Newbiepilot
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737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:23 pm

Boeing announced that the 737-10 reached a design milestone at Singapore Airshow

The upcoming Boeing 737 Max 10 has reached firm design configuration, the company announced at the Singapore Airshow Wednesday. The milestone ushers in the start of the program’s detailed design phase, as the company looks toward first delivery in 2020 to one of 18 customers that have committed to 416 of the airplanes since its launch at last year’s Paris Air Show.

There were also some comments that I found interesting. In addition to having 18 customers for 416 planes, Randy said that most were completely new.

Boeing vice president of marketing Randy Tinseth noted that although a small proportion of the new orders and commitments represent transfers from another Max derivative, most notably the Max 9, most were completely new, suggesting that the Max 10 has not significantly cannibalized demand for the smaller variant.

To me, most means more than half. That goes against some posts I have read on this forum that imply most were conversions.

And finally he commented on he breakdown between Models. Airbus seems to be predicting 50 50 for A320neo vs A321neo. Looks like Boeing is predicting more of the smaller airplanes will be sold. Perhaps that is due to the A321Neo performance and range or possibly because Boeing may soon launch a new airplane that will take some orders that would have gone to the larger 737

Addressing the demand mix for the Max family, Tinseth estimated that between 60 and 65 percent of orders will go to the baseline Max 8; 20 to 25 percent to the Max 9 and 10; and roughly 10 percent “on the lower end of that market,” namely the Max 7


https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... figuration

Interesting food for thought. I am curious how others interpret this
 
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keesje
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:15 pm

Interesting !

Looking from a number of customers perspective, Lion, UA and GECAS converting -9's to -10's is less then 20% of the customers!

:checkmark:

416 is great, specially when the -9 order book survived

:checkmark:
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rj777
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:58 pm

So what's the landing gear configuration then?
 
WIederling
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:25 pm

rj777 wrote:
So what's the landing gear configuration then?


High heels. :-)

Looks like Randy is "just hanging on". He also seems to have made some gaffe when
waxing lyrical on 737 production stating that the MAX is the most produced NB frame in 2017.

( This goes hand in hand with Wikipedia:EN moving off A320NEO numbers into its own page
while handling the A320family page now as an A320CEO page while MAX numbers are integrally
reported on the 737 page. this in scope of A320 CEO to NEO changes being miniscule in relation
to the changes done on the NG to MAX )
Murphy is an optimist
 
iceberg210
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:43 pm

keesje wrote:
Interesting !

Looking from a number of customers perspective, Lion, UA and GECAS converting -9's to -10's is less then 20% of the customers!

:checkmark:

416 is great, specially when the -9 order book survived

:checkmark:

I'd love to see Boeing do a breakdown by model 7 8 9 10, the whole mystery surrounding the model breakdown gets annoying especially in trying to figure out how the 9 and 10 are effecting each other. Anyone keeping track at home? (outside of wikipedia or deliveries etc). Wonder if Boeing will finally break them down once a MAX that isn't an 8 is delivered.
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Newbiepilot
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:56 pm

iceberg210 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Interesting !

Looking from a number of customers perspective, Lion, UA and GECAS converting -9's to -10's is less then 20% of the customers!

:checkmark:

416 is great, specially when the -9 order book survived

:checkmark:

I'd love to see Boeing do a breakdown by model 7 8 9 10, the whole mystery surrounding the model breakdown gets annoying especially in trying to figure out how the 9 and 10 are effecting each other. Anyone keeping track at home? (outside of wikipedia or deliveries etc). Wonder if Boeing will finally break them down once a MAX that isn't an 8 is delivered.


From what i heard, airlines dont have to break down their order by model when placing it. Prices for multiple models are in the original contract. There may not actually be a list beyond 1 year since airlines have not decided as they adjust to market demands
 
iceberg210
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:14 pm

Very interesting, I didn't know if things were placeheld as MAX or place held with the anticipated model. Guess we'll find out as they get delivered, should be very interesting couple years down the road what the mix will be, my hunch is the 10 will only be outsold by the 8.
Erik Berg
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:51 pm

rj777 wrote:
So what's the landing gear configuration then?


