wedgetail737
Topic Author
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Question about Rural and Suburbia Airport Potential

Sat Feb 03, 2018 8:48 pm

Hello, everyone!

I have a pretty packed question for you all. This is biased toward the airports in the Western US.

We have seen the airline industry evolve very significantly over the years, which were good and bad. We've seen many rural airports like MOD, VIS, LMT, CEC, etc. lose most or all of their airline service. We have seen others like SBA, SBP, STS, BLI, etc. see modest to significant increases in airline service.

My question is this:

Will actions regarding PAE set a precedence for possible new or reinstated airline service to suburbia airports again like HIO (for PDX), Livermore, CA; Concord, CA; Tacoma Narrows, WA; Pierce County, WA; Coos Bay, OR, etc.? We've seen new service to previously untapped airports like Ft. Collins, CO, Ogden, UT and Punta Gorda, FL.

I just want to know what you all think.

Thank you!
 
Themotionman
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Re: Question about Rural and Suburbia Airport Potential

Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:17 am

A suburban Airport has to offer something different to what is offered already at the primary airport. PAE has a geographical advantage over SEA for a large enough population to support all these new flights. If anything I bet airports like CLM will see new service. Not necessarily suburban airports but airports that will pull rural traffic away from the hubs.
 
32andBelow
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Re: Question about Rural and Suburbia Airport Potential

Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:28 am

PAE is in the middle of a huge city. Many of those cities you listed are in the middle of nowhere
 
Wingtips56
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Re: Question about Rural and Suburbia Airport Potential

Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:31 am

Coos Bay OR is served through the neighboring North Bend Airport (OTH), although service is limited.

A number of the airports you reference would probably only be able to support 19-50 seat airplanes, and there isn't much available in the low end of that capacity. And those small-fleet carriers are the ones that have the most financial troubles and depend largely on EAS and other subsidies. That or they are more likely to attract the 8-seater Boutiques and Surfs.

MOD, VIS, CEC and LMT have been left high and dry by failed carriers, even with EAS subsidy. CEC is pending reinstatement, however, with AEAS subsidy going to Contour Airlines, with planned flights to OAK. It was anticipated for spring, but there hasn't been any update in the local news for months, so I don't know how that is going. OO said CEC couldn't handle the CRJ, and OO has nothing smaller or more nimble. Not sure about the OO claim; Contour Airlines says they'll bring in the ERJ-135. I have no idea if that is more nimble than the CRJ, but the size is more appropriate to the market. OAK is not the best choice, however, for many in the community.

The VIS governing authority decided to suspend their EAS application for a few years, and I doubt anything can work there without it. They will revisit that in a few years. There was a thread on that subject somewhere here in A.net some time back.

Concord CA (CCR) and Livermore CA are just too close to OAK and the WN juggernaut to be very successful, never mind SFO. CCR has had service in the past, but the jet noise, even with the BAe-146 is a problem for that neighborhood.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
Rdh3e
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Re: Question about Rural and Suburbia Airport Potential

Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:51 am

Secondary airports like PAE will thrive wherever the primary airport is already at capacity. SEA is out of gates, therefore PAE is essentially the proxy for airlines adding more SEA capacity.

Markets lime SBA have thrived for completely different reasons than the reasons places lime MOD have failed. MOD etc rely on people fly ing from their community outward. Places lime SBA have thriving inbound tourism markets which keep them viable.

I doubt the PAE opening portends positive momentum for many more, if any, other secondary airports.
 
drdisque
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Re: Question about Rural and Suburbia Airport Potential

Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:07 am

I think this is two separate discussions - one is rural airports and one is secondary airports. They're quite different.

Future air service at secondary airports really is in the hands of the airport operator and the surrounding community. For example, I have little doubt that CCR could support scheduled service if the airport actively pursued it. However, they don't have the facilities and the community doesn't want a big airline terminal in their town, so they don't.

Rural airports, especially ones within 4 hours driving distance of a major airport and those without a large company headquarters or university in their town, or some sort of tourism appeal, are in a death spiral.
 
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KLMatSJC
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Re: Question about Rural and Suburbia Airport Potential

Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:20 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
We have seen others like SBA, SBP, STS, BLI, etc. see modest to significant increases in airline service.


Those airports each serve a city that can financially (wealth of business, locals, and tourism) support a large increase in service. All of those cities are also more than 1:30 away from the next commercial airport. Each of the airports you listed below don't abide by one of these conditions.
A318/19/20/21/21N A332/3 A343/5 A388 B712 B722 B732/3/4/7/8/9/9ER B744/4M B752/3 B762ER/3/3ER/4ER B77E/L/W B788 CRJ2/7/9 Q400 EMB-120 ERJ-135/140/145/145XR/175 DC-10-10 MD-82/83/88/90

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wedgetail737
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Re: Question about Rural and Suburbia Airport Potential

Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:32 am

32andBelow wrote:
PAE is in the middle of a huge city. Many of those cities you listed are in the middle of nowhere


Not really, SEA is much closer to Downtown Seattle, whereas PAE is a roughly 40 miles north of Seattle. Everett is not a huge city, but there is a lot of people between downtown Seattle and, say, Arlington, WA.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Question about Rural and Suburbia Airport Potential

Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:35 am

drdisque wrote:
I think this is two separate discussions - one is rural airports and one is secondary airports. They're quite different.

Future air service at secondary airports really is in the hands of the airport operator and the surrounding community. For example, I have little doubt that CCR could support scheduled service if the airport actively pursued it. However, they don't have the facilities and the community doesn't want a big airline terminal in their town, so they don't.

Rural airports, especially ones within 4 hours driving distance of a major airport and those without a large company headquarters or university in their town, or some sort of tourism appeal, are in a death spiral.


CCR once had jet service to LAX when PSA began service. USAIr kept the service until they decided to retire the BAe-146's. Previous to PSA, WestAir flew CCR-SFO using Twin Otters and Cessna 402's.

When PSA/USAir served CCR, they created a terminal just outside of the largest FBO. They were made from several double-wides. In my opinion, I think CCR could sustain Q400 service.
 
FATFlyer
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Re: Question about Rural and Suburbia Airport Potential

Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:59 am

Modesto appears to be giving up the airport's Part 139 Airport Operating Certificate. The City Council will vote Tuesday to surrender the certificate to the FAA. Two years ago they had the Part 139 Certificate placed on inactive status. That allowed MOD to save money by reducing ARFF to on-call status. But the airport is looking to further reduce expenses now by giving up the AOC completely.

Surrendering the Certificate means MOD would need to pass a new FAA inspection and update the Airport Certification Manual before any airline could restart service there.
http://atg.modestogov.com/sirepubcounci ... 607403.PDF
http://www.modbee.com/news/article193601469.html

But SCK is only 25 miles away from Modesto. Besides the current Allegiant service, SCK is rumored to be getting close to seeing SCK-LAX flights supported by SCASD grant funds. Additionally SCK has interest from Volaris for GDL flights. SCK is scheduled to start construction in the next few months on a terminal expansion that will be built as a "shell" to ultimately be finished as either an expanded passenger area or as a FIS for international flights. Basically SCK is replacing MOD for area passenger services.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Question about Rural and Suburbia Airport Potential

Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:13 am

Noise and curfews will kill any significant increase of airline traffic at small local airports. I can imagine the protests from all the NIMBY's.

A huge percentage of traffic at most hubs are short domestic routes, most of which aren't connecting to an international flight. Once electric propulsion arrives we'll see airlines avoiding the big hubs for this domestic traffic. We'll see true point to point routes open up of small secondary airport to small secondary airport.

The current large airports will remain for medium haul and international traffic. With reduced feeder flights.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Question about Rural and Suburbia Airport Potential

Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:36 am

Thank you to all of those who contributed comments. Please keep them coming!
 
KD5MDK
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Re: Question about Rural and Suburbia Airport Potential

Sun Feb 04, 2018 5:38 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Noise and curfews will kill any significant increase of airline traffic at small local airports. I can imagine the protests from all the NIMBY's.

A huge percentage of traffic at most hubs are short domestic routes, most of which aren't connecting to an international flight. Once electric propulsion arrives we'll see airlines avoiding the big hubs for this domestic traffic. We'll see true point to point routes open up of small secondary airport to small secondary airport.

The current large airports will remain for medium haul and international traffic. With reduced feeder flights.

What is your definition of short for this analysis? Is it less than 200 miles, less than 400, less than 1k? Just trying to picture what that means.
Also, what percentage are you thinking of when you say huge? To me that could mean anything from 20% to 70%, which is a very large variance.

For example, if someone in Memphis needed to get to LA, would you call that medium haul? Would they have a connection likely?
How about between Charleston SC & Pittsburgh? Do they fly P2P? Do they connect in ATL or CLT on larger aircraft?
I'm not disagreeing with you necessarily, just trying to picture exactly what you're expecting.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Question about Rural and Suburbia Airport Potential

Sun Feb 04, 2018 6:28 am

KD5MDK wrote:
What is your definition of short for this analysis? Is it less than 200 miles, less than 400, less than 1k? Just trying to picture what that means.
Also, what percentage are you thinking of when you say huge? To me that could mean anything from 20% to 70%, which is a very large variance.

For example, if someone in Memphis needed to get to LA, would you call that medium haul? Would they have a connection likely?
How about between Charleston SC & Pittsburgh? Do they fly P2P? Do they connect in ATL or CLT on larger aircraft?
I'm not disagreeing with you necessarily, just trying to picture exactly what you're expecting.

By short I mean 500nm between airports. i predict this will be the rough initial range limit of electric aircraft.

These short routes most people call feeder flights if one of the points is much smaller. People think feeder flights are just bringing people to the hub to then travel international. I estimate around half of the passengers, the hub is actually their final destination.

I then expect half of these flights to travel to a smaller airport within 50nm of the current hub. A good example would be London City airport electric aircraft could get relaxed curfews.

There are thousands of small general aviation airports scattered in very close proximity to eachother in the US. I dare say you could fly from east coast to west coast with no individual trip greater than 50nm.

Quite a few major hubs in the US have a general aviation airport that is actually in a better location in terms of city access. They simply can't support the noise that big airlines create.

Once electric aircraft can travel between points 1000nm apart we will see an exponential growth of very thin point to point routes. We will see flights from secondary airport to small general aviation airports.

I then expect certification of single pilot aircraft up to 50 seats with a very advanced autopilot. The average aircraft size in airlines will decrease significantly and the quantity increase significantly.
 
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rosecityspotter
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Re: Question about Rural and Suburbia Airport Potential

Wed Jun 06, 2018 6:38 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
PAE is in the middle of a huge city. Many of those cities you listed are in the middle of nowhere


Not really, SEA is much closer to Downtown Seattle, whereas PAE is a roughly 40 miles north of Seattle. Everett is not a huge city, but there is a lot of people between downtown Seattle and, say, Arlington, WA.


From my experience having driven in the Seattle area probably a hundred times or so, even 10-15 flights a day at KPAE would be very a beneficial option, especially for anyone north of approximately Northgate area. Would save at least an hour commute during rush hour times.

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