afcjets
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AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:50 pm

What has happened to the market share gaps between DL and AA since AA downgauged from 762s to 32T and DL up-gauged from all 757s to mostly widebody? AA still has higher frequency and three classes but both have all lie flat seating except in Y. I think a total game changer will be when DL puts the Delta One Suite on this route, which I think is likely to happen at some point. AA will likely retrofit in that case. I personally think even if DL put only one A350 on this route it would have an impact, but I know they won't.
 
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American 767
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:46 pm

American may have reduced the number of seats sold on that market but if you look at the shares of revenue, most of the revenue on American is F and C Class, as opposed to Y Class. Because most people who travel on that route fly for business.
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BenflysDTW
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:00 pm

afcjets wrote:
What has happened to the market share gaps between DL and AA since AA downgauged from 762s to 32T and DL up-gauged from all 757s to mostly widebody? AA still has higher frequency and three classes but both have all lie flat seating except in Y. I think a total game changer will be when DL puts the Delta One Suite on this route, which I think is likely to happen at some point. AA will likely retrofit in that case. I personally think even if DL put only one A350 on this route it would have an impact, but I know they won't.

I agree. They could do some effective aircraft repositioning , but Delta would need and already needs more than 25 A350 IMO. They could order the 1000 on heavier demand routes to offset the 9.
 
airzona11
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:06 pm

Doesn't AA own the most corporate contracts on the NY and LA ends? Hence, the most premium offering. UA has the premium config 757s on a lot of flights, but less so than AA. DL is normal configuration.
 
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Polot
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:06 pm

I doubt putting the DL suite product on the route would be a “game changer”. It is not that much different from current lieflats on the route, it just has a small door. Certinatly not worth using an aircraft sub optimized for the route. A lot of the demand/choice is governed by contracts anyways.
 
Gabrielz
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:10 pm

airzona11 wrote:
Doesn't AA own the most corporate contracts on the NY and LA ends? Hence, the most premium offering. UA has the premium config 757s on a lot of flights, but less so than AA. DL is normal configuration.


UA only operates the premium product between LAX / SFO and EWR. there is no F class however and there are a few different 757 configs + the occasional 777 to contend with.

-G
 
micstatic
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:12 pm

Also it's worth considering the jetblue mint product. From my understanding, some people are really enjoying that product over delta/american offering.
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winginit
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:23 pm

afcjets wrote:
I think a total game changer will be when DL puts the Delta One Suite on this route, which I think is likely to happen at some point.


I think that's exceptionally unlikely and doubt it would be a game-changer even if it did happen. Even with the strongest headwind in the world JFKLAX is only 6 hours and 45 minutes whereas the Delta One suite (and other competitive suite offerings a la the ME3, etc.) cater to true long haul services in excess of 13 hours for obvious reasons (with the exception of LHR). Delta simply has better places to deploy their Delta One Suites where they can ensure they'll be compensated for what is a very expensive investment.

The average business traveler simply isn't going to have enough time in the air to appreciate minute product details like a door, or at least appreciate them enough to warrant paying a revenue premium for it when schedule is such a tremendous driver of carrier selection on the transcon.

I think the real question is whether or not AA will eventually retrofit away the true F cabin on their A321Ts. They command a revenue premium on the transcon given the dedicated F cabin that's popular with the E&P accounts in both LAX and JFK, but I'm not sure it's enough to warrant that dedicated cabin whose product isn't honestly all that different from J on the exact same aircraft. The A321T configuration was grandfathered in from the pre-merger Horton/Vahidi days and is in my mind ripe to be US Airway'd-away like we'll inevitably see with the 77W dedicated F cabin.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:35 pm

IIRC, there are public data for non-stop passenger counts by carrier between airport pairs. The last time I recall seeing such data, Delta was the market share leader. That may go back far enough to be pre-Mint.

Can anybody point to public data for passenger counts by cabin, or by total revenue? I don't believe so.
 
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:39 pm

I think it's clear enough that AA's NYC strategy has been to slowly de-emphasize everything but the largest business markets, hence the low-density product that they have on JFKLAX. If it can wow corporate customers, then using a relatively niche configuration isn't much of an issue.

DL on the other hand wants to make a play for other market segments as well, so 757s allow for more capacity while offering relatively premium domestic products. IIRC, JFK is also one of their 757 bases, so it makes it fairly easy to rotate the aircraft between domestic and international flying.
 
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:42 pm

airzona11 wrote:
Doesn't AA own the most corporate contracts on the NY and LA ends? Hence, the most premium offering... DL is normal configuration.


AFAIK all DL widebodies have Delta One lie flat seating, unless they still have the Hawaii configuration on a few 767s. The 757s on that route are not the standard configuration, they all have Delta One.
 
LupineChemist
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:43 pm

It's my understanding that the three class really works well because a lot of the high power contracts require "highest class" so by adding F, they can really get some revenue premiums.over J that wouldn't be viable on lots of routes because of the amount of very wealthy people flying between the two daily.
 
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:48 pm

BenflysDTW wrote:
afcjets wrote:
What has happened to the market share gaps between DL and AA since AA downgauged from 762s to 32T and DL up-gauged from all 757s to mostly widebody? AA still has higher frequency and three classes but both have all lie flat seating except in Y. I think a total game changer will be when DL puts the Delta One Suite on this route, which I think is likely to happen at some point. AA will likely retrofit in that case. I personally think even if DL put only one A350 on this route it would have an impact, but I know they won't.

I agree. They could do some effective aircraft repositioning , but Delta would need and already needs more than 25 A350 IMO. They could order the 1000 on heavier demand routes to offset the 9.