I'd love to see the old 727 main gears adapted to the MAX10 :)
 
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:10 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
Addressing the demand mix for the Max family, Tinseth estimated that between 60 and 65 percent of orders will go to the baseline Max 8; 20 to 25 percent to the Max 9 and 10; and roughly 10 percent “on the lower end of that market,” namely the Max 7



Does anyone think he really believes that 10% of the Max sales will be for the 7? It seems quite unlikely to me that he even believes what he is saying.
 
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Polot
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:30 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Addressing the demand mix for the Max family, Tinseth estimated that between 60 and 65 percent of orders will go to the baseline Max 8; 20 to 25 percent to the Max 9 and 10; and roughly 10 percent “on the lower end of that market,” namely the Max 7



Does anyone think he really believes that 10% of the Max sales will be for the 7? It seems quite unlikely to me that he even believes what he is saying.

10% sounds like a lot but really isn’t. It currently has just over 10% right now, and there will likely be occasional BBJs and small orders from airlines.

To put that percentage in perspective, the number of 736s built is almost exactly 10% of the current total 737NG orderbook.

I think he is underestimating 737-10 sales some, but he also knows more about where Boeing’s head is at in regards to the MoM and it’s specifications than we do.
 
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:42 pm

Polot wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Addressing the demand mix for the Max family, Tinseth estimated that between 60 and 65 percent of orders will go to the baseline Max 8; 20 to 25 percent to the Max 9 and 10; and roughly 10 percent “on the lower end of that market,” namely the Max 7



Does anyone think he really believes that 10% of the Max sales will be for the 7? It seems quite unlikely to me that he even believes what he is saying.

10% sounds like a lot but really isn’t. It currently has just over 10% right now, and there will likely be occasional BBJs and small orders from airlines.

To put that percentage in perspective, the number of 736s built is almost exactly 10% of the current total 737NG orderbook.

I will be shocked if -7s are 10% of the MAXes.

I will also be shocked if the -9/-10 are only 25% of the orders. Short term, the -8 rules as it is the safe bet for financial companies. Once enough airlines buy the -10 and possibly -9,we will see a shift.

Every PIP reduces the cost of flying the larger models more than the lighter models. Take the 739ER, the last PIP not only reduced fuel burn, but it brought up the cycle life between overhauls that cut the price difference per flight over the 738 nicely. The same was true of the 738 over the 73G a long time ago. Cycle life is a function of takeoff and climb thrust. Heavier models do not make 20k cycles. Sometimes, as in early 734s, under half the smaller models.

After the CMC PIP, I expect the -10 sales to take off.

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Newbiepilot
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:36 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Polot wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:


Does anyone think he really believes that 10% of the Max sales will be for the 7? It seems quite unlikely to me that he even believes what he is saying.

10% sounds like a lot but really isn’t. It currently has just over 10% right now, and there will likely be occasional BBJs and small orders from airlines.

To put that percentage in perspective, the number of 736s built is almost exactly 10% of the current total 737NG orderbook.

I will be shocked if -7s are 10% of the MAXes.

I will also be shocked if the -9/-10 are only 25% of the orders. Short term, the -8 rules as it is the safe bet for financial companies. Once enough airlines buy the -10 and possibly -9,we will see a shift.

Every PIP reduces the cost of flying the larger models more than the lighter models. Take the 739ER, the last PIP not only reduced fuel burn, but it brought up the cycle life between overhauls that cut the price difference per flight over the 738 nicely. The same was true of the 738 over the 73G a long time ago. Cycle life is a function of takeoff and climb thrust. Heavier models do not make 20k cycles. Sometimes, as in early 734s, under half the smaller models.

After the CMC PIP, I expect the -10 sales to take off.

Lightsaber


Fantastic insight. I hadn’t heard of engine pips affecting sales model breakdowns.

One thing to remember is that in recession, airlines tend to order smaller planes to prop up RASM by reducing capacity. If Europe or the United States get into a recession where demand drops, they may shift deliveries to smaller planes to maintain frequency without hitting yields too much.
 
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:54 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Addressing the demand mix for the Max family, Tinseth estimated that between 60 and 65 percent of orders will go to the baseline Max 8; 20 to 25 percent to the Max 9 and 10; and roughly 10 percent “on the lower end of that market,” namely the Max 7



Does anyone think he really believes that 10% of the Max sales will be for the 7? It seems quite unlikely to me that he even believes what he is saying.

I would say that depends almost entirely on WN's plans for the 737-7. Right now, it seems that they are going more for the -8.
 
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:02 pm

Polot wrote:
10% sounds like a lot but really isn’t. It currently has just over 10% right now, and there will likely be occasional BBJs and small orders from airlines.

To put that percentage in perspective, the number of 736s built is almost exactly 10% of the current total 737NG orderbook.


The 737-600 represents 1% of the total 737NG orders (69 vs. 6943, according to wikipedia, not counting BBJ frames). Perhaps you were comparing already-built 736s to the remaining 737NG orders, but that would be a pretty meaningless comparison (it would be like saying the number of 747SPs built exceeds the number of 747 classics on order, 45 to 0).

Also, the MAX 7 doesn't have "just over 10%" of the MAX order book right now. That number is closer to 1.5% of the orderbook, with Southwest already deferring the bulk of their deliveries by several years.
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:52 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
Polot wrote:
10% sounds like a lot but really isn’t. It currently has just over 10% right now, and there will likely be occasional BBJs and small orders from airlines.

To put that percentage in perspective, the number of 736s built is almost exactly 10% of the current total 737NG orderbook.


The 737-600 represents 1% of the total 737NG orders (69 vs. 6943, according to wikipedia, not counting BBJ frames). Perhaps you were comparing already-built 736s to the remaining 737NG orders, but that would be a pretty meaningless comparison (it would be like saying the number of 747SPs built exceeds the number of 747 classics on order, 45 to 0).

Also, the MAX 7 doesn't have "just over 10%" of the MAX order book right now. That number is closer to 1.5% of the orderbook, with Southwest already deferring the bulk of their deliveries by several years.

That’s what you get when you have spent all morning dealing with metric conversions and then switch to percentages. You are indeed correct.
 
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:39 pm

When airlines commit to an aircraft before the manufacturer commits to final specs, what is the airline actually committing to?
 
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keesje
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:47 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
iceberg210 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Interesting !

Looking from a number of customers perspective, Lion, UA and GECAS converting -9's to -10's is less then 20% of the customers!

:checkmark:

416 is great, specially when the -9 order book survived

:checkmark:

I'd love to see Boeing do a breakdown by model 7 8 9 10, the whole mystery surrounding the model breakdown gets annoying especially in trying to figure out how the 9 and 10 are effecting each other. Anyone keeping track at home? (outside of wikipedia or deliveries etc). Wonder if Boeing will finally break them down once a MAX that isn't an 8 is delivered.


From what i heard, airlines dont have to break down their order by model when placing it. Prices for multiple models are in the original contract. There may not actually be a list beyond 1 year since airlines have not decided as they adjust to market demands


That will make it all more interesting to know how Boeing arrives at that 416 and hopw solid that number is. It could be larger or smalller in reality.
As said it would be interesting to how how the -9 orders look if we take the 416 737-10 as starting point.

Wiki suggests there are many conversions, maybe not in terms of number of orders, but in terms number of aircraft ordered.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_737_MAX_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:12 am

Bricktop wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Addressing the demand mix for the Max family, Tinseth estimated that between 60 and 65 percent of orders will go to the baseline Max 8; 20 to 25 percent to the Max 9 and 10; and roughly 10 percent “on the lower end of that market,” namely the Max 7



Does anyone think he really believes that 10% of the Max sales will be for the 7? It seems quite unlikely to me that he even believes what he is saying.

I would say that depends almost entirely on WN's plans for the 737-7. Right now, it seems that they are going more for the -8.


