OAG Changes 2/18/2018:AM Adds DTW-BJX;AS Drops SFO-FLL/MSP,LAX-MCO,MEX-SAN;NK Drops MSP-ORD;WN Adds EWR-OAK/SAN

AAvgeek744 · Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:36 pm

FWIW: https://offshoregroup.com/wp-content/up ... e-map2.png

jetero · Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:37 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
jetero wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
DTW-BJX? Woah! I thought they’d see GDL before getting into more interior Mexico. This is going to be huge for the automakers.

It amazes me that people think there’s a market from DTW to BJX.

Google 'automotive investment Guanajuato.'

International hotel chains, including Marriott, Hilton, and Starwood will build 52 new business hotels between 2014 and 2018 in the state of Guanajuato alone, bringing in US$350 million in investment.

http://hir.harvard.edu/article/?a=13142

klm617 wrote:
It amazes me that people think there is a market from Houston to Africa.

tphuang · Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:49 pm

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
BobbyPSP wrote:
UA’s FLL/MCO - SFO are timed for the prime Asia bank. Plus west coast connections of course.

MCO-LAX seems more timed for entertainment business between the two cities, along with connections to SIN and SYD

I think both are fine for now. MCO suffering from over saturation to the west coast and low yields. ULCC competition also.

FLL being killed by Mint. In fact, I'm told by a reliable person that AA is feeling the impact on MIA transcoms that compete with B6 FLL Mint operations (FLL-
LAX/SFO).

FLL-SFO yields for UA is just over half of routes like EWR/IAD-SFO. I get it, they don't want to get pushed around by B6 at their SFO hub. But make no mistake, they are loosing huge money on this route.

MAH4546 wrote:
Again, AS is not ending FLLSFO, it goes back to seasonal.

But I have no doubt Mint is hurting AA at MIA. I have not flown AA since JetBlue Mint entered the picture, and on my last Mint flight FLL-LAX flight you can tell it was AA defectors because people were having conversations about it with the crew. Imagine if B6 wised up and moved Mint to MIA. It would be a disaster for AA.

Let's see if that actually happens. The schedule doesn't show them coming back until late November. Who knows what's going to happen by then? This winter, they tried 2 daily on FLL-SFO. Didn't work, they had to cut it back. Since mint entered the market, FLL-SFO yields for both VX and UA have really crashed.

As for AA defection, that seems to be the case. Mint has been selling so well on FLL-LAX/SFO, that I'm surprised they haven't added more frequency. I think FLL-SEA on mint will happen at some point.

MIflyer12 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
BOS-ATL is a huge bloodbath. NK yields are at LAX-PDX/SEA level right before they cut those routes, so I think they are toast. B6 is definitely loosing money. WN is definitely loosing money also. DL is down $100 per passengers, don't think they are making much money either. B6 is tolerating this kind of losses for network reasons and hoping that one or both of NK/WN dropping out. Long term, I see this as a route with only B6 and DL. Same with BOS-MSP in a couple of years time.

I don't see B6 pushing WN off BOS-ATL entirely. Southwest in bigger in ATL than B6 is in Boston. $45 one-way fares with bags 'flying free' shows Southwest is willing to lose money in the market. There's room for three carriers in an O&D market that size, and WN can always route connecting traffic thru ATL. I do wonder if DL will keep so much capacity in the market, at 12x 321 + 1x 320 (on a July Monday).

For tomorrow, WN has 121 flights at ATL and B6 has 147 flights at BOS. More importantly, B6 operation is geared for the corporate market and ATL is needed to complete their network out of BOS. They just have a lot more to gain keeping this route than WN does. Let's put it this way, loosing money on BOS-ATL is compensated by gains on other BOS routes. Does WN loose much in network revenue if it drops BOS-ATL? I don't see why DL or B6 will reduce capacity at this point?

jetbluefan1 wrote:
Re NK vs B6 at FLL - I think NK does very well, but B6 maintains a significant RASM premium. Granted, FLL is not as profitable as BOS for B6, but it serves a different role in the network and is at a different stage in development. That said, I don't think B6 is making any money flying markets like FLL-MSY/BWI/PIT, but also does very well in markets like FLL-RDU/RIC and of course to the Islands...

The competitive dynamic among NK/WN/B6 at FLL is still playing out, with no carrier signaling it will "blink" anytime soon.

B6 seems to really be gaining in profitability in their FLL hub. Those mint routes have helped them capture a lot more higher yielding customers from AA. They have revenue premium over WN while also having lower cost. Which would point to a much more profitable operation.

I think we have to include AA at MIA in all the analysis. I would actually argue that B6 competes a lot more with AA than WN.
1) they both command revenue premium over competition on the NorthEast to MIA/FLL routes. That captures a lot of the higher yielding NorthEast snowbirds. WN doesn't participate in that
2) they both fly transcon with premium cabin allowing to capture higher yielding crowd. WN doesn't participate in that.
3) All 3 are treating MIA/FLL (and also NK) as their Latin America hub, but B6 is a lot more likely to capture FLL to Brazil/Argentina/Chile high yielding crowd from AA down the line than WN, since they will operate A321NEO. And B6 is larger in the Latin America market than WN.

From all of this and yields on EWR/DCA-FLL (where B6 and WN have similar size of operation), I get the sense that B6 captures much greater FLL point of sale than WN/NK.

tb727 · Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:53 pm

jetero wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
DTW-BJX? Woah! I thought they’d see GDL before getting into more interior Mexico. This is going to be huge for the automakers.

It amazes me that people think there’s a market from DTW to BJX.

The last few years I flew freight(2011ish-2014)I would say 65% of my flying involved Leon and Detroit and it was getting stronger as time went on. Lots of manufacturing for the automakers being done down there, we had a lot coming from just down the road from the airport in Silao. I really enjoyed my flying down there, nice terminal and spent a lot of time in their restaurant upstairs as well waiting "30 more minutes for freight capitan"

Midwestindy · Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:57 pm

klm617 wrote:
It amazes me that people think there is a market from Houston to Africa.

I guess you are going to shocked when I tell you the O&D between Lagos and Houston is larger than the O&D between Houston and Frankfurt, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Mumbai, Beijing, Buenos Aires, need I mention anymore?

jetero · Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:01 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
klm617 wrote:
It amazes me that people think there is a market from Houston to Africa.

I guess you are going to shocked when I tell you the O&D between Lagos and Houston is larger than the O&D between Houston and Frankfurt, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Mumbai, Beijing, Buenos Aires, need I mention anymore?

Oh I wouldn’t be shocked. Some would, though.

FA9295 · Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:01 pm

tphuang wrote:

LAX-MCO is one of the lowest yielding transcon routes in the country for all carriers involved. The question is who else will drop out?

I completely predicted this one. SFO-FLL is a case of mint simply killing VX here. The funny part is that UA yields even lower than VX, yet still keep operating it. LAX-FLL will be in serious trouble once B6 adds more frequency on it.

Probably because UA has vital connections at SFO to Asia, Hawaii, etc.

SANFan · Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:05 pm

seat1a wrote:
With SAN-MEX being cut, does this speak to the viability or success of other E175 routes (SAN-DAL, OMA, MSP, MCI)? Thanks!

What has SAN-MEX got to do with any of the other SAN-routes you listed? AS started 9 new routes out of SAN in 2017; do you suspect they were all mistakes by AS and will fail one by one?

To give you 3 sentences of background, MEX is the first route from SAN dropped by AAG since 2008 when SAN-GEG was last discontinued. And since that time, AAG has started 26 new routes from SDIA. And at least two additional routes -- so far -- are due to be added this year. That seems to me to be a pretty good success record and may explain why SAN is an Alaska focus City!

