official, or just informal maximum because I don't see how other cx will react to being shut out of the airport? Also, it's curious that WN waited 'til now to announce.

There also seems to be confusion as to exactly what facilities are going to exist to handle commercial flights. Two gates seems to be certain but 12 flights/day/gate seems like a stretch, so will there be overflow, hardstands, unassigned empty tarmac space provided? We seem to be pretty sure that AS and UA will be using small jets exclusively at PAE, to begin with anyway, but we know that WN will not be!

I guess we have to wait and see what is actually built and will open this summer in Everett.

I would think perhaps the 5 WN destinations might be OAK, LAS, and DEN for sure, with LAX, SAN and PHX also on the possibilities list. I expect WN would go after primarily connecting traffic rather than strictly on O&D and all of these cities would qualify for that.

bb

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:26 pm
by iamlucky13
wnflyguy wrote:
With new service now already maxed at 24 Daily flights between 3 airlines.
WN 5 , UA 6 and AS 13.
Who's going to get Gate control for RON aircraft?
Last time I saw a artist rendition looked like parking for only 4 aircraft. 2 Remote and 2 Jetways.

I'm guessing WN and UA will share one gate while AS operations will from the other.


If I remember right, Belfast City Airport (BHD) has 5 airlines operating from 2 gates, but with a sort of hybrid arrangement - the gates lead to two enclosed corridors that each serve 3-4 hard stands. That could work here, although AS does have enough flights it seems like sole use of one gate by them makes sense.

That said, here's a rendition I made months ago by overlaying a drawing from one of Propeller's permit applications and aerial photos. The first time I shared it, there were a few jokes made about me getting the colors of the aircraft wrong (they were parked at nearby Aviation Tech Services, and therefore already a convenient scale for me to paste in), but suddenly they fit right in.

It does look like there is room to designate hard stand positions, or even to extend the gate area, but that will expand capacity to a level that almost certainly will require a new environmental assessment.

Dimensions and layout labels are my estimations. Please let me know if the image doesn't show up, as it's currently hosted on Google Photos, which doesn't really seem intended for hot-linking like I've done.

Image

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:33 pm
by wedgetail737
iamlucky13 wrote:
I just looked in the environmental assessment again.

It covers 23 flights per day. It's analysis used a mix of MD-83 and CRJ-700 aircraft. Presumably if challenged, the airlines can present an analysis demonstrating equal to or better day-night noise level averages with 24 737's and E175's compared to 23 MD-83's and CRJ-700's.

At some point, there won't be any choice but an expanded environmental assessment, which also covers issues like traffic congestion.

I'm also a bit concerned this might be too much too quickly for passengers to shift their flying habits. It would be unfortunate if traffic ramps up slowly enough one of the airlines bails, and the airport is left with only two competitors using up all the slots.


It could be...but only for maybe some "smaller" destinations like SJC or SNA. However, the coverage of this evolving story is really known up here in the PNW and lots (not all) are excited about the prospects. In other words, it's well-advertised up here!

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:35 pm
by SANFan
iamlucky13 wrote:
I just looked in the environmental assessment again.

It covers 23 flights per day. It's analysis used a mix of MD-83 and CRJ-700 aircraft. Presumably if challenged, the airlines can present an analysis demonstrating equal to or better day-night noise level averages with 24 737's and E175's compared to 23 MD-83's and CRJ-700's.

At some point, there won't be any choice but an expanded environmental assessment, which also covers issues like traffic congestion.

I'm also a bit concerned this might be too much too quickly for passengers to shift their flying habits. It would be unfortunate if traffic ramps up slowly enough one of the airlines bails, and the airport is left with only two competitors using up all the slots.


Thanks for that. So either we're already over the 23 daily flights -- does that mean someone drops a flight? -- or the cx involved can convince whomever needs to be convinced, that an additional flight is ok.

I'm thinking we sure better keep the NIMBYs in mind. Seems like they were somehow convinced that 23 commercial flights was ok so I would not expect it would go over too well if, before the terminal is even open, that maximum number of flights is already being threatened. And then just wait for DL or G4 to stand up and say, "What about us?"

