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mcogator
Topic Author
Posts: 573
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:51 am

Capacity to return to Brazil?

Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:19 pm

According to the MCO news department, Brazil is bouncing back and their economy is growing now. The article might be Orlando centric, but it's safe to assume that the majority of markets should increase as well. Are there many new routes planned, and/or a resumption of cut frequencies/routes/capacity? By November, MCO will serve 7 destinations in Brazil with the addition of BSB in July, and FOR in November. Any chance DL will add some flights to MCO, or is it now too saturated? What about other US and international markets? Brazil is a huge country, and a bounce back of their economy should be a boon for aviation.

https://orlandoairports.net/press/2018/ ... l-airport/
ORLANDO, FL. – Brazilian travelers are coming to Orlando and Central Florida in record numbers. Bouncing back from its nationwide economic hardships, Brazilian travel to Central Florida is poised to reach an all-time high in 2018. A Reuters’ poll in October forecast that Brazil’s GDP would grow from 0.7 percent in 2017 to 2.3 percent in 2018, citing growth in local demand, continuing improvement in household spending and increases in investments and capital expenditure.

“Brazil is back! And this resurgence from our third largest international market brings a welcomed boost to the local economy,” says Phil Brown, Chief Executive Officer of the Greater Orlando Aviation Authority. “With the recent additional seats from Brazil, the projected economic impact for 2018 is nearly $1 billion, up 111% from 2013.”

GOL’s new service along with LATAM’s upcoming service to Fortaleza, and capacity increases by Azul and Delta, have helped the number of nonstop seats from Brazil to Orlando reach an all-time high of 486,000 for 2018.
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RJNUT
Posts: 1912
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Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:26 pm

the visas continue to be a pain to obtain for US citizens. that inhibits a lot of impulse and vacation travel
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:24 pm

RJNUT wrote:
the visas continue to be a pain to obtain for US citizens. that inhibits a lot of impulse and vacation travel


I'd be interested to see if Brazil issuing e-visas has any effect on this. Of course, it would also be interesting to see how much more convenient the e-visa process is compared to before.
 
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gatibosgru
Posts: 1783
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:48 pm

Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:30 pm

ShinyAndChrome wrote:
RJNUT wrote:
the visas continue to be a pain to obtain for US citizens. that inhibits a lot of impulse and vacation travel


I'd be interested to see if Brazil issuing e-visas has any effect on this. Of course, it would also be interesting to see how much more convenient the e-visa process is compared to before.


Should be much easier and cheaper at this point.
http://www.vfsglobal.com/brazil-evisa/
https://thepointsguy.com/2018/01/brail- ... ble-today/

I think it is much more a matter of Brazilians visiting elsewhere rather than US citizens visiting Brazil due to the economy.

Orlando is a fantastic indicator though!
@DadCelo
 
C010T3
Posts: 1956
Joined: Wed Jul 19, 2006 5:48 am

Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:34 pm

Well, I guess that the discussion is centered in the US-Brazil market, considering how the Latin America-Brazil and the Europe-Brazil markets were not very affected by the crisis.

RJNUT wrote:
the visas continue to be a pain to obtain for US citizens. that inhibits a lot of impulse and vacation travel


Well, I guess you did not get the memo:
http://vfsglobal.com/brazil-evisa/
viewtopic.php?t=1384815
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:41 pm

gatibosgru wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:
RJNUT wrote:
the visas continue to be a pain to obtain for US citizens. that inhibits a lot of impulse and vacation travel


I'd be interested to see if Brazil issuing e-visas has any effect on this. Of course, it would also be interesting to see how much more convenient the e-visa process is compared to before.


Should be much easier and cheaper at this point.
http://www.vfsglobal.com/brazil-evisa/
https://thepointsguy.com/2018/01/brail- ... ble-today/

I think it is much more a matter of Brazilians visiting elsewhere rather than US citizens visiting Brazil due to the economy.

Orlando is a fantastic indicator though!


True. I'd imagine Brazil-Orlando tends to skew heavily Brazilian.
 
RJNUT
Posts: 1912
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 1999 1:58 am

Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:16 am

C010T3 wrote:
Well, I guess that the discussion is centered in the US-Brazil market, considering how the Latin America-Brazil and the Europe-Brazil markets were not very affected by the crisis.

RJNUT wrote:
the visas continue to be a pain to obtain for US citizens. that inhibits a lot of impulse and vacation travel


Well, I guess you did not get the memo:
http://vfsglobal.com/brazil-evisa/
viewtopic.php?t=1384815

No I did not get that memo but thanks, it will make a world of difference in travel patterns to Brazil from those countries listed
 
incitatus
Posts: 3394
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Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:55 am

I am optimistic in the long run. But for the next couple of years these airlines adding flights from Florida to Brazil are just chasing losses. Sure, there is demand to fill up an airplane with tourists to MCO that want a cheap fare. One can sell all seats and make no money. The economy started to bounce back but it is far from booming. I smell over-capacity: a great time to travel cheap, but services are not sustainable. By the end of 2019 I expect less service in the market than what we will have late this year.
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gatibosgru
Posts: 1783
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:48 pm

Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:25 am

incitatus wrote:
I am optimistic in the long run. But for the next couple of years these airlines adding flights from Florida to Brazil are just chasing losses. Sure, there is demand to fill up an airplane with tourists to MCO that want a cheap fare. One can sell all seats and make no money. The economy started to bounce back but it is far from booming. I smell over-capacity: a great time to travel cheap, but services are not sustainable. By the end of 2019 I expect less service in the market than what we will have late this year.


Cheap fares are definitely only coming from the Brazil side. In 2016 it was dirty cheap to fly from the US to Brazil, and now the fares are very high.
@DadCelo
 
Jomar777
Posts: 583
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:45 am

Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:54 am

RJNUT wrote:
the visas continue to be a pain to obtain for US citizens. that inhibits a lot of impulse and vacation travel


Although the e-VISA process might help, let's face it: Brazil operates a reciprocity system.

In other words, if US Citizens want less pain to obtain Brazilian VISAs, the US will have also to reduce the pain for Brazilian Citizens to obtain US VISAs.
 
LPSHobby
Posts: 454
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Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:33 am

Latam Brasil will start BOS and LAS, Gol will start FOR-MIA and FOR-MCO
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5838
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Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:43 am

C010T3 wrote:
Well, I guess that the discussion is centered in the US-Brazil market, considering how the Latin America-Brazil and the Europe-Brazil markets were not very affected by the crisis.


How is that true? For instance MAD-GRU (GRU's busiest European route) lost passengers in both 2016 and 2017.

MAD-GRU 2015: 686,821
MAD-GRU 2016: 675,533
MAD-GRU 2017: 638,846

I think what has saved GRU from Europe is that LATAM now is offering competitive connections Europe-GRU-XXX.
 
winGl3t
Posts: 324
Joined: Sun Dec 11, 2011 3:52 pm

Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:53 pm

LPSHobby wrote:
Latam Brasil will start BOS and LAS, Gol will start FOR-MIA and FOR-MCO


GOL will also start BSB-MCO and BSB-MIA in november
 
MapleLeaf789
Posts: 43
Joined: Thu May 04, 2017 5:55 pm

Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:52 pm

The economy is definitely improving in Brazil, as is much of South America, including Colombia and Chile.

I believe there is a general renewed interest and awareness of travel to South America (from here in Canada too, which has been expanding).

I went to Brazil twice last year and loved it. However, when I speak to people about traveling to Brazil, there is a general perception of an unsafe environment - for the record I had zero problems.

So, while the Brazilian economy is improving, I think for south bound travel there, there is still the perception of safety to overcome.
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Jetty
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Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:18 pm

KL and AF are starting flights to FOR in 2 months.
 
TP001
Posts: 3
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:25 am

Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:28 am

Starting July 1, TAP Air Portugal to add a 3rd daily flight in same days of the week:

LIS-GRU
TP 89 LIS 11:15 GRU 17:30
TP 83 LIS 17:00 GRU 23;00
TP 87 LIS 23:20 GRU 05:20 (Monday, Tuesday, Friday, and Saturday).

GRU-LIS
TP 84 GRU 01:30 LIS 15:20
TP 82 GRU 15:30 LIS 05:20
TP 88 GRU 21:40 LIS 11:30 (Monday, Tuesday, Friday, and Saturday).
 
rrlopes
Posts: 69
Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2009 7:37 pm

Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:02 pm

Jomar777 wrote:
Although the e-VISA process might help, let's face it: Brazil operates a reciprocity system.


The last I heard was that Brazil was also considering changing the federal law that requires it to be reciprocal. If this happens, it'd clear the way to removing the visa requirements for countries like the USA and Canada, among others.
 
winGl3t
Posts: 324
Joined: Sun Dec 11, 2011 3:52 pm

Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:46 pm

TP001 wrote:
Starting July 1, TAP Air Portugal to add a 3rd daily flight in same days of the week:

LIS-GRU
TP 89 LIS 11:15 GRU 17:30
TP 83 LIS 17:00 GRU 23;00
TP 87 LIS 23:20 GRU 05:20 (Monday, Tuesday, Friday, and Saturday).

GRU-LIS
TP 84 GRU 01:30 LIS 15:20
TP 82 GRU 15:30 LIS 05:20
TP 88 GRU 21:40 LIS 11:30 (Monday, Tuesday, Friday, and Saturday).


The new flights are TP 83 and TP 84
 
C010T3
Posts: 1956
Joined: Wed Jul 19, 2006 5:48 am

Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:47 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
C010T3 wrote:
Well, I guess that the discussion is centered in the US-Brazil market, considering how the Latin America-Brazil and the Europe-Brazil markets were not very affected by the crisis.


How is that true? For instance MAD-GRU (GRU's busiest European route) lost passengers in both 2016 and 2017.

MAD-GRU 2015: 686,821
MAD-GRU 2016: 675,533
MAD-GRU 2017: 638,846

I think what has saved GRU from Europe is that LATAM now is offering competitive connections Europe-GRU-XXX.


We are talking about capacity here, not passengers flown. Even if we look at the statistics you presented, that seems harmless compared to the US.
 
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ojjunior
Posts: 1011
Joined: Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:31 am

Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:23 pm

No worries at all over the last years for Brazilians getting the US Visa. Lots of US Nationals from my company said didn't have any problems getting Brazilian Visa either.
Everyone i talk about are now getting US Visa once the perception of the process become more friendly.
The only problem for Brazilians going to US is, was and will always be the same: exchange rate.
A little planning and savings and go search among the endless options and airlines to US.
More crisis or less crisis and a vaste array of daily flights will be in the air.
 
Jomar777
Posts: 583
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:45 am

Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:15 am

rrlopes wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
Although the e-VISA process might help, let's face it: Brazil operates a reciprocity system.


The last I heard was that Brazil was also considering changing the federal law that requires it to be reciprocal. If this happens, it'd clear the way to removing the visa requirements for countries like the USA and Canada, among others.


There are always studies to change the Federal Law o Reciprocity but it ever takes off. It is quite difficult since, should that go away, the Brazilian Government would struggle in setting bilateral agreements with a lot of countries.

Also, this is the law which actually protects Brazilians going abroad for whatever reason since the guarantee that a genuine Brazilian Traveller will not end up being deterred is the risk for that country to have their own travellers deterred in Brazil for the same reasons.

So, this law will not go away any time soon despite constant accessments.
 
Jomar777
Posts: 583
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:45 am

Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:15 am

rrlopes wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
Although the e-VISA process might help, let's face it: Brazil operates a reciprocity system.


The last I heard was that Brazil was also considering changing the federal law that requires it to be reciprocal. If this happens, it'd clear the way to removing the visa requirements for countries like the USA and Canada, among others.


There are always studies to change the Federal Law o Reciprocity but it ever takes off. It is quite difficult since, should that go away, the Brazilian Government would struggle in setting bilateral agreements with a lot of countries.

Also, this is the law which actually protects Brazilians going abroad for whatever reason since the guarantee that a genuine Brazilian Traveller will not end up being deterred is the risk for that country to have their own travellers deterred in Brazil for the same reasons.

So, this law will not go away any time soon despite constant assessments.
 
C010T3
Posts: 1956
Joined: Wed Jul 19, 2006 5:48 am

Re: Capacity to return to Brazil?

Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:24 pm

Reciprocity is a broad concept. It can interpreted in many ways, but has been being used as an excuse not to waive visa requirements unilaterally. There is no impediment for that, but Anti-American activists will always dispute such a move, which is why it will not be adopted.

The introduction of the e-visa was a reasonable compromise. It is a unilateral measure for the most part, since the only country that reciprocates is Australia. In fact, Australia has been offering e-visas to Brazilian long before Brazil reciprocated.

Obtaining the e-visa for Brazil is not complicated. There is no pain. It's not wonder that government is reporting a 70% increase in visa applications from US citizens.

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