JFK-TLV is rumored to be an A350 at some point, and the current A330 rotates through LAX so that might happen with the A350 as well.
Nothing better than the sound of a 77W GE90-115B on engine start.
 
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:58 pm

afcjets wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
Doesn't AA own the most corporate contracts on the NY and LA ends? Hence, the most premium offering... DL is normal configuration.


AFAIK all DL widebodies have Delta One lie flat seating, unless they still have the Hawaii configuration on a few 767s. The 757s on that route are not the standard configuration, they all have Delta One.


I agree. My point was more that AA has a special transcon product, UA has their Premium Sevice, higher J count 757s. DL doesnt have a dedicated fleet, they just cycle their international birds in on the route. They have all chosen to address the market their ways. Obviously AA the only one with true First Class still. Then there is also B6 with their MINT. Very cool to see the market have those different options.
 
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Continental767
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:25 pm

winginit wrote:
afcjets wrote:
I think a total game changer will be when DL puts the Delta One Suite on this route, which I think is likely to happen at some point.


I think that's exceptionally unlikely and doubt it would be a game-changer even if it did happen. Even with the strongest headwind in the world JFKLAX is only 6 hours and 45 minutes whereas the Delta One suite (and other competitive suite offerings a la the ME3, etc.) cater to true long haul services in excess of 13 hours for obvious reasons (with the exception of LHR). Delta simply has better places to deploy their Delta One Suites where they can ensure they'll be compensated for what is a very expensive investment.

The average business traveler simply isn't going to have enough time in the air to appreciate minute product details like a door, or at least appreciate them enough to warrant paying a revenue premium for it when schedule is such a tremendous driver of carrier selection on the transcon.

I think the real question is whether or not AA will eventually retrofit away the true F cabin on their A321Ts. They command a revenue premium on the transcon given the dedicated F cabin that's popular with the E&P accounts in both LAX and JFK, but I'm not sure it's enough to warrant that dedicated cabin whose product isn't honestly all that different from J on the exact same aircraft. The A321T configuration was grandfathered in from the pre-merger Horton/Vahidi days and is in my mind ripe to be US Airway'd-away like we'll inevitably see with the 77W dedicated F cabin.


No way that AA is getting rid of F on their A321Ts OR 77Ws. They just installed Flagship First Dining facilities at many airports and have plans for more. AA first is here to stay for the foreseeable future
Indianapolis.
 
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:39 pm

BenflysDTW wrote:
afcjets wrote:
What has happened to the market share gaps between DL and AA since AA downgauged from 762s to 32T and DL up-gauged from all 757s to mostly widebody? AA still has higher frequency and three classes but both have all lie flat seating except in Y. I think a total game changer will be when DL puts the Delta One Suite on this route, which I think is likely to happen at some point. AA will likely retrofit in that case. I personally think even if DL put only one A350 on this route it would have an impact, but I know they won't.

I agree. They could do some effective aircraft repositioning , but Delta would need and already needs more than 25 A350 IMO. They could order the 1000 on heavier demand routes to offset the 9.


A350 is not needed on a less than 6 hour route. DL will use A333s. So the A339s, A359s, and 77E/L can be used on routes befitting their capabilities. Doesn't change your basic premise though.

And so far DL has passed on 77Ws at fire sale prices, which because of acquisition cost would be a better choice than an A3510 (or 778 or 779) on a transcon if capacity is needed. DL is currently allergic to much more than 300 seats on a plane
 
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:43 pm

airzona11 wrote:
Doesn't AA own the most corporate contracts on the NY and LA ends? Hence, the most premium offering. UA has the premium config 757s on a lot of flights, but less so than AA. DL is normal configuration.


It's 2018 not 2008 corporate contracts are so old. Barely a factor anymore.

No AA just has FFs on the route and offers an outstanding product. They keep their ff happy on this route.

AA has greatly reduced coach seat numbers but has kept plenty of premium business and first seats in the market with a great time offering. Add in flagship first check in both lax and JFK that is a huge win for celebrities and heavy frequent flyers on that route. AA is the market leader because they offer the best product.
 
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:54 pm

AA markets this for O&D traffic and not connections. There is no way to go from LAX to say, BOS via JFK without building a multi segment itinerary and paying more- AA will route you via ORD or PHL for thru passengers.

The flights go out very full in F and J.

JFK is a large hub for DL, so the extra capacity in Y makes sense.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN DEN DOH BLR MAA KTM YYZ MEX
 
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:56 pm

DL777200LR wrote:
BenflysDTW wrote:
afcjets wrote:
What has happened to the market share gaps between DL and AA since AA downgauged from 762s to 32T and DL up-gauged from all 757s to mostly widebody? AA still has higher frequency and three classes but both have all lie flat seating except in Y. I think a total game changer will be when DL puts the Delta One Suite on this route, which I think is likely to happen at some point. AA will likely retrofit in that case. I personally think even if DL put only one A350 on this route it would have an impact, but I know they won't.

I agree. They could do some effective aircraft repositioning , but Delta would need and already needs more than 25 A350 IMO. They could order the 1000 on heavier demand routes to offset the 9.


JFK-TLV is rumored to be an A350 at some point, and the current A330 rotates through LAX so that might happen with the A350 as well.

DL starts LAX-PVG in July, so possibly. I would love to see at least one of the JFK-LHR-JFK get the A350 at some point.
 
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:09 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
Doesn't AA own the most corporate contracts on the NY and LA ends? Hence, the most premium offering. UA has the premium config 757s on a lot of flights, but less so than AA. DL is normal configuration.


It's 2018 not 2008 corporate contracts are so old. Barely a factor anymore.


Are you serious? Corporate contracts are still a massive component of the industry, as important as ever with the introduction of specialty verticals and the like, and several long haul international routes (at least those operated by the US3) are viable only because of locked-in contractual traffic that provides discounts for share guarantees. All of the US3 rely heavily on corporate and agency contracts to drive premium revenue towards the transcon, and to say otherwise shows complete ignorance of the Sales side of this industry.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
AA is the market leader because they offer the best product.


Define market leader if you could please, because as of the most recent public data available (T100 ending 3Q2017) Delta carries far more transcon passengers per day than AA (1222 vs. 811) and thus commands far more revenue. If you don't carry the most passengers and you don't generate the most revenue by what definition are you a market leader?
 
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:34 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
Doesn't AA own the most corporate contracts on the NY and LA ends? Hence, the most premium offering. UA has the premium config 757s on a lot of flights, but less so than AA. DL is normal configuration.


It's 2018 not 2008 corporate contracts are so old. Barely a factor anymore.

No AA just has FFs on the route and offers an outstanding product. They keep their ff happy on this route.

AA has greatly reduced coach seat numbers but has kept plenty of premium business and first seats in the market with a great time offering. Add in flagship first check in both lax and JFK that is a huge win for celebrities and heavy frequent flyers on that route. AA is the market leader because they offer the best product.


From first-hand experience I can tell you that corporate contracts are a HUGE factor on this route. When you say "celebrities" are flying AA, who do you think are paying for the tickets? Generally it's studios, record companies, TV channels, etc. And guess what? They ALL have corporate contracts for their F and J passengers.
 
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:35 pm

winginit wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
Doesn't AA own the most corporate contracts on the NY and LA ends? Hence, the most premium offering. UA has the premium config 757s on a lot of flights, but less so than AA. DL is normal configuration.


It's 2018 not 2008 corporate contracts are so old. Barely a factor anymore.


Are you serious? Corporate contracts are still a massive component of the industry, as important as ever with the introduction of specialty verticals and the like, and several long haul international routes (at least those operated by the US3) are viable only because of locked-in contractual traffic that provides discounts for share guarantees. All of the US3 rely heavily on corporate and agency contracts to drive premium revenue towards the transcon, and to say otherwise shows complete ignorance of the Sales side of this industry.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
AA is the market leader because they offer the best product.


Define market leader if you could please, because as of the most recent public data available (T100 ending 3Q2017) Delta carries far more transcon passengers per day than AA (1222 vs. 811) and thus commands far more revenue. If you don't carry the most passengers and you don't generate the most revenue by what definition are you a market leader?


How about common sense: revenue per passenger?
 
LawAndOrder
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:12 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
winginit wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

It's 2018 not 2008 corporate contracts are so old. Barely a factor anymore.


Are you serious? Corporate contracts are still a massive component of the industry, as important as ever with the introduction of specialty verticals and the like, and several long haul international routes (at least those operated by the US3) are viable only because of locked-in contractual traffic that provides discounts for share guarantees. All of the US3 rely heavily on corporate and agency contracts to drive premium revenue towards the transcon, and to say otherwise shows complete ignorance of the Sales side of this industry.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
AA is the market leader because they offer the best product.


Define market leader if you could please, because as of the most recent public data available (T100 ending 3Q2017) Delta carries far more transcon passengers per day than AA (1222 vs. 811) and thus commands far more revenue. If you don't carry the most passengers and you don't generate the most revenue by what definition are you a market leader?


How about common sense: revenue per passenger?uote]

That's like saying the item that cost the most at the grocery store make it the category leader. Just because you get more revenue on average (yield) per passenger does not mean you are generating the most revenue on the route. I hope that isn't what we are defining as cost leader. Business product is virtually identical...and first has 4 seats
 
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Polot
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:22 pm

LawAndOrder wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
winginit wrote:

Are you serious? Corporate contracts are still a massive component of the industry, as important as ever with the introduction of specialty verticals and the like, and several long haul international routes (at least those operated by the US3) are viable only because of locked-in contractual traffic that provides discounts for share guarantees. All of the US3 rely heavily on corporate and agency contracts to drive premium revenue towards the transcon, and to say otherwise shows complete ignorance of the Sales side of this industry.



Define market leader if you could please, because as of the most recent public data available (T100 ending 3Q2017) Delta carries far more transcon passengers per day than AA (1222 vs. 811) and thus commands far more revenue. If you don't carry the most passengers and you don't generate the most revenue by what definition are you a market leader?


How about common sense: revenue per passenger?uote]

That's like saying the item that cost the most at the grocery store make it the category leader. Just because you get more revenue on average (yield) per passenger does not mean you are generating the most revenue on the route. I hope that isn't what we are defining as cost leader. Business product is virtually identical...and first has 4 seats

Yield is what is important to airlines though. DL is using larger planes than AA, they should be carrying more passengers. That doesn’t mean DL’s revenue is much higher though. Also AA’s A321Ts have 10 F seats, not 4.
 
winginit
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:21 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
How about common sense: revenue per passenger?


Ah of course. So Bugatti is the industry leader of automobile manufacturing?
 
afcjets
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:31 pm

winginit wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
AA is the market leader because they offer the best product.


Define market leader if you could please, because as of the most recent public data available (T100 ending 3Q2017) Delta carries far more transcon passengers per day than AA (1222 vs. 811) and thus commands far more revenue. If you don't carry the most passengers and you don't generate the most revenue by what definition are you a market leader?