And it's still unclear to me about evening and early morning curfews at PAE; I'm sure there are such things in place for the proposed commercial ops but the more restrictive they are, the more difficult it's going to be to squeeze in 23 or 24, or whatever number of flights during the available hours.

Seems like things are a bit sticky up in Everett but maybe everything is under total control.

bb

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:53 pm
by iamlucky13
SANFan wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
I just looked in the environmental assessment again.

It covers 23 flights per day. It's analysis used a mix of MD-83 and CRJ-700 aircraft. Presumably if challenged, the airlines can present an analysis demonstrating equal to or better day-night noise level averages with 24 737's and E175's compared to 23 MD-83's and CRJ-700's.

At some point, there won't be any choice but an expanded environmental assessment, which also covers issues like traffic congestion.

I'm also a bit concerned this might be too much too quickly for passengers to shift their flying habits. It would be unfortunate if traffic ramps up slowly enough one of the airlines bails, and the airport is left with only two competitors using up all the slots.


Thanks for that. So either we're already over the 23 daily flights -- does that mean someone drops a flight? -- or the cx involved can convince whomever needs to be convinced, that an additional flight is ok.

I'm thinking we sure better keep the NIMBYs in mind. Seems like they were somehow convinced that 23 commercial flights was ok so I would not expect it would go over too well if, before the terminal is even open, that maximum number of flights is already being threatened. And then just wait for DL or G4 to stand up and say, "What about us?"

And it's still unclear to me about evening and early morning curfews at PAE; I'm sure there are such things in place for the proposed commercial ops but the more restrictive they are, the more difficult it's going to be to squeeze in 23 or 24, or whatever number of flights during the available hours.

Seems like things are a bit sticky up in Everett but maybe everything is under total control.

bb


I assume they aren't announcing flights without doing due diligence, so almost certainly something has been worked out with regards to the differences between the environmental assessment and the planned flights.

The local opposition wasn't convinced it was ok. They were given their say in the permitting process, and mounted numerous legal challenges, but were not able to raise any substantive points challenging the conclusions of the environmental analysis or other steps in the process. The city of Mukilteo allocates $100,000 per year in their budget for legal costs to fight the airline service, which pays for a non-trivial amount of lawyer and technical consulting time to try to dig up problems. At this point, the existing plans seem to have withstood a serious effort at defeating them, and therefore are on a solid legal footing.

I assume DL and G4 are out of luck for the time being. I'm not sure it's a concern for them. DL probably wants to focus on SEA and feeding their larger network, while G4 generally avoids going head to head against the better recognized carriers.

Allegiant is probably concerned about how this affects their BLI traffic, but I don't think they fix that by challenging AS and WN (UA's routes don't overlap G4's) at PAE. Had nobody else stepped up to operate from PAE, I suspect G4 would have moved in. As is, they have ties to the company building and operating the terminal, so they're probably happy either way.

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:06 pm
by 32andBelow
Did anyone say if AS can split the gates? No reason that couldn't shoot 2 E175s off one position. I don't see why AS would want to RON E175s over in PAE where they would have no MX facilities. I could see them putting a 737 over there maybe to free up space at SEA.

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:18 pm
by SANFan
32andBelow wrote:
Did anyone say if AS can split the gates? No reason that couldn't shoot 2 E175s off one position. I don't see why AS would want to RON E175s over in PAE where they would have no MX facilities. I could see them putting a 737 over there maybe to free up space at SEA.

Well it appears that there only 2 jetways, one at each gate. I would think that would make it very difficult to have 2 a/c occupy 1 gate at the same time.

Why would AAG not RON any number of EMJs at PAE? Here at SAN, we have anywhere from 2 to 4 EMJs RON every night and we have no mx facilities, or any other facilities for them to be worked on. I'm sure this is true at many other stations as well.

There is no plan for scheduled flights between SEA and PAE but I suppose AS could ferry some empty a/c over to PAE for RON purposes. I doubt they would though.

bb

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:30 pm
by 32andBelow
SANFan wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Did anyone say if AS can split the gates? No reason that couldn't shoot 2 E175s off one position. I don't see why AS would want to RON E175s over in PAE where they would have no MX facilities. I could see them putting a 737 over there maybe to free up space at SEA.

