Newbiepilot
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:01 pm

WIederling wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Hahahaha, that chart has me laughing. .


you can continue breathing now.
( There has been enough discussion in that other thread already.)

Posting this was tangent the "different basket" thing of deciding on A350 ( as shown in the graphic )
and deciding on A330 and/or MoM type frame for a different fleet decission.

Actually even wider scoped than talked about, see the original article on FG:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-446322/


apropos, take the attribution as what you want to see in it:
https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/968941766782144515


Well this thread is about United. It would be interesting to see if Airbus creates a chart like that with the A330-800 replacing 757-300s and 767-300s.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:32 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
You should know, that max seating is misleading. Go through seatguru and find out the average seating for both, then you find that you are flat out wrong...

I posted every dimension including cabin area and the 787-8 is lower on every count.

You still ignore that the 787 cabin is >90% 9 abreast and the A332 cabin is >90% 8 abreast. Go figure where on average more seats are installed. Also by picking the single, extremely small corner in the market, where 9 abreast A330s are flown you are only deluding yourself.

Newbiepilot wrote:
Revelation wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
If Airbus would want to do a smaller wide body than the A330, they could go back to the A300 fuselage and do a new wing, using the new wing box developed. It is the nearly ideal fuselage profile, combining good passenger volume with good freight capabilities. I do not think that on short to medium haul drag would be the overriding consideration, but OEW would be. Reducing fuel burn by reducing weight would be the main consideration, producing it for a low price the second on. Short time to market the third one.
A right sized engine could be the GEnx-2b. It is the current state of the art.

Together with a super A321 it would squeeze a possible Boeing NMA from above and below.

I love how all these threads wrap around to "put new engine on old airframe no longer in production".
I don't think we're going to see Airbus follow up A330neo with A300neo.


A resigned A300 is about one of the worst ideas I have read in a while.

Fully agree. Worse would only be the idea, that building an optimized short/medium range aircraft from the 788 would be a cheap and small project. Both ideas ignore that all except the fuselage would need to be designed from scratch. We are talking at least about a 77X kind of project scope. New engines, new wings, new gears, new tail.
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
DaufuskieGuy
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:16 pm

GCT64 wrote:
B777LRF wrote:
It might not be an optimised solution, but QR are running a large fleet of 787-8s on DOH-Europe services.


This is the one that interests me and seems to be rarely discussed. QR essentially use their large fleet of 788s as their MOM aircraft and yet appear to me to be the only airline taking that approach. So either QR are smarter and more visionary than all other airlines or are being stupid.


stupid is a little harsh, but the 788 is too much plane for those routes (ditto East Coast TATL). the MOM would be way more suited and among available equipment the 330 is the best choice.
 
marcelh
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:35 pm

DaufuskieGuy wrote:
GCT64 wrote:
B777LRF wrote:
It might not be an optimised solution, but QR are running a large fleet of 787-8s on DOH-Europe services.


This is the one that interests me and seems to be rarely discussed. QR essentially use their large fleet of 788s as their MOM aircraft and yet appear to me to be the only airline taking that approach. So either QR are smarter and more visionary than all other airlines or are being stupid.


stupid is a little harsh, but the 788 is too much plane for those routes (ditto East Coast TATL). the MOM would be way more suited and among available equipment the 330 is the best choice.


They fly them on sectors up to 9 hours and possibly with a lot of cargo. I don't know if that is stil Mom's territory.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:19 pm

zeke wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
The same all applies to an optimized 787-3. It will have 10m less wingspan 75% the fuel capacity, 20% less thrust each side and lighter landing gear due to weights 40-50T lower.


The 783 is a 788 with wingtips that have been cutoff and the same 788 engines that have been derated, it is 8% lighter than a 788. It is nothing like the A300 compared to the A330 difference, the A300 is 28% lighter.

Pretty every post you make further confirms my argument.

The 787-3 was not weight optimised, as you said it had wing tips cut off and the heavy engines derated. It shared a huge amount of parts with the 788 yet it was still planned to be 8% lighter.

So how can you disagree that a fully weight optimised 783 would not be 10% lighter? It would get lighter engines specific to its thrust. The inner wing, wingbox and landing gear will no longer have to be shared with the heavier 788. They can all be made lighter and only an extra 2% would be required to hit my 10% target.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:32 pm

blrsea wrote:
Isn't A300 and A330 fuselage width almost similar? It would make more sense to have let's say, a A330-100 than resurrecting A300, with corresponding reduction in other areas like wingspan, center wingbox, landing gear etc.

The fuselage are near identical. Even the longerons are still in the same spot. So if the A310 centre wingbox jigs were still around in storage they could fit one to the A330 fuselage and it would bolt up and be much lighter than the current wingbox.

If Airbus wanted to make something to fill the role of the A300 they would just use the A330-800 fuselage, tail, nose and systems. Dust off the blueprints for the A310 wingbox and landing gear and fit that. Design a new carbon wing to suit. Fit the same engines developed for the Boeing MOM.

It would be cheaper than a clean sheet.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:45 pm

Image
Here's a nice picture showing the A330 and A300 from underneith. Big differences you can see why the A330 is much heavier. Fuselage wise, cockpit and tail they are the same.

To think the A300 is 25% lighter shows how there is so much weight in the centre section. All that weight saved simply because the maximum takeoff weight is reduced by 30%.

This is why I think the 787-8 can be made lighter.

I also think the Airbus A330 fuselage could live on for another 30 years in a future A300 size and weight class MOM aircraft.
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:06 am

rheinwaldner wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
You should know, that max seating is misleading. Go through seatguru and find out the average seating for both, then you find that you are flat out wrong...

I posted every dimension including cabin area and the 787-8 is lower on every count.

You still ignore that the 787 cabin is >90% 9 abreast and the A332 cabin is >90% 8 abreast. Go figure where on average more seats are installed. Also by picking the single, extremely small corner in the market, where 9 abreast A330s are flown you are only deluding yourself.


The 788s configuration being 9-abreast while the 332 is 8-abreast just means that airlines can, on average, fit denser configurations and utilize floor space more efficiently on the 787, that has no bearing on the exterior dimensions/size of the aircraft, and is certainly not a credible advantage for the A332 as a temporary MOM plane stopgap.
 
strfyr51
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:21 am

Revelation wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
I can’t believe that people still think that United wouldnt order an Airbus. Didn’t they just double down on their 350 order?

It all depends how quickly they want the airplane… There is no 797 it doesn’t even have a name yet

And the history of airlines betting that the shiny new jet would come out of the factory on time and without flaws is pretty bleak.

QR and A320neo, QF and many others with 787, etc. etc. etc.

It seems the only way Boeing can keep UA on side would be via bridge 767s, and that strategy might not be effective.

So, yeah, we very well could see A338s at UA.

Seems there are two MSNs that will be up for grabs real soon! :stirthepot:

you could also see B787-8's at United replacing the B767-300 fleet. Boeing might very well make that deal to keep from being left out in the cold..
 
DaufuskieGuy
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:43 am

marcelh wrote:
DaufuskieGuy wrote:
GCT64 wrote:

This is the one that interests me and seems to be rarely discussed. QR essentially use their large fleet of 788s as their MOM aircraft and yet appear to me to be the only airline taking that approach. So either QR are smarter and more visionary than all other airlines or are being stupid.


stupid is a little harsh, but the 788 is too much plane for those routes (ditto East Coast TATL). the MOM would be way more suited and among available equipment the 330 is the best choice.


They fly them on sectors up to 9 hours and possibly with a lot of cargo. I don't know if that is stil Mom's territory.


it's probably not from what I've read, but DOH Europe routes are more in the 5-7 hour range
 
Airlinepilot129
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:11 am

After speaking with a few people I know at UA corporate, I've been told to expect an order from Boeing and/or Embraer. I firmly believe there will be no additional Airbus orders. If United wanted the A330NEO or the A321NEO, they would have ordered already. Hell, they'd likely have ordered the A321-200. They ruled out the relevant Airbus airplanes some time ago, and any new information stated is just restating the original suspicion that was given between 2016-2017. It's also worth mentioning that Airbus and American Airlines are joined at the hip via a A Most-Favoured-Customer Clause, so they cannot offer United a competitive price for their airplanes. Additionally, it's worth mentioning that any order for the A330-800 would make that carrier the only customer, which is not cheap in the slightest. United is all about getting their expansive airframes cheap.

Here are a few quotes from an interview with Scott Kirby:
"We're not going to be a Boeing airline or an Airbus airline, we're going to be whoever gives us the best deal."

"Airbus just can't give us a competitive price today," says Kirby on narrowbodies.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... rs-441837/
Houston, TX
Ruston, LA
 
phoenix123
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:40 am

Airlinepilot129 wrote:
After speaking with a few people I know at UA corporate, I've been told to expect an order from Boeing and/or Embraer. I firmly believe there will be no additional Airbus orders. If United wanted the A330NEO or the A321NEO, they would have ordered already. Hell, they'd likely have ordered the A321-200. They ruled out the relevant Airbus airplanes some time ago, and any new information stated is just restating the original suspicion that was given between 2016-2017. It's also worth mentioning that Airbus and American Airlines are joined at the hip via a A Most-Favoured-Customer Clause, so they cannot offer United a competitive price for their airplanes. Additionally, it's worth mentioning that any order for the A330-800 would make that carrier the only customer, which is not cheap in the slightest. United is all about getting their expansive airframes cheap.

Here are a few quotes from an interview with Scott Kirby:
"We're not going to be a Boeing airline or an Airbus airline, we're going to be whoever gives us the best deal."

"Airbus just can't give us a competitive price today," says Kirby on narrowbodies.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... rs-441837/


I wouldn't take that Clause to the heart. It didn't stop Delta from recent Airbus deals.
 
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aerolimani
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 6:25 am

Airlinepilot129 wrote:
Additionally, it's worth mentioning that any order for the A330-800 would make that carrier the only customer, which is not cheap in the slightest. United is all about getting their expansive airframes cheap.

Hawaiian still claims to be taking the A338. Not that being one of only two customers is much better than being an only customer.
 
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neomax
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:09 am

Airlinepilot129 wrote:
After speaking with a few people I know at UA corporate, I've been told to expect an order from Boeing and/or Embraer. I firmly believe there will be no additional Airbus orders. If United wanted the A330NEO or the A321NEO, they would have ordered already. Hell, they'd likely have ordered the A321-200. They ruled out the relevant Airbus airplanes some time ago, and any new information stated is just restating the original suspicion that was given between 2016-2017. It's also worth mentioning that Airbus and American Airlines are joined at the hip via a A Most-Favoured-Customer Clause, so they cannot offer United a competitive price for their airplanes. Additionally, it's worth mentioning that any order for the A330-800 would make that carrier the only customer, which is not cheap in the slightest. United is all about getting their expansive airframes cheap.

Here are a few quotes from an interview with Scott Kirby:
"We're not going to be a Boeing airline or an Airbus airline, we're going to be whoever gives us the best deal."

"Airbus just can't give us a competitive price today," says Kirby on narrowbodies.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... rs-441837/


If there is one thing I have learned in all my years in this industry, it's to never to say never.

Additionally: Embraer!?! Where did Embraer come from? If Embraer was a part of this conversation, then what you heard was not referring to a widebody order, it was referring to a narrowbody order. On top of that, Boeing backing out of the 767 deal only gives more credence to the A338 theory, which by far makes the most sense if they're not planning on getting 787's.
 
WIederling
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:43 am

RJMAZ wrote:
So how can you disagree that a fully weight optimised 783 would not be 10% lighter? It would get lighter engines specific to its thrust. The inner wing, wingbox and landing gear will no longer have to be shared with the heavier 788. They can all be made lighter and only an extra 2% would be required to hit my 10% target.


The 788 lacks further orders and is a problematic child due to its differences to (and unported optimizations from) the 789/10.

What I could imagine is a "784" based on 787 core family systems with a slimmed down wing and structure about 788
capacity or slightly smaller. Voila the MoM as framed by rumors.
Murphy is an optimist
 
WIederling
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:46 am

JustSomeDood wrote:
The 788s configuration being 9-abreast while the 332 is 8-abreast just means that airlines can, on average, fit denser configurations and utilize floor space more efficiently on the 787, that has no bearing on the exterior dimensions/size of the aircraft, and is certainly not a credible advantage for the A332 as a temporary MOM plane stopgap.


Easily "obvious" but not necessarily correct:

compares Qatar 332 to 788:
viewtopic.php?t=556303

A332 would allow to go to 9 abreast Air Transat style ( 345 in 2 class. possible: 406 1 class, more than any 788 layout would allow).
Murphy is an optimist
 
mjoelnir
Topic Author
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:51 am

aerolimani wrote:
Airlinepilot129 wrote:
Additionally, it's worth mentioning that any order for the A330-800 would make that carrier the only customer, which is not cheap in the slightest. United is all about getting their expansive airframes cheap.

Hawaiian still claims to be taking the A338. Not that being one of only two customers is much better than being an only customer.


How many customers use 767-400 for example? How much trouble was that?

The A330-800 will have a lot of commonality with the A330-900, everything, but a shorter fuselage. It is a very simple shrink. An A330-900 spare parts depot will be able to supply the needs of an A330-800.

There is more difference between a 787-8 and 787-9 or a 767-400 and a 767-300ER.
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:11 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
Airlinepilot129 wrote:
Additionally, it's worth mentioning that any order for the A330-800 would make that carrier the only customer, which is not cheap in the slightest. United is all about getting their expansive airframes cheap.

Hawaiian still claims to be taking the A338. Not that being one of only two customers is much better than being an only customer.


How many customers use 767-400 for example? How much trouble was that?

The A330-800 will have a lot of commonality with the A330-900, everything, but a shorter fuselage. It is a very simple shrink. An A330-900 spare parts depot will be able to supply the needs of an A330-800.

There is more difference between a 787-8 and 787-9 or a 767-400 and a 767-300ER.


And... which lessor or financier could be persuaded to give reasonable rates for an aircraft model that has had all of 6 orders thus far, half a year before EIS and nearly 4 years after launch?
 
mjoelnir
Topic Author
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:19 pm

JustSomeDood wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
Hawaiian still claims to be taking the A338. Not that being one of only two customers is much better than being an only customer.


How many customers use 767-400 for example? How much trouble was that?

The A330-800 will have a lot of commonality with the A330-900, everything, but a shorter fuselage. It is a very simple shrink. An A330-900 spare parts depot will be able to supply the needs of an A330-800.

There is more difference between a 787-8 and 787-9 or a 767-400 and a 767-300ER.


And... which lessor or financier could be persuaded to give reasonable rates for an aircraft model that has had all of 6 orders thus far, half a year before EIS and nearly 4 years after launch?


Airbus? Airbus has a leasing division like also Boeing. Or Airbus does a guarantied price for a return after x years.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:00 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
JustSomeDood wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

How many customers use 767-400 for example? How much trouble was that?

The A330-800 will have a lot of commonality with the A330-900, everything, but a shorter fuselage. It is a very simple shrink. An A330-900 spare parts depot will be able to supply the needs of an A330-800.

There is more difference between a 787-8 and 787-9 or a 767-400 and a 767-300ER.


And... which lessor or financier could be persuaded to give reasonable rates for an aircraft model that has had all of 6 orders thus far, half a year before EIS and nearly 4 years after launch?


Airbus? Airbus has a leasing division like also Boeing. Or Airbus does a guarantied price for a return after x years.


That means Airbus is accepting more financial risk than financing and leasing companies will. More risk means higher rates making the plane more expensive. Boeing did the same thing with the 757-300 and 717.

Airbus may do it, but if they have to sell the A330-800 at a price lower than the A330-900 and since airlines won’t pay as much for a smaller plane despite production costs being similar and have to take more risk financing the plane, this is the type of deal that may lose money. Development costs may be low, but they still exist including costs of all the flight testing. Add to that money that has to be allocated for financing the planes because banks won’t do so. It makes the business case very difficult. Not impossible but difficult enough that the high volume easy to finance 787 may be competitive on price.
 
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NeBaNi
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:22 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
Airlinepilot129 wrote:
Additionally, it's worth mentioning that any order for the A330-800 would make that carrier the only customer, which is not cheap in the slightest. United is all about getting their expansive airframes cheap.

Hawaiian still claims to be taking the A338. Not that being one of only two customers is much better than being an only customer.


How many customers use 767-400 for example? How much trouble was that?

Oh no, I hope more airlines take the A330-800, if only to prevent countless A.net threads in the future debating whether Airbus designed the A338 solely for HA if it ends up being the sole operator. :banghead: :lol:

On a more serious note though, I think the A330-800 would be less trouble to develop than the 767-400ER. The A338, although a re-engined program, is a straight shrink of the A339, so its already piggybacking off the development costs of its larger, more successful family member. The 764 in contrast, was a standalone program.
 
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yowgangsta
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:42 pm

columba wrote:
A330Neo could be a stop gap solution until the NMA is ready

stop gap solutions almost certainly always involve mature aircraft - possibly used aircraft that are relatively cheap and easy/quick to acquire. No reason to be the launch customer for an aircraft, and then be burdened with reselling an aircraft that no one seems to want. No benefit and cost inhibit for a short-term/stop-gap solution.
 
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iahcsr
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:46 pm

neomax wrote:
Airlinepilot129 wrote:
After speaking with a few people I know at UA corporate, I've been told to expect an order from Boeing and/or Embraer. I firmly believe there will be no additional Airbus orders. If United wanted the A330NEO or the A321NEO, they would have ordered already. Hell, they'd likely have ordered the A321-200. They ruled out the relevant Airbus airplanes some time ago, and any new information stated is just restating the original suspicion that was given between 2016-2017. It's also worth mentioning that Airbus and American Airlines are joined at the hip via a A Most-Favoured-Customer Clause, so they cannot offer United a competitive price for their airplanes. Additionally, it's worth mentioning that any order for the A330-800 would make that carrier the only customer, which is not cheap in the slightest. United is all about getting their expansive airframes cheap.

Here are a few quotes from an interview with Scott Kirby:
"We're not going to be a Boeing airline or an Airbus airline, we're going to be whoever gives us the best deal."

"Airbus just can't give us a competitive price today," says Kirby on narrowbodies.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... rs-441837/


If there is one thing I have learned in all my years in this industry, it's to never to say never.

Additionally: Embraer!?! Where did Embraer come from? If Embraer was a part of this conversation, then what you heard was not referring to a widebody order, it was referring to a narrowbody order. On top of that, Boeing backing out of the 767 deal only gives more credence to the A338 theory, which by far makes the most sense if they're not planning on getting 787's.

There wasn’t ever any 767 deal for B to back out of, they were simply asked for a price on 76 passenger craft. Said price was likely given and customer said ‘thank you, but we’ll pass on that’. It’s possible B might offer a good deal on 788s instead, but that becomes a problem down the road of what to do with them if/when the 79 arrives. Is the 788 a viable F conversion? I thought that was impractical for some reason.
Working Hard, Flying Right Friendly....
 
marcelh
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 5:48 pm

DaufuskieGuy wrote:
marcelh wrote:
DaufuskieGuy wrote:

stupid is a little harsh, but the 788 is too much plane for those routes (ditto East Coast TATL). the MOM would be way more suited and among available equipment the 330 is the best choice.


They fly them on sectors up to 9 hours and possibly with a lot of cargo. I don't know if that is stil Mom's territory.


it's probably not from what I've read, but DOH Europe routes are more in the 5-7 hour range


They use the 788 also to the south of Africa and Indonesia and Philippines.
 
DeltaB717
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:34 pm

Amazingly, this is the one thread in which another poster hasn't mentioned that HA has now confirmed it (a) has ordered 10x B789 and, more relevantly to this thread, (b) cancelled its A338 order at the end of February. Will HA's decision have any bearing on UA's interest in the A338 (positive or negative)? Early delivery slots would appear now to be open (as Airbus had, allegedly, allocated slots to HA), but would likely be very unattractive to the likes of UA (having no current Airbus widebodies) if there weren't several others in the not-too-distant future.
 
PDPsol
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:08 am

Referencing HA's recently announced decision to cancel its A300-800neo order, how likely could UA be convinced to order the model as a replacement for its B757/767 fleet, or at least some portion of the fleet? Reuters reported today Airbus is actively preparing a thorough and extensive marketing effort for the A330neo. Perhaps that initiative will focus on finding a new launch customer for the A330-800neo: UA!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1GI289

It is time for the 'real' competition between the B787 and A330neo to start, let the marketing campaigns (and the horsetrading) begin!
 
jagraham
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 08, 2018 12:20 am

UA will not order the A321NEO for TATL. No cargo on TATL with A321LR. At all. See Leeham analysis.

