CHI2DFW
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Expanded UA at DEN, IAH, ORD

Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:11 am

Kirby is talking 17% increase at DEN, IAH, and ORD. Any speculations of new routes?

Given Kirby’s past at AA and DFW, I think ORD May finally get some international love!
 
jetero
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Re: Expanded UA at DEN, IAH, ORD

Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:18 am

Where is the 17% from?

The earnings call seemed to mention 21% more "connectivity" at IAH (as was evidenced by a LAS example) and 15% higher at ORD. Whether that is an increase in connecting city-pair combinations or volume, I'm not sure. A 15% increase in connectivity (as measured by connecting passengers) at a hub that's 50% connecting would be equivalent to a 7.5% total passenger volume increase.

They've got a long way to go to be relevant domestically at many stations again. A Wall Street analyst wrote: "Arguably UAL has no choice but to either shrink drastically or to pursue this path, and Scott Kirby wasn’t hired to shrink anything." I just don't get the logic of spreading it over 3 hubs. Further dilution if you ask me.

Note, the increase in connectivity is mainly aimed at domestic.
 
dc10lover
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Re: Expanded UA at DEN, IAH, ORD

Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:58 am

About 2 weeks ago I read United wants to grow by 6% in 2018.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
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jetblastdubai
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Re: Expanded UA at DEN, IAH, ORD

Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:22 am

CHI2DFW wrote:
Kirby is talking 17% increase at DEN, IAH, and ORD. Any speculations of new routes?


A lot of any increase might come from subbing larger aircraft. This year alone, UA is picking up 14 additional widebody A/C and a handful of new MAXs. 5-6 used, ex-CZ A319s also come out of the shop fairly soon. Besides Dulles, Denver and Houston probably have the most available physical space to accommodate more flights. ORD is a bit more challenged on real estate so it will be interesting to see what they do there.

Nice to see UA catching up a bit after several years of shrinking domesticaly while everyone else was running circles around them.
Every zoo is a petting zoo......if you're a man!
 
jetero
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Re: Expanded UA at DEN, IAH, ORD

Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:34 am

dc10lover wrote:
About 2 weeks ago I read United wants to grow by 6% in 2018.


6% system ASM growth in total, with growth focused on DEN, IAH, and ORD, meaning that growth will be stronger at those stations.
 
jetero
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Re: Expanded UA at DEN, IAH, ORD

Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:37 am

jetblastdubai wrote:
CHI2DFW wrote:
Kirby is talking 17% increase at DEN, IAH, and ORD. Any speculations of new routes?


A lot of any increase might come from subbing larger aircraft. This year alone, UA is picking up 14 additional widebody A/C and a handful of new MAXs. 5-6 used, ex-CZ A319s also come out of the shop fairly soon. Besides Dulles, Denver and Houston probably have the most available physical space to accommodate more flights. ORD is a bit more challenged on real estate so it will be interesting to see what they do there.

Nice to see UA catching up a bit after several years of shrinking domesticaly while everyone else was running circles around them.


Kirby specifically said in the earnings call that the increased capacity will be principally as a result of fleet additions, not upgauging:

First of all, the upgauging, which has been a steady upward pace over the last few years, it does pause this year. It starts going up again in '19 and '20 based on our fleet plan. We do have a lot of flexibility with our regional jet contracts, particularly the 50-seaters, so we do have the ability to – we do have a lot of flexibility with that in the next couple of years, so I'd probably leave it at that as far as how that works. But we do have that, so our hope is that we can replace 50-seaters with bigger regional jets or in some cases, it might be what you described, maybe a small narrowbody mainline airplane in its place. So stay tuned.

I suspect what he's trying to say is that the addition of the 50-seat jets will result in a pause in the growth in the number of seats per departure.
 
flyguy84
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Re: Expanded UA at DEN, IAH, ORD

Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:41 am

Facts people, facts. Kirby said he wants to grow capacity 4-6% in totality in each of the next three years.
SFO
 
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jetblastdubai
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Re: Expanded UA at DEN, IAH, ORD

Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:59 am

jetero wrote:
Kirby specifically said in the earnings call that the increased capacity will be principally as a result of fleet additions, not upgauging:

First of all, the upgauging, which has been a steady upward pace over the last few years, it does pause this year. It starts going up again in '19 and '20 based on our fleet plan. We do have a lot of flexibility with our regional jet contracts, particularly the 50-seaters, so we do have the ability to – we do have a lot of flexibility with that in the next couple of years, so I'd probably leave it at that as far as how that works. But we do have that, so our hope is that we can replace 50-seaters with bigger regional jets or in some cases, it might be what you described, maybe a small narrowbody mainline airplane in its place. So stay tuned.

I suspect what he's trying to say is that the addition of the 50-seat jets will result in a pause in the growth in the number of seats per departure.


I read that as well but came away with a different take on it. The 14 widebodies surely can't be all pegged for expansion. I would think many of them will displace some older, smaller, Int'l frames and bump them back to domestic widebody service where they currently have narrowbodies.
Every zoo is a petting zoo......if you're a man!
 
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qf789
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Re: Expanded UA at DEN, IAH, ORD

Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:12 am

Topic already being discussed, refer to

viewtopic.php?t=1384615
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