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CitizenJustin
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PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title?

Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:55 pm

According to the latest numbers, the gap between PEK and ATL are narrowing quickly. Do we see Atlanta’s crown coming to an end and if so, when? Dubai is also racing up to the top. If these rates continue, I don’t see any airports in the U.S. making the top 5 in maybe 5 years or so.

What say you all?
 
NichCage
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:00 pm

I think there is an possibly PEK could overtake ATL in the future. Keep in mind that Beijing is getting a second airport, so with SkyTeam airlines moving to the new airport PEK will no doubt handle a lot less passengers in the future. Star Alliance and other airlines will still stay at PEK, but passengers numbers will drop. So maybe it could happen, but with a new airport for Beijing it is less likely.
 
Noise
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:01 pm

Once the SkyTeam airlines leave PEK, the Star Alliance airlines will have more room to grow, expand and offer additional connections. That, in theory, can boost PEK's numbers even more.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:04 pm

BJS will very soon be fragmented when Daxing opens so volumes at PEK will certainly decline following this.
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LAX772LR
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:43 pm

Title is rather deceptive.

While PEK is growing at a higher rate, as it has for the better part of a decade... it is not "surpassing" ATL, nor really is it likely to do so any time soon. As mentioned above, the BJS market is about to be split down the middle, and without some extraordinary growth spurt by PEK or devastating event at ATL, PEK isn't likely to take the top title at all.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
ShinyAndChrome
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:49 pm

Noise wrote:
Once the SkyTeam airlines leave PEK, the Star Alliance airlines will have more room to grow, expand and offer additional connections. That, in theory, can boost PEK's numbers even more.


In theory, CA and other Star carriers can backfill the vacating SkyTeam capacity seat for seat and beyond. In practice, doing that while those same departing carriers move to a new airport down the road with extra space to grow themselves is unfeasible even by Chinese airline standards.
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:50 am

Thanks for the feedback, I appreciate it. However, the developing world is definitely where the next biggest will likely be. ATL can’t hold off double digit growth forever. I suspect the numbers will look much different in a decade.
 
YouGeeElWhy
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:02 am

Unlikely, ATL is expanding with more gates and a new runway. Only DWC or the new IST airport have a chance at surpassing ATL in the future, but I think that is pretty unlikely as the governments of India, Europe, China and the US are going to keep growth in check on airliners like EK/TK/QR. China and India are the only places that have the potential due to their domestic market, but China has a very advanced Highspeed rail network that will take load away from their airports, plus given how cheap large capital construction projects are in places like China and India they would just build new airports in their large cities in other locations of the city to better serve the locals (ex the Navi Mumbai or Daxing).

Not to be pedantic, but "busiest" means a lot of things to different people. Personally, the number of aircraft movements is a better sign of "busiest."
 
AAvgeek744
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:58 am

Noise wrote:
Once the SkyTeam airlines leave PEK, the Star Alliance airlines will have more room to grow, expand and offer additional connections. That, in theory, can boost PEK's numbers even more.


I disagree. Two airports will dilute any Star Alliance build-up, Daxing is going to be pretty big. PEK will lose pax for sure. I don't think they will surpass ATL for long before Daxing opens.
 
migair54
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:33 am

PEK is awesome, the development of the airport is huge and the numbers are huge, but the whole airspace is getting very difficult to handle, I personally think PEK will pass ATL because that will be a political boost for the chinese aviation, and I am sure the Chinese government will not let this opportunity go without making a lot of propaganda.

I don't think DXB will pass ATL ever, DXB is at the limit, EK or any other airline have lot of problems adding new flights, and some times DXB is quite empty but the way EK works they need the banks to connect flights, so we will not see a huge expansion.
DWC is developing very slowly, and with EK planning to move there not before 2025 I don't see DWC even close to the top until then, thereafter we will see, but EK has a lot of problems adding flights to places where they would like to, like China, India, Germany, France... but for sure we will see new destinations with the B787.
 
DDR
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:29 pm

I tend to agree with most of the other posters that PEK will not overtake ATL as the "busiest" airport since a second airport will be taking a large percentage of passengers, aircraft movements, etc. However, if you want to compare cities, then yes I can see Beijing having more total passengers, movements, etc., in maybe 5-10 years. According to wiki, PEK is currently the fifth busiest airport for aircraft movements.
 
