FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

*4O ORD-GDL MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0

7N MIA-SDQ MAR 1.0>0.9 APR 1.0>0.9 MAY 1.0>0.8 JUN 1.0>0.9 JUL 1.0>0.9 AUG 1.0>0.8 SEP 1.0>0.9 OCT 1.0>0.8

9X AOO-BWI MAY 0.4>1.6 JUN 0>1.4 JUL 0>1.4 AUG 0>1.5 SEP 0>1.3
9X BFD-PIT MAY 0.6>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>2
9X BNA-MEM MAR 0.1>1.1 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
9X BWI-HGR MAY 0.5>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>2
9X BWI-LNS MAY 0.4>1.6 JUN 0>1.4 JUL 0>1.4 AUG 0>1.5 SEP 0>1.3
9X BWI-MGW MAY 0.5>1.7 JUN 0>1.4 JUL 0>1.4 AUG 0>1.5 SEP 0>1.3
9X DFW-HRO JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7
9X DSI-MEM JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7 SEP 0>0.7
9X FKL-PIT MAY 0.5>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>2
9X HGR-PIT JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7
9X HRO-MEM JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7
9X LNS-PIT MAY 0.5>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>2
9X MGW-PIT MAR 3>4 APR 3>4 MAY 0.5>4 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3

AA CLT-AUA JUN 1.6>3 JUL 1.6>3 AUG 1.3>1.7
Montego gaining from the Hurricane damaged islands
*AA CLT-MBJ JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 3>4
AA CLT-SJU AUG 2>1.8
AA JFK-PAP JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.6
AA LAX-MBJ JUN 0.3>0.2 JUL 0.3>0.1
AA MCI-CUN JUL 0.3>0.1

AC FLL-YUL SEP 1.7>1.1
AC PBI-YYZ MAR 2>3

AG MIA-AUA MAR 2>1.0 APR 2>1.0 MAY 2>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0

AR MIA-EZE MAY 2>1.8

This appears to be an error as I still see flights on their website. But who knows. It's very odd only one route disappeared.
**AS DAL-SFO SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0
AS LAX-LTO MAY 0.5>0.6 JUN 0.3>0.6 JUL 0.3>0.6 AUG 0.3>0.5

*AV JFK-CTG APR 0.4>0 MAY 0.4>0

B6 BOS-MBJ APR 0.1>0.3
B6 BOS-PUJ APR 0.7>0.9
B6 BOS-SEA APR 1.9>3
B6 BOS-SJU APR 2>3
B6 JFK-SJU APR 4>5
B6 MCO-SJU APR 4>5

CM ORD-PTY OCT 3>2

I would have thought PVD-DUB in the Summer would be one of the strongest routes.
*D8 PVD-DUB JUN 1.0>0.7 JUL 1.0>0.7 AUG 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 0.8>0.6

DL ANC-MSP OCT 1.8>1.0
DL ATL-BTR SEP 6>7
DL ATL-EWR SEP 10>11
DL ATL-PNS SEP 7>8
DL ATL-RDU SEP 11>12 OCT 12>13
DL ATL-SDF MAR 8>7
DL ATL-YUL SEP 4>5
DL ATL-YVR APR 0.4>0.3
B6 must be happy
*DL BOS-FLL MAY 1.9>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2.0>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
*DL BOS-PBI MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0.1 JUL 1.0>0.1 AUG 1.0>0.1 SEP 0.9>0.2 OCT 1.0>0.1
DL DTW-IMT MAY 0.9>0.5
DL GEG-MSP SEP 2>3
DL IMT-MSP MAY 1.0>0.6
DL JAX-MSP APR 0.8>0.5
DL JFK-NAS APR 1.0>1.1 MAY 1.0>1.1 JUN 1.0>1.2 JUL 1.0>1.1 AUG 1.0>1.1
DL JFK-PWM SEP 1.0>1.7
DL LAS-SAN SEP 3>4
DL LAX-ATL SEP 11>12
DL LAX-RDU SEP 1.0>2
DL LAX-SJC AUG 7>6
DL LGA-BOS APR 14>13
DL LGA-MCO SEP 6>5
DL MIA-LAX APR 0.9>0.5 SEP 0.7>0.2
DL MIA-LGA SEP 5>4
DL MSP-RDU MAY 3>4
DL MSP-TUL AUG 1.9>1.3
DL SEA-ANC OCT 5>3
DL SEA-ATL JUN 9>8
*DL SEA-BOS JUN 1.8>3 JUL 1.8>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 1.5>3 OCT 1.5>3
DL SEA-BZN JUN 0.1>0.0
DL SEA-DTW OCT 6>5
DL SEA-LAS OCT 4>5
DL SEA-SJC JUN 6>5
Reverses last week
*DL SLC-COD APR 0.1>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0.2>1.2 JUL 0.3>1.3 AUG 0.3>1.3
*DL SLC-CPR APR 1.1>2 MAY 0.9>1.9 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2
DL SLC-MCI JUL 1.8>3 AUG 2>3 OCT 2>3
*DL SLC-PIT JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>0.9 OCT 0>1.0

*EK EWR-DXB JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
2 RTs is surprisingly little
*EK JFK-DXB JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2

F9 DEN-PHL MAR 1.0>0.7
F9 DEN-SJC MAR 1.0>0.7
F9 DEN-STL MAR 1.0>0.7
F9 ISP-MSY MAR 0.6>0.1
*F9 MCO-CUN MAR 0.7>0 APR 0.9>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 0.4>0
F9 MSY-PVD MAR 0.4>0.1
F9 PBI-PHL MAR 0.4>0.3

FI eliminates morning KEF bank
FI BOS-KEF AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3
FI IAD-KEF JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2
FI JFK-KEF JUN 1.4>1.7 JUL 1.5>1.7 AUG 3>1.7
FI ORD-KEF MAY 1.2>1.4 JUN 1.4>1.7 JUL 1.4>1.7 AUG 1.4>1.7
FI SEA-KEF AUG 3>2 SEP 3>1.9

G4 CVG-MSY MAR 0.4>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 IND-MSY MAR 0.4>0.3
G4 MSY-RDU MAR 0.4>0.3 APR 0.4>0.3
G4 PGD-PSM MAY 0.4>0.3

JL HNL-KIX OCT 1.9>2

*LA IAD-LIM MAR 0.4>0 APR 0.5>0 MAY 0.4>0 JUN 0.4>0 JUL 0.5>0 AUG 0.4>0 SEP 0.4>0 OCT 0.5>0

*LJ HNL-ICN MAR 0.7>0.1 APR 0.7>0 MAY 0.7>0 JUN 0.7>0 JUL 0.7>0.3 SEP 0.7>0.4 OCT 0.7>0.5

LY JFK-TLV APR 1.7>1.6

MW KOA-OGG MAR 15>13 APR 15>14 MAY 14>13

PR LAX-MNL SEP 1.7>1.6 OCT 1.7>1.6

QF DFW-SYD MAY 1.0>0.9 AUG 1.0>0.9
QF LAX-MEL MAY 1.7>1.5

RJ DTW-YUL SEP 0.2>0.1

S4 BOS-PDL JUL 1.3>1.5 AUG 1.3>1.6 SEP 1.3>1.5 OCT 0.8>0.9
S4 BOS-TER JUN 0.6>0.3 JUL 0.6>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.3>0.1
S4 PVD-PDL JUN 0.3>0.1 JUL 0.3>0.1 AUG 0.3>0.2 SEP 0.3>0.1

SV LAX-JED JUN 0.4>0.6 JUL 0.4>0.7 AUG 0.4>0.7

UA DEN-BIL JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
UA DEN-CID JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2
UA DEN-FAR JUN 4>3
UA DEN-SGU MAY 3>2 JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2
UA DEN-TUL JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5
UA IAH-ATL MAR 7>6
*UA IAH-BDL MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
UA IAH-DTW MAR 5>3
UA IAH-MSP MAR 5>4
UA IAH-PVR SEP 1.4>1.2
UA LAX-ABQ JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2
UA LAX-EWR JUL 13>12
That's surprising
*UA LAX-TUS JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
UA LAX-YVR JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2
UA ORD-MSN MAY 6>7
UA ORD-RIC MAY 4>5
UA SFO-BOS APR 7>6 MAY 7>6
UA SFO-CVG MAY 1.0>0.7
UA SFO-PHL MAR 3>1.5
UA SFO-STS MAR 3>2

VS MCO-LGW SEP 1.3>1.4

WS FLL-YUL OCT 0.2>0.0
WS LAS-YXE OCT 0.3>0.2
WS PSP-YVR OCT 0.7>0.5
WS SAN-YVR MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3
WS TPA-YYZ MAY 0.8>0.5 AUG 0.6>0.4

Must be doing well
WW STL-KEF JUN 0.6>0.7 JUL 0.6>0.7 AUG 0.5>0.7 SEP 0.6>0.7

ZK DEN-TEX MAR 1.6>1.2 APR 1.4>1.0 MAY 1.3>0.9 JUN 1.3>0.8 JUL 1.3>0.8 AUG 1.3>0.9 SEP 1.3>0.8 OCT 1.2>0.8

No more UA Lax-Tus?..Thats weird, but maybe PHX is increasing?

Phew! I was getting worried Enilria! My Sunday isn't complete until I read this thread!

Thank you, as always, for your efforts.

Now to read it...

bb

enilria wrote:

B6 must be happy
*DL BOS-FLL MAY 1.9>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2.0>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
*DL BOS-PBI MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0.1 JUL 1.0>0.1 AUG 1.0>0.1 SEP 0.9>0.2 OCT 1.0>0.1

We've had posts on here recently that indicated B6 was creaming DL in both fares and loads from BOS-Florida. Hard to verify of course but this indicates the posts were probably spot-on.

SANFan wrote:

Phew! I was getting worried Enilria! My Sunday isn't complete until I read this thread!

me too ... and THANK YOU for doing this every week!

