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StTim
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:43 pm

I wonder if they will scavenge any more A380 facilities now the rate has dropped even further.
 
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zeke
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:13 pm

r2rho wrote:
AFAIK the facilities at TSN and BFM are sized for 4/month. There have been talks of increasing that, but it would imply expanding facilities.


TSN should be around rate 6 on the A320 and rate 2 on 330 by next year. BFM is already rate 4, they have additional land next to the current FAL they have already earmarked for an extension to get to another rate 4 there (rate 8 total for the site). Rate 8 at BFM still does not satisfy the US market.
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StTim
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:17 pm

I didn't realise the A330 finishing unit was shared with the A320 line.
 
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:37 pm

wild cards:
Fuel may go up in price but it will be temporary. Electrification of transportation will, by the mid 20s result in significant drops in demand for petroleum

Cities less than 5 feet above sea level are likely to face crises by the mid 40s, perhaps later, but also perhaps earlier. It will have a deleterious affect on the world economy.

Brexit and America First are not the way humanity can progress in the 21st century, but they may represent what voters will increasingly want.

Belt and Road initiative from China may be another wild card. How it will play out is unpredictable at this time.
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rheinwaldner
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:54 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
For all those planes to be delivered, there will likely be some other airlines contracting or going out of business, which could lead to cheaper used aircraft on the market.

Which could always also be Boeing operators, so Boeing would have the damage...

Airbus is on record saying, that in some markets the number of sold narrowbodies (both A&B) will only work out, if at some airlines business plans would fail. So Airbus is very aware of that risk. Thus we can assume that the 70/month already do incorporate some percentage of cancellations.

Anyway the backlog is not todayNumbers - cancellations.

It is todayNumbers + futureOrders - cancellations.

And, as there were always much more orders than cancellations, you have to calculate the production rate accordingly. IMO the market would support even higher A320 production rates than 70/month. The only factor, that I can see to dampen A320 demand in the future, would be the decision to cover the 140-160 seat market by the C-Series. That is also the only outcome (that I see), that the A320 will not become the most build civil airliner at one point in the future...
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rheinwaldner
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:31 pm

astuteman wrote:
And even then at say 800 per year (c 11.5 months per year output) it still represents a backlog of 7 1/2 years production.

Interesting is the comparison of these 7.5 years with other backlogs. E.g. the 787 backlog only accounts for 3.87 years production at 14/month.

For those who think 70/month are too much, let me just state the A320 production rate, if Airbus would apply the backlog/monthrate-ratio of the 787:
138 per month!!

So long before the A320 production rate would suffer (due to a bubble), the 787 production would see the impact.

So I assume that Newbiepilots is even much more nervous about the 787 production rate...
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mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:16 pm

r2rho wrote:
I assume 64 to be possible without building a new FAL, TSN and BFM could move to 8 a month.

AFAIK the facilities at TSN and BFM are sized for 4/month. There have been talks of increasing that, but it would imply expanding facilities.

The last FAL expansion for the A320 family happened in XFW .
That's right, XFW recently got a 4th FAL, built in former A380 facilities after the A380 ramp-down. However, A320 cabin outfitting for the TLS built aircraft was moved to TLS.
XFW (I believe the 3rd FAL) is the blueprint upon which the BFM and TSN sites are built, following a standardized model. Also, it looks like Airbus is building their new FAL's in modular "building blocks" of 4/month FALs. So TSN & BFM would have to get another "building block" to go to 8.
TLS is the odd FAL in the group, as it can only build A320's and up to recently didn't perform any cabin outfitting.


Most A320 FAL lines are build for 8 frames a month. The old line at TLS does 16 but can only do A320. All other lines, 4 in XFW and 1 each in TSN and BFM, are designed for 8 a month and are adjustable for doing all A320 family frames in a mix. Both TSN and BFM will start ramping past 4.
 
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:05 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
r2rho wrote:
I assume 64 to be possible without building a new FAL, TSN and BFM could move to 8 a month.

AFAIK the facilities at TSN and BFM are sized for 4/month. There have been talks of increasing that, but it would imply expanding facilities.

The last FAL expansion for the A320 family happened in XFW .
That's right, XFW recently got a 4th FAL, built in former A380 facilities after the A380 ramp-down. However, A320 cabin outfitting for the TLS built aircraft was moved to TLS.
XFW (I believe the 3rd FAL) is the blueprint upon which the BFM and TSN sites are built, following a standardized model. Also, it looks like Airbus is building their new FAL's in modular "building blocks" of 4/month FALs. So TSN & BFM would have to get another "building block" to go to 8.
TLS is the odd FAL in the group, as it can only build A320's and up to recently didn't perform any cabin outfitting.


Most A320 FAL lines are build for 8 frames a month. The old line at TLS does 16 but can only do A320. All other lines, 4 in XFW and 1 each in TSN and BFM, are designed for 8 a month and are adjustable for doing all A320 family frames in a mix. Both TSN and BFM will start ramping past 4.

Thanks for the clarification on the production potential. With 16/month from TLS, 32/month from XFW, 8/month from TSN and 8/month from BFM, that's 64/month. So they would need another production line to go beyond that, and could then potentially go to 72/month. I wonder where that next production line would most likely be?

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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:20 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
For those who think 70/month are too much, let me just state the A320 production rate, if Airbus would apply the backlog/monthrate-ratio of the 787:
138 per month!!

So long before the A320 production rate would suffer (due to a bubble), the 787 production would see the impact.


I think that the opposite may be the case...If you have a 3 year backlog -- it is far more likely that the orders are secure and upcoming economic or other events are unlikely to cause cancelations or deferrals. However if you have orders that won't be delivered for 6 or 7 years...it is fair to question if economic, fuel prices, interest rates or even geopolitical events may affect deliveries that far out....which may never be delivered and probably can be cancelled or deferred easily.

I also believe there is approx. 15000 A320 and 737NG family aircraft in service...which easily could stay in fleets years longer if well maintained...instead of being replaced by NEO or MAX if interest rates rise and fuel prices stay low. This is not the case for 787 or A350.
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WIederling
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Tue Feb 20, 2018 9:41 am

QuarkFly wrote:
I also believe there is approx. 15000 A320 and 737NG family aircraft in service...which easily could stay in fleets years longer if well maintained...instead of being replaced by NEO or MAX if interest rates rise and fuel prices stay low. This is not the case for 787 or A350.


If you look at the rise production numbers over time I would expect scrapping numbers to show a pronounced rise in the future.
The cohort of frames reaching 25 years on their back will grow every year.

( up to now mostly low production volume years went to the desert or in the scrapper. )
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flee
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:06 pm

QuarkFly wrote:
However if you have orders that won't be delivered for 6 or 7 years...it is fair to question if economic, fuel prices, interest rates or even geopolitical events may affect deliveries that far out....which may never be delivered and probably can be cancelled or deferred easily.

I also believe there is approx. 15000 A320 and 737NG family aircraft in service...which easily could stay in fleets years longer if well maintained...instead of being replaced by NEO or MAX if interest rates rise and fuel prices stay low. This is not the case for 787 or A350.

I am not sure if you have been diligently following the discussions on this thread but Airbus has already posted actual delivery numbers of their aircraft and declared that their production numbers are steady and on a rising trend, no matter what levels the orders are at.

As such there is no real need to question the "quality" of their orders. If there is indeed a bubble in the future and Airbus suffers, it will be more than certain that the economic downturn will be huge and all manufacturers will be similarly affected.

I repost the 21 year Airbus delivery record for your benefit.
Image
Airbus Deliveries Presso Slide by f lee, on Flickr

As for retaining old narrow body aircraft over longer periods, it would be very aircraft specific. Many of these single aisles fly very intensively and might have to be scrapped as they have run out of cycles.
 
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QuarkFly
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:18 pm

flee wrote:
I am not sure if you have been diligently following the discussions on this thread but Airbus has already posted actual delivery numbers of their aircraft and declared that their production numbers are steady and on a rising trend, no matter what levels the orders are at.

As such there is no real need to question the "quality" of their orders. If there is indeed a bubble in the future and Airbus suffers, it will be more than certain that the economic downturn will be huge and all manufacturers will be similarly affected.

I repost the 21 year Airbus delivery record for your benefit. ....


Thank you for your chart and I have been reasonably diligent following this A320 70 per-month thread...But I am not really making a point about A vs. B, the 'quality" or orders or any Airbus delivery record. Yes, I agree, the last decade has been the golden-age for aircraft orders and deliveries...

I am simply stating that in any industry, talking about what the condition will be in year 2025 is somewhat of a fool's errand...Predicting aircraft deliveries in 2020 is much easier...however, seven years out -- we are speculating. We thought the same things in the late 1960's at the beginning of the jet age, the Concorde, the 747, DC-10, L1011...it was going to be wonderful!...By 1975 things looked very different...stagflation, recession, Mideast wars, lights out in Seatlle. Same during the US Mortgage/Financial industry crisis a decade ago where conditions turned upside down in a year or two.

The aircraft order and delivery "golden age" may go on until 2025...but I suspect we have become acclimated to very loose monetary policies in US $ and Euro-zone...and Asian economies like China and India expected to grow at 6+ % forever?...We may get a very different result and it will affect aircraft backlogs if they stretch out past five years. Leased twenty year old A320's and 737NG's may look great compared to new NEO's or MAX's financed at 10% interest rate's...Who knows ??
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rheinwaldner
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Tue Feb 20, 2018 9:05 pm

QuarkFly wrote:
I think that the opposite may be the case...If you have a 3 year backlog -- it is far more likely that the orders are secure and upcoming economic or other events are unlikely to cause cancelations or deferrals. However if you have orders that won't be delivered for 6 or 7 years...it is fair to question if economic, fuel prices, interest rates or even geopolitical events may affect deliveries that far out....which may never be delivered and probably can be cancelled or deferred easily.

So you say Airbus should build A320 at a rate of 140/month in order to clean up the backlog after 3 years?

QuarkFly wrote:
I also believe there is approx. 15000 A320 and 737NG family aircraft in service...which easily could stay in fleets years longer if well maintained...instead of being replaced by NEO or MAX if interest rates rise and fuel prices stay low. This is not the case for 787 or A350.

There are also many widebodies in service that could fly longer instead of ordering new 787s...
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william
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Tue Feb 20, 2018 9:10 pm

Three pages of replies and we can accept the fact that Airbus wants to turn those thousands of orders from 10% down to paid in full much earlier than 7 years.

Who cares if its a bubble, better to get the product in the customers hands, get paid and let it be between the airline and the lender. There is no trophy for most aircraft on back order.
 
WIederling
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:40 am

rheinwaldner wrote:
So you say Airbus should build A320 at a rate of 140/month in order to clean up the backlog after 3 years?


There should be some limit to contracting the delivery horizon for existing customer airlines.
( they all have their carefully planned ideas on expanding or replacing their fleets.)
More frames per month would put pressure on Boeing's 737 though.
this would gnaw at their backup supplier position.

And keep the Leahy caveat in mind: "Do not excessively go over 50% market share".

The CSeries bruhaha and the HA swap out already shows
that Boeing is taking out the stops on "competing".
No holds barred anymore.
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WIederling
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:17 pm

StTim wrote:
I didn't realise the A330 finishing unit was shared with the A320 line.


Tianjin has a FAL line for A320. That includes paint and such.
Tianjin has recently got a finishing center for A330. ( flyable frames get stuffed and painted. )

That is not really "shared" beyond being on adjoining sites (IMU).
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:35 pm

QuarkFly wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Please point me to one Airbus or Boeing study that over predicted demand. All I've seen significantly underpredicted demand.


I'll give you a segment -- I did mention the VLA (A380, 747-8) forecasts of Airbus...and even Boeing were way on the high side and B was downplaying VLA. They can get it wrong.

lightsaber wrote:
High interest rates only come if countries like China are willing to let their currency rise with the associated plunge in exports. I expect higher rates, but only approaching the historical 7%. The Euro is done if it goes higher.


Hmmm, I say 7% commercial rates on aircraft financing wreaks havoc with the above forecasts! -- the last 20 years of A and B orders have been with nearly free money...

...And how is the Euro being "done" or China devaluing its currency (increasing A and B aircraft cost to Chinese carriers) in any way positive for deliveries?

The ULAs were wrong by Airbus. We could have many a.netters wish and a shift to widebodies. I doubt we'll see a huge surge smaller due to cost per passenger still being higher.

What matters is overall growth has always been underestimated. WIth the nice range increase the NEO/LR brings, we'll see the smaller segment grow. Is there some risk increasing production? Yes. I see more risk not increasing production.

20 years ago was near historical norm interest rates. We've had super low rates since 2008. If you want to peruse historical interest rates:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-cente ... &year=1997

I think Airbus should increase production. Otherwise, that is free sales for the C-series and leaves demand for the MAX, MC-21, and even C919 (when that plane is delivered is a whole different issue).

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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:43 pm

What QuarkFly is saying is not inconsistent with Airbus expanding 320 production lines. But how to emphasize his point that we cannot predict future financial collapses - words fail. That there will be a financial collapse from some known or unknown cause - a certainty before the end of the century.
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Sat Feb 24, 2018 7:29 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
With all due respect this thread is about Airbus potentially increasing their production rate and some concerns lessors have regarding a bubble. It is not an A vs B, who has the better backlog thread. If Airbus goes up to 70 planes a month and there is a Southeast Asia financial crisis, India has a recession, SARS outbreak, Us stock market collapse, etc there is risk that the rate will be too high and there could be a glut of used planes on the market.


Yes that's the biggest concern of some lessors.

However, it needs to be said that the aviation industry can handle a crisis pretty good (pic below).

I rather suspect that lessors are afraid that higher production rates will decrease the value of their current assets.

Image
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KarelXWB
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Sat Feb 24, 2018 7:43 pm

StTim wrote:
I didn't realise the A330 finishing unit was shared with the A320 line.


Both plants are located next to each other, but the A330 uses new and bigger hangars, including a new paint facility.

The only thing they share are the runways.

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Airbus Faces Revolt From 2nd Enginemaker on A320 Output Hike

Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:14 pm

On the recent Airbus earnings call, Enders called 70/month production a "no-brainer", but now Airbus gets negative feedback from Safran (CFM partner), after getting some from PW earlier:

Bloomberg: Airbus Faces Revolt From Second Enginemaker on A320 Output Hike says:

Airbus SE’s plan to further lift production of its A320neo jet faces resistance from both engine suppliers after Safran SA joined Pratt & Whitney in suggesting the move would strain resources to the limit.

Speaking in Paris on Tuesday, Safran Chief Executive Officer Philippe Petitcolin was cautious about the feasibility of taking A320 output to the 70-a-month that Airbus has mooted. A decision couldn’t be reached until next year at the earliest, and a higher rate wouldn’t be possible until after 2021, he added.

“It would be foolish to do that today because we are still in the ramp up and we are not 100 percent sure that our supply chain will be able to sustain such a rate,” Petitcolin said.

The most probable reason for such pushback would be that the engine vendors and their supply chains do not have any wiggle room to increase production without having to make some big investments. They might be nervous that after making those big investments the market might soften or even collapse, leaving them with expensive investments to pay off with no corresponding income.
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holzmann
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:17 pm

The A320/A321neo is turning out to be a blessing and curse. All those orders are useless if the planes can't fly. I suppose Boeing is likely to face similar issues from CFM.
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Re: Airbus Faces Revolt From 2nd Enginemaker on A320 Output Hike

Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:37 pm

Revelation wrote:
The most probable reason for such pushback would be that the engine vendors and their supply chains do not have any wiggle room to increase production without having to make some big investments. They might be nervous that after making those big investments the market might soften or even collapse, leaving them with expensive investments to pay off with no corresponding income.


It doesn't read much as a push back because no timeline for rate 70 was set. Airbus is committed to rate 60 by mid-2020, so obviously rate 70 was not going to happen before 2021. All we know is that rate 70 is desired somewhere in the next decade.

And yes, every rate increase requires (big) investments. That has not been different in the past.
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:02 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Planesmart wrote:
As I pointed out last year, 2018-2020, OEM sales staff will spend as much time negotiating cancellations and deferrals, as writing new business.


And apparently, Boeing and Airbus are making good money out of deferrals and cancellations.

A Paris Air Show player offers some brutal home truths for airlines

I thought this was the quote to sum it up:

“I don’t care how efficient the airplane is, if it flies from nowhere to nowhere with no-one on board, you are going to incinerate cash.” That’s a pretty brutal reality. I wonder how much of Boeing and Airbus’s backlog becomes deferrals and cancellations.
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:22 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
astuteman wrote:
And even then at say 800 per year (c 11.5 months per year output) it still represents a backlog of 7 1/2 years production.

Interesting is the comparison of these 7.5 years with other backlogs. E.g. the 787 backlog only accounts for 3.87 years production at 14/month.

For those who think 70/month are too much, let me just state the A320 production rate, if Airbus would apply the backlog/monthrate-ratio of the 787:
138 per month!!

So long before the A320 production rate would suffer (due to a bubble), the 787 production would see the impact.

So I assume that Newbiepilots is even much more nervous about the 787 production rate...



In order to make such a claim you would need to know a lot of details that are buried in each contract. Airbus has 1,700 narrow body aircraft on order from (9) airlines who currently only have 450 planes in their fleets. These are those magical orders JL would come up with to claim victory at airshows etc. We have no idea what the terms of these contracts are. Maybe there are very generous deferral provisions. We do know Airbus was willing to take a re-selling arrangement with Amedeo and use it to book 20 A380 orders, that are not really orders at all. Who know what the REAL story is with Indigo partners etc.
 
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flee
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Re: Airbus Faces Revolt From 2nd Enginemaker on A320 Output Hike

Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:05 am

Revelation wrote:
On the recent Airbus earnings call, Enders called 70/month production a "no-brainer", but now Airbus gets negative feedback from Safran (CFM partner), after getting some from PW earlier:

Bloomberg: Airbus Faces Revolt From Second Enginemaker on A320 Output Hike says:

Airbus SE’s plan to further lift production of its A320neo jet faces resistance from both engine suppliers after Safran SA joined Pratt & Whitney in suggesting the move would strain resources to the limit.

Speaking in Paris on Tuesday, Safran Chief Executive Officer Philippe Petitcolin was cautious about the feasibility of taking A320 output to the 70-a-month that Airbus has mooted. A decision couldn’t be reached until next year at the earliest, and a higher rate wouldn’t be possible until after 2021, he added.

“It would be foolish to do that today because we are still in the ramp up and we are not 100 percent sure that our supply chain will be able to sustain such a rate,” Petitcolin said.

The most probable reason for such pushback would be that the engine vendors and their supply chains do not have any wiggle room to increase production without having to make some big investments. They might be nervous that after making those big investments the market might soften or even collapse, leaving them with expensive investments to pay off with no corresponding income.

Perhaps, it is time for Airbus to consider allowing a third engine manufacturer into the A320 programme? They could also stipulate that this third engine should be able to scale up to 40+K lbs of thrust if necessary so that Airbus can cover an A322 development.
 
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Re: Airbus Faces Revolt From 2nd Enginemaker on A320 Output Hike

Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:29 am

KarelXWB wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The most probable reason for such pushback would be that the engine vendors and their supply chains do not have any wiggle room to increase production without having to make some big investments. They might be nervous that after making those big investments the market might soften or even collapse, leaving them with expensive investments to pay off with no corresponding income.


It doesn't read much as a push back because no timeline for rate 70 was set. Airbus is committed to rate 60 by mid-2020, so obviously rate 70 was not going to happen before 2021. All we know is that rate 70 is desired somewhere in the next decade.

And yes, every rate increase requires (big) investments. That has not been different in the past.

That's not what I've read here in the past. Some increases require just adding more workers. Others more machines. Others expanding an existing building. Others adding a new building. Others adding a new campus/site. It all depends on where you are relative to the tipping points. But if you're already at historical rates and seeing to grow in big bounds, I think a lot of the tipping points line up.

I think the push back from both PW and Safran is pretty unique. That's not to say a higher rate won't happen. But it is saying they don't want to commit for a while. Meanwhile, Enders calls it a 'no-brainer'. The vendors are engaging their brains.
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:59 am

CFM, the joint venture GE/Safran, produces 50% of the LEAP engines in the US (GE) and 50% of the LEAP engines in the EU (Safran). Only LEAP 1B engines are manufactured in the US, while Safran manufactures all three variants in the EU (LEAP 1A, 1B, 1C).

In other words, CFM promises a higher level of deliveries every month to Boeing, and that's the problem for Airbus? If CFM treated the two OEMs equally, Airbus should be able to maintain a higher output of the A320neo family, since the A320 family also can be powered by engines supplied by PW.

I wonder how fast RR could deliver a new engine for the A320 family? 8 years from now? RR have stated that they want a comeback in the narrowbody business. If you ask me, RR and PW should have created a joint venture on the GTF engine, and then maybe both qualify control and production capabilities would have been better.
 
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Re: Airbus Faces Revolt From 2nd Enginemaker on A320 Output Hike

Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:56 am

Revelation wrote:
That's not what I've read here in the past. Some increases require just adding more workers. Others more machines. Others expanding an existing building. Others adding a new building. Others adding a new campus/site. It all depends on where you are relative to the tipping points. But if you're already at historical rates and seeing to grow in big bounds, I think a lot of the tipping points line up.


In order to go to rate 60 by mid-2020, some major investments have already been done. Tipping points have been reached many times before. It's not like Airbus went from rate [low] in the early 90s to rate 50 today just by adding additional workers and buildings.

There was a point in time when rate 30 was historical high, yet here we are, at rate 50 currently.

I think the push back from both PW and Safran is pretty unique. That's not to say a higher rate won't happen. But it is saying they don't want to commit for a while. Meanwhile, Enders calls it a 'no-brainer'. The vendors are engaging their brains.


Enders didn't give a timeline. As such, the "no-brainer" may as well happen around 2025. Suppliers won't commit to higher rates as long as rate 60 has not been reached.
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rheinwaldner
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Thu Mar 01, 2018 6:34 am

SC430 wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
astuteman wrote:
And even then at say 800 per year (c 11.5 months per year output) it still represents a backlog of 7 1/2 years production.

Interesting is the comparison of these 7.5 years with other backlogs. E.g. the 787 backlog only accounts for 3.87 years production at 14/month.

For those who think 70/month are too much, let me just state the A320 production rate, if Airbus would apply the backlog/monthrate-ratio of the 787:
138 per month!!

So long before the A320 production rate would suffer (due to a bubble), the 787 production would see the impact.

So I assume that Newbiepilots is even much more nervous about the 787 production rate...


In order to make such a claim you would need to know a lot of details that are buried in each contract. Airbus has 1,700 narrow body aircraft on order from (9) airlines who currently only have 450 planes in their fleets. These are those magical orders JL would come up with to claim victory at airshows etc. We have no idea what the terms of these contracts are. Maybe there are very generous deferral provisions. We do know Airbus was willing to take a re-selling arrangement with Amedeo and use it to book 20 A380 orders, that are not really orders at all. Who know what the REAL story is with Indigo partners etc.


The claim is about the backlog as it is written in the order book. The 787 has also seen many cancellations. There were even net negative years. And many types of potential crisis have impact on the widebody market as much as on the A320 market.

Comparing the ups-and-downs of Boeings production rates over the years with the steady, ever raising A320 output I would say, that Airbus applies a more sensible and conservative approach regarding production rates. The Airbus production rates do (and ever did) carefully account for the "quality" of their backlog. You find quotes from Leahy where he expresses concerns, that not all business cases from airlines, that are presented to him, will become reality.

You can look at it whatever way you want, once demand softens the 787 backlog is burned down in 4 years vs 7.5 years for the A320 backlog (at 70 per month!). The quality of the backlog 787 vs A320 does not warrant such a delta. Boeing is gambling more than Airbus in this instance.
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flee
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Thu Mar 01, 2018 7:14 am

rheinwaldner wrote:
Comparing the ups-and-downs of Boeings production rates over the years with the steady, ever raising A320 output I would say, that Airbus applies a more sensible and conservative approach regarding production rates. The Airbus production rates do (and ever did) carefully account for the "quality" of their backlog. You find quotes from Leahy where he expresses concerns, that not all business cases from airlines, that are presented to him, will become reality.

Yes, when Airbus makes production rate adjustments, they assess what kind of rate is sustainable before going for it. Adjusting production rates constantly (whether it is up or down) can be very disruptive for suppliers. They just want to make sure that whatever rate is adopted, it won't be changed again soon. Businesses do not like uncertainty - they prefer to run steady ships.
 
VV
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Thu Mar 01, 2018 7:32 am

So, is it going to be 70 per month or not?
With so many orders, such a rate is possible but it seems some suppliers are reluctant to increase their output.

The other question is if it is reasonable to include the A319neo in the production plan when there are more than 6,000 (SIX THOUSAND) A320neo and A321neo to deliver and there are suppliers that are reluctant to increase their output.
 
parapente
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:48 am

From what has been said - particularly the engine OEM's 70 ain't going to happen any time soon.in fact 60 is clearly pushing it.
But perhaps it's more about (or should be) what aircraft are made rather than how many.
The key aircraft at the moment is the A321NEO/LR.If they can ,this is the a/c they should be pumping out.
 