There is a reason they are flying their 763s and 757s until their wings fall off. And buying 763s in the used market when they are available. But Amazon is seriously crimping this approach.

Something has to give.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:27 am

PDPsol wrote:
Referencing HA's recently announced decision to cancel its A300-800neo order, how likely could UA be convinced to order the model as a replacement for its B757/767 fleet, or at least some portion of the fleet? Reuters reported today Airbus is actively preparing a thorough and extensive marketing effort for the A330neo. Perhaps that initiative will focus on finding a new launch customer for the A330-800neo: UA!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1GI289

It is time for the 'real' competition between the B787 and A330neo to start, let the marketing campaigns (and the horsetrading) begin!

Long answer:

I personally think US companies have increasing pressure to buy US products. The whole Trump "America first" has gained massive support by the common folk. Boeings would never have enforced the dumping rule without Trump at the helm. Boeings reputation tanked around the world but most US citizens have sided with Boeing.

I can see this having a massive affect in the short term. We won't see any major Airbus orders from the US3 while Trump is in office. For most airline deals the Airbus and Boeing offers would be very close, so politics can easily push the deal in favour of the local manufacturers.

It definitely wont get to the point where the US3 cancels existing Airbus orders, but they could cancel options or defer delivery.

Short answer:
No chance of A330's for UA.
 
United1
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:39 am

[quote="RJMAZ"][quote="PDPsol"]

We won't see any major Airbus orders from the US3 while Trump is in office.

DL ordered 100 A321s with 100 options in December 2017
UA modified its A350 order from 1000s to 900s and added 10 more in September 2017.

I don't think Trump is much of a factor...
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heavymetal
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 08, 2018 6:14 am

jagraham wrote:
UA will not order the A321NEO for TATL. No cargo on TATL with A321LR. At all. See Leeham analysis.

There is a reason they are flying their 763s and 757s until their wings fall off. And buying 763s in the used market when they are available. But Amazon is seriously crimping this approach.

Something has to give.


I think you are overstating the impact of cargo here.

Several people have already posted links above that show UA was routinely making fuel stops on TATL 757 flights, especially in winter. I would assume that UA prefers to not make stops, so they would withhold payload to attempt to prevent it - and you can sure bet that cargo will be left behind before passengers.

The Leeham analysis shows that at 3,900nm both the 757-200 and the A321LR have the same payload capability, with no room leftover for additional payload. If you are referencing cargo volume issues on the A321LR for shorter markets like KEF, I would say that markets like NYC-KEF and even some NYC-UK markets won't even need all 3 of the extra fuel tanks, as we've seen with WOW's KEF-LAX flight, so that should alleviate some (not all) of the cargo volume problems.

I would guess that the reason big 757 carriers like DL, AA, UA, etc. haven't yet ran to the A321LR is because the cost to own an A321LR must offset the economic improvements it offers. If your 757's are fully paid off, and you can still maintain them for reasonable rates, why bother spending $60-70M now on an A321LR when you could do it later? Especially if some of these routes are marginal to begin with? Didn't UA just cut some of their TATL 757 routes last summer?
 
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:25 am

RJMAZ wrote:
We won't see any major Airbus orders from the US3 while Trump is in office.


Seems United and Delta didn't get the memo.

1/3, must try harder. :rotfl:
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Bricktop
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:44 am

scbriml wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
We won't see any major Airbus orders from the US3 while Trump is in office.


Seems United and Delta didn't get the memo.

1/3, must try harder. :rotfl:

Correct. You have to remember that about half (allegedly) the country despise the guy. Look how many big shot businessmen dropped of his advisory councils. HA canceling the A338 had zippo to do with MAGA.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:59 am

NeBaNi wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
Hawaiian still claims to be taking the A338. Not that being one of only two customers is much better than being an only customer.


How many customers use 767-400 for example? How much trouble was that?

Oh no, I hope more airlines take the A330-800, if only to prevent countless A.net threads in the future debating whether Airbus designed the A338 solely for HA if it ends up being the sole operator. :banghead: :lol:

On a more serious note though, I think the A330-800 would be less trouble to develop than the 767-400ER. The A338, although a re-engined program, is a straight shrink of the A339, so its already piggybacking off the development costs of its larger, more successful family member. The 764 in contrast, was a standalone program.


Boeing developed the 767-400ER to sell it to 2 customers and sold 37 pieces. The development, a stretch, changed engines, changes to the wing, updated cockpit and a redesigned landing gear, could not have been cheap. Compered with that, doing the A330-800 in continuation of designing the A330-900 should be dirt cheap.
Where is the talk about the 767-400ER being orphans.

I have no doubt that Airbus will finish the A330-800, by flight testing the already build test frame and certifying it.

It will be there to be offered to current 767-300 operators and to 330-200 operators when their frames get old. I do not really expect big airlines to buy it, but small operators having a small A330-200 fleet that is getting old and the A330-900 does not have the range or is to big.

If UA buys some because they can not wait for the 797 and the 787-8 should be more expensive, that would be a bonus. UA at least seem to consider it.
 
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Revelation
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:06 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Correct. You have to remember that about half (allegedly) the country despise the guy. Look how many big shot businessmen dropped of his advisory councils. HA canceling the A338 had zippo to do with MAGA.

Corporations donate to both parties.

Boeing's trade battles have been running throughout several administrations now.

US corporations will not hesitate to buy Airbus, MAGA is immaterial.

Politicians of both parties need money to get elected.

The easiest way to get it is to pander to corporations.

Therefore politicians of both parties pander to corporations and corporations donate to politicians of both parties.

Corporations run the government, MAGA is just window dressing, curtains can be changed as often as needed.
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PlanesNTrains
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:25 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
NeBaNi wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

How many customers use 767-400 for example? How much trouble was that?

Oh no, I hope more airlines take the A330-800, if only to prevent countless A.net threads in the future debating whether Airbus designed the A338 solely for HA if it ends up being the sole operator. :banghead: :lol:

On a more serious note though, I think the A330-800 would be less trouble to develop than the 767-400ER. The A338, although a re-engined program, is a straight shrink of the A339, so its already piggybacking off the development costs of its larger, more successful family member. The 764 in contrast, was a standalone program.


Boeing developed the 767-400ER to sell it to 2 customers and sold 37 pieces. The development, a stretch, changed engines, changes to the wing, updated cockpit and a redesigned landing gear, could not have been cheap. Compered with that, doing the A330-800 in continuation of designing the A330-900 should be dirt cheap.
Where is the talk about the 767-400ER being orphans.

I have no doubt that Airbus will finish the A330-800, by flight testing the already build test frame and certifying it.

It will be there to be offered to current 767-300 operators and to 330-200 operators when their frames get old. I do not really expect big airlines to buy it, but small operators having a small A330-200 fleet that is getting old and the A330-900 does not have the range or is to big.

If UA buys some because they can not wait for the 797 and the 787-8 should be more expensive, that would be a bonus. UA at least seem to consider it.


The 767-400 was an orphan program. Feel better? :sarcastic:
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
Flyglobal
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:26 pm

Wonder if the low Boeing 787 low pricing has an effect on the MOM Business cas, in case they can not 'widen the gap' as intended.


Flyglobal
 
mjoelnir
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:29 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
NeBaNi wrote:
Oh no, I hope more airlines take the A330-800, if only to prevent countless A.net threads in the future debating whether Airbus designed the A338 solely for HA if it ends up being the sole operator. :banghead: :lol:

On a more serious note though, I think the A330-800 would be less trouble to develop than the 767-400ER. The A338, although a re-engined program, is a straight shrink of the A339, so its already piggybacking off the development costs of its larger, more successful family member. The 764 in contrast, was a standalone program.


Boeing developed the 767-400ER to sell it to 2 customers and sold 37 pieces. The development, a stretch, changed engines, changes to the wing, updated cockpit and a redesigned landing gear, could not have been cheap. Compered with that, doing the A330-800 in continuation of designing the A330-900 should be dirt cheap.
Where is the talk about the 767-400ER being orphans.

I have no doubt that Airbus will finish the A330-800, by flight testing the already build test frame and certifying it.

It will be there to be offered to current 767-300 operators and to 330-200 operators when their frames get old. I do not really expect big airlines to buy it, but small operators having a small A330-200 fleet that is getting old and the A330-900 does not have the range or is to big.

If UA buys some because they can not wait for the 797 and the 787-8 should be more expensive, that would be a bonus. UA at least seem to consider it.


The 767-400 was an orphan program. Feel better? :sarcastic:


Yes :biggrin: But we will get shit from the 737-400 lovers :duck:
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:32 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
NeBaNi wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

How many customers use 767-400 for example? How much trouble was that?

Oh no, I hope more airlines take the A330-800, if only to prevent countless A.net threads in the future debating whether Airbus designed the A338 solely for HA if it ends up being the sole operator. :banghead: :lol:

On a more serious note though, I think the A330-800 would be less trouble to develop than the 767-400ER. The A338, although a re-engined program, is a straight shrink of the A339, so its already piggybacking off the development costs of its larger, more successful family member. The 764 in contrast, was a standalone program.


Boeing developed the 767-400ER to sell it to 2 customers and sold 37 pieces. The development, a stretch, changed engines, changes to the wing, updated cockpit and a redesigned landing gear, could not have been cheap. Compered with that, doing the A330-800 in continuation of designing the A330-900 should be dirt cheap.
Where is the talk about the 767-400ER being orphans.

I have no doubt that Airbus will finish the A330-800, by flight testing the already build test frame and certifying it.

It will be there to be offered to current 767-300 operators and to 330-200 operators when their frames get old. I do not really expect big airlines to buy it, but small operators having a small A330-200 fleet that is getting old and the A330-900 does not have the range or is to big.

If UA buys some because they can not wait for the 797 and the 787-8 should be more expensive, that would be a bonus. UA at least seem to consider it.


Small operators, many of them having no choice but to lease for new airplanes, are going to pay what are likely very exorbitant lease rates to own A338s when cheap, used, new-ish A330s are still fairly abundant with lots of life left?
 
T5towbar
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:16 pm

Revelation wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
Correct. You have to remember that about half (allegedly) the country despise the guy. Look how many big shot businessmen dropped of his advisory councils. HA canceling the A338 had zippo to do with MAGA.

Corporations donate to both parties.

Boeing's trade battles have been running throughout several administrations now.

US corporations will not hesitate to buy Airbus, MAGA is immaterial.

Politicians of both parties need money to get elected.

The easiest way to get it is to pander to corporations.

Therefore politicians of both parties pander to corporations and corporations donate to politicians of both parties.

Corporations run the government, MAGA is just window dressing, curtains can be changed as often as needed.



Heck, the best ROI is to buy off a politician! And they are very cheap these days.........

Also, don't forget about the Airbus facility in AL that will be producing 320's and their variants left and right. Americans will be working there.
So what the occupant in the WH says will have no effect on this.
A comment from an Ex CON: Work Hard.....Fly Standby!
 
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Revelation
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:09 pm

Now we read something that supports the idea that UA is looking at A338:

Questions continue to swirl on the feasibility of the timeline put forward by Boeing for its proposed New Mid-market Airplane (NMA), with some questioning whether the aircraft will be ready by 2025.

"I'm not so sure it'll show up in the 2024-25 period," said Andrew Levy, chief financial officer of United Airlines, on the NMA in an interview with FlightGlobal on the sidelines of an industry conference in San Diego earlier in March.

As a result, the Chicago-based carrier is not building its fleet plan around the proposed widebody being available by 2025, he says. United is looking at nearer-term alternatives, including the Airbus A321LR and Airbus A330-800neo, to replace some of its 128 Boeing 757s and 767s, two models that the NMA is designed to replace.

Such a move by United would be a blow to Boeing, as the airline is a long-standing loyal customer that has long sought a new aircraft in the NMA's market segment.

This indeed is a blow to Team B.

Interesting to see if they try to fight this fire, or realizes that they can't.

Maybe this is why we saw the leak of the NMA rendering.

Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... fl-446689/
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SteelChair
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:28 pm

Levy is correct, there is no way that the MOM shows up by 2024-25. Using the 787, CSeries, and A380 as references, what is a reasonable timeline for MOM EIS? Late 2026 for certification and perhaps late 2027-2028 for high rate production? Based upon program launch today, which isn't happening.
 
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william
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:53 pm

I find the story of United waiting 7 years for the 797 iffy at best. Their 757s and 767s are old, and I would expect United to do what their competitors have done an replaced the oldest planes first with A321s. Airbus will be aggressive with A330 pricing in particular and United would be a fool to walk away from. At least a partial replacement.
 
727200
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:25 pm

United is not interested in Airbus, face it. If they were they would have ordered it long before this thread became a topic. They are a Boeing company and will continue to order them. There will be some interim replacements, but they have pretty much already stated they will be the launch customer of the 797. Sorry A fans, no matter how much you want its not going to happen.
 
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tistpaa727
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:15 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
I personally think US companies have increasing pressure to buy US products. The whole Trump "America first" has gained massive support by the common folk. Boeings would never have enforced the dumping rule without Trump at the helm. Boeings reputation tanked around the world but most US citizens have sided with Boeing.

I can see this having a massive affect in the short term. We won't see any major Airbus orders from the US3 while Trump is in office. For most airline deals the Airbus and Boeing offers would be very close, so politics can easily push the deal in favour of the local manufacturers.

It definitely wont get to the point where the US3 cancels existing Airbus orders, but they could cancel options or defer delivery.

Short answer:
No chance of A330's for UA.


I'm five days late to this comment but had to chime in. This is so incredibly short sighted. Not only has this been disproven by other members, airlines are in it to make money. Patriotism doesn't make money and the vast majority of flyers have a) no clue who makes the plane they are on until they (if they) read the safety card and b) will remember "oh, our fearless leader said not to by from airline XYZ because they don't buy American." Instead, they will purchase based on ticket price and then schedule.

mjoelnir wrote:
Where is the talk about the 767-400ER being orphans.



All over this forum. I agree that has been rather silent here but we have countless threads on the inadequacies of the 764. I personally find it my favorite 767 but alas, that didn't save it...

Revelation wrote:
Now we read something that supports the idea that UA is looking at A338:

Questions continue to swirl on the feasibility of the timeline put forward by Boeing for its proposed New Mid-market Airplane (NMA), with some questioning whether the aircraft will be ready by 2025.

"I'm not so sure it'll show up in the 2024-25 period," said Andrew Levy, chief financial officer of United Airlines, on the NMA in an interview with FlightGlobal on the sidelines of an industry conference in San Diego earlier in March.

As a result, the Chicago-based carrier is not building its fleet plan around the proposed widebody being available by 2025, he says. United is looking at nearer-term alternatives, including the Airbus A321LR and Airbus A330-800neo, to replace some of its 128 Boeing 757s and 767s, two models that the NMA is designed to replace.

Such a move by United would be a blow to Boeing, as the airline is a long-standing loyal customer that has long sought a new aircraft in the NMA's market segment.

This indeed is a blow to Team B.

Interesting to see if they try to fight this fire, or realizes that they can't.

Maybe this is why we saw the leak of the NMA rendering.

Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... fl-446689/


I would suggest this could be a negotiation tactic to get a better price from Boeing but for what? Seems the 763 has been ruled out, 737MAX? - doesn't really fill that gap, 787 seems like too much capacity. Not sure what play Boeing has here unless they offer the 787 ridiculously cheap to the point UA can't refuse similar to the 737 deal a few years ago.

727200 wrote:
United is not interested in Airbus, face it. If they were they would have ordered it long before this thread became a topic. They are a Boeing company and will continue to order them. There will be some interim replacements, but they have pretty much already stated they will be the launch customer of the 797. Sorry A fans, no matter how much you want its not going to happen.


It's posts like these that get me to respond. How in the world do you know what is going on at UA and why they won't order Airbus? I'll use the prime example that is often cited - AA's order for 321s. That was never going to happen but it did. When there really is only one ideal choice (baring some crazy low ball from Boeing for a not-ideal fit plane), you have to admit it would make sense for UA to order the A330-800. I have no hard evidence to back up my statements which is why I won't include any definitive language. As in the other comments re: MAGA, this is just a short-sighted comment.

Just my 2 cents.
Don't sweat the little things.
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:25 pm

It’s all negotiating tactics until they place an order. On both sides of this game.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:26 pm

727200 wrote:
United is not interested in Airbus, face it. If they were they would have ordered it long before this thread became a topic. They are a Boeing company and will continue to order them. There will be some interim replacements, but they have pretty much already stated they will be the launch customer of the 797. Sorry A fans, no matter how much you want its not going to happen.


You have no idea what their plans are, why they haven't ordered yet, etc. It could all have nothing to do with the airframes themselves and everything to do with existing CAPEX, airframe pricing, competitive issues, etc. In short, what's the rush? If they don't go 797, they can get A338s in a decent timeframe. Not having placed an order YET means nothing.

I stand by what I said earlier, which is that I see nothing wrong with an A321neo and/or A338 order for them. May not happen, but if it does, I won't be a bit surprised.
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
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iahcsr
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:19 am

To sum up the obvious; UA has a really no win decision to make. Either deal with the high maintenance :dollarsign: and lack of reliability of older aircraft until the ‘perfect’ :airplane: is available at some as yet uncertain future time, or go with a less than perfect alternative(s). I see the odds being a bit better in the ‘alternative’ favor. Which form that will take I truely have no clue :scratchchin: No matter what the decision, there’s going to be bitch’n and moan’n from a lot of pundants, here, and otherwise. There will be plenty of ‘I told you so’. :white:
Oh, and just remember ‘Hindsight is always 20/20, foresight definitely not so much’.
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par13del
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:58 am

Boeing has to factor in Airbus commonality, so if UA go more Airbus a/c like DL, it will be a long time before a switch comes along. DL widebody fleet is going to be Airbus for a long time, the narrow body fleet because of its size may be dual. UA just increased its order of Airbus a/c, if they purchase additional a/c as the 767 / 757 replacements, its a good bet that the existing 777W's will be the only Boeing holdout in their fleet as the 777-200's would be the next to go and the A330 is any guise already competes in that segment, so just adding additional frames.
If Boeing wants to keep UA in their wide body market they need to offer killer prices on the 787-8, even if that means taking an additional loss, better to have a loss leader for a client than to loose the client for another 20 years. Or pull the rabbit out of the hat and launch the 797 with an aggressive delivery date, 787 notwithstanding, they should have learned something by that debacle....hope spring eternal.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:52 pm

par13del wrote:
Boeing has to factor in Airbus commonality, so if UA go more Airbus a/c like DL, it will be a long time before a switch comes along. DL widebody fleet is going to be Airbus for a long time, the narrow body fleet because of its size may be dual. UA just increased its order of Airbus a/c, if they purchase additional a/c as the 767 / 757 replacements, its a good bet that the existing 777W's will be the only Boeing holdout in their fleet as the 777-200's would be the next to go and the A330 is any guise already competes in that segment, so just adding additional frames.
If Boeing wants to keep UA in their wide body market they need to offer killer prices on the 787-8, even if that means taking an additional loss, better to have a loss leader for a client than to loose the client for another 20 years. Or pull the rabbit out of the hat and launch the 797 with an aggressive delivery date, 787 notwithstanding, they should have learned something by that debacle....hope spring eternal.


How will the 77W be the only Boeing holdout when they have dozens of wide body 787s?
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:24 pm

iahcsr wrote:
To sum up the obvious; UA has a really no win decision to make. Either deal with the high maintenance :dollarsign: and lack of reliability of older aircraft until the ‘perfect’ :airplane: is available at some as yet uncertain future time, or go with a less than perfect alternative(s). I see the odds being a bit better in the ‘alternative’ favor. Which form that will take I truely have no clue :scratchchin: No matter what the decision, there’s going to be bitch’n and moan’n from a lot of pundants, here, and otherwise. There will be plenty of ‘I told you so’. :white:
Oh, and just remember ‘Hindsight is always 20/20, foresight definitely not so much’.


It depending how cheap UA can get them and how quickly. If HAL is no longer going to be the launch customer, perhaps UA can be and get better discounts. The A330-800 could allow UA to fly to Europe from any of their hubs in North America. That's longer range than the 763 has. This would allow smaller than 77E capacity to Europe from the west coast. The UA's 764 fleet could be redeployed to shorter transatlantic flights and domestic routes.

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