WS SAN-YVR MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3

Interesting in that AC is increasing SAN-YVR to triple-daily service this summer (reported in a previous OAG thread.) So apparently it's not the market but something to do with WS? In fact, I believe it was recently reported that WS is reducing SAN-YYC this summer as well.... I'll be keeping an eye on this carrier in SAN.

I agree that the removal of SFO-DAL service completely by AS in the fall is very strange. My guess is also: filing error and it will be back next week.

bb

enilria wrote:

UA SFO-PHL MAR 3>1.5

I really liked UA's 3 options, especially in the absence of a much needed PHL-LAX flight.

I was already having withdrawals from a Sunday morning without the new OAG thread. My fix is now complete.

Thanks Enlira!

FLYKTPA wrote:

SANFan wrote:

WS SAN-YVR MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3

Interesting in that AC is increasing SAN-YVR to triple-daily service this summer (reported in a previous OAG thread.) So apparently it's not the market but something to do with WS? In fact, I believe it was recently reported that WS is reducing SAN-YYC this summer as well.... I'll be keeping an eye on this carrier in SAN.

3.0 would be triple daily service. 0.3 is only a few times a week.

I was just pointing out that Air Canada is increasing SAN-YVR service at the same time as WS is decreasing frequency from .4 to .3.

(Hey FLYK', any word on how the brand new TPA-SAN service on WN is looking so far? Advance numbers, etc.?)

bb

B6 MCO-SJU APR 4>5
DL LGA-MCO SEP 6>5
*F9 MCO-CUN MAR 0.7>0 APR 0.9>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 0.4>0
VS MCO-LGW SEP 1.3>1.4

I assume the reason for the increase in SJU service is because of Hurricane displacement to the Orlando Area. What B6 probably sees is early demand of what the region will need to get people to go back to PR to see family. I expect that most of the people displaced by the Hurricane will stay here for years to come.

DL's service comes with a decrease in demand, kids go back to school and there isn't a total need since O&D likely takes a small dip. Plus, from what I've been hearing, MCO-NYC on DL will be all A321 by years end while maintaining all 757 on ATL, DTW, MSP, and LAX. VS adding additional LGW is natural.

I'm kind of bummed about F9 pulling the plug on CUN, but there wasn't really a ton of O&D for a market like that. While we do travel to CUN from the Orlando Area, it's just not as much as those from the north.

SANFan wrote:

Phew! I was getting worried Enilria! My Sunday isn't complete until I read this thread!

Thank you, as always, for your efforts.

Now to read it...

bb

Same here. Thanks enilria!

yellowtail wrote:

I was already having withdrawals from a Sunday morning without the new OAG thread. My fix is now complete.

Thanks Enlira!

Agreed. Was refreshing constantly this morning. Thanks for putting this together every week!

*UA IAH-BDL MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

I guess with BDL getting UA to resume SFO since it did so well this past year that IAH couldn't stay.

Oh well.

Houston has. and never will, be a sustainable route out of Hartford, CT.

IPFreely wrote:

enilria wrote:

B6 must be happy
*DL BOS-FLL MAY 1.9>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2.0>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
*DL BOS-PBI MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0.1 JUL 1.0>0.1 AUG 1.0>0.1 SEP 0.9>0.2 OCT 1.0>0.1

We've had posts on here recently that indicated B6 was creaming DL in both fares and loads from BOS-Florida. Hard to verify of course but this indicates the posts were probably spot-on.

On the other hand, DL is also upgauging some Florida flights. BOS-TPA is now double daily 738, up from 319s. I appreciate that the 738 may have better economics for a higher volume, lower yield route, but then again that's a big capacity jump for a route that isn't performing well, no?

SANFan wrote:

WS SAN-YVR MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3

Interesting in that AC is increasing SAN-YVR to triple-daily service this summer (reported in a previous OAG thread.) So apparently it's not the market but something to do with WS? In fact, I believe it was recently reported that WS is reducing SAN-YYC this summer as well.... I'll be keeping an eye on this carrier in SAN.

I agree that the removal of SFO-DAL service completely by AS in the fall is very strange. My guess is also: filing error and it will be back next week.

bb

When the merger is complete, I still think AS needs to consolidate at one airport, DFW. No one is ever going to have much success against WN with only two gates at DAL.

IPFreely wrote:

enilria wrote:

B6 must be happy
*DL BOS-FLL MAY 1.9>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2.0>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
*DL BOS-PBI MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0.1 JUL 1.0>0.1 AUG 1.0>0.1 SEP 0.9>0.2 OCT 1.0>0.1

We've had posts on here recently that indicated B6 was creaming DL in both fares and loads from BOS-Florida. Hard to verify of course but this indicates the posts were probably spot-on.

The BOS-PBI flight was axed in favor of BOS-SEA and BOS-FLL was upgauged.

UA SFO-STS MAR 3>2

I wouldn't be surprised to hear DEN-STS as replacement. It's been the #1 target for the airport for awhile now.

