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Gasman
Posts: 1863
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sat Feb 03, 2018 8:35 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
I am praying for an A350 order, so that NZ can re-gain some of its lost momentum in passenger comfort, particularly with seating.

I do not hold much hope for the finer details being improved, like no check-in desks, no in-flight magazines or charging for movies.

Are these really that outrageous to fix? It is not like we are asking for amenity kits, hot towels, in-flight duty free or mood lighting!

Does this represent a negative, and relatively recent quirk of the New Zealand psyche? That if something is not easily and directly measurable in terms of profit, it automatically follows that it has no value?

Paul Brennan was alluding to this recently on his Bring our Birds Home site. That in Australia, QF recognise the "spiritual" value of aircraft and donate live aircraft to museums. QF must also perceive that there is benefit to the airline in doing this in ways that cannot be easily quantified. But this is not an ideology embraced my NZ, from whom it would seem Paul B has had little or no support for his project.
 
tealnz
Posts: 257
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:47 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:01 pm

PA515 wrote:
I think Air NZ will order A350-900s with deliveries commencing between Jul and Dec 2020. The Air NZ balance sheet is clear of 'Capital Commitments' after FY2020 with the last A320NEO and ATR72-600 on order due for delivery in early 2020.

The 77E upgrade was Mar 2014 to Dec 2015, so going by past upgrades that would probably only last until about 2020-2021. Also, the leases on two 77Es expire in 2020. I don't know which two or if the other two have recently been extended.

The initial ILFC leases were for twelve years, so the two that expire in 2020 appear to have been extended by three years from 2017 to 2020. The leased 77Es are ZK-OKA, ZK-OKD, ZK-OKE and ZK-OKG. Of these only ZK-OKA and ZK-OKE have been repainted.

And getting A350-900s in 2020 enables the EDTO process to get underway much earlier, instead of waiting until 2023 for the 777-8.


Really useful info on capital programme and lease timings.

If AKL-EWR is going to be the new non-stop flagship route I expect NZ will have a strong interest in having the route operational from October 2020. The America's Cup regattas from December 2020 are too good an opportunity to pass up. With your scenario (deliveries from mid-2020) that looks do-able.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3917
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:07 pm

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
Yeah, my money will be on them announcing Chicago. Air NZ inviting Obama makes no other reasonable sense.

There are other possibilities, like:

- NZ announcing a sponsorship deal, like supporting a golf tournament (the pair will play golf together)
- NZ announcing a HNL-related development (like CHC - HNL), given that Obama was born in Hawaii
- Obama featuring in NZ's upcoming Antarctica safety video, given his ideas relating to climate change

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6232
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:54 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
The NZ Herald is reporting a rumour that NZ will announce ORD in March, coinciding with a visit by Barack Obama to New Zealand, which is being organized by NZ and Sir John Key (who is on NZ's Board now). If true, I assume that it will be a 77W (and not 789) service?

The Herald on Sunday understands Obama will visit on about March 21 arranged by Air New Zealand. The reason for the visit is unknown but there has been speculation Air NZ is about to launch a new route to the United States, likely Chicago which is Obama's home town.

See: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/artic ... d=11987689.

Cheers,

C.


Well Boeing is headquartered in Chicago, bring on that 772 replacement order for 777/787.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:59 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
Well Boeing is headquartered in Chicago

I highly doubt that the Obama visit would be tied to a Boeing order - that would be for a Trump visit, more than anything!

Cheers,

C.
 
Motorhussy
Posts: 3437
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:42 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Well Boeing is headquartered in Chicago

I highly doubt that the Obama visit would be tied to a Boeing order - that would be for a Trump visit, more than anything!

Cheers,

C.


Although it could be a nice subtle snub of the Trump administration if it were a Boeing order tied up with a Chicago launch and an Obama visit.
come visit the south pacific
 
NZ6
Posts: 509
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:53 pm

planemanofnz wrote:


I do not hold much hope for the finer details being improved, like no check-in desks, no in-flight magazines or charging for movies.

C.


Check-in desks? - what exactly does that change? If they flew a DC-6 but had check-in desks, would that improve things? Kiosks are great, they are so much quick than the old queues. I had to line up last year overseas - the whole process felt dated and old fashioned. It actually made my impression of the airline questionable as I wondered but else was being neglected.

In-flight magazine? you mean your own in-flight advertising pack? There is literally nothing but advertising and a few articles in there. Even some of those articles were paid for! Give me my own random magazine from the overpriced airport news agent any day. Other than the route map and fleet guide I don't think I've ever read an article in one. That stuff is now on the IFE. As an airline nerd I've got my own stack of stolen magazines from various airlines but when I get on board and there isn't one it definitely doesn't change my perspective on passenger comfort. I would suspect a non airline geek would feel even less bothered by it or even notice.

Long haul except HNL (which is mid-haul) don't charge for movies. Short haul is another beast and the A350 or 778 would be purchased for long haul ops.
 
nz2
Posts: 207
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:26 am

A question for Gold Elite readers. I was thinking today that there was no Xmas gift from NZ this year - unless I missed it. For 2016 they said that after a survey (which i must have also missed) most GE's preferred to receive a free upgrade instead of the usual hamper pack. Did any GE's receive anything this Xmas?
 
NZ6
Posts: 509
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:35 am

 
nz2
Posts: 207
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:38 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:31 am

Google search located this, https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/air-new ... -gift.html

Thank you for this, it explains a lot !!
 
PA515
Posts: 1345
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 04, 2018 6:26 am

qf789 wrote:
There is no Paris Air Show this year. The dates quoted are for 2019. Farnborough Air Show is this year 16-22 July

Thanks. Should have checked.

planemanofnz wrote:
The Herald on Sunday understands Obama will visit on about March 21 arranged by Air New Zealand. The reason for the visit is unknown but there has been speculation Air NZ is about to launch a new route to the United States, likely Chicago which is Obama's home town.

Excellent timing. QF's PER-LHR 789 commences Sat 24 March. Air NZ is after some of the media coverage around that time.

PA515
 
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mariner
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:27 am

planemanofnz wrote:
IMHO, the single worst item in the current uniform range is the male vest - there is honestly way too much happening on it! :crazy: :crazy: :crazy:

Image


I agree. No matter how clean they are, they always seem to look a bit tacky - even grubby. I admire the intention to use local designers, but both Zambesi and Trelise Cooper seem to be more about the effect on the catwalk than the use in the cabin.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
DougS
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:15 am

Not that I know for sure, but my educated guess at the chances of any order for 350/777 at Singapore is precisely 0. They haven't even entered an RFP yet. Maybe a top up of 320/787 but in the low single digits, and most likely not announced at the show.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:20 am

Seems like a bit of drama at Auckland involving a yellow 757 this evening: http://nzh.tw/11988652

Looking at the playback on FlightRadar24, it appears to have experienced some sort of issue on climb, and has then diverted to overhead Whenuapai, where it entered a holding pattern, completed two holds there, then returned to land at Auckland: https://fr24.com/data/flights/hj1#1055ab10

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:12 pm

It is great to see that PR is seeing strong demand for its New Zealand service, ex-LHR.

"For the next six months, the airline is seeing very strong demand, for Bali, Australia, New Zealand"

See: http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/ ... ng-january.

It would be nice if PR upgraded its AKL service to be on a plane with personal IFE in Y.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:16 pm

An interesting incident unfolded at GIS yesterday, where the engine of a private jet blew a boarding ramp away from an NZ turboprop.

See: http://gisborneherald.co.nz/localnews/3 ... n-gisborne.

I had no idea that private jets visit GIS - the runway is only 1,310 m! Perhaps it is someone associated with Rocket Lab out at Mahia?

Cheers,

C.
 
zkncj
Posts: 2977
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:44 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
It is great to see that PR is seeing strong demand for its New Zealand service, ex-LHR.

"For the next six months, the airline is seeing very strong demand, for Bali, Australia, New Zealand"

See: http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/ ... ng-january.

It would be nice if PR upgraded its AKL service to be on a plane with personal IFE in Y.

Cheers,

C.


When they having been selling AKL-LHR for around $1000-1100return you can understand why they have been getting good loads, one would have to think there is very little profit in these fares?
 
nz2
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Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:38 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:13 am

mariner wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
IMHO, the single worst item in the current uniform range is the male vest - there is honestly way too much happening on it! :crazy: :crazy: :crazy:

Image


I agree. No matter how clean they are, they always seem to look a bit tacky - even grubby. I admire the intention to use local designers, but both Zambesi and Trelise Cooper seem to be more about the effect on the catwalk than the use in the cabin.

mariner


I have to agree with you on this one, the uniforms for the last 10 years or so have left a lot to be desired.....
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:01 am

NZ must be due to announce their half year results in a couple weeks. I wonder if there will be any other announcements at the same time. Other than the talked about ORD possibly later in March.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:35 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ must be due to announce their half year results in a couple weeks. I wonder if there will be any other announcements at the same time.

The A320NEOs are due to arrive soon - this may be discussed more:

- Replacing 789s on AKL - PPT and CHC - PER, freeing up those 789s
- Opening up new regional routes, such as ADL - ZQN and CHC - CNS
- Introduction of a regional Business Class product, to compete with QF
- Refurbishment of the regional Economy Class product, which is dated

Other than that, in-flight wifi or the Obama visit could be elaborated on.

Cheers,

C.
 
DougS
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:20 am

320NEO is not going to do PER. Can it? Yes probably. Will it? No.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:46 am

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ must be due to announce their half year results in a couple weeks. I wonder if there will be any other announcements at the same time.

The A320NEOs are due to arrive soon - this may be discussed more:

- Replacing 789s on AKL - PPT and CHC - PER, freeing up those 789s
- Opening up new regional routes, such as ADL - ZQN and CHC - CNS
- Introduction of a regional Business Class product, to compete with QF
- Refurbishment of the regional Economy Class product, which is dated

Other than that, in-flight wifi or the Obama visit could be elaborated on.

Cheers,

C.


Of those a refresh of regional Y class is most likely new A320NEO’s coming so it makes sense for something to be done there with the new aircraft.

I wonder about the competitive response to DY and LCC that was mentioned late last year.

And NZ were said to be looking at Dry leasing some 777’s, for mainline or a new LCC? 77W’s or 772’s?

Maybe a few routes to go LCC like SGN/DPS/NRT/HNL, HNL, NRT could be like QF/JQ and have mainline service as well, maybe some of those ex CHC for a LCC aswell initially with 2-3 772’s.

I note HKG-AKL will run 1 hr earlier than last year for NS, means it arrives at a similar time to NRT and the aircraft has more time to do a short haul before a long haul in the evening.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:02 am

planemanofnz wrote:
- Replacing 789s on AKL - PPT and CHC - PER, freeing up those 789s

Doubt AKL-PPT would go A321NEO as cargo capacity is important, and the 789 can be used between an early morning arrival and late evening departure.

As for CHC-PER, I think Air NZ will keep this as a 789. A321NEO crew would need to be accommodated at PER. CHC-PER has the potential to attract more stopover and connecting pax from Europe etc on SQ, TG, SA and eventually others including Air NZ. Will be interesting to see if AKL-PER gets an increase in the 2018 Northern Winter schedule. Possibly a Su AKL-PER 1855/2120 / Mon PER-AKL 0700/1805.

planemanofnz wrote:
- Opening up new regional routes, such as ADL - ZQN and CHC - CNS

CHC-CNS is a possibility on a par with CHC-NAN, so only seasonal. However, not at the expense of frequency from AKL as Air NZ carries pax from North America to CNS via AKL. Will be interesting to see if there is a return to year round AKL-CNS.

planemanofnz wrote:
- Introduction of a regional Business Class product, to compete with QF

Air NZ has already said the A320NEO / A321NEO will be all economy, but with some 'Space Plus' rows up the front.

planemanofnz wrote:
- Refurbishment of the regional Economy Class product, which is dated

Delivery of the A320NEO / A321NEO between Jul 2018 and Jan 2020 with the new Acro seats takes care of that.

PA515
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:55 am

The A321 will have around 210Y seats IIRC correctly from a media release. It isn't going to be utilised for anything except high demand point to point transtasman. Flights that have outgrown the A320. such as NZ791 ADL, NZ 725, NZ729 MEL, NZ711 SYD, 739, BNE, 754 NAN and potentially NZ996 APW, NZ970/974 TBU, NZ748 RAR (although I think they will stay 320s). The 320NEOs will be all about adding extra frequency to existing markets, new flights to new destinations.
Flown to 147 Airports in 59 Countries on 81 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:39 am

aerorobnz wrote:
The A321 will have around 210Y seats IIRC correctly from a media release.


Was 209 pax with the original A321NEO configuration, but will be 214 pax with the new cabin flex version (Slide 61).
https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... tation.pdf

The slide illustration is not the cabin flex version.

PA515
 
777ER
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:19 pm

What will happen with the current A320R's? Sold/returned to lessor or become A320D's for further expansions?
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DavidJ08
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:56 pm

777ER wrote:
What will happen with the current A320R's? Sold/returned to lessor or become A320D's for further expansions?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news ... d=11265806 Original report says they're replacing the regional A320s with the neo, which would make sense considering the A320I (as NZ calls them - A320 "international") were built between 2003 and 2006 so the oldest ones are coming up on 15 years of age - and the 737-300 were replaced at about the same age. (Short haul airplanes tend to be replaced at a younger age than long haul ones so I've compared the A320I to the 737-300 rather than the 767 or the 747.)
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:00 pm

Does the A321 Neo LR have the range for AKL-DPS, AKL-MNL or AKL-HNL? Not that I am expecting NZ to go this way but curious to know.
Plane mad!
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:16 pm

According to gcmap it's 3,814nmi AKL-HNL and the numbers on the A321LR I've seen say something around 4,000nmi.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=akl-hnl&MS=wls&DU=nm

So maybe just?

I think whatever Boeing/Airbus come out for the next generation NMA/MoM will be very interesting for Air NZ. Narrowbody economics with enough range to reach deep into the asia-pacific area. Just what they want.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:48 pm

777ER wrote:
What will happen with the current A320R's? Sold/returned to lessor or become A320D's for further expansions?


They own 6, they said a while back that they could if required hang on to these or some of for increased domestic flying, probably nothing stopping them from carrying on International either until they order more NEO’s.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:24 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ must be due to announce their half year results in a couple weeks. I wonder if there will be any other announcements at the same time. Other than the talked about ORD possibly later in March.


Interesting as I have been thinking about this one too.

When you go round the airline

Routes / Markets
1. South America = preforming well, still a too immature of a market to add new destinations, will need to be developed and daily before they open a second route. They will have learnt from China (SHA & BJS) on this.
2. South Asia = Singapore going 3X daily this year with SQ alliance which is performing well, HKG alliance going well with CX (Could see 3x daily). DPS, SGN all doing well and continuing with longer seasons again.
3. North Asia = This is where you may see something - Japan, moving into Haneda, dropping NRT long term. Increase in other Japan routes, seasonal scheduled services from new destination (Inbound tourism). China, alliance doing well. PVG is okay. Maybe new route but unlikely now.
4. North America = IAH ahead of plan (was a 5 year mark against business plan at the end of year 1). Maybe ORD but will likely come after or at the same time as an airplane order.
5. Short Haul - nothing new.

Product
1. Long Haul - nothing 772/77W referb underway / done. 787 all new and shiny still.
2. Short Haul A320/A321NEO coming, Domestic A320 all newish
3. ATR600 new and 500 on the departure
4. Q300. Depends what they doing. See fleet below.

Fleet
1. 772 / 77W replacement, could be a talking point. NZ in the market and what they want from airbus / Boeing followed by when to expect an order.
2. A320/A321NEO - delivery update.
3. ATR600 - nothing
4. Q300 - how long are they planing to keep them, the fleet is starting to age but do they need replacing yet? If not is a referb due if so when?

There will be the usual global economic outlook stuff, competition, tourism, fuel, QF/EK changes. ULH routes.

I'm expecting a good result financially but an otherwise boring update, there in the boring yet exciting part of the cycle were things are coming but aren't ready for public consumption i.e new routes and new planes.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:38 pm

NZ6 wrote:
Product ... Long Haul ... nothing

Surely long-haul Business Class must be due for an upgrade?

NZ6 wrote:
HKG alliance going well with CX (Could see 3x daily).

Highly doubtful, given HX's seasonal double daily AKL service.

I am more interested in what will happen to CX's CHC - HKG.

NZ6 wrote:
Japan, moving into Haneda, dropping NRT long term

No - slot issues, plus NZ needs to serve NRT, to serve HND.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:28 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Product ... Long Haul ... nothing

Surely long-haul Business Class must be due for an upgrade?

NZ6 wrote:
HKG alliance going well with CX (Could see 3x daily).

Highly doubtful, given HX's seasonal double daily AKL service.

I am more interested in what will happen to CX's CHC - HKG.

NZ6 wrote:
Japan, moving into Haneda, dropping NRT long term

No - slot issues, plus NZ needs to serve NRT, to serve HND.

Cheers,

C.


Business Class on the 772 just got refreshed, 77W even more recent. I can't see if for another 3-5years.
I can't see HX being much of an issue, agree unlikely but if anything this could be it, it just creates more China options with Dragon and other carriers.
NH may assist with slots, don't read too much into what's written there's always a way of getting slots, I once read there were no slots for LHR but NZ got them, same for betters times into PVG but NZ got them also.

Mind you, we once read China was a bad move. There's now the same or one more destinations in China direct from AKL than there is in Australia.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:04 pm

NZ6 wrote:
I can't see HX being much of an issue

HX is an issue, because:

- O&D: HX is significantly cheaper than CX, and would have eroded yields in the market
- China: NZ cannot code-share on CX and KA flights from Hong Kong to Mainland China

NZ6 wrote:
NH may assist with slots

Ugh, no - Japan's MLIT (and not NH) is who controls the HND slot and timing allocations.

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6232
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:06 am

There has been the odd murmuring of a new product on what replaces the 772 fleet.

It looks like HX will keep the overnight AKL-HKG flight over NS rather than the morning departure, arrives 1215 stays till 2330, that’s a new arrival time to, different to the 0730 and 1415 currently.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:57 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ must be due to announce their half year results in a couple weeks. I wonder if there will be any other announcements at the same time. Other than the talked about ORD possibly later in March.


Interesting as I have been thinking about this one too.

When you go round the airline

Routes / Markets
1. South America = preforming well, still a too immature of a market to add new destinations, will need to be developed and daily before they open a second route. They will have learnt from China (SHA & BJS) on this.
2. South Asia = Singapore going 3X daily this year with SQ alliance which is performing well, HKG alliance going well with CX (Could see 3x daily). DPS, SGN all doing well and continuing with longer seasons again.
3. North Asia = This is where you may see something - Japan, moving into Haneda, dropping NRT long term. Increase in other Japan routes, seasonal scheduled services from new destination (Inbound tourism). China, alliance doing well. PVG is okay. Maybe new route but unlikely now.
4. North America = IAH ahead of plan (was a 5 year mark against business plan at the end of year 1). Maybe ORD but will likely come after or at the same time as an airplane order.
5. Short Haul - nothing new.

Product
1. Long Haul - nothing 772/77W referb underway / done. 787 all new and shiny still.
2. Short Haul A320/A321NEO coming, Domestic A320 all newish
3. ATR600 new and 500 on the departure
4. Q300. Depends what they doing. See fleet below.

Fleet
1. 772 / 77W replacement, could be a talking point. NZ in the market and what they want from airbus / Boeing followed by when to expect an order.
2. A320/A321NEO - delivery update.
3. ATR600 - nothing
4. Q300 - how long are they planing to keep them, the fleet is starting to age but do they need replacing yet? If not is a referb due if so when?

There will be the usual global economic outlook stuff, competition, tourism, fuel, QF/EK changes. ULH routes.

I'm expecting a good result financially but an otherwise boring update, there in the boring yet exciting part of the cycle were things are coming but aren't ready for public consumption i.e new routes and new planes.

NZ would love HND but it isn’t going to happen. Has taken years to get the slots they have and as planeman said part of the deal to get those slots was to serve NRT still (and also KIX is my understanding). NZ is loving Japan growth right now. Flights already full either side of the RWC too.

ORD was apparently leaked by someone not in the airline.
Expect it to be announced by mid-year and running around Dec (pending 787 issues being resolved and extra 777 leased capacity).
57 types. 38 countries. 24 airlines.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:03 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
I can't see HX being much of an issue

HX is an issue, because:

- O&D: HX is significantly cheaper than CX, and would have eroded yields in the market
- China: NZ cannot code-share on CX and KA flights from Hong Kong to Mainland China

NZ6 wrote:
NH may assist with slots

Ugh, no - Japan's MLIT (and not NH) is who controls the HND slot and timing allocations.

Cheers,

C.


I don't think NZ is looking at or wanting the low yield O&D traffic. Not for growth anyway, they accept it but decent yield management keeps it in check.

NZ can definitely use HKG and CX/KA as a gateway into China - refer to this fare document: https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/NZ-Agent ... 9Aug17.xls

I guess what I'm saying if NZ could be looking to increase premium depend into HKG, China and beyond with the CX alliance by introducing a 3rd daily service.

Re HND; what can happen (inside knowledge and experience) is NH and NZ go to local authorities and either apply or state (whatever the local policy and regulations are) that whatever specific slot in question is, is now being used for NH marketed operations to AKL outlining NZ equipment will be used.

Some cases where possible and viable the slot can be sold.

There are ways around it, unfortunately it's not always quick. NZ won't be wanting to use dual airports long term.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3917
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:08 am

NZ6 wrote:
I don't think NZ is looking at or wanting the low yield O&D traffic

NZ6 wrote:
NZ can definitely use HKG and CX/KA as a gateway into China

I would have thought that these two statements were somewhat incompatible - NZ being unable to code-share with CX or KA beyond HKG has big implications for its ability to attract any premium (Mainland Chinese) traffic, particularly given the inability of frequent fliers to earn NZ FFP points the whole way through, and NZ's FFP not allowing accruals on CX or KA codes beyond HKG.

NZ6 wrote:
NZ won't be wanting to use dual airports long term.

NZ has no choice, but to serve NRT (be it from AKL, CHC or wherever), if it wishes to continue to serve HND - that is part of Japan's regulatory position. It is for this reason that QF was forced to maintain a NRT service (this time, through BNE, and then MEL), when it obtained rights to serve HND, and withdrew its SYD - NRT service. NZ will therefore not be leaving NRT for HND.

NZ6 wrote:
Re HND; what can happen (inside knowledge and experience) is NH and NZ go to local authorities and either apply or state (whatever the local policy and regulations are) that whatever specific slot in question is, is now being used for NH marketed operations to AKL outlining NZ equipment will be used.

Long-haul HND slots are assigned by the MLIT based on nations - for example, Australia has 14 weekly slots, being 7 for Australian carriers (taken by QF) and 7 for Japanese carriers (taken by NH). No more flights to Australia can happen unless the MLIT releases more slots to Australia. It is not as simple as JL telling the MLIT it is dropping an HND flight, in favour of SYD - HND.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3917
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:26 am

AKL will be one of the destinations to feature upgrades to HX's Business Class product.

See: https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... lass-menu/.

With small improvements like this, and competitive pricing, more people will fly with HX.

ZK-NBT wrote:
It looks like HX will keep the overnight AKL-HKG flight over NS rather than the morning departure, arrives 1215 stays till 2330, that’s a new arrival time to, different to the 0730 and 1415 currently.

This is good - it will maintain many of HX's connections to Mainland China and beyond.

Cheers,

C.
 
PA515
Posts: 1345
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:51 am

planemanofnz wrote:
AKL will be one of the destinations to feature upgrades to HX's Business Class product.

See: https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... lass-menu/.

With small improvements like this, and competitive pricing, more people will fly with HX


Not if they their aircraft are repossessed. The Hainan Group has a significant cash flow problem and has fallen behind with lease payments.

PA515
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3917
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:58 am

New Zealand has seen the highest foreign visitor arrivals since 2008, in 2017.

See:
- https://blueswandaily.com/new-zealand-s ... s-in-2017/.
- https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-r ... ember-2017.

What really stands out to me is South Korea - it now sends almost the same number of visitors to New Zealand as Japan does (91,000 in 2017, compared to Japan's 102,000).

Its growth rate of 10.2% was significantly higher than other developed Asian markets, like Malaysia (4.0%), China (2.2%), Singapore (2.2%), Japan (1.3%) and Taiwan (-3.6%).

Of these 91,000 visitors, 41,000 used the direct ICN - AKL service, with big connections through:

- SYD (28,000) - I assume a large number of these would be connections from OZ's SYD flight?
- TYO (4,500)
- CAN (2,400)

Last year, Auckland Airport said that Korea had the largest un-met demand for air services to AKL.

When will OZ and NZ wake up to this growth, and take on KE's mammoth 748 summer AKL flight?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3917
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:40 am

The Stats NZ report on visitor arrivals also had other interesting material, much of which can explain the up-coming upgrade of the NZ-SQ JV:

1. European transit points
- UK visitors come via SIN (26,500) more than via DXB (23,000), HKG (20,000), LAX (11,000) or DOH (9,500) - good news for the NZ-SQ JV.
- SIN also beats DXB and HKG (in that order) as departure ports for German visitors, while for French visitors, it is behind both DXB and HKG.

2. Asian transit points
- Indian visitors overwhelmingly came to New Zealand via SIN (20,000), with transit numbers via BKK and KUL declining by about 20% each!
- Malaysian visitors overwhelmingly came to New Zealand via D7's OOL service (25,000), than on any other service, including MH's (14,700).

3. American visitor trends
- Less American visitors came to New Zealand through IAH (-7.2%) or HNL (-4.5%) - but, those through LAX (30.5%) and SFO (26.5%) surged.

4. Use of Christchurch Airport
- Fewer Japanese are flying through CHC (just ~6,000 out of ~102,000 visitors) - this number is half that recorded just 4-5 years ago (~13,000).
- In contrast to the Japanese, South Korean visitors flying through CHC have doubled since 2013, from a mere 10,000 in 2013 to 20,000 in 2017.
- CHC is also seeing Chinese growth - PVG visitors increased from 3,500 to 10,000 in 4 years, and PEK visitors increased from 2,000 to 6,000.

See: https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-r ... ember-2017.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 509
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:04 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
I don't think NZ is looking at or wanting the low yield O&D traffic

NZ6 wrote:
NZ can definitely use HKG and CX/KA as a gateway into China

I would have thought that these two statements were somewhat incompatible - NZ being unable to code-share with CX or KA beyond HKG has big implications for its ability to attract any premium (Mainland Chinese) traffic, particularly given the inability of frequent fliers to earn NZ FFP points the whole way through, and NZ's FFP not allowing accruals on CX or KA codes beyond HKG.

C.


Sorry didn't pick up the code share part, I was generally meaning selling tickets to China over HKG with CX/KA, that part can be done.

I don't get what you mean by the statements being "incompatible".

Let's remember, the alliance is based on both carriers selling seats on each others metal. CX has operated twice daily before while NZ's operated AKL-HKG, so there's been 3x daily before while in direct competition. I fail to see why, when working in an alliance it can't work now?

The lack of code-sharing slightly hinders sales and marketing but that won't be a significant barrier. Loyalty recognition and Points etc is an issue for a small section of customers who's purchasing decisions are made on the benefits of a loyalty program but those customers will likely stick with CX direct or if *A loyal member go SQ or CA.

Essentially, the CX alliance is working today, I'm suggesting both carries will look to grow the frequency to 3x daily opening more connections and potentially protecting one of the services which connects to Europe for higher yield.

Something like,

0900:1510 - Evening connections to China
1300:1910 - Allowing incoming connections in AKL
2350:0600 - Typical overnighter connecting both ends
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3917
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:49 am

NZ6 wrote:
I don't get what you mean by the statements being "incompatible"

Okay, I'll break it down:

- You said that NZ is not interested in low-yielding traffic on the HKG route, but a major driver of high-yielding traffic is loyalty and rewards (FFP, lounge access etc)
- NZ can't use HKG as its gateway to China for high-yielding traffic (as you suggest), as NZ's FFP members are denied such rewards (with no CX/KA code-sharing)
- For example, a gold NZ FFP member flying CTU - AKL on KA via HKG, on Y+, wouldn't be able to access any lounge in CTU, or gain FFP points on CTU - HKG

It's more likely that these higher-yielding (New Zealand-based) customers will travel on NZ through PVG, CA through PEK or SQ through SIN, to Mainland China.

This all works against NZ pushing HKG to a higher frequency than it already has, IMO. The aggressive arrival of HX to AKL will also hinder further increases, IMO.

NZ6 wrote:
CX has operated twice daily before while NZ's operated AKL-HKG ... I fail to see why, when working in an alliance it can't work now?

NZ6 wrote:
... both carries will look to grow the frequency to 3x daily

The JV is already at 3x daily on AKL - HKG during summer, before it drops back to 2x daily for the winter. This is sufficient, and in line with the SQ JV in summer.

The JV's additional New Zealand capacity was directed by CX to CHC, where CX gets a competitive advantage over HX, and impresses the NZCC for JV renewal.

Cheers,

C.
 
User avatar
aerorobnz
Posts: 8102
Joined: Sat Feb 10, 2001 3:43 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:13 am

Of course, all the local Chinese councils/Governments are the ones propping up the flights like CDU/XIY/SZX/CKG etc, If they still lose money at the end of their contracts the question is will they continue the investment or cut their losses. Airlines like CZ/MU will ride them out.
Flown to 147 Airports in 59 Countries on 81 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6232
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:06 am

planemanofnz wrote:
New Zealand has seen the highest foreign visitor arrivals since 2008, in 2017.

See:
- https://blueswandaily.com/new-zealand-s ... s-in-2017/.
- https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-r ... ember-2017.

What really stands out to me is South Korea - it now sends almost the same number of visitors to New Zealand as Japan does (91,000 in 2017, compared to Japan's 102,000).

Its growth rate of 10.2% was significantly higher than other developed Asian markets, like Malaysia (4.0%), China (2.2%), Singapore (2.2%), Japan (1.3%) and Taiwan (-3.6%).

Of these 91,000 visitors, 41,000 used the direct ICN - AKL service, with big connections through:

- SYD (28,000) - I assume a large number of these would be connections from OZ's SYD flight?
- TYO (4,500)
- CAN (2,400)

Last year, Auckland Airport said that Korea had the largest un-met demand for air services to AKL.

When will OZ and NZ wake up to this growth, and take on KE's mammoth 748 summer AKL flight?

Cheers,

C.


Korea was something like 108000 visitors in the late 90’s early 00’s. KE ran a double daily peak season 744, they slightly reduced AKL and ran seasonal CHC for 3 years. OZ ran a 4 weekly 772 from OCT 03 March 05. NZ haven’t been to Seoul since 1997.

Japan was over 170000 at its peak in the early 2000’s, NZ served NRT/KIX/NGO at the time previously also FUK. KIX saw seasonal 744’s and NRT year round 744’s. I don’t think NGO was ever a great success although it was served for 12 years.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3917
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:27 am

ZK-NBT wrote:

Okay - but I'm talking about today, not 20 years ago? In that period, markets have changed considerably - heck, NZ has dropped and re-instated multiple destinations, like SIN and YVR.

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6232
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:00 am

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

Okay - but I'm talking about today, not 20 years ago? In that period, markets have changed considerably - heck, NZ has dropped and re-instated multiple destinations, like SIN and YVR.

Cheers,

C.


Sure, I agree the markets are different although the local markets were bigger 20 years ago than today still. NZ dropped down to just NRT in Japan, KIX has since restarted seasonally and HND has started.

It was more than 20 years since YVR was dropped, I think it was served 1985? Through 91? Something like that I think. As a weekly 742 via HNL or LAX.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3917
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:11 am

aerorobnz wrote:
Of course, all the local Chinese councils/Governments are the ones propping up the flights like CDU/XIY/SZX/CKG etc, If they still lose money at the end of their contracts the question is will they continue the investment or cut their losses. Airlines like CZ/MU will ride them out.

Yes, it is an interesting question - my thoughts:

- CKG, TJS and XIY would be vulnerable for the chop - mainly because the HNA Group is in the pits, but also because of limited connections with New Zealand.
- CTU has in-bound appeal as a tourist destination, and a New Zealand consulate. With a Star Alliance hub, if 3U drops AKL, CTU may be added to the CA-NZ JV.
- SZX is a tier-one city, and Asia's Silicon Valley - it will become more high-yielding, as its economy overtakes HKG's this year. HU's growing SZX hub will help.

This is also supported by Stats NZ's figures:

- Sichuan (CTU) had 3x the amount of visitors to New Zealand (~18,000) than CKG, TJS or XIY (~5,000 - 6,000), and is one of the strongest growing (13.3%).
- Guangdong is the second biggest source of Chinese visitors (~60,000) - of these, ~18,000 use CAN and ~8,000 use SZX, but CAN's numbers are declining.
- Zhejiang (HGH) and Jiangsu (NKG) are the fourth and fifth biggest provinces for visitor arrivals, respectively (~23,000) - perhaps these will see AKL flights soon.

See: https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-r ... ember-2017.

Cheers,

C.
Last edited by planemanofnz on Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3917
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2018

Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:18 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Sure, I agree the markets are different although the local markets were bigger 20 years ago than today still.

I'm not sure how this is relevant?

- Lower volumes today do not necessarily equate to lower yields - quality, not quantity, is what matters for profitable and sustainable tourism.
- Demand might have been stronger back then, but capacity has dropped more than demand has (KE with 1x daily jumbo, instead of 2x daily).

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ dropped down to just NRT in Japan, KIX has since restarted seasonally and HND has started.

So Japan, which sends the same amount of tourists here as Korea (approximately) has up to 3x daily flights, whereas Korea has just one.

This just proves my point that there is most definitely an opportunity for OZ and/or NZ to give KE some competition on the AKL - ICN route.

Cheers,

C.
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