Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
ROCDLFAN
Posts: 256
Joined: Fri May 01, 2015 2:43 am

Re: Upstate New York Thread - 2018

Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:24 pm

I am excited about the fact that ROC will be hitting above 2.5 million for the first time I believe this decade.

One thing that I thought would be kind of fun (something that can sometimes get away from us innthis thread with the slightly unnecessary competitive nature between us and our airports) would be a predictions list for what we see happening in 2019. Note, I’m not seeing this as a wishlist but as legitimate predictions on what could happen for your station. I’ll start with ROC:

Based off of the strong bookings so far with BOS, B6 decides to get back into the Florida game with MCO or FLL in some capacity or another

AA announces E175 service to DFW

Someone, somewhere, somehow announces DEN. Whether it be UA on an E175 (something that has been rumored for the better part of 2 years now) or F9 tries their hand by entering the market, it’s absurd that ROC is now officially the largest city in New York and one of the largest if not the largest on the east coast that doesn’t have non stop service to DEN.

The growth continues, and ROC hits above 2.6 million passengers for 2019 and will be on course to hit 3 million by 2022

Let’s please not bash anyone’s predictions and consider all possibilities when posting.
"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee."
 
BUFJACK10
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2016 6:09 pm

Re: Upstate New York Thread - 2018

Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:22 pm

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
WeatherPilot wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
BNIA / Buffalo airport just surpassed 5 million passengers ....... I am honestly kind of bummed by this. I was hoping a full year of F9 would get them back up to 5.4 to 5.5 million. The Buffalo airport still has ways to go before we get back to pre airline mergers.


I just had to lol hearing you bummed about BUF only getting to 5 million pax while I'm over here cheering SYR on getting 2.2 million. Two different worlds.


Yeah i honestly thought 5.4 to 5.5 was attainable with F9 and additional flights. The last time the airport had 5.4 million passengers it was in 2007 and 2008.


The jump from 2017 at 4.6 million to 2018 5+ million is still progress.


I shouldve realized that F9 isnt daily for all their flights .... if they were daily, i bet we wouldve hit that mark.


True, BNIA does have a way to go to get to the 5.5 million mark. A number of things could occur to make that happen.

Airlines using larger aircraft. The demand is there on some days, but not all so capacity could remain constant for a while,
A devaluing of the dollar to make it more attractive for Canadians to utilize BNIA, but no one wants to see a devalued dollar.
To gain an additional 400K in passengers it would require an additional 1,100 (est) seats per day. MIA and DFW service helps, but one is seasonal and combined it only accounts for 250 seats per day leaving 850 seats still needed or the equivalent of 5 1/2 150 seaters or or 17 50 seaters. Even 75 seaters require at least 11 aircraft to take up the slack.
I’m confident growth will occur for all upstate airports, but it will take time. You can say consolidation had a lot to do with it, but until demand increases and airlines begin to use larger aircraft to reduce CPM while increasing revenue it will take longer. ULCC count for much of the growth and if you include IAG with BUF the traffic numbers are close to 5.4. Legacy carriers are looking for more premium passengers vs the leisure crowd which is a part of the reason Legacies don’t add more to upstate. The P2P premium business travelers are fewer than they would like.

All in all, congratulations to all upstate airports for a good year.
AA AK AL AQ AS B6 CO DL EA FL F9 HP KN NY MO NW PA PE PI RC QX TW UA UR US WN AF AN AO CS IB OA TR VS
A300 A319 A320 BAE146 BAC111 DC8 DC9 DC10 MD80 707 717 727 737 747 757 767 777 787 L10 F27 F28 F100 ERJ CRJ SE-210 SSC B1900 ATR42 ATR72 DH8 E120 SWM
 
Buffalomatt1027
Posts: 441
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:02 am

Re: Upstate New York Thread - 2018

Fri Dec 28, 2018 9:39 pm

BUFJACK10 wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
WeatherPilot wrote:

I just had to lol hearing you bummed about BUF only getting to 5 million pax while I'm over here cheering SYR on getting 2.2 million. Two different worlds.


Yeah i honestly thought 5.4 to 5.5 was attainable with F9 and additional flights. The last time the airport had 5.4 million passengers it was in 2007 and 2008.


The jump from 2017 at 4.6 million to 2018 5+ million is still progress.


I shouldve realized that F9 isnt daily for all their flights .... if they were daily, i bet we wouldve hit that mark.


True, BNIA does have a way to go to get to the 5.5 million mark. A number of things could occur to make that happen.

Airlines using larger aircraft. The demand is there on some days, but not all so capacity could remain constant for a while,
A devaluing of the dollar to make it more attractive for Canadians to utilize BNIA, but no one wants to see a devalued dollar.
To gain an additional 400K in passengers it would require an additional 1,100 (est) seats per day. MIA and DFW service helps, but one is seasonal and combined it only accounts for 250 seats per day leaving 850 seats still needed or the equivalent of 5 1/2 150 seaters or or 17 50 seaters. Even 75 seaters require at least 11 aircraft to take up the slack.
I’m confident growth will occur for all upstate airports, but it will take time. You can say consolidation had a lot to do with it, but until demand increases and airlines begin to use larger aircraft to reduce CPM while increasing revenue it will take longer. ULCC count for much of the growth and if you include IAG with BUF the traffic numbers are close to 5.4. Legacy carriers are looking for more premium passengers vs the leisure crowd which is a part of the reason Legacies don’t add more to upstate. The P2P premium business travelers are fewer than they would like.

All in all, congratulations to all upstate airports for a good year.


Pre airline merger - how did BNIA hit that mark? Most Southwest flights to Florida? Airtran flights to Atlanta?? Legacy carriers flew more routes out of Buffalo?

As for Canadian passengers- I dont think devaluing the dollar is the way to go. I think Canadians come for the convenience too. Short security, no customs, and cheaper parking that in Toronto. If BNIA knows where most Canadians like to travel and attempt to give that data to airlines. WN, F9, and B6 all do that now with flying to Florida.

Airlines do use larger aircraft when its needed. If you check out F9 and AA. Both will use the A321s when needed. F9 has used them for Orlando and Ft Myers and AA uses them for Charlotte in the mornings and at night. Any other airlines doing that is almost unheard of. Cant think of Delta, B6, or United ever doing that.

Daily flights- As you mentioned before with DFW daily flights. The airport needs more of those. WN will start daily service to Denver this summer, F9 has already started that. A daily a320 with 120 - 150 passengers adds up passenger count wise throughout an entire year.
 
Buffalomatt1027
Posts: 441
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:02 am

Re: Upstate New York Thread - 2018

Fri Dec 28, 2018 9:45 pm

ROCDLFAN wrote:
I am excited about the fact that ROC will be hitting above 2.5 million for the first time I believe this decade.

One thing that I thought would be kind of fun (something that can sometimes get away from us innthis thread with the slightly unnecessary competitive nature between us and our airports) would be a predictions list for what we see happening in 2019. Note, I’m not seeing this as a wishlist but as legitimate predictions on what could happen for your station. I’ll start with ROC:

Based off of the strong bookings so far with BOS, B6 decides to get back into the Florida game with MCO or FLL in some capacity or another

AA announces E175 service to DFW

Someone, somewhere, somehow announces DEN. Whether it be UA on an E175 (something that has been rumored for the better part of 2 years now) or F9 tries their hand by entering the market, it’s absurd that ROC is now officially the largest city in New York and one of the largest if not the largest on the east coast that doesn’t have non stop service to DEN.

The growth continues, and ROC hits above 2.6 million passengers for 2019 and will be on course to hit 3 million by 2022

Let’s please not bash anyone’s predictions and consider all possibilities when posting.


The problem with ROC is that its an hour away from BUF. I used to live in Rochester and I know A LOT of people from Rochester would drive to Buffalo and fly out of BNIA over flying out of ROC. Why: Its cheaper and more convenient times to fly out.
 
DCA-ROCguy
Topic Author
Posts: 4207
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2000 5:03 am

Re: Upstate New York Thread - 2018

Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:30 pm

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
The problem with ROC is that its an hour away from BUF. I used to live in Rochester and I know A LOT of people from Rochester would drive to Buffalo and fly out of BNIA over flying out of ROC. Why: Its cheaper and more convenient times to fly out.


Do you have any studies to provide actual leakage numbers? Can you show schedules? "I know people" is not a sufficient answer, even if you claim "a lot," whatever that means. Also, I don't buy that supposedly there are 'more convenient times' at BUF. The legacies fly to the same hubs with the same banks. Given that one is driving an hour to an hour and a half, that's going to eat up any incremental difference if there's a flight or two more daily from BUF to a given hub.

I get really sick of this constant uninformed no-facts dogging on ROC. And yes, I'm going to punch back every time I hear it. You have produced NO actual evidence in this post that ROC has such a significant leakage problem that people--who would much rather fly from home than drive to another city--would not fly on additional flights from ROC if they are priced right.

ROCLDFAN's predictions sound reasonable to me based on 2018's encouraging enplanement numbers. I'm really glad to hear we're getting over 2.5 million again. Any progress is welcome. DEN and DFW both sound reasonable to me with E75-sized aircraft, because they reduce the number of double-connections. Such flights could lead to some downgauging to ORD, but that would be a worthwhile price for picking up two significant additional hubs.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
Buffalomatt1027
Posts: 441
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:02 am

Re: Upstate New York Thread - 2018

Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:02 am

DCA-ROCguy wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
The problem with ROC is that its an hour away from BUF. I used to live in Rochester and I know A LOT of people from Rochester would drive to Buffalo and fly out of BNIA over flying out of ROC. Why: Its cheaper and more convenient times to fly out.


Do you have any studies to provide actual leakage numbers? Can you show schedules? "I know people" is not a sufficient answer, even if you claim "a lot," whatever that means. Also, I don't buy that supposedly there are 'more convenient times' at BUF. The legacies fly to the same hubs with the same banks. Given that one is driving an hour to an hour and a half, that's going to eat up any incremental difference if there's a flight or two more daily from BUF to a given hub.

I get really sick of this constant uninformed no-facts dogging on ROC. And yes, I'm going to punch back every time I hear it. You have produced NO actual evidence in this post that ROC has such a significant leakage problem that people--who would much rather fly from home than drive to another city--would not fly on additional flights from ROC if they are priced right.

ROCLDFAN's predictions sound reasonable to me based on 2018's encouraging enplanement numbers. I'm really glad to hear we're getting over 2.5 million again. Any progress is welcome. DEN and DFW both sound reasonable to me with E75-sized aircraft, because they reduce the number of double-connections. Such flights could lead to some downgauging to ORD, but that would be a worthwhile price for picking up two significant additional hubs.

Jim


Correct ... i have no evidence to prove my point. Nor will you find any stats to prove I am wrong. But dont get bent of shape. If you live in Rochester .... go ask people. Out of all my friends I had in Rochester, only 1 time did I hear someone go to the ROC airport. The rest flew out of Buffalo.

Prices and frequency: Come on... you can google it. Its cheaper and more flights per day to each of the same cities ROC and BUF share.
 
DCA-ROCguy
Topic Author
Posts: 4207
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2000 5:03 am

Re: Upstate New York Thread - 2018

Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:54 am

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
Correct ... i have no evidence to prove my point. Nor will you find any stats to prove I am wrong. But dont get bent of shape. If you live in Rochester .... go ask people. Out of all my friends I had in Rochester, only 1 time did I hear someone go to the ROC airport. The rest flew out of Buffalo.
Prices and frequency: Come on... you can google it. Its cheaper and more flights per day to each of the same cities ROC and BUF share.


As I explained, "talking to people" is not evidence of a reason to assert that a market in a healthy enplanement range to get the services ROCDLFAN talked about, would not get the services. ROCDLFAN gave a number, an enplanement increase of over 100,000 from 2017. So as long as you keep making that assertion, you're engaging in what my mother many years ago called "sausage-talk." You're right, I shouldn't get bent out of shape, since the assertion isn't to be taken seriously.

I'll have to do some PDEW digging over the weekend to get us recent numbers on ROC-DEN and ROC-DFW. If anyone has BTS's link to PDEW on individual routes, I would be grateful if you can post it.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
flyrocoak
Posts: 46
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:14 pm

Re: Upstate New York Thread - 2018

Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:29 pm

Jim[/quote]

Correct ... i have no evidence to prove my point. Nor will you find any stats to prove I am wrong. But dont get bent of shape. If you live in Rochester .... go ask people. Out of all my friends I had in Rochester, only 1 time did I hear someone go to the ROC airport. The rest flew out of Buffalo.

[/quote]

And I could truthfully say the same opposing statement among my friends, family, acquaintances. The vast majority fly out of Rochester, with a small percentage who will travel to Buffalo to save a buck. I mean come on, unless there is a significant savings, no one is driving an extra hour, passing one airport for another, just for the heck of it. Especially so for business travelers. My time is money and my company wants me engaged. Even the allure of direct flights doesn't make a decisive draw.

What I find frustrating is how Rochester with it's small passenger volume (2.5m) gets the amount of UA flights that it has, and yet the other airport I fly out of frequently, OAK (12m), has none. Sure SFO is 30 miles away, but why go there when OAK has many viable options? When UA pulled out of OAK, I ended up moving off of UA after 20 years premiere exec+. I would fly them again if they go back to OAK. So yeah, if I give up United for 30 miles, driving 50 miles to BUF- not going to happen.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3979
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Upstate New York Thread - 2018

Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:49 pm

ROCDLFAN wrote:
Someone, somewhere, somehow announces DEN. Whether it be UA on an E175 (something that has been rumored for the better part of 2 years now) or F9 tries their hand by entering the market, it’s absurd that ROC is now officially the largest city in New York and one of the largest if not the largest on the east coast that doesn’t have non stop service to DEN.


WN is still expanding at DEN, and WN could add ROC-DEN nonstop service. WN also already has nonstop service out of DEN to a few markets not served by F9 such as BOS, LBB, and ECP.
 
BUFJACK10
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2016 6:09 pm

Re: Upstate New York Thread - 2018

Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:58 pm

flyrocoak wrote:
Jim


Correct ... i have no evidence to prove my point. Nor will you find any stats to prove I am wrong. But dont get bent of shape. If you live in Rochester .... go ask people. Out of all my friends I had in Rochester, only 1 time did I hear someone go to the ROC airport. The rest flew out of Buffalo.

[/quote]

And I could truthfully say the same opposing statement among my friends, family, acquaintances. The vast majority fly out of Rochester, with a small percentage who will travel to Buffalo to save a buck. I mean come on, unless there is a significant savings, no one is driving an extra hour, passing one airport for another, just for the heck of it. Especially so for business travelers. My time is money and my company wants me engaged. Even the allure of direct flights doesn't make a decisive draw.

What I find frustrating is how Rochester with it's small passenger volume (2.5m) gets the amount of UA flights that it has, and yet the other airport I fly out of frequently, OAK (12m), has none. Sure SFO is 30 miles away, but why go there when OAK has many viable options? When UA pulled out of OAK, I ended up moving off of UA after 20 years premiere exec+. I would fly them again if they go back to OAK. So yeah, if I give up United for 30 miles, driving 50 miles to BUF- not going to happen.[/quote]
B/
IMHO I agree with your comment. After flying for business for 25 years, the last thing I would want to do is drive an additional hour, especially when time and frequency is almost identical. If a flight is cancelled or nothing is available, sure then you have no choice. This is the premium segment legacies want, however in upstate carriers sell fewer premium seats than they would prefer and are used for complimentary upgrades, which is not a productive use of their asset.

Mainly what people are speaking of here is the leisure, or low yield traffic which most legacy carriers including WN consider incremental, discounted fares which otherwise may result in an empty seat. It is, however the bread and butter of the ULCC’s. That segment is more apt to make the drive. In fact, I have driven to ROC a number of times to catch a better priced flight or more convenient time (which I might add is subjective to what an individual deems convenient) for my leisure travel. Although I do believe business travel is on the upswing, the greatest contributor to airport passenger increases is the ULCC, which is great for the airport and it’s vendors.

IMO it’s not just increasing passengers to airlines, it’s what is sustainable to maintain our asset. Fortunately most upstate airports are beneficiaries to both.
AA AK AL AQ AS B6 CO DL EA FL F9 HP KN NY MO NW PA PE PI RC QX TW UA UR US WN AF AN AO CS IB OA TR VS
A300 A319 A320 BAE146 BAC111 DC8 DC9 DC10 MD80 707 717 727 737 747 757 767 777 787 L10 F27 F28 F100 ERJ CRJ SE-210 SSC B1900 ATR42 ATR72 DH8 E120 SWM
 
User avatar
iamjoeym
Posts: 24
Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2016 1:40 pm

Re: Upstate New York Thread - 2018

Sat Dec 29, 2018 4:53 pm

ROCDLFAN wrote:
I am excited about the fact that ROC will be hitting above 2.5 million for the first time I believe this decade.

One thing that I thought would be kind of fun (something that can sometimes get away from us innthis thread with the slightly unnecessary competitive nature between us and our airports) would be a predictions list for what we see happening in 2019. Note, I’m not seeing this as a wishlist but as legitimate predictions on what could happen for your station. I’ll start with ROC:

Based off of the strong bookings so far with BOS, B6 decides to get back into the Florida game with MCO or FLL in some capacity or another

AA announces E175 service to DFW

Someone, somewhere, somehow announces DEN. Whether it be UA on an E175 (something that has been rumored for the better part of 2 years now) or F9 tries their hand by entering the market, it’s absurd that ROC is now officially the largest city in New York and one of the largest if not the largest on the east coast that doesn’t have non stop service to DEN.

The growth continues, and ROC hits above 2.6 million passengers for 2019 and will be on course to hit 3 million by 2022

Let’s please not bash anyone’s predictions and consider all possibilities when posting.


I’d love to see more B6 back at ROC. It always boggles my mind that BUF, SYR and even ALB have service to FL yet we don’t. I’m excited for the launch of BOS. Hopefully we’ll get more service soon for one of the original Blue Cities.
 
Buffalomatt1027
Posts: 441
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:02 am

Re: Upstate New York Thread - 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 5:37 am

iamjoeym wrote:
ROCDLFAN wrote:
I am excited about the fact that ROC will be hitting above 2.5 million for the first time I believe this decade.

One thing that I thought would be kind of fun (something that can sometimes get away from us innthis thread with the slightly unnecessary competitive nature between us and our airports) would be a predictions list for what we see happening in 2019. Note, I’m not seeing this as a wishlist but as legitimate predictions on what could happen for your station. I’ll start with ROC:

Based off of the strong bookings so far with BOS, B6 decides to get back into the Florida game with MCO or FLL in some capacity or another

AA announces E175 service to DFW

Someone, somewhere, somehow announces DEN. Whether it be UA on an E175 (something that has been rumored for the better part of 2 years now) or F9 tries their hand by entering the market, it’s absurd that ROC is now officially the largest city in New York and one of the largest if not the largest on the east coast that doesn’t have non stop service to DEN.

The growth continues, and ROC hits above 2.6 million passengers for 2019 and will be on course to hit 3 million by 2022

Let’s please not bash anyone’s predictions and consider all possibilities when posting.


I’d love to see more B6 back at ROC. It always boggles my mind that BUF, SYR and even ALB have service to FL yet we don’t. I’m excited for the launch of BOS. Hopefully we’ll get more service soon for one of the original Blue Cities.


WN, B6, and F9 in Buffalo make millions of dollars off of the flights to Florida .... Canadians LOVE Florida. Hence why their are so many daily flights. That is also why WN has Vegas and Phoenix at BNIA. Those other 2 routes are also popular for Canadians.
 
teneriffe77
Posts: 381
Joined: Mon Jul 10, 2006 11:00 am

Re: Upstate New York Thread - 2018

Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:09 pm

I was going by SYR today and I noticed that a 762 was still parked by the Million Air FBO and I assume this is the one that had a problem last week. Does anyone know when it might get fixed?
 
User avatar
atcsundevil
Moderator
Posts: 4402
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 12:22 pm

Re: Upstate New York Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:50 am

Please continue in next year's thread.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1411875

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos