FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3M FLL-BIM MAR 1.3>1.0 APR 1.3>0.5 MAY 1.3>0.6 JUN 1.3>0.6 JUL 1.3>0.6 AUG 1.3>0.6 SEP 1.3>0.6 OCT 1.3>0.6
3M FLL-FPO APR 3>4 MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4

7H ANC-FAI MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3

7Q HPN-SRQ SEP 0.3>0.0

9X AOO-PIT MAY 0.3>1.7 JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7
9X BFD-PIT MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 2>4
9X BWI-DUJ MAY 0.4>2 JUN 0>2 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2
9X BWI-JST MAY 0.4>2 JUN 0>2 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2
9X DFW-ELD MAY 0.5>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3
9X DFW-HOT MAY 0.5>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3
9X DFW-HRO MAY 0.9>1.6 JUN 0.7>1.6 JUL 0.7>1.6 AUG 0.7>1.6 SEP 0.7>1.5
9X DUJ-PIT MAY 0.6>4 JUN 0>4 JUL 0>4 AUG 0>4 SEP 0>4
9X JST-PIT MAY 0.6>4 JUN 0>4 JUL 0>4 AUG 0>4 SEP 0>4
9X MDT-PIT MAY 0.3>1.7 JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7

AA CLT-BHM MAY 8>7
AA CLT-BNA MAY 8>7
AA CLT-BUF MAY 4>3
AA CLT-CAE MAY 7>6
AA CLT-CVG MAY 7>6
AA CLT-DTW MAY 8>7
AA CLT-FAY MAY 6>7
AA CLT-FLO MAY 4>5
AA CLT-GSO MAY 9>8
AA CLT-IAH MAY 7>6
AA CLT-IND MAY 9>8
AA CLT-JAN MAY 4>3
AA CLT-LGA MAY 13>10
AA CLT-MCI MAY 5>4
AA CLT-MLB MAY 3>2
AA CLT-OAJ MAY 7>5
AA CLT-PVD MAY 5>4
AA CLT-SAN MAY 2>3
AA CLT-SEA MAY 1.9>3
AA CLT-SRQ MAY 3>4
AA DCA-BTV MAY 4>3
AA DCA-CLT MAY 10>9
AA DCA-ORF MAY 2.0>3
AA DCA-TPA MAY 4>5
AA DFW-BHM MAY 5>6
AA DFW-BOS MAY 8>7
AA DFW-BWI MAY 4>3
AA DFW-CHS MAY 2>3
AA DFW-CMH MAY 5>4
AA DFW-CMI MAY 1.1>1.9
AA DFW-DTW MAY 6>5
AA DFW-FLL MAY 6>5
AA DFW-IAH MAY 9>10
AA DFW-MSP MAY 6>5
AA DFW-OMA MAY 5>4
AA DFW-PSP MAY 1.1>2
AA DFW-RIC MAY 3>1.8
AA DFW-SFO MAY 10>9
AA DFW-SHV MAY 7>5
AA DFW-SJC MAY 5>4
AA DFW-SJT MAY 3>4
AA DFW-TPA MAY 7>6
AA DFW-TYR MAY 5>4
AA DFW-ZCL JUN 0.8>0.7 JUL 1.0>0.8
AA DTW-LGA MAY 6>4
AA ILM-LGA MAY 2.0>3
AA JFK-BOS MAY 3>5
AA JFK-CLE MAY 1.1>2.0
AA JFK-DFW MAY 1.9>1.0
AA JFK-ORF MAY 1.1>2
AA LAX-DEN MAY 4>3
AA LAX-DFW MAY 14>13
AA LAX-IND MAY 1.1>1.9
AA LAX-JFK MAY 13>12
AA LAX-MCO MAY 3>4
AA LAX-RDU MAY 1.1>2
AA LAX-STL MAY 3>2
AA LGA-RDU MAY 7>6
AA MIA-CLT MAY 8>7
AA MIA-MSP MAY 3>2
AA MIA-SAN MAY 1.8>1.1
AA ORD-ATW MAY 2>3
AA ORD-BNA MAY 9>8
AA ORD-BUF MAY 4>5
AA ORD-CHO MAY 3>2
AA ORD-CLE MAY 7>6
AA ORD-CMH MAY 9>8
AA ORD-CMI MAY 6>5
AA ORD-DFW MAY 14>13
AA ORD-EWR MAY 7>5
AA ORD-FLL MAY 4>1.9
AA ORD-FWA MAY 4>3
AA ORD-ICT MAY 4>3
AA ORD-IND MAY 9>8
AA ORD-LAN MAY 3>1.9
AA ORD-MEM MAY 3>4
AA ORD-MKE MAY 5>4
AA ORD-MSY MAY 3>1.8
AA ORD-PBI MAY 3>1.8
AA ORD-PDX MAY 1.0>1.7
AA ORD-RSW MAY 4>3
AA ORD-SAN MAY 5>4
AA ORD-SEA MAY 4>5
AA ORD-SFO MAY 6>5
AA ORD-SLC MAY 3>4
AA ORD-SNA MAY 4>5
AA ORD-STL MAY 7>6
AA ORD-SYR MAY 5>4
AA ORD-TUL MAY 3>2
AA ORD-TYS MAY 2>3
AA ORD-XNA MAY 5>4
AA ORD-YYZ MAY 6>5
AA PHL-BOS MAY 11>10
AA PHL-BTV MAY 6>5
AA PHL-BWI MAY 3>2
AA PHL-CHO MAY 3>1.9
AA PHL-CVG MAY 6>5
AA PHL-IPT MAY 3>2.0
AA PHL-LAS MAY 4>3
AA PHL-LGA MAY 4>6
AA PHL-MDT MAY 6>5
AA PHL-MSN MAY 0.9>1.8
AA PHL-MSP MAY 4>3
AA PHL-RDU MAY 8>6
AA PHL-SAN MAY 3>1.9
AA PHL-SCE MAY 5>4
AA PHL-TPA MAY 4>5
AA PHL-TYS MAY 2>3
AA PHL-YUL MAY 6>5
AA PHX-BUR MAY 5>4
AA PHX-DFW MAY 11>12
AA PHX-DRO MAY 3>1.9
AA PHX-DTW MAY 4>3
AA PHX-GEG MAY 1.1>2.0
AA PHX-LBB MAY 1.9>1.0
AA PHX-MAF MAY 1.9>1.0
AA PHX-MCO MAY 3>4
AA PHX-MEM MAY 1.1>2
AA PHX-PSP MAY 7>6
AA PHX-RNO MAY 4>5
AA PHX-SFO MAY 5>6
AA PHX-STS MAY 1.9>1.0
AA PHX-TUS MAY 9>8

AC BDL-YUL MAY 3>1.9 JUN 3>1.9 JUL 3>1.8 AUG 3>1.9 SEP 3>1.8 OCT 3>1.9
AC DEN-YVR SEP 1.4>3 OCT 1.0>1.9
AC LAS-YYZ OCT 2>3
AC LAX-YVR MAY 6>4
AC MDT-YYZ MAY 2>4 JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4
AC PHX-YYC APR 1.0>0.7
AC ROC-YYZ MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4
AC SYR-YYZ MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4

AM LAS-MTY JUN 0.7>0.9

Fixed from last week's filing error
*AS DAL-SFO SEP 0>3 OCT 0>3
AS LAX-LTO AUG 0.5>0.4

Lots of SJU coming back
B6 BOS-AUA JUL 1.1>1.3 AUG 1.1>1.3
B6 BOS-ORD JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
B6 FLL-BOS JUN 6>5
B6 FLL-EWR JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
B6 FLL-SDQ JUN 1.6>1.2
B6 FLL-SJU JUN 5>6
B6 JFK-BUF JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
B6 JFK-SDQ JUN 6>5 JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
B6 JFK-SJU JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
B6 LGB-LAS JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
B6 MCO-SJU JUL 4>6 AUG 4>6

DL ATL-DEN JUN 9>8
DL ATL-MCO OCT 16>17
DL ATL-MOB OCT 8>7
DL ATL-PDX JUN 5>4
DL ATL-SAN JUN 7>6
DL ATL-SDF MAR 7>8
DL ATL-SFO JUN 9>8
DL BOI-MSP SEP 3>1.9 OCT 3>2
DL CVG-MCO OCT 1.0>3
DL DTW-PVD JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 OCT 3>4
DL FCA-MSP JUN 1.9>1.1
DL JFK-PBI SEP 1.0>0.3
DL LAX-MSP JUN 9>8
DL MOT-MSP MAY 6>5
DL MSP-OMA OCT 7>6
DL MSP-PDX OCT 5>4
DL MSP-RAP MAY 5>4
DL RDU-TPA JUN 1.8>3 JUL 1.8>3 AUG 1.9>3 SEP 1.6>3 OCT 1.9>3
DL SEA-MCO JUN 1.6>1.0
DL SLC-ANC JUN 0.6>0.4
DL SLC-ATL JUN 10>9
DL SLC-BUR JUN 4>3
DL SLC-LAS JUN 7>6
DL SLC-SUN OCT 3>2

*ET ORD-ADD JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.4 AUG 0>0.5 SEP 0>0.4 OCT 0>0.4

*F9 LAS-RDU APR 0.2>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0
*F9 MIA-SJU APR 0>0.8 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.4

FI BOS-KEF SEP 3>2
FI IAD-KEF JUN 2>1.9 JUL 2>1.8 AUG 2>1.9 SEP 3>2
FI JFK-KEF JUN 1.7>1.8 JUL 1.7>1.9 AUG 1.7>1.8 SEP 3>1.5
FI SEA-KEF SEP 1.9>1.6

G4 LAX-OGD MAR 0.3>0.1 MAY 0.3>0.0

HA HNL-ITO MAY 15>16
HA HNL-LIH MAY 20>18

HY JFK-TAS JUN 0.3>0.4 JUL 0.3>0.5 AUG 0.3>0.4 SEP 0.3>0.4

*J1 MCI-PIT APR 0>1.4 MAY 0>1.5 JUN 0>1.4

KX JFK-GCM JUL 0.5>0.7 AUG 0.4>0.7
KX TPA-GCM JUL 0.7>1.0 AUG 0.7>1.0

LA LAX-SCL JUL 0.4>0.5 AUG 0.4>0.6
LA MCO-SCL JUL 0>0.4 AUG 0>0.4
LA MIA-SCL JUL 1.7>1.9 AUG 1.7>1.8

LO ORD-KRK JUL 0.2>0.3 AUG 0.1>0.3 SEP 0.2>0.3 OCT 0.1>0.3
LO ORD-WAW JUL 1.7>1.5 AUG 1.7>1.6 SEP 1.7>1.6 OCT 1.6>1.5

*LW MIA-LRM MAR 0>0.6 APR 0>0.6 MAY 0>0.6 JUN 0>0.6 JUL 0>0.5 AUG 0>0.6 SEP 0>0.6 OCT 0>0.5

*P1 AVP-PIT MAY 0>1.5 JUN 0>1.4 JUL 0>1.4 AUG 0>1.5 SEP 0>1.3 OCT 0>1.5

PD MDW-YTZ JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6 OCT 7>6

*PF BOS-BHX JUN 0.2>0 JUL 0.6>0 AUG 0.6>0 SEP 0.6>0 OCT 0.5>0
PF EWR-BHX JUN 1.0>0.9 JUL 1.0>0.6 AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6 OCT 0.9>0.6
PF EWR-CDG OCT 0.9>1.0
PF EWR-STN OCT 0.9>1.0
*PF IAD-STN AUG 0>0.2 SEP 0>0.7 OCT 0>0.7

QF LAX-BNE SEP 1.0>1.4 OCT 1.0>1.3

TS MCO-YUL JUN 0.3>0.2

UA DEN-ASE SEP 7>8
UA DEN-COS MAY 8>9
UA DEN-FSD SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4
UA EWR-AUS JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4
UA EWR-BDL JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3
UA EWR-BTV JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 5>6 OCT 5>6
UA EWR-BUF JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7 SEP 6>7 OCT 6>7
UA EWR-CHS JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4
UA EWR-CLE JUN 6>7 JUL 5>7 AUG 5>7
UA EWR-CMH JUN 6>8 JUL 6>8 AUG 6>8 SEP 6>8 OCT 6>8
UA EWR-CVG JUN 5>6 SEP 5>6
UA EWR-DAY JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 OCT 3>2
UA EWR-GRR JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4
UA EWR-GSP JUL 1.9>3
UA EWR-IND JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6 SEP 7>6 OCT 7>6
UA EWR-LAS JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6 SEP 7>6 OCT 7>6
UA EWR-MHT JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3 OCT 4>3
UA EWR-MIA JUL 4>3
UA EWR-MKE JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4
UA EWR-MSN JUN 1.2>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2
UA EWR-ORF JUN 4>6 JUL 4>6 AUG 4>6 SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5
UA EWR-PHX JUN 4>3 JUL 4>2
UA EWR-PWM JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 5>6 OCT 5>6
UA EWR-RDU JUN 8>9 JUL 8>9 AUG 8>9 SEP 8>9 OCT 8>9
UA EWR-RIC JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 5>6 OCT 5>6
UA EWR-SEA JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4
UA EWR-SYR JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5
UA EWR-YYZ JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 OCT 5>4
UA IAD-ALB JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3
UA IAD-BNA JUL 3>2
UA IAD-DAY MAY 2>1.0
UA IAD-FAY APR 3>1.9 MAY 3>1.9
UA IAD-GSO MAY 3>2 JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2
UA IAD-MCI JUL 3>2
UA IAD-SCE JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2
UA IAD-TYS MAY 3>2
UA IAH-AMA JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3
UA IAH-CRP JUL 7>6
UA IAH-JAN JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5
UA IAH-PBI SEP 1.0>0
UA ORD-ATW JUN 6>4 JUL 6>3 AUG 6>4 SEP 6>4 OCT 6>4
UA ORD-BNA JUL 7>6 AUG 8>7 SEP 8>7 OCT 8>7
UA ORD-BTV JUN 4>3 JUL 4>2 AUG 4>3
UA ORD-CAE JUN 1.9>1.2 JUL 1.9>1.0 AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 1.8>1.0 OCT 1.9>1.0
UA ORD-CAK MAY 5>4
UA ORD-CID JUN 5>4 JUL 5>3 AUG 5>4
UA ORD-DAY JUN 7>5 JUL 7>4 AUG 7>4 SEP 7>4 OCT 7>4
UA SFO-BOS APR 6>7 MAY 6>7
UA SFO-BUR JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5
UA SFO-IAD JUL 9>8
UA SFO-ONT JUL 7>6
UA SFO-PHX JUN 4>6 JUL 4>6 AUG 4>6
UA SFO-PSP JUL 4>3
UA SFO-TUS JUN 4>3 JUL 3>1.9 AUG 3>1.5

VS MCO-LGW SEP 1.4>1.3

WN BNA-RDU APR 3>4
WN MCO-MHT APR 3>4

X4 AGN-TKE MAR 0.9>1.9 APR 1.0>1.8
X4 HNH-JNU MAR 2>4
X4 HNS-JNU MAR 1.0>2
X4 JNU-SGY MAR 1.0>2

*Y4 AUS-GDL APR 0.3>0 MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.3>0 JUL 0.3>0 AUG 0.3>0 SEP 0.3>0 OCT 0.3>0
Y4 DEN-GDL APR 0.4>0.1 MAY 0.5>0.2 JUN 0.4>0.1 JUL 0.5>0.1 AUG 0.4>0.2 SEP 0.4>0.1 OCT 0.4>0.1
Y4 DEN-MEX APR 0.2>0.9 MAY 0.1>0.8 JUN 0.1>0.9 JUL 0.7>0.8 AUG 0.7>0.9 SEP 0.2>0.9 OCT 0.1>0.8
*Y4 DEN-MTY MAY 0>0.1 JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.1 SEP 0>0.2 OCT 0>0.1
Y4 IAH-GDL APR 0.4>0.3 MAY 0.4>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.4>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
Y4 JFK-MEX MAR 1.7>1.5 APR 1.6>1.1 MAY 1.6>1.2 JUN 1.6>1.2 JUL 1.6>1.1 AUG 1.5>1.2 SEP 1.6>1.1 OCT 1.6>1.2
Y4 LAS-MEX APR 0.9>0.6 MAY 0.8>0.6 JUN 0.9>0.6 JUL 0.8>0.5 AUG 0.9>0.6 SEP 0.9>0.5 OCT 0.8>0.6
Y4 LAX-MEX MAR 2.0>1.7 APR 2>1.7 MAY 2>1.7 JUN 2>1.7 JUL 2>1.7 AUG 2>1.7 SEP 2>1.7 OCT 2>1.7
Y4 LAX-MLM APR 0.9>0.7 MAY 0.8>0.7 JUN 0.9>0.7 JUL 0.9>0.7 AUG 0.8>0.7 SEP 0.9>0.7 OCT 0.9>0.7
Y4 LAX-PVR APR 0.3>0.1 MAY 0.3>0.1 JUN 0.3>0.2 JUL 0.3>0.1 AUG 0.3>0.2 SEP 0.3>0.1 OCT 0.3>0.1
*Y4 LAX-QRO APR 0>0.2 MAY 0>0.1 JUN 0>0.1 JUL 0>0.2 AUG 0>0.1 SEP 0>0.2 OCT 0>0.1
Y4 LAX-ZCL APR 0.7>0.4 MAY 0.7>0.5 JUN 0.7>0.4 JUL 0.7>0.4 AUG 0.7>0.5 SEP 0.7>0.4 OCT 0.7>0.4
Y4 MCO-MEX APR 0.1>0.8 MAY 0.1>0.9 JUN 0>0.9 JUL 0.5>0.8 AUG 0.4>0.9 SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.9
Y4 MDW-BJX APR 0.6>0.4 MAY 0.6>0.4 JUN 0.6>0.4 JUL 0.5>0.4 AUG 0.6>0.4 SEP 0.6>0.4 OCT 0.6>0.4
Y4 MDW-MLM APR 1.0>0.9 MAY 1.0>0.8 JUN 1.0>0.9 JUL 1.0>0.9 AUG 1.0>0.8 SEP 1.0>0.9 OCT 1.0>0.9
Y4 MIA-MEX JUN 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.4>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.4>0.3
Y4 OAK-GDL MAR 1.0>0.9 APR 0.9>1.0 MAY 0.9>1.0 JUN 0.8>1.0 JUL 1.2>1.0 AUG 1.3>1.0 SEP 0.8>1.0
*Y4 OAK-MEX APR 0>0.1 MAY 0>0.1 JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0.6>0.1 AUG 0.6>0.1 SEP 0>0.2 OCT 0>0.1
Y4 OAK-MLM MAR 0.5>0.4 APR 0.6>0.1 MAY 0.6>0.1 JUN 0.6>0.2 JUL 0.6>0.1 AUG 0.6>0.2 SEP 0.6>0.1 OCT 0.6>0.1
Y4 ONT-BJX MAR 0.3>0
Y4 ORD-MTY APR 0.2>0.3
Y4 SAT-GDL APR 0.3>0.1 MAY 0.3>0.2 JUN 0.3>0.1 JUL 0.3>0.1 AUG 0.3>0.2 SEP 0.3>0.1 OCT 0.3>0.1
Y4 SAT-MEX MAR 1.0>0.8 APR 1.0>0.8 MAY 1.0>0.9 JUN 1.0>0.9 JUL 1.0>0.8 AUG 1.0>0.9 SEP 1.0>0.8 OCT 1.0>0.9
Y4 SFO-MEX APR 0.6>0.4 MAY 0.5>0.4 JUN 0.6>0.5 JUL 0.7>0.4 AUG 0.6>0.4 SEP 0.6>0.4 OCT 0.6>0.4
Y4 SJC-ZCL APR 0.3>0.1 MAY 0.3>0.2 JUN 0.3>0.1 JUL 0.3>0.1 AUG 0.3>0.2 SEP 0.3>0.1 OCT 0.3>0.1
Y4 SMF-GDL APR 1.0>0.7 MAY 1.0>0.7 JUN 1.0>0.7 JUL 1.0>0.7 AUG 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 0.9>0.7

Thanks Enilria..do you have access to equip. type. I was just curious on the YYZ-SYR,ROC,MDT uptick in frequencies?

RJNUT wrote:

Thanks Enilria..do you have access to equip. type. I was just curious on the YYZ-SYR,ROC,MDT uptick in frequencies?

Thanks

All still operated by BE1.

Delta Phoenix to Cincinnati in November

https://mobile.twitter.com/Airlineroute ... 1977910272

Thanks as always!

enilria wrote:

AA ORD-TUL MAY 3>2
AA ORD-XNA MAY 5>4

These two at least seem to be extensions of what is currently being flown.

enilria wrote:

DL ATL-MCO OCT 16>17

Crazy number of flights. Anyone have an idea of what the most ever has been? Solely on DL?

Thanks enilria!

enilria wrote:

Lots of SJU coming back
B6 BOS-AUA JUL 1.1>1.3 AUG 1.1>1.3
B6 BOS-ORD JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
B6 FLL-BOS JUN 6>5
B6 FLL-EWR JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
B6 FLL-SDQ JUN 1.6>1.2
B6 FLL-SJU JUN 5>6
B6 JFK-BUF JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
B6 JFK-SDQ JUN 6>5 JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
B6 JFK-SJU JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
B6 LGB-LAS JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
B6 MCO-SJU JUL 4>6 AUG 4>6

5x on BOS-ORD is the highest frequency B6 has ever had in this market. Perhaps pre-empting DL's entry. Can B6 squeeze this in at just 1 gate at ORD? With 4x to JFK and 1x to FLL, there isn't much room for error.

Great to see SJU continue to make a comeback.

Now we know which LGB market took the hit for HA's new service. Makes sense - B6 regularly sells LGB-LAS walk-ups for under $50!

enilria wrote:

UA SFO-BOS APR 6>7 MAY 6>7

Interesting to see UA returning the 7x with the added competition in the market and fuel prices +30% YOY. This market has become a blood bath and it doesn't look like relief will come anytime soon.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks enilria!

enilria wrote:

Lots of SJU coming back
B6 BOS-AUA JUL 1.1>1.3 AUG 1.1>1.3
B6 BOS-ORD JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
B6 FLL-BOS JUN 6>5
B6 FLL-EWR JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
B6 FLL-SDQ JUN 1.6>1.2
B6 FLL-SJU JUN 5>6
B6 JFK-BUF JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
B6 JFK-SDQ JUN 6>5 JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
B6 JFK-SJU JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
B6 LGB-LAS JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
B6 MCO-SJU JUL 4>6 AUG 4>6

5x on BOS-ORD is the highest frequency B6 has ever had in this market. Perhaps pre-empting DL's entry. Can B6 squeeze this in at just 1 gate at ORD? With 4x to JFK and 1x to FLL, there isn't much room for error.

Great to see SJU continue to make a comeback.

Now we know which LGB market took the hit for HA's new service. Makes sense - B6 regularly sells LGB-LAS walk-ups for under $50!

enilria wrote:

UA SFO-BOS APR 6>7 MAY 6>7

Interesting to see UA returning the 7x with the added competition in the market and fuel prices +30% YOY. This market has become a blood bath and it doesn't look like relief will come anytime soon.

Yeah that ORD frequency is going to be very interesting 10 turns is seriously tight. Will have to find the timing of that flight to see how it slots in so to speak. I will say that my last trip to ORD in B6 we ended up departing from one of Spirit’s gates and they had to hand count the passengers on board. So they do have arrangements for issues, but everything would have to run perfectly I suspect to make this work. That said I like the extra frequency from BOS, it kind of pushes me to have to use UA or AA to and from and i prefer to use B6 if I can.

enilria wrote:

7Q HPN-SRQ SEP 0.3>0.0

Hmmm...permanent or just a seasonal adjustment

enilria wrote:

AA CLT-SRQ MAY 3>4

YAY, I guess

I’m 50/50 on if Primera has sustainability in Boston. They already pulled the plug on BOS-BHX. Norwegian and Wow provide ‘ulcc’ service into London. Wow of course requires a KEF stop, but they will soon have service into LTN and LGW. One of the 3 will likely give, and I don’t see it being Wow or Norwegian.

VS4ever wrote:

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks enilria!

enilria wrote:

Lots of SJU coming back
B6 BOS-AUA JUL 1.1>1.3 AUG 1.1>1.3
B6 BOS-ORD JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
B6 FLL-BOS JUN 6>5
B6 FLL-EWR JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
B6 FLL-SDQ JUN 1.6>1.2
B6 FLL-SJU JUN 5>6
B6 JFK-BUF JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
B6 JFK-SDQ JUN 6>5 JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
B6 JFK-SJU JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
B6 LGB-LAS JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
B6 MCO-SJU JUL 4>6 AUG 4>6

5x on BOS-ORD is the highest frequency B6 has ever had in this market. Perhaps pre-empting DL's entry. Can B6 squeeze this in at just 1 gate at ORD? With 4x to JFK and 1x to FLL, there isn't much room for error.

Great to see SJU continue to make a comeback.

Now we know which LGB market took the hit for HA's new service. Makes sense - B6 regularly sells LGB-LAS walk-ups for under $50!

enilria wrote:

UA SFO-BOS APR 6>7 MAY 6>7

Interesting to see UA returning the 7x with the added competition in the market and fuel prices +30% YOY. This market has become a blood bath and it doesn't look like relief will come anytime soon.

Yeah that ORD frequency is going to be very interesting 10 turns is seriously tight. Will have to find the timing of that flight to see how it slots in so to speak. I will say that my last trip to ORD in B6 we ended up departing from one of Spirit’s gates and they had to hand count the passengers on board. So they do have arrangements for issues, but everything would have to run perfectly I suspect to make this work. That said I like the extra frequency from BOS, it kind of pushes me to have to use UA or AA to and from and i prefer to use B6 if I can.

For certain this makes B6 more competitive against AA/UA. Similar to markets like BOS-BWI/PHL/DCA/ATL, B6 doesn't need to be the frequency leader in the market to still be relevant enough to its BOS corporate base.

I took a look at the departure times from ORD, and it looks like B6 is planning to use just one gate. Given how much of a mess JFK can be over the summer, I'm sure there will be IRROPS that require use of that NK gate.

B6 departure times from ORD beginning August 2018:

600
700
846
942
1118
1250
1500
1755
1925
2040

Great news for BDL and AC.... BDL-YUL is down to 2 daily but up-gauged to Dash 8's instead and no more Beech 1900's at BDL. YYZ went to 4x daily all Dash 8 and no more 1900's. Great news for BDL and is a sign AC is doing great there!

jb1087xna wrote:

enilria wrote:

DL ATL-MCO OCT 16>17

Crazy number of flights. Anyone have an idea of what the most ever has been? Solely on DL?

This is par for the course these days. I haven't seen the average (ie over a month-long horizon) daily flight count creep higher than this, however. Historically, DL favored capacity over frequency on this route, as is generally true.

MCO runs at about 16/daily, and TPA/FLL are usually behind at 14 each. This varies in peak season with capacity changes. For example, over the holidays I noticed DL running 16 daily on TPA-ATL with an unusual number of M88s, whereas the route generally averages the A321 at 14x.

DL's ATL-FL presence is mammoth. MCO, FLL, TPA are among the top 5 routes from ATL by volume.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

VS4ever wrote:

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks enilria!



5x on BOS-ORD is the highest frequency B6 has ever had in this market. Perhaps pre-empting DL's entry. Can B6 squeeze this in at just 1 gate at ORD? With 4x to JFK and 1x to FLL, there isn't much room for error.

Great to see SJU continue to make a comeback.

Now we know which LGB market took the hit for HA's new service. Makes sense - B6 regularly sells LGB-LAS walk-ups for under $50!



Interesting to see UA returning the 7x with the added competition in the market and fuel prices +30% YOY. This market has become a blood bath and it doesn't look like relief will come anytime soon.

Yeah that ORD frequency is going to be very interesting 10 turns is seriously tight. Will have to find the timing of that flight to see how it slots in so to speak. I will say that my last trip to ORD in B6 we ended up departing from one of Spirit’s gates and they had to hand count the passengers on board. So they do have arrangements for issues, but everything would have to run perfectly I suspect to make this work. That said I like the extra frequency from BOS, it kind of pushes me to have to use UA or AA to and from and i prefer to use B6 if I can.

For certain this makes B6 more competitive against AA/UA. Similar to markets like BOS-BWI/PHL/DCA/ATL, B6 doesn't need to be the frequency leader in the market to still be relevant enough to its BOS corporate base.

I took a look at the departure times from ORD, and it looks like B6 is planning to use just one gate. Given how much of a mess JFK can be over the summer, I'm sure there will be IRROPS that require use of that NK gate.

B6 departure times from ORD beginning August 2018:

600
700
846
942
1118
1250
1500
1755
1925
2040

Man that is going to be tough. With ORD and JFK so unpredictable I can see sitting in the pad waiting on a gate. It already happens now with the last jfk and bos flights. It’s amazing the control of the gates at ORD. The future isn’t going to be slots it’s going to be gate acess. JetBlue keeps running into this from LAX to ATL and ORD the gate issue is hurting them.

Thanks for those departure times jetbluefan1. Will be interesting to see how often that 0700 departure takes a delay since there is a 0600 departure. I wonder how many RON aircraft B6 has at ORD.

UPNYGuy wrote:

I’m 50/50 on if Primera has sustainability in Boston. They already pulled the plug on BOS-BHX. Norwegian and Wow provide ‘ulcc’ service into London. Wow of course requires a KEF stop, but they will soon have service into LTN and LGW. One of the 3 will likely give, and I don’t see it being Wow or Norwegian.

The way I see it BHX had to be dropped because that was a purely O/D destination and there wasn't enough traffic. I do believe that CDG will be dropped after this summer because Primera entered a bloodbath, 2 daily from AF, also Delta and Norwegian flying there too. There isn't space for 4 carriers on that route in my opinion and Primera has the smallest brand recognition so it will be the hardest for them to survive. As for Stansted I think they can find success there, it will be a larger base and they could connect at least some passengers and BOS-London is a large market that is still growing.

Thanks as always, enilria!

enilria wrote:

*Y4 AUS-GDL APR 0.3>0 MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.3>0 JUL 0.3>0 AUG 0.3>0 SEP 0.3>0 OCT 0.3>0
Y4 IAH-GDL APR 0.4>0.3 MAY 0.4>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.4>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3
Y4 SAT-GDL APR 0.3>0.1 MAY 0.3>0.2 JUN 0.3>0.1 JUL 0.3>0.1 AUG 0.3>0.2 SEP 0.3>0.1 OCT 0.3>0.1

Guadalajara to Texas has been on the weak side for them. For the first seven months of 2017 (round trip)
48.9% AUS
64.4% IAH
60.4% SAT

It's not a short drive to Guadalajara from these places (roughly 13.5 - 16.0 hours) but apparently they have not had overwhelming demand for their flights.

enilria wrote:

Y4 DEN-GDL APR 0.4>0.1 MAY 0.5>0.2 JUN 0.4>0.1 JUL 0.5>0.1 AUG 0.4>0.2 SEP 0.4>0.1 OCT 0.4>0.1

Kind of peculiar on the heels of the Frontier-Volaris code sharing agreement announced in mid January. A number of professional and amateur analysts talked about how broad, ground-breaking and (r)evolutionary the hookup is. Based on the networks both airlines run (low/very low frequency point-to-point) I just don't see there being a lot of opportunities for synergy. Curtailing Denver flights from the primary Volaris focus of Guadalajara doesn't move the needle in the right direction if they expect much.

NickolayAv wrote:

UPNYGuy wrote:

I’m 50/50 on if Primera has sustainability in Boston. They already pulled the plug on BOS-BHX. Norwegian and Wow provide ‘ulcc’ service into London. Wow of course requires a KEF stop, but they will soon have service into LTN and LGW. One of the 3 will likely give, and I don’t see it being Wow or Norwegian.

The way I see it I BHX had to be dropped because that was a purely O/D destination and there wasn't enough traffic. I do believe that CDG will be dropped after this summer because Primera entered a bloodbath, 2 daily from AF, also Delta and Norwegian flying there too. There isn't space for 4 carriers on that route in my opinion and Primera has the smallest brand recognition so it will be the hardest for them to survive. As for Stansted I think they can find success there, it will be a larger base and they could connect at least some passengers and BOS-London is a large market that is still growing.

Not sure how they can make money with $99 fares across the Atlantic. The NEO is a great aircraft but still....

enilria wrote:

DL CVG-MCO OCT 1.0>3

This is significant. Looks like it's 3x daily with the 738

knope2001 wrote:

Thanks as always, enilria!

enilria wrote:

*Y4 AUS-GDL APR 0.3>0 MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.3>0 JUL 0.3>0 AUG 0.3>0 SEP 0.3>0 OCT 0.3>0

Guadalajara to Texas has been on the weak side for them. For the first seven months of 2017 (round trip)
48.9% AUS

The city supplied subsidiary for AUS-GDL has finally run out. That was the only thing keeping that route going. The load factors have been abysmal for ages. The A320 is too much plane for that route, and it was poorly timed for connections to other part of Mexico.

NickolayAv wrote:

UPNYGuy wrote:

I’m 50/50 on if Primera has sustainability in Boston. They already pulled the plug on BOS-BHX. Norwegian and Wow provide ‘ulcc’ service into London. Wow of course requires a KEF stop, but they will soon have service into LTN and LGW. One of the 3 will likely give, and I don’t see it being Wow or Norwegian.

The way I see it BHX had to be dropped because that was a purely O/D destination and there wasn't enough traffic. I do believe that CDG will be dropped after this summer because Primera entered a bloodbath, 2 daily from AF, also Delta and Norwegian flying there too. There isn't space for 4 carriers on that route in my opinion and Primera has the smallest brand recognition so it will be the hardest for them to survive. As for Stansted I think they can find success there, it will be a larger base and they could connect at least some passengers and BOS-London is a large market that is still growing.

Many good points there

khowaga wrote:

knope2001 wrote:

Thanks as always, enilria!

enilria wrote:

*Y4 AUS-GDL APR 0.3>0 MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.3>0 JUL 0.3>0 AUG 0.3>0 SEP 0.3>0 OCT 0.3>0

Guadalajara to Texas has been on the weak side for them. For the first seven months of 2017 (round trip)
48.9% AUS

The city supplied subsidiary for AUS-GDL has finally run out. That was the only thing keeping that route going.

Any detail or scope of subsidy? Many (most?) US airports have incentives for new routes and/or new carriers for things like waived initial rent and fees, perhaps some relatively nominal marketing money, etc. Far less common (and far more costly) are true direct payments, revenue guarantees, etc.

Both could reasonably be called "subsidy", of course, but because the latter is much less common and more expensive I'm wondering what sort of subsidy Austin ponied up.

enilria wrote:

*J1 MCI-PIT APR 0>1.4 MAY 0>1.5 JUN 0>1.4

Their second ER3 route (following BUF-ALB) starting in late March. They are also using the PIT-MCI-PIT aircraft to do a mid-day PIT-PBI-PIT route on Thursdays and Fridays.

dc10lover wrote:

Delta Phoenix to Cincinnati in November

https://mobile.twitter.com/Airlineroute ... 1977910272

ScroogeMcDuck wrote:

enilria wrote:

DL CVG-MCO OCT 1.0>3

This is significant. Looks like it's 3x daily with the 738

Lots of adds for CVG by DL! The CVG-PHX is daily 738, the amount of 738/9's running through CVG is going to be crazy. Looks like CVG-ATL/BOS/MCO/RSW/TPA/FLL/CUN/LAS/SFO/PHX/LAX/SLC/SEA have them scheduled at some point.

Not being shown on the OAG, but there were a few other changes:
- they have added 2nd daily sat flights on CVG-RSW/TPA, both routes are also back to year-round mainline and even see the 738 in the Spring
- CVG-ORD/DCA/BWI/RDU will once again see Saturday service, with 1-2x flights
- CRJ --> CR7/9 upguages on routes such as CVG-PHL/BWI/STL/RDU

knope2001 wrote:

khowaga wrote:

The city supplied subsidiary for AUS-GDL has finally run out. That was the only thing keeping that route going.

Any detail or scope of subsidy? Many (most?) US airports have incentives for new routes and/or new carriers for things like waived initial rent and fees, perhaps some relatively nominal marketing money, etc. Far less common (and far more costly) are true direct payments, revenue guarantees, etc.

Both could reasonably be called "subsidy", of course, but because the latter is much less common and more expensive I'm wondering what sort of subsidy Austin ponied up.

Revenue guarantees, specifically for new international service. When BA started AUS, there was an agreement to keep the flight in the black for a year, but they never paid out because it was profitable from day one.

Volaris has been in AUS closer to two years, and I think that, with the exception of the Christmas season, it’s never been profitable. Routes from AUS to interior Mexico have always been challenging (AM is currently making its second attempt on AUS-MEX—which has been successful—finally—but it was also tried by MX and Aeromar, both of whom pulled out in less than two years). It was pretty much known that Y4 would leave as soon as they had to pay for the flight themselves.

AUS-GDL was just an odd fit. The price was right, but the service was unreliable as it was cancelled frequently, and, as I mentioned, it was badly timed for connections beyond GDL to other parts of Mexico (especially on the return). There is a persistent rumor that AM wants to step in and try it with an RJ, which would be better sized (also, AM can draw on the DL pax base here).

Regional Sky will operate for Public Charters the AVP-PIT on a Piper Navajo, apparently.

Some of the UA changes ORD-DAY, ORD-ATW seem errors, as frequency has not changed on Google Flights. Switching to Air Wisconsin on some flights and not yet loaded?
Do any of you know a better way to compare equipment types and YOY changes, I look on the airline's websites and on Google Flights, but its hard to find out what was operated correspondingly last year?

cvgComair wrote:

- CRJ --> CR7/9 upguages on routes such as CVG-PHL/BWI/STL/RDU

Unfortunately XNA is getting downgauged to one. DL has been running a CR7 from either MSP or ATL to pivot at XNA for CVG for most of the last year. CVG to XNA in the morning and XNA to CVG in the evening. Looks like that will be converting to a CVG-XNA-CVG in the afternoon on a CR2 starting in April. Will be a reintroduction of scheduled DL CR2 service at XNA, as we've been without them (outside of the super limited holiday schedules) for some time.

jb1087xna wrote:

Thanks as always!

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks enilria!

knope2001 wrote:

Thanks as always, enilria!

jb1087xna wrote:

enilria wrote:

DL ATL-MCO OCT 16>17

Crazy number of flights. Anyone have an idea of what the most ever has been? Solely on DL?

I'm surprised it doesn't make more sense to fly 767s not doing Transatlantic at that time of year with less frequency. To me more than 12 flights just costs more money than it's worth and it's time to upgauge.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

For certain this makes B6 more competitive against AA/UA. Similar to markets like BOS-BWI/PHL/DCA/ATL, B6 doesn't need to be the frequency leader in the market to still be relevant enough to its BOS corporate base.

I took a look at the departure times from ORD, and it looks like B6 is planning to use just one gate. Given how much of a mess JFK can be over the summer, I'm sure there will be IRROPS that require use of that NK gate.

B6 departure times from ORD beginning August 2018:

600
700
846
942
1118
1250
1500
1755
1925
2040

fastmover wrote:

Man that is going to be tough. With ORD and JFK so unpredictable I can see sitting in the pad waiting on a gate. It already happens now with the last jfk and bos flights. It’s amazing the control of the gates at ORD. The future isn’t going to be slots it’s going to be gate acess. JetBlue keeps running into this from LAX to ATL and ORD the gate issue is hurting them.

DDR wrote:

Thanks for those departure times jetbluefan1. Will be interesting to see how often that 0700 departure takes a delay since there is a 0600 departure. I wonder how many RON aircraft B6 has at ORD.

That 0942 is clearly at risk on a daily basis unless it is on another gate they are borrowing. Is that a RON or a turn? If it's a turn they have to be borrowing a gate. 942 not peak for gate usage.

knope2001 wrote:

Guadalajara to Texas has been on the weak side for them. For the first seven months of 2017 (round trip)
48.9% AUS

Yeah, that's pretty bad. GDL is a tough market. Depends on the migration mix a city ended up with. Migration has a magnetism that often focuses on a single region and that makes a particular route work.

RJNUT wrote:

Regional Sky will operate for Public Charters the AVP-PIT on a Piper Navajo, apparently.

The bottom of the equipment barrel? Fun for flight training, though. How can that work financially???? Maybe the pilots pay to fly it! LOL

SumChristianus wrote:

Some of the UA changes ORD-DAY, ORD-ATW seem errors, as frequency has not changed on Google Flights. Switching to Air Wisconsin on some flights and not yet loaded?
Do any of you know a better way to compare equipment types and YOY changes, I look on the airline's websites and on Google Flights, but its hard to find out what was operated correspondingly last year?

I would trust UA.com more than Google. Take a peak there.

here is article about out P1 service. Funny, one guy with the Penguins says it will be convenient for sudden call-ups from the minor league team in AVP!

http://www.regionalsky.com/non-stop-ser ... announced/

ScroogeMcDuck wrote:

enilria wrote:

DL CVG-MCO OCT 1.0>3

This is significant. Looks like it's 3x daily with the 738

I think it is a misfile, it's 2x daily and 3x daily on saturdays like last year

enilria wrote:

SumChristianus wrote:

Some of the UA changes ORD-DAY, ORD-ATW seem errors, as frequency has not changed on Google Flights. Switching to Air Wisconsin on some flights and not yet loaded?
Do any of you know a better way to compare equipment types and YOY changes, I look on the airline's websites and on Google Flights, but its hard to find out what was operated correspondingly last year?

I would trust UA.com more than Google. Take a peak there.

DAY is still listed as 7x on united.com (all Air Wisconsin). Still not a good week for DAY on UA though.

The B6 ORD frequencies are seriously seasonal. By fall, they usually fall back to 2 daily JFK, 3 daily BOS...because Chicago is a seasonal small town like PBI or SRQ.

jb1087xna wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

- CRJ --> CR7/9 upguages on routes such as CVG-PHL/BWI/STL/RDU

Unfortunately XNA is getting downgauged to one. DL has been running a CR7 from either MSP or ATL to pivot at XNA for CVG for most of the last year. CVG to XNA in the morning and XNA to CVG in the evening. Looks like that will be converting to a CVG-XNA-CVG in the afternoon on a CR2 starting in April. Will be a reintroduction of scheduled DL CR2 service at XNA, as we've been without them (outside of the super limited holiday schedules) for some time.

It certainly was a strange route to upgrade when they went from CR2 to CR7, I am not surprised it is back to a CR2. I think they were hoping premium demand would offset the rise in seats, but that was apparently not the case. I am a little worried about the route now though, without other CR2 routes out of XNA to send the plane, the afternoon departure will be at a terrible time.

AA shrinks at RDU again, while DL adds a bit.

jfklganyc wrote:

The B6 ORD frequencies are seriously seasonal. By fall, they usually fall back to 2 daily JFK, 3 daily BOS...because Chicago is a seasonal small town like PBI or SRQ.

Chicago is a “small town”?!

PHL-MSN going from 1x daily E175 to 2x daily CR7. Increase in seats and bodes well for this flight. Not surprising, there is a decent healthcare link between the two.

cvgComair wrote:

- CRJ --> CR7/9 upguages on routes such as CVG-PHL/BWI/STL/RDU

Just curious--when do these upgauges begin? Thanks!

DDR wrote:

Thanks for those departure times jetbluefan1. Will be interesting to see how often that 0700 departure takes a delay since there is a 0600 departure. I wonder how many RON aircraft B6 has at ORD.

I pulled the arrival time as well. Looks like there are 2 RON's:

806
907
1043
1210
1424
1719
1850
2000
2206
2324

It's sure going to be an interesting summer...

jfklganyc wrote:

The B6 ORD frequencies are seriously seasonal. By fall, they usually fall back to 2 daily JFK, 3 daily BOS...because Chicago is a seasonal small town like PBI or SRQ.

ORD has always been a little different from other big hub cities for B6. I was always surprised that B6 didn't maintain at least 5x from BOS, and then adjust JFK/FLL wherever they could be fit. BOS-ORD is, arguably, a more strategically important market for B6 than FLL/JFK. B6 gets considerably higher average fares on BOS-ORD than JFK-ORD, and I suspect the same is true vs. FLL. With the growing threat of DL at BOS, which is clearly intent on capturing greater BOS-based corporate and leisure traffic, B6 has to move quickly to bolster its weak spots. Beefing up HOU and DFW may be a good idea too...

That said, Chicago is wonderful in the summer and pretty miserable in the winter

jetbluefan1 wrote:

VS4ever wrote:

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks enilria!



5x on BOS-ORD is the highest frequency B6 has ever had in this market. Perhaps pre-empting DL's entry. Can B6 squeeze this in at just 1 gate at ORD? With 4x to JFK and 1x to FLL, there isn't much room for error.

Great to see SJU continue to make a comeback.

Now we know which LGB market took the hit for HA's new service. Makes sense - B6 regularly sells LGB-LAS walk-ups for under $50!



Interesting to see UA returning the 7x with the added competition in the market and fuel prices +30% YOY. This market has become a blood bath and it doesn't look like relief will come anytime soon.

Yeah that ORD frequency is going to be very interesting 10 turns is seriously tight. Will have to find the timing of that flight to see how it slots in so to speak. I will say that my last trip to ORD in B6 we ended up departing from one of Spirit’s gates and they had to hand count the passengers on board. So they do have arrangements for issues, but everything would have to run perfectly I suspect to make this work. That said I like the extra frequency from BOS, it kind of pushes me to have to use UA or AA to and from and i prefer to use B6 if I can.

For certain this makes B6 more competitive against AA/UA. Similar to markets like BOS-BWI/PHL/DCA/ATL, B6 doesn't need to be the frequency leader in the market to still be relevant enough to its BOS corporate base.

I took a look at the departure times from ORD, and it looks like B6 is planning to use just one gate. Given how much of a mess JFK can be over the summer, I'm sure there will be IRROPS that require use of that NK gate.

B6 departure times from ORD beginning August 2018:

600
700
846
942
1118
1250
1500
1755
1925
2040

I think i saw on Chicago thread that B6 does use other LCC gates for overflow. Agreed that this is a pretty big move on their part.

In february, they are only doing 2 a day. I think last summer, they were only at 3 a day. So it's quite a large move to a 5 day all the way until October.

It will be 9 a day for both UA/AA and 5 for B6. That's at least somewhat competitive.

Here are the 2017 Q3 fare numbers
AA 168
UA 175
B6 147

and Q2
AA 194
UA 196
B6 182

Seems like fares that B6 can make money on. If they can fill the planes at this price level, they should be adding flights.

VS4ever, do you have the LFs on BOS-ORD?

For SJU and SDQ, I guess they are cutting SDQ to fund SJU adds?

ORD has always been a little different from other big hub cities for B6. I was always surprised that B6 didn't maintain at least 5x from BOS, and then adjust JFK/FLL wherever they could be fit. BOS-ORD is, arguably, a more strategically important market for B6 than FLL/JFK. B6 gets considerably higher average fares on BOS-ORD than JFK-ORD, and I suspect the same is true vs. FLL. With the growing threat of DL at BOS, which is clearly intent on capturing greater BOS-based corporate and leisure traffic, B6 has to move quickly to bolster its weak spots. Beefing up HOU and DFW may be a good idea too...

There actually is quite a bit of ff traffic on JFK-ORD based on what I hear on ft, so I think there is probably more corporate traffic there than one would expect. JFK-ORD was 141 in Q3, which is not too fare behind BOS-ORD.

I also don't think this is a reaction to DL. So far, their numbers for ORD-SEA look pretty bad. I'm not sure they will be adding another route out there so soon or at least before ORD-LAX. Also B6 to HOU/DFW will probably just remain bare minimum presence imo.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

ORD has always been a little different from other big hub cities for B6. I was always surprised that B6 didn't maintain at least 5x from BOS, and then adjust JFK/FLL wherever they could be fit. BOS-ORD is, arguably, a more strategically important market for B6 than FLL/JFK. B6 gets considerably higher average fares on BOS-ORD than JFK-ORD, and I suspect the same is true vs. FLL. With the growing threat of DL at BOS, which is clearly intent on capturing greater BOS-based corporate and leisure traffic, B6 has to move quickly to bolster its weak spots. Beefing up HOU and DFW may be a good idea too...

That said, Chicago is wonderful in the summer and pretty miserable in the winter

Chicago can be pretty miserable in the winter, but BOS-ORD is a big business market. It will be interesting to see if United gets agressive with them. The new regime says that they're not going to sit back and watch others take their traditional stronghold markets like they did in the past . . . here's an opportunity . . . we'll see.

SCHATC422 wrote:

Great news for BDL and AC.... BDL-YUL is down to 2 daily but up-gauged to Dash 8's instead and no more Beech 1900's at BDL. YYZ went to 4x daily all Dash 8 and no more 1900's. Great news for BDL and is a sign AC is doing great there!

....or that the pilot shortage at ZX is becoming more of a problem.

tphuang wrote:

VS4ever, do you have the LFs on BOS-ORD?

Yes indeed, although i had only run them through July as I pull my numbers combined for International inclusion purposes. However I just ran Jan-Oct 17 and the results are below by carrier.

AA - 5,133 flights, 821,598 seats, 728,793 pax 88.7%
B6 - 1,750 flights, 190,850 seats, 163,070 pax 85.4%
NK - 363 flights, 65,353 seats, 57,813 pax 88.5%
UA - 3,945 flights 727,660 seats, 667,592 pax 91.7%

AA has a 45% market share, with UA on 41%, B6 has 10% and NK 4%

SCHATC422 wrote:

Great news for BDL and AC.... BDL-YUL is down to 2 daily but up-gauged to Dash 8's instead and no more Beech 1900's at BDL. YYZ went to 4x daily all Dash 8 and no more 1900's. Great news for BDL and is a sign AC is doing great there!

Air Canada has served BDL for ages and before Aer Lingus started service here, the running joke was that AC put the “international” in Bradley International. Indeed they do quite well here even subbing Canadair jets in from time to time.

DDR wrote:

NickolayAv wrote:

UPNYGuy wrote:

I’m 50/50 on if Primera has sustainability in Boston. They already pulled the plug on BOS-BHX. Norwegian and Wow provide ‘ulcc’ service into London. Wow of course requires a KEF stop, but they will soon have service into LTN and LGW. One of the 3 will likely give, and I don’t see it being Wow or Norwegian.

The way I see it I BHX had to be dropped because that was a purely O/D destination and there wasn't enough traffic. I do believe that CDG will be dropped after this summer because Primera entered a bloodbath, 2 daily from AF, also Delta and Norwegian flying there too. There isn't space for 4 carriers on that route in my opinion and Primera has the smallest brand recognition so it will be the hardest for them to survive. As for Stansted I think they can find success there, it will be a larger base and they could connect at least some passengers and BOS-London is a large market that is still growing.

Not sure how they can make money with $99 fares across the Atlantic. The NEO is a great aircraft but still....

I am very skeptical of Primera's long-term prospects in general. I don't get their business plan - I don't see what unfilled market niche they are trying to take advantage of. IMHO all they seem to be them doing is adding more capacity in city-pairs that already probably have too much capacity while they have little brand recognition and no connectivity on either end of their transatlantic flights...

And as far as IAD-STN goes - what are they thinking launching a new leisure-oriented TATL route at the END of the summer. Theya re going to lose soooo much money...

VS4ever wrote:

tphuang wrote:

VS4ever, do you have the LFs on BOS-ORD?

Yes indeed, although i had only run them through July as I pull my numbers combined for International inclusion purposes. However I just ran Jan-Oct 17 and the results are below by carrier.

AA - 5,133 flights, 821,598 seats, 728,793 pax 88.7%
B6 - 1,750 flights, 190,850 seats, 163,070 pax 85.4%
NK - 363 flights, 65,353 seats, 57,813 pax 88.5%
UA - 3,945 flights 727,660 seats, 667,592 pax 91.7%

AA has a 45% market share, with UA on 41%, B6 has 10% and NK 4%

Thank you so much.

I did a sample query in late September. I see 3 E90 and 2 A320s compared to 3 E90s right now. That's a huge jump in capacity.

Checking some other markets since they just have a schedule extension.

BOS-RDU becomes 6 E90s in Sep/Oct, up from 5 E90s right now. Everything else seems to be the same.

UA EWR-AUS JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4
UA EWR-BDL JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3
UA EWR-BTV JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 5>6 OCT 5>6
UA EWR-BUF JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7 SEP 6>7 OCT 6>7
UA EWR-CHS JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4
UA EWR-CLE JUN 6>7 JUL 5>7 AUG 5>7
UA EWR-CMH JUN 6>8 JUL 6>8 AUG 6>8 SEP 6>8 OCT 6>8
UA EWR-CVG JUN 5>6 SEP 5>6
UA EWR-DAY JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 OCT 3>2
UA EWR-GRR JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4
UA EWR-GSP JUL 1.9>3
UA EWR-IND JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6 SEP 7>6 OCT 7>6
UA EWR-LAS JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6 SEP 7>6 OCT 7>6
UA EWR-MHT JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3 OCT 4>3
UA EWR-MIA JUL 4>3
UA EWR-MKE JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4
UA EWR-MSN JUN 1.2>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2
UA EWR-ORF JUN 4>6 JUL 4>6 AUG 4>6 SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5
UA EWR-PHX JUN 4>3 JUL 4>2
UA EWR-PWM JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 5>6 OCT 5>6
UA EWR-RDU JUN 8>9 JUL 8>9 AUG 8>9 SEP 8>9 OCT 8>9
UA EWR-RIC JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 5>6 OCT 5>6
UA EWR-SEA JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4
UA EWR-SYR JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5
UA EWR-YYZ JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 OCT 5>4

on separate topic, a lot of increases by UA at EWR. I guess part of Scott Kirby's move to grab back natural market share.

Thanks, enilria. As usual, we all appreciate the post every Sunday.

It is a seasonal adjustment.

ORD, for some screwed up reason, is operated as a seasonal city for B6. The season runs May-Oct in past years. If that is any guide, by Nov, B6 will run 3 daily to BOS and 2 daily to JFK.

One year, they ran the third daily to JFK thru Dec.

Shields wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

- CRJ --> CR7/9 upguages on routes such as CVG-PHL/BWI/STL/RDU

Just curious--when do these upgauges begin? Thanks!

PHL goes 3xCR9 in March through early April
BWI gets 1xCR9 and 1xCRJ in April before going 3xCRJ in May
RDU goes 2xCR9 effective June
STL goes 1xCR9 and 1xCRJ effective June

CairnterriAIR wrote:

SCHATC422 wrote:

Great news for BDL and AC.... BDL-YUL is down to 2 daily but up-gauged to Dash 8's instead and no more Beech 1900's at BDL. YYZ went to 4x daily all Dash 8 and no more 1900's. Great news for BDL and is a sign AC is doing great there!

Air Canada has served BDL for ages and before Aer Lingus started service here, the running joke was that AC put the “international” in Bradley International. Indeed they do quite well here even subbing Canadair jets in from time to time.

The CRJ subs were to make up for (many) Beech cancellations.

Remember when BDL-YYZ was two Convairs and three F27s each weekday.

UPNYGuy wrote:

I’m 50/50 on if Primera has sustainability in Boston. They already pulled the plug on BOS-BHX. Norwegian and Wow provide ‘ulcc’ service into London. Wow of course requires a KEF stop, but they will soon have service into LTN and LGW. One of the 3 will likely give, and I don’t see it being Wow or Norwegian.

Sustainability in BOS isn't the question. It's sustainability in cities like BHX which can probably make NYC (EWR or JFK) work, but that's about it. BOS will be a stronger station vs. IAD. IAD has a UA hub, BA at both IAD & BWI, WW at BWI, FI at IAD.

enilria wrote:

UA IAD-BNA JUL 3>2

This must be a filing error. United.com is still showing 3 r/ts. Wonder if the other IAD 3-to-2 reductions are a mistake as well? I have never seen this route in particular be as few as 2 daily and certainly not in peak summer season with European connections.

Thanks for the effort to compile this weekly report, though, enilria!