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SuperTwin
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:38 pm

Higher aircraft utilization has been a stated objective of the AC management team on the analyst calls over the years so opening a so-so route that requires an expensive asset (think brand-new 787) to sit idle for half the day before it can fly back (and bring in revenue to pay for itself) is probably not high up on the list of potential new markets.

The best WB asset utilization tends to be on flight pairings going east/west or vice versa.

Ie. Transoceanic + transcon or transoceanic + transoceanic.
SuperTwin
 
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yowza
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:59 am

Thenoflyzone wrote:
The point I'm making is that this potential flight has a lot of hurdles to overcome just to brake even, much less make a profit. Instead, why not use those 2 dreamliners and start another route than could potentially make more money, all the while tying up that plane for less time.

For sure this route is a stretch, I was just trying drum up some ideas. Let's see if anything comes to fruition.

YOWza
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:25 am

izbtmnhd wrote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Canada_Rouge

Yeah, when you find yourself citing Wikipedia, you should probably have enough sense to stop what you're doing.

But that said: they can label/market it however they wish, but a quick look at CTA Decision 470-A in 2012 shows that "816" was set up as a separate entity to provide aircraft and pilots to AC to operate under its license until an independent designation ("RV") could be gained, then it would operate as its own entity.

So, again, going back to the original post-- the reason they're treating it like a separate airline; is because it is one.
Though why that seems to spin you into an emotional tizzy, is anyone's guess. :roll:
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
airgeekteen
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:21 pm

I think we see YYZ-GIG first.
 
keitherson
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:23 pm

AC/RV is flying YVR-DUB and YVR-LGW with no barely any feed on both ends and you guys are shooting down YVR-GRU?

I'd imagine YVR-SCL-GRU-YVR working extremely well. Students, mining traffic, some business traffic, tourists. Even summer snowboarders!
 
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longhauler
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:36 pm

airgeekteen wrote:
I think we see YYZ-GIG first.

That would be my guess. Especially as YVR-YYZ-GIG is only about 200 miles longer than YVR-GIG. And, with the late evening departures out of YYZ to South America, connections are a breeze.

keitherson wrote:
AC/RV is flying YVR-DUB and YVR-LGW with no barely any feed on both ends and you guys are shooting down YVR-GRU?
I'd imagine YVR-SCL-GRU-YVR working extremely well. Students, mining traffic, some business traffic, tourists. Even summer snowboarders!


As many have said above, Air Canada (for example) already know exactly how many people wish to fly from YVR to South America.

Out of curiosity, I checked the passenger loads this evening on YYZ to LIM, BOG, SCL, GRU, EZE, etc. While the flights are all full, most are these days, I found the connection demographic quite surprising. Yes, there were maybe a couple dozen connections from western Canada, but, by a very wide margin most of the connections were from the United States.

There does not appear to be a lot of YVR-South America traffic.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
Dominion301
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:59 pm

keitherson wrote:
AC/RV is flying YVR-DUB and YVR-LGW with no barely any feed on both ends and you guys are shooting down YVR-GRU?

I'd imagine YVR-SCL-GRU-YVR working extremely well. Students, mining traffic, some business traffic, tourists. Even summer snowboarders!


YVR-LGW only operated for summer 2016. It was replaced by the second daily YVR-LHR.

YVR-DUB would have a lot of feed on the YVR end and also on the DUB end as AC and EI are codeshare partners.
 
phbfa
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:10 pm

airgeekteen wrote:
I think we see YYZ-GIG first.


Agreed. Perhaps TS will start flying YUL-GIG before AC decides to resume GIG. Time will tell.
Faire le ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre est impossible sans le Concorde.
 
AAvgeek744
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:23 pm

In the December 2017 issue of Airways Magazine (a magazine which I personally do not think is very credible), there is an article on the YVR-China connection. It touts the fact YVR would be a natural stop between northeast Asia and South America. It also states TK has shown interest in a IST-YVR-MEX route someday.
 
drgmobile
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:28 pm

winGl3t wrote:
Could a winter seasonal (2 weekly) YVR-GIG work on Rouge? I bet their 763 can not do it though. I'd hope for a return of YYZ-GIG first, even if it's winter seasonal on a Canadian LCC.

YVR-GRU would be a long flight with no business demand, only leisure from Brazil POS.


It would get a lot of feed from Asia, particularly if Transit Without visa is expanded. It would draw in traffic from the Pacific Northwest also.
 
airgeekteen
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:59 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
In the December 2017 issue of Airways Magazine (a magazine which I personally do not think is very credible), there is an article on the YVR-China connection. It touts the fact YVR would be a natural stop between northeast Asia and South America. It also states TK has shown interest in a IST-YVR-MEX route someday.
There are at least 20 better cities in TK's network for a stop between IST and MEX than YVR: MIA, YYZ, LHR, CDG, ATL, etc... YVR is quite far from the great circle route.
 
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longhauler
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:12 pm

AAvgeek744 wrote:
In the December 2017 issue of Airways Magazine (a magazine which I personally do not think is very credible), there is an article on the YVR-China connection. It touts the fact YVR would be a natural stop between northeast Asia and South America.

I am not sure what Airways thinks "natural" would be, but ... HKG-YVR-GIG is about 400 miles longer than HKG-YYZ-GIG!
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
C010T3
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:27 pm

Well, I am not here to defend YVR as a gateway to Asia from South America, but I am only seeing how the great circle route is used as an argument, but the scheduling particularities are not being taken in consideration.

Which gateway is superior in terms of offering prime time scheduling for every segment of a South America-Canada-Asia flight?
 
AAvgeek744
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:45 pm

longhauler wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
In the December 2017 issue of Airways Magazine (a magazine which I personally do not think is very credible), there is an article on the YVR-China connection. It touts the fact YVR would be a natural stop between northeast Asia and South America.

I am not sure what Airways thinks "natural" would be, but ... HKG-YVR-GIG is about 400 miles longer than HKG-YYZ-GIG![/quote

The article didn't name specific cities. They only did so on the TK statement. It's not a credible source in my opinion, just posting that tidbit since it was the topic of this thread.
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:30 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Canada_Rouge

Yeah, when you find yourself citing Wikipedia, you should probably have enough sense to stop what you're doing.

But that said: they can label/market it however they wish, but a quick look at CTA Decision 470-A in 2012 shows that "816" was set up as a separate entity to provide aircraft and pilots to AC to operate under its license until an independent designation ("RV") could be gained, then it would operate as its own entity.

So, again, going back to the original post-- the reason they're treating it like a separate airline; is because it is one.
Though why that seems to spin you into an emotional tizzy, is anyone's guess. :roll:


It is a separate airline and a wholly owned subsidiary of AC. That's why I called it a "separate" airline. Like I posted before -- context. I can't make it any simpler for you. Please, stop.
 
incitatus
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:40 pm

These natural distance advantages of hundreds of miles in distance can be easily erased by connection times.

Looking at July 2018 AC flights from Asia come into Vancouver at different times in the morning, starting at 9:15 am ICN to 11:45 am TPE. That is not counting HKG that comes in late afternoon. If AC wants to feed a Brazil flight from most of Asia, it will have to leave YVR at about 1:30 pm. There will be some 4-hour connections. Even a 1000-mile detour can have shorter total travel time.
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Thenoflyzone
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:03 pm

C010T3 wrote:
but I am only seeing how the great circle route is used as an argument, but the scheduling particularities are not being taken in consideration.


great circle route
stage length (YVR-GRU is a 13 hour flight)
poor aircraft utilization, with a huge down time in GRU (greater than YYZ)
lack of O&D

need more?

incitatus wrote:
These natural distance advantages of hundreds of miles in distance can be easily erased by connection times.

Looking at July 2018 AC flights from Asia come into Vancouver at different times in the morning, starting at 9:15 am ICN to 11:45 am TPE. That is not counting HKG that comes in late afternoon. If AC wants to feed a Brazil flight from most of Asia, it will have to leave YVR at about 1:30 pm. There will be some 4-hour connections. Even a 1000-mile detour can have shorter total travel time.


ok, let's consider that.......

If you leave YVR at 1h30pm, you're landing in GRU at around 7h30 am lcl. Assuming you want to arrive back in YVR at around 10am lcl (to minimize connection times to all those Asian flights, which leave YVR around noon or 1 pm), that means you would need to leave GRU at 2 am. Basically, that aircraft will be on the ground at GRU for over 18 hours.

You're so called connection time advantage just shot to sh*t AC's aircraft utilization. If you optimize connections, you're screwing your aircraft down time. There is no win-win here. It's always a win-lose. This is why you dont see many west coast-Brazil flights.

These flights only make sense if there is significant O&D. Nothing else.

YYZ's ICN and HND flights arrive around 4h30 pm. The flights from PVG, HKG and PEK arrive around 6 or 7 pm. The GRU flight leaves around 11h30 pm (and only spends 10 hours on the ground in GRU, compared to a potential 18hr from YVR). Connection times aren't that bad for the Chinese flights, slightly long from Japan. To shave that by a couple of hours, your're sacrificing 8 hours of down time in GRU. That doesn't make much sense, considering AC can do a lot with a dreamliner in that time frame.
Last edited by Thenoflyzone on Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:24 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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notconcerned
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:17 pm

incitatus wrote:
These natural distance advantages of hundreds of miles in distance can be easily erased by connection times.

Looking at July 2018 AC flights from Asia come into Vancouver at different times in the morning, starting at 9:15 am ICN to 11:45 am TPE. That is not counting HKG that comes in late afternoon. If AC wants to feed a Brazil flight from most of Asia, it will have to leave YVR at about 1:30 pm. There will be some 4-hour connections. Even a 1000-mile detour can have shorter total travel time.


The most natural distance for Asia-Brazil is through Middle East hubs. Not only are they shorter distance than YVR, EK already has optimized schedule for Asia flights to arrive between 5-6am and onward DXB-GRU fligth at 9am. AC is not only competing with ME3 and US hubs, and they might potentially cannibalize their Asia-YYZ-Brazil traffic. Along with poor aircraft utilization that others have pointed out.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:41 am

longhauler wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
In the December 2017 issue of Airways Magazine (a magazine which I personally do not think is very credible), there is an article on the YVR-China connection. It touts the fact YVR would be a natural stop between northeast Asia and South America.

I am not sure what Airways thinks "natural" would be, but ... HKG-YVR-GIG is about 400 miles longer than HKG-YYZ-GIG!

A lot of that is because people tend to view flight profiles as east-west operations... not sure why, but it's pretty common.

Same reason so many people in the eastern USA believe that you have to go to the west coast to get to Asia, when going via NYC/ORD/DTW/etc is often a far more efficient routing.


izbtmnhd wrote:
It is a separate airline and a wholly owned subsidiary of AC. That's why I called it a "separate" airline. Like I posted before -- context. I can't make it any simpler for you.

Meh, there's a lot of things you can't do. That much is clear. :razz:

But again: all I did was remind you that they're treated like a separate airline because they are one.
Why is that sending you into conniptions?!


notconcerned wrote:
The most natural distance for Asia-Brazil is through Middle East hubs.

That's not true at all. If anything, New York is the optimal gateway by distance for Brazil-Asia, especially for Japan. For China it'd be Spain. For Singapore it'd be South Africa.

Plenty of variance.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Thenoflyzone
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:13 pm

Speaking of 18 hour ground time....

http://onemileatatime.boardingarea.com/ ... mi-flight/

WOW Air launched this route on April 5, 2017, meaning that it will be canceled just a bit over a year after it started. WOW Air has flown this route three times weekly with an Airbus A330, using the following schedule:

WW131 Reykjavik to Miami departing 6:30PM arriving 10:30PM
WW132 Miami to Reykjavik departing 4:30PM arriving 4:05AM (+1 day)

As you can see, the aircraft utilization for this route is pretty bad, as the plane sits on the ground in Miami for 18 hours.
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Jayce
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:29 pm

The excessive ground time could be mitigated if the aircraft rotates with a YYZ service. Not sure how that would work out timing-wise with a YYZ flight though.
"Trying is the first step towards failure" -Homer Simpson
 
ddp
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:15 pm

YVR has been wanting flights to Brazil for years. Expect them to offer a major incentive to get a route going.

This past year Montreal added a flight to Lima Peru, which seemed out of nowhere. So Could see AC taking a shot with YVR to Brazil and timing it will to China, Japan and South Korea.
 
Thenoflyzone
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Re: New non-stop flights between YVR and Brazil 'imminent' after recent visa changes

Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:13 pm

ddp wrote:
YVR has been wanting flights to Brazil for years. Expect them to offer a major incentive to get a route going.

This past year Montreal added a flight to Lima Peru, which seemed out of nowhere. So Could see AC taking a shot with YVR to Brazil and timing it will to China, Japan and South Korea.


The major differences being, YUL-LIM is on rouge, which is not possible on YVR-GRU; It's much shorter than YVR-GRU, is a quick turn around flight, and serves mostly O&D.

These 4 points help AC keep the costs down and maximize revenue. The same can't be said of a potential YVR-GRU flight.
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