I would think that there would be some demand for the MAX 7 at WN, since there are some existing routes for which an existing 73G is adequate and/or whose runways might not be able to support a 738/MAX 8. And those 73Gs won't be around forever (some of them have to be pushing 20 years old).
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:16 am

NameOmitted wrote:
When airlines commit to an aircraft before the manufacturer commits to final specs, what is the airline actually committing to?


The airline is committing to purchase an aircraft with contractually guaranteed performance. If the manufacturer can't deliver, then they are likely to pay damages as specified in the contract. Said another way:

Purchase order says what the airline will buy.

Firm configuration says how the OEM will build it.
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:01 am

keesje wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
iceberg210 wrote:
I'd love to see Boeing do a breakdown by model 7 8 9 10, the whole mystery surrounding the model breakdown gets annoying especially in trying to figure out how the 9 and 10 are effecting each other. Anyone keeping track at home? (outside of wikipedia or deliveries etc). Wonder if Boeing will finally break them down once a MAX that isn't an 8 is delivered.


From what i heard, airlines dont have to break down their order by model when placing it. Prices for multiple models are in the original contract. There may not actually be a list beyond 1 year since airlines have not decided as they adjust to market demands


That will make it all more interesting to know how Boeing arrives at that 416 and hopw solid that number is. It could be larger or smalller in reality.
As said it would be interesting to how how the -9 orders look if we take the 416 737-10 as starting point.

Wiki suggests there are many conversions, maybe not in terms of number of orders, but in terms number of aircraft ordered.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_737_MAX_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer


Given that over 30% of the orders listed on Wikipedia are unknown, it is not a particularly accurate source. I think Randy would be a better source
 
AvObserver
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:59 am

rj777 wrote:
So what's the landing gear configuration then?

That's what I'd like to know as well. We've not yet seen a detailed schematic of the aft-gear modifications; no need at this point for Boeing to keep it under wraps. Speculating it might also be offered on the MAX9 to help keep some limited demand for that variant which otherwise will likely die on the vine. Not a perfect solution but probably the only way Boeing could do a near capacity (but not range) match for the A321NEO without exorbitantly costly mods. The 132" stretch I'd like to have seen would have been a lot costlier and complex than this 66" one and no doubt the customers would have balked at what BCA would've charged for it.
 
Max Q
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:13 am

It will be interesting to see a picture of
this redesigned main gear, no description
can really do justice to how this was done
This taller gear may improve the looks of the old 73 as it always appears squat and dumpy on the ground
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:04 am

Max Q wrote:
It will be interesting to see a picture of
this redesigned main gear, no description
can really do justice to how this was done
This taller gear may improve the looks of the old 73 as it always appears squat and dumpy on the ground

From what I've read, it's not really taller, just cantilevered to improve rotation on takeoff. And this is only the aft gear that has been modified.
 
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:05 am

Max Q wrote:
It will be interesting to see a picture of
this redesigned main gear, no description
can really do justice to how this was done
This taller gear may improve the looks of the old 73 as it always appears squat and dumpy on the ground

From what I've read, it's not really taller, just cantilevered to improve rotation on takeoff. And this is only the aft gear that has been so modified.
 
Redbellyguppy
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:53 am

The max is noticeably taller when I preflight it. My landings seem flatter too because the longer nose gear touches sooner.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:11 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:

From what i heard, airlines dont have to break down their order by model when placing it. Prices for multiple models are in the original contract. There may not actually be a list beyond 1 year since airlines have not decided as they adjust to market demands


That will make it all more interesting to know how Boeing arrives at that 416 and hopw solid that number is. It could be larger or smalller in reality.
As said it would be interesting to how how the -9 orders look if we take the 416 737-10 as starting point.

Wiki suggests there are many conversions, maybe not in terms of number of orders, but in terms number of aircraft ordered.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_737_MAX_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_customer


Given that over 30% of the orders listed on Wikipedia are unknown, it is not a particularly accurate source. I think Randy would be a better source


Yea 416 737-10, some firm orders, some MoU or LoI, some new, some conversions. A source for very accurate and detailed information about orders dear Randy is.
 
