SelseyBill
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:15 pm

rnav2dlrey wrote:
UA will never buy the A330.


.......famous last words.......
 
B777LRF
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:26 pm

[threeid][/threeid]
Gingersnap wrote:
727200 wrote:
A snowball in he'll has a better chance of survival than UA ever buying A-330. It's called negotiation ploy. Not gonna ever happen.


Well if it's that obvious (and I agree), then Airbus would be well served to barely budge on price.


On the contrary. If Airbus really believed the best CEOs, CFOs and COOs in the business are posting on a.net, all proclaiming UA will never buy another Airbus just because, then surely their best play would be to offer the aircraft at an insanely cheap price, in the sure knowledge UA would then squeeze every last drop out of a 787 order, thereby minimising the profit Boeing will make on the sale.

But that's not the way business works, and some of the people who don't know that are keeping themselves very busy on these fora, attempting to sound clever.
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B777LRF
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:38 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
One quote is also interesting:

However, multiple airlines that have looked at the A321LR say it will not be capable of carrying as high of a payload as the 757 across the Atlantic.


I don't think anyone suggested the LR would be able to fully replace a 757 in terms of payload. The LRs trick is that it can, just about, fly the same distance as the 757, and whilst it may 'only' carry 90% of the payload, it will crucially deliver a higher profit as a consequence of much lower operating costs. Airlines don't give 2 shits if they carry 15 less passenger and 1 ton less cargo, as long as they're making more money.
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Newbiepilot
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:46 pm

Perhaps this is why Airbus proceeded forward with A330-800 development even though Hawaiian is renegotiating their order. If Airbus stopped developing the A338, then the possibility of getting a big United order probably disappears. Airbus may think they have a strong shot at winning the deal. Maybe they do?
 
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:50 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
parapente wrote:
People speak of the loooong runway requirements of the stretched 737's particularly the -9.One must assume that the extra stretched 7310 is no better.Would that not effect its usefulness on some of their routes?


The -10 will have landing gear modifications allowing for a steeper rotation angle, which, as I understand, could mean it needs less runway than the -9.


Someone help me understand this idea that a steeper rotation angle results in a shorter take off roll.
 
codc10
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:50 pm

RalXWB wrote:
United with its current Continental and Boeing Board will never order any more Airbus unfortunately...


Who, precisely, on the BoD, is former Continental? I'll make it easy for you... only Oscar, and he was just a director of CO, not part of its management team at any point.

This notion is simply out of date and an a.net myth.
Last edited by codc10 on Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
B777LRF
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:52 pm

The 787-8 should have been a shoe-in for 767 replacement, but with its somewhat orphan status things are not quiet that easy. Could UA convince Boeing to bring the -8 up to -9 production standards, then I think not only United but a long line of airlines would be highly interested. If they were to further enhance the -8 to better fit a 5000NM / 250-seat market, then it might just be the 'MoM' airlines would be flocking to. It would, figuratively speaking, blow the -800neo out of the water for anyone not having a desperate need to carry 250 souls, and not a soul more, for 14 hours, whilst simultaneously nursing a serious aversion to Boeing 787s. And that, as I'm sure we'll all agree, is about as rare as hens teeth.

The 787 is proving to be a money maker, 'even' in -8 disguise, and so even if UA can't make Boeing improve on an already fine mousetrap, my guess is UA will take them anyway.

Which is why my money's on a A321neo/B787-8 order for near-term 757/767 replacement.
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NZ321
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:03 pm

Comments like UA will never buy the A330! need to be put under real scrutiny. This is just nonsense. It all comes economics at the end of the day. The challenge for us is to get inside what the board is thinking. It's just inflammatory nonsense without evidence. Such posters would do well to back up their assertions or refrain from dropping such content IMHO. Just leads to an us and them debate that we are all tired of. Let's focus on the evidence not the conjecture. Please.
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Tkt96
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:03 pm

FlyingJhawk wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:
parapente wrote:
People speak of the loooong runway requirements of the stretched 737's particularly the -9.One must assume that the extra stretched 7310 is no better.Would that not effect its usefulness on some of their routes?