Well it appears that there only 2 jetways, one at each gate. I would think that would make it very difficult to have 2 a/c occupy 1 gate at the same time.

Why would AAG not RON any number of EMJs at PAE? Here at SAN, we have anywhere from 2 to 4 EMJs RON every night and we have no mx facilities, or any other facilities for them to be worked on. I'm sure this is true at many other stations as well.

There is no plan for scheduled flights between SEA and PAE but I suppose AS could ferry some empty a/c over to PAE for RON purposes. I doubt they would though.

bb

Well they could route a 737 through somewhere like PDX in the future. They have jetbridge ramps that are used for multiple departures at other airports.

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:34 pm
by wnflyguy
Will PAE have a set curfew for airline operations?
Thanks Flyguy

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:41 pm
by adh214
How will these flights appear in the schedule, "xxx to Everett, WA" or "xxx to Seattle-Paine"?

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:53 pm
by iamlucky13
wnflyguy wrote:
Will PAE have a set curfew for airline operations?
Thanks Flyguy


They have a "voluntary" curfew. I don't know the details of how it is incentivized, but they have a policy in place that is supposed to limit flights before 7AM or after 9PM.

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:07 pm
by TWA302
iamlucky13 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Will PAE have a set curfew for airline operations?
Thanks Flyguy


They have a "voluntary" curfew. I don't know the details of how it is incentivized, but they have a policy in place that is supposed to limit flights before 7AM or after 9PM.


Article that talks about all this; http://www.heraldnet.com/news/everett-paine-field-passenger-flights-noise-traffic/

"Under the approval decision, Propeller must work with air carriers and Paine Field administrators on a program to minimize noise from departing aircraft. The company also must seek agreements with air carriers to limit flights between 10 p.m. to 6 a.m. to no more than four within 24-hour period. The restriction does not apply to schedule changes for weather or mechanical problems."

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:16 pm
by iamlucky13
TWA302 wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Will PAE have a set curfew for airline operations?
Thanks Flyguy


They have a "voluntary" curfew. I don't know the details of how it is incentivized, but they have a policy in place that is supposed to limit flights before 7AM or after 9PM.


Article that talks about all this; http://www.heraldnet.com/news/everett-paine-field-passenger-flights-noise-traffic/

"Under the approval decision, Propeller must work with air carriers and Paine Field administrators on a program to minimize noise from departing aircraft. The company also must seek agreements with air carriers to limit flights between 10 p.m. to 6 a.m. to no more than four within 24-hour period. The restriction does not apply to schedule changes for weather or mechanical problems."


Thanks for looking that up. That's an additional condition I remembered reading, but wasn't sure where to look for.

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:41 pm
by CobaltScar
This could of been the "long beach of the north" for B6!!!!!!! oh well

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:48 pm
by SANFan
iamlucky13 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
Will PAE have a set curfew for airline operations?
Thanks Flyguy


They have a "voluntary" curfew. I don't know the details of how it is incentivized, but they have a policy in place that is supposed to limit flights before 7AM or after 9PM.

Thx iam, I now remember seeing those numbers somewhere, sometime. And I also remember that it's 'voluntary', for what that's worth. But that does support my concern, assuming all 3 cx respect the curfew, that those 23/24 flights now have to fit inside a 14-hour window which makes things even more compressed. That rounds off to about 1.7 departures per hour (let's say 2), which is about 1 departure per hour per gate. That's doable unless a flight or two are delayed, or early. These days In aviation, that's always a possibility. It certainly can work but but that's a pretty constant pace of terminal utilization during the entire operational day.

As I think about the scheduling, it also means a large number of the airlines' departures are going to have to be at less desirable times. On the west coast, the early morning , early afternoon, and late evening -- for redeyes -- are the most popular flight departure times. Of course since most of this service that will be seen at PAE is down the coast and probably no further east than say DEN, the problem is not as great as at other airports. IOW, there will very probably have to be departures at 10-11am, 2-4pm, and 7-9 at night.

