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enilria
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OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 2:27 pm

FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3E BRL-STL OCT 1.1>1.9 NOV 1.1>1.9

4M MIA-EZE JUN 1.6>1.5

AA CLT-BNA MAY 7>8
AA CLT-GNV MAY 4>5
AA DFW-AMA MAY 6>7
AA DFW-GPT MAY 2.0>3
AA DFW-LCH MAY 2>3
AA DFW-TXK MAY 3>4
AA PHL-CVG MAY 5>6
AA PHL-DAY MAY 4>5
AA PHL-SJU JUL 3>2 AUG 3>1.8
AA PHL-YQB JUN 0.8>1.6 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2

AM ORD-GDL JUL 2>1.8

AS FLL-SFO MAY 1.2>0.8
AS IAD-SFO APR 0.4>0.2
AS LAX-LTO SEP 0.4>0.3
AS LAX-MCO JUN 1.0>0.6
*AS LAX-MEX MAY 1.6>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2
AS LAX-SFO JUN 11>12 JUL 11>12 AUG 11>12 SEP 11>12 OCT 11>12 NOV 10>11
AS SEA-HNL SEP 2>3 OCT 2>3
*AS SFO-MEX MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0

AV DFW-SAL APR 0.6>0.7 MAY 0.5>0.7 JUN 0.7>0.9 JUL 0.7>0.9 AUG 0.7>0.8
AY ORD-HEL NOV 0>0.3
Previously ended after Summer
*AY SFO-HEL OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0>0.3

B0 EWR-CDG APR 1.9>1.8

B6 keeps adding SJU capacity back
B6 BOS-SJU JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 1.8>1.9
B6 FLL-SJU APR 4>5
B6 JFK-SJU JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
B6 MCO-SJU APR 5>6

CM FLL-PTY AUG 0.6>0.7 SEP 0.5>0.7 OCT 0.6>0.7 NOV 0.6>0.7

DI MCO-LGW APR 0.4>0.5 MAY 0.5>0.6 JUN 0.4>0.6 JUL 0.4>0.5 AUG 0.4>0.5 SEP 0.4>0.6

DL ATL-BHM OCT 10>11
DL ATL-BTR JUL 8>7
DL ATL-EWR OCT 11>12
DL ATL-GPT JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
DL ATL-PHF JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
DL ATL-SFO OCT 7>8
DL ATL-SHV OCT 7>6
DL ATL-YUL OCT 4>5
*DL ATL-YVR NOV 0.9>0
DL BIS-MSP JUL 6>7
DL BOS-ATL OCT 11>12
DL DAY-MSP JUL 3>4
DL DTW-CUN SEP 0.5>0.6
DL DTW-PVD AUG 3>4
DL DTW-TVC JUL 6>5
DL ICT-MSP JUL 3>4
DL JFK-PWM OCT 1.0>2
DL JFK-SFO JUL 7>8 OCT 7>8
DL LAX-JFK SEP 9>8
DL LAX-RDU OCT 1.1>2
DL LAX-SFO JUL 9>8 AUG 9>8 SEP 9>8 NOV 10>9
DL LAX-SJC OCT 8>6
DL LGA-BOS MAY 13>14 JUN 13>14 JUL 13>12
DL LGA-GSP AUG 0.9>1.6 SEP 0.8>1.7 OCT 0.9>1.7
DL LGA-JAX OCT 3>4
DL LGA-MCO OCT 6>5
DL SEA-JFK OCT 5>4
DL SEA-YVR MAY 5>7
DL SLC-ATL OCT 8>9
DL SLC-CPR NOV 1.1>2
DL SLC-MSP OCT 6>5
DL SLC-OAK OCT 4>3
DL SLC-TUS OCT 2>3
DL SLC-YVR OCT 1.9>1.0

DY LAX-FCO JUL 0.4>0.5 AUG 0.5>0.6 SEP 0.4>0.6 OCT 0.5>0.6

EI MCO-DUB SEP 0.4>0.6 OCT 0.4>0.5

FI TPA-KEF OCT 0.3>0.5 NOV 0.3>0.6

HA HNL-LIH JUN 22>21 JUL 21>20 AUG 21>20
HA HNL-SFO JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2.0>1.0
Service is cancelled, was seasonal before
*HA KOA-OAK JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
Service start deferred
*HA LIH-OAK MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0.5

JJ LAS-GRU SEP 0>0.4

K2 BET-GNU APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7
K2 BET-KWN APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7
K2 GNU-PTU APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7 OCT 0>1.7 NOV 0>1.7

LA MIA-SCL JUL 1.9>3

LY JFK-TLV MAY 1.8>1.7

P1 LUK-PDK APR 1.4>0.7 MAY 1.4>0.7

PY MIA-AUA APR 0.4>0.3 MAY 0.4>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.5>0.3

Q6 LAX-GUA APR 0.2>0.3 MAY 0.1>0.3 JUN 0.1>0.3 JUL 0.2>0.3 AUG 0.1>0.3 SEP 0.2>0.3 OCT 0.1>0.3
Q6 LAX-SAL APR 0.3>0.4 MAY 0.3>0.4 JUN 0.3>0.4 JUL 0.3>0.4 AUG 0.3>0.5 SEP 0.3>0.4 OCT 0.3>0.4

SV IAD-RUH NOV 0.1>0.3
SV JFK-JED NOV 0.2>0.6
SV LAX-JED NOV 0>0.4

UA EWR-PHL APR 0.1>0.0
UA IAD-MSP JUL 3>2
UA IAD-PIT APR 3>4
UA IAH-ATL APR 7>6 MAY 7>6
UA IAH-BNA MAY 6>5
UA IAH-BRO APR 5>4
UA IAH-BTR APR 7>6
UA IAH-CLT MAY 5>4
UA IAH-DTW APR 5>4
UA IAH-GDL APR 4>3
UA IAH-GRK APR 3>1.6
UA IAH-GSP APR 1.8>1.0
UA IAH-LBB APR 4>3
UA IAH-MEM APR 5>4 MAY 5>4
UA IAH-PIT APR 5>4 MAY 6>5
UA IAH-SAV APR 2>1.0
UA IAH-SLC MAY 5>4
UA IAH-TUL APR 7>6
UA ORD-ABQ APR 1.7>0.9
UA ORD-GSO APR 4>3

VC AUS-OKC APR 0.5>0.3

WAA ORT-WVB APR 2>0 MAY 2>0 JUN 2>0 JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0

WW CVG-KEF JUN 0.6>0.7 JUL 0.6>0.7 AUG 0.5>0.7
 
tphuang
Posts: 2904
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 2:58 pm

Thanks again enilria!
enilria wrote:
AA PHL-SJU JUL 3>2 AUG 3>1.8
B6 keeps adding SJU capacity back
B6 BOS-SJU JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 1.8>1.9
B6 FLL-SJU APR 4>5
B6 JFK-SJU JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
B6 MCO-SJU APR 5>6

I wonder if SJU is using hurricane Maria to really take over the SJU markets. At the expense of AA in many cases it seems like.

AS FLL-SFO MAY 1.2>0.8
*AS LAX-MEX MAY 1.6>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2
*AS SFO-MEX MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0


Not sure if this is new, but FLL-LAX is down to 1 daily from late May to late August. interesting move to consolidate LAX-MEX and drop SFO-MEX.
HA HNL-SFO JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2.0>1.0
Service is cancelled, was seasonal before
*HA KOA-OAK JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
Service start deferred
*HA LIH-OAK MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0.5

I assume this is due to the A321NEO delivery issues.
 
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enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 9397
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 3:05 pm

tphuang wrote:
Thanks again enilria!

:)
tphuang wrote:
AA PHL-SJU JUL 3>2 AUG 3>1.8
B6 keeps adding SJU capacity back
B6 BOS-SJU JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 1.8>1.9
B6 FLL-SJU APR 4>5
B6 JFK-SJU JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
B6 MCO-SJU APR 5>6

I wonder if SJU is using hurricane Maria to really take over the SJU markets. At the expense of AA in many cases it seems like.

Yes, B6 I think is loss-leading back into a dominant position.
tphuang wrote:
AS FLL-SFO MAY 1.2>0.8
*AS LAX-MEX MAY 1.6>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2
*AS SFO-MEX MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0
Not sure if this is new, but FLL-LAX is down to 1 daily from late May to late August. interesting move to consolidate LAX-MEX and drop SFO-MEX.

It's a little odd since AS is much stronger in SFO than LAX.
tphuang wrote:
HA HNL-SFO JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2.0>1.0
Service is cancelled, was seasonal before
*HA KOA-OAK JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
Service start deferred
*HA LIH-OAK MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0.5

I assume this is due to the A321NEO delivery issues.[/quote]
Good theory
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 1993
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 3:06 pm

Can't believe that after wanting the MEX slots so badly that AS is dropping all but 1x LAX-MEX. I can understand reductions on poorly performing ex-VX routes but this was something AS had pursued aggressively.
 
Sightseer
Posts: 921
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:04 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 3:21 pm

Thanks Enilria!

enilria wrote:
AS LAX-MEX MAY 1.6>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2
AS SFO-MEX MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0

Wonder what changed between last week and this week that caused them to restore LAX but drop SFO.

enilria wrote:
DL ATL-YVR NOV 0.9>0

To my knowledge this route has always been summer seasonal the last few years. In my opinion, the bigger surprise would've been if DL had kept it. Of course, the fact that it was on sale indicates maybe they were going to.
 
RJNUT
Posts: 1765
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 1999 1:58 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 3:25 pm

it just seems to me week over week AS continually seems to shrink .Maybe its just adjustments post merger, but the news hasn't seemed all that great of late?!
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 250
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:10 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 3:55 pm

RJNUT wrote:
it just seems to me week over week AS continually seems to shrink .Maybe its just adjustments post merger, but the news hasn't seemed all that great of late?!

This week's report shows AS growing slightly. Looking at Septmeber the SFO -MEX flight moves to LAX, LAX-SFO and SEA-HNL are up one daily, and the only reduction is approximately one less flight per week on LAX-LTO.
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 250
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:10 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 3:56 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
Can't believe that after wanting the MEX slots so badly that AS is dropping all but 1x LAX-MEX. I can understand reductions on poorly performing ex-VX routes but this was something AS had pursued aggressively.

Per this report AS is flying 2X LAX-MEX
 
32andBelow
Posts: 3961
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 4:06 pm

they prolly just have an SFO/LAX flight hit the MEX flight perfect. Might even be the same aircraft.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2904
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 4:20 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
Can't believe that after wanting the MEX slots so badly that AS is dropping all but 1x LAX-MEX. I can understand reductions on poorly performing ex-VX routes but this was something AS had pursued aggressively.


I'm not sure if this is related, but I just got a membership email from AS saying Mexico city is waiting for me. I rarely get it about any destination.

they prolly just have an SFO/LAX flight hit the MEX flight perfect. Might even be the same aircraft.

It's definitely the same aircraft. One was apparently flying SAN and LAX and the other SFO and LAX. The fact that they made a switch from LAX to SFO indicates to me that LAX and SFO have similar performance and they made the decision to keep 2 at LAX to be more competitive in the large LAX-MEX market. I think it's better strategy to concentrate on one route vs one daily on several routes and hope one works. But if the MEX cancellations are interchangeable, then that means the entire MEX flying has been performing subpar. Won't be surprised if LAX-MEX gets canceled too if summer flying doesn't yield good results.
 
klm617
Posts: 4339
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 4:32 pm

Sightseer wrote:
Thanks Enilria!

enilria wrote:
AS LAX-MEX MAY 1.6>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2
AS SFO-MEX MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0

Wonder what changed between last week and this week that caused them to restore LAX but drop SFO.

enilria wrote:
DL ATL-YVR NOV 0.9>0

To my knowledge this route has always been summer seasonal the last few years. In my opinion, the bigger surprise would've been if DL had kept it. Of course, the fact that it was on sale indicates maybe they were going to.



Looks like they are going to flow most of their Vancouver traffic over SEA now. They have added 2 rotations there now.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 4961
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 4:33 pm

Thank you, Enilria! These OAG updates are very useful.
 
ericm2031
Posts: 1043
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:46 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 4:36 pm

tphuang wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
Can't believe that after wanting the MEX slots so badly that AS is dropping all but 1x LAX-MEX. I can understand reductions on poorly performing ex-VX routes but this was something AS had pursued aggressively.


I'm not sure if this is related, but I just got a membership email from AS saying Mexico city is waiting for me. I rarely get it about any destination.

they prolly just have an SFO/LAX flight hit the MEX flight perfect. Might even be the same aircraft.

It's definitely the same aircraft. One was apparently flying SAN and LAX and the other SFO and LAX. The fact that they made a switch from LAX to SFO indicates to me that LAX and SFO have similar performance and they made the decision to keep 2 at LAX to be more competitive in the large LAX-MEX market. I think it's better strategy to concentrate on one route vs one daily on several routes and hope one works. But if the MEX cancellations are interchangeable, then that means the entire MEX flying has been performing subpar. Won't be surprised if LAX-MEX gets canceled too if summer flying doesn't yield good results.


I though SAN was on OO metal
 
BAINY3
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:42 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 4:47 pm

tphuang wrote:
I wonder if SJU is using hurricane Maria to really take over the SJU markets. At the expense of AA in many cases it seems like.


I assume you meant to say "B6" instead of "SJU" the first time.

Anyway, this is nothing new. B6 has been taking over from AA at SJU for years.
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 189
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 4:47 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
Can't believe that after wanting the MEX slots so badly that AS is dropping all but 1x LAX-MEX. I can understand reductions on poorly performing ex-VX routes but this was something AS had pursued aggressively.


Better to fight for it and walk away if it doesn't work out than never try in the first place, I suppose. It was something similar with HAV frequencies.
 
777Mech
Posts: 737
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:54 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 4:50 pm

As always thanks Enilria for compiling this every week!

As for the UA cuts, I thought they were in growth mode per their earnings call. What happened?
 
travaz
Posts: 833
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 1:03 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 5:01 pm

tphuang wrote:
Thanks again enilria!

HA HNL-SFO JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2.0>1.0
Service is cancelled, was seasonal before
*HA KOA-OAK JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
Service start deferred
*HA LIH-OAK MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0.5

I assume this is due to the A321NEO delivery issues.



There is a thread about HA and the 321 issue
viewtopic.php?p=20199445#p20199445
 
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SANFan
Posts: 4992
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 5:35 pm

A couple of points on the AS MEX thing.

Last week, AS announced the cancellations of SAN-MEX r/t and one of the LAX-MEX r/t; these rotations used a single EMJ which RONs in SAN. I have heard that the loads and yields on the SAN-MEX service were actually quite satisfactory, especially for a new, int'l route never served before by AAG. The route will have flown just about 6 months -- winter months at that -- when it ceases in late May. I have also heard that the EMJ used for the MEX flights will be used for more traditional (domestic) service from SAN.

The loss of the SAN-MEX route had me scratching my head, but the 'failure' of half of AS's LA-MEX service was perhaps even more confusing. Now this week, we see LAX-MEX back up to 2x daily r/t, prolly both flights with 737s (although I haven't checked yet.) And of course SAN-MEX and SFO-MEX are both gone. Interesting.

Perhaps there were some issues with the EMJ flying to MEX? Crew issues? A/C performance? Other problems involving the routes? I wonder if SAN-MEX and SFO-MEX might not be gone for good but will return after something changes?

This seems to me to be more complex than just a couple of routes that failed due to low loads. These were hard-fought slots to get for MEX and I'm sure AS researched things thoroughly before applying, figuring all 3 MEX routes would do well. The timing and splitting of the LA-MEX rotations is kind of unusual as well.

I have a feeling we may not be done with this whole things yet... Who knows what we might see even as soon as next week!

bb
 
TYSflyer
Posts: 221
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 5:44 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:08 pm

777Mech wrote:
As always thanks Enilria for compiling this every week!

As for the UA cuts, I thought they were in growth mode per their earnings call. What happened?

Atleast some of these appear to be capacity increases though. IAH-SAV goes from 2 50 seat E145 to 1A320 so a net gain of 50 seats. Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but I think this is the first time United mainline has operated IAH-SAV.
 
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enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 9397
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:19 pm

RJNUT wrote:
it just seems to me week over week AS continually seems to shrink .Maybe its just adjustments post merger, but the news hasn't seemed all that great of late?!

There are rumors that the merger has created a pilot shortage.
 
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SANFan
Posts: 4992
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:20 pm

One more thought on the AS-MEX thing going on.

We should be seeing AAG's summer schedules finalized any week now. Those peak season skeds appear to be kicking in between May 20 and June 3 so far but since we're almost into March, we're getting close. Probably their finalized summer skeds will be loaded in the next couple of weeks and at this point, I wouldn't be too surprised to see some further 'adjustments' to the CA-MEX schedules, possibly including re-worked MEX flights for both SAN and SFO.

Essentially, over a two week period, AS upgraded LA-MEX service from 1 daily EMJ r/t + 1 daily 737 r/t to 2x daily 737s. That's just a strange way to do things isn't it? (Think about schedule change reaccomodations that might have already started for pax on the 'cancelled' LA-MEX flights!)

This remains a true head-scratcher and I still believe it's not done yet...

bb
 
wnflyguy
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:21 pm

AlaskaAir SFO-MEX and SAN-MEX service cuts don't surprise me.
SMF,SJC and even FAT have more of a drawl than SFO-MEX. Volaris has been successful in grabbing that market and even they don't run some of it Daily. Most of the people flying that route aren't going to trek to SFO to fly to Mexico City.
Same can be said with SAN- MEX service.
More Mexicans are willing to
Trek to TIJ vs SAN for flights to Mexico City.

Having just LAX as it's Mexico City Gateway should work fine for it's low network connection feed.

In addition AS is getting ready to ramp up PAE flying in the Fall . Now that WN and UA are in the market I'm hearing it will be a mixture of main line and Horizon.
Those markets should produce better yields than MEX traffic it also will free up aircraft time for PAE additions.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:24 pm

HA service reductions have to do
With the 767 retirement combined with A321NEO engine delay and delivery issues.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
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jetblastdubai
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:28 pm

777Mech wrote:
As for the UA cuts, I thought they were in growth mode per their earnings call. What happened?


UA is in the process of incorporating 63 additional CR2 aircraft operated by Air Wisc. There must be some frequency increases somewhere in the system as very few of the CR2s are for replacements but instead almost all are net additions.
Every zoo is a petting zoo......if you're a man!
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:29 pm

tphuang wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
Can't believe that after wanting the MEX slots so badly that AS is dropping all but 1x LAX-MEX. I can understand reductions on poorly performing ex-VX routes but this was something AS had pursued aggressively.


I'm not sure if this is related, but I just got a membership email from AS saying Mexico city is waiting for me. I rarely get it about any destination.

they prolly just have an SFO/LAX flight hit the MEX flight perfect. Might even be the same aircraft.

It's definitely the same aircraft. One was apparently flying SAN and LAX and the other SFO and LAX. The fact that they made a switch from LAX to SFO indicates to me that LAX and SFO have similar performance and they made the decision to keep 2 at LAX to be more competitive in the large LAX-MEX market. I think it's better strategy to concentrate on one route vs one daily on several routes and hope one works. But if the MEX cancellations are interchangeable, then that means the entire MEX flying has been performing subpar. Won't be surprised if LAX-MEX gets canceled too if summer flying doesn't yield good results.

Except that AS is a much bigger player at SFO than LAX. AS is easily the #2 carrier at SFO, but I think #5 at LAX.

BTW, verified the SFO-MEX is gone from AS.com.

wedgetail737 wrote:
Thank you, Enilria! These OAG updates are very useful.

:)
777Mech wrote:
As always thanks Enilria for compiling this every week!
:)
SANFan wrote:
Now this week, we see LAX-MEX back up to 2x daily r/t, prolly both flights with 737s (although I haven't checked yet.)

Both are 73Hs.
SANFan wrote:
Essentially, over a two week period, AS upgraded LA-MEX service from 1 daily EMJ r/t + 1 daily 737 r/t to 2x daily 737s. That's just a strange way to do things isn't it? (Think about schedule change reaccomodations that might have already started for pax on the 'cancelled' LA-MEX flights!)

Agreed. It makes no sense. Why would they add capacity on LAX-MEX when they were thinking of cutting capacity? I have to wonder if there are several factors at play. 1) The routes suck. 2) They needed the E175 to backfill mainline because of the pilot shortage I'm hearing. 3) Perhaps there is an operational reason why this happened regarding SFO and LAX being combined? Or it has to do with which slot times they want to keep? The most valuable ones?
 
jetmatt777
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:35 pm

enilria wrote:
AA CLT-GNV MAY 4>5


Love seeing GNV get some love. Wish UA flew there, as I have family nearby. I have to fly into TPA or JAX and drive 2 hours.

enilria wrote:
VC AUS-OKC APR 0.5>0.3


This is actually a combination of a pushed back start date as well as an increase. Goes from 4x weekly Apr 2 to 6x weekly beginning April 22.

Thanks for the report, airline!
Lighten up while you still can, don't even try to understand, just find a place to make your stand and take it easy
 
azjubilee
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:37 pm

tphuang wrote:
HA HNL-SFO JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2.0>1.0
Service is cancelled, was seasonal before
*HA KOA-OAK JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
Service start deferred
*HA LIH-OAK MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0.5

I assume this is due to the A321NEO delivery issues.[/quote]
enilria wrote:
good theory


It's not a theory, it's a fact. Service that was planned to be added frequency to SFO isn't happening. The resumption of what was seasonal OAK-KOA isn't returning (not necessarily dropped.) And LIH-OAK was seasonal, but I believe returning as year round has been pushed back. Mind you the other new routes are still proceeding like OGG-SAN, HNL-LGB and some later summer changes as well.
Last edited by azjubilee on Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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SANFan
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:42 pm

enilria wrote:
Agreed. It makes no sense. Why would they add capacity on LAX-MEX when they were thinking of cutting capacity? I have to wonder if there are several factors at play. 1) The routes suck. 2) They needed the E175 to backfill mainline because of the pilot shortage I'm hearing. 3) Perhaps there is an operational reason why this happened regarding SFO and LAX being combined? Or it has to do with which slot times they want to keep? The most valuable ones?

Lots of theories and discussion floating around about the AS-MEX situation. And, I think, deservedly so; there are just a lot of strange aspects to this. Not necessarily the end results -- and have we even gotten to those yet? -- but just how it's been handled.

I still believe that all three cities AS originally selected for the new MEX slots were picked after a lot of research. (That's the Alaska way!) And for 2 of the 3, 1 is a hub and the other a large focus city, to fail after such a short period of time -- that's NOT the AS way! -- is not normal.

Stay tuned...

bb
 
sxf24
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:47 pm

SANFan wrote:
enilria wrote:
Agreed. It makes no sense. Why would they add capacity on LAX-MEX when they were thinking of cutting capacity? I have to wonder if there are several factors at play. 1) The routes suck. 2) They needed the E175 to backfill mainline because of the pilot shortage I'm hearing. 3) Perhaps there is an operational reason why this happened regarding SFO and LAX being combined? Or it has to do with which slot times they want to keep? The most valuable ones?

Lots of theories and discussion floating around about the AS-MEX situation. And, I think, deservedly so; there are just a lot of strange aspects to this. Not necessarily the end results -- and have we even gotten to those yet? -- but just how it's been handled.

I still believe that all three cities AS originally selected for the new MEX slots were picked after a lot of research. (That's the Alaska way!) And for 2 of the 3, 1 is a hub and the other a large focus city, to fail after such a short period of time -- that's NOT the AS way! -- is not normal.

Stay tuned...

bb


Although very interesting, people put too much weight on OAG changes. They may not always align with Airlines’s intentions or what will be sold. It is not unusual for OAG changes to be reversed.
 
usairways85
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:47 pm

enilria wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Thanks again enilria!

:)
tphuang wrote:
AA PHL-SJU JUL 3>2 AUG 3>1.8
B6 keeps adding SJU capacity back
B6 BOS-SJU JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 1.8>1.9
B6 FLL-SJU APR 4>5
B6 JFK-SJU JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
B6 MCO-SJU APR 5>6

I wonder if SJU is using hurricane Maria to really take over the SJU markets. At the expense of AA in many cases it seems like.

Yes, B6 I think is loss-leading back into a dominant position.

Pretty sure 2x PHL-SJU is the normal summer frequency from AA. And last year they operated ~1.8 in Sep. The summer season really starts to wind down by mid-August.
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 7:12 pm

sxf24 wrote:
SANFan wrote:
enilria wrote:
Agreed. It makes no sense. Why would they add capacity on LAX-MEX when they were thinking of cutting capacity? I have to wonder if there are several factors at play. 1) The routes suck. 2) They needed the E175 to backfill mainline because of the pilot shortage I'm hearing. 3) Perhaps there is an operational reason why this happened regarding SFO and LAX being combined? Or it has to do with which slot times they want to keep? The most valuable ones?

Lots of theories and discussion floating around about the AS-MEX situation. And, I think, deservedly so; there are just a lot of strange aspects to this. Not necessarily the end results -- and have we even gotten to those yet? -- but just how it's been handled.

I still believe that all three cities AS originally selected for the new MEX slots were picked after a lot of research. (That's the Alaska way!) And for 2 of the 3, 1 is a hub and the other a large focus city, to fail after such a short period of time -- that's NOT the AS way! -- is not normal.

Stay tuned...

bb


Although very interesting, people put too much weight on OAG changes. They may not always align with Airlines’s intentions or what will be sold. It is not unusual for OAG changes to be reversed.



The AS.com booking engine shows exactly what OAG shows right now.
 
Jo8338
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 7:17 pm

tphuang wrote:
Thanks again enilria!
enilria wrote:
AA PHL-SJU JUL 3>2 AUG 3>1.8
B6 keeps adding SJU capacity back
B6 BOS-SJU JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 1.8>1.9
B6 FLL-SJU APR 4>5
B6 JFK-SJU JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
B6 MCO-SJU APR 5>6

I wonder if SJU is using hurricane Maria to really take over the SJU markets. At the expense of AA in many cases it seems like.

AS FLL-SFO MAY 1.2>0.8
*AS LAX-MEX MAY 1.6>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2
*AS SFO-MEX MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0





Not sure if this is new, but FLL-LAX is down to 1 daily from late May to late August. interesting move to consolidate LAX-MEX and drop SFO-MEX.


HA HNL-SFO JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2.0>1.0
Service is cancelled, was seasonal before
*HA KOA-OAK JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
Service start deferred
*HA LIH-OAK MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0.5

I assume this is due to the A321NEO delivery issues.



Any chance AS pulls out of FLL -LAX ? I could see b6 increasing frequency
 
iyerhari
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 7:26 pm

enilria wrote:

AA PHL-YQB JUN 0.8>1.6 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2

*DL ATL-YVR NOV 0.9>0
DL BOS-ATL OCT 11>12
DL LGA-BOS MAY 13>14 JUN 13>14 JUL 13>12
DL SLC-YVR OCT 1.9>1.0



PHL gets a nice bump for YQB - that's also the only AA hub servicing YQB.

DL YVR cuts for ATL and SLC.

LGA gets even gets hotter - 12 flights on AA, 14 on DL and 6 on B6 from BOS. 32 flights one way at the peak flown by 3 carriers.

Thank you enilrea as always.
 
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SANFan
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 7:55 pm

SFOtoORD wrote:
The AS.com booking engine shows exactly what OAG shows right now.


Correct -- two daily r/t LAX-MEX after May 20 is their current MEX-service schedule.

bb
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 8:58 pm

SANFan wrote:
enilria wrote:
Agreed. It makes no sense. Why would they add capacity on LAX-MEX when they were thinking of cutting capacity? I have to wonder if there are several factors at play. 1) The routes suck. 2) They needed the E175 to backfill mainline because of the pilot shortage I'm hearing. 3) Perhaps there is an operational reason why this happened regarding SFO and LAX being combined? Or it has to do with which slot times they want to keep? The most valuable ones?

Lots of theories and discussion floating around about the AS-MEX situation. And, I think, deservedly so; there are just a lot of strange aspects to this. Not necessarily the end results -- and have we even gotten to those yet? -- but just how it's been handled.

I still believe that all three cities AS originally selected for the new MEX slots were picked after a lot of research. (That's the Alaska way!) And for 2 of the 3, 1 is a hub and the other a large focus city, to fail after such a short period of time -- that's NOT the AS way! -- is not normal.

Stay tuned...

bb


good LF doesn't mean good yields. Normally the easiest explanation is the correct one, which is the routes were underperforming. All the other routes that got cut down like MCO-LAX, FLL-LAX (to once daily), SFO-MSP and FLL-SFO were all really low yielding routes. I don't have yield numbers for an international routes, so I can't guarantee it's the same reason, but my guess would be the same. Remember, AS also cut SFO/LAX-CUN.

Jo8338 wrote:
Any chance AS pulls out of FLL -LAX ? I could see b6 increasing frequency


As long as B6 doesn't add more frequencies on FLL-LAX, I see no reason for AS to pull out of FLL-LAX. Especially during winter time, when it's one of the few transcon with good demands. And at this point, B6 hasn't given any indication that it will add to FLL-LAX/SFO in the near future despite the routes being among the best performing mint routes. All the new mint frequencies have gone into BOS.
 
adam47150
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 9:38 pm

I'm surprised that there haven't been any increases in May flights into SDF (for Derby) and IND (for the 500). Of course, I may not have been following these weekly reports long enough and they may have already been filed.
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 9:41 pm

iyerhari wrote:
enilria wrote:

AA PHL-YQB JUN 0.8>1.6 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2

*DL ATL-YVR NOV 0.9>0
DL BOS-ATL OCT 11>12
DL LGA-BOS MAY 13>14 JUN 13>14 JUL 13>12
DL SLC-YVR OCT 1.9>1.0



PHL gets a nice bump for YQB - that's also the only AA hub servicing YQB.

DL YVR cuts for ATL and SLC.

LGA gets even gets hotter - 12 flights on AA, 14 on DL and 6 on B6 from BOS. 32 flights one way at the peak flown by 3 carriers.

Thank you enilrea as always.


Wow AA's brought YQB back up to 2x. I wonder a) if them trying to take advantage of YQB's upcoming preclearance and b) if they'll take this legacy US station back up to year-round service?

As for YVR-ATL, I always thought this seasonal route ended in October? As for YVR-SLC only 1x is strange. Like someone said above, DL must be wanting to beef up loads on their YVR-SEA route.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 9:45 pm

Its pretty comical how Alaska has repeatedly over the years had issues making some Mexico markets work.
You’d think they would be armed with better info and more strategic second or third time around.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
rajincajun01
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 9:55 pm

Haven’t seen it in a OAG yet but AS is also dropping DEN-SFO in early June.
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SANFan
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 9:57 pm

tphuang wrote:
good LF doesn't mean good yields. Normally the easiest explanation is the correct one, which is the routes were underperforming.

You are correct.

However, if you read my reply #18, I made mention of what I heard from someone supposedly familiar with the numbers:

SANFan wrote:
Last week, AS announced the cancellations of SAN-MEX r/t and one of the LAX-MEX r/t; these rotations used a single EMJ which RONs in SAN. I have heard that the loads and yields on the SAN-MEX service were actually quite satisfactory, especially for a new, int'l route never served before by AAG. The route will have flown just about 6 months -- winter months at that -- when it ceases in late May.


Not just LF, but yields are apparently good. Even if loads and yields are merely "OK", to cut hard-to-get int'l routes at MEX -- slot controlled service that had to be applied for and substantiated -- from key AS cities , SFO and SAN, after much less than a year of service, just seems unlike Alaska's pattern. Why not let the routes at least run thru the 3 peak summer months to see if the loads come up to sustainable levels?

I don't believe this is an example of "the easiest explanation is the correct one." Not this time.

bb
 
Aliqiout
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 9:59 pm

adam47150 wrote:
I'm surprised that there haven't been any increases in May flights into SDF (for Derby) and IND (for the 500). Of course, I may not have been following these weekly reports long enough and they may have already been filed.

Flights may have been added as the schedule was loaded. This report only shows changes to what was already loaded.

When do they usually add flights for events like this?
 
jayunited
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 10:21 pm

777Mech wrote:
As always thanks Enilria for compiling this every week!

As for the UA cuts, I thought they were in growth mode per their earnings call. What happened?


Many of these routes are being upguaged to either larger United Express aircraft or in some cases mainline aircraft. OAG changes posted on this thread every Sunday only record the difference in frequency not actual capacity.
 
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SANFan
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 10:45 pm

rajincajun01 wrote:
Haven’t seen it in a OAG yet but AS is also dropping DEN-SFO in early June.

Interesting. I'm also waiting to see what happens with the 'odd' Vegas routes that Virgin currently offers such as to LAX, SFO and JFK. In particular, will LAS-JFK continue or be dropped? LA/SF-Vegas I see staying as I imagine eventually AS will be serving LAS from several key CA markets, prolly adding focus cities, SAN & SJC and perhaps SNA and/or SMF as well.

But LAS-JFK is a rather questionable. Personally, I would love to see AS pull that route and a/c and reallocate it between JFK and a focus city in CA...

Looks to me like the VX house cleaning continues.

bb
 
cvgComair
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 10:47 pm

enilria wrote:
P1 LUK-PDK APR 1.4>0.7 MAY 1.4>0.7

I worry the end might be near for Ultimate Air Shuttle, all of their routes appear to be struggling. In their current schedule, LUK-MDW/MMU/PDK are scheduled to end after May 25, while LUK-CLT ends after June 19. That leaves only LUK-BKL at 2x/day, which is scheduled through the end of the booking window (Oct 26). I am hoping they are just waiting to extend these flights in the schedule, but it doesn't look too good. With pax numbers down 24% YOY, the future doesn't look bright.
 
nkops
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 11:10 pm

cvgComair wrote:
enilria wrote:
P1 LUK-PDK APR 1.4>0.7 MAY 1.4>0.7

I worry the end might be near for Ultimate Air Shuttle.


Their future may just be in charters.. I believe they have 3 aircraft dedicated to the Caesars contract out of ACY
Turn left heading 080 contact departure
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 11:24 pm

rajincajun01 wrote:
Haven’t seen it in a OAG yet but AS is also dropping DEN-SFO in early June.



Looks like it, when AS cut a route, they first set all the remaining dates to some really high fare with no changes for the rest of calendar. That's what they did for other routes they cut and looks like the case with SFO-DEN. I suppose this won't show up until next week

It does make me wonder if they are cutting MSP and DEN, what's stopping them from SLC, which is also a legacy fortress hub that's very low yielding for AS. And also if any of the new routes to PHL/MSY/BNA/RDU will get axed.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 11:29 pm

tphuang wrote:
rajincajun01 wrote:
Haven’t seen it in a OAG yet but AS is also dropping DEN-SFO in early June.



Looks like it, when AS cut a route, they first set all the remaining dates to some really high fare with no changes for the rest of calendar. That's what they did for other routes they cut and looks like the case with SFO-DEN. I suppose this won't show up until next week

It does make me wonder if they are cutting MSP and DEN, what's stopping them from SLC, which is also a legacy fortress hub that's very low yielding for AS. And also if any of the new routes to PHL/MSY/BNA/RDU will get axed.


I'd like to see what happens to VX routes over several years. AS tried intra-CA routes when they merged Jet America into the AS system and did the "California Dreamin'" promotion with Roy Orbison sunglasses on the MD-80 Eskimos. But I think AS lost a lot during that promotion and abandoned the effort.
 
cvgComair
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 11:31 pm

nkops wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
enilria wrote:
P1 LUK-PDK APR 1.4>0.7 MAY 1.4>0.7

I worry the end might be near for Ultimate Air Shuttle.

Their future may just be in charters.. I believe they have 3 aircraft dedicated to the Caesars contract out of ACY

That must be what is happening, looking at FlightAware, the arrivals and departures lists are filled with UJC flights. Hopefully they keep LUK-BKL around, that is a niche route that will probably go unserved without them.
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Sun Feb 25, 2018 11:50 pm

tphuang wrote:
rajincajun01 wrote:
Haven’t seen it in a OAG yet but AS is also dropping DEN-SFO in early June.



Looks like it, when AS cut a route, they first set all the remaining dates to some really high fare with no changes for the rest of calendar. That's what they did for other routes they cut and looks like the case with SFO-DEN. I suppose this won't show up until next week

It does make me wonder if they are cutting MSP and DEN, what's stopping them from SLC, which is also a legacy fortress hub that's very low yielding for AS. And also if any of the new routes to PHL/MSY/BNA/RDU will get axed.


If this is indeed true, it makes me wonder about the viability of the SFO AS hub. Isn't DEN a Top 10 domestic O&D destination from SFO? This cut, along with MSP and possibly FLL, start to diminish the "relevance" that AS commands from a Bay Area point-of-sale. I wonder what the strategy is here, and if AS is really committed to a major SFO operation.

BAINY3 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I wonder if SJU is using hurricane Maria to really take over the SJU markets. At the expense of AA in many cases it seems like.


I assume you meant to say "B6" instead of "SJU" the first time.

Anyway, this is nothing new. B6 has been taking over from AA at SJU for years.


AA has long been drawn down at SJU. If anything, I think B6 is trying to get further ahead of WN, which has been slow to restore its PR operations. B6 is going to be at pre-hurricane peaks by this spring. It's interesting that B6 remains bullish on a market that has a shrinking economy, which has only been dealt further blows by the hurricane and slow recovery efforts. It remains to be seen if this loss leading eventually pays off...
 
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Re: OAG Changes 2/25/2018: HA Drops OAK-KOA, Defers LIH; AS Drops SFO-MEX

Mon Feb 26, 2018 12:10 am

jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
rajincajun01 wrote:
Haven’t seen it in a OAG yet but AS is also dropping DEN-SFO in early June.



Looks like it, when AS cut a route, they first set all the remaining dates to some really high fare with no changes for the rest of calendar. That's what they did for other routes they cut and looks like the case with SFO-DEN. I suppose this won't show up until next week

It does make me wonder if they are cutting MSP and DEN, what's stopping them from SLC, which is also a legacy fortress hub that's very low yielding for AS. And also if any of the new routes to PHL/MSY/BNA/RDU will get axed.

I wonder what the strategy is here, and if AS is really committed to a major SFO operation.


They need to make money first and foremost, and a lot of the routes they are cutting are marginal at best, if you have listened to their investor presentations they will say that as well. While it may not be good for all SFO based FFs, the a/c can be redeployed on routes that are more profitable.
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