Olddog
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:52 am

Or we could say that the pro Boeing engine maker tries to slow down Airbus sales :)
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rheinwaldner
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:03 pm

The total number of narrowbodies, that is demanded by the world market will not tank just because the engine OEMs decide to not participate. And the engine OEMs are also not in the driver seat to determine which aircraft will satisfy that demand primarily. There are solutions for unwilling suppliers.
E.g. Airbus could exercise a friendly take over and simply sack in Safran. Or they could buy production licences and have own engine production shops. I know from other producing industries where big OEMs went into the shop of tumbling suppliers and literally used the infrastructure to produce the parts with own staff....
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VV
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Fri Mar 02, 2018 7:23 am

"The total number of narrowbodies, that is demanded by the world market will not tank just because the engine OEMs decide to not participate. And the engine OEMs are also not in the driver seat to determine which aircraft will satisfy that demand primarily. There are solutions for unwilling suppliers.
E.g. Airbus could exercise a friendly take over and simply sack in Safran. Or they could buy production licences and have own engine production shops. I know from other producing industries where big OEMs went into the shop of tumbling suppliers and literally used the infrastructure to produce the parts with own staff...."


That's a very interesting comment.
There are other solutions like building engineless aircraft.
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:28 pm

Any chance that Airbus can increase production significantly in the next few years? The industry as a whole seems to be bottle-necking around production issues. And with the MAX/Boeing issues, Seat and Engine OEMs all having issues its kind of a shame they cannot take advantage of the slack.
 
estorilm
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:39 pm

UpNAWAy wrote:
Any chance that Airbus can increase production significantly in the next few years? The industry as a whole seems to be bottle-necking around production issues. And with the MAX/Boeing issues, Seat and Engine OEMs all having issues its kind of a shame they cannot take advantage of the slack.

Engines are definitely the problem. I read an article where an Airbus rep said they'd stick to where they are now (63 or so?) but that "the number 70 keeps popping up and is doable" or something to that extent.

I spoke with a friend who works at Airbus today, and the entire building has been pretty chaotic since news of the MAX shut-down. I have no idea what that means, but I'd imagine production ramp-up and possible re-allocation of engine builder resources to the NEO variants might be on the list.
 
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PW100
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:18 pm

Now that CFM is ramping down for the Max, that may open up capacity for Neo. If indeed the engines were the bottleneck, perhaps rate increase may come a bit quicker.
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mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:37 pm

zeke wrote:
r2rho wrote:
AFAIK the facilities at TSN and BFM are sized for 4/month. There have been talks of increasing that, but it would imply expanding facilities.


TSN should be around rate 6 on the A320 and rate 2 on 330 by next year. BFM is already rate 4, they have additional land next to the current FAL they have already earmarked for an extension to get to another rate 4 there (rate 8 total for the site). Rate 8 at BFM still does not satisfy the US market.


The FAL in BFM is build for rate 8. The extension is only needed for supporting operations. All Airbus FAL, but # 4 in XFW are designed for rate 8. XFW #4 is designed for rate 10. Theoretically we could see with the current FALs, TLS 16, XFW 34, BFM and TSN 8 each. Makes 66. One FAL in TLS copying the FAL #4 in XFW, could bring TLS to 26.
The main problem is and will be the supply line.
 
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reidar76
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:33 pm

PW100 wrote:
Now that CFM is ramping down for the Max, that may open up capacity for Neo. If indeed the engines were the bottleneck, perhaps rate increase may come a bit quicker.


All CFM LEAP 1A (and LEAP 1C) engines are made in the EU by Safran. Safran also manufactures some LEAP 1B engines, but the vast majority of LEAP 1B are manufactured by GE in the US. GE only makes LEAP 1B.

If CFM would like to use the opportunity to increase production of neo-engines (LEAP 1A), that would mean that GE must start making 1A engines for the first time, and use their 1B facilities and equipment. I don't know if this is easy, difficult, easily reversible and/or expensive.
 
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zeke
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:44 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
The FAL in BFM is build for rate 8. The extension is only needed for supporting operations. All Airbus FAL, but # 4 in XFW are designed for rate 8. XFW #4 is designed for rate 10. Theoretically we could see with the current FALs, TLS 16, XFW 34, BFM and TSN 8 each. Makes 66. One FAL in TLS copying the FAL #4 in XFW, could bring TLS to 26.
The main problem is and will be the supply line.


I think they are all designed with some spare capacity so in the event of a fire etc at one FAL there is capacity to deliver at near the same total rate as a risk mitigation.
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Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Thu Dec 19, 2019 12:14 am

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