Another consideration that I wonder about is it's going to take very close coordination of the schedules of the 3 cx involved. Either the cx work amongst themselves (isn't that forbidden as, oh what's that word, oh yeah, collusion) or they will have to work thru someone at the airport who is going to have to establish priorities or compromises to figure out which airlines can depart at 7am and which have to wait until 8a to get their morning departure on its way.

Just some random thoughts.

bb

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:37 pm
by Cubsrule
SANFan wrote:
Another consideration that I wonder about is it's going to take very close coordination of the schedules of the 3 cx involved. Either the cx work amongst themselves (isn't that forbidden as, oh what's that word, oh yeah, collusion) or they will have to work thru someone at the airport who is going to have to establish priorities or compromises to figure out which airlines can depart at 7am and which have to wait until 8a to get their morning departure on its way.


Coordinating schedules for a shared gate isn't illegal.

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:07 pm
by QXAS
Looks like they’ll have 12 hours to get 11 flights out of one gate and 13 flights out of the other. WN can turn their jets in <45 min. UA will be running E175s which I assume can turn in 45 min. Same with AS. It’ll get really tight if anything larger than an A320/738 is used. Then we start to look at dwell times approaching one hour. To anyone more familiar with the WN, UA, and AS operations, what are the standard scheduled dwell times for each fleet type?

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:10 pm
by FATFlyer
SANFan wrote:
There is a post over on the WN thread stating that 24 is THE maximum flights permitted at PAE. I don't remember seeing any real 'maximum' number announced, but if 24 is correct, then I guess we're done. I still wonder if that's a "legal", official, or just informal maximum because I don't see how other cx will react to being shut out of the airport? Also, it's curious that WN waited 'til now to announce.


The Everett Herald has these two quotes about the total number of flights.
Kelly noted that the new terminal will have space for a limited number of flights. “There are only five daily departures left,” Kelly said. “If we don’t move on this, we may lose the opportunity.”

“We’re full,” agreed Propeller Airports CEO Brett Smith, whose company has moved its headquarters from New York to Everett. “That’s it, there are no more airline announcements. Any other airline that comes will be told there’s no more room.” Other airlines were interested in flying out of Paine Field, too, Smith said. He was surprised by the amount of interest. “It’s akin to trying to get into a small restaurant,” Smith said of the terminal’s two gates. “There are only so many tables. The airlines realized if they weren’t getting in now they weren’t getting in at all.”

http://www.heraldnet.com/business/southwest-announces-it-will-be-third-airline-to-fly-from-paine-field/

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:12 pm
by FATFlyer
adh214 wrote:
How will these flights appear in the schedule, "xxx to Everett, WA" or "xxx to Seattle-Paine"?

From an article published two weeks ago:

Smith is cognizant that this terminal will serve thousands of Snohomish County travelers.

“Seattle is not going to be listed in our terminal. However, with that said, when you go to Expedia or go directly to Alaska (on the web), it will give you an option for all local airports,” Smith said.

Inside the terminal, all signage will be about Everett.

“This is Everett’s airport and that’s the end of it,” Smith said.
http://www.heraldnet.com/business/early-boarding-pass-everetts-rising-passenger-terminal/

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:50 pm
by FSDan
QXAS wrote:
Looks like they’ll have 12 hours to get 11 flights out of one gate and 13 flights out of the other. WN can turn their jets in <45 min. UA will be running E175s which I assume can turn in 45 min. Same with AS. It’ll get really tight if anything larger than an A320/738 is used. Then we start to look at dwell times approaching one hour. To anyone more familiar with the WN, UA, and AS operations, what are the standard scheduled dwell times for each fleet type?


I think most airlines schedule E75s to turn in 30-35 minutes at the fastest. I know I've seen 30 minute turns in AA's schedules, and I don't remember if DL does 30 or 35. UA seems to schedule longer turn times in general, so I wouldn't be surprised to see 35-40. Not sure about AS without doing some digging.

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:13 pm
by wedgetail737
FSDan wrote:
QXAS wrote:
Looks like they’ll have 12 hours to get 11 flights out of one gate and 13 flights out of the other. WN can turn their jets in <45 min. UA will be running E175s which I assume can turn in 45 min. Same with AS. It’ll get really tight if anything larger than an A320/738 is used. Then we start to look at dwell times approaching one hour. To anyone more familiar with the WN, UA, and AS operations, what are the standard scheduled dwell times for each fleet type?


I think most airlines schedule E75s to turn in 30-35 minutes at the fastest. I know I've seen 30 minute turns in AA's schedules, and I don't remember if DL does 30 or 35. UA seems to schedule longer turn times in general, so I wouldn't be surprised to see 35-40. Not sure about AS without doing some digging.


I remember WN used to turn their airplanes in 15 to 20 minutes. I guess they don't do that now. I would imagine AS will turn their EMJ's in 30 to 40 minutes. But maybe that'll change between now and then because of WN's announcement.

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:42 pm
by frmrCapCadet
I expect at least 6 gates to be planned within the next few years. Nighttime noise limits are appropriate.

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:00 am
by QXAS
wedgetail737 wrote:
FSDan wrote:
QXAS wrote:
Looks like they’ll have 12 hours to get 11 flights out of one gate and 13 flights out of the other. WN can turn their jets in <45 min. UA will be running E175s which I assume can turn in 45 min. Same with AS. It’ll get really tight if anything larger than an A320/738 is used. Then we start to look at dwell times approaching one hour. To anyone more familiar with the WN, UA, and AS operations, what are the standard scheduled dwell times for each fleet type?


I think most airlines schedule E75s to turn in 30-35 minutes at the fastest. I know I've seen 30 minute turns in AA's schedules, and I don't remember if DL does 30 or 35. UA seems to schedule longer turn times in general, so I wouldn't be surprised to see 35-40. Not sure about AS without doing some digging.


I remember WN used to turn their airplanes in 15 to 20 minutes. I guess they don't do that now. I would imagine AS will turn their EMJ's in 30 to 40 minutes. But maybe that'll change between now and then because of WN's announcement.
I was involved in a 20 minute 735 turn at RNO many years back. A45 in a middle seat. Those quick turns were always fun. So with a schedule of E75s and then the 5 WN 73Gs at the start. The schedule will have about 20 minutes of slack between each flight. Not much room for error especially when one of the destinations is SFO.

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:11 am
by airzona11
I think this service will be successful for all 3 carriers. Lots of easy O/D to capture.

wedgetail737 wrote:
FSDan wrote:
QXAS wrote:
Looks like they’ll have 12 hours to get 11 flights out of one gate and 13 flights out of the other. WN can turn their jets in <45 min. UA will be running E175s which I assume can turn in 45 min. Same with AS. It’ll get really tight if anything larger than an A320/738 is used. Then we start to look at dwell times approaching one hour. To anyone more familiar with the WN, UA, and AS operations, what are the standard scheduled dwell times for each fleet type?


I think most airlines schedule E75s to turn in 30-35 minutes at the fastest. I know I've seen 30 minute turns in AA's schedules, and I don't remember if DL does 30 or 35. UA seems to schedule longer turn times in general, so I wouldn't be surprised to see 35-40. Not sure about AS without doing some digging.


I remember WN used to turn their airplanes in 15 to 20 minutes. I guess they don't do that now. I would imagine AS will turn their EMJ's in 30 to 40 minutes. But maybe that'll change between now and then because of WN's announcement.


With 137 seat 733/737s being the largest plane and lower load factors, it was always impressive to watch. I remember getting the $29 fares too.

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:21 am
by BreezyIAH
So where will they fly? OAK, LAS, DEN?

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:41 am
by spiah
Really excited about this. This is exactly what Everett needs, and it's been a long time coming. Looking forward to seeing where WN flies.

Can't help but wonder where they'll fly... Dallas? Bay area is a definite possibility.

Re: PAE service thread

Posted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:15 am
by wedgetail737
frmrCapCadet wrote:
I expect at least 6 gates to be planned within the next few years. Nighttime noise limits are appropriate.


The land area where the terminal is located doesn't have the space for 6 gates...maybe 1 or 2 max. Also, PAE is going to be LGB with a very limited number of flights. But I guess anything is possible.