The -10 will have landing gear modifications allowing for a steeper rotation angle, which, as I understand, could mean it needs less runway than the -9.


Someone help me understand this idea that a steeper rotation angle results in a shorter take off roll.


Steeper rotation angle = higher angle of Attack for the wings = more lift for a given speed = lift off at lower speeds then at a lower angle of Attack = shorter runway required.

737-900 needs lots of runway because its so long it cant rotate to an angle of attack needed for the wings to generate lift required for takeoff at lower speeds, therefore it must achieve more speed to make up for that lack of angle of attack.
Last edited by Tkt96 on Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
fsabo
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:04 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
parapente wrote:
People speak of the loooong runway requirements of the stretched 737's particularly the -9.One must assume that the extra stretched 7310 is no better.Would that not effect its usefulness on some of their routes?


The -10 will have landing gear modifications allowing for a steeper rotation angle, which, as I understand, could mean it needs less runway than the -9.


A hypothetical -9 with the -10s landing gear modification would allow for a steeper rotation angle. With the -10 the added fuselage length and landing gear modification result in pretty much a wash.
 
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:07 pm

FlyingJhawk wrote:
Someone help me understand this idea that a steeper rotation angle results in a shorter take off roll.


Sure. As you increase the angle of attack (lifting the nose upwards) you increase the lift generated by the wings. Which, when you're at sufficient speed down the runway, result in the aircraft taking off. If there were sufficiently long runways available (and absent other limitations), then any aircraft would eventually lift off the runway without having to rotate, as they reached the speed necessary to create enough lift.

Now, if the geometry of an aircraft only allow you to rotate the nose up to e.g. 8 degrees on take-off, then you'll need more speed than if you were able to rotate to e.g. 10 degrees. And here's the big difference between a 737-7 and a -9: The -7 is able to achieve a higher rotation angle, thereby reducing the speed necessary to create enough lift, which means it can make do with a shorter runway. Conversely, because the geometry of the -9 is, well, pretty abysmal, it can't rotate that far and therefore need to compensate with speed and, as consequence thereof, need longer (much longer!) runways.

I'm not quite sure if the altered gear geometry of the -10 is enough to improve on a -9, or it if merely maintain the same level of runway performance, i.e. ability to reach the same angle of attack on take-off.
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NZ321
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:09 pm

B777LRF wrote:
The 787-8 should have been a shoe-in for 767 replacement, but with its somewhat orphan status things are not quiet that easy. Could UA convince Boeing to bring the -8 up to -9 production standards, then I think not only United but a long line of airlines would be highly interested. If they were to further enhance the -8 to better fit a 5000NM / 250-seat market, then it might just be the 'MoM' airlines would be flocking to. It would, figuratively speaking, blow the -800neo out of the water for anyone not having a desperate need to carry 250 souls, and not a soul more, for 14 hours, whilst simultaneously nursing a serious aversion to Boeing 787s. And that, as I'm sure we'll all agree, is about as rare as hens teeth.

The 787 is proving to be a money maker, 'even' in -8 disguise, and so even if UA can't make Boeing improve on an already fine mousetrap, my guess is UA will take them anyway.

Which is why my money's on a A321neo/B787-8 order for near-term 757/767 replacement.


The trouble with the 788 as a 763 replacement is it is too much airplane. Too much for many routes. Too pricey. That may shift though. We have to remember though that Boeing had a 787-3 on the drawing board and when that went out the window so too did a number of replacement orders you are referring to for regional fleets. Will be interesting to see if Boeing proceeds with said development aircraft 797. My pick is that they are taking time to understand the sweet spot on this aircraft and possibly still unsure whether they can justify the investment with current technology.
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william
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:12 pm

If you take the emotion and internet urban legends out of this. It makes sense that United is looking at A330s. It is the product that supplanted the 767 on the Trans Altantic routes and in the market place. It is the only widebody available now for those who do not need to fly to from the mainland to Dakar, South Africa. And Airbus has made it a goal this year to add more A330s to the order book, so yes, the deals are cheap, United better at least look at it.
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StTim
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:15 pm

FlyingJhawk wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:
parapente wrote:
People speak of the loooong runway requirements of the stretched 737's particularly the -9.One must assume that the extra stretched 7310 is no better.Would that not effect its usefulness on some of their routes?


The -10 will have landing gear modifications allowing for a steeper rotation angle, which, as I understand, could mean it needs less runway than the -9.


Someone help me understand this idea that a steeper rotation angle results in a shorter take off roll.


Most civilian aircraft wings do not generate a lot of lift on the ground - even at take off speeds. What happens at rotation speed is that the lift is sufficient to raise the nose and that increases the angle of attack which dramatically increases lift allowing the plane to lift off.

With the 737-9 the angle that can be achieved at rotation is lower so the extra lift is less meaning the plane has to be moving much quicker to get the lift required. Hence the reputation as a runway hog.

Even in cruise most planes fly nose up.
 
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:20 pm

Bricktop wrote:
If little games like this get us closer to the 797 launch, then good. For an airline that hasn't operated the A33X family to jump in on an orphan would be a surprise. Unless they use it to get out of the A350 order. :duck:


Rather than get out of the A350 order, I think it far more likely they`ll seriously look at adding A351 to their fleet.
 
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:23 pm

Seems like the rumors of Boeing selling UA new 767s might be subsiding. Which would put the A330 right in contention.
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babastud
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:24 pm

Call me crazy but I think a version of the 787-3 would have been a nice solution + an order of 787-10 for longer higher capacity routes. Looking at UA's hubs like EWR, SFO, and LAX I do not imagine too much gate space growth in the future, they need the capacity on hub to hub routes. Granted the 787-3 would not be across the pond, but it could be modified and be very very efficient plane.
 
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:25 pm

Tedd wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
If little games like this get us closer to the 797 launch, then good. For an airline that hasn't operated the A33X family to jump in on an orphan would be a surprise. Unless they use it to get out of the A350 order. :duck:


Rather than get out of the A350 order, I think it far more likely they`ll seriously look at adding A351 to their fleet.

I don't think so, but it's not impossible when the take and like the A359. But they swapped from the -1000 to the -900 already, and they have a bunch of very new B77W's on property though that fill that role at a much lower capex. (Accepting the a.net line that the A351 is the analog for the B77W)
 
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:27 pm

We still assume that the leak about HA potential move to the 789 was from Airbus source. Is it a strategy of Airbus to destroy the Business case for the MOM, as UA for sure called Boeing last week (?) : 'how about our 789 Pricing'. So we are probably in a fight of the two giants. Wouldn't wonder that the A338 wipe out activities Boeing did recently (as some asume) may cause a number of airlines taking the opportunity and the 338 suddenly gets traction.

Flyglobal
 
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:40 pm

codc10 wrote:
RalXWB wrote:
United with its current Continental and Boeing Board will never order any more Airbus unfortunately...


Who, precisely, on the BoD, is former Continental? I'll make it easy for you... only Oscar, and he was just a director of CO, not part of its management team at any point.

This notion is simply out of date and an a.net myth.


It’s just Airbus fanboy fluff. They’ve ordered dozens of A350s, operate dozens of A32Xs, and most assuredly will consider and possibly order more Airbus products in the future.

The folks on both sides of the fanboy spectrum that say “never” are clearly seeing this through globe-colored glasses. That’s so 1990s.
-Dave


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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:40 pm

Flyglobal wrote:
We still assume that the leak about HA potential move to the 789 was from Airbus source. Is it a strategy of Airbus to destroy the Business case for the MOM, as UA for sure called Boeing last week (?) : 'how about our 789 Pricing'. So we are probably in a fight of the two giants. Wouldn't wonder that the A338 wipe out activities Boeing did recently (as some asume) may cause a number of airlines taking the opportunity and the 338 suddenly gets traction.

Flyglobal

If it is Boeing’s strategy to destroy the A338 I doubt they would have much issue extending similar pricing to UA. The main issue I think is that UA doesn’t really want something A338/788 sized...they want something smaller/less capable. It is whether Boeing’s MOM and whatever Airbus’s response is meets their time frame well, how well it will fit UA’s needs, and what they can offer in the interim.
 
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:42 pm

NZ321 wrote:
B777LRF wrote:
The 787-8 should have been a shoe-in for 767 replacement, but with its somewhat orphan status things are not quiet that easy. Could UA convince Boeing to bring the -8 up to -9 production standards, then I think not only United but a long line of airlines would be highly interested. If they were to further enhance the -8 to better fit a 5000NM / 250-seat market, then it might just be the 'MoM' airlines would be flocking to. It would, figuratively speaking, blow the -800neo out of the water for anyone not having a desperate need to carry 250 souls, and not a soul more, for 14 hours, whilst simultaneously nursing a serious aversion to Boeing 787s. And that, as I'm sure we'll all agree, is about as rare as hens teeth.

The 787 is proving to be a money maker, 'even' in -8 disguise, and so even if UA can't make Boeing improve on an already fine mousetrap, my guess is UA will take them anyway.

Which is why my money's on a A321neo/B787-8 order for near-term 757/767 replacement.


The trouble with the 788 as a 763 replacement is it is too much airplane. Too much for many routes. Too pricey. That may shift though. We have to remember though that Boeing had a 787-3 on the drawing board and when that went out the window so too did a number of replacement orders you are referring to for regional fleets. Will be interesting to see if Boeing proceeds with said development aircraft 797. My pick is that they are taking time to understand the sweet spot on this aircraft and possibly still unsure whether they can justify the investment with current technology.


Their is a reason the 787-3 was never build. It was thought for ANA or JAL flying 787 domestic. In the end their was no advantage for the 787-3 over the standard 787-8, apart from perhaps gate size, so both took 787-8 instead.
 
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:45 pm

I bet UA will take A321 and a330 as a package or go MAX and 788 as a package and buy as a few as they can and pressure Boeing to begin the 797 project. The 788 is an aircraft they know very well and they could get a killer deal from Boeing and far cheaper than what Airbus can offer, just to kill the A338.... my money is in the Boeing product but stranger things have happened before...
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Tedd
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:47 pm

Flyglobal wrote:
We still assume that the leak about HA potential move to the 789 was from Airbus source. Is it a strategy of Airbus to destroy the Business case for the MOM, as UA for sure called Boeing last week (?) : 'how about our 789 Pricing'. So we are probably in a fight of the two giants. Wouldn't wonder that the A338 wipe out activities Boeing did recently (as some asume) may cause a number of airlines taking the opportunity and the 338 suddenly gets traction.

Flyglobal


Blimey this is a bit deep isn`t it? The best course for Airbus would have been for HA to have quietly gone & taken
A338 just as they`ve taken A332 in the past surely? Then again I`m not the devious type :)
One thing is for sure, any interest UA take in the A338 will be a shot in the arm for the program.

O
 
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seahawk
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:52 pm

Nobody buys a A338 if he does not need the range. The trip cost Delta of the A339 is so small that you get the extra capacity for nearly free.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:58 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
parapente wrote:
People speak of the loooong runway requirements of the stretched 737's particularly the -9.One must assume that the extra stretched 7310 is no better.Would that not effect its usefulness on some of their routes?


The -10 will have landing gear modifications allowing for a steeper rotation angle, which, as I understand, could mean it needs less runway than the -9.


If the -9 had the same landing gear, it would be a good plane for long thin routes that need more range than the -10 has.
 
catiii
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:00 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
That should exclude the possible 797, that leaves 4 options.


And yet United hasn't excluded the new Boeing option on their slide. Hmmm...
 
SteelChair
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:10 pm

B777LRF wrote:
There's no clearly, or even loosely, defined '797'; it's not even a paper plane at this stage, simply because there is no next generation engine available to power the thing. It will be, at least, 5-7 years before an engine becomes available, meaning a '797' is a good 6-8 years away, but probably close to 10. If United, or anybody else, is willing to wait that long for product which hasn't been defined and which may, or may not, fit their need then good for them. Otherwise the only shows in town are the A321neo, A330neo and 787.


I agree with this assessment and will go further:

The A321 is not enough plane.

The A338 is too much plane.

The 788 is way, way too much plane. Too high OEW and way too much range.

Therefore, the A338 is the only game in town that nearly fits the requirement and is available soon. I think this is not just a threat from UAL but a real possibility.
 
jubguy3
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:11 pm

I would be shocked if United chose the Airbus option... except for the fact that Boeing's 797 is still a decade away from EIS. No airline chooses an aircraft because they are an Airbus fanboy or a Boeing fanboy. People seem to think that's how it works... look at the Delta 797 thread. Why is Delta suddenly "drifting away from Airbus"? Because they like money. And so does United. They aren't going to wait 10 years for a plane that they need in 2-5 years. United does have 45 A350 on order and has been actively increasing their orders for the type. I could see them getting a good deal jumping in to save the A338 program and reduce the costs for Airbus having to develop an aircraft with no orders. Obviously they are considering low capital costs - these seem like aircraft they don't intend to keep long. I would see a mix of A338 and B73J (is this the code for 737-10?) being perfect until they can acquire the NMA.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:26 pm

I’m still not clear why an A321neo/A338 combo wouldn’t work for UA? A 50+50/ 25+25 order seems reasonable, conservative, and adequate for their needs. This could push out the need for a MOM a bit and allow them to avoid delivery delays and the like.
-Dave


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jeffrey0032j
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:42 pm

SteelChair wrote:
B777LRF wrote:
There's no clearly, or even loosely, defined '797'; it's not even a paper plane at this stage, simply because there is no next generation engine available to power the thing. It will be, at least, 5-7 years before an engine becomes available, meaning a '797' is a good 6-8 years away, but probably close to 10. If United, or anybody else, is willing to wait that long for product which hasn't been defined and which may, or may not, fit their need then good for them. Otherwise the only shows in town are the A321neo, A330neo and 787.


I agree with this assessment and will go further:

The A321 is not enough plane.

The A338 is too much plane.

The 788 is way, way too much plane. Too high OEW and way too much range.

Therefore, the A338 is the only game in town that nearly fits the requirement and is available soon. I think this is not just a threat from UAL but a real possibility.

If the 788 has too much range, the A330-800neo has even longer range, and therefore your argument does not stand.

Also, the economics of the A330neo family is skewed towards the A330-900neo, if you want to get a A330neo, you might as well get a 339, much more worth it that spending almost the same amount of money buying and operating a A338. Airbus has optimized the A339 in a bid to retain its shrinking space in the traditional A330 market, but in doing so, it made the A339 almost as capable as the A338 but with more space and not too much of a difference in operating cost.
Last edited by jeffrey0032j on Thu Mar 01, 2018 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
kevin5345179
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:53 pm

interesting timing though
this news is out when HA was complaining to be the only customer of A338 and want out .....
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:54 pm

I would not get excited about chances for the A338.

The powerpoint and personal presentation by Gerry Laderman SVP Finance does not share any secrets and is simply meant for public signaling.

It would be irresponsible for UA not to explore all options simply for the fact that it puts pressure on the OEMs to sharpen their pencils and be more competitive. While the company likely has a good idea of what it wants, it must play the field to ensure it generates the best deal possible.

While many might blast UA management for various things, one area they have done extremely well with is aircraft acquisition, deriving super deals on each recent transaction.
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ADent
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:59 pm

Guess the bid for new build 767-300ERs didn't come in at a favorable price/schedule.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 5:03 pm

ADent wrote:
Guess the bid for new build 767-300ERs didn't come in at a favorable price/schedule.


I think they could have gotten one or the other, but not both. Low rate = years until delivery but good price. Higher rate = faster delivery but higher price.

It would have been nice to have seen but it seemed like a stretch.
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 5:05 pm

ADent wrote:
Guess the bid for new build 767-300ERs didn't come in at a favorable price/schedule.

I don't think they ever wanted just the 763s. I would think that the 763s are just part of a MOM/NMA deal as an interim solution with a lease return to Boeing, in that case, the target plane would be the MOM instead. It could even still be on the table.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 5:07 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
B777LRF wrote:
There's no clearly, or even loosely, defined '797'; it's not even a paper plane at this stage, simply because there is no next generation engine available to power the thing. It will be, at least, 5-7 years before an engine becomes available, meaning a '797' is a good 6-8 years away, but probably close to 10. If United, or anybody else, is willing to wait that long for product which hasn't been defined and which may, or may not, fit their need then good for them. Otherwise the only shows in town are the A321neo, A330neo and 787.


I agree with this assessment and will go further:

The A321 is not enough plane.

The A338 is too much plane.

The 788 is way, way too much plane. Too high OEW and way too much range.

Therefore, the A338 is the only game in town that nearly fits the requirement and is available soon. I think this is not just a threat from UAL but a real possibility.

If the 788 has too much range, the A330-800neo has even longer range, and therefore your argument does not stand.

Also, the economics of the A330neo family is skewed towards the A330-900neo, if you want to get a A330neo, you might as well get a 339, much more worth it that spending almost the same amount of money buying and operating a A338. Airbus has optimized the A339 in a bid to retain its shrinking space in the traditional A330 market, but in doing so, it made the A339 almost as capable as the A338 but with more space and not too much of a difference in operating cost.


I think this if you want a A330neo, take a A330-900, is a bit over blown. The A330-800 will present both a lower acquisition price and lower trip cost, even if the operating cost per seat come out higher. If you have not full loads, the A330-800 will be more economical than the A330-900.
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 5:11 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
SteelChair wrote:

I agree with this assessment and will go further:

The A321 is not enough plane.

The A338 is too much plane.

The 788 is way, way too much plane. Too high OEW and way too much range.

Therefore, the A338 is the only game in town that nearly fits the requirement and is available soon. I think this is not just a threat from UAL but a real possibility.

If the 788 has too much range, the A330-800neo has even longer range, and therefore your argument does not stand.

Also, the economics of the A330neo family is skewed towards the A330-900neo, if you want to get a A330neo, you might as well get a 339, much more worth it that spending almost the same amount of money buying and operating a A338. Airbus has optimized the A339 in a bid to retain its shrinking space in the traditional A330 market, but in doing so, it made the A339 almost as capable as the A338 but with more space and not too much of a difference in operating cost.


I think this if you want a A330neo, take a A330-900, is a bit over blown. The A330-800 will present both a lower acquisition price and lower trip cost, even if the operating cost per seat come out higher. If you have not full loads, the A330-800 will be more economical than the A330-900.

Why not just get a 788 then? The market till date has made it quite clear regarding the A330neo.
 
airzona11
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 5:38 pm

Today more than ever airlines are very careful to monitor metrics like load factor, etc. The A330-8 is not a replacement for the 767s. Maybe the 764s, but that is it. The A321s are too small for 767-300 capacity and range wise. Same can be said for the 737/787 combo Boeing currently has on offer. UA is no doubt going to need to make sacrifices to operate a plan that doesn't 1-1 replace their fleet. Much lower capex helps.

Or maybe this is publically pushing A and B for something in the 767-300 space.
 
SonomaFlyer
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 6:57 pm

What is interesting in this discussion is the notion of a paper derate/thrust plug option for the 338. We know the plane vastly over performs vs the 763/764 but if Airbus is willing to do the derate option which will lower the capex per plane and get a good deal per unit on top of that so Airbus can save this subtype, it might make good sense to go this route.

UA is coming to the point where they will need to make heavy investments in the 763 fleet due to its age. Heavy checks are expensive and its reasonable to assume the 338 has a lower cost per seat than the 763 given the newer aerodynamics and engines/wings.

Boeing perhaps could come back and possibly derate 788s and/or agree to make the production changes needed to harmonize it with the 789 fleet which could lower costs for UA. I don't know if Boeing is willing to do either of these options as it seems like (perhaps) they simply want the airlines to order -9s.

At that point, its a numbers game. There really isn't perfect replacement for this segment given the new a/c which were developed over that last ten years or so in the wide body market.
 
trex8
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 7:19 pm

A will give you a regional A333 with 199K MTOW so if you dont need a 242K MTOW A338 I'm sure you can get a discount for a @200K one. I guess its just a question of how much that lower capital cost is vs possibly higher operating costs thru its life due to its higher OEW.
Some airlines are operating their A359s at 275 to 240K(or was it 250K- Zeke pip in!) , not sure if they got a break in purchase price for getting a version certified where you can use a long haul and a regional TOW.

I would think changing the way the 788 is made is very more expensive . Or they could do a straight shrink 78-7 off the -9!
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 7:31 pm

trex8 wrote:
A will give you a regional A333 with 199K MTOW so if you dont need a 242K MTOW A338 I'm sure you can get a discount for a @200K one. I guess its just a question of how much that lower capital cost is vs possibly higher operating costs thru its life due to its higher OEW.
Some airlines are operating their A359s at 275 to 240K(or was it 250K- Zeke pip in!) , not sure if they got a break in purchase price for getting a version certified where you can use a long haul and a regional TOW.

I would think changing the way the 788 is made is very more expensive . Or they could do a straight shrink 78-7 off the -9!


The 788 seems doubtful at this point. If they don't want the 338/339, then just go A321neo and wait out the MoM.
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
neutronstar73
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 7:36 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
Note that the A330-800 is just one of 5 options being considered to replace the 757/767 fleets. It's not a given that UA will simply select the A330neo.

Image
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-446322/


Yes, five options, but the slide tells us also it is a near term target. That should exclude the possible 797, that leaves 4 options. The four options do not exclude each other.
Some of the 757 and 767 will be or are being replaced by 737-10 or A321neo, that takes care of the lower end both in range and capacity. The upper end could be replaced by 787-8 or A330-800. If CAPEX is the overriding consideration than it can well be the A330-800.

One quote is also interesting:

However, multiple airlines that have looked at the A321LR say it will not be capable of carrying as high of a payload as the 757 across the Atlantic.


That last quote right there is the reason that anyone who thinks the A321LR is a 757 beater is, and has been, off their proverbial rocker. I mean, didn't everyone see that from the beginning?
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 7:48 pm

It would make me so happy to see the A330 flying for UA! I for one will be rooting for this order for sure!
@DadCelo
 
1989worstyear
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 7:48 pm

neutronstar73 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
Note that the A330-800 is just one of 5 options being considered to replace the 757/767 fleets. It's not a given that UA will simply select the A330neo.

Image
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-446322/


Yes, five options, but the slide tells us also it is a near term target. That should exclude the possible 797, that leaves 4 options. The four options do not exclude each other.
Some of the 757 and 767 will be or are being replaced by 737-10 or A321neo, that takes care of the lower end both in range and capacity. The upper end could be replaced by 787-8 or A330-800. If CAPEX is the overriding consideration than it can well be the A330-800.

One quote is also interesting:

However, multiple airlines that have looked at the A321LR say it will not be capable of carrying as high of a payload as the 757 across the Atlantic.


That last quote right there is the reason that anyone who thinks the A321LR is a 757 beater is, and has been, off their proverbial rocker. I mean, didn't everyone see that from the beginning?


Trust me, I'm a huge 757 fan, but as someone else posted above, the efficiency gains of the modern NEO engines offset the revenue from the lost payload.

That being said, I can't say I'm happy that UA is putting the 757 fleet replacement 10-15 ahead of their current A320's - they're the same damn age!
:mad:
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Planesmart
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:17 pm

trex8 wrote:
A will give you a regional A333 with 199K MTOW so if you dont need a 242K MTOW A338 I'm sure you can get a discount for a @200K one. I guess its just a question of how much that lower capital cost is vs possibly higher operating costs thru its life due to its higher OEW.
Some airlines are operating their A359s at 275 to 240K(or was it 250K- Zeke pip in!) , not sure if they got a break in purchase price for getting a version certified where you can use a long haul and a regional TOW.

