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believeinflight
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Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:18 am

Hey, just wondering how big is the aviation market between America and Europe? I heard it's quite big.
 
Varsity1
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:44 am

Really big.
 
jubguy3
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:50 am

It is: 1 billion big

I'm confused as to how to answer this question. I can tell you that it is the largest transoceanic market between two economic zones. I'm sure the data are tucked away on some FAA website somewhere
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:41 am

It's huge, but it's also a bloodbath with more supply than demand leading to rock bottom fares.
 
eicvd
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:57 am

Really really big









No seriously it’s massive!
 
Gazdon121
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:58 am

It's fairly big, has a few flights a day USA-europe, can get some good fares also.

What else have you heard about it?
 
devron
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:04 am

Last edited by devron on Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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OA940
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:05 am

The US to Europe market is MASSIVE. Like Death Star massive. Consider that each of the top 10 airports in the US and Europe have several daily flights to several destinations each. And then there's more airports. And more. And more. And then there's more frequencies. And more. And more.
 
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HELyes
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:44 am

devron wrote:



Just a detail but it's better to say Europe-USA, to not get mixed with the EU (European Union)
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:21 am

HELyes wrote:
devron wrote:



Just a detail but it's better to say Europe-USA, to not get mixed with the EU (European Union)


True, because that includes countries like Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. Those are not EU-members, but they do have flights to the USA. However then you may ask, where to draw the border of Europe? Does Russia qualify as Europe? What about Turkey? They're not part of the European Common Aviation Area, but they are (partly) on the European continent.

PS would be interesting how this market is devided among carriers. How many TATL passengers fly on American registered airlines and how many on European registered airlines?
 
Blerg
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:26 am

PatrickZ80 wrote:
HELyes wrote:
devron wrote:



Just a detail but it's better to say Europe-USA, to not get mixed with the EU (European Union)


True, because that includes countries like Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. Those are not EU-members, but they do have flights to the USA. However then you may ask, where to draw the border of Europe? Does Russia qualify as Europe? What about Turkey? They're not part of the European Common Aviation Area, but they are (partly) on the European continent.

PS would be interesting how this market is devided among carriers. How many TATL passengers fly on American registered airlines and how many on European registered airlines?


There's also Serbia, JU will increase JFK to six weekly this summer season.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:41 am

PatrickZ80 wrote:
HELyes wrote:
devron wrote:



Just a detail but it's better to say Europe-USA, to not get mixed with the EU (European Union)


True, because that includes countries like Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. Those are not EU-members, but they do have flights to the USA. However then you may ask, where to draw the border of Europe? Does Russia qualify as Europe? What about Turkey? They're not part of the European Common Aviation Area, but they are (partly) on the European continent.

PS would be interesting how this market is devided among carriers. How many TATL passengers fly on American registered airlines and how many on European registered airlines?


I don't know about the rest of Europe, but looking at the UK, most TATL traffic is served by UK airlines. Out of Heathrow VS have 4/5 frequencies on A330s, 787 & 747s), the same goes for BA with around 8 frequencies on 77Ws and 747s. Looking at the US 3, Delta only have 2 A330/767 frequencies and American take 4. It's similar when looking at SFO & LAX. You'll also notice BA are often the only airline serving certain US destinations from Heathrow, using A/C as big as 747s on daily frequencies.

Even at secondary airports like Manchester and Gatwick the traffic is pretty heavily biased towards Norwegian, VS and BA with MT topping up seasonally.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:47 am

PatrickZ80 wrote:
HELyes wrote:
devron wrote:



Just a detail but it's better to say Europe-USA, to not get mixed with the EU (European Union)


True, because that includes countries like Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. Those are not EU-members, but they do have flights to the USA. However then you may ask, where to draw the border of Europe? Does Russia qualify as Europe? What about Turkey? They're not part of the European Common Aviation Area, but they are (partly) on the European continent.

PS would be interesting how this market is devided among carriers. How many TATL passengers fly on American registered airlines and how many on European registered airlines?