To take a stab at answering your question, I would say, "Who knows?" But I would very seriously doubt it.

bb

tphuang · Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:35 pm

FA9295 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

LAX-MCO is one of the lowest yielding transcon routes in the country for all carriers involved. The question is who else will drop out?

I completely predicted this one. SFO-FLL is a case of mint simply killing VX here. The funny part is that UA yields even lower than VX, yet still keep operating it. LAX-FLL will be in serious trouble once B6 adds more frequency on it.

Probably because UA has vital connections at SFO to Asia, Hawaii, etc.

no amount of connections can save how bad the yields are on this route. SFO-MIA down the road would fight for the same connection dollars and actually yield far better.

jb1087xna · Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:49 pm

enilria wrote:
UA ORD-XNA JUN 3>4 JUL 1.7>4 AUG 1.7>4 SEP 1.7>4 OCT 1.7>4

Basically a continuation of their current schedule....unfortunately all still 50 seaters.

Goodyear · Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:12 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
Guessing the AS Florida drops (LAX-MCO and SFO-FLL) are VX flights that didn't make money?

Did any VX flights make money?

jeffh747 · Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:17 pm

Well, thank you Alaska for continuing to give Floridians more reason to fly jetBlue.

enilria · Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:23 pm

santi319 wrote:
Anyone else was baffled at NK and to a lesser extent F9 never applying for MEX slots?

Considering F9 owner Indigo also owns Volaris, it is very surprising.

capejet · Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:26 pm

Is BOS-SYR a new route for B6?

jordanh · Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:30 pm

jetero wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
DTW-BJX? Woah! I thought they’d see GDL before getting into more interior Mexico. This is going to be huge for the automakers.

It amazes me that people think there’s a market from DTW to BJX.

The area around Leon has become a center of Mexico's auto industry; AM has always been the "businessman's airline" in Mexico (as opposed to Volaris, Interjet, and previously Mexicana; they might have even scouted contracts with some of the auto companies and suppliers. In addition, DTW-BJX may benefit from being somewhat similar to MSP-HRL; a "snowbird" sort of route (albeit not necessarily a winter-seasonal route, in this case); the area around Leon - particularly Guanajuato - has become a huge retirement community for aging USA citizens. I don't know how many are escaping Detroit... but I couldn't blame them if they wanted to try.

Perhaps AM crunched some numbers and determined that, between these two groups, this flight made sense.

jordanh · Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:39 pm

enilria wrote:
*AS FLL-SFO JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
*AS LAX-MCO JUL 1.0>0.2 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
I guess they must return these MEX slots?
*AS LAX-MEX MAY 2>1.6 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
AS LAX-PVR AUG 1.5>1.4
*AS MSP-SFO MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
*AS SAN-MEX MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
AS SEA-BNA JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8
AS SEA-BUR JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
AS SEA-ORD JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5

Throwing up a white flag in SFO and Southern California, and circling the wagons in SEA?

freakyrat · Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:28 am

airtrantpa wrote:
Is it just me or is G4 reducing/cutting a lot of frequencies. The last report showed them reducing just about everything out of AVL, and looks like a lot put of PIE as well, unless im reading this wrong.

On the other hand. I'm glad to see WN add LAX from TPA.

Must be incorrect information as G4 still shows SBN-IWA flights bookable all through the summer on their website. Usually they would make seasonal adjustments as people do not want to travel to the valley of the sun in the hot summer.

freakyrat · Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:34 am

airtrantpa wrote:
Is it just me or is G4 reducing/cutting a lot of frequencies. The last report showed them reducing just about everything out of AVL, and looks like a lot put of PIE as well, unless im reading this wrong.

On the other hand. I'm glad to see WN add LAX from TPA.

Must be some incorrect data for example G4's website shows SBN-IWA bookable throughout the summer months.