Whew! I was getting worried there. Thanks as usual for your hard work.

enilria wrote:

\AA JFK-PAP JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.6

not all reductions out of JFK for AA!

This appears to be an error as I still see flights on their website. But who knows. It's very odd only one route disappeared.
**AS DAL-SFO SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0
AS LAX-LTO MAY 0.5>0.6 JUN 0.3>0.6 JUL 0.3>0.6 AUG 0.3>0.5

agreed filing error

B6 BOS-SEA APR 1.9>3
*DL SEA-BOS JUN 1.8>3 JUL 1.8>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 1.5>3 OCT 1.5>3

This is super interesting.
BOS-SEA getting a lot of love. One of the highest yielding transcon routes for AS under attack.
It will be 3 daily each from B6/DL/AS in the summer time. From Q3 fare data
DL 289
AS 320
B6 277
And Q2
DL 298
AS 298
B6 261
Super interesting FC pricing strategy by AS here. Pricing twice as much as DL in some cases and much higher than mint.

If I was DL, I'd drop the entire BOS-SFO experiment and move D1 here to strengthen a hub-hub route

B6 BOS-SJU APR 2>3
B6 JFK-SJU APR 4>5
B6 MCO-SJU APR 4>5

a lot of increases on SJU recently by B6. Good sign of SJU rebounding.

DL MIA-LAX APR 0.9>0.5 SEP 0.7>0.2

shorter summer run. Again, not a surprise.

UA SFO-BOS APR 7>6 MAY 7>6

too much capacity on this route.

UA SFO-STS MAR 3>2

Is this route already becoming a loser?

UA SFO-STS MAR 3>2

Is this route already becoming a loser?

I see AS flying 2x daily SFO-DAL in both Sept and Oct...it must be an error.

SCHATC422 wrote:

*UA IAH-BDL MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

I guess with BDL getting UA to resume SFO since it did so well this past year that IAH couldn't stay.

Oh well.

Houston has. and never will, be a sustainable route out of Hartford, CT.

That and most of the passengers were connecting to points west, which can be done quicker via Chicago or San Fran. Not much local traffic on a small plane flown once daily...rather pointless to keep.

hiflyeras wrote:

I see AS flying 2x daily SFO-DAL in both Sept and Oct...it must be an error.

3x/day during the summer. AS also goes 2x/day PDX-DAL starting 3 June.

loisencroach wrote:

UA SFO-STS MAR 3>2

I wouldn't be surprised to hear DEN-STS as replacement. It's been the #1 target for the airport for awhile now.

i read the issue was CRJ performance off the 6000 ft runway?

flymco753 wrote:

B6 MCO-SJU APR 4>5
DL LGA-MCO SEP 6>5
*F9 MCO-CUN MAR 0.7>0 APR 0.9>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 0.4>0
VS MCO-LGW SEP 1.3>1.4

I assume the reason for the increase in SJU service is because of Hurricane displacement to the Orlando Area. What B6 probably sees is early demand of what the region will need to get people to go back to PR to see family. I expect that most of the people displaced by the Hurricane will stay here for years to come.

Last week, an article in the Wall Street Journal said an Orlando area school district has started reaching out to displaced teachers from Puerto Rico with a desk inside MCO where they can learn about job opportunities within minutes after they arrive.

I think once professionals like teachers and nurses get established in new careers in places like Orlando, Miami, and New York City, they will be reluctant to move back to Puerto Rico. Sadly, it's a real loss for the island that it is losing some of its most talented residents.

hiflyeras wrote:

I see AS flying 2x daily SFO-DAL in both Sept and Oct...it must be an error.

I see 3X a day in Sept & Oct on the AS.com skeds....

jbpdx wrote:

AS goes 2x/day PDX-DAL starting 3 June.

SAN also gets double daily service to DAL starting in June. (At the same time as WN is up to 4x daily SAN-DAL -- the battle continues!)

B6 BOS-SEA APR 1.9>3
*DL SEA-BOS JUN 1.8>3 JUL 1.8>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 1.5>3 OCT 1.5>3

Similar to SEA, B6 is starting a 3rd daily flight between SAN and BOS in February but of course here, the only competition is AS (with a single flight). I had hoped that AS was ready to go daily-double in the market in 2018 but it looks like another lost opportunity here for Chester.

bb

flymco753 wrote:

*F9 MCO-CUN MAR 0.7>0 APR 0.9>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 0.4>0

I'm kind of bummed about F9 pulling the plug on CUN, but there wasn't really a ton of O&D for a market like that. While we do travel to CUN from the Orlando Area, it's just not as much as those from the north.

F931 MCO 23:50 - CUN 02:00
F930 CUN 03:50 - MCO 05:45

I can see why they pulled out with flight times like these... That's just brutal. Looks like they pulled flights starting Feb 1st as they are no longer bookable on Frontier's site. That's an awfully short time to pull flights considering it was still bookable last week at $49 one way on Feb 16th. I was looking for a cheap alternative for CUN-YYZ and came across these awful flight times. Load factors must have been really terrible for them to cancel flights with less than 2 weeks notice.

777Mech wrote:

IPFreely wrote:

enilria wrote:

B6 must be happy
*DL BOS-FLL MAY 1.9>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2.0>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
*DL BOS-PBI MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0.1 JUL 1.0>0.1 AUG 1.0>0.1 SEP 0.9>0.2 OCT 1.0>0.1

We've had posts on here recently that indicated B6 was creaming DL in both fares and loads from BOS-Florida. Hard to verify of course but this indicates the posts were probably spot-on.

The BOS-PBI flight was axed in favor of BOS-SEA and BOS-FLL was upgauged.

May to Oct is also off peak for Boston-South Florida and there's not a focus city in FLL for DL to feed with BOS flights.

AAvgeek744 wrote:

SANFan wrote:

WS SAN-YVR MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3

Interesting in that AC is increasing SAN-YVR to triple-daily service this summer (reported in a previous OAG thread.) So apparently it's not the market but something to do with WS? In fact, I believe it was recently reported that WS is reducing SAN-YYC this summer as well.... I'll be keeping an eye on this carrier in SAN.

I agree that the removal of SFO-DAL service completely by AS in the fall is very strange. My guess is also: filing error and it will be back next week.

bb

When the merger is complete, I still think AS needs to consolidate at one airport, DFW. No one is ever going to have much success against WN with only two gates at DAL.

Actually I believe the one airline that could make two gates work at DAL is DL. No Texas hub anymore and flights to DL's hubs, especially ATL/MSP/DTW/SLC and SEA would do fine. Maybe even LGA if they shuffle some slots around.

Thanks enilria!!

tphuang wrote:

Whew! I was getting worried there. Thanks as usual for your hard work.

enilria wrote:

\AA JFK-PAP JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.6

not all reductions out of JFK for AA!

This appears to be an error as I still see flights on their website. But who knows. It's very odd only one route disappeared.
**AS DAL-SFO SEP 3>0 OCT 3>0
AS LAX-LTO MAY 0.5>0.6 JUN 0.3>0.6 JUL 0.3>0.6 AUG 0.3>0.5

agreed filing error

B6 BOS-SEA APR 1.9>3
*DL SEA-BOS JUN 1.8>3 JUL 1.8>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 1.5>3 OCT 1.5>3

This is super interesting.
BOS-SEA getting a lot of love. One of the highest yielding transcon routes for AS under attack.
It will be 3 daily each from B6/DL/AS in the summer time. From Q3 fare data
DL 289
AS 320
B6 277
And Q2
DL 298
AS 298
B6 261
Super interesting FC pricing strategy by AS here. Pricing twice as much as DL in some cases and much higher than mint.

If I was DL, I'd drop the entire BOS-SFO experiment and move D1 here to strengthen a hub-hub route

B6 BOS-SJU APR 2>3
B6 JFK-SJU APR 4>5
B6 MCO-SJU APR 4>5

a lot of increases on SJU recently by B6. Good sign of SJU rebounding.

DL MIA-LAX APR 0.9>0.5 SEP 0.7>0.2

shorter summer run. Again, not a surprise.

UA SFO-BOS APR 7>6 MAY 7>6

too much capacity on this route.

BOS-SEA is becoming quite competitive, with Mint/AS/DL all now 3x. Should be interesting to see how this plays out. Of course, if HQ2 ends at Boston, we'll see capacity go up even more.

BOS-SFO indeed has way too much capacity, so it's good to see UA pull back a bit. Are they still sending 777's on this route?

SANFan wrote:

hiflyeras wrote:

I see AS flying 2x daily SFO-DAL in both Sept and Oct...it must be an error.

I see 3X a day in Sept & Oct on the AS.com skeds....

jbpdx wrote:

AS goes 2x/day PDX-DAL starting 3 June.

SAN also gets double daily service to DAL starting in June. (At the same time as WN is up to 4x daily SAN-DAL -- the battle continues!)

B6 BOS-SEA APR 1.9>3
*DL SEA-BOS JUN 1.8>3 JUL 1.8>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 1.5>3 OCT 1.5>3

Similar to SEA, B6 is starting a 3rd daily flight between SAN and BOS in February but of course here, the only competition is AS (with a single flight). I had hoped that AS was ready to go daily-double in the market in 2018 but it looks like another lost opportunity here for Chester.

bb

Really quite surprising that B6 is going up to 3x on BOS-SAN while AS stays at 1. I could see DL making a play for this market as well (although higher fuel prices may make nonhub transcon flying less attractive).

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Really quite surprising that B6 is going up to 3x on BOS-SAN while AS stays at 1. I could see DL making a play for this market as well (although higher fuel prices may make nonhub transcon flying less attractive).

This is about B6 driving DL off the route; they don't want them growing BOS side by side with them the way they've tried to grow SEA side by side with AS.

And AS won't leave the market, soooo...

adamh8297 wrote:

777Mech wrote:

IPFreely wrote:

We've had posts on here recently that indicated B6 was creaming DL in both fares and loads from BOS-Florida. Hard to verify of course but this indicates the posts were probably spot-on.

The BOS-PBI flight was axed in favor of BOS-SEA and BOS-FLL was upgauged.

May to Oct is also off peak for Boston-South Florida and there's not a focus city in FLL for DL to feed with BOS flights.

Oct is definitely off peak for Florida, but don't underestimate how big DL is at FL point of sale. They have long been the dominant legacy carrier at MCO/FLL/TPA, although the US-AA merger disrupted that somewhat. Florida stations remain bases for DL cabin crew and comfortably among their top 20 ref she contributors. It ain't all about BOS POS.

This isn't great news for DL BOS-FL, but it isn't doom and gloom either. BOS-TPA has been upgaued from 2x daily 319s to 738s, for example.

I think that the EK A380 being pulled from JFK is going to show up at BOS. Just a hunch.

axiom wrote:

adamh8297 wrote:

777Mech wrote:

The BOS-PBI flight was axed in favor of BOS-SEA and BOS-FLL was upgauged.

May to Oct is also off peak for Boston-South Florida and there's not a focus city in FLL for DL to feed with BOS flights.

Oct is definitely off peak for Florida, but don't underestimate how big DL is at FL point of sale. They have long been the dominant legacy carrier at MCO/FLL/TPA, although the US-AA merger disrupted that somewhat. Florida stations remain bases for DL cabin crew and comfortably among their top 20 ref she contributors. It ain't all about BOS POS.

This isn't great news for DL BOS-FL, but it isn't doom and gloom either. BOS-TPA has been upgaued from 2x daily 319s to 738s, for example.

The BOS-PBI flight was axed in favor of BOS-SEA and BOS-FLL was upgauged.

Is it really this hard to believe that Delta is doing badly on 2 routes where B6 is the largest carrier on both end?

I actually posted that DL is loosing money on JFK-FLL/MCO/SJU. Which again shouldn't surprise anyone, since these are routes where B6 is large on both ends. fyi, AA exited JFK-SJU last year and they actually had higher fare than DL on that route.

2 flights got cancelled and 1 got added. DL is not gate constrained at BOS. They can always add flight at less busy hours if they wanted to.

As for BOS-TPA up gauging, Q3 fare show DL at 175 and B6 at 186. Clearly B6 on A320 vs DL on A319 is going to have drastically lower CASM (most likely higher than the 25% system wide advantage). If DL can fill the plane (which I presume they can based on the up gauging), that at least lowers the cost a little bit. By the way, most of BOS-Florida routes look like this.

SANFan wrote:

Similar to SEA, B6 is starting a 3rd daily flight between SAN and BOS in February but of course here, the only competition is AS (with a single flight). I had hoped that AS was ready to go daily-double in the market in 2018 but it looks like another lost opportunity here for Chester.

Totally agreed. BOS-SAN is AS highest yielding transcon route outside of SEA/PDX. Now with 3 daily mint + AS's horrible gate situation at BOS, they are going to have huge problems. But we will find out in a few months.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks enilria!!

BOS-SEA is becoming quite competitive, with Mint/AS/DL all now 3x. Should be interesting to see how this plays out. Of course, if HQ2 ends at Boston, we'll see capacity go up even more.

BOS-SFO indeed has way too much capacity, so it's good to see UA pull back a bit. Are they still sending 777's on this route?

Really quite surprising that B6 is going up to 3x on BOS-SAN while AS stays at 1. I could see DL making a play for this market as well (although higher fuel prices may make nonhub transcon flying less attractive).

Those also happen to be the 2 routes that mint entrance will have the greatest impact on AS.

I can't see DL entering it as long as AS is in there. On the other hand, BOS-SEA fares for DL will probably drop from around $290 to under $250, which will be a huge problem for them. Outside of MCO-LAX, not too many DL transcon routes averaging that kind of low fares.

deltacto wrote:

me too ... and THANK YOU for doing this every week!

SANFan wrote:

Phew! I was getting worried Enilria! My Sunday isn't complete until I read this thread!

Thank you, as always, for your efforts.

Now to read it...

bb

tphuang wrote:

Whew! I was getting worried there. Thanks as usual for your hard work.

There were delays from the data source. It happens every so often. Glad you hung around!

yellowtail wrote:

I was already having withdrawals from a Sunday morning without the new OAG thread. My fix is now complete.

Thanks Enlira!

11725Flyer wrote:

Same here. Thanks enilria!

sbaflyer wrote:

Agreed. Was refreshing constantly this morning. Thanks for putting this together every week!

tphuang wrote:

This is super interesting.
BOS-SEA getting a lot of love. One of the highest yielding transcon routes for AS under attack.
It will be 3 daily each from B6/DL/AS in the summer time.

Agreed. I don't know how anybody makes any money at this point.

SANFan wrote:

I see 3X a day in Sept & Oct on the AS.com skeds....

They must have changed something if it dropped out by mistake. Maybe they intended to add a trip.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks enilria!!

chrisnh wrote:

I think that the EK A380 being pulled from JFK is going to show up at BOS. Just a hunch.

Nice how the media headlines were "United Airlines faces increased competition from arch-enemy Emirates" when they actually pulled capacity from NYC-DXB. Typical.

wedgetail737 wrote:

UA SFO-STS MAR 3>2

Is this route already becoming a loser?

<100 miles is drivable, regardless of traffic. It's a waste of airspace and usable runway for a 50-seater into an airport with such frequent capacity issues.

http://airportexpressinc.com/schedule.php#to-sfo The bus ride might be 2 1/2 hours but at least you can plan on that schedule for the most part. Flying into SFO, not so much.

jetblastdubai wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

UA SFO-STS MAR 3>2

Is this route already becoming a loser?

<100 miles is drivable, regardless of traffic. It's a waste of airspace and usable runway for a 50-seater into an airport with such frequent capacity issues.

http://airportexpressinc.com/schedule.php#to-sfo The bus ride might be 2 1/2 hours but at least you can plan on that schedule for the most part. Flying into SFO, not so much.

It might be drivable, but it makes it easier for people living in Sonoma, Napa, Lake or Mendocino counties it much less hassle. When traffic is bad, it can easily take 3+ hours. I expect this will go away, but it made perfect sense to me.

SCHATC422 wrote:

*UA IAH-BDL MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

I guess with BDL getting UA to resume SFO since it did so well this past year that IAH couldn't stay.

Oh well.

Houston has. and never will, be a sustainable route out of Hartford, CT.

Do you think NK might give it a shot, at least seasonally and maybe even less-than-daily sometime down the road?

777Mech wrote:

IPFreely wrote:

enilria wrote:

B6 must be happy
*DL BOS-FLL MAY 1.9>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2.0>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
*DL BOS-PBI MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0.1 JUL 1.0>0.1 AUG 1.0>0.1 SEP 0.9>0.2 OCT 1.0>0.1

We've had posts on here recently that indicated B6 was creaming DL in both fares and loads from BOS-Florida. Hard to verify of course but this indicates the posts were probably spot-on.

The BOS-PBI flight was axed in favor of BOS-SEA and BOS-FLL was upgauged.

Well technically BOS-PBI is only axed for 1 month and remains as a Saturday-only. I would imagine this will go back up to daily once DL have more gate space at BOS.

*DL SLC-COD APR 0.1>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0.2>1.2 JUL 0.3>1.3 AUG 0.3>1.3
*DL SLC-CPR APR 1.1>2 MAY 0.9>1.9 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2

As I suspected last week, turns out this was in fact and equipment filing error.

*DL SLC-PIT JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>0.9 OCT 0>1.0

Is that PIT's first ever nonstop to SLC or first since the US hub days?

*EK EWR-DXB JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
2 RTs is surprisingly little
*EK JFK-DXB JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2

Well don't forget about the 1-stop via MXP and if you consider EWR + JFK as a single market, it's still 3x daily nonstop + 2x daily 1-stop. That's still proportional to other non-capacity constrained cities (i.e. YYZ) in North America. Net capacity only drops slightly from a 380 to a 77W on the 1 flight moving to EWR.

To voice what others have said, thanks enilria for the time and effort you put into this every week!! We all appreciate it and love reading this.

AAvgeek744 wrote:

jetblastdubai wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

UA SFO-STS MAR 3>2

Is this route already becoming a loser?

<100 miles is drivable, regardless of traffic. It's a waste of airspace and usable runway for a 50-seater into an airport with such frequent capacity issues.

http://airportexpressinc.com/schedule.php#to-sfo The bus ride might be 2 1/2 hours but at least you can plan on that schedule for the most part. Flying into SFO, not so much.

It might be drivable, but it makes it easier for people living in Sonoma, Napa, Lake or Mendocino counties it much less hassle. When traffic is bad, it can easily take 3+ hours. I expect this will go away, but it made perfect sense to me.

Asking if the route is "becoming" a loser implies it was a winner at some point. T100 shows load factors in the Low-50s from June-October (only available through October), with October at 48%...

OzarkD9S wrote:

Actually I believe the one airline that could make two gates work at DAL is DL. No Texas hub anymore and flights to DL's hubs, especially ATL/MSP/DTW/SLC and SEA would do fine. Maybe even LGA if they shuffle some slots around.

Agreed. DL has shown the ability to do this in many places, as they continue to fly to multiple airports in many markets: SFO & OAK, ORD & MDW, IAH & HOU, etc. And my favorites: ATW & GRB. Proof that if everything is going through the hubs anyway, and you aren't too worried about filling the planes with O&D, you can split the operations and go to the passengers, instead of making them come to you.

Dominion301 wrote:

SCHATC422 wrote:

*UA IAH-BDL MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

I guess with BDL getting UA to resume SFO since it did so well this past year that IAH couldn't stay.

Oh well.

Houston has. and never will, be a sustainable route out of Hartford, CT.

Do you think NK might give it a shot, at least seasonally and maybe even less-than-daily sometime down the road?

777Mech wrote:

IPFreely wrote:

We've had posts on here recently that indicated B6 was creaming DL in both fares and loads from BOS-Florida. Hard to verify of course but this indicates the posts were probably spot-on.

The BOS-PBI flight was axed in favor of BOS-SEA and BOS-FLL was upgauged.

Well technically BOS-PBI is only axed for 1 month and remains as a Saturday-only. I would imagine this will go back up to daily once DL have more gate space at BOS.

*DL SLC-COD APR 0.1>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0.2>1.2 JUL 0.3>1.3 AUG 0.3>1.3
*DL SLC-CPR APR 1.1>2 MAY 0.9>1.9 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2

As I suspected last week, turns out this was in fact and equipment filing error.

*DL SLC-PIT JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>0.9 OCT 0>1.0

Is that PIT's first ever nonstop to SLC or first since the US hub days?

*EK EWR-DXB JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0
2 RTs is surprisingly little
*EK JFK-DXB JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2

Well don't forget about the 1-stop via MXP and if you consider EWR + JFK as a single market, it's still 3x daily nonstop + 2x daily 1-stop. That's still proportional to other non-capacity constrained cities (i.e. YYZ) in North America. Net capacity only drops slightly from a 380 to a 77W on the 1 flight moving to EWR.

To voice what others have said, thanks enilria for the time and effort you put into this every week!! We all appreciate it and love reading this.

Thanks for the smiles. I do think it is a little sad to see EK rolling back USA capacity because of the EWR-JFK swap. Americans travel very little given their wealth. So, anything that pushes that back makes me a little disappointed.

DaufuskieGuy wrote:

loisencroach wrote:

UA SFO-STS MAR 3>2

I wouldn't be surprised to hear DEN-STS as replacement. It's been the #1 target for the airport for awhile now.

i read the issue was CRJ performance off the 6000 ft runway?

I don't think CRJ performance would be too much of an issue for a 17-minute flight.

For Emirates, it's a slight reduction in capacity with one of the JFK flights being moved to EWR. The real surprise is that Avianca is ending service on CTG-JFK (and likely to PEI as well), which is currently served 3 times weekly. That said, I can't imagine Avianca leaving that slot unused...maybe adding a flight from GIG? (The departure slot would have to change.)

wedgetail737 wrote:

DaufuskieGuy wrote:

loisencroach wrote:

UA SFO-STS MAR 3>2

I wouldn't be surprised to hear DEN-STS as replacement. It's been the #1 target for the airport for awhile now.

i read the issue was CRJ performance off the 6000 ft runway?

I don't think CRJ performance would be too much of an issue for a 17-minute flight.

If you can fly STS-DEN in 17-minutes, sign me up!

LAX-TUS dropped is interesting. For one, at a minimum it often served as a way to route an OO a/c into TUS for maintenance. As well, Kirby leads us to believe he will keep growing LAX. As it is, there's not a whole hell of a lot connection there for the single flight to TUS. Going forward, I would expect it to return. But for now, given UA limitations at LAX and DL, AA and WN flying a minimum of 9 daily TUS-LAX it makes sense.

Dominion301 wrote:

*DL SLC-PIT JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>0.9 OCT 0>1.0

Is that PIT's first ever nonstop to SLC or first since the US hub days?

A relevant quote from this May 16, 2007 Pittsburgh Post-Gazette article:

One positive for travelers is a US Airways pullback creates opportunities for carriers such as Southwest, JetBlue and even Delta Air Lines, which recently added a Salt Lake City flight and plans to increase the size of its aircraft flying that route this summer. Due to all that new competition, air fares in Pittsburgh are down double digits in just six years, meaning no more drives to Cleveland for cheap flights, as former Mayor Tom Murphy once bragged of doing.

DL is really starting to make commitments to KPIT, it would appear. (Semi-related note: DL is actually a marketing partner with the Pittsburgh Penguins NHL team - I saw an ad for DL at a Pens game recently - but the Pens use a private-charter service for their flights.)

wedgetail737 wrote:

DaufuskieGuy wrote:

loisencroach wrote:

UA SFO-STS MAR 3>2

I wouldn't be surprised to hear DEN-STS as replacement. It's been the #1 target for the airport for awhile now.

i read the issue was CRJ performance off the 6000 ft runway?

I don't think CRJ performance would be too much of an issue for a 17-minute flight.

Yeah I want to fly that aircraft indeed. SY flies a 738 STS-MSP already, I'm sure an ERJ or CRJ would have no issues STS-DEN, even an A-319/320 or 73G/738 would work just fine from UA's fleet.

*DL SLC-PIT JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>0.9 OCT 0>1.0

Is that PIT's first ever nonstop to SLC or first since the US hub days?

Delta previously served PIT-SLC but only for the summer of 2007, IIRC...I seem to recall even MD-90 service, but news release was for CR9.

http://news.delta.com/delta-offer-custo ... ttsburgh-0