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DWC
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:01 am

Under the Leeham article, "Birdy" shrewdly commented :

As the A330Neo development is almost done, it’s too late to try to kill the program. If the goal is to make a clean sweep before launching the 797, it’s not a good idea at all. Airbus will have nothing to lose to retaliate with aggressive prices (the boomerang effect). The 797 would be obviously the first casualty of a price war in the middle of market sector.

By making so much effort to kill the competition (the A330Neo or the C-series), Boeing implicitly recognizes that the competition is very valuable. So much valuable that losing money doesn’t matter. Do they realize in Chicago that a huge discount looks like self-denigration and is nothing else than a free advertisement for the competitor ?
It’s the second time in a few weeks that Airbus should thank Boeing for its help. No need to be concerned about the A330Neo program.

If true, the whole Boeing team should be fired for incompetence. Think of the CSeries boomerang fiasco : absolute beginners...
 
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Revelation
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:24 am

DWC wrote:
Under the Leeham article, "Birdy" shrewdly commented :

As the A330Neo development is almost done, it’s too late to try to kill the program. If the goal is to make a clean sweep before launching the 797, it’s not a good idea at all. Airbus will have nothing to lose to retaliate with aggressive prices (the boomerang effect). The 797 would be obviously the first casualty of a price war in the middle of market sector.

By making so much effort to kill the competition (the A330Neo or the C-series), Boeing implicitly recognizes that the competition is very valuable. So much valuable that losing money doesn’t matter. Do they realize in Chicago that a huge discount looks like self-denigration and is nothing else than a free advertisement for the competitor ?
It’s the second time in a few weeks that Airbus should thank Boeing for its help. No need to be concerned about the A330Neo program.

If true, the whole Boeing team should be fired for incompetence. Think of the CSeries boomerang fiasco : absolute beginners...

The way I see it, either Boeing is incompetent, or Leeham is "sexing up" the story because they make money when people visit their site and buy their newsletters.

Guess which one I'm going with.

Note I'm not saying Leeham is biased towards Airbus ( see earlier comments ) but to a real analyst the narrative seemed to be "more sizzle than bacon" right from the start.

Of course I turned up the heat on the frying pan from the start since it was a given that a.net would make a lot out of this story, and we did.
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hawaiian717
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:53 am

Not enthusiastic about this as a passenger. Assuming HA goes with the normal 9-across economy 787 configuration rather than 8-across, that means a narrow aisle and ~1" narrower seat than the A330 and A350 offer.

On the other hand, doing 8-across on the 789 probably solves any "too big" concerns than HA might have had.
 
BREECH
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:08 am

If it's true, and considering how much I dislike Boeing, I still have to admit that Hawaiian had every right to be angry. First, they were told that the aircraft they ordered - A350-800 - will not be built. Ever. And they were offered an alternative, the A330-800. And then they were (likely!) told that since they are the only customers for that new variant, it probably won't be built, either. And (likely!) they were offered to order A330-900. That's the definition of "jerking around", and that's about as much as the company wanted to take from Airbus. I don't really see Airbus's fault in this, but Hawaiian are probably right to switch teams. It's not about loyalty or customer service. Small companies have to do what works for them.

Maybe someone who knows more about airplanes, will tell me. Size-wise, how close/different are A350-900/A330-900 and B789? Just to know what Hawaiian is gaining/losing by switching.
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trex8
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:12 am

BREECH wrote:
If it's true, and considering how much I dislike Boeing, I still have to admit that Hawaiian had every right to be angry. First, they were told that the aircraft they ordered - A350-800 - will not be built. Ever. And they were offered an alternative, the A330-800. And then they were (likely!) told that since they are the only customers for that new variant, it probably won't be built, either. And (likely!) they were offered to order A330-900. That's the definition of "jerking around", and that's about as much as the company wanted to take from Airbus. I don't really see Airbus's fault in this, but Hawaiian are probably right to switch teams. It's not about loyalty or customer service. Small companies have to do what works for them.

Maybe someone who knows more about airplanes, will tell me. Size-wise, how close/different are A350-900/A330-900 and B789? Just to know what Hawaiian is gaining/losing by switching.

They're the only customer for the A338 today as the other one (TransAsia) went bankrupt late 2016. And I doubt they were told it wouldn't be built as Airbus just rolled out the first one earlier this month!.
 
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:18 am

JetBuddy wrote:
Leeham is speculating a sales price potentially below $100 million for the 787-9. That's dirt cheap, and not much above production cost. They regularly sell for $125 million.


How does Scott Hamilton ( of Leeham news) know what the sales price would be? Is this an estimate of what Airbus thinks and is feeding him? It is a bit suspicious where he is getting these price figures since he just happens to be in Toulouse reporting on the A350-1000 first delivery right now.
 
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scbriml
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:22 am

travelhound wrote:
If we further consider HA's requirements to fly to Europe with a 15 hour aircraft, we can only suppose their decision to convert the the A358 to the A338 was based on "other" factors.


What "other factors"? The A338 is a 15h+ aircraft. :confused:
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bigjku
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:24 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
Leeham is speculating a sales price potentially below $100 million for the 787-9. That's dirt cheap, and not much above production cost. They regularly sell for $125 million.


How does Leeham know what the sales price would be? Is this an estimate of what Airbus thinks and is feeding him? It is a bit suspicious where he is getting these price figures since he just happens to be in Toulouse reporting on the A350-1000 first delivery right now.


Regardless of what the sales price ends up being if the ultimate story is that Boeing is achieving declining cost on 787 production that can only be expected to increase as rate ramps up then the A330neo is in trouble. It’s business case is based on lower capital cost and those cost were based on 10 a month at the time program was launched. At 6 a month the cost will be higher to some degree.

The notion that senior management of Boeing should be fired is funny. It basically discredits anyone silly enough to say it.
 
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Stitch
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:34 am

BREECH wrote:
Maybe someone who knows more about airplanes, will tell me. Size-wise, how close/different are A350-900/A330-900 and B789? Just to know what Hawaiian is gaining/losing by switching.


On a pure cabin length times cabin width basis (so not fully reflective of usable floor area):

A330-800: 238 square meters
787-9: 266 square meters
A350-900: 291 square meters

The A330-800 cabin is about three meters shorter than the 787-9, which itself is about 3 meters shorter than the A350-900.


Newbiepilot wrote:
How does Scott Hamilton ( of Leeham news) know what the sales price would be? Is this an estimate of what Airbus thinks and is feeding him? It is a bit suspicious where he is getting these price figures since he just happens to be in Toulouse reporting on the A350-1000 first delivery right now.


Plenty of places for it to leak: Hawaiian Airlines; Boeing; financiers; lawyers; etc.

Once the deal is formal, HA will need to update their financial reports so seeing how their future Capital Expenditures change can give an insight into the per-frame price, as well.
 
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flee
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:36 am

bzcat wrote:
Ironically, if HA had ordered 787 instead of A358 way back, they would be getting their planes now (probably even earlier) instead of waiting for a few more years.

Not necessarily a good thing since the 787 has been suffering from a multitude of problems, the most serious of these being the lithium ion batteries and the GE/RR engine issues.
 
rbavfan
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:52 am

TWA1985 wrote:
I don’t get people on this forum, not only do you guys have some kind of an aversion to Chicago (O’Hare), but to Boeing as well ... which ironically is Chicago based. Smh.


Boeing corporate was moved to Chicago from Seattle. It should never have left Boeings home town!
 
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:59 am

If this pans out, I think it's a very aggressive strategic gambit by Boeing to kill the 338 specifically (not the A330neo generally).

It's consistent with the rumors we've heard of a bigger NMA. The problem with NMA has always been pricing: it will be hard to build it cheaply enough to distinguish itself from the A321neo on the low end and the 338 on the high end. Taking the 338 out of the market allows a bit more breathing room between a larger NMA and the A321neo. This also feels very much like Boeing cancelling the 788 between the lines, but I'm sure we won't hear about that for a few years.

Edit: Incidentally, if this sort of strategic aggressiveness is what we should expect from the Mounir regime at Boeing, things have changed a bit.
 
nomorerjs
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:00 am

Que the this is the perfect plane for HNL to:
ANC
ATL
AUS
BNA
BOS
BWI
CLE
CLT
CMH
CVG
DEN
DFW
DTW
IND
MCI
MCO
MKE
MIA
MSP
MSY
ORD
PHL
RDU
STL
TPA

And that’s just the lower 48. Throw in CDG, LHR s d FRA from Europe and the future BOG, CUN, EZE, GIG, GRU, LIM, MEX, PTY, and SCL and we have connected the world.
 
azjubilee
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:03 am

bzcat wrote:
Been saying for a while that 787-9 makes sense for HA if A358 was what they wanted.

Ironically, if HA had ordered 787 instead of A358 way back, they would be getting their planes now (probably even earlier) instead of waiting for a few more years.


There's no real irony here. When the 330/350 order was placed in 2008, Boeing was unable to meet HALs needs for deliveries. In retrospect it was a wise move, as we all now know, the 787s were plagued with delays and problems.
 
rbavfan
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:05 am

Wikipedia has already been updated to 6 789 in place of the 6 A338's. Mind you it also notes deliveries to start in 2017. Seems they changed most of the text & forgot to adjust the date.
 