SFOtoORD · Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:34 am

jordanh wrote:
enilria wrote:
*AS FLL-SFO JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
*AS LAX-MCO JUL 1.0>0.2 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
I guess they must return these MEX slots?
*AS LAX-MEX MAY 2>1.6 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
AS LAX-PVR AUG 1.5>1.4
*AS MSP-SFO MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
*AS SAN-MEX MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
AS SEA-BNA JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8
AS SEA-BUR JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
AS SEA-ORD JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5

Throwing up a white flag in SFO and Southern California, and circling the wagons in SEA?

That’s a pretty dramatic conclusion based on this very small number of flights shifting. I’d likely deem this as a case where they are trying to improve margins by moving aircraft off of a couple of their very worst performing routes onto a couple safe routes out of SEA.

AAvgeek744 · Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:36 am

jeffh747 wrote:
Well, thank you Alaska for continuing to give Floridians more reason to fly jetBlue.

My bet is they aren't losing any sleep over lost pax in low yield markets.

wedgetail737 · Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:56 am

MAH4546 wrote:
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
BobbyPSP wrote:
UA’s FLL/MCO - SFO are timed for the prime Asia bank. Plus west coast connections of course.

MCO-LAX seems more timed for entertainment business between the two cities, along with connections to SIN and SYD

I think both are fine for now. MCO suffering from over saturation to the west coast and low yields. ULCC competition also.

FLL being killed by Mint. In fact, I'm told by a reliable person that AA is feeling the impact on MIA transcoms that compete with B6 FLL Mint operations (FLL-
LAX/SFO).

Again, AS is not ending FLLSFO, it goes back to seasonal.

But I have no doubt Mint is hurting AA at MIA. I have not flown AA since JetBlue Mint entered the picture, and on my last Mint flight FLL-LAX flight you can tell it was AA defectors because people were having conversations about it with the crew. Imagine if B6 wised up and moved Mint to MIA. It would be a disaster for AA.

I hope you're right. But it looks like LAX-MCO is gone completely?

MaverickM11 · Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:13 am

jetero wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
DTW-BJX? Woah! I thought they’d see GDL before getting into more interior Mexico. This is going to be huge for the automakers.

It amazes me that people think there’s a market from DTW to BJX.

DTW non-leisure Mexico is driven by the auto industry, so places like MTY, BJX, SLW, etc. GDL is unlikely to work.

psa1011 wrote:
BENAir01 wrote:
Thank you, as always!
“AI SFO-DEL APR 0.9>1.3 MAY 0.8>1.3 JUN 0.9>1.3 JUL 0.8>1.3 AUG 0.9>1.3 SEP 0.9>1.3 OCT 0.8>1.2”
Any info on what the schedule for the extra flights will be? Maybe an afternoon departure from DEL, arrive in the evening, and then an overnight back?

It looks like an 1800 departure from DEL, arriving 20:30, departing SFO at 100, arriving 0600 +1.

Meanwhile EY is out and EK is down in capacity. Pretty nice to see AI doing something right.

wedgetail737 wrote:
It is my guess that the drop in LAX-MEX service and the dropped SAN-MEX have more to do with low loads.

Low loads...high loads...doesn't matter; the yield is terrible. Although I'd be surprised if they had low loads.

AVLAirlineFreq · Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:32 am

airtrantpa wrote:
Is it just me or is G4 reducing/cutting a lot of frequencies. The last report showed them reducing just about everything out of AVL, and looks like a lot put of PIE as well, unless im reading this wrong.

I just looked at the G4 schedule for AVL, and it shows healthy frequencies for every route through the summer (daily on the Florida routes) and cuts down to less-than-daily for September before more frequencies are increased again in October.

Irehdna · Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:36 am

Air India is in the booking engine.

AI183 = DEL (18:00) to SFO (20:30)
AI184 = SFO (01:00) to DEL (06:00+2)

Tuesday and Friday will have DEL-SFO double-daily. IIRC this would be the first India-US nonstop flight that doesn't fly through the night (AC DEL-YVR is a similar daytime flight).

That return SFO-DEL though, essentially a "double-night flight" similar to SQ's EWR-SIN.

MIflyer12 · Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:00 am

tphuang wrote:
Let's put it this way, loosing money on BOS-ATL is compensated by gains on other BOS routes. Does WN loose much in network revenue if it drops BOS-ATL? I don't see why DL or B6 will reduce capacity at this point?

Just as B6 needs some destinations out of BOS, Southwest needs some destinations out of ATL to be broadly viable as an alternative to Delta. WN has much deeper pockets than B6 to sustain strategic losses.

airtrantpa · Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:01 am

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
airtrantpa wrote:
Is it just me or is G4 reducing/cutting a lot of frequencies. The last report showed them reducing just about everything out of AVL, and looks like a lot put of PIE as well, unless im reading this wrong.

I just looked at the G4 schedule for AVL, and it shows healthy frequencies for every route through the summer (daily on the Florida routes) and cuts down to less-than-daily for September before more frequencies are increased again in October.

That is good. The last OAG showed decreased capacity for just about every G4 route out of AVL. How is AVL-EWR doing?

klm617 · Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:06 am

Good to see AM expanding in DTW.

MIflyer12 · Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:12 am

MaverickM11 wrote:
jetero wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
DTW-BJX? Woah! I thought they’d see GDL before getting into more interior Mexico. This is going to be huge for the automakers.

It amazes me that people think there’s a market from DTW to BJX.

DTW non-leisure Mexico is driven by the auto industry, so places like MTY, BJX, SLW, etc. GDL is unlikely to work.

With regards to BJX, the demand is established by:

GM vehicle assembly, engine assembly, and transmission assembly in Silao.

Honda vehicle assembly in Celaya - the likely origin of your new Fit or HR-V.

Mazda/Toyota vehicle assembly in Salamanca.

Nissan (and joint Mercedes/Nissan) assembly in Aguascalientes, the largest auto assembly campus in the Americas.

Map the HQ or North American HQ of the world's top 25 automotive suppliers around Detroit.

Map the big supplier plants in Mexico that support the vehicle assembly plants listed above.

AM/DL may not see demand seven days a week, but this route will be a big time saver and should be very popular with a crowd that isn't particularly fare conscious.

N717TW · Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:31 am

[quote="MIflyer12"
I don't see B6 pushing WN off BOS-ATL entirely. Southwest in bigger in ATL than B6 is in Boston. $45 one-way fares with bags 'flying free' shows Southwest is willing to lose money in the market. There's room for three carriers in an O&D market that size, and WN can always route connecting traffic thru ATL. I do wonder if DL will keep so much capacity in the market, at 12x 321 + 1x 320 (on a July Monday).[/quote]

Such as true with many of DL's ATL routes, BOS-ATL frequency and capacity is based upon connecting traffic. I would be shocked if, on average, more than 40 passengers on a 321 between BOS-ATL were O&D.

But as someone who goes to ATL a few times per year, I did love my $98 r/t ticket two weeks ago...sure beats the $300 to $400 I used to spend. But the bloodbath seems to have abated. The tickets for next week are back over $250.

AVLAirlineFreq · Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:40 am

airtrantpa wrote:

That is good. The last OAG showed decreased capacity for just about every G4 route out of AVL. How is AVL-EWR doing?

Still doing well. It goes to 4x/weekly again in May and remains as such through the summer.

tphuang · Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:48 am

N717TW wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
I don't see B6 pushing WN off BOS-ATL entirely. Southwest in bigger in ATL than B6 is in Boston. $45 one-way fares with bags 'flying free' shows Southwest is willing to lose money in the market. There's room for three carriers in an O&D market that size, and WN can always route connecting traffic thru ATL. I do wonder if DL will keep so much capacity in the market, at 12x 321 + 1x 320 (on a July Monday).

Such as true with many of DL's ATL routes, BOS-ATL frequency and capacity is based upon connecting traffic. I would be shocked if, on average, more than 40 passengers on a 321 between BOS-ATL were O&D.

But as someone who goes to ATL a few times per year, I did love my $98 r/t ticket two weeks ago...sure beats the $300 to $400 I used to spend. But the bloodbath seems to have abated. The tickets for next week are back over $250.

Using data from BTS, DL has about half million passengers a year O&D BOS-ATL. Let's just divide that by 350 (to factor in holiday/saturday reduced schedules). About 1400 to 1450 O&D a day. 12 * 192 is about 2300. So about 60 to 65% of capacity is filled up by O&D. If we assume 85% LF, then 3/4 of passengers are O&D. I would assume a larger portion of B6 capacity is filled with O&D although they do get a fair amount of feed also.

shoelessjoe · Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:57 am

I am confident that AM (and DL by way of the JV) know how many passengers they are sending to BJX over ATL, MEX and MTY on a daily basis and how many of those are originating at DTW and thus they made the decision to launch the flight on the E190. Additionally consider that some midwest originating passengers currently connected over ATL may now by routed over DTW on days the flight operates. Like most route decisions these days I'm sure it's a sound and rational decision to launch.

ucdtim17 · Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:36 am

AirFiero wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
enilria wrote:

*AS FLL-SFO JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
*AS LAX-MCO JUL 1.0>0.2 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
I guess they must return these MEX slots?
*AS LAX-MEX MAY 2>1.6 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0 OCT 2>1.0
AS LAX-PVR AUG 1.5>1.4
*AS MSP-SFO MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
*AS SAN-MEX MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0
AS SEA-BNA JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8
AS SEA-BUR JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
AS SEA-ORD JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5

*WN EWR-OAK SEP 0>1.0
WN IND-OAK AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
WN MCO-OAK AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
WN MSP-OAK AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
WN OAK-ONT AUG 7>8
WN OAK-PVR AUG 1.0>0.3
WN OAK-RNO JUL 3>1.9 AUG 3>1.9 SEP 3>1.8
WN OAK-SAT JUL 0>0.8 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
WN OAK-SEA JUL 6>7

I'm not too surprised to see some routes out of the SFO being dropped considering the yields and competition in those markets. It is my guess that the drop in LAX-MEX service and the dropped SAN-MEX have more to do with low loads. I'm sure we'll see much more rearranging of flights when the VX schedule is integrated with AS schedules.

I'm really impressed with WN's expansion of OAK. I never realized that WN had been adding some of those routes at OAK!

WN seems like they are expanding SJC even faster. It’s been a virtual explosion at SJC with not only WN, but other carriers.

Interesting that the early speculation that AS/VX would build a hub at SFO, and at the expense of SJC. The opposite seems to be happening unless I’ve missed some AS expansion at SFO.

They had a big expansion at SFO - the reason they have a route like SFO-MSP to cut. They did a kitchen sink expansion at SFO and some of the routes are not going to pan out.

wedgetail737 · Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:50 am

Well, it doesn't appear that AS is completely leaving the LAX-MEX market...just reducing it. Also, isn't the SFO-MEX service staying intact?

N717TW · Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:53 am

tphuang wrote:
N717TW wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
I don't see B6 pushing WN off BOS-ATL entirely. Southwest in bigger in ATL than B6 is in Boston. $45 one-way fares with bags 'flying free' shows Southwest is willing to lose money in the market. There's room for three carriers in an O&D market that size, and WN can always route connecting traffic thru ATL. I do wonder if DL will keep so much capacity in the market, at 12x 321 + 1x 320 (on a July Monday).

Such as true with many of DL's ATL routes, BOS-ATL frequency and capacity is based upon connecting traffic. I would be shocked if, on average, more than 40 passengers on a 321 between BOS-ATL were O&D.

But as someone who goes to ATL a few times per year, I did love my $98 r/t ticket two weeks ago...sure beats the $300 to $400 I used to spend. But the bloodbath seems to have abated. The tickets for next week are back over $250.

Using data from BTS, DL has about half million passengers a year O&D BOS-ATL. Let's just divide that by 350 (to factor in holiday/saturday reduced schedules). About 1400 to 1450 O&D a day. 12 * 192 is about 2300. So about 60 to 65% of capacity is filled up by O&D. If we assume 85% LF, then 3/4 of passengers are O&D. I would assume a larger portion of B6 capacity is filled with O&D although they do get a fair amount of feed also.

those numbers are both ways...so that would mean about 700 PDEW (per day each way) and that would translate into 58 per plane or 30% of a 321 (less if a 757 although more for 320, 738 or MD-90 that DL uses on the route from time to time). I was off slightly with my guess of 40 but trust me, as someone who has flown BOS-ATL/ATL-BOS 2-3x a month consistently since 2007, there is no way DL is 75% local on that route.

OB1504 · Mon Feb 19, 2018 6:29 am

MAH4546 wrote:
But I have no doubt Mint is hurting AA at MIA. I have not flown AA since JetBlue Mint entered the picture, and on my last Mint flight FLL-LAX flight you can tell it was AA defectors because people were having conversations about it with the crew. Imagine if B6 wised up and moved Mint to MIA. It would be a disaster for AA.

Not surprising considering that AA dropped all their lie-flats on MIA-LAX and went back to only standard domestic F on A321s and 737s.

tcaeyx · Mon Feb 19, 2018 6:30 am

MaverickM11 wrote:
Meanwhile EY is out and EK is down in capacity. Pretty nice to see AI doing something right.

Is SFO no longer a daily A380?

AirFiero · Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:13 am

ucdtim17 wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:

I'm not too surprised to see some routes out of the SFO being dropped considering the yields and competition in those markets. It is my guess that the drop in LAX-MEX service and the dropped SAN-MEX have more to do with low loads. I'm sure we'll see much more rearranging of flights when the VX schedule is integrated with AS schedules.

I'm really impressed with WN's expansion of OAK. I never realized that WN had been adding some of those routes at OAK!

WN seems like they are expanding SJC even faster. It’s been a virtual explosion at SJC with not only WN, but other carriers.

Interesting that the early speculation that AS/VX would build a hub at SFO, and at the expense of SJC. The opposite seems to be happening unless I’ve missed some AS expansion at SFO.

They had a big expansion at SFO - the reason they have a route like SFO-MSP to cut. They did a kitchen sink expansion at SFO and some of the routes are not going to pan out.

Any idea how many routes and flights added at SFO? There’s been a ton of adds at SJC, far more than I’d ever have anticipated.

simpv · Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:36 am

tcaeyx wrote:
MaverickM11 wrote:
Meanwhile EY is out and EK is down in capacity. Pretty nice to see AI doing something right.

Is SFO no longer a daily A380?

It's still daily A380. There were rumors on here last year about a downgauge, but it never materialized.

MAH4546 · Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:42 am

OB1504 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
But I have no doubt Mint is hurting AA at MIA. I have not flown AA since JetBlue Mint entered the picture, and on my last Mint flight FLL-LAX flight you can tell it was AA defectors because people were having conversations about it with the crew. Imagine if B6 wised up and moved Mint to MIA. It would be a disaster for AA.

Not surprising considering that AA dropped all their lie-flats on MIA-LAX and went back to only standard domestic F on A321s and 737s.

AA aus flying a 772 on the route right now, IIRC.

klm617 · Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:16 am

jetero wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
jetero wrote:

It amazes me that people think there’s a market from DTW to BJX.

Google 'automotive investment Guanajuato.'

International hotel chains, including Marriott, Hilton, and Starwood will build 52 new business hotels between 2014 and 2018 in the state of Guanajuato alone, bringing in US$350 million in investment.

http://hir.harvard.edu/article/?a=13142

klm617 wrote:
It amazes me that people think there is a market from Houston to Africa.

Did I miss something because I didn't see anything about a IAH-Africa flight being added.

klm617 · Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:18 am

Midwestindy wrote:
klm617 wrote:
It amazes me that people think there is a market from Houston to Africa.

I guess you are going to shocked when I tell you the O&D between Lagos and Houston is larger than the O&D between Houston and Frankfurt, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Mumbai, Beijing, Buenos Aires, need I mention anymore?

If that were the case where is the flight to cater to that traffic.

klm617 · Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:18 am

Midwestindy wrote:
klm617 wrote:
It amazes me that people think there is a market from Houston to Africa.

I guess you are going to shocked when I tell you the O&D between Lagos and Houston is larger than the O&D between Houston and Frankfurt, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Mumbai, Beijing, Buenos Aires, need I mention anymore?

If that were the case where is the flight to cater to that traffic.

Midwestindy · Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:44 pm

klm617 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
klm617 wrote:
It amazes me that people think there is a market from Houston to Africa.

I guess you are going to shocked when I tell you the O&D between Lagos and Houston is larger than the O&D between Houston and Frankfurt, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Mumbai, Beijing, Buenos Aires, need I mention anymore?

If that were the case where is the flight to cater to that traffic.

Dude, UA was running it until 2016 at 80%+ LF.

I honestly don't know why you engage in these conversations when you don't know what you are talking about.

O&D was not the problem, Nigeria had its worst economic crisis in 30 years during 2016, and UA had difficulty collecting money from ticket sales. This was because Nigeria restricted the amount of money that could be moved abroad during their recession, because their US currency reserves were depleted. The country ended up owing airlines like UA about $575 million...UA wasn't the only airline that pulled out IB did as well. Obviously the economy has recovered or DL wouldn't be adding JFK-LOS

lavalampluva · Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:57 pm

G4 FLL-MKE MAY 0.3>0.1
G4 MKE-IWA MAR 0.3>0
G4 MKE-PGD AUG 0.3>0.1
G4 MKE-SFB AUG 0.3>0.1

I wonder if G4 is regretting moving into MKE. That's a pretty serious cutback.

gwrudolph · Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:15 pm

Goodyear wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
Guessing the AS Florida drops (LAX-MCO and SFO-FLL) are VX flights that didn't make money?

Did any VX flights make money?

Haha--good question/statement! I don't think they were making profit on much . . .

apodino · Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:57 pm

airtrantpa wrote:
Is it just me or is G4 reducing/cutting a lot of frequencies. The last report showed them reducing just about everything out of AVL, and looks like a lot put of PIE as well, unless im reading this wrong.

On the other hand. I'm glad to see WN add LAX from TPA.

Most of the G4 cuts are at IWA, which correct me if I am wrong but it almost looks like a near G4 pullout from IWA? Am I missing something here, because that is a lot of IWA cities being dropped.

TucsonDave · Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:34 pm

capejet wrote:
Is BOS-SYR a new route for B6?

They started it in early Jan.

klm617 · Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:57 pm

shoelessjoe wrote:
I am confident that AM (and DL by way of the JV) know how many passengers they are sending to BJX over ATL, MEX and MTY on a daily basis and how many of those are originating at DTW and thus they made the decision to launch the flight on the E190. Additionally consider that some midwest originating passengers currently connected over ATL may now by routed over DTW on days the flight operates. Like most route decisions these days I'm sure it's a sound and rational decision to launch.

Not to mention the premium traffic they are losing to UA/AA because BJX is not linked to DTW nonstop.

msycajun · Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:58 pm

apodino wrote:
airtrantpa wrote:
Is it just me or is G4 reducing/cutting a lot of frequencies. The last report showed them reducing just about everything out of AVL, and looks like a lot put of PIE as well, unless im reading this wrong.

On the other hand. I'm glad to see WN add LAX from TPA.

Most of the G4 cuts are at IWA, which correct me if I am wrong but it almost looks like a near G4 pullout from IWA? Am I missing something here, because that is a lot of IWA cities being dropped.

Seems to be a reversal of last week when they switched from the AZA to the IWA code. Just a technical filing matter, but I don't think they are ending any routes.

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