Considering Europe and Asia are the same continent I consider the boundary to be cultural. That said, both Russia and Turkey tend to consider themselves more "east" than "west" so as countries I consider them Asian.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:39 pm

Jouhou wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:
HELyes wrote:


Just a detail but it's better to say Europe-USA, to not get mixed with the EU (European Union)


True, because that includes countries like Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. Those are not EU-members, but they do have flights to the USA. However then you may ask, where to draw the border of Europe? Does Russia qualify as Europe? What about Turkey? They're not part of the European Common Aviation Area, but they are (partly) on the European continent.

PS would be interesting how this market is devided among carriers. How many TATL passengers fly on American registered airlines and how many on European registered airlines?


Considering Europe and Asia are the same continent I consider the boundary to be cultural. That said, both Russia and Turkey tend to consider themselves more "east" than "west" so as countries I consider them Asian.


In aviation statistics both Russia and Turkey are included in Europe. In makes sense in the case of Russia, as the the majority of the population lives in the European part. It makes less sense regarding Turkey as both the bigger part of the population lives in the Asian part and the European part is tiny regarding area.

Geographically Europe is quite exactly defined if you would bother to read up on it. Geographically Europe and Asia are defined as separate continents.
 
Jerry123
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:48 pm

JamesCousins wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:
HELyes wrote:


Just a detail but it's better to say Europe-USA, to not get mixed with the EU (European Union)


True, because that includes countries like Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. Those are not EU-members, but they do have flights to the USA. However then you may ask, where to draw the border of Europe? Does Russia qualify as Europe? What about Turkey? They're not part of the European Common Aviation Area, but they are (partly) on the European continent.

PS would be interesting how this market is devided among carriers. How many TATL passengers fly on American registered airlines and how many on European registered airlines?


I don't know about the rest of Europe, but looking at the UK, most TATL traffic is served by UK airlines. Out of Heathrow VS have 4/5 frequencies on A330s, 787 & 747s), the same goes for BA with around 8 frequencies on 77Ws and 747s. Looking at the US 3, Delta only have 2 A330/767 frequencies and American take 4. It's similar when looking at SFO & LAX. You'll also notice BA are often the only airline serving certain US destinations from Heathrow, using A/C as big as 747s on daily frequencies.

Even at secondary airports like Manchester and Gatwick the traffic is pretty heavily biased towards Norwegian, VS and BA with MT topping up seasonally.

It's more confused than that because technically every BA flight is an AA flight and vice versa and every VS flight is a Delta flight and vice versa because of the joint ventures between them.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:58 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:

True, because that includes countries like Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. Those are not EU-members, but they do have flights to the USA. However then you may ask, where to draw the border of Europe? Does Russia qualify as Europe? What about Turkey? They're not part of the European Common Aviation Area, but they are (partly) on the European continent.

PS would be interesting how this market is devided among carriers. How many TATL passengers fly on American registered airlines and how many on European registered airlines?


Considering Europe and Asia are the same continent I consider the boundary to be cultural. That said, both Russia and Turkey tend to consider themselves more "east" than "west" so as countries I consider them Asian.


In aviation statistics both Russia and Turkey are included in Europe. In makes sense in the case of Russia, as the the majority of the population lives in the European part. It makes less sense regarding Turkey as both the bigger part of the population lives in the Asian part and the European part is tiny regarding area.

Geographically Europe is quite exactly defined if you would bother to read up on it. Geographically Europe and Asia are defined as separate continents.


Yes, this is how it is taught as geography, but then you learn geology and Europe isn't really even a subcontinent like India is, and Turkey is on its own plate as well.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:01 pm

Europe as a continent includes Russia west of the Ural mountain range, north of the Caucasus mountains as well as Turkey west of the Bosphorus strait, where Istanbul's historical city center is, as well as 2/3 of Istanbul's population.

Image
 
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klm617
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:06 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
It's huge, but it's also a bloodbath with more supply than demand leading to rock bottom fares.


