Newbiepilot
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:57 pm

trex8 wrote:
Anyone have some numbers for the 747-8 and 777F of how the cost per ton kilometer or whatever the cargo CASM equivalent is compares? Trip cost clearly must be less for the 777.


I think I remember hearing from Atlas when they bought Southern that the 747-8F and 777F complement each other. I think they said that the 777 was excellent at nonstop express flights out and back from a hub whereas the 747-8 was better at heavy lifting in the traditional circular freight routes. An example was HKG-CVG nonstop works on the 777 well whereas the 747 does HKG-ICN-NRT-ANC-CVG and back picking up cargo along the way. The airplanes fit in different types of networks.

It is also worth noting that the density of cargo differs significantly. I think I heard that the 747 does heavy freight better. It also has the nose door for flexibility. The 777 does lightweight express freight well. It depends if the airline is flying produce/vegetables/wine or amazon packages when deciding what is best. CASM doesn’t really make sense in the freight world since not all freight is the same density like passengers are assumed to be.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:59 pm

qf789 wrote:
Along with this new order the backlog is now 25. At a rate of 6 frames per year that is now 4 years of production

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... f180968606


And with UPS taking delivery of all aircraft by the end of 2022, this means there are just 5 available production slots left until 2023. Unless Boeing will increase production rate again, something they are not intending for now.

airtechy wrote:
Is Boeing even capable of building a 748-i at this point? I would think that at this point the "I" unique suppliers have been told "no more".

It's still on the price list Boeings web page, so I would think Boeing can accept an order for the 747-8i. But the price has to be right, no large discounts can be applied, so IMO the chance of a new 748i order is very slim.

na wrote:
CFRPwingALbody wrote:
(And this is a blow to Airbus, they don't have any new build freighter that sells.)

Because UPS placed a small 4-plane add-on on order for the 767F-oldie? Come on. Thats said, the A330F isn´t selling well, we can agree on that. But if anything this order is a blow to the 777F program.

Converting 14 options on the 747-8F is neither a blow to Airbus nor to the 777F. Was there even a competition for this order? I don't think so, that battle was over after the initial order.

Having said that, it seems UPS hasn't acquired any new options for 747-8Fs, so the competition for replacing 744Fs and MD11Fs can start from scratch. A333P2Fs and 777Fs (maybe based on the 777-8 by that that time) will be in the race again. But that's for quite a bit later.
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keesje
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:00 pm

That's a great order for the 748 :bigthumbsup:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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N14AZ
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:03 pm

Revelation wrote:
The real big blow to Airbus was when UPS walked away from A380F. That was a kill shot. But that is old news now, and the world has moved on.

Do you hear it as well? I am currently in Beijing but I can clearly hear something like :banghead: every five seconds.

Hmmm, I think it’s coming from the West, somewhere in France... I am not sure but I think it means “we had a firm order for 10 units plus 10 options that would have helped us a lot right now to keep up production. We extended the runway in XFW, compensated farmers to make it possible...
but: we messed up glouriously... :banghead:

That being said: congratulations to UPS and Boeing, long live the queen!
 
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N14AZ
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:06 pm

N14AZ wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The real big blow to Airbus was when UPS walked away from A380F. That was a kill shot. But that is old news now, and the world has moved on.

Do you hear it as well? I am currently in Beijing but I can clearly hear something like :banghead: every five seconds.

Hmmm, I think it’s coming from the West, somewhere in France... I am not sure but I think it means “we had a firm order for 10 units plus 10 options that would have helped us a lot right now to keep up production. We extended the runway in XFW, compensated farmers to make it possible...
but: we messed up glouriously... :banghead:

That being said: congratulations to UPS and Boeing, long live the queen!


PS.: ... and the 767 :-)
 
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Polot
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:09 pm

Eh, there were a lot of rumors at the time that UPS was not really super interested in the A380F and ordered it to get out of their A300F commitment they knew they did not want (in other words, performing the “kick the can down the road” strategy). Losing FedEx (which occurred before UPS) was a bigger blow to the A380F, although Airbus had basically indefinitely delayed it to sort out the lax issues.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:13 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Is 150 747-8 enough to justify the development of the 747-8?


This question presupposes that the only valid justification of the development costs are in the sales of the actual aircraft.

By the time the -8 was being developed, Boeing had already decided that smaller long-range aircraft were the way to go. The development costs for the 747-8 provided 3 strategic advantages that are a part of the overall value of the program.

1) It provided pricing pressure on the A-380 which prevented Airbus from recouping the resources they poured into the program.
2) It was a relatively inexpensive hedge against Airbus being right and the market going towards VLA aircraft.
3) It delayed the costs associated with shutting down the line, perhaps by decades.
 
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nikeson13
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:16 pm

Looked at the routes these 748s have been flying and thought i should post them.
As newbiepilot was saying about Atlas, UPS has been doing the same type of heavy lifting freight routes as Atlas.
SDF-ANC-SZX-ANC-SDF
SDF-ANC-HKG-ANC-SDF
SDF-ANC-INC-HKG-ANC-SDF (Wed only)
SDF-DXB-SZX-ANC-SDF (Sat only)
SDF-ANC-SDF
Some really long and interesting routes. UPS has 6 20+ yr-old 744s around, would not surprise me to see a follow-up order after this one.
Nikolas
 
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william
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:29 pm

So what are the payload weights for a 747-8F and 777F? Other than the nose door on the 747 one would think the payload capability should be the same.Yes, the 747 is essentially paid for, and maybe Boeing can sell it cheaper than a 777F. Some of the advantages to twin over quad for airlines are maintenance and efficiency. One would think cargo companies would think the same way too since it effects the bottom line.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:37 pm

Added to the 747-777 question, how quickly could an airline acquire a new 777 at this point? A new 747 could presumably be had by 2022.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:05 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
Added to the 747-777 question, how quickly could an airline acquire a new 777 at this point? A new 747 could presumably be had by 2022.

It looks like there are still slots (5?), in 747-8 production line, available before 2022, so in principle, an earlier delivery is possible.

If one were to be pedantic, and the firing order as mentioned in the thread:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382493
is still having only 4 frames for now, one might speculate that provisionally, a slot could be obtained even for 2018 manufacture.
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estorilm
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:09 pm

I hate to "go there" - but am I the only one who thinks that Airbus was kinda hoping an order like this might not take place (ever) for the -8i... forcing Boeing to close production and almost certainly sealing the fate of their only VLA and (kinda) 380 competitor? I'm talking in a few years of course, and pax-model-only implications obviously.

The idea being that by the time forecast hub congestion (yeah, we all know how that worked out last time) actually occurs, the 380 would be in a prime position to fill that gap, almost exclusively on some routes (as well discussed in the EK purchase thread lately).

I'm not really sure it matters, since the 380 retains a significant advantage in most stats, yet was still almost extinct as of a week ago. Just something to consider.. with the production line remaining open till the "hub congestion" time-frame now, Boeing at least has the option of playing around with the 747 in a few years if some drastic new market for the VLA suddenly opens up. Of course it would require some serious mods to the -8i over relatively small adjustments on the 380 to make them competitive (much like comparing the MAX line to the 32xNEOs a few years down the road).

Or maybe I'm crazy and this is a non-issue, the 747 simply being relegated to a freighter for the remainder of her years (which is certainly better than nothing at all!) Just curious what everyone else thinks. :)
 
bigjku
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:18 pm

estorilm wrote:
I hate to "go there" - but am I the only one who thinks that Airbus was kinda hoping an order like this might not take place (ever) for the -8i... forcing Boeing to close production and almost certainly sealing the fate of their only VLA and (kinda) 380 competitor? I'm talking in a few years of course, and pax-model-only implications obviously.

The idea being that by the time forecast hub congestion (yeah, we all know how that worked out last time) actually occurs, the 380 would be in a prime position to fill that gap, almost exclusively on some routes (as well discussed in the EK purchase thread lately).

I'm not really sure it matters, since the 380 retains a significant advantage in most stats, yet was still almost extinct as of a week ago. Just something to consider.. with the production line remaining open till the "hub congestion" time-frame now, Boeing at least has the option of playing around with the 747 in a few years if some drastic new market for the VLA suddenly opens up. Of course it would require some serious mods to the -8i over relatively small adjustments on the 380 to make them competitive (much like comparing the MAX line to the 32xNEOs a few years down the road).

Or maybe I'm crazy and this is a non-issue, the 747 simply being relegated to a freighter for the remainder of her years (which is certainly better than nothing at all!) Just curious what everyone else thinks. :)


The 77X is the competitor for passengers not the 747.
 
estorilm
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:38 pm

bigjku wrote:
estorilm wrote:
I hate to "go there" - but am I the only one who thinks that Airbus was kinda hoping an order like this might not take place (ever) for the -8i... forcing Boeing to close production and almost certainly sealing the fate of their only VLA and (kinda) 380 competitor? I'm talking in a few years of course, and pax-model-only implications obviously.

The idea being that by the time forecast hub congestion (yeah, we all know how that worked out last time) actually occurs, the 380 would be in a prime position to fill that gap, almost exclusively on some routes (as well discussed in the EK purchase thread lately).

I'm not really sure it matters, since the 380 retains a significant advantage in most stats, yet was still almost extinct as of a week ago. Just something to consider.. with the production line remaining open till the "hub congestion" time-frame now, Boeing at least has the option of playing around with the 747 in a few years if some drastic new market for the VLA suddenly opens up. Of course it would require some serious mods to the -8i over relatively small adjustments on the 380 to make them competitive (much like comparing the MAX line to the 32xNEOs a few years down the road).

Or maybe I'm crazy and this is a non-issue, the 747 simply being relegated to a freighter for the remainder of her years (which is certainly better than nothing at all!) Just curious what everyone else thinks. :)


The 77X is the competitor for passengers not the 747.

Good point - but in that case, wouldn't Boeing practically want to the 747 line to end in the progged 3-years or so, to allow expansion of the 777X and other developments? If the 777X is their future VLA, with a market which many believe to experience significant growth in the future, you'd think they would want to retain options to ramp-up if possible.

I mean many are forgetting Boeing has just as much tied up keeping their massive 747 infrastructure and assembly lines open as Airbus does their 380 - perhaps even more-so (in future real estate and resources, not program costs necessarily) since the 380 is a new program which was always expected to stick around for decades, while everyone expected the 747 to be gone fairly soon. Keeping those resources tied up for slow-rate production is great for those of us who want to see the queen of the skies remain airborne for the foreseeable future, but what does it REALLY mean for Boeing, and what are the implications for their (true) VLA heading moving forward?
 
PennPal
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:48 pm

Wonderful, wonderful, wonderful news!!
 
bigjku
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:32 pm

estorilm wrote:
bigjku wrote:
estorilm wrote:
I hate to "go there" - but am I the only one who thinks that Airbus was kinda hoping an order like this might not take place (ever) for the -8i... forcing Boeing to close production and almost certainly sealing the fate of their only VLA and (kinda) 380 competitor? I'm talking in a few years of course, and pax-model-only implications obviously.

The idea being that by the time forecast hub congestion (yeah, we all know how that worked out last time) actually occurs, the 380 would be in a prime position to fill that gap, almost exclusively on some routes (as well discussed in the EK purchase thread lately).

I'm not really sure it matters, since the 380 retains a significant advantage in most stats, yet was still almost extinct as of a week ago. Just something to consider.. with the production line remaining open till the "hub congestion" time-frame now, Boeing at least has the option of playing around with the 747 in a few years if some drastic new market for the VLA suddenly opens up. Of course it would require some serious mods to the -8i over relatively small adjustments on the 380 to make them competitive (much like comparing the MAX line to the 32xNEOs a few years down the road).

Or maybe I'm crazy and this is a non-issue, the 747 simply being relegated to a freighter for the remainder of her years (which is certainly better than nothing at all!) Just curious what everyone else thinks. :)


The 77X is the competitor for passengers not the 747.

Good point - but in that case, wouldn't Boeing practically want to the 747 line to end in the progged 3-years or so, to allow expansion of the 777X and other developments? If the 777X is their future VLA, with a market which many believe to experience significant growth in the future, you'd think they would want to retain options to ramp-up if possible.

I mean many are forgetting Boeing has just as much tied up keeping their massive 747 infrastructure and assembly lines open as Airbus does their 380 - perhaps even more-so (in future real estate and resources, not program costs necessarily) since the 380 is a new program which was always expected to stick around for decades, while everyone expected the 747 to be gone fairly soon. Keeping those resources tied up for slow-rate production is great for those of us who want to see the queen of the skies remain airborne for the foreseeable future, but what does it REALLY mean for Boeing, and what are the implications for their (true) VLA heading moving forward?


The 747 infrastructure has already been downsized to run towards 6 per year. IMHO the 77X isn’t going to run at the same pace the 77W ever did. The VLA market is going to become about being able to profitably build aircraft at lower paces than the 77W experienced. Hence the heavy investment in 77X automation for building. In short I don’t think you ever will need more room for the 77X at that facility. If they can build them at 5 per month for 10 years I think that would be more than enough.

Looking at things, assuming the map is right, the 77X will go into the space where the 787 surge line was. That would mean to me the 77W line closes down once you switch over creating space for a 797 line if you want.

In short space isn’t an issue until such time as you want to build way more 787 per month (not happening), 77X per moth (also not happening) or wanted to run two 797 family lines. I think the later is unlikely. I expect it to be spread to two if not three different locations. Though I expect Everett to be the first as its adjacent to the place the wings will get made.
 
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Stitch
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:46 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Is 150 747-8 enough to justify the development of the 747-8?


No, but that ship already sailed so.


CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Do more people agree that this is nice final order to end the production of the 747?


If anything, it's a positive sign for 747 production. If UPS feels they need to more than double the size of their 747 freighter fleet, their projections for cargo recovery are very aggressive. Which implies that other 747 freighter operators will also feel the need to expand and update their own 747 fleets.


trex8 wrote:
Anyone have some numbers for the 747-8 and 777F of how the cost per ton kilometer or whatever the cargo CASM equivalent is compares? Trip cost clearly must be less for the 777.


Per Boeing, compared to the 747-200F, the 777F has a 25% lower operating cost and the 747-8F has a 27% lower operating cost. Compared to the 747-400F, the 747-8F has a 14% lower operating cost.


william wrote:
So what are the payload weights for a 747-8F and 777F?


The 747-8F is rated for 133,000kg and the 777F is rated for 104,000kg though the airframe can support up to 107,000kg.


estorilm wrote:
(B)ut in that case, wouldn't Boeing practically want to the 747 line to end in the progged 3-years or so, to allow expansion of the 777X and other developments? If the 777X is their future VLA, with a market which many believe to experience significant growth in the future, you'd think they would want to retain options to ramp-up if possible.


Boeing knows the 747-8 Intercontinental will not compete with the 777-9 so it's a non-issue. For Boeing, the only model that matters going forward is the 747-8 freighter.
 
PC12Fan
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:39 am

Stitch wrote:
Boeing knows the 747-8 Intercontinental will not compete with the 777-9 so it's a non-issue. For Boeing, the only model that matters going forward is the 747-8 freighter.


As a long time 747 fan (been an admirer since I was in my single digits, and I'm 51 now) I painfully have to agree. The only hope for a 747-8i now is a BBJ version, which isn't as rediculous to imagine as an airline order for the Queen would be.
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:45 am

PC12Fan wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Boeing knows the 747-8 Intercontinental will not compete with the 777-9 so it's a non-issue. For Boeing, the only model that matters going forward is the 747-8 freighter.


As a long time 747 fan (been an admirer since I was in my single digits, and I'm 51 now) I painfully have to agree. The only hope for a 747-8i now is a BBJ version, which isn't as rediculous to imagine as an airline order for the Queen would be.

Sadly I agree the only 748i order might be a VIP plane. How much? ;) I think I could afford a few windows.

Lightsaber

ps, late edit:
I think this order will sustain the 748F until the next order.

I hope... I LOVE the 747 irrationally. But I also loved the L1011... Eh, there is no sustaining a production line forever.
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Max Q
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:41 am

Love the 747, the Queen of the skies


I think these orders are going to keep coming in for replacement and
expansion


There’s just nothing that can replace the unique capabilities
of this incredible aircraft

I think Boeing will be making them for a minimum of another decade, probably two
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


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speedbird52
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:52 am

Max Q wrote:
Love the 747, the Queen of the skies


I think these orders are going to keep coming in for replacement and
expansion


There’s just nothing that can replace the unique capabilities
of this incredible aircraft

I think Boeing will be making them for a minimum of another decade, probably two

While I see more 747-8F orders on the horizon and possibly a couple small -8i orders, there is no way I see any 747s being made past 2025
 
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APettyJ
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:41 am

flyPIT wrote:
APettyJ wrote:
Finally, a major expansion of the hub is to begin in 2019.
Source? Because as of now a runway will run through it. Unless you mean the complete relocation, which has been in the works for many years.

Image


Source for the UPS Intel? I work there. They have already begun preliminary site work. As was mentioned, the runway project has been suspended. A source for that is here: http://www.philly.com/philly/business/2 ... ?mobi=true


Major carriers, including American Airlines with a hub in Philadelphia, are flying bigger airplanes, packing more people on them, and phasing out small 50-seat regional jets, Cameron said in her office last week.

Takeoffs and landings at Philadelphia International have declined from 535,666 in 2005 to 411,368 last year. Passenger numbers have hovered around 30 million a year, although they ticked up in 2015 to 31.4 million.

The peak for Philadelphia passengers was 32.2 million in 2007, before the Wall Street collapse and global recession that followed.

Aircraft operations in Philadelphia - takeoffs and landings - are down 23 percent since the original expansion proposal was approved by the Federal Aviation Administration and sifted from 29 options considered in 2000.

"What that means is the driving need for the new runway is less than it was when we put the plan together," said Cameron, who became the airport's chief executive officer in January.

"Because the delays are not as bad as they were, because the takeoffs and landings are less, we really need to look at terminals. They are old, and they are small. And that's what people see," she said.

"At some point, a new runway will be needed. It's not needed today."
 
tvarad
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:15 am

estorilm wrote:
I hate to "go there" - but am I the only one who thinks that Airbus was kinda hoping an order like this might not take place (ever) for the -8i... forcing Boeing to close production and almost certainly sealing the fate of their only VLA and (kinda) 380 competitor? I'm talking in a few years of course, and pax-model-only implications obviously.

The idea being that by the time forecast hub congestion (yeah, we all know how that worked out last time) actually occurs, the 380 would be in a prime position to fill that gap, almost exclusively on some routes (as well discussed in the EK purchase thread lately).

I'm not really sure it matters, since the 380 retains a significant advantage in most stats, yet was still almost extinct as of a week ago. Just something to consider.. with the production line remaining open till the "hub congestion" time-frame now, Boeing at least has the option of playing around with the 747 in a few years if some drastic new market for the VLA suddenly opens up. Of course it would require some serious mods to the -8i over relatively small adjustments on the 380 to make them competitive (much like comparing the MAX line to the 32xNEOs a few years down the road).

Or maybe I'm crazy and this is a non-issue, the 747 simply being relegated to a freighter for the remainder of her years (which is certainly better than nothing at all!) Just curious what everyone else thinks. :)


I just don't think there's a future for the 747-8i after the 777-9X. It simply does not provide the step change that the A380 does over the latter. Boeing would probably do a 777-10X if it felt there was a need for such an aircraft.
 
bgm
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:40 am

There are going to be a lot of sticky bed sheets after this announcement. :duck:

Good to see some life breathed into the old dog.
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PixelPilot
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:20 am

For a big fan of freighters like myself, this in the best news on the the year.
I absolutely love it.
 
brindabella
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:18 am

Stitch wrote:
CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Is 150 747-8 enough to justify the development of the 747-8?


No, but that ship already sailed so.




CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Do more people agree that this is nice final order to end the production of the 747?


If anything, it's a positive sign for 747 production. If UPS feels they need to more than double the size of their 747 freighter fleet, their projections for cargo recovery are very aggressive. Which implies that other 747 freighter operators will also feel the need to expand and update their own 747 fleets.


trex8 wrote:
Anyone have some numbers for the 747-8 and 777F of how the cost per ton kilometer or whatever the cargo CASM equivalent is compares? Trip cost clearly must be less for the 777.


Per Boeing, compared to the 747-200F, the 777F has a 25% lower operating cost and the 747-8F has a 27% lower operating cost. Compared to the 747-400F, the 747-8F has a 14% lower operating cost.


william wrote:
So what are the payload weights for a 747-8F and 777F?


The 747-8F is rated for 133,000kg and the 777F is rated for 104,000kg though the airframe can support up to 107,000kg.


estorilm wrote:
(B)ut in that case, wouldn't Boeing practically want to the 747 line to end in the progged 3-years or so, to allow expansion of the 777X and other developments? If the 777X is their future VLA, with a market which many believe to experience significant growth in the future, you'd think they would want to retain options to ramp-up if possible.


Boeing knows the 747-8 Intercontinental will not compete with the 777-9 so it's a non-issue. For Boeing, the only model that matters going forward is the 747-8 freighter.


Hi Stitch,

1) IIRC the cost-overruns were charged to the Annual results at the time; so I assume that the 150-run (so far) might well be profitable.
What do you think?
2) For a l-o-o-o-ng time Boeing have been talking about the 747F replacement-cycle starting in 2018 (EG now). However should that come to pass, then the limit of 6/year may not be helpful.
I wonder if the 767F/KC-46A might have first dibs on the shared hangar space?

cheers
Billy
 
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cougar15
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:54 pm

Sorry, thread drift, but seeing as we are gradulating the queen, how did Qatar get theirs so quick, I completely missed that? Obviously the (political) issues they are facing with the neighbours since last year contributed, but it seems to me like they magically appeared out of nowhere. I was not aware that QR Cargo was planning to become a 748F operator in any mid term planning on their part.....? Not there one day & there the next.... I don't follow the production thread, where these NTU´s?
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na
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:13 pm

cougar15 wrote:
Sorry, thread drift, but seeing as we are gradulating the queen, how did Qatar get theirs so quick, I completely missed that? Obviously the (political) issues they are facing with the neighbours since last year contributed, but it seems to me like they magically appeared out of nowhere. I was not aware that QR Cargo was planning to become a 748F operator in any mid term planning on their part.....? Not there one day & there the next.... I don't follow the production thread, where these NTU´s?
Once again, congrads to 5X and long live the old girl

2 NTUs, yes, one being early ln. 1437 which was rejected by Atlas Air and stored for years, the other a 2016-built frame inbetween rumoured to go to Atlas Air. But Atlas went to acquire some used 744Fs instead last year. Btw, these were the very last 748F NTU´s.
 
2175301
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:00 pm

I actually predict that this is just the start of a new series of orders for new large freighters. I see another 15-20 years of production (and perhaps more), and even a potential rate increase to say 8 -10 per year for some of that. The reality is a lot of large freighters are getting old, and possible conversions are few and far between at this point. Boeing had long predicted that once the glut of existing and possible conversions was used up that there would be a long sustained market for the 748F (something I have posted on before a couple times). I believe we are just looking at the start.

Have a great day,
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:57 pm

How would a freighters based on the 777x (8 or 9) compare against the 748? That obviously could determine how long the 748 is produced. While the nose door is useful it may not be enough to keep production going.
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na
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:20 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
How would a freighters based on the 777x (8 or 9) compare against the 748? That obviously could determine how long the 748 is produced. While the nose door is useful it may not be enough to keep production going.


Its much too early to speculate. But I´ll try;-) I expect that Boeing will build a freighter based on the -8 sometime after 2025, mainly as a MD-11- and in the longer term from the late 2020s onwards as a replacement for then old 777Fs, plus for a part of 744F replacements. Much depends on how many orders will come in for the 748F and 777F in the next years, and if Air Cargo is going up over a longer period. If Boeing can achieve 6-12 new orders per year for the 748F over the next 5 years I think they´ll try to keep building the 748F until 2030 and perhaps beyond, supplemented by a 778F. And I think chances are good that Boeing can achieve these 6-12 748F-orders per year well into the 2020s, seeing that about 100 744Fs need to be replaced in the next decade, and particularly in the mid-20s. Even if only half of those would be replaced by 748Fs (which I think isnt a too optimistic scenario), it means that the Jumbo freighter will be produced until the late 20s.
 
bigjku
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:47 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
How would a freighters based on the 777x (8 or 9) compare against the 748? That obviously could determine how long the 748 is produced. While the nose door is useful it may not be enough to keep production going.


I posted this earlier....

“Right now you get about 30% more cargo by volume and weight out of a 748 than a 77F. My rough estimates are that the 778F should get rough 85% of the 748 volume and weight capability and it would be better on long segments. Hell there may be an argument to have the 779 be a freighter variant for high volume low weight routes. You would likely get almost all the volume capacity of a 748 but you trade weight for fuel quite a bit so I am not sure. Someone else could do that math better than I right now.”

The big issue for a freighter to move more volume in the 779 mold is the MTOW for the 779 is the same as 778 so your volume would go up but payload weight would go down.

I suspect that margin between empty weight and max loaded weight is what keeps the 748 going for a long time. You can trade a lot of gas for payload and still go useful distances. I am not sure the 778 can replace it 100%.
 
CX747
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:00 pm

The 747-8F looks set to play a major role with UPS over the next several decades. 28 747-8Fs is no joke and UPS is definitely in love with the 8F. Add on the 747-400F fleet and you are looking at a fleet of 41 747s. Think about that for a second. That is really not that far off from British Airway's 747 fleet at its peak!!!

We could even see additions to the UPS 747 fleet. The original 747-8F order allowed UPS to move their 747-400Fs onto routes previously operated by MD-11s. When the UPS 747-400Fs and MD-11s need replacing, UPS may very well open its checkbook to purchase additional 747-8Fs. The MD-11 fleet stands at 37, if little over half of those get replaced by 747-8Fs, that is a fleet of 45+ 747-8Fs!!!!

The other all cargo operators like Cargolux, Atlas, ABC, Silk Way will at some point have to replace their 747-400Fs. Having production run until at least 2022 drastically increases the odds of more 747 orders.
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SQ773
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:30 pm

Quite off topic, but in order to understand this decition better, has anyone any idea of when their MD11F will be retired?
 
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JBo
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:02 pm

dmg626 wrote:
Does UPS carry bulkier cargo than FedEx? Just wondering why this plane is a good fit for UPS but not at FedEx


FedEx has a larger fleet, so I would hazard a guess that it's about frequency vs. capacity.
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Stitch
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 8:26 pm

brindabella wrote:
1) IIRC the cost-overruns were charged to the Annual results at the time; so I assume that the 150-run (so far) might well be profitable. What do you think?


Yes, Boeing has incurred a number of write-downs due to the program being put in a Forward Loss position due to lack of orders. The last write-down was a year ago so it probably did not take into account UPS firming their options so these frames likely will not need to recover any remaining deferred production cost and therefore will have a positive impact on Boeing Commercial's numbers.



brindabella wrote:
2) For a l-o-o-o-ng time Boeing have been talking about the 747F replacement-cycle starting in 2018 (EG now). However should that come to pass, then the limit of 6/year may not be helpful.


Boeing studied returning the 747-8 to a one per month rate in 2019, but abandoned it in mid-2016 and continued with the rate reduction to the current one plane every two months. Suppliers could probably ramp back up to one per month relatively quickly, but that would likely be driven by a customer (or group of customers) committing to a large (24+ frames) order with delivery timeframes compressed enough to justify it.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:09 pm

Nose door notwithstanding, is there a difference between what can be loaded through the side door of the 747 and the 777?
 
trex8
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:18 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
Nose door notwithstanding, is there a difference between what can be loaded through the side door of the 747 and the 777?

777F door 120 in height x146in width, 747 134in width x 123in height. That extra 1 foot can be very useful angling in longer loads.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:19 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
How would a freighters based on the 777x (8 or 9) compare against the 748? That obviously could determine how long the 748 is produced. While the nose door is useful it may not be enough to keep production going.


Boeing probably won't announce a 777XF till they need to get more orders to keep the 777 line running at an efficient level. Every 747-8F built is a nail in the coffin of the possibility of an A380F program ever being restarted. With no A380F any A380 NEO stretched version would have to justify itself solely on passenger sales.

The 747 P to F market is going away. The 747F is being used mostly for long haul freight with high utilization. The factory freighters have lower zero fuel weight which means they can lift more fuel or more cargo than the conversions and go further. The retired passenger 747-400's will be parted out to keep existing 747-400F's running rather than being converted.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:31 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
RalXWB wrote:
Interesting that exactly 1 Airline is keeping the 747 line alive :stirthepot:


It is a little ironic how both large quads in production are relying on one airline to keep them alive.

One difference is that with the 747-8, it has unique cargo capability and no where near the competition that the A380 has. If the cargo market for UPS is improving sufficiently for them to exercise their options, I would not be surprised for DHL to follow suit and see another Polar/Atlas 747-8 order to be painted DHL yellow . Cargolux, Air Bridge, Cathay, Qatar, etc may also follow suit and order more 747-8Fs. I think lack of 747-8F orders has been because of weakness in the cargo market, not because of competition with other airplanes like the A380 has suffered from.


Those competitors to UPS just saw the backlog jump 2 years. That could push others on the fence to place before the backlog jumps even further.
 
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zululima
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:22 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Those competitors to UPS just saw the backlog jump 2 years. That could push others on the fence to place before the backlog jumps even further.


Enough of the backlog/production slots nonsense. There really is no such thing until production rate is at max. If some airline wants to order more than a few, Boeing will gladly increase the production rate. That's how they make money.
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cougar15
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:33 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
How would a freighters based on the 777x (8 or 9) compare against the 748? That obviously could determine how long the 748 is produced. While the nose door is useful it may not be enough to keep production going.


Boeing probably won't announce a 777XF till they need to get more orders to keep the 777 line running at an efficient level. Every 747-8F built is a nail in the coffin of the possibility of an A380F program ever being restarted. With no A380F any A380 NEO stretched version would have to justify itself solely on passenger sales.

The 747 P to F market is going away. The 747F is being used mostly for long haul freight with high utilization. The factory freighters have lower zero fuel weight which means they can lift more fuel or more cargo than the conversions and go further. The retired passenger 747-400's will be parted out to keep existing 747-400F's running rather than being converted.


Did Lufthansa not already indicate that they wish to retire their 748´s early (20s) , although this does make me wonder as LH usually flies planes to the end and I doubt there is any sort of second hand market for a 748i , except perhaps for operators like HiFly, or Air Atlanta. if these really are retired that early, would theiy get a P2F conversion, is such a program worth it, given the limited 748I feedstock?
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Spacepope
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:55 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:

The 747 P to F market is going away. The 747F is being used mostly for long haul freight with high utilization. The factory freighters have lower zero fuel weight which means they can lift more fuel or more cargo than the conversions and go further. The retired passenger 747-400's will be parted out to keep existing 747-400F's running rather than being converted.

That's a kind way to put it. There hasnt been a 744P2F conversion in years. The last two done, completed last year, were combis to full BDSF spec for the same airline. Basically the absolute least effort conversion possible. Those will probably be the last 747 conversions ever.

Upcoming we need to keep an eye on the A330 conversion ramp up, and to see if anyone actually starts to cut metal on the 777P2F program. The long rumored 787 freighter is the dark horse in the wide body freighter market.
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CX747
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:16 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
RalXWB wrote:
Interesting that exactly 1 Airline is keeping the 747 line alive :stirthepot:


It is a little ironic how both large quads in production are relying on one airline to keep them alive.

One difference is that with the 747-8, it has unique cargo capability and no where near the competition that the A380 has. If the cargo market for UPS is improving sufficiently for them to exercise their options, I would not be surprised for DHL to follow suit and see another Polar/Atlas 747-8 order to be painted DHL yellow . Cargolux, Air Bridge, Cathay, Qatar, etc may also follow suit and order more 747-8Fs. I think lack of 747-8F orders has been because of weakness in the cargo market, not because of competition with other airplanes like the A380 has suffered from.


Those competitors to UPS just saw the backlog jump 2 years. That could push others on the fence to place before the backlog jumps even further.


One of the factors we haven't discussed. It does add another layer of complexity for other operators who want 747s. This might lead competitors to jump in sooner rather than later. Bet no one thought it would be that hard to get a 747 before 2022!!!!! At that point, how will the current fleet of 747-400Fs look? 4 years older, with possibly 16,000 more flight hours and the subsequent number of landing cycles. That puts the youngest 747-400F at roughly 13 years old with an average of 52,000 hours. The oldest 747-400F would be 29 years old with close to 116,000 hours.
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Stitch
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:23 am

cougar15 wrote:
Did Lufthansa not already indicate that they wish to retire their 748´s early (20s)?


I think that as more Jens Flottau at AviationWeek looking for a headline. At the 2013 IATA conference, Lufthansa CEO Christoph Franz noted that once a twin became available in the 747-8 size category, LH would have to take a close look at such an aircraft because it is likely to be more efficient. He also noted that the airline was looking at the A350-900/1000 or a mix of Boeing 787-9/10X and the proposed 777-8X and -9X. As the 777-9 would be available in the early 2020s, Jens used that as the date that LH could start replacing 747-8s, even though at the time the article was written, LH had only taken delivery of 6 of their 19 and the 777-9 is about 80% of the size of the 747-8 in terms of floor space so not sure it is really in the "747-8 size category".

As we know, LH later ordered between 20 (Boeing) and 34 (Lufthansa) 777-9s and cancelled their 20 747-8 purchase options, but they also took delivery of all 19 747-8 they had on order.
 
na
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:31 am

CX747 wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:

It is a little ironic how both large quads in production are relying on one airline to keep them alive.

One difference is that with the 747-8, it has unique cargo capability and no where near the competition that the A380 has. If the cargo market for UPS is improving sufficiently for them to exercise their options, I would not be surprised for DHL to follow suit and see another Polar/Atlas 747-8 order to be painted DHL yellow . Cargolux, Air Bridge, Cathay, Qatar, etc may also follow suit and order more 747-8Fs. I think lack of 747-8F orders has been because of weakness in the cargo market, not because of competition with other airplanes like the A380 has suffered from.


Those competitors to UPS just saw the backlog jump 2 years. That could push others on the fence to place before the backlog jumps even further.


One of the factors we haven't discussed. It does add another layer of complexity for other operators who want 747s. This might lead competitors to jump in sooner rather than later. Bet no one thought it would be that hard to get a 747 before 2022!!!!! At that point, how will the current fleet of 747-400Fs look? 4 years older, with possibly 16,000 more flight hours and the subsequent number of landing cycles. That puts the youngest 747-400F at roughly 13 years old with an average of 52,000 hours. The oldest 747-400F would be 29 years old with close to 116,000 hours.


I know that the early-built ex-Cargolux 744Fs that UPS aquired a few years ago already have done between 105.000 and 115.000 hours now. That would mean the oldest 744Fs should be close to or even above 125.000 hours by 2022.
 
B-HOP
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:18 am

na wrote:
CX747 wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:

Those competitors to UPS just saw the backlog jump 2 years. That could push others on the fence to place before the backlog jumps even further.


One of the factors we haven't discussed. It does add another layer of complexity for other operators who want 747s. This might lead competitors to jump in sooner rather than later. Bet no one thought it would be that hard to get a 747 before 2022!!!!! At that point, how will the current fleet of 747-400Fs look? 4 years older, with possibly 16,000 more flight hours and the subsequent number of landing cycles. That puts the youngest 747-400F at roughly 13 years old with an average of 52,000 hours. The oldest 747-400F would be 29 years old with close to 116,000 hours.


I know that the early-built ex-Cargolux 744Fs that UPS aquired a few years ago already have done between 105.000 and 115.000 hours now. That would mean the oldest 744Fs should be close to or even above 125.000 hours by 2022.


The other two ex-EVA Air 744BDSF should also done a fair number of hours too and the new 8F could be a replacement too, I would see another 10 being bought to replaced some MD-11, placed on Asia Pacific market, as airport getting increasingly congested and slots suitable for the banks at the other end is hard to get.

Kev
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CX747
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:20 am

na wrote:
CX747 wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:

Those competitors to UPS just saw the backlog jump 2 years. That could push others on the fence to place before the backlog jumps even further.


One of the factors we haven't discussed. It does add another layer of complexity for other operators who want 747s. This might lead competitors to jump in sooner rather than later. Bet no one thought it would be that hard to get a 747 before 2022!!!!! At that point, how will the current fleet of 747-400Fs look? 4 years older, with possibly 16,000 more flight hours and the subsequent number of landing cycles. That puts the youngest 747-400F at roughly 13 years old with an average of 52,000 hours. The oldest 747-400F would be 29 years old with close to 116,000 hours.


I know that the early-built ex-Cargolux 744Fs that UPS aquired a few years ago already have done between 105.000 and 115.000 hours now. That would mean the oldest 744Fs should be close to or even above 125.000 hours by 2022.


Good to know. It shows just how hard some of these aircraft are used on a yearly basis. Demand in the cargo market is up over the past 6+ months. With that, so is the demand for 747s.

Within the last year, Atlas itself has placed (1) 747-400F with Yangtze, (3) 747-400Fs with Hong Kong Air Cargo, (2) 747-8F with Cathay Pacific and (1) additional 747-400F with DHL. The (2) 747-8Fs to Cathay are interesting as it shows the need for at least (2) additional 8F birds at my namesake.
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ltbewr
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:31 am

The A380F is likely too big to fit at some airports while even the largest 747 is no problem. The A380's may require special loading/unloading equipment and the 747 doesn't and can use existing package cans and pallets efficiently, maybe not so much the A380. The 747's they are buying may be a better balance for need and pricing for profit. UPS mx and pilots are already experienced with the 747, not so much with the A380. I am quite sure Boeing made a good deal that made financial sense for both Boeing and UPS that Airbus couldn't match. In any case, it means the 747 could be 45-50 years in production and that is a good thing.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: UPS announces order for 14 747-8F and 4 767F

Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:51 am

ltbewr wrote:
The A380F is likely too big to fit at some airports while even the largest 747 is no problem. The A380's may require special loading/unloading equipment and the 747 doesn't and can use existing package cans and pallets efficiently, maybe not so much the A380. The 747's they are buying may be a better balance for need and pricing for profit. UPS mx and pilots are already experienced with the 747, not so much with the A380. I am quite sure Boeing made a good deal that made financial sense for both Boeing and UPS that Airbus couldn't match. In any case, it means the 747 could be 45-50 years in production and that is a good thing.

Airbus couldn't match it because the A380F is vaporware. They have the A332F as their top end freighter and it simply is no competition in this order.
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