But is it worth Airbus investment and time? They already hold significant a330neo margin and performance improvement aces close to the chest, to protect A350 and A320 margins and volumes. At what point do they show their hand?
 
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DLHAM
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:04 am

I dont see why United should order the A330-800 as a 767 replacement rather than the 787-8, an airplane they already operate. The A330-800 is about the same size as the 787-8, with a fuselage which is narrower, weighs about the same. Just MTOW/Range are much too high for UAs 767 routes in both cases. Could maybe be reduced on paper. The 787-3 would have been Uniteds Airplane, If they intend to replace the 767 with something bigger. If they want a same size replacement all they can do is keeping the freshest of their 767s longer, buy new builds and wait for the 797. I think this is what they will do ...

Does Boeing still offer the 767-400 btw?
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Revelation
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:21 am

DLHAM wrote:
Does Boeing still offer the 767-400 btw?

No, it's off the price list. They can ( at least in theory ) make more 763ERs because the tankers and freighters are being made, but the unique parts needed for 764 just aren't being made any more.
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RJMAZ
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:35 am

B777LRF wrote:
The 787-8 should have been a shoe-in for 767 replacement, but with its somewhat orphan status things are not quiet that easy. Could UA convince Boeing to bring the -8 up to -9 production standards, then I think not only United but a long line of airlines would be highly interested. If they were to further enhance the -8 to better fit a 5000NM / 250-seat market, then it might just be the 'MoM' airlines would be flocking to. It would, figuratively speaking, blow the -800neo out of the water for anyone not having a desperate need to carry 250 souls, and not a soul more, for 14 hours, whilst simultaneously nursing a serious aversion to Boeing 787s. And that, as I'm sure we'll all agree, is about as rare as hens teeth.

The 787 is proving to be a money maker, 'even' in -8 disguise, and so even if UA can't make Boeing improve on an already fine mousetrap, my guess is UA will take them anyway.

Which is why my money's on a A321neo/B787-8 order for near-term 757/767 replacement.

I completely agree with this. You may have seen my posts saying the same thing.

The 788 has very low commonality with the larger versions and is the now the most expensive model to produce. The 788 in a way is the prototype model of the 787 family let's call it the version 1. Many production improvements were included in the 789 making it faster to build and slightly lighter let's call it the version 2.

Commonality isn't the biggest problem it's more the extra labour and weight in the 788 design reducing fuel burn and purchase price making it unattractive. Boeing has gained a lot of knowledge and is ready to implement more production and weight improvements in a version 3 carbon fibre aircraft.

The 788 could very well be relaunched with these improvements and become the NMA / MOM aircraft everyone is talking about. Very disappointing as an enthusiast.

As so much of the relaunched 788 would be rebuilt it would be easy for Boeing to target short range efficiency. By setting a maximum takeoff weight below 200T it reduces the peak load the aircraft would see. This allows the bulkheads, wingbox, wingspars, wing skins and landing gear to be made lighter. This is as simple as removing a few layers of carbon fibre or machining an extra few millimetres of metal from the parts.

The A338 competing against the Boeing MOM in United order is further evidence that this new Boeing NMA will be large and could be a 787-3 done properly.

Remember the 787-3 failed because it was going to only be around 5% lighter than the 787-8 despite having a maximum takeoff weight reduced by a massive 27%. A proper weight reduction optimisation would have seen 10-20T of empty weight shed off the 787-3 but budget only allowed for it to be a simple wing tip reduction and weights/thrust reduced on paper. To do it properly instead of using a derated engine it would have been better to go with a slightly smaller but higher bypass ratio engine.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: United eyes A330-800 for fleet replacement

Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:49 am

I agree that the more likely scenario is a mix of A321NEOs and 788s.
@DadCelo

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