Because of yield (revenue per revenue passenger mile), it would be possible for AA to generate more revenue from their 811 passengers vs. Delta's 1222, especially since 30% of AA's capacity is F or J, vs. only 10-12% on Delta (depending on a/c type). I would still guess Delta overall generates more revenue since many of the J seats are upgrades from actual Y fares.

The specific question I was asking though is how their market share gaps compare, so for the purpose of this post consider that how I am defining the market leader (though I wouldn't necessarily use that term here)

Each airline has a QSI (quality of service index) which is the percentage of the market they should carry, based on their product/capacity vs the competition, and any percentage points above or below their QSI is their market share gap, which can be either positive (good) or negative (bad). Connecting traffic is figured into QSI too but obviously connecting capacity is not weighted nearly as high as nonstop flights.

Here is a simple example, three airlines in a market that only fly nonstop and no connections on any airline exist and they all fly the same equipment with the same seats/configuration. If there are 10 total flights between where airline A has 5 flights, airline B has 3 and airline C has 2, their respective QSIs are 50, 30, and 20 for a total of 100, where A would be expected to carry 50% of passengers in that market, B should carry 30% and C should carry 20%. If instead A carries only 45%, B carries 34%, and C carries 21%, (still for a total of 100% obviously) the largest carrier A has a share gap of -5, B has a share gap of +4, and C has a share gap of +1. In this case, B, although not the largest carrier, has the highest share gap and is the one outperforming the most, and is what I am curious about when it comes to AA vs. DL in JFK-LAX.

If AA has the highest share gap in the market, then essentially slcdeltarumd11's subjective statement above is correct.
Last edited by afcjets on Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Antarius
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:45 pm

afcjets wrote:
winginit wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:



Define market leader if you could please, because as of the most recent public data available (T100 ending 3Q2017) Delta carries far more transcon passengers per day than AA (1222 vs. 811) and thus commands far more revenue. If you don't carry the most passengers and you don't generate the most revenue by what definition are you a market leader?


Because of yield (revenue per revenue passenger mile), it would be possible for AA to generate more revenue from their 811 passengers vs. Delta's 1222, especially since 30% of AA's capacity is F or J, vs. only 10-12% on Delta (depending on a/c type). I would still guess Delta overall generates more revenue since many of the J seats are upgrades from actual Y fares.

The specific question I was asking though is how their market share gaps compare, so for the purpose of this post consider that how I am defining the market leader (though I wouldn't necessarily use that term here)

Each airline has a QSI (quality of service index) which is the percentage of the market they should carry, based on their product/capacity vs the competition, and any percentage points above or below their QSI is their market share gap, which can be either positive (good) or negative (bad). Connecting traffic is figured into QSI to but obviously connecting capacity is not weighted nearly as high as nonstop flights.

Here is a simple example, three airlines in a market that only fly nonstop and no connections on any airline exist and they all fly the same equipment with the same seats/configuration. If there are 10 total flights between where airline A has 5, airline B has 3 and airline C has 2, their respective QSIs are 50, 30, and 20 for a total of 100, where A would be expected to carry 50% of passengers in that market, B should carry 30% and C should carry 20%. If instead A carries only 45%, B carries 34%, and C carries 21%, (still for a total of 100% obviously) the largest carrier A has a negative share gap of 5, B has a positive share gap of 4, and C has a positive share gap of 1. In this case, B, although not the largest carrier, is the one outperforming the most, and is what I am curious about when it comes to AA vs. DL in JFK-LAX.

If AA has the highest share gap in the market, then essentially slcdeltarumd11 is right.


AA and DL are not competing for identical markets. There is some overlap in the paid J section, AA has the upper hand offering F and the corporate contracts that come with it and DL has the upper hand in terms of total passengers. AA does not market fares via JFK for connections. their LAX/SFO-JFO strategy is based purely on O&D. Building a LAX-JFK-xyz requires a multi-segment itinerary and it is priced as 2 one ways. AA will route passengers via ORD or PHL (or even DFW/PHX) for connections.

AA may have more revenue per passenger by virtue of their distribution while DL has more total revenue (projecting, not sure). But they aren't going at it head to head in a lot of ways, so comparing the two doesn't yield too much value, IMO.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN DEN DOH BLR MAA KTM YYZ MEX
 
afcjets
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Thu Mar 01, 2018 12:01 am

Antarius wrote:

AA and DL are not competing for identical markets. There is some overlap in the paid J section, AA has the upper hand offering F and the corporate contracts that come with it and DL has the upper hand in terms of total passengers. AA does not market fares via JFK for connections. their LAX/SFO-JFO strategy is based purely on O&D. Building a LAX-JFK-xyz requires a multi-segment itinerary and it is priced as 2 one ways. AA will route passengers via ORD or PHL (or even DFW/PHX) for connections.

AA may have more revenue per passenger by virtue of their distribution while has more total revenue (projecting, not sure). But they aren't going at it head to head in a lot of ways, so comparing the two doesn't yield too much value, IMO.


They are both competing for paid J and high yielding Y and Y+ upgrades (both offering free alcohol and upgraded meals in Y+ and even represents half the Y cabin on AA), AA just no longer cares about carrying the most passengers with only 36 regular coach seats per jet. Also, DL is definitely calling on AA's corporate accounts, even the ones who have staff who can only fly F where both F and J are offered, because not all employees/actors have that in their contracts and contracts are not permanent. Besides, Delta One markets it as an F like product for the price of J (hence the One in Delta One), and not to mention the seat that AA sells as F, is actually a J seat.

