Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
alan3
Topic Author
Posts: 422
Joined: Sat Apr 12, 2014 6:13 am

Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:04 pm

I was just wondering about Plus Ultra and their long haul flights to Latin America. Where do those pax come from (business or leisure) is there really a market for 3 long haul Spanish airlines to Latam.....? (actually 5 if you include Level and Wamos)

And that's not even including competition from Latin American airlines on the same routes.
 
User avatar
LTU932
Posts: 13726
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:34 am

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:32 pm

If you're talking about North and Central America, only MEX, SJO and PTY have daily flights on IB (MEX even twice daily). Other places like SAP, GUA and SAL don't have that luxury, not to mention MGA. GUA and SAL are five times a week on IB in a triangular routing, SAP has currently Air Europa, GUA has also seasonal Wamos flights.

MGA has nothing right now. It's either transit via the US (which requires a transit visa), or connecting via GUA, SAL or PTY. Flying via SJO may also be complicated out of MGA due to Costa Rica requiring visas from Nicaraguans (though I dunno if DGME also requires transit visas from them), though there are suggestions of IB launching MGA possibly on a triangular routing. That routing may not include SJO as a stopover point probably because of said visa requirements.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
continental004
Posts: 439
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:53 pm

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:06 pm

LTU932 wrote:
If you're talking about North and Central America, only MEX, SJO and PTY have daily flights on IB (MEX even twice daily). Other places like SAP, GUA and SAL don't have that luxury, not to mention MGA. GUA and SAL are five times a week on IB in a triangular routing, SAP has currently Air Europa, GUA has also seasonal Wamos flights.

MGA has nothing right now. It's either transit via the US (which requires a transit visa), or connecting via GUA, SAL or PTY. Flying via SJO may also be complicated out of MGA due to Costa Rica requiring visas from Nicaraguans (though I dunno if DGME also requires transit visas from them), though there are suggestions of IB launching MGA possibly on a triangular routing. That routing may not include SJO as a stopover point probably because of said visa requirements.


IB will be starting MGA via GUA this summer. Those flights will serve GUA nonstop from Madrid.
 
2travel2know2
Posts: 2967
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 3:01 pm

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:07 pm

There might be some over-supply between MAD and Latin America, however, it's quite possible there's room for some BCN/AGP - Latinamerica, obviously IB may not be so interested.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
User avatar
LTU932
Posts: 13726
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:34 am

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:18 pm

2travel2know2 wrote:
There might be some over-supply between MAD and Latin America, however, it's quite possible there's room for some BCN/AGP - Latinamerica, obviously IB may not be so interested.
Because just as BA is also known as London Airways, you could call Iberia Madrid Airlines. :stirthepot:

That's where UX and maybe local Latin American airlines such as LA or AV come in. They could fill the gap if they want.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
User avatar
Mistral1
Posts: 86
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 3:15 pm

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:45 am

Plus Ultra will axe SCL this year due to its financial problems and poor service, travel agencies in Santiago already stopped selling tickets from this company, so there is room for Air Europa to enter that market again.
 
User avatar
LTU932
Posts: 13726
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:34 am

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:58 am

Mistral1 wrote:
Plus Ultra will axe SCL this year due to its financial problems and poor service, travel agencies in Santiago already stopped selling tickets from this company, so there is room for Air Europa to enter that market again.
Personally, I'd be careful if I book longhaul with a Spanish airline other than IB or UX (Level probably being an exception because it's IAG owned). All I can say is: Air Comet and Air Madrid. Those in the CentAm aviation thread will know what I mean. Especially Air Madrid was a huge fiasco and I was eventually glad that IB was the first big airline to start scheduled nonstop SJO-Europe flights (back then as MAD-GUA-SJO-MAD and also MAD-SJO-PTY-MAD).

10-12 years later and SJO has pretty much half of IAG present with nonstops at SJO (specifically IB and BA), not to mention AF going twice weekly yearround in March and KL expanding their seasonal service for next November (next winter, AF-KL is going daily overall, 4x AF and 3x KL), along with LH Group (WK out of ZRH and starting March LH via FRA), not to mention the European presence PTY has built up over the years. It shows not only how PTY (O&D and connections) and SJO (O&D) have grown as destinations, but also how much competition IB has to face now.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
dcajet
Posts: 4728
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:03 am

Mistral1 wrote:
Plus Ultra will axe SCL this year due to its financial problems and poor service, travel agencies in Santiago already stopped selling tickets from this company, so there is room for Air Europa to enter that market again.


Anyone surprised? Didn't think so. Plus Ultra has Air Madrid's fingerprints all over itself - including some of their management.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
2travel2know2
Posts: 2967
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 3:01 pm

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:16 am

LTU932 wrote:
Because just as BA is also known as London Airways, you could call Iberia Madrid Airlines. :stirthepot:

That's where UX and maybe local Latin American airlines such as LA or AV come in. They could fill the gap if they want.

Calling BA London Airways and IB Madrid Airlines is a way to put it, but, both BA and IB belong to the same OneWorld Aliance as LATAM and AA. This would mean that flights between their hubs and airports other than LHR and MAD in the UK respective Spain may be operated by those airlines.
Still, I find it odd that there's no BA MAN-JFK/MIA or IB AGP/BCN-JFK/MIA/GRU.
AV has a lot of potential with BOG-BCN/AGP even BOG-SCQ/VLC and BOG-TFS/LPA (depending which island has the most demand).
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
mabadia71
Posts: 62
Joined: Thu Nov 06, 2008 12:02 am

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:18 am

LTU932 wrote:
MGA has nothing right now. It's either transit via the US (which requires a transit visa), or connecting via GUA, SAL or PTY. Flying via SJO may also be complicated out of MGA due to Costa Rica requiring visas from Nicaraguans (though I dunno if DGME also requires transit visas from them), though there are suggestions of IB launching MGA possibly on a triangular routing. That routing may not include SJO as a stopover point probably because of said visa requirements.


After a quick check with IATA it appears the Nicaraguans do not need a transit visa to connect in SJO. Additionally, while I have never connected in SJO, I'm 99% sure there's no need to pass immigration unless you need to pick up you bag and drop it off again in the check in counters. There's a international connections "hallway" which connects the arrivals sterile are with the departures sterile area, you just have to reclear security.
mabadia71
 
dcajet
Posts: 4728
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:45 am

2travel2know2 wrote:
AV has a lot of potential with BOG-BCN/AGP even BOG-SCQ/VLC and BOG-TFS/LPA (depending which island has the most demand).


From the Americas, any long haul route from/to Spain, outside of Madrid is, basically, a low yielding route, except from some routes to the US (such as JFK-AGP/VLC) during the summer only. Not even Iberia, with its brand preference in Spain, touches BCN with a ten foot pole - it had to come up with a low cost airline before it decided to embark on its BCN long haul adventures.

I am not familiar with Avianca and its tolerance for these rather marginal routes, but they sure seem like a recipe to bleed red ink. Surely AV has got to have more profitable places in Europe where to send those 787s.

Now, I can see Norwegian (and its lower costs) out of its EZE base opening routes such as AGP and SCQ, and from BCN to other Latin American cities. From EZE, they hold the authority for AGP and, for SCQ, they have the largest Galician diaspora outside of Spain that can provide a steady stream of customers, if not high yields.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
User avatar
LTU932
Posts: 13726
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 12:34 am

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:02 am

mabadia71 wrote:
After a quick check with IATA it appears the Nicaraguans do not need a transit visa to connect in SJO. Additionally, while I have never connected in SJO, I'm 99% sure there's no need to pass immigration unless you need to pick up you bag and drop it off again in the check in counters. There's a international connections "hallway" which connects the arrivals sterile are with the departures sterile area, you just have to reclear security.
So, as long as everything is in the same itinerary or if there's interlining in place, no transit visa is required, otherwise they'd probably still have to request one if they have to pass through immigration even if just to recheck their bags.

I've seen the flight connection signs in SJO, but I believe (and I may be wrong) that they'd still go through the immigration area. I never connected in SJO, plus citizens have their own lines anyway, but I also wonder how connecting in SJO works, or if the flight continues on (e.g. like those many CM flights that stop over in SJO), if they stay in the aircraft. All I know is that connecting in SJO is not as easy as connecting in PTY, where you get out, go to the next gate and that's it (unless it's to a flight to the US, where you'd probably face a secondary security check airside).
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5811
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:59 am

European traffic to LATAM is much more reliant on UX/IB than on BA to the US.

While the US is well connected from almost anywhere in Europe (see FRA or CDG), this is not the case for LATAM. Outside MAD, connections to LATAM are far and between.

IB/UX from MAD to Europe usually carry a lot of connecting PAX to LATAM. And then O&D is by far the largest in Europe.
 
r2rho
Posts: 3096
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 10:13 pm

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:04 pm

A quick look at fares to LatAm suggest quite the opposite.
As for Plus Ultra... aren't the guys responsible for Air Madrid behind this airline? That pretty much sums it up.
Level is simply IB operating under a different brand, it is not (currently) an airline, and is part of IAG.
And Wamos is primarily a niche charter operator, not a major airline.

So... de facto 2, not 5, scheduled airlines between Spain and Latam. And IB & UX complement each other in a way, with IB flying multiple dailies to the core markets, and UX serving secondary destinations not always daily.

And once again, fares are a great indicator of overcapacity, and Spain-Latam has high fares and high load factors, which would not suggest overcapacity.
 
bogota
Posts: 673
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:10 am

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:19 pm

dcajet wrote:
I am not familiar with Avianca and its tolerance for these rather marginal routes, but they sure seem like a recipe to bleed red ink. Surely AV has got to have more profitable places in Europe where to send those 787s.


Avianca flies almost 3 daily B787 to MAD plus daily to BCN. They did in the past fly to ALC but it did not work for them. Plans for AV is a daily to MUC as of mid year, which together with the daily LHR is the airlines operation into Europe. Plenty of other higher yielding routes come to mind before smaller Spanish destinations in my opinion.
 
oldannyboy
Posts: 2580
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:28 am

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:29 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
European traffic to LATAM is much more reliant on UX/IB than on BA to the US.

While the US is well connected from almost anywhere in Europe (see FRA or CDG), this is not the case for LATAM. Outside MAD, connections to LATAM are far and between.

IB/UX from MAD to Europe usually carry a lot of connecting PAX to LATAM. And then O&D is by far the largest in Europe.


Indeed. MAD is the de-facto 'gateway' to LatAm for the entire European continent.
 
bogota
Posts: 673
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:10 am

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:32 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
European traffic to LATAM is much more reliant on UX/IB than on BA to the US.

While the US is well connected from almost anywhere in Europe (see FRA or CDG), this is not the case for LATAM. Outside MAD, connections to LATAM are far and between.

IB/UX from MAD to Europe usually carry a lot of connecting PAX to LATAM. And then O&D is by far the largest in Europe.


I do not think there is that much difference between the US being London centric and LATAM being MAD centric. Just like in the US where most medium cities are just connected to LHR and large cities are connected to many other cities same happens in our region where most smaller cities are just connected to MAD and the larger cities are connected to most larger airports in Europe.

GIG, GRU, EZE, SCL, LIM, BOG, PTY and MEX have quite a bit of flights outside of MAD, smaller markets like REC, MVD, VVI, CLO, MDE, SJO, GUA are less connected although some of them have more flights than just MAD.

Obviously taking into account that US is a very wealthy market there are plenty more flights, but proportionally I think it is very similar. The operations of LH, AF, KL is quite large in LATAM.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5811
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:57 pm

bogota wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
European traffic to LATAM is much more reliant on UX/IB than on BA to the US.

While the US is well connected from almost anywhere in Europe (see FRA or CDG), this is not the case for LATAM. Outside MAD, connections to LATAM are far and between.

IB/UX from MAD to Europe usually carry a lot of connecting PAX to LATAM. And then O&D is by far the largest in Europe.


I do not think there is that much difference between the US being London centric and LATAM being MAD centric. Just like in the US where most medium cities are just connected to LHR and large cities are connected to many other cities same happens in our region where most smaller cities are just connected to MAD and the larger cities are connected to most larger airports in Europe.

GIG, GRU, EZE, SCL, LIM, BOG, PTY and MEX have quite a bit of flights outside of MAD, smaller markets like REC, MVD, VVI, CLO, MDE, SJO, GUA are less connected although some of them have more flights than just MAD.

Obviously taking into account that US is a very wealthy market there are plenty more flights, but proportionally I think it is very similar. The operations of LH, AF, KL is quite large in LATAM.


Well no... it is not only IB and UX but the Latin American carriers flying to Madrid as well. According to Wiki. For BOG in 2016, largest European markets:

Madrid, Spain 643.550
Paris, France 168.028
Barcelona, Spain 167.184
Frankfurt, Germany 150.799
London–Heathrow, United Kingdom 149.494
Amsterdam, The Netherlands 80.281
Istanbul–Atatürk, Turkey 29.427


So in 2016, MAD-BOG had the same amount of PAX as the 4 next airports combined (Paris, Barcelona, Frankfurt and London). Roughly 50% of the capacity BOG-Europe was on BOG-MAD. With Avianca adding more destinations, this might change a bit, however MAD dominates overwhelmingly in BOG.
 
bogota
Posts: 673
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:10 am

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:48 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Well no... it is not only IB and UX but the Latin American carriers flying to Madrid as well. According to Wiki. For BOG in 2016, largest European markets:

So in 2016, MAD-BOG had the same amount of PAX as the 4 next airports combined (Paris, Barcelona, Frankfurt and London). Roughly 50% of the capacity BOG-Europe was on BOG-MAD. With Avianca adding more destinations, this might change a bit, however MAD dominates overwhelmingly in BOG.


Yes BOG has almost 6 flights a day to MAD and it is for MAD the second busiest transatlantic destination after EZE and above JFK. Same can probably be said about city pairs in the US with LHR. Nobody is saying it is not MAD centric, just that it is very similar to the US being LHR centric. How many flights a day do BA/VS fly into the US everyday, how many flights a day from the US airlines fly into London a day? No other airport in Europe comes close to that number of flights. And obviously here we are connecting two of the wealthiest parts in the world vs LATAM being a developing economy where flights are much fewer. Just BA/AA operate 15 flights a day between London and JFK and BA operates to 22 cities in the USA, plus all other airlines. Maybe I am wrong but other airports in Europe do not seem to come close to this ammount of flights into the USA.
 
2travel2know2
Posts: 2967
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 3:01 pm

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:12 pm

bogota wrote:
Avianca flies almost 3 daily B787 to MAD plus daily to BCN. They did in the past fly to ALC but it did not work for them. Plans for AV is a daily to MUC as of mid year, which together with the daily LHR is the airlines operation into Europe. Plenty of other higher yielding routes come to mind before smaller Spanish destinations in my opinion.
IMHO, If AV is looking for other Spanish cities VLC or AGP might work better for AV than ALC; SCQ and TFS/LPA should be considered too.
Not sure if AV to LIS might work, even if that'd be a link between 2 Star Alliance hubs.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5811
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:33 pm

2travel2know2 wrote:
bogota wrote:
Avianca flies almost 3 daily B787 to MAD plus daily to BCN. They did in the past fly to ALC but it did not work for them. Plans for AV is a daily to MUC as of mid year, which together with the daily LHR is the airlines operation into Europe. Plenty of other higher yielding routes come to mind before smaller Spanish destinations in my opinion.
IMHO, If AV is looking for other Spanish cities VLC or AGP might work better for AV than ALC; SCQ and TFS/LPA should be considered too.
Not sure if AV to LIS might work, even if that'd be a link between 2 Star Alliance hubs.


IMO SCQ-LATAM is overestimated. Most of that traffic flies maybe once a year in summer and newer generations have less links to Spain. Also it is quite dispersed (Venezuela, Argentina, Mexico...). What moves traffic to LATAM (VFR) is Latin Americans living in Spain; not the other way around. I am sure even in Galicia (which has a relatively low number of Latin Americans living there), there are more Latin Americans living in Galicia travelling home to LATAM than Galicians living in LATAM travelling home to Spain.

ALC was set because there is a large Colombian community there (and in Valencia) yet it seems not enough. I would have even more doubts about AGP, there are few Latin Americans living in Andalusia.

Regarding SCQ, the most feasible link would be something to NYC on a narrow-body (very long shot). Certainly Spain is not Mexico for Americans, but more than 2 million Americans visit Spain every year, and those figures have been growing double digit in the last few years. And the Camino attracts more and more American and Asian tourists. And like anyone in Europe, everybody fancies a visit to NY. But very long shot and I doubt this would be feasible.

I doubt more links to LATAM will be established outside MAD/BCN in the near future, the market is not there and is very price sensitive. Also high-speed trains connect now MAD with basically anywhere in 2-3 hours, and coach buses in 5-6 hours and are very cheap. Even Barcelona somehow struggles with LATAM service. Maybe the Canary Islands on a narrow body.

To the US is a very different story. I think a number of medium-sized cities in Spain (Alicante/Valencia, Malaga/Sevilla, Bilbao, Palma de Mallorca, Ibiza) could easily have narrow-body flights to the New York area and maybe South Florida, at least seasonally.
 
bogota
Posts: 673
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:10 am

Re: Plus Ultra vs UX & IB...oversupply on Spain to Latam?

Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:38 pm

2travel2know2 wrote:
bogota wrote:
Avianca flies almost 3 daily B787 to MAD plus daily to BCN. They did in the past fly to ALC but it did not work for them. Plans for AV is a daily to MUC as of mid year, which together with the daily LHR is the airlines operation into Europe. Plenty of other higher yielding routes come to mind before smaller Spanish destinations in my opinion.
IMHO, If AV is looking for other Spanish cities VLC or AGP might work better for AV than ALC; SCQ and TFS/LPA should be considered too.
Not sure if AV to LIS might work, even if that'd be a link between 2 Star Alliance hubs.


I do not think AV is considering other Spanish destinations at the moment, maybe increase in flights in the future to MAD or BCN if the bilateral would permit it. For the time being MUC is next, LIS is a logical Star Alliance connection point but without a triangular routing as before (when TAP operated LIS- BOG-PTY-LIS) which always detters higher yielding pax. I can also see AV thinking in the future fights to other large metro areas in Europe like Paris or Rome before smaller cities in Spain.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos