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ElroyJetson
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:01 pm

Cancelling the 777x order is never gonna happen. It fits EK perfectly and they know it.
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Bricktop
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:29 pm

Sorry all the tumescent posters, but on the list of "Things That Will Never Happen" this is pretty high up. Rendered moot because the US will not cancel Open Skies. UA and AA are lukewarm: This is a DL fight. They lost on ExIm, and this is Plan B.

Funny how STC is now back to being a hero in some eyes again, so soon after DAS. :lol:
 
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admanager
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:46 pm

jayunited wrote:
If the US were to renegotiate open skies I wonder how it would impact EK's growth plans here in the US? It is no secret that EK has its eyes set on grabbing a bigger piece of the lucrative US - European market. Every few months we have a thread speculating about which US - European market EK will venture into, there was even a thread started a few days ago asking could EK use 5th freedom rights to start MCO-LHR-MCO flights. It is very clear what EK's future plans are what we don't know are the future routes EK will utilize their 5th freedoms right on. So while people are laser focused on the impact renegotiations would have on Boeings 777x program I wonder what the impact would be on EKs plans for growth here in the US.
EK has a lot of aircraft in their fleet and they have a lot of aircraft on order all of them VLA's some of these aircraft on order will be used to replaced existing aircraft while others will be used for growth. Renegotiating open skies would put EK's US - European growth plans on ice and result in EK having a surplus of aircraft and no where to send them. EK is simply trying to protect their future plans while US3 and European carriers are trying to protect their highly lucrative US-European-US routes from the disruptive force that is EK.
No matter how you splice this someone is going to be disappointed it will either be Boeing and EK, or the US3 and major European carriers. I think it will come down to who wields more power and influence in Washington DC is it the US3 and their European counterparts or is it EK?

I have to agree that any change in open skies which negatively impacts EK will result in a need for them to reevaluate their orders.I didn't read Tim Clark's comments to say it'll all get cancelled, simply that the order will be looked at again.
As many of the previous comments have focused on the India - US market, I expect to see cities which might lose 1-stop access will go back to what they were doing before; either making 2-stops on multiple carriers or moving their business to Indian airlines who can do it 1-stop.
 
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Faro
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:05 pm

DCAfan wrote:
My impression is that TC is toying with Trump. Not sure this is a good idea as Trump is unpredictable. I presume Emirates ordered the next generation 777 because it is more optimal for its network than the A350

I sense that TC is goading Trump by saying for all intents and purposes that his button is bigger than Trump's. For Emirates sake, it better be.



And the thing with Trump is that antagonism and criticism is the surest way to get a reaction out of him...


Faro
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texl1649
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:13 pm

The UAE also depends, for their very existence, to a large degree on a US military presence in response to any Iranian threats. Pulling out of the Persian gulf entirely would also appeal to a large (and growing) part of the US Electorate.

Let Qatar, Saudi, and Emirates handle it all on their own. Would they all cancel all Boeing orders? Who knows. The game theory is interesting tho.
 
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AA777223
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:15 pm

cv990Coronado wrote:
B777LRF wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
EK burned their A350XWB bridge twice already. I think that the US3 are in a position to take over half of the EK B777X order just to get them off their backs.


EK has, what, 150 777-8 and -9 on order to replace a similar number of 77W? The US3 (actually, it's just AA and UA) has a total of, what, 40 77W operating or on order? What on earth makes you think they can replace even half of the EK order? Even if they did, that'd be a loss of 75 frames + however many LH might cancel or convert, putting the whole program in serious jeopardy.

The thing is, without EK there'll be no A380 and no 777-8/9.


Exactly, it might not be pleasant to read but without EK both the 777-9/9 and the A380 will be history. As for the US3 taking over the 77X orders, if my memory serves me correctly only, the US2 has any 77W's . What is more, these have only arrived fairly recently and many have been at heavily discounted prices. Apart from a few routes the 77W and the 77X are too big for US carriers with their multi hubs.

None the less I'm sure this is posturing but, if it comes to a fight the 77X will be the looser in a big way. I have said partly before in jest, but the 777-8/9 is really a 777ME.

The thing that is important to remember is this: If EK bails on the A380 and/or 77X, absolutely Airbus and/or Boeing will suffer a significant financial hit, however they will survive. Without those two aircraft, or at least one of them, EK will not.Those are the two biggest birds in the sky (defunct 748i, notwithstanding). EK's model depends on flying the biggest aircraft on earth (A388) to major destinations, and the second biggest (B77W today, B77X tomorrow) to secondary destinations. EK is one of the few airlines that utilizes the capability of the 77W/X provides over the similar capacity of the A35K. The A350-1000, as great of an aircraft as she may be, will not have the legs with the payload that the 77X will, and EK needs that. They fly from a hot airport to scores of destinations that are 12-15 hours away. To do so with a full load and some cargo, you need the 77X capability. Can the A380 takeover? Sure, but you're counting on filling a lot of seats with a relatively small cargo capacity.

Essentially, EK, as always likes to make boisterous statements. However, this one is cutting off their nose to spite their face. They placed a small top up order for 16 frames that will keep the A388 chugging along slowly. However, unless they are prepared to go for an all A388 fleet, except A350s that will unlikely make it beyond EMEA, with 78Js flying regional, they need the 77X (and A388) more than Boeing (or Airbus) needs EK. That is why in the staring contest between Airbus and EK on the A388, we saw EK blink first and order enough to keep the line going, until hopefully demand and/or technology will permit a NEO.
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gloom
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:30 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Cancelling the 777x order is never gonna happen. It fits EK perfectly and they know it.


Disagree here. It's all economy. If they lose more than they gain, they'll cancel.

They fly from a hot airport to scores of destinations that are 12-15 hours away. To do so with a full load and some cargo, you need the 77X capability.


Exactly the opposite - A35K is expected to be an excellent hot&high (and much better than any 777, due to lower OEW). They'd leave some bags and cargo, certainly, but not enough to be hit "hard". Probably as someone explained - slight revenue plus seats available adjustment, and also a bit less pax on max config. Just that (or that much, depending on point of view and specific route).

However, I feel it's just a few days until someone chicks off.

Cheers,
Adam
 
Arion640
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:47 pm

cschleic wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Airbus would pull out all the stops if it got to the point where Emirates would cancel the 777X. It would also give leverage for an A380neo.

I imagine Emirates would keep the 787-10 order then order majority A35K and some A359ULR like mentioned above.

Probably won't come to that though.


Airbus already has the 380 program too dependent on one customer and going all out to get EK to move from the 777 to ??? might just make them even more dependent on that one customer. Would they really want to do that?


Yes. An order for Airbus means an order Boeing won't get.
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777Mech
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Fri Feb 23, 2018 9:57 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
777Mech wrote:
Where would they even get a replacement for all of their 777s in a timely manner if they did cancel their order? They'd pay huge penalties to boeing, and then You're stuck not having a replacement to deliver as fast as you'd need, and then on top of all That, Airbus can now charge an exorbitant amount for each airplane since they are the only ones You're willing to do business with.

EK doesn't have a lot to piss in. Most of the 777X components are made outside of the US anyways more than likely.


What des it matter were Boeing buys the components? Why should the penalty to Boeing be bigger than for any other airline canceling air frames? The 777-8/9 order from Emirates is over a long delivery span. I do not see any difficulties for Airbus in providing 150 A350 from 2020 to 2030, perhaps with some added A380.
Airbus would offer a good deal. It is never a good way to do business with a customer, kicking him when you have the opportunity, but expecting him to do business with you the next decades.


It's in response to the posters saying only American jobs will be affected, which it's not the case.
However, who's to say on down the line, it's Airbus in the crosshairs of EK threatening to cancel orders? Airbus should offer the frames at list prices and no discounts. Especially if Trump calls EKs bluff? Where else is EK going to go?
 
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zeke
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:28 pm

I take it if the order for the 77X was under threat, the non order (signed commitment) for 787s would also be subject to non conversion into an order?
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MontaukMonster
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:30 pm

Will Boeing’s lobby machine have anything to say about this?
 
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neomax
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:32 pm

777Mech wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
777Mech wrote:
Where would they even get a replacement for all of their 777s in a timely manner if they did cancel their order? They'd pay huge penalties to boeing, and then You're stuck not having a replacement to deliver as fast as you'd need, and then on top of all That, Airbus can now charge an exorbitant amount for each airplane since they are the only ones You're willing to do business with.

EK doesn't have a lot to piss in. Most of the 777X components are made outside of the US anyways more than likely.


What des it matter were Boeing buys the components? Why should the penalty to Boeing be bigger than for any other airline canceling air frames? The 777-8/9 order from Emirates is over a long delivery span. I do not see any difficulties for Airbus in providing 150 A350 from 2020 to 2030, perhaps with some added A380.
Airbus would offer a good deal. It is never a good way to do business with a customer, kicking him when you have the opportunity, but expecting him to do business with you the next decades.


It's in response to the posters saying only American jobs will be affected, which it's not the case.
However, who's to say on down the line, it's Airbus in the crosshairs of EK threatening to cancel orders? Airbus should offer the frames at list prices and no discounts. Especially if Trump calls EKs bluff? Where else is EK going to go?


Boeing's biggest weakness is being an American company.

Anybody who thinks business is independent of politics in this country is drunk beyond belief. For all the shit A.net gives airlines about having gov. interference in running the airline, its nothing compared to the effect US politics have on Boeing. Look no further than the Iran order Boeing just lost, 100% resulting from the fact that Boeing is an American company. While politics have some effect on EU businesses, its a much more neutral and hands off approach in regard to actually having direct influence over how companies are run. Setting aside internal EU politics, large multinational EU companies in particular value globalism and get immense value out of being able to independently make decisions without worrying too much unlike their friends across the pond wondering what the folks in Washington think. The comparative influence of EU politics is peanuts compared to America, and ultimately the chances of Airbus having a problem due to gov. interference is laughably small, because if EK cancels their order with Airbus, its not going to be because of politics.
 
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Clipper101
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:53 pm

If I read post article between the lines I would guess it is hitting at 777X would no more fit the operation in case a domino effect of renegotiations took effect as article says:

such a move would need to be followed by similar steps taken with regard to Asian and European agreements.


my guess that is why he kept B787 out of it; so, the word ‘warned’ in the article came to be just right.
 
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thekorean
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:54 pm

Didn’t Trump admin already said they won’t touch Open Sky with UAE?
 
Ruscoe
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:31 pm

thekorean wrote:
Didn’t Trump admin already said they won’t touch Open Sky with UAE?


This may shed some light:

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/trum ... ?r=US&IR=T

Ruscoe
 
Strato2
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:58 pm

Would be fun to read the dimwit Said Ahmed's tweets if EK cancelled the 777X. :D
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:49 am

mjoelnir wrote:
Losing Emirates 777-8/9 order, would go a long way to kill the 777-8/9.

Or not.

Wit 800+ 77Ws to replace, and Airbus' slots tied with EK, one could just as easily (not to mention, just as without substantiation) argue that it actually increases the likelihood that other airlines look to Boeing for earlier delivery and similar product.


ual747den wrote:
The USA is not a single entity, Delta does not care if an order gets canceled at Boeing. The airlines are in the fight to cover than own backside

Probably the most accurate statement here thus far.


Blerg wrote:
The US airlines are uncompetitive.

Ya gotta love some of the trite platitudes repeated on this site, as if they were fact.

But I'll play along: what exactly are they "noncompetitive" at?

Making money?
Nah, they do that at higher levels than essentially any other carriers on the planet-- but ya know, that's only the sole reason that incorporated entities exist. So I guess there must be something else, even more worthwhile; so let's hear it.


Strato2 wrote:
Would be fun to read the dimwit Said Ahmed's tweets if EK cancelled the 777X. :D

If you're going to lambaste someone else's intelligence... it's probably a good idea to at least spell their name remotely correctly.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
strfyr51
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 1:07 am

EK is in NO position to dictate ANYTHING to the USA!!
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 1:11 am

strfyr51 wrote:
EK is in NO position to dictate ANYTHING to the USA!!

"To the USA" in the strictest sense... no.

But they do have a fairly influential order book with the nation's largest exporter by value, and that will make their voice well heard (though, not necessarily listened/catered to).

It's not a quality that's unique to them, but EK could definitely make their displeasure felt, that much is for sure.

That said, the presumed ability to bring down an entire order-book on a whim, that so many people here have convinced themselves of, is rather hyperbolic.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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FA9295
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 1:16 am

xwb777 wrote:
If the US government was want to renegotiate the open skies policy, they would have done it long time ago.

Exactly. I think Trump already said that he is leaving it alone as is...
 
blrsea
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:39 am

Ruscoe wrote:
thekorean wrote:
Didn’t Trump admin already said they won’t touch Open Sky with UAE?


This may shed some light:

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/trum ... ?r=US&IR=T

Ruscoe


Wasn't there reports recently that QR agreed to not use 5th freedom rights to fly from Europe to US? Shows that US is still talking to these countries behind the scenes. They may be trying to extract same concession from UAE/Dubai from EY/EK too. Hence the current warning from EK, given that EK is govt owned airline and privy to discussions on open skies.

It depends on whether US backs off from pushing EK/EY to restrict themselves to flights to US directly from ME and not from EU.
 
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AI126
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 4:39 am

While this sort of posturing might be EK defending its turf, etc., the reality is that it is nothing more than that, just posturing. Boeing's lobbying prowess and the larger needs of a strong Middle East ally far outweigh the whining of DL in this case. Hell will freeze over before the US renegotiates the open skies bilateral.
 
325i
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 5:54 am

Hi Folks, in my opinion AI126 has hit the nail on its head.
The Lobbyists will be working "flat out"' on both sides of the table.
Cheers 325i
 
RickNRoll
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 6:20 am

IndianicWorld wrote:
I don’t disagree with this course of action by EK. Playing the diplomatic and calm approach has just seen the US3 try and gain more of the headlines.

What has to be made clear is that for every action there is a reaction, and UAE have a few very strong cards in their deck to play if the US3 continue to play this game. It will effect far more than just the airlines, but if a decision to walk away from the 77X orders was taken it could be a big dent to jobs in the US.

The tiring rhetoric from the US3 needs to stop and they should just focus on their own businesses. They really only have themselves to blame in many cases for their lack of a competitive position that has lead to this endless whinging and PR spin.


Smart move by EK. Make Boeing do the hard work for them.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 6:39 am

Not too much to see here. To use a US sports metaphor, this is a brushback pitch from EK to Trump.

EK can see that Trump has protectionist inclinations and is susceptible to following the last thing he heard. They want to make sure that before Trump tries to "help American business" by engaging in protectionist actions on behalf of US airlines, he understands that there is a very big US business that stands to lose too. Muilenberg now has some ammo to go along with his chummy relationship with Trump.

EK canceling their 777X order would be wildly destructive for everyone. Of course it would be a staggering blow the the 777X program. But it would badly hurt EK too. They are the single airline in the world that is most likely to be able to take advantage of the 777X's extra revenue potential vs. the A350. The 777X is the one size of airplane that they will need no matter what, regardless of whether their growth stalls or explodes. The 778 was literally designed around their current and planned ULH network. Airbus would have a lot of trouble ramping up A350 production enough to meet the currently planned EK 777X delivery schedule, so a switch to A350 would likely mean renewal of some 77W leases without much leverage on terms.

Everyone (except maybe Trump) understands all of this. There will be no Open Skies renegotiation and no 777X cancellation. If Trump wants to help the US3, it will happen some other way. (Although with Mr. Mulvaney in the budget director's seat, it sure won't be by funding airport expansions.)
 
parapente
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 6:47 am

The Businessinsider article tells you everything you need to know as to why SirT spoke out and why open skies will continue.Trump does not want an isolated US.Why would he.
As stated it's not as if US3 are bleeding.Just the opposite.I think in US language US3 will be told to 'suck it up' by those in charge of the country.
 
Blerg
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 7:23 am

Blerg wrote:
The US airlines are uncompetitive.

Ya gotta love some of the trite platitudes repeated on this site, as if they were fact.

But I'll play along: what exactly are they "noncompetitive" at?

Making money?
Nah, they do that at higher levels than essentially any other carriers on the planet-- but ya know, that's only the sole reason that incorporated entities exist. So I guess there must be something else, even more worthwhile; so let's hear it.


------

They are swimming in cash because most of it comes from their domestic and regional operations where they face little to no competition. On the international front it's a whole different matter. Have you ever compared US crew with let's say Lufthansa's or Qatar's? I was sitting at FRA the other day and United's crew was passing through. They looked sloppy, their uniforms were bland and boring and half of the crew was way too old to be flying on such long international flights. Their onboard product is also mediocre at best.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:18 am

Blerg wrote:
They are swimming in cash because most of it comes from their domestic and regional operations where they face little to no competition.

Huh? What high-revenue domestic routes "face little to no competition," save for very short regional routes to tiny airfields?

List some.



Blerg wrote:
Have you ever compared US crew with let's say Lufthansa's or Qatar's? I was sitting at FRA the other day and United's crew was passing through. They looked sloppy, their uniforms were bland and boring and half of the crew was way too old to be flying on such long international flights. Their onboard product is also mediocre at best.

K, now to understand why that isn't an actual nor cogent argument against competitiveness, click HERE and then come back and tell us what you learned. :roll:
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
mjoelnir
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 11:00 am

Clipper101 wrote:
If I read post article between the lines I would guess it is hitting at 777X would no more fit the operation in case a domino effect of renegotiations took effect as article says:

such a move would need to be followed by similar steps taken with regard to Asian and European agreements.


my guess that is why he kept B787 out of it; so, the word ‘warned’ in the article came to be just right.


The 787 are still a MoU, no need to cancel, just do not firm.
 
fsabo
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 11:15 am

mjoelnir wrote:
Clipper101 wrote:
If I read post article between the lines I would guess it is hitting at 777X would no more fit the operation in case a domino effect of renegotiations took effect as article says:

such a move would need to be followed by similar steps taken with regard to Asian and European agreements.


my guess that is why he kept B787 out of it; so, the word ‘warned’ in the article came to be just right.


The 787 are still a MoU, no need to cancel, just do not firm.


I think EK will take the 781 no matter what. They chose it vs the A350 because the A350 is too capable for that role.

Some people here argue that the A351 cannot work in the role of the 779. I think that argument is wrong. Field performance has been a pleasant surprise. In true airbus style its capability will only grow with time. I simply don't buy this "emirates needs the 777x".
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 11:23 am

fsabo wrote:
In true airbus style its capability will only grow with time.

...uh, that's sorta what ALL manufacturers do with their aircraft products over time.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
WIederling
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 11:42 am

cv990Coronado wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Why should the penalty to Boeing be bigger than for any other airline canceling air frames?
Because the plane was launched on the back of this very order. If Boeing was smart, this order would have a strict cancellation policy.


If Boeing were smart which they usually are but wasn't this more or less at the height of the 787 troubles? The A350 was becoming a threat, maybe they were less smart than usual and perhaps a little desperate?


AFAICS the 777X was launched on super comfy conditions, low up front cost for underwriting and super final pricing.
"strict cancellation policy" ? completely out of reach for Boeing.

IMHO Airbus should maybe go for some "non swap" language in their contracts.
History shows that Boeing has no qualms in "turning" existing airline contracts.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Blerg
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:53 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Blerg wrote:
They are swimming in cash because most of it comes from their domestic and regional operations where they face little to no competition.

Huh? What high-revenue domestic routes "face little to no competition," save for very short regional routes to tiny airfields?

List some.



Blerg wrote:
Have you ever compared US crew with let's say Lufthansa's or Qatar's? I was sitting at FRA the other day and United's crew was passing through. They looked sloppy, their uniforms were bland and boring and half of the crew was way too old to be flying on such long international flights. Their onboard product is also mediocre at best.

K, now to understand why that isn't an actual nor cogent argument against competitiveness, click HERE and then come back and tell us what you learned. :roll:


Generally the US domestic market has become less competitive over the years with many mergers, acquisitions and bankruptcies. Several other posters have educated you on this on another topic. Maybe you should re-read those posts once again.
Maybe it's a subjective feeling but it seems that I am not the only one otherwise customers wouldn't be switching to airlines like Turkish Airlines, Qatar or Emirates. Everyone who flies internationally knows how different products are, both soft and hard.
 
JustSomeDood
Posts: 381
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 4:09 pm

fsabo wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Clipper101 wrote:
If I read post article between the lines I would guess it is hitting at 777X would no more fit the operation in case a domino effect of renegotiations took effect as article says:



my guess that is why he kept B787 out of it; so, the word ‘warned’ in the article came to be just right.


The 787 are still a MoU, no need to cancel, just do not firm.


I think EK will take the 781 no matter what. They chose it vs the A350 because the A350 is too capable for that role.

Some people here argue that the A351 cannot work in the role of the 779. I think that argument is wrong. Field performance has been a pleasant surprise. In true airbus style its capability will only grow with time. I simply don't buy this "emirates needs the 777x".


If one wants 779 capacity, a 351 really isn't gonna be an adequate alternative. QR is seating ~30 seats less in their 351 than their 77W configuration, doubtless the larger 779 will only increase that gap in seats and floorspace.
 
Galwayman
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 5:32 pm

Interestingly Trump never blocked Norwegian , it was Obama that was protectionist in that context

If Trump didn’t block Norwegian, it’s unlikely he’ll be kow towing to the US3
 
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lightsaber
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 5:56 pm

gloom wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Cancelling the 777x order is never gonna happen. It fits EK perfectly and they know it.


Disagree here. It's all economy. If they lose more than they gain, they'll cancel.



I have to agree. If the bilateral is threatened, EK no longer needs so many 777X.
To others:
Everyone should remember the most common diplomatic strategy is 'tit for tat.' The USA needs Dubai for goods distribution/UPS, the other parts of the UAE, not so much other than military bases. This is just a reminder that if things go south...

Also recall there are only two unilateral actions on a bilateral:
1. Revert to prior bilateral (it is possible to roll back several generations)
2. Completely cancel bilateral trade.

The UAE is simply putting the US on notice that if they roll back the bilateral there are consequences. Does the UAE want to loose the UPS hub? :no: But if EK looses there rights, UPS also looses their regional hub. Now, UPS would recover, but they want to hub in the regional distribution center (Dubai) and not in some podunk city that lacks the shipping volume, warehousing, pharmaceutical industry, regional flow distribution (almost a regional monopoly on cold goods transit), fish (its all about the fish... but once you had the cold goods transit facilities, it is very tough to start up competition, you need cold warehouses, trucks, and most importantly processes that many airlines are poor at).

They fly from a hot airport to scores of destinations that are 12-15 hours away. To do so with a full load and some cargo, you need the 77X capability.


Exactly the opposite - A35K is expected to be an excellent hot&high (and much better than any 777, due to lower OEW). They'd leave some bags and cargo, certainly, but not enough to be hit "hard". Probably as someone explained - slight revenue plus seats available adjustment, and also a bit less pax on max config. Just that (or that much, depending on point of view and specific route).

However, I feel it's just a few days until someone chicks off.

Cheers,
Adam[/quote]

Where are you getting the 777X empty weight from by the way? I found estimates, but everything I've found assumes a really poorly done CFRP wing with no GFRP in the weight assumptions:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/407122 ... am-matters

If Boeing cannot do better, they should have hired my employer to design their wings. I would expect the 779 empty weight to come in multiple tons lower than the above analysis of 184.6 tons.
Boeing also does a good job of removing tons of weight after EIS (e.g., in particular the 789) and I expect them to still do so.


I'll rephrase, EK has many markets where the 777X is the best choice. I'm not sure where you're stating the 777X won't have great hot/high.

A350-1000 MTOW 311T with 97k of thrust (.294lbf/ton), wing loading 0.676Tons/m^2, 0.513 tons/m^2 at MLW
779 MTOW of 351.5T with 105k of (0.299 lbf/ton), wing loading 0.753Tons/m^2 at takeoff, 0.57 tons/m^2 at MLW
778 MTOW same engines, MTOW, MLW, and wing
So the A350-1000 has a wing loading advantage vs. the 777X, but the 777X has a tiny thrust to weight advantage. The takeoff distance will be a function of which has better lift augmentation devices.
Please recall that the takeoff performance of a wing goes as the square root of the aspect ratio or AR^0.5 (higher is better).
777X AR=11.04
A350-1000 AR=9.12
Or sqrt (11.04/9.12)=1.1 or the 777X has a 10% lift advantage at takeoff relative to the wingloading. So if we assume equal lift devices, the 'back of the envelope' of takeoff performance would be:
777X/A350-1000=(.299/.753*11.04^0.5)/(.294/.676*9.12^0.5)=1.004

Or the 777X should take a negligible amount less runway than the A350-1000. Sorry, but where are you getting the a350-1000 should have better hot/high performance? All indications are the GE9X will have more reserve thrust too. The 777X wing is also designed from scratch for the 777X MTOW, so should have more lifting device travel and that should help takeoff distance.

The other thing that matters is relative center of gravity, but I assume both will be aggressive.


The A359 requires a good 8,500 ft at STD day conditions (rarely seen at Dubai). I couldn't find A350-1000 (should require more runway) or 777X runway lengths, but the 777X thrust was increased by 7k to accommodate EK's needs. Since EK is well know to compare aircraft at a takeoff of 114F/45.56C and a 600ft barometric altitude (hot day with slightly low pressure of 14.46 psia or 99381Pa) with some crosswind (sorry, I'm forgetting what they specify), they'll be receiving aircraft that meet their needs.

The true value of the 779 will be as a Combi to/from Asia and Europe.

Boeing has yet to put takeoff information in the 779 document:
http://www.boeing.com/resources/boeingd ... Prelim.pdf

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
PacificBeach
Posts: 81
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 6:01 pm

lightsaber wrote:
A350-1000 MTOW 311T with 97k of thrust (.294lbf/ton), wing loading 0.676Tons/m^2, 0.513 tons/m^2 at MLW
779 MTOW of 351.5T with 105k of (0.299 lbf/ton), wing loading 0.753Tons/m^2 at takeoff, 0.57 tons/m^2 at MLW
778 MTOW same engines, MTOW, MLW, and wing
Lightsaber


The math does not seem right:
97K / 311T = 0.312 lbf/kg
105K / 351T = 0.299lbf/kg

If A350 goes to 316T then 0.307lbf/kg.
 
fsabo
Posts: 197
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 6:34 pm

JustSomeDood wrote:
fsabo wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

The 787 are still a MoU, no need to cancel, just do not firm.


I think EK will take the 781 no matter what. They chose it vs the A350 because the A350 is too capable for that role.

Some people here argue that the A351 cannot work in the role of the 779. I think that argument is wrong. Field performance has been a pleasant surprise. In true airbus style its capability will only grow with time. I simply don't buy this "emirates needs the 777x".


If one wants 779 capacity, a 351 really isn't gonna be an adequate alternative. QR is seating ~30 seats less in their 351 than their 77W configuration, doubtless the larger 779 will only increase that gap in seats and floorspace.


If the 779 is the biggest aircraft in your fleet then perhaps, but if you also have A380s then that is not so much an issue if your biggest twin is the 779 or the A351. If RR is willing to do a neo for the A380 that also is a benefit for EK.

If openskies is repealed then the whole equation changes anyway.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 7:46 pm

Blerg wrote:
Generally the US domestic market has become less competitive over the years

Actually, no. That's just a function of you automatically conflating number of separate airlines with depth of competition.

A simplistic, but deeply flawed, assessment because you're ignoring everything from increased market penetration for the remainders, the rise of LoCos and ULCCs, the comparative rise in 1stop and nonstop options relative to the number of markets sold, and (most importantly) while more people continue to fly, average and median prices continue to decrease decade over decade--- which (contrary to some of the ridiculous notions proffered among AvGeeks) is what the overall market demands above all else.



Blerg wrote:
Several other posters have educated you on this on another topic. Maybe you should re-read those posts once again.

Then by all means, link some of those and let's you and I go through them. Go on. This should be funny!



Blerg wrote:
Maybe it's a subjective feeling


Image




WIederling wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
K, now to understand why that isn't an actual nor cogent argument against competitiveness, click HERE and then come back and tell us what you learned. :roll:

So you are the honorable defender of the "Graal of Objectvity"
and everybody else is just walloping in his or her subjectivity, right

If "you" are to the point of believing that crews' looks are the measure of competitive capability for an airline, then you're beyond the reach of even basic rationality. Not much more to say.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Planesmart
Posts: 2891
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 3:18 am

Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 8:27 pm

First important part of this equation - Boeing and the President have kept quiet, and STC made the statement. And was OK being quoted.

Second, rarely in business are the matters stated, actually THE topics under discussion/negotiation.

More likely, EK wants to extend/defer 777X deliveries, while retaining the launch pricing, packaged with even sharper 787 pricing. And perhaps even seeking more open, open skies, with a US acquisition in mind. And Boeing Capital financing at super fine margins.

Perfect timing for EK. A380 order qualified, and no decision on engines. Possible early indication of 777X performance issues on early deliveries? And 787 and engines aren't firm either.

Could also force GE to make a serious EA bid on the A380, with PiP. If EA not on next A380's, may as well select RR for 787, and if we are going to do that, may as well go A350/RR

How firm are the latest FZ 737 orders?

So much to play for / negotiate, and all inter-related.

You think AAB is a 'tough' customer?
 
Blerg
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Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:15 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Generally the US domestic market has become less competitive over the years

Actually, no. That's just a function of you automatically conflating number of separate airlines with depth of competition.

A simplistic, but deeply flawed, assessment because you're ignoring everything from increased market penetration for the remainders, the rise of LoCos and ULCCs, the comparative rise in 1stop and nonstop options relative to the number of markets sold, and (most importantly) while more people continue to fly, average and median prices continue to decrease decade over decade--- which (contrary to some of the ridiculous notions proffered among AvGeeks) is what the overall market demands above all else.



Blerg wrote:
Several other posters have educated you on this on another topic. Maybe you should re-read those posts once again.

Then by all means, link some of those and let's you and I go through them. Go on. This should be funny!



Blerg wrote:
Maybe it's a subjective feeling



Average domestic airfare has gone down in 2015 and 2016 but it's still quite high when compared to what it was before all the mergers. For example, if we compare today's price to what it was in 1995 (prices in terms of current Dollars) it's 21% higher. The last time average domestic fares were below $300 was back in 1998. After that it only kept on climbing. Now, if I remember correctly only one airline was founded after 2000 that actually made it big and it was JetBlue. All others were either bankrupted or bought by other carriers.

By Q2 2017 the average price climbed to $354. The year before that it was $349, lowest value since 2010.

Furthermore, if you look at the list of most expensive airfares by city, right after Guam comes a long list of regional US airports where the average ticket prices reaches well above $600. Here are some examples:

Jackson WY is $624, Cheyenne $603, Bakersfield (CA) $568, Huntsville (AL) $565, Mobile (AL) $525, Fayetteville (AR) $508, Lincoln (NE) $495, Madison (WI) $488, St. George (UT) $452, Sioux City (IA) $451, Knoxville (TN) $445, Little Rock (AR) $434...

Most expensive in 2016 was Wainwright (AK) with $1.152
Lowest was Hagerstown (MD) with $79.

It seems that most of these smaller markets are lucky if they get a link to one of the large hubs. That's why airlines like Silver might make it as they are linking these smaller, regional airports.
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 12496
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:31 pm

Blerg wrote:
For example, if we compare today's price to what it was in 1995 (prices in terms of current Dollars) it's 21% higher.

Which is of course due to the intellectual dishonesty of comparing dollar prices without adjusting for inflation. Come on dude, at least try. :roll:

The average fare in 1995 adjusted for inflation was $468, compared to the average of 2015 at $388... an $80 lower price.

Please explain to me how you believe that decreased competition accounts for a 17% decrease in the price, for the same commodity 20yrs later; because this I've got to hear.

I mean, It's not like you need to take my word for it; the trend is consistent across the decades. Here, straight from the BTS:
https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/airfares/p ... Fares.html
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Slug71
Posts: 1385
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sat Feb 24, 2018 11:47 pm

A good way for EK to cut the order and convert some of it to 787s. I think EY and QR may do the same.
 
LAXLHR
Posts: 447
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:07 am

Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sun Feb 25, 2018 2:03 am

IndianicWorld wrote:
I don’t disagree with this course of action by EK. Playing the diplomatic and calm approach has just seen the US3 try and gain more of the headlines.

What has to be made clear is that for every action there is a reaction, and UAE have a few very strong cards in their deck to play if the US3 continue to play this game. It will effect far more than just the airlines, but if a decision to walk away from the 77X orders was taken it could be a big dent to jobs in the US.

The tiring rhetoric from the US3 needs to stop and they should just focus on their own businesses. They really only have themselves to blame in many cases for their lack of a competitive position that has lead to this endless whinging and PR spin.


I AGREE! 1000%!!!
BA IB ET JM EA GK PA VS AA SN HP CO W7 WN NW DL UA AC US LH LX OS JL QF QR WY MH CX U2 EK 9W UK TP VY VN LO OK OZ UL SQ LA

707 727 L10 732-NG 741 742 743 744 752 753 762 763 772 773 787 DC8 DC9 DC10 M80 M11 100 AB3 310 318 319 320 321 332 333 342 343 380
 
strfyr51
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:47 am

will Bowing go bust without the EK order? NO! EK needs to fly to the USA and if they don't?? Then stay home!!
Boeing will do OK! what do they expect Boeing to make US Policy?? YGBSM!!
 
747megatop
Posts: 1712
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Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sun Feb 25, 2018 7:56 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
What would EK do to replace the 777 and 777X? The A350s are imperfect substitutes... Although on the other hand Emirates is apparently feeling the brunt of excess capacity.

They would still go with the imperfect substitute of A350. They could of course go with whatever COMAC is manufacturing; but that would mean pissing off EU which would mean shutting off a significant chunk of their transfer traffic; so they would pretty much be left with a very small chunk of passengers to fly around.
 
emiratesdriver
Posts: 267
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2016 9:04 pm

Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sun Feb 25, 2018 8:20 am

strfyr51 wrote:
will Bowing go bust without the EK order? NO! EK needs to fly to the USA and if they don't?? Then stay home!!
Boeing will do OK! what do they expect Boeing to make US Policy?? YGBSM!!


I’m no EK apologist, but to be fair to little Timmy he’s merely using the kind of language we’ve come to expect out of the US carriers press office. There is hypocrisy on both sides for certain, the Americans however are typically economical with their analysis and rather insular with their perspective e.g. we make the rules and now want to change them as they don’t suit.
It’s all very reminiscent of the 80s and 90s when the big American carriers played a game of dirty tricks against UK and European carriers on the TALT routes or when BA under Lord King did the same to VS.
Alls fair in war and business, little Timmy is merely pushing back with a few home truths.
 
SelseyBill
Posts: 709
Joined: Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:38 pm

Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sun Feb 25, 2018 8:34 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
Last but not least, Tim Clark added it may reconsider its 777X order if the Open Skies agreement gets altered:
The Emirates boss also warned that should the Open Skies pact with the US be scrapped or renegotiated, the carrier may be forced to reconsider its orders with Boeing (BOE, Chicago O'Hare) for thirty-five B777-8s and 115 B777-9s.
That's a pretty substantial threat to say the least. What would EK do to replace the 777 and 777X? The A350s are imperfect substitutes... Although on the other hand Emirates is apparently feeling the brunt of excess capacity


.......I'd imagine STC has seen Airbus' advanced plans for the A350-2000. In the unlikely event EK cancels its order for 777X, Airbus could and would fill the void. I could even see them setting up a second A350 assembly line; who know, in Alabama maybe ?
 
SelseyBill
Posts: 709
Joined: Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:38 pm

Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sun Feb 25, 2018 8:44 am

emiratesdriver wrote:
........or when BA under Lord King did the same to VS. All's fair in war and business....


Revisionist history......

As I recall it was Sir Beard that did all the threatening......
 
emiratesdriver
Posts: 267
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2016 9:04 pm

Re: EK warns the US against Open Skies renegotiation, threatens 777X order

Sun Feb 25, 2018 9:04 am

SelseyBill wrote:
emiratesdriver wrote:
........or when BA under Lord King did the same to VS. All's fair in war and business....


Revisionist history......

As I recall it was Sir Beard that did all the threatening......


Then you recalled wrong SelseyBill, BA settled and effectively admitted liability and Virgin were awarded damages and costs, how am I so sure? I received some of the settlement in my pay cheque as a former VS employee.

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