Just to clarify, when I mention connections in the QSI example above, I am talking about connections that exist within the O&D (i.e JFK-ORD-LAX), not beyond the O&D like LAX-JFK-BOS. But you are correct since AA does not market domestic connections via JFK (barring some Hawaii flights), they preserve more for the local market which would affect their share gap in a positive way.
 
commavia
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Thu Mar 01, 2018 12:31 am

Antarius wrote:
AA and DL are not competing for identical markets. There is some overlap in the paid J section, AA has the upper hand offering F and the corporate contracts that come with it and DL has the upper hand in terms of total passengers. AA does not market fares via JFK for connections. their LAX/SFO-JFO strategy is based purely on O&D. Building a LAX-JFK-xyz requires a multi-segment itinerary and it is priced as 2 one ways. AA will route passengers via ORD or PHL (or even DFW/PHX) for connections.


In general, I agree with the point that AA and Delta have different strategies for approaching the JFK-LAX market, with AA clearly going for yield over volume and heavily emphasizing premium corporate traffic.

That said, it is, respectfully, simply not true that AA does not market connections on LAX-JFK. AA will happily sell lots of connections on these flights, including connections from LAX across the Atlantic over JFK, and from JFK across the Pacific over LAX.
 
winginit
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Thu Mar 01, 2018 12:41 am

afcjets wrote:
winginit wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:



Define market leader if you could please, because as of the most recent public data available (T100 ending 3Q2017) Delta carries far more transcon passengers per day than AA (1222 vs. 811) and thus commands far more revenue. If you don't carry the most passengers and you don't generate the most revenue by what definition are you a market leader?


Because of yield (revenue per revenue passenger mile), it would be possible for AA to generate more revenue from their 811 passengers vs. Delta's 1222, especially since 30% of AA's capacity is F or J, vs. only 10-12% on Delta (depending on a/c type). I would still guess Delta overall generates more revenue since many of the J seats are upgrades from actual Y fares.

The specific question I was asking though is how their market share gaps compare, so for the purpose of this post consider that how I am defining the market leader (though I wouldn't necessarily use that term here)

Each airline has a QSI (quality of service index) which is the percentage of the market they should carry, based on their product/capacity vs the competition, and any percentage points above or below their QSI is their market share gap, which can be either positive (good) or negative (bad). Connecting traffic is figured into QSI too but obviously connecting capacity is not weighted nearly as high as nonstop flights.

Here is a simple example, three airlines in a market that only fly nonstop and no connections on any airline exist and they all fly the same equipment with the same seats/configuration. If there are 10 total flights between where airline A has 5 flights, airline B has 3 and airline C has 2, their respective QSIs are 50, 30, and 20 for a total of 100, where A would be expected to carry 50% of passengers in that market, B should carry 30% and C should carry 20%. If instead A carries only 45%, B carries 34%, and C carries 21%, (still for a total of 100% obviously) the largest carrier A has a share gap of -5, B has a share gap of +4, and C has a share gap of +1. In this case, B, although not the largest carrier, has the highest share gap and is the one outperforming the most, and is what I am curious about when it comes to AA vs. DL in JFK-LAX.

If AA has the highest share gap in the market, then essentially slcdeltarumd11's subjective statement above is correct.


I'm well versed on QSI and the derived gap to FMS, but haven't yet seen any concrete statement that AA has the highest market share gap in the transcon and is thus the market leader - even a run of the mill MIDT passenger comparison to an off the shelf QSI database that virtually any corporate airline employee would have access to. Frankly I'd be shocked if that were the case. I'll try to dig it up but recall on either an AA or DL earnings call hearing that DL was the leader as far as gap to fair market share was concerned on the transcon (LAXJFK specifically), measured both by passengers and revenue. Again even that concrete of a statement is subjective as each of the US3 use their own dynamic and routinely internally tweaked flavor of QSI and thus FMS. They aren't buying the third party versions off the shelf and viewing them as absolute truth.
 
afcjets
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Thu Mar 01, 2018 1:07 am

winginit wrote:

I'm well versed on QSI and the derived gap to FMS, but haven't yet seen any concrete statement that AA has the highest market share gap in the transcon and is thus the market leader. Frankly I'd be shocked if that were the case. I'll try to dig it up but recall on either an AA or DL earnings call hearing that DL was the leader as far as gap to fair market share was concerned on the transcon (LAXJFK specifically), measured both by passengers and revenue. Again even that concrete of a statement is subjective as each of the US3 use their own dynamic and routinely internally tweaked flavor of QSI and thus FMS. They aren't buying the third party versions off the shelf and viewing them as absolute truth.


That would be great, that is why I posted. I was definitely thinking DL was getting more than their fair share at the expense of AA. In the late 1980s and 1990s, no one could come close to the level of service AA offered in this market, except MGM Grand Air, which was no doubt the catalyst for AA's then new Flagship three class domestic product on an all Luxury Liner fleet. (Pan Am and TW did have three classes though on these flights too because of their intl JFK hubs) Things slowly went downhill after they replaced the leather/lambswool seats (which in all fairness would look dated today) in F/J with cloth and eventually painted over the Luxury Liner and Luxury Jet branding on their airplanes, largely though to reflect the new realities of the industry as a whole. No more caviar, no more salad/cheese/dessert carts, port wines, pewter plates etc. Not that DL has today either, but DL now has almost all widebodies and 9 flights per day is still plenty to compete with AA. DL's J seat on the 767 and A330 on the side is almost as private as AA's F marketed seat. I personally would rather fly Delta today in J than AA in F in this market, even if the price were the same because I think Delta is a much better airline now so I can totally see DL outperforming AA in share gap. I bet DL's soft product in J is better than AA's in F too.
Last edited by afcjets on Thu Mar 01, 2018 1:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Antarius
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Thu Mar 01, 2018 1:18 am

commavia wrote:
Antarius wrote:
AA and DL are not competing for identical markets. There is some overlap in the paid J section, AA has the upper hand offering F and the corporate contracts that come with it and DL has the upper hand in terms of total passengers. AA does not market fares via JFK for connections. their LAX/SFO-JFO strategy is based purely on O&D. Building a LAX-JFK-xyz requires a multi-segment itinerary and it is priced as 2 one ways. AA will route passengers via ORD or PHL (or even DFW/PHX) for connections.