BREECH
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:07 am

Stitch wrote:
BREECH wrote:
Maybe someone who knows more about airplanes, will tell me. Size-wise, how close/different are A350-900/A330-900 and B789? Just to know what Hawaiian is gaining/losing by switching.


On a pure cabin length times cabin width basis (so not fully reflective of usable floor area):

A330-800: 238 square meters
787-9: 266 square meters
A350-900: 291 square meters

The A330-800 cabin is about three meters shorter than the 787-9, which itself is about 3 meters shorter than the A350-900.

So 789 is a bit too big for them (they're flying 767s now if I remember correctly), and A350-900 would be WAY too big?
No friendship, love or respect unite people as much as shared hatred.
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rbavfan
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:22 am

Slash787 wrote:
If HA did not wanted to take the planes, then they should have cancelled the order, Airbus built the 2 test planes for nothing. Maybe Iran Air would be interested in those test planes if HA is not taking them.


Airbus needed to certify the A338 anyway as it's the bases for future MMRT upgrades & possible freighter. So it's not all wasted the upgrades to 251t would also help both those options.
 
travelhound
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:28 am

scbriml wrote:
travelhound wrote:
If we further consider HA's requirements to fly to Europe with a 15 hour aircraft, we can only suppose their decision to convert the the A358 to the A338 was based on "other" factors.


What "other factors"? The A338 is a 15h+ aircraft. :confused:


The 77W ia real 15 hour aircraft and even it would have problems trying to fly some of the routes mentioned with a full payload.

.....and this is where the question lies. What sort of payload, in a real world environment could the A338 fly 8000nm with. I suspect a lot less than a 789.

CASM for these aircraft can substantially blow out when flying at the fringes of range capability.
 
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767333ER
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:30 am

Austin787 wrote:
787-8 makes more sense for HA if they are going the 787 route.

The 787-8 is an all but dead product. The logic seems to be the lack of good reason why would anyone want a plane that costs the same to operate as its larger counterpart, but holds less people/cargo, has no range advantage, and probably would cost more to maintain. Plus the 787-8 costs more to build so Boeing would have to either lose more money or charge more.
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:38 am

767333ER wrote:
Austin787 wrote:
787-8 makes more sense for HA if they are going the 787 route.

The 787-8 is an all but dead product. The logic seems to be the lack of good reason why would anyone want a plane that costs the same to operate as its larger counterpart, but holds less people/cargo, has no range advantage, and probably would cost more to maintain. Plus the 787-8 costs more to build so Boeing would have to either lose more money or charge more.


I recognize the 787-8 market has dried up, but not for the reasons you give.

The 787-8 OEW is 20K lbs lower than the 787-9, so it does not cost the same to operate. The OEW difference will result in lower fuel burn. The reason for the OEW difference is that Boeing wanted to make the 787-8 as efficient as they could originally so that there would be a market for both the 788 and 789. The OEW difference between the A332 and A333 is closer to 10K lbs for reference and shares many more common components.

On what basis would a brand new 787-8 cost more to maintain than a 787-9?

I have read a.net myths that the 787-8 costs more to build due to unique parts, but I don’t know if that is actually correct.

The reason that I have heard is that production costs are sufficiently similar to the 787-9 that the sales price for the 787-8 and 787-9 have to be very similar to earn a profit. However airlines typically will pay less for lower capacity airplanes since it has less revenue potential. For the same price, the 787-9 is more attractive to Airlines since it flies further with more payload and passengers for the same purchase price. This may be why Hawaiian would want the 787-9 over the 787-8.
Last edited by Newbiepilot on Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:44 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:39 am

nomorerjs wrote:
Que the this is the perfect plane for HNL to:

MCO
MIA
TPA


Three of Florida's largest airports? There's a reason they call this place the Sunshine State.

About the only thing Hawaii has over Florida (and probably other places in much closer reach to Florida such as the Caribbean) is natural, predictable lava views.
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william
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:41 am

DWC wrote:
Under the Leeham article, "Birdy" shrewdly commented :

As the A330Neo development is almost done, it’s too late to try to kill the program. If the goal is to make a clean sweep before launching the 797, it’s not a good idea at all. Airbus will have nothing to lose to retaliate with aggressive prices (the boomerang effect). The 797 would be obviously the first casualty of a price war in the middle of market sector.

By making so much effort to kill the competition (the A330Neo or the C-series), Boeing implicitly recognizes that the competition is very valuable. So much valuable that losing money doesn’t matter. Do they realize in Chicago that a huge discount looks like self-denigration and is nothing else than a free advertisement for the competitor ?
It’s the second time in a few weeks that Airbus should thank Boeing for its help. No need to be concerned about the A330Neo program.

If true, the whole Boeing team should be fired for incompetence. Think of the CSeries boomerang fiasco : absolute beginners...



Yeah, because A330NEO is selling so well at fire sale prices now. Maybe.........just maybe, the airlines want something "else".
 
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Revelation
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:50 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
How does Scott Hamilton ( of Leeham news) know what the sales price would be? Is this an estimate of what Airbus thinks and is feeding him? It is a bit suspicious where he is getting these price figures since he just happens to be in Toulouse reporting on the A350-1000 first delivery right now.

Before I read your post, I was re-reading the Leeham article which IMHO has a telling passage:

LNC is told Boeing “was determined to win at any cost.” Boeing bid below Airbus’ cost of building the airplanes, LNC is told, though it’s unclear whether this was below the cost of the A330-800 or the A350-900. Since Hawaiian wanted out of the A330 contract, because it was the only customer for the airplane, the context suggest the Boeing price was below the cost of the A350-900.

The only one who knows Airbus's cost of building airplanes is Airbus itself. That number is very closely held. The statement is extremely direct. All this makes me pretty confident that it is Airbus who is feeding this info to Leeham/Hamilton.

bigjku wrote:
I think Boeing sees the whole A330neo as vulnerable. When the program was launched the economics were based on 7-8 per month moving to 10 per month. Now they are talking about staying at 6 per month. I wonder what impact that has on the price Airbus is willing to sell the plane at? The whole economic case was based on its capital cost being substantially lower than the 787. Is that still true with rates going up on one and down on the other?

Very good points, but it also could be that Airbus sees Boeing as vulnerable to low margins on 789 therefore is pushing the "Boeing is selling 789s dirt cheap" narrative via Leeham/Hamilton. Losing HA's widebody business would be a small price to pay if it ended up undermining 789 margins.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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d8s
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:50 am

william wrote:
Hawaiian ordered the A330-800 for a reason, they like the specs. What would have changed if this is true to make such a switch?


What changed? Their minds...so what? You were going to buy a Ford, bought a Chevy instead.
 
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william
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:51 am

What is the base size for the A350? Was it the 800, or was it a shrink and the 900 is the base?

Funny how the A350-800 suffered the same fate as the 787-8.
 
d8s
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:54 am

rlwynn wrote:
Too bad. Hopefully it does not happen.


Why is it too bad?
 
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william
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:57 am

Revelation wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
How does Scott Hamilton ( of Leeham news) know what the sales price would be? Is this an estimate of what Airbus thinks and is feeding him? It is a bit suspicious where he is getting these price figures since he just happens to be in Toulouse reporting on the A350-1000 first delivery right now.

Before I read your post, I was re-reading the Leeham article which IMHO has a telling passage:

LNC is told Boeing “was determined to win at any cost.” Boeing bid below Airbus’ cost of building the airplanes, LNC is told, though it’s unclear whether this was below the cost of the A330-800 or the A350-900. Since Hawaiian wanted out of the A330 contract, because it was the only customer for the airplane, the context suggest the Boeing price was below the cost of the A350-900.

The only one who knows Airbus's cost of building airplanes is Airbus itself. That number is very closely held. The statement is extremely direct. All this makes me pretty confident that it is Airbus who is feeding this info to Leeham/Hamilton.

bigjku wrote:
I think Boeing sees the whole A330neo as vulnerable. When the program was launched the economics were based on 7-8 per month moving to 10 per month. Now they are talking about staying at 6 per month. I wonder what impact that has on the price Airbus is willing to sell the plane at? The whole economic case was based on its capital cost being substantially lower than the 787. Is that still true with rates going up on one and down on the other?

Very good points, but it also could be that Airbus sees Boeing as vulnerable to low margins on 789 therefore is pushing the "Boeing is selling 789s dirt cheap" narrative via Leeham/Hamilton. Losing HA's widebody business would be a small price to pay if it ended up undermining 789 margins.


So Airbus is getting the "bad news" out there quickly so it can control the message," Boeing sold 787-9s at a loss".Smart.
 
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Stitch
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:57 am

BREECH wrote:
So 789 is a bit too big for them (they're flying 767s now if I remember correctly), and A350-900 would be WAY too big?


The backbone of HA's fleet is the A330-200 at 24 frames compared to 7 767-300ER (which are being returned as they come off lease).


william wrote:
What is the base size for the A350? Was it the 800, or was it a shrink and the 900 is the base?


The A350-900 is the baseline. The A350-800 would have been a ~6 meter shrink (6 frames removed forward of the wing and 4 aft).


william wrote:
Funny how the A350-800 suffered the same fate as the 787-8.


The A350-800 started as an optimized sub-variant of the A350-900, however as the program's milestones started to slip in 2010, Airbus decided to just make it a straight fuselage shrink which raised the OEW and increased the fuel burn though it did allow them to boost the MTOW to increase payload and range. The following year they pushed back EIS by two years (from 2014 to 2016). Together, this pushed most A350-800 customers to switch to the A350-900.
Last edited by Stitch on Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:12 am

d8s wrote:
william wrote:
Hawaiian ordered the A330-800 for a reason, they like the specs. What would have changed if this is true to make such a switch?


What changed? Their minds...so what? You were going to buy a Ford, bought a Chevy instead.

We were told earlier that the deposits got shifted over to A321 quite a while ago.

It seems obvious that the A330-800 order was just a place holder, useful till HA decided what they really wanted to do in the widebody space.

If it wasn't, then Airbus would have grounds to go after HA for not taking the A380-800.

Instead we see Airbus getting their narrative out via Leeham/Hamilton before the 789 deal is officially announced.
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BREECH
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:15 am

bigjku wrote:
I think Boeing sees the whole A330neo as vulnerable. When the program was launched the economics were based on 7-8 per month moving to 10 per month. Now they are talking about staying at 6 per month. I wonder what impact that has on the price Airbus is willing to sell the plane at? The whole economic case was based on its capital cost being substantially lower than the 787. Is that still true with rates going up on one and down on the other?

Airbus is selling A330neo at the prices they want. And I can bet any money within 20 euros that they are making profit. The plane has paid for itself many times over, and that includes the cost of developing the neo. A330-800 doesn't sell YET, but, as was said above, it will. MRTT, freighter, plus the orders that WILL come when old -200s dry out.

It's Boeing who need to sell their planes at a loss to win contracts. And the worst news for Boeing is that now everyone knows how desperate they are. They have enough orders to pay off the enormous investments in the development. But they also need a money maker, and with their current range of old, very old and ancient airframes, combined with billions of dollars buried in each project, they need sales more than their next breath.

Airbus has Boeing exactly where they want it. I know this war is far from over, but with the very expensive 748, the VERY expensive 787, and the luckluster 777X, not to mention the 60-year-old 737WAX, Boeing has pushed itself into a corner. And with the 797 on the horizon, I don't think their situation will improve much soon.
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:16 am

william wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
How does Scott Hamilton ( of Leeham news) know what the sales price would be? Is this an estimate of what Airbus thinks and is feeding him? It is a bit suspicious where he is getting these price figures since he just happens to be in Toulouse reporting on the A350-1000 first delivery right now.

Before I read your post, I was re-reading the Leeham article which IMHO has a telling passage:

LNC is told Boeing “was determined to win at any cost.” Boeing bid below Airbus’ cost of building the airplanes, LNC is told, though it’s unclear whether this was below the cost of the A330-800 or the A350-900. Since Hawaiian wanted out of the A330 contract, because it was the only customer for the airplane, the context suggest the Boeing price was below the cost of the A350-900.

The only one who knows Airbus's cost of building airplanes is Airbus itself. That number is very closely held. The statement is extremely direct. All this makes me pretty confident that it is Airbus who is feeding this info to Leeham/Hamilton.

bigjku wrote:
I think Boeing sees the whole A330neo as vulnerable. When the program was launched the economics were based on 7-8 per month moving to 10 per month. Now they are talking about staying at 6 per month. I wonder what impact that has on the price Airbus is willing to sell the plane at? The whole economic case was based on its capital cost being substantially lower than the 787. Is that still true with rates going up on one and down on the other?

Very good points, but it also could be that Airbus sees Boeing as vulnerable to low margins on 789 therefore is pushing the "Boeing is selling 789s dirt cheap" narrative via Leeham/Hamilton. Losing HA's widebody business would be a small price to pay if it ended up undermining 789 margins.


So Airbus is getting the "bad news" out there quickly so it can control the message," Boeing sold 787-9s at a loss".Smart.


Airbus is masterful at marketing. Selling below the cost to build an A350 is not the same as selling the 787-9 at a loss. They are trying to turn the story of Airbus losing a customer to Boeing as a negative for Boeing. They probably fed the story to Leeham
 
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NeBaNi
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:26 am

Assuming all of this is true, I do feel a bit disappointed about the future of the A330-800, but the 787-9 makes more sense for Hawaiian. As a small-to-medium sized airline, HA will probably find it cheaper to operate the 787-9s, due to greater availability of parts and maintenance for a more "mainstream" aircraft. I do expect to see a top-up order for the A321neo in the future though.
 
Max Q
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:42 am

Great choice by Hawaiian



And I predict Europe flights will be a big
success, Honolulu may be ‘Americanized’
but it’s very exotic to many Europeans and
different enough to be a very attractive destination, not to mention the other islands in the chain


I wonder how many of you that disparage
Hawaii have ever been there and /or have left Waikiki and explored some of the most beautiful places on earth?
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:48 am

nomorerjs wrote:
Que the this is the perfect plane for HNL to:
ANC
ATL
AUS
BNA
BOS
BWI
CLE
CLT
CMH
CVG
DEN
DFW
DTW
IND
MCI
MCO
MKE
MIA
MSP
MSY
ORD
PHL
RDU
STL
TPA

And that’s just the lower 48. Throw in CDG, LHR s d FRA from Europe and the future BOG, CUN, EZE, GIG, GRU, LIM, MEX, PTY, and SCL and we have connected the world.


You really think HA would be sending their 789s to MSY, MKE and MCI? And what demand is there to/from GRU or BOG?
@DadCelo
 
bigjku
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:49 am

BREECH wrote:
bigjku wrote:
I think Boeing sees the whole A330neo as vulnerable. When the program was launched the economics were based on 7-8 per month moving to 10 per month. Now they are talking about staying at 6 per month. I wonder what impact that has on the price Airbus is willing to sell the plane at? The whole economic case was based on its capital cost being substantially lower than the 787. Is that still true with rates going up on one and down on the other?

Airbus is selling A330neo at the prices they want. And I can bet any money within 20 euros that they are making profit. The plane has paid for itself many times over, and that includes the cost of developing the neo. A330-800 doesn't sell YET, but, as was said above, it will. MRTT, freighter, plus the orders that WILL come when old -200s dry out.

It's Boeing who need to sell their planes at a loss to win contracts. And the worst news for Boeing is that now everyone knows how desperate they are. They have enough orders to pay off the enormous investments in the development. But they also need a money maker, and with their current range of old, very old and ancient airframes, combined with billions of dollars buried in each project, they need sales more than their next breath.

Airbus has Boeing exactly where they want it. I know this war is far from over, but with the very expensive 748, the VERY expensive 787, and the luckluster 777X, not to mention the 60-year-old 737WAX, Boeing has pushed itself into a corner. And with the 797 on the horizon, I don't think their situation will improve much soon.


That really seems like a spot on analysis. Just dynamite really.

Both Boeing and Airbus sell the A350 and 787 at higher prices because they can. The A330neo has its whole business case based on being significantly cheaper than the 787 and the list prices no longer seem to suggest that is the case. You can shrug off a production rate cut of 40% but that has a major impact on what the actual production cost is.

The fact of the matter is neither airframer is selling planes at a consistent loss. Anyone shouting that is being unreasonable. And it’s pure denial to say that Airbus doesn’t have a potential issue on its hand with the A330neo. Yeah, they may not lose a lot of money on the NEO. But if it gets wiped out of the market there is a rather large product gap that has to be addressed.

But clearly Boeing is about to be crushed. It’s very clear really.
 
travaz
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:08 am

BREECH wrote:
bigjku wrote:
I think Boeing sees the whole A330neo as vulnerable. When the program was launched the economics were based on 7-8 per month moving to 10 per month. Now they are talking about staying at 6 per month. I wonder what impact that has on the price Airbus is willing to sell the plane at? The whole economic case was based on its capital cost being substantially lower than the 787. Is that still true with rates going up on one and down on the other?

Airbus is selling A330neo at the prices they want. And I can bet any money within 20 euros that they are making profit. The plane has paid for itself many times over, and that includes the cost of developing the neo. A330-800 doesn't sell YET, but, as was said above, it will. MRTT, freighter, plus the orders that WILL come when old -200s dry out.

It's Boeing who need to sell their planes at a loss to win contracts. And the worst news for Boeing is that now everyone knows how desperate they are. They have enough orders to pay off the enormous investments in the development. But they also need a money maker, and with their current range of old, very old and ancient airframes, combined with billions of dollars buried in each project, they need sales more than their next breath.

Airbus has Boeing exactly where they want it. I know this war is far from over, but with the very expensive 748, the VERY expensive 787, and the luckluster 777X, not to mention the 60-year-old 737WAX, Boeing has pushed itself into a corner. And with the 797 on the horizon, I don't think their situation will improve much soon.


Wow spoken like a true fan boy. A very expensive A380 , A very expensive A350 and a Lackluster 330 Neo and a 1980's design 320 Family. But Airbus is not backed into a corner? I for one enjoy flying on all types of Aircraft. I am not a fan boy of any. Airlines buy equipment that is made to do the mission they intend to do not because they like A or B. Hawaiian made a business decision that would help the company move forward and improve profitability. NO ONE on this sight knows what any of these deals entailed. Yes we have people that are knowledgeable and have great insight into the industry and I enjoy reading many of their post. The statement above is pure and simple flag waving IMHO.

Remember the 787-3?
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:08 am

BREECH wrote:

Airbus has Boeing exactly where they want it. I know this war is far from over, but with the very expensive 748, the VERY expensive 787, and the luckluster 777X, not to mention the 60-year-old 737WAX, Boeing has pushed itself into a corner. And with the 797 on the horizon, I don't think their situation will improve much soon.


Your logic is pretty twisted if you think Airbus losing the only customer for the A330-800, means that Airbus has Boeing exactly where they want. The A330-800 may be one of the first jets ever to reach first flight with no customers. That is a problem for them, which is made worse by Boeing potentially being ready to launch another plane. I may have my own biases, but to say that Airbus is in a good position with Hawaiian defecting does not make sense to me since it is not a good thing for the future of the A330neo
 
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:16 am

NeBaNi wrote:
Assuming all of this is true, I do feel a bit disappointed about the future of the A330-800, but the 787-9 makes more sense for Hawaiian. As a small-to-medium sized airline, HA will probably find it cheaper to operate the 787-9s, due to greater availability of parts and maintenance for a more "mainstream" aircraft. I do expect to see a top-up order for the A321neo in the future though.


Given the comments they made about the A321neo, I could see more orders for them replacing the A330.

I speculated A321neos could replace the A330neo order a couple weeks ago in this thread

viewtopic.php?t=1385195
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:21 am

Wow. I gotta say I'm surprised. But hey, good for Boeing if they've scored a coup like this. This is, as others have intimated, probable proof that there are no other A338 orders out there, certainly not in the near term. Is there any other word on this? Was HA truly the only allegedly firm customer or will other airlines eventually take the planes?
 
hayzel777
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:34 am

bigjku wrote:
BREECH wrote:
bigjku wrote:
I think Boeing sees the whole A330neo as vulnerable. When the program was launched the economics were based on 7-8 per month moving to 10 per month. Now they are talking about staying at 6 per month. I wonder what impact that has on the price Airbus is willing to sell the plane at? The whole economic case was based on its capital cost being substantially lower than the 787. Is that still true with rates going up on one and down on the other?

Airbus is selling A330neo at the prices they want. And I can bet any money within 20 euros that they are making profit. The plane has paid for itself many times over, and that includes the cost of developing the neo. A330-800 doesn't sell YET, but, as was said above, it will. MRTT, freighter, plus the orders that WILL come when old -200s dry out.

It's Boeing who need to sell their planes at a loss to win contracts. And the worst news for Boeing is that now everyone knows how desperate they are. They have enough orders to pay off the enormous investments in the development. But they also need a money maker, and with their current range of old, very old and ancient airframes, combined with billions of dollars buried in each project, they need sales more than their next breath.

Airbus has Boeing exactly where they want it. I know this war is far from over, but with the very expensive 748, the VERY expensive 787, and the luckluster 777X, not to mention the 60-year-old 737WAX, Boeing has pushed itself into a corner. And with the 797 on the horizon, I don't think their situation will improve much soon.


That really seems like a spot on analysis. Just dynamite really.

Both Boeing and Airbus sell the A350 and 787 at higher prices because they can. The A330neo has its whole business case based on being significantly cheaper than the 787 and the list prices no longer seem to suggest that is the case. You can shrug off a production rate cut of 40% but that has a major impact on what the actual production cost is.

The fact of the matter is neither airframer is selling planes at a consistent loss. Anyone shouting that is being unreasonable. And it’s pure denial to say that Airbus doesn’t have a potential issue on its hand with the A330neo. Yeah, they may not lose a lot of money on the NEO. But if it gets wiped out of the market there is a rather large product gap that has to be addressed.

But clearly Boeing is about to be crushed. It’s very clear really.

Crushed? Seriously? it's not like the rest of Boeing sales have become stagnant...
 
MSPNWA
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:50 am

Quite the steal by Boeing. I'm not surprised that HA is ditching the A338, nor I am surprised they're replacing it with the 789, but until a deal was made it could have gone differently. Looking forward to seeing an HA 789, and I hope to catch a ride someday.

Airbus has a huge hole in the small widebody market. HA might also be looking down the road at a potential Boeing 797 when their A332s come up for replacement. The 787 makes more sense in that scenario. I don't think Airbus has a competitive offering in that size range.
 
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:54 am

BREECH wrote:
Stitch wrote:
BREECH wrote:
Maybe someone who knows more about airplanes, will tell me. Size-wise, how close/different are A350-900/A330-900 and B789? Just to know what Hawaiian is gaining/losing by switching.


On a pure cabin length times cabin width basis (so not fully reflective of usable floor area):

A330-800: 238 square meters
787-9: 266 square meters
A350-900: 291 square meters

The A330-800 cabin is about three meters shorter than the 787-9, which itself is about 3 meters shorter than the A350-900.

So 789 is a bit too big for them (they're flying 767s now if I remember correctly), and A350-900 would be WAY too big?


The 787-9 is close in size to the A350-800, the airplane HA wanted to order originally.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:19 am

Now this is interesting...

I'll agree with others the A321NEO is replacing many potential A330 missions.

So the questions I have, if this order does happen (late edit):
1. When first delivery? Is HA an early beneficiary of the 787 rate increase?
2. How long is the 767 in HA's fleet? #1 at risk of A321 replacement
3. How many 789?
4. Which engine?

JetBuddy wrote:
Leeham is speculating a sales price potentially below $100 million for the 787-9. That's dirt cheap, and not much above production cost. They regularly sell for $125 million.

Boeing will have ot make money off ancillary revenue. They'll manage.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:20 am

lightsaber wrote:
2. How long is the 767 in HA's fleet? #1 at risk of A321 replacement


Leeham claims that the deal includes Boeing terminating Hawaiian's lease early on three BCC-owned 767-300ERs, and that the frames will subsequently go to United.

Edit: These are the newest three of the seven 767s still in operation, all Signature Interior frames built in 2002. Having the Signature Interior already will certainly make it cheaper to refit them for UA.
 
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:25 am

From past A.net postings it seems the A330NEO is worse than the CEO below 2000nm. It is slightly worse than the 787 on 2000-4000nm missions, and it becomes far worse at over 4000nm.

DL's use case scenario of TATL has the A330NEO flying 3000-4000nm routes. However for HA, it seems the 2000-4000nm "sweet spot" of the A330NEO can be covered sufficiently by the A321NEO (and maybe LR), and the proposed 6000nm+ ULH mission profile for HA's A338 is uncompetitive versus the 787. If Airbus couldn't compete on pricing as the Leeham article seems to imply; the original advantage of the A330NEO vs the 787, is it far-fetched to assume the A330NEO program is in trouble? It covers too small of a niche.

As for future A330CEO replacements and "potential" A330NEO sales, many Asian carriers use the CEO in sub-2000nm sectors where again, it seems the CEO is actually better. I think it's telling that Cathay has no A330NEOs on order, with many A350s on order. Same goes for Singapore Airlines.
 
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:44 am

seabosdca wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
2. How long is the 767 in HA's fleet? #1 at risk of A321 replacement


Leeham claims that the deal includes Boeing terminating Hawaiian's lease early on three BCC-owned 767-300ERs, and that the frames will subsequently go to United.

Edit: These are the newest three of the seven 767s still in operation, all Signature Interior frames built in 2002. Having the Signature Interior already will certainly make it cheaper to refit them for UA.


The lease of the 3 former HA 763s via BCC was announced at the last UA earnings call.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:48 am

OldAeroGuy wrote:
The 787-9 is close in size to the A350-800, the airplane HA wanted to order originally.


Exactly. For the original HA RFP, Airbus offered the A350-800 + A330-200(interim) while Boeing offered the 787-9 + 767-300ER(interim). To say the 787-9 is too big is forgetting that that is exactly the size aircraft HA wanted and originally ordered in the A350-800. In an interview with the Honolulu Advertiser shortly after the order announcement, Mark Dunkerley indicated that the A350-800 and 787-9 were basically tied performance, capacity, and cost wise. It was the capabilities of A330-200 as the interim aircraft that pushed the order to Airbus.
 
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:57 am

A fleet compromised of the 321 for the west coast and 789 for everywhere else, possibly Europe, makes a lot of sense.
A313 332 343 B703 712 722 732 73G 738 739 741 742 744 752 762 76E 764 772 AT5 CR9 D10 DHH DHT F27 GRM L10 M83 TU5

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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:59 am

bigjku wrote:
Boeing uses an accounting block to account for profits ...

That makes sense, Thank you.
 
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Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:02 am

JetBuddy wrote:
Leeham is speculating a sales price potentially below $100 million for the 787-9. That's dirt cheap, and not much above production cost. They regularly sell for $125 million.


But since the sale is domestic, price-dumping can't be argued.
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