That is an untruth the only real winners are the top 10 metro areas in the USA the rest of the country is still paying sky high fares to Europe. No one is asking these airlines to over serve these markets they are doing it on their own. There are many untapped markets in middle America that the airlines are ignoring where they could get better yield because of the lack of competition.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:10 pm

Jerry123 wrote:
JamesCousins wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:

True, because that includes countries like Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. Those are not EU-members, but they do have flights to the USA. However then you may ask, where to draw the border of Europe? Does Russia qualify as Europe? What about Turkey? They're not part of the European Common Aviation Area, but they are (partly) on the European continent.

PS would be interesting how this market is devided among carriers. How many TATL passengers fly on American registered airlines and how many on European registered airlines?


I don't know about the rest of Europe, but looking at the UK, most TATL traffic is served by UK airlines. Out of Heathrow VS have 4/5 frequencies on A330s, 787 & 747s), the same goes for BA with around 8 frequencies on 77Ws and 747s. Looking at the US 3, Delta only have 2 A330/767 frequencies and American take 4. It's similar when looking at SFO & LAX. You'll also notice BA are often the only airline serving certain US destinations from Heathrow, using A/C as big as 747s on daily frequencies.

Even at secondary airports like Manchester and Gatwick the traffic is pretty heavily biased towards Norwegian, VS and BA with MT topping up seasonally.

It's more confused than that because technically every BA flight is an AA flight and vice versa and every VS flight is a Delta flight and vice versa because of the joint ventures between them.


It does get pretty complicated, however the fact that VS and BA have always, even pre codeshares, operated more flights on their own metal is pretty telling. AA and DL work with BA and VS to try and get all of the connecting traffic, in return selling tickets on more flights than are being sold on their own for the TATL sector.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:11 pm

https://blueswandaily.com/air-capacity- ... w-heights/

"An analysis by The Blue Swan Daily of OAG data shows that scheduled air capacity between Europe and North America will grow beyond 70 million seats in the forthcoming summer 2018 flight schedules, according to provisional flight schedules for the period. Total two-way seats are expected to increase by 7.3% versus last summer, up from 68.8 million to 73.8 million seats.

This will be the fifth consecutive year of capacity growth in the market, with the expected rate of growth up on last year (6.6%), but down on the five year average (7.7%). The expected summer growth follows a 5.9% increase in winter capacity during the current winter 2017/2018 schedule (versus winter 2016/2017)."

Image

Largest TATL carriers by two way capacity: 1. DL, 2. UA, 3. AA, 4. BA, than 5. LH
 
MalevTU134
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:18 pm

JamesCousins wrote:
Jerry123 wrote:
JamesCousins wrote:

I don't know about the rest of Europe, but looking at the UK, most TATL traffic is served by UK airlines. Out of Heathrow VS have 4/5 frequencies on A330s, 787 & 747s), the same goes for BA with around 8 frequencies on 77Ws and 747s. Looking at the US 3, Delta only have 2 A330/767 frequencies and American take 4. It's similar when looking at SFO & LAX. You'll also notice BA are often the only airline serving certain US destinations from Heathrow, using A/C as big as 747s on daily frequencies.

Even at secondary airports like Manchester and Gatwick the traffic is pretty heavily biased towards Norwegian, VS and BA with MT topping up seasonally.

It's more confused than that because technically every BA flight is an AA flight and vice versa and every VS flight is a Delta flight and vice versa because of the joint ventures between them.


It does get pretty complicated, however the fact that VS and BA have always, even pre codeshares, operated more flights on their own metal is pretty telling. AA and DL work with BA and VS to try and get all of the connecting traffic, in return selling tickets on more flights than are being sold on their own for the TATL sector.

A little UK-centred (or even LHR-centred), are we? There's more to Europe than just the United Kingdom.... In fact, the 3 top airlines with regards to TA traffic are the US3.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:22 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
Europe as a continent includes Russia west of the Ural mountain range, north of the Caucasus mountains as well as Turkey west of the Bosphorus strait, where Istanbul's historical city center is, as well as 2/3 of Istanbul's population.

Image


Image

Just saying, the traditional boundaries are culturally defined, and I've found Russia and Turkey to increasingly reject European culture.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:44 pm

The OP is going to have to show a lot more effort and understanding before I take any time with this. Among other things, there's a lot more to 'America' than the U.S.A.
 
Blerg
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:49 pm

klm617 wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:
It's huge, but it's also a bloodbath with more supply than demand leading to rock bottom fares.


That is an untruth the only real winners are the top 10 metro areas in the USA the rest of the country is still paying sky high fares to Europe. No one is asking these airlines to over serve these markets they are doing it on their own. There are many untapped markets in middle America that the airlines are ignoring where they could get better yield because of the lack of competition.


What cities did you have in mind? We have cities like Denver or Salt Lake City which have non-stop flights to Europe but that's mostly because they are home to large hubs. Icelandair and WOW have been doing a fine job linking these secondary cities with Europe.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:03 pm

klm617 wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:
It's huge, but it's also a bloodbath with more supply than demand leading to rock bottom fares.


That is an untruth the only real winners are the top 10 metro areas in the USA the rest of the country is still paying sky high fares to Europe. No one is asking these airlines to over serve these markets they are doing it on their own. There are many untapped markets in middle America that the airlines are ignoring where they could get better yield because of the lack of competition.



Thank you for saying this, 1000 times over.
This is true for both TATL and TPAC. Fares from the non-major gateway cities are usually extremely high , often by a 2x or more multiplier.

I am curious - for those of you in large EU metros who enjoy low TATL fares, if you needed to go to Little Rock or Des Moines, would you still consider TATL inexpensive?
 
MalevTU134
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:32 pm

FlyHappy wrote:
klm617 wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:
It's huge, but it's also a bloodbath with more supply than demand leading to rock bottom fares.


That is an untruth the only real winners are the top 10 metro areas in the USA the rest of the country is still paying sky high fares to Europe. No one is asking these airlines to over serve these markets they are doing it on their own. There are many untapped markets in middle America that the airlines are ignoring where they could get better yield because of the lack of competition.



Thank you for saying this, 1000 times over.
This is true for both TATL and TPAC. Fares from the non-major gateway cities are usually extremely high , often by a 2x or more multiplier.

I am curious - for those of you in large EU metros who enjoy low TATL fares, if you needed to go to Little Rock or Des Moines, would you still consider TATL inexpensive?

Absolutely. An example: Stockholm - Des Moines March 27 - April 9 (over Easter holiday) can be had at roughly USD400 (SEK 3,232) return, incl. taxes and fees on BA/AA. And Stockholm isn't even a "large EU metro"...

https://www.sembo.se/d/flight/flights.a ... bGMpkQcAfw
Last edited by MalevTU134 on Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
airbazar
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:32 pm

klm617 wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:
It's huge, but it's also a bloodbath with more supply than demand leading to rock bottom fares.


That is an untruth the only real winners are the top 10 metro areas in the USA the rest of the country is still paying sky high fares to Europe. No one is asking these airlines to over serve these markets they are doing it on their own. There are many untapped markets in middle America that the airlines are ignoring where they could get better yield because of the lack of competition.

I live in Boston which has a ton of TATL flight and being from Europe myself, we travel there 2 or 3 times a year. The fares aren't cheap. In the last couple of years I have traveled to California, Mexico and Alaska. All similar distances than Europe and all at a fraction of what I pay to go to Europe. So outside of routes like NYC-LHR, I doubt very much that TATL is a bloodbath. We have come a long way since the days of $99 tickets, all included. It is true however, that in the off-season we can find cheap fares to Europe but that is exists because full fares and J fares are really high which offsets the lower fares in Y.
Here's and example: A year ago I traveled to India from BOS on BA in J and paid $2900 R/T. At half the distance, you cannot buy a TATL J ticket for that little money, anywhere.
 
devron
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:48 pm

Hi All, the number I quoted was listed on this site

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics ... nsport.jpg

It is EU so the statement was correct. The USA statement no-one seemed to care about was btw incorrect
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:06 pm

Jouhou wrote:

Just saying, the traditional boundaries are culturally defined, and I've found Russia and Turkey to increasingly reject European culture.


I agree with that. I believe Samuel Huntington pretty much nailed it with regards to various cultures. If you look at North America, the US and Canada have pretty similar cultures, while Mexico has a quite different one. They're still all in North America.
 
Route66
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:17 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
https://blueswandaily.com/air-capacity-between-europe-and-north-america-set-to-hit-new-heights/

"An analysis by The Blue Swan Daily of OAG data shows that scheduled air capacity between Europe and North America will grow beyond 70 million seats in the forthcoming summer 2018 flight schedules, according to provisional flight schedules for the period. Total two-way seats are expected to increase by 7.3% versus last summer, up from 68.8 million to 73.8 million seats.

This will be the fifth consecutive year of capacity growth in the market, with the expected rate of growth up on last year (6.6%), but down on the five year average (7.7%). The expected summer growth follows a 5.9% increase in winter capacity during the current winter 2017/2018 schedule (versus winter 2016/2017)."

Image

Largest TATL carriers by two way capacity: 1. DL, 2. UA, 3. AA, 4. BA, than 5. LH


That's interesting to see the actual numbers in a big yellow graph. Certainly lays to rest the anet proclamation last year that foreign travel to the US would plummet because of its President..
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:25 pm

Route66 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
https://blueswandaily.com/air-capacity-between-europe-and-north-america-set-to-hit-new-heights/

"An analysis by The Blue Swan Daily of OAG data shows that scheduled air capacity between Europe and North America will grow beyond 70 million seats in the forthcoming summer 2018 flight schedules, according to provisional flight schedules for the period. Total two-way seats are expected to increase by 7.3% versus last summer, up from 68.8 million to 73.8 million seats.

This will be the fifth consecutive year of capacity growth in the market, with the expected rate of growth up on last year (6.6%), but down on the five year average (7.7%). The expected summer growth follows a 5.9% increase in winter capacity during the current winter 2017/2018 schedule (versus winter 2016/2017)."

Image

Largest TATL carriers by two way capacity: 1. DL, 2. UA, 3. AA, 4. BA, than 5. LH


That's interesting to see the actual numbers in a big yellow graph. Certainly lays to rest the anet proclamation last year that foreign travel to the US would plummet because of its President..


That's "North America". Also major us destinations for foreigners tend to be very blue cities that reject trumpist attitudes. I doubt the rhetoric has *helped*
 
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klm617
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:09 pm

airbazar wrote:
klm617 wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:
It's huge, but it's also a bloodbath with more supply than demand leading to rock bottom fares.


That is an untruth the only real winners are the top 10 metro areas in the USA the rest of the country is still paying sky high fares to Europe. No one is asking these airlines to over serve these markets they are doing it on their own. There are many untapped markets in middle America that the airlines are ignoring where they could get better yield because of the lack of competition.

I live in Boston which has a ton of TATL flight and being from Europe myself, we travel there 2 or 3 times a year. The fares aren't cheap. In the last couple of years I have traveled to California, Mexico and Alaska. All similar distances than Europe and all at a fraction of what I pay to go to Europe. So outside of routes like NYC-LHR, I doubt very much that TATL is a bloodbath. We have come a long way since the days of $99 tickets, all included. It is true however, that in the off-season we can find cheap fares to Europe but that is exists because full fares and J fares are really high which offsets the lower fares in Y.
Here's and example: A year ago I traveled to India from BOS on BA in J and paid $2900 R/T. At half the distance, you cannot buy a TATL J ticket for that little money, anywhere.



I'm pretty sure EK had cheaper fares from BOS to India than BA not to mention you have 3 dailies on Icelandair and Noreweign please don't tell me cheap fares can not be had out of BOS to Europe and India.
 
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klm617
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:13 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
klm617 wrote:

That is an untruth the only real winners are the top 10 metro areas in the USA the rest of the country is still paying sky high fares to Europe. No one is asking these airlines to over serve these markets they are doing it on their own. There are many untapped markets in middle America that the airlines are ignoring where they could get better yield because of the lack of competition.



Thank you for saying this, 1000 times over.
This is true for both TATL and TPAC. Fares from the non-major gateway cities are usually extremely high , often by a 2x or more multiplier.

I am curious - for those of you in large EU metros who enjoy low TATL fares, if you needed to go to Little Rock or Des Moines, would you still consider TATL inexpensive?

Absolutely. An example: Stockholm - Des Moines March 27 - April 9 (over Easter holiday) can be had at roughly USD400 (SEK 3,232) return, incl. taxes and fees on BA/AA. And Stockholm isn't even a "large EU metro"...

https://www.sembo.se/d/flight/flights.a ... bGMpkQcAfw



Now try the reverse from DSM to ARN and you'll find it's almost 3 times the price.
 
MalevTU134
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:21 pm

klm617 wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:


Thank you for saying this, 1000 times over.
This is true for both TATL and TPAC. Fares from the non-major gateway cities are usually extremely high , often by a 2x or more multiplier.

I am curious - for those of you in large EU metros who enjoy low TATL fares, if you needed to go to Little Rock or Des Moines, would you still consider TATL inexpensive?

Absolutely. An example: Stockholm - Des Moines March 27 - April 9 (over Easter holiday) can be had at roughly USD400 (SEK 3,232) return, incl. taxes and fees on BA/AA. And Stockholm isn't even a "large EU metro"...

https://www.sembo.se/d/flight/flights.a ... bGMpkQcAfw



Now try the reverse from DSM to ARN and you'll find it's almost 3 times the price.

Oh, absolutely. Which says something about the local clientele...
 
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klm617
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:22 pm

Blerg wrote:
klm617 wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:
It's huge, but it's also a bloodbath with more supply than demand leading to rock bottom fares.


That is an untruth the only real winners are the top 10 metro areas in the USA the rest of the country is still paying sky high fares to Europe. No one is asking these airlines to over serve these markets they are doing it on their own. There are many untapped markets in middle America that the airlines are ignoring where they could get better yield because of the lack of competition.


What cities did you have in mind? We have cities like Denver or Salt Lake City which have non-stop flights to Europe but that's mostly because they are home to large hubs. Icelandair and WOW have been doing a fine job linking these secondary cities with Europe.


DEN foes have a vast array of low cost options. Lacking are cities like STL, IND, MEM, DTW, MKE, BNA, CVG, CMH, SDF, YWG, ATL, CLT what warrants 5 to 10 low cost flights a day from cities like BOS, JFK, EWR when a lot of that is feed from these smaller cities.
 
devron
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:53 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
Absolutely. An example: Stockholm - Des Moines March 27 - April 9 (over Easter holiday) can be had at roughly USD400 (SEK 3,232) return, incl. taxes and fees on BA/AA. And Stockholm isn't even a "large EU metro"...

https://www.sembo.se/d/flight/flights.a ... bGMpkQcAfw



Now try the reverse from DSM to ARN and you'll find it's almost 3 times the price.

Oh, absolutely. Which says something about the local clientele...


Really who want to fly to des moises from stockholm? I can imagine the other way arround I have been in both cities.Prices from Norway, Denmark, and sweden to the USA are dirt cheap nowadays.
 
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PatrickZ80
Posts: 4688
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:55 pm

klm617 wrote:
DEN foes have a vast array of low cost options. Lacking are cities like STL, IND, MEM, DTW, MKE, BNA, CVG, CMH, SDF, YWG, ATL, CLT what warrants 5 to 10 low cost flights a day from cities like BOS, JFK, EWR when a lot of that is feed from these smaller cities.


True, but from those places you can always take a cheap flight to a city that is served by a TATL LCC. Spirit and Frontier for example almost always offer a flight to New York or Fort Lauderdale or even Los Angeles if you have to. Those flights cost almost nothing and from there you can take a Norwegian flight to Europe. That Norwegian flight might not take you to your final European destination, but don't worry. There's EasyJet and Ryanair to help you out. It's a bit of a puzzle, but always possible.
 
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stl07
Posts: 2914
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:58 pm

Jouhou wrote:
Route66 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
https://blueswandaily.com/air-capacity-between-europe-and-north-america-set-to-hit-new-heights/

"An analysis by The Blue Swan Daily of OAG data shows that scheduled air capacity between Europe and North America will grow beyond 70 million seats in the forthcoming summer 2018 flight schedules, according to provisional flight schedules for the period. Total two-way seats are expected to increase by 7.3% versus last summer, up from 68.8 million to 73.8 million seats.

This will be the fifth consecutive year of capacity growth in the market, with the expected rate of growth up on last year (6.6%), but down on the five year average (7.7%). The expected summer growth follows a 5.9% increase in winter capacity during the current winter 2017/2018 schedule (versus winter 2016/2017)."

Image

Largest TATL carriers by two way capacity: 1. DL, 2. UA, 3. AA, 4. BA, than 5. LH


That's interesting to see the actual numbers in a big yellow graph. Certainly lays to rest the anet proclamation last year that foreign travel to the US would plummet because of its President..


That's "North America". Also major us destinations for foreigners tend to be very blue cities that reject trumpist attitudes. I doubt the rhetoric has *helped*

Out of every TATL market in the US, only ANC is red. Cities with blue people are typically perceived as more accepting and diverse, and whether true or not, that's where foreigners want to go because they are different from the general population
 
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klm617
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:00 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
DEN foes have a vast array of low cost options. Lacking are cities like STL, IND, MEM, DTW, MKE, BNA, CVG, CMH, SDF, YWG, ATL, CLT what warrants 5 to 10 low cost flights a day from cities like BOS, JFK, EWR when a lot of that is feed from these smaller cities.


True, but from those places you can always take a cheap flight to a city that is served by a TATL LCC. Spirit and Frontier for example almost always offer a flight to New York or Fort Lauderdale or even Los Angeles if you have to. Those flights cost almost nothing and from there you can take a Norwegian flight to Europe. That Norwegian flight might not take you to your final European destination, but don't worry. There's EasyJet and Ryanair to help you out. It's a bit of a puzzle, but always possible.



What are you talking about once you add bag fees and the like you might as well fly right from your own city on a legacy and I'm sorry my confidence in either NK of F9's reliability to get me to the connecting airport to catch the onward flight is not very high. I am also not for artificially inflating passenger numbers from other airport while degrading my own airport's O/D numbers further guaranteeing no added service from my city.
 
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NickolayAv
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:06 pm

klm617 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
klm617 wrote:

That is an untruth the only real winners are the top 10 metro areas in the USA the rest of the country is still paying sky high fares to Europe. No one is asking these airlines to over serve these markets they are doing it on their own. There are many untapped markets in middle America that the airlines are ignoring where they could get better yield because of the lack of competition.


What cities did you have in mind? We have cities like Denver or Salt Lake City which have non-stop flights to Europe but that's mostly because they are home to large hubs. Icelandair and WOW have been doing a fine job linking these secondary cities with Europe.


DEN foes have a vast array of low cost options. Lacking are cities like STL, IND, MEM, DTW, MKE, BNA, CVG, CMH, SDF, YWG, ATL, CLT what warrants 5 to 10 low cost flights a day from cities like BOS, JFK, EWR when a lot of that is feed from these smaller cities.

Go to viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1387949&p=20221333&hilit=yoy#p20221333 .
In the discussion, it shows the amount of connecting traffic in each airport. JFK is last on the list of 30 airports. EWR and BOS didn't even make the list. On the other hand, DTW and ATL are on the list. I don't know a lot about the New York airports, but BOS is almost exclusively O/D with very little connecting passengers.
 
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adamh8297
Posts: 3310
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Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:32 pm

NickolayAv wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Blerg wrote:

What cities did you have in mind? We have cities like Denver or Salt Lake City which have non-stop flights to Europe but that's mostly because they are home to large hubs. Icelandair and WOW have been doing a fine job linking these secondary cities with Europe.


DEN foes have a vast array of low cost options. Lacking are cities like STL, IND, MEM, DTW, MKE, BNA, CVG, CMH, SDF, YWG, ATL, CLT what warrants 5 to 10 low cost flights a day from cities like BOS, JFK, EWR when a lot of that is feed from these smaller cities.

Go to viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1387949&p