In general, I agree with the point that AA and Delta have different strategies for approaching the JFK-LAX market, with AA clearly going for yield over volume and heavily emphasizing premium corporate traffic.

That said, it is, respectfully, simply not true that AA does not market connections on LAX-JFK. AA will happily sell lots of connections on these flights, including connections from LAX across the Atlantic over JFK, and from JFK across the Pacific over LAX.


My apologies - I meant domestic connections. You can connect to TATL or TPAC flights
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN DEN DOH BLR MAA KTM YYZ MEX
 
tphuang
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:11 am

afcjets wrote:
winginit wrote:

I'm well versed on QSI and the derived gap to FMS, but haven't yet seen any concrete statement that AA has the highest market share gap in the transcon and is thus the market leader. Frankly I'd be shocked if that were the case. I'll try to dig it up but recall on either an AA or DL earnings call hearing that DL was the leader as far as gap to fair market share was concerned on the transcon (LAXJFK specifically), measured both by passengers and revenue. Again even that concrete of a statement is subjective as each of the US3 use their own dynamic and routinely internally tweaked flavor of QSI and thus FMS. They aren't buying the third party versions off the shelf and viewing them as absolute truth.


That would be great, that is why I posted. I was definitely thinking DL was getting more than their fair share at the expense of AA. In the late 1980s and 1990s, no one could come close to the level of service AA offered in this market, except MGM Grand Air, which was no doubt the catalyst for AA's then new Flagship three class domestic product on an all Luxury Liner fleet. (Pan Am and TW did have three classes though on these flights too because of their intl JFK hubs) Things slowly went downhill after they replaced the leather/lambswool seats (which in all fairness would look dated today) in F/J with cloth and eventually painted over the Luxury Liner and Luxury Jet branding on their airplanes, largely though to reflect the new realities of the industry as a whole. No more caviar, no more salad/cheese/dessert carts, port wines, pewter plates etc. Not that DL has today either, but DL now has almost all widebodies and 9 flights per day is still plenty to compete with AA. DL's J seat on the 767 and A330 on the side is almost as private as AA's F marketed seat. I personally would rather fly Delta today in J than AA in F in this market, even if the price were the same because I think Delta is a much better airline now so I can totally see DL outperforming AA in share gap. I bet DL's soft product in J is better than AA's in F too.


The market apparently does not think AA's F seat is the same as DL's J seat or else AA would not have such a huge RASM advantage over rest of the market that does not get explained away just by it's high F/J layout. And going by FT forum comments, the opinions are wide ranging also.

Also, the gap in average fare between AA and the DL/B6 on JFK-LAX has stayed fairly stable in the recent quarters, so I don't see where is this narrative that DL is somehow capturing corporate contract from AA coming from?
 
afcjets
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:40 am

tphuang wrote:

The market apparently does not think AA's F seat is the same as DL's J seat or else AA would not have such a huge RASM advantage over rest of the market that does not get explained away just by it's high F/J layout. And going by FT forum comments, the opinions are wide ranging also.

Also, the gap in average fare between AA and the DL/B6 on JFK-LAX has stayed fairly stable in the recent quarters, so I don't see where is this narrative that DL is somehow capturing corporate contract from AA coming from?


I think AA's RASM advantage is more a reflection of that fact that 30% of their ASMs are F/J vs. 10-12% at DL. That is almost triple, how huge is their RASM advantage? If you also include Y+ which is sold to non status FFs at full Y fare or as a monetary upgrade, 65% of the ASMs at AA are F, J, or Y+ vs. approximately only 25% at DL.

I never said DL is capturing AA's corporate contracts, I merely responded to a post that I disagreed they are not competing for them. Nonetheless if the second largest carrier (DL) has a greater share gap than the largest carrier (AA) as mentioned above in terms of both passengers and revenue, a significant portion of that gap advantage is most likely coming from the largest player, and in terms of revenue would reflect a higher yield, which is what contract revenue is assumed to be.
 
tphuang
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:33 am

afcjets wrote:
tphuang wrote:

The market apparently does not think AA's F seat is the same as DL's J seat or else AA would not have such a huge RASM advantage over rest of the market that does not get explained away just by it's high F/J layout. And going by FT forum comments, the opinions are wide ranging also.

Also, the gap in average fare between AA and the DL/B6 on JFK-LAX has stayed fairly stable in the recent quarters, so I don't see where is this narrative that DL is somehow capturing corporate contract from AA coming from?


I think AA's RASM advantage is more a reflection of that fact that 30% of their ASMs are F/J vs. 10-12% at DL. That is almost triple, how huge is their RASM advantage? If you also include Y+ which is sold to non status FFs at full Y fare or as a monetary upgrade, 65% of the ASMs at AA are F, J, or Y+ vs. approximately only 25% at DL.

I never said DL is capturing AA's corporate contracts, I merely responded to a post that I disagreed they are not competing for them. Nonetheless if the second largest carrier (DL) has a greater share gap than the largest carrier (AA) as mentioned above in terms of both passengers and revenue, a significant portion of that gap advantage is most likely coming from the largest player, and in terms of revenue would reflect a higher yield, which is what contract revenue is assumed to be.


The heavy F/J layout is definitely a large part of it. AA is normally over 600 and DL is in the high 300s. So that's a large gap even for that type of layout. I'm not sure how to define which one is larger. DL has the largest market share in most quarters. AA is normally 3rd in market share in this route. I agree with most people here about the different approach between AA and DL.
 
jfk777
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Thu Mar 01, 2018 12:50 pm

afcjets wrote:
Antarius wrote:

AA and DL are not competing for identical markets. There is some overlap in the paid J section, AA has the upper hand offering F and the corporate contracts that come with it and DL has the upper hand in terms of total passengers. AA does not market fares via JFK for connections. their LAX/SFO-JFO strategy is based purely on O&D. Building a LAX-JFK-xyz requires a multi-segment itinerary and it is priced as 2 one ways. AA will route passengers via ORD or PHL (or even DFW/PHX) for connections.

AA may have more revenue per passenger by virtue of their distribution while has more total revenue (projecting, not sure). But they aren't going at it head to head in a lot of ways, so comparing the two doesn't yield too much value, IMO.


They are both competing for paid J and high yielding Y and Y+ upgrades (both offering free alcohol and upgraded meals in Y+ and even represents half the Y cabin on AA), AA just no longer cares about carrying the most passengers with only 36 regular coach seats per jet. Also, DL is definitely calling on AA's corporate accounts, even the ones who have staff who can only fly F where both F and J are offered, because not all employees/actors have that in their contracts and contracts are not permanent. Besides, Delta One markets it as an F like product for the price of J (hence the One in Delta One), and not to mention the seat that AA sells as F, is actually a J seat.

Just to clarify, when I mention connections in the QSI example above, I am talking about connections that exist within the O&D (i.e JFK-ORD-LAX), not beyond the O&D like LAX-JFK-BOS. But you are correct since AA does not market domestic connections via JFK (barring some Hawaii flights), they preserve more for the local market which would affect their share gap in a positive way.


The AA First Class seat on the A321 T is seat used in Business Class by AA and Cathay Pacific on their 777-300ER planes. Its perfect for a 6 hour transcon flight, a 777 First Class seat or suite would not fit in an A321.
 
afcjets
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:52 pm

winginit wrote:
afcjets wrote:
I think a total game changer will be when DL puts the Delta One Suite on this route, which I think is likely to happen at some point.


I think that's exceptionally unlikely and doubt it would be a game-changer even if it did happen. Even with the strongest headwind in the world JFKLAX is only 6 hours and 45 minutes whereas the Delta One suite (and other competitive suite offerings a la the ME3, etc.) cater to true long haul services in excess of 13 hours for obvious reasons (with the exception of LHR).



The reason I believe it is inevitable is because I think DL will eventually install the Delta One Suite on all their widebodies, unless they retrofit some back just for domestic /Hawaii with standard F seats, similar to what UA did. IIRC, they already have plans to install it on at least some 767s. These suites don't even appear to take up that much space, how many seats would they lose by having the suite replace existing Delta One seats? It is also obviously much more efficient to not have a sub-fleet of a/c types where some have the suite and some don't.


NateGreat wrote:
DL777200LR wrote:

JFK-TLV is rumored to be an A350 at some point, and the current A330 rotates through LAX so that might happen with the A350 as well.


DL starts LAX-PVG in July, so possibly. I would love to see at least one of the JFK-LHR-JFK get the A350 at some point.


SYD-LAX-JFK-LHR with the A350 would mean DL would have the only suite in three of the world's most high profile markets, and in markets where they are not considered #1 (if you count JFK-LAX by frequency.) Ironically the timing of their current schedule in SYD-LAX-JFK-LHR-JFK-LAX-SYD makes this a perfect rotation too, including both directions between JFK and LAX at peak times, but I still doubt it will happen, at least anytime soon.
Last edited by afcjets on Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
afcjets
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:58 pm

delete
 
ba319-131
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:15 pm

Flown the AA 321T product in F a few times, happy with it, a nicer amenity kit would be nice.
111,732,733,734,735,736,73G,738,739,7M8,BBJ,741,742,743,744,752,753,762,763,764,772,77L,773,77W,L15,D10,30,40,AB3,AB6,A312,313,318,319,320,20N,321,332,333,342,343,345,346,388,CS1,CS3,I86,154,SSJ,CRJ,CR7,CR9,145,170,175,220
 
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TransWorldOne
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:59 pm

afcjets wrote:
winginit wrote:
afcjets wrote:
I think a total game changer will be when DL puts the Delta One Suite on this route, which I think is likely to happen at some point.


I think that's exceptionally unlikely and doubt it would be a game-changer even if it did happen. Even with the strongest headwind in the world JFKLAX is only 6 hours and 45 minutes whereas the Delta One suite (and other competitive suite offerings a la the ME3, etc.) cater to true long haul services in excess of 13 hours for obvious reasons (with the exception of LHR).



The reason I believe it is inevitable is because I think DL will eventually install the Delta One Suite on all their widebodies, unless they retrofit some back just for domestic /Hawaii with standard F seats, similar to what UA did. IIRC, they already have plans to install it on at least some 767s. These suites don't even appear to take up that much space, how many seats would they lose by having the suite replace existing Delta One seats? It is also obviously much more efficient to not have a sub-fleet of a/c types where some have the suite and some don't.


NateGreat wrote:
DL777200LR wrote:

JFK-TLV is rumored to be an A350 at some point, and the current A330 rotates through LAX so that might happen with the A350 as well.


DL starts LAX-PVG in July, so possibly. I would love to see at least one of the JFK-LHR-JFK get the A350 at some point.


SYD-LAX-JFK-LHR with the A350 would mean DL would have the only suite in three of the world's most high profile markets, and in markets where they are not considered #1 (if you count JFK-LAX by frequency.) Ironically the timing of their current schedule in SYD-LAX-JFK-LHR-JFK-LAX-SYD makes this a perfect rotation too, including both directions between JFK and LAX at peak times, but I still doubt it will happen, at least anytime soon.


Wait. DL has plans to install Delta One suites on 767's? I was not aware of this. Source?
 
afcjets
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:07 pm

TransWorldOne wrote:

Wait. DL has plans to install Delta One suites on 767's? I was not aware of this. Source?


Really? You posted on that exact topic on a.net....

viewtopic.php?t=1376567
 
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TransWorldOne
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:22 am

afcjets wrote:
TransWorldOne wrote:

Wait. DL has plans to install Delta One suites on 767's? I was not aware of this. Source?


Really? You posted on that exact topic on a.net....

viewtopic.php?t=1376567


You're right. I guess I'm getting old! I knew the 777's were confirmed to be getting D1 suites but I guess I had forgotten that all DL wide body's would be getting the suites. It will be interesting to see what the product looks like on a narrow 767!
 
winginit
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Fri Mar 02, 2018 3:32 am

tphuang wrote:
The heavy F/J layout is definitely a large part of it. AA is normally over 600 and DL is in the high 300s. So that's a large gap even for that type of layout. I'm not sure how to define which one is larger. DL has the largest market share in most quarters. AA is normally 3rd in market share in this route. I agree with most people here about the different approach between AA and DL.


Before we latch onto those finger in the wind fare estimates as a proper analysis let's put some proper numbers behind it:

T100, YE 3Q2017 (most recent data available)

Average Fare: LAXJFK (nondirectional average, all cabins as T100 isn't split by cabin)

AA: $359 (14.5 yield)
DL: $295 (11.9 yield)

So AA has a 22% revenue premium measured by average ticket value, which is notable but likely exclusively explained by their premium cabin percentage.
 
tphuang
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:50 am

winginit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
The heavy F/J layout is definitely a large part of it. AA is normally over 600 and DL is in the high 300s. So that's a large gap even for that type of layout. I'm not sure how to define which one is larger. DL has the largest market share in most quarters. AA is normally 3rd in market share in this route. I agree with most people here about the different approach between AA and DL.


Before we latch onto those finger in the wind fare estimates as a proper analysis let's put some proper numbers behind it:

T100, YE 3Q2017 (most recent data available)

Average Fare: LAXJFK (nondirectional average, all cabins as T100 isn't split by cabin)

AA: $359 (14.5 yield)
DL: $295 (11.9 yield)

So AA has a 22% revenue premium measured by average ticket value, which is notable but likely exclusively explained by their premium cabin percentage.

I'm not sure exactly how you get to that average fare, but I use https://www.transtats.bts.gov/Tables.as ... n%20Survey

And the numbers I have (which filters out award ticket and non-revs) matches the numbers here
https://data.transportation.gov/Aviatio ... /tfrh-tu9e

I'm really curious about how to get the T100 fares. Can you point me to the link? Even in a private message, it would be good.
 
afcjets
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:49 pm

jfk777 wrote:
The AA First Class seat on the A321 T is seat used in Business Class by AA and Cathay Pacific on their 777-300ER planes. Its perfect for a 6 hour transcon flight, a 777 First Class seat or suite would not fit in an A321.


Not only would it fit in the same 1x1 configuration they have on the 32T now in F, the aisle on the 32T would be wider in F than the aisles on the 77W in F. The 77W cabin is 19 feet wide and the 32B cabin is 12 feet wide. The 77W has twice the number of F seats and aisles per row yet it's cabin width is less than twice that of the 32B (19ft < 24Ft).


TransWorldOne wrote:
You're right. I guess I'm getting old! I knew the 777's were confirmed to be getting D1 suites but I guess I had forgotten that all DL wide body's would be getting the suites. It will be interesting to see what the product looks like on a narrow 767!

I wonder how long it will take AA to respond once DL has all J suites on this route.
 
Antarius
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:52 pm

afcjets wrote:
I wonder how long it will take AA to respond once DL has all J suites on this route.


I don't see it mattering much. It isn't like DL is installing the Etihad Residence on board. It would be a fairly comparable product albeit one has a sliding partition. I mean, airlines like CX have open suites in their intl F.. it isn't that much of a deal.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN DEN DOH BLR MAA KTM YYZ MEX
 
grbauc
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Re: AA vs DL JFK-LAX

Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:24 am

commavia wrote:
Antarius wrote:
AA and DL are not competing for identical markets. There is some overlap in the paid J section, AA has the upper hand offering F and the corporate contracts that come with it and DL has the upper hand in terms of total passengers. AA does not market fares via JFK for connections. their LAX/SFO-JFO strategy is based purely on O&D. Building a LAX-JFK-xyz requires a multi-segment itinerary and it is priced as 2 one ways. AA will route passengers via ORD or PHL (or even DFW/PHX) for connections.


In general, I agree with the point that AA and Delta have different strategies for approaching the JFK-LAX market, with AA clearly going for yield over volume and heavily emphasizing premium corporate traffic.

That said, it is, respectfully, simply not true that AA does not market connections on LAX-JFK. AA will happily sell lots of connections on these flights, including connections from LAX across the Atlantic over JFK, and from JFK across the Pacific over LAX.



Yep I route LAX JFK to the lots of places. CLT MIA and then go even more places from there. I do it so i can get premium seating if I can make one of the times that AA Widebodies go tru DFW or MIA from LAX.

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