WIederling
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:21 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
Given that over 30% of the orders listed on Wikipedia are unknown, it is not a particularly accurate source. I think Randy would be a better source


This is an error.

Randy is condensed PR. Much more so than the well hated John Leahy.
He will assign by insinuation some "undecided" orders to the type he wants to pimp for the moment.

Wikipedia is neutral reporter.
Except when some paid shills "improve" on content ( like reporting A320neo deliveries away from A320 family deliveries. :-)
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keesje
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:17 am

I think Randy knows best. What he communicates can be full of half truths / left outs and carefully selected number to create perceptions.
Like e.g. using the number of orders instead of number of aircraft as a measure for success.

.
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Max Q
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:11 am

Redbellyguppy wrote:
The max is noticeably taller when I preflight it. My landings seem flatter too because the longer nose gear touches sooner.


Thanks for that, do you notice the spoiler operation on approach through the ‘landing attitude modifier system’ or is that movement too small to detect ?
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jeffrey0032j
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:26 pm

keesje wrote:
I think Randy knows best. What he communicates can be full of half truths / left outs and carefully selected number to create perceptions.
Like e.g. using the number of orders instead of number of aircraft as a measure for success.

.

Not too dissimilar to Leahy, it is their job to package their words nicely anyway.
 
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Aesma
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:51 pm

So they have 2 years to do the detailed design and flight test campaign ?
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Bricktop
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:05 pm

Cast that 737-10 lure on the water and just watch the usual trout rise up. And when it's spiced with Randy? It's Christmas morning!
Randy may be a spin doctor, but he dare not outright lie. But why worry about a paper airplane in the first place? 416 orders? A rounding error in comparison!
 
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:42 pm

AvObserver wrote:
rj777 wrote:
So what's the landing gear configuration then?

That's what I'd like to know as well. We've not yet seen a detailed schematic of the aft-gear modifications; no need at this point for Boeing to keep it under wraps.

Max Q wrote:
It will be interesting to see a picture of
this redesigned main gear, no description
can really do justice to how this was done
This taller gear may improve the looks of the old 73 as it always appears squat and dumpy on the ground

Videos are better than pictures, and I doubt we'll really get schematics any time soon if ever.

TechOps: 737 MAX 10 and its levered landing gear

has as much as is publicly known on the landing gear topic.

In particular:

Stitch wrote:

And:

VSMUT wrote:
Check out the 40 sec mark in this video, and again a 1:14. It has a very slightly levered gear. The center of the wheels don't line up completely with the leg:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXpBX1Gp9p8
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:49 pm

Fascinating videos; hadn't seen that before. Wondering if that added complexity could be a potential maintenance headache later on. It doesn't seem it is/was on the other airplanes cited but it does look as if it might require added TLC compared to the standard aft landing gear.
 
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:19 pm

Regarding capacity..
737-MAX10 has a total length of 143', while the 321NEO has a total length of 146', slightly more than a seat row.

So 737-10MAX max pax capacity is stated as 130pax, whereas A321NEO is stated as 140pax, certainly more than a seat row.

It appears Airbus is doing quite a bit more packing in by employing the SpaceFlex Galleys and Lavatories . For airliners that want to provide better service and comfort (e.g. standard sized galleys and lavatories), what kind of nominal capacity differences would we see between the planes, much less than 10 I assume?
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pdt2f
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:44 pm

ODwyerPW wrote:
Regarding capacity..
737-MAX10 has a total length of 143', while the 321NEO has a total length of 146', slightly more than a seat row.

So 737-10MAX max pax capacity is stated as 130pax, whereas A321NEO is stated as 140pax, certainly more than a seat row.

It appears Airbus is doing quite a bit more packing in by employing the SpaceFlex Galleys and Lavatories . For airliners that want to provide better service and comfort (e.g. standard sized galleys and lavatories), what kind of nominal capacity differences would we see between the planes, much less than 10 I assume?


I’m assuming you meant 230 pax and 240 pax?
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bob75013
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:45 pm

ODwyerPW wrote:
Regarding capacity..
737-MAX10 has a total length of 143', while the 321NEO has a total length of 146', slightly more than a seat row.

So 737-10MAX max pax capacity is stated as 130pax, whereas A321NEO is stated as 140pax, certainly more than a seat row.

It appears Airbus is doing quite a bit more packing in by employing the SpaceFlex Galleys and Lavatories . For airliners that want to provide better service and comfort (e.g. standard sized galleys and lavatories), what kind of nominal capacity differences would we see between the planes, much less than 10 I assume?


I suspect you meant "So 737-10MAX max pax capacity is stated as 230pax, whereas A321NEO is stated as 240pax, certainly more than a seat row." as he 10Max certainly seats more than the 7Max
 
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QuarkFly
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:09 pm

I too would like to hear about the landing gear. Telescoping or wheels back behind the strut...or both?

Also the wing....I thought I heard about some changes to either the flaps or trailing edge shape.
Always take the Red Eye if possible
 
flyinggoat
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Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2013 2:38 am

Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:22 pm

Based on the landing gear video, I would say they are definitely telescopic. They also appear to be slightly levered, though the levered position doesn’t seem to change as the gear is retracted/extended.
 
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AA777223
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:19 pm

Polot wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Addressing the demand mix for the Max family, Tinseth estimated that between 60 and 65 percent of orders will go to the baseline Max 8; 20 to 25 percent to the Max 9 and 10; and roughly 10 percent “on the lower end of that market,” namely the Max 7



Does anyone think he really believes that 10% of the Max sales will be for the 7? It seems quite unlikely to me that he even believes what he is saying.

10% sounds like a lot but really isn’t. It currently has just over 10% right now, and there will likely be occasional BBJs and small orders from airlines.

To put that percentage in perspective, the number of 736s built is almost exactly 10% of the current total 737NG orderbook.

I think he is underestimating 737-10 sales some, but he also knows more about where Boeing’s head is at in regards to the MoM and it’s specifications than we do.

I'm sorry, but that's not even close to correct. You're off by a decimal! There have been about 7,100 NGs ordered. 69 were -600s. That isn't 10%; it's less than 1%!!

I also do not predict we will see the MAX7 sell in appreciable numbers. I see it being taken by WN and a few carriers as a niche, hot and high thin route opener plane.
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Flighty
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:35 pm

Nobody is quite saying this, but I am getting the feeling that the 737-9 may be the mainstream airplane, and the 737-8 effectively the shrink. And the 737-7 the niche airplane.
 
Boeingphan
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:35 pm

The more I think about what Boeing has on its horizon why are they wasting time and money creating what one would think is a dog? If they are really intend on the 797 program wouldn't the small end of the NMA cannibalize this program? Seems like a waste of time, effort, and funds that should be directed at the new 797 program. Yes the platform is tried and true but at some point they have to pull. Personally I'd like to see these efforts spent on a NMA and the small variant being a 757 sized replacement on up.
 
Clydenairways
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:42 pm

Flighty wrote:
Nobody is quite saying this, but I am getting the feeling that the 737-9 may be the mainstream airplane, and the 737-8 effectively the shrink. And the 737-7 the niche airplane.


I still think the -8 will sell the most by far. I still see that as being the main model.
 
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Aesma
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:44 pm

Boeingphan wrote:
The more I think about what Boeing has on its horizon why are they wasting time and money creating what one would think is a dog? If they are really intend on the 797 program wouldn't the small end of the NMA cannibalize this program? Seems like a waste of time, effort, and funds that should be directed at the new 797 program. Yes the platform is tried and true but at some point they have to pull. Personally I'd like to see these efforts spent on a NMA and the small variant being a 757 sized replacement on up.


They want to keep Airbus honest and take a piece of the cake, even if it's not the biggest piece. NMA is 7 years away if all goes well.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Kilopond
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:55 pm

lightsaber wrote:
[...]I will also be shocked if the -9/-10 are only 25% of the orders.[...]


Why is that? As of today, they will be underpowered and have a very sub-optimal field performance. Of course, that doesn't matter in North America. But in the rest of the world there are more than enough precarious runways from which the longer MAXes could only operate weight-restricted. I dare to predict that most airlines affected by this dilemma will happily order the EIGHT.
 
Nean1
Posts: 297
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:16 am

lightsaber wrote:
Polot wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:


Does anyone think he really believes that 10% of the Max sales will be for the 7? It seems quite unlikely to me that he even believes what he is saying.

10% sounds like a lot but really isn’t. It currently has just over 10% right now, and there will likely be occasional BBJs and small orders from airlines.

To put that percentage in perspective, the number of 736s built is almost exactly 10% of the current total 737NG orderbook.

I will be shocked if -7s are 10% of the MAXes.

I will also be shocked if the -9/-10 are only 25% of the orders. Short term, the -8 rules as it is the safe bet for financial companies. Once enough airlines buy the -10 and possibly -9,we will see a shift.

Every PIP reduces the cost of flying the larger models more than the lighter models. Take the 739ER, the last PIP not only reduced fuel burn, but it brought up the cycle life between overhauls that cut the price difference per flight over the 738 nicely. The same was true of the 738 over the 73G a long time ago. Cycle life is a function of takeoff and climb thrust. Heavier models do not make 20k cycles. Sometimes, as in early 734s, under half the smaller models.

After the CMC PIP, I expect the -10 sales to take off.

Lightsaber


Very opportune comment, as usual.

Thank you Lightsaber.
 
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ODwyerPW
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Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:19 am

pdt2f wrote:
I’m assuming you meant 230 pax and 240 pax?


Yes I did... 130 and 140 were typing errors. Thanks for the correction. I wish I could correct the original post I made.
learning never stops.
 
AvObserver
Posts: 2605
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 7:40 am

Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:35 am

ODwyerPW wrote:
Regarding capacity..
737-MAX10 has a total length of 143', while the 321NEO has a total length of 146', slightly more than a seat row.

So 737-10MAX max pax capacity is stated as 230pax, whereas A321NEO is stated as 240pax, certainly more than a seat row.

It appears Airbus is doing quite a bit more packing in by employing the SpaceFlex Galleys and Lavatories . For airliners that want to provide better service and comfort (e.g. standard sized galleys and lavatories), what kind of nominal capacity differences would we see between the planes, much less than 10 I assume?

Thanks for reminding us that there's still a capacity gap, despite the -10 effort. Wish in a way Boeing had done the earlier proposed 132" stretch to gain 4, instead of only 2 seat rows but that would've been too costly for a single derivative in a model line near the end of its evolution. Too many more changes, including even larger MLG needing alterations to the wingbox and even stronger wing structure reinforcements to handle bigger Leap 1-A engines, entailing additional certification costs and further loss of commonality with other MAX models. Upwards of $2 billion to develop per some pundits while the much simpler actual -10 changes should run no more than a few hundred million (I'm just guessing). Not as competitive as I'd like to see but as good as practical at a reasonable cost so airlines won't balk at the pricetag as they surely would have done had BCA decided on a longer, much more complex stretch.
 
brindabella
Posts: 574
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:14 pm

Flighty wrote:
Nobody is quite saying this, but I am getting the feeling that the 737-9 may be the mainstream airplane, and the 737-8 effectively the shrink. And the 737-7 the niche airplane.


:checkmark: ,

Lightsaber as ever, :stirthepot: said a mouthful above..



cheers
Billy
 
brindabella
Posts: 574
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:20 pm

Kilopond wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
[...]I will also be shocked if the -9/-10 are only 25% of the orders.[...]


Why is that? As of today, they will be underpowered and have a very sub-optimal field performance. Of course, that doesn't matter in North America. But in the rest of the world there are more than enough precarious runways from which the longer MAXes could only operate weight-restricted. I dare to predict that most airlines affected by this dilemma will happily order the EIGHT.


Oh dear!

Imagine:

    1000Lbs more on the LEAP
    backporting the new "cranked" gear to the 9MAX


What then?
Billy

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