SteelChair
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:53 pm

PEK has only 3 runways, ATL has 5, no way PEK ever surpasses ATL in operations imho.

Daxing, DWC, or the new Istanbul aiport probably will surpass ATL at some point in the future.
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:45 pm

The consensus seems to be that PEK won’t overtake ATL anytime soon, if ever. However, PEK only needs 10 million to do this according to 2016 stats. PEK’s 94mil catching up to ATL’s 104mil seems realistic.

Since no airport stays number 1 forever, if not PEK, what airport do you guys see taking the spot in the future?
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:47 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Title is rather deceptive.

While PEK is growing at a higher rate, as it has for the better part of a decade... it is not "surpassing" ATL, nor really is it likely to do so any time soon. As mentioned above, the BJS market is about to be split down the middle, and without some extraordinary growth spurt by PEK or devastating event at ATL, PEK isn't likely to take the top title at all.


Apologies about the title. Now that I look at it, you’re right. My bad :)
 
chrisp390
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:10 pm

Years ago, I think it was around 2012, the Chinese media was running a lot of propaganda and news saying it was imminent Beijing would become the worlds busiest. 6 years later and Atlanta is still number 1, and the Chinese media has quietly ignored this now.
 
yycdel
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:11 pm

CitizenJustin wrote:
The consensus seems to be that PEK won’t overtake ATL anytime soon, if ever. However, PEK only needs 10 million to do this according to 2016 stats. PEK’s 94mil catching up to ATL’s 104mil seems realistic.

Since no airport stays number 1 forever, if not PEK, what airport do you guys see taking the spot in the future?



DEL is growing very rapidly but they have a bit of catching up to do, if they can sustain the growth rate for a few years they have a good chance
 
usssla
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:14 pm

yycdel wrote:
CitizenJustin wrote:
The consensus seems to be that PEK won’t overtake ATL anytime soon, if ever. However, PEK only needs 10 million to do this according to 2016 stats. PEK’s 94mil catching up to ATL’s 104mil seems realistic.

Since no airport stays number 1 forever, if not PEK, what airport do you guys see taking the spot in the future?



DEL is growing very rapidly but they have a bit of catching up to do, if they can sustain the growth rate for a few years they have a good chance


Because in the recent 6 years, the annual growth rate for PEK is only about 3 %.
 
ShinyAndChrome
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:19 pm

If any airport is likely to exceed ATL, I’d have to put my money on DWC but only once operations from DXB fully cut over well into the 2020s at the earliest. I’d have a hard time imagining any airport in a multi-airport town taking the top spot any time soon. Daxing would have a better shot if PEK were to close.
 
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:23 pm

CitizenJustin wrote:
The consensus seems to be that PEK won’t overtake ATL anytime soon, if ever. However, PEK only needs 10 million to do this according to 2016 stats. PEK’s 94mil catching up to ATL’s 104mil seems realistic.

Since no airport stays number 1 forever, if not PEK, what airport do you guys see taking the spot in the future?

Tell that to the O'hare fans! :duck:


Seriously, the ORD/ATL dual is appropriate. ATL overtook ORD, then they tradded, then ATL was again on top and once ATL added a runway it was no competition.

ATL is gaining another runway, the 6th.
It wasn't until 1984 ATL had 4 runways.
It wasn't until 2006 it have 5 runways.
yea, that means it won't be until say 2025 for #6, but it will come.

ATL is adding gates too!

PEK needs more gates and runways. It will expand some with the existing infrastructure, but only so much.

In 2016, growth was only 5.6% and has slowed in general.
So a 10 million gap will take at least 2 years, but probably far more with ATL expansion.

So when or if is the question. With the new Beijing airport, I do not believe PEK will overtake ATL considering that wouldn't happen until after the 6th ATL runway. So the question is, when will the new Beijing airport (Daxing) overtake ATL. It won't be PEK. Not with a Daxing opening in September of 2019.

Lightsaber.
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lightsaber
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:31 pm

ShinyAndChrome wrote:
If any airport is likely to exceed ATL, I’d have to put my money on DWC but only once operations from DXB fully cut over well into the 2020s at the earliest. I’d have a hard time imagining any airport in a multi-airport town taking the top spot any time soon. Daxing would have a better shot if PEK were to close.

