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evank516
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Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:31 pm

Wait a minute, I totally have my history confused. I thought DL beefed up SEA after AS decided to side with AA over DL in some codesharing agreement? Did I get my events crossed?
 
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kgaiflyer
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Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:55 pm

"UA LAX-YVR JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2"

Every AC flight on this route is also a UA codeshare flight.

So the the numbers are deceptive deceptive.
 
Rdh3e
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Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:48 pm

kgaiflyer wrote:
"UA LAX-YVR JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2"

Every AC flight on this route is also a UA codeshare flight.

So the the numbers are deceptive deceptive.

It's 6 AC mainline flights with UA codeshare and 2 UA CR7 flights.
 
ScottB
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Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:10 pm

enilria wrote:
It makes me think of the DL-US LGA-DCA swap, which was massively anti-competitive. I wonder if we will see something like that with LAX. AS is would be the obvious donor since they are unlikely to be in a winning position. I don't know what they could get in return that they could do anything with. I suppose there is also the possibility of UA giving up their position in LAX for something on the East Coast from AA. It would have to be PHL or JFK.


To be honest, I think the LGA-DCA swap between DL & US ended up being relatively good for competition because the government forced divestiture of slots to new/limited entrants as a result. Pre-swap, there was relatively little overlap at LGA between DL & US; they competed only to BOS, CHS, CMH, GSO, IND, RDU, RIC, SAV, and DCA from LGA; note that they did not compete to each other's hubs and apart from DL's LGA-MDW flights (later moved to ORD) they didn't compete to other airline hubs, either. US didn't even serve the big Florida airports non-stop from LGA. Competition was maintained on the BOS & DCA Shuttle routes post-swap. And post-swap, DL has added competing service from LGA to other carrier hubs at MIA, CLT, DFW, IAH, and DEN (and one could also argue they compete with WN to MKE, BNA, STL, and MCI). B6 gained slots at both airports and has used some of their LGA slots to start a competing BOS-LGA service.

So while some smaller markets from LGA ended up with less competition, only two of the markets with prior overlap between DL & US, CHS & SAV, are only served non-stop by a single carrier today (DL of course). And far more city-pairs see greater competition as a result of slot divestitures and DL's choice to allocate slots to larger, more competitive markets rather than US Airways' practice of slot-sitting with small prop aircraft on short markets with negligible O&D.

And outside of BOS, the non-hub markets DL exited from DCA as a result of the slot swap amounted to perhaps a half-dozen frequencies, mostly on 50-seat RJs -- and B6 entered BOS-DCA with the slots they gained from the divestiture (and has been a far more viable competitor in that market as well).
 
ericm2031
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Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:57 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
enilria wrote:
B6 must be happy
*DL BOS-FLL MAY 1.9>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2.0>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
*DL BOS-PBI MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0.1 JUL 1.0>0.1 AUG 1.0>0.1 SEP 0.9>0.2 OCT 1.0>0.1


We've had posts on here recently that indicated B6 was creaming DL in both fares and loads from BOS-Florida. Hard to verify of course but this indicates the posts were probably spot-on.


This is interesting. DL has stated it intends to grow BOS to ~150 flights a day. They're not going to get there by retreating from popular markets like this.

On a side note - how is it that DL can maintain 2x mainline BOS-TPA, but can barely make a larger market like FLL work 1x daily?


With B6 hubs on both ends and NK going to their hub, probably too much competition and very low yields. They can just connect them through ATL pretty quickly.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:12 pm

enilria wrote:
I wonder if we will see something like that with LAX. AS is would be the obvious donor since they are unlikely to be in a winning position.


Hard to say, but with AS focused on being relevant on the West Coast, particularly to travelers in California, it's impossible to be either without at least a halfway decent presence at LAX. With a current market share there of around 9% they'll want to stay there or grow, not shrink.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Thu Feb 01, 2018 2:34 pm

ScottB wrote:
enilria wrote:
It makes me think of the DL-US LGA-DCA swap, which was massively anti-competitive. I wonder if we will see something like that with LAX. AS is would be the obvious donor since they are unlikely to be in a winning position. I don't know what they could get in return that they could do anything with. I suppose there is also the possibility of UA giving up their position in LAX for something on the East Coast from AA. It would have to be PHL or JFK.


To be honest, I think the LGA-DCA swap between DL & US ended up being relatively good for competition because the government forced divestiture of slots to new/limited entrants as a result. Pre-swap, there was relatively little overlap at LGA between DL & US; they competed only to BOS, CHS, CMH, GSO, IND, RDU, RIC, SAV, and DCA from LGA; note that they did not compete to each other's hubs and apart from DL's LGA-MDW flights (later moved to ORD) they didn't compete to other airline hubs, either. US didn't even serve the big Florida airports non-stop from LGA. Competition was maintained on the BOS & DCA Shuttle routes post-swap. And post-swap, DL has added competing service from LGA to other carrier hubs at MIA, CLT, DFW, IAH, and DEN (and one could also argue they compete with WN to MKE, BNA, STL, and MCI). B6 gained slots at both airports and has used some of their LGA slots to start a competing BOS-LGA service.

So while some smaller markets from LGA ended up with less competition, only two of the markets with prior overlap between DL & US, CHS & SAV, are only served non-stop by a single carrier today (DL of course). And far more city-pairs see greater competition as a result of slot divestitures and DL's choice to allocate slots to larger, more competitive markets rather than US Airways' practice of slot-sitting with small prop aircraft on short markets with negligible O&D.

And outside of BOS, the non-hub markets DL exited from DCA as a result of the slot swap amounted to perhaps a half-dozen frequencies, mostly on 50-seat RJs -- and B6 entered BOS-DCA with the slots they gained from the divestiture (and has been a far more viable competitor in that market as well).


:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:

Plus, WN ended up with over 40 slots at DCA, almost all of which are used on routes where they are directly competing with AA. I think in the end, the slot swap was a net positive for the flying public. Both LGA and DCA now serve more destinations than before, and have more competition overall.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
eldiezonce
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Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:45 pm

WA707atMSP wrote:
I think once professionals like teachers and nurses get established in new careers in places like Orlando, Miami, and New York City, they will be reluctant to move back to Puerto Rico. Sadly, it's a real loss for the island that it is losing some of its most talented residents.


Perhaps some will. Many will return, as life in Puerto Rico can be quite wonderful. And the island will need teachers and nurses again. She will rebound.
 
globetrotter29
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Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:48 pm

SCHATC422 wrote:
*UA IAH-BDL MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

I guess with BDL getting UA to resume SFO since it did so well this past year that IAH couldn't stay.

Oh well.

Houston has. and never will, be a sustainable route out of Hartford, CT.



According to HBJ, this route is being temporarily suspended due to pilot shortages. Scheduled to return in the fall.
http://www.hartfordbusiness.com/article ... 09993/1002
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:13 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
It's 6 AC mainline flights with UA codeshare and 2 UA CR7 flights.
kgaiflyer wrote:
"UA LAX-YVR JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2"

Every AC flight on this route is also a UA codeshare flight.

So the the numbers are deceptive deceptive.

Not deceptive. It's disclosed how code shares are handled in the FAQ at the top of the page. Those UA CR7s are only sold as UA flights. The others are primarily sold as AC and have what is called a "duplicate record" in OAG on top of that with a UA code. Surely, you realize every flight now has like 8 duplicate codes on it. We aren't getting into that game.

ScottB wrote:
To be honest, I think the LGA-DCA swap between DL & US ended up being relatively good for competition because the government forced divestiture of slots to new/limited entrants as a result. Pre-swap, there was relatively little overlap at LGA between DL & US; they competed only to BOS, CHS, CMH, GSO, IND, RDU, RIC, SAV, and DCA from LGA; note that they did not compete to each other's hubs and apart from DL's LGA-MDW flights (later moved to ORD) they didn't compete to other airline hubs, either. US didn't even serve the big Florida airports non-stop from LGA. Competition was maintained on the BOS & DCA Shuttle routes post-swap. And post-swap, DL has added competing service from LGA to other carrier hubs at MIA, CLT, DFW, IAH, and DEN (and one could also argue they compete with WN to MKE, BNA, STL, and MCI). B6 gained slots at both airports and has used some of their LGA slots to start a competing BOS-LGA service.

The divestitures were good, but I still think AA being a stronger force in LGA and DL stronger in DCA was more consumer-friendly. US, now AA, was pretty cheap in LGA against DL prior to that deal. Post-merger it kind of came full-circle because AA-US still have a fair number of slots, but US was the weak player with the low pricing in most cases. That's mostly gone except flying to each other's hubs.

EA CO AS wrote:
enilria wrote:
I wonder if we will see something like that with LAX. AS is would be the obvious donor since they are unlikely to be in a winning position.


Hard to say, but with AS focused on being relevant on the West Coast, particularly to travelers in California, it's impossible to be either without at least a halfway decent presence at LAX. With a current market share there of around 9% they'll want to stay there or grow, not shrink.

I think they would trade LAX for more SFO real estate, but UA can do that deal and they won't IMHO.
FSDan wrote:
Plus, WN ended up with over 40 slots at DCA, almost all of which are used on routes where they are directly competing with AA. I think in the end, the slot swap was a net positive for the flying public. Both LGA and DCA now serve more destinations than before, and have more competition overall.

There are certainly some markets where you can say they are better off now, but I think on the whole it is worse. You also have to keep in mind that the decline in fuel prices coincided with the aftermath of that deal, so prices generally came down everywhere from the fuel cost cut, not the swap.
 
FlyPNS1
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Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:23 pm

enilria wrote:
There are certainly some markets where you can say they are better off now, but I think on the whole it is worse. You also have to keep in mind that the decline in fuel prices coincided with the aftermath of that deal, so prices generally came down everywhere from the fuel cost cut, not the swap.


But even adjusting for fuel prices, fares at DC have fallen much more than would be expected and passenger numbers surged because the LCC's brought in far more mainline service than the legacy carriers which were using more RJs. The swap would have been bad, but I think the divestitures really made it far better. AA barely has 50% of the market at DCA....far from a monopoly.
 
ScottB
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Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:44 pm

FSDan wrote:
Plus, WN ended up with over 40 slots at DCA, almost all of which are used on routes where they are directly competing with AA. I think in the end, the slot swap was a net positive for the flying public. Both LGA and DCA now serve more destinations than before, and have more competition overall.


I left out the WN slots at DCA as well as LGA because those were the result of forced divestitures by AA/US in order to obtain merger clearance, although those have certainly also been beneficial to competition, particularly at DCA. It's remarkable that passenger traffic at DCA is up over 30% as compared to 2010, and who would have ever thought WN would be the second-largest carrier there?
 
ScottB
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Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Thu Feb 01, 2018 7:08 pm

enilria wrote:
The divestitures were good, but I still think AA being a stronger force in LGA and DL stronger in DCA was more consumer-friendly. US, now AA, was pretty cheap in LGA against DL prior to that deal. Post-merger it kind of came full-circle because AA-US still have a fair number of slots, but US was the weak player with the low pricing in most cases. That's mostly gone except flying to each other's hubs.


We can agree to disagree here. One of my points was that US and DL simply didn't compete head-to-head to any meaningful extent, apart from the Shuttle routes, at LGA and DCA. There were 7 city-pair markets at LGA where the slot swap eliminated non-stop competition between US and DL, but I think there was ultimately far greater public benefit in DL's redeployment of those slots to larger markets and DL's choice to compete in markets which had been single-carrier monopolies prior to the swap (i.e. LGA-DEN/DFW/IAH/MIA/CLT/CLE/PIT). IMO it was also foreseeable at that point that AA and US would eventually combine in the future, and the result of that consolidation, even with the government forcing slot divestitures as a merger condition, would have resulted in AA being as dominant at LGA as DL is today.

US was a weak player at LGA because the slot-sitting strategy meant they just weren't all that relevant to NYC O&D, and they were connecting a bunch of small, weak markets with little demand between them. The demand for BGR-ITH, PVD-BTV, and ALB-CHO is pretty small.

As for DCA, I think the slot divestitures were ultimately the catalyst which resulted in a more competitive market than we would have seen if the status quo had been maintained. Weren't some of the DCA slots DL traded to US already being used by US (NW had a long-standing lease of slots to US)?
 
jmscsc
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Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:17 pm

UA is only temporarily suspending the IAH - BDL flight. It's back in the fall.

http://www.hartfordbusiness.com/article ... 09993/1002
 
alasizon
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Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:39 pm

loisencroach wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
SBA and SBP have runways just a tad longer than STS and operate CRJ’s to DEN with no problems


AA uses a CRJ-700 on the STS-PHX route.


They cancelled one of the two dailies, reportedly because of a pilot shortage, but the one frequency per day is now on a CRJ-900


Not sure where you heard it was a pilot shortage, it was an aircraft shortage, not enough OO CR7s to go around in PHX.

ScottB wrote:
I think UA is trying to avoid LAX markets where multiple competitors have superior schedules. They're adding MFR & RDM later this year and yet they don't serve a top-ten L.A. O&D market, PDX, non-stop from LAX. They don't serve SJC even though AA, AS, DL, & WN do. If they really intended to grow their presence in the market, rather than trying to subsist on connections from smaller markets in the region, they'd reduce or eliminate the flying to PSP, SBA, SBP, and SAN.


LAX-TUS isn't exactly a needed market by any means, there are very limited connections that will flow over LAX as opposed to SFO for UA. UA is going after the better yields and better use of equipment as opposed to the markets that "everyone" is already in.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
loisencroach
Posts: 611
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:56 am

Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:53 am

alasizon wrote:
loisencroach wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:

AA uses a CRJ-700 on the STS-PHX route.


They cancelled one of the two dailies, reportedly because of a pilot shortage, but the one frequency per day is now on a CRJ-900


Not sure where you heard it was a pilot shortage, it was an aircraft shortage, not enough OO CR7s to go around in PHX.

ScottB wrote:
I think UA is trying to avoid LAX markets where multiple competitors have superior schedules. They're adding MFR & RDM later this year and yet they don't serve a top-ten L.A. O&D market, PDX, non-stop from LAX. They don't serve SJC even though AA, AS, DL, & WN do. If they really intended to grow their presence in the market, rather than trying to subsist on connections from smaller markets in the region, they'd reduce or eliminate the flying to PSP, SBA, SBP, and SAN.


LAX-TUS isn't exactly a needed market by any means, there are very limited connections that will flow over LAX as opposed to SFO for UA. UA is going after the better yields and better use of equipment as opposed to the markets that "everyone" is already in.


Aircraft shortage - I stand corrected
 
ScottB
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Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:47 am

alasizon wrote:
LAX-TUS isn't exactly a needed market by any means, there are very limited connections that will flow over LAX as opposed to SFO for UA. UA is going after the better yields and better use of equipment as opposed to the markets that "everyone" is already in.


No, TUS is not a key market from LAX (although PDX, which UA exited from LAX, arguably is) but it is a top 40 market from LAX; UA also continues to serve several smaller markets non-stop from LAX like BOI, COS, FAT, and MRY (not to mention airports like PSP, SNA, SBA, and SBP which are almost entirely connecting markets over LAX). I would argue that the value of LAX-TUS to UA isn't in bolstering connections over LAX, but rather in offering a complete network to L.A.-based customers; connecting over SFO or DEN to TUS turns an hour-long hop into a half-day odyssey.
 
aaway
Posts: 1451
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2003 2:07 am

Re: OAG Changes 1/28/2018:AS Drops DAL-SFO?; DL Adds SLC-PIT; F9 Drops MCO-CUN; UA Drops IAH-BDL, LAX-TUS

Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:49 pm

ScottB wrote:
alasizon wrote:
LAX-TUS isn't exactly a needed market by any means, there are very limited connections that will flow over LAX as opposed to SFO for UA. UA is going after the better yields and better use of equipment as opposed to the markets that "everyone" is already in.


No, TUS is not a key market from LAX (although PDX, which UA exited from LAX, arguably is) but it is a top 40 market from LAX; UA also continues to serve several smaller markets non-stop from LAX like BOI, COS, FAT, and MRY (not to mention airports like PSP, SNA, SBA, and SBP which are almost entirely connecting markets over LAX). I would argue that the value of LAX-TUS to UA isn't in bolstering connections over LAX, but rather in offering a complete network to L.A.-based customers; connecting over SFO or DEN to TUS turns an hour-long hop into a half-day odyssey.


Going back to the end of days for the UA Shuttle, my impression is that UA somewhat punched above it's weight LAX-TUS. From '02 to '10, UA was the only network carrier (with the exception of AS for a brief period) on the route. Being the only network carrier also allowed UA to capture a preponderant share of interline connections at LAX.

Fast forward to today: Both AA and DL offer comparable, if not broader, networks ex-LAX. It feels that AA in particular has filled a lot of the unique int'l flows that UA once catered on an interline-only basis. Contributing: Combined, AA (#1, via the merger) and WN (#2) have a ~65% of total TUS market share. UA - with a low teens share - is in the fourth position.

Not having other hard numbers, it just feels that UA would've been working awfully hard with various points-of-sale TUS itineraries, on an ex-LAX basis. TUS is that classic medium sized, end point market that works well from hubs. With LAX being both crowded and diminished for UA, it does appear a justified discontinuation.

As an aside, I do believe that you've hit upon an intermediate UA strategy whereby UA will leverage a strong #2 market position in various cities to connect the dots. Those LAX - Pacific Northwest adds are indicative of that.
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