If LHR had a 3rd runway in a very multi-airport metropolitan area, it would overtake ATL.

Would DWC? I think so. But yes, in the mid-2020s at the earliest. I see EY and QR are struggling which will benefit TK and EK.

Speaking of TK, I could see the new Istanbul airport being #1 in 2025 too. Right now IST is limited to operating on one runway (of two cross runways). When the new airport opens, having two parallel runways will allow fast growth to be followed by a 3rd runway about few years later, we'll see fast growth. It will take time, but phase 1 has a main terminal with capacity of 90 million pax/year and a secondary terminal that should accommodate another 5 million or so pax/year.

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N14AZ
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:37 pm

SteelChair wrote:
PEK has only 3 runways, ATL has 5, no way PEK ever surpasses ATL in operations imho.

There were specific plans to add a fourth runway on the eastern side but I am not sure if they are already planning to implement this plan.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:12 pm

DDR wrote:
I tend to agree with most of the other posters that PEK will not overtake ATL as the "busiest" airport since a second airport will be taking a large percentage of passengers, aircraft movements, etc. However, if you want to compare cities, then yes I can see Beijing having more total passengers, movements, etc., in maybe 5-10 years. According to wiki, PEK is currently the fifth busiest airport for aircraft movements.


Cities is an unfavorable comparison for ATL because of ATL’s isolation and dominance of greater Atlanta. Heck, Chicago is well ahead of ATL on movements today and similar in passengers, and if you use a (admittedly artificial) statistic like “within 80 miles of downtown” to capture MKE well ahead on passengers too.
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LAX772LR
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:37 am

yycdel wrote:
DEL is growing very rapidly but they have a bit of catching up to do, if they can sustain the growth rate for a few years they have a good chance

Good chance?? ...how about no chance in hell. :rotfl:
DEL would need to quadruple its amount of runways, especially with its current ops rules, to have even an inkling of a chance.



lightsaber wrote:
Seriously, the ORD/ATL dual is appropriate. ATL overtook ORD, then they tradded, then ATL was again on top and once ATL added a runway it was no competition.

Depends on what stat you're using:
ORD has never regained the title of world's busiest in pax, since ATL first took it in 1998. ATL's had it for 20yrs uninterrupted.
They've swapped back and forth in terms of number of operations though.


Cubsrule wrote:
Cities is an unfavorable comparison for ATL because of ATL’s isolation and dominance of greater Atlanta. Heck, Chicago is well ahead of ATL on movements today and similar in passengers, and if you use a (admittedly artificial) statistic like “within 80 miles of downtown” to capture MKE well ahead on passengers too.

Not that Chicago benefits from changing that, as London would hilariously dwarf them both.
As would New York and to a lesser degree, Tokyo.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: PEK surpassing ATL for busiest title

Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:01 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
yycdel wrote:
DEL is growing very rapidly but they have a bit of catching up to do, if they can sustain the growth rate for a few years they have a good chance

Good chance?? ...how about no chance in hell. :rotfl:
DEL would need to quadruple its amount of runways, especially with its current ops rules, to have even an inkling of a chance.



lightsaber wrote:
Seriously, the ORD/ATL dual is appropriate. ATL overtook ORD, then they tradded, then ATL was again on top and once ATL added a runway it was no competition.

Depends on what stat you're using:
ORD has never regained the title of world's busiest in pax, since ATL first took it in 1998. ATL's had it for 20yrs uninterrupted.
They've swapped back and forth in terms of number of operations though.

What specific reasons did ORD lose its title, and what prevented them from gaining it back? ATL’s numbers are incredible, so is it simply Delta routing the majority of their traffic through ATL?


Cubsrule wrote:
Cities is an unfavorable comparison for ATL because of ATL’s isolation and dominance of greater Atlanta. Heck, Chicago is well ahead of ATL on movements today and similar in passengers, and if you use a (admittedly artificial) statistic like “within 80 miles of downtown” to capture MKE well ahead on passengers too.

Not that Chicago benefits from changing that, as London would hilariously dwarf them both.
As would New York and to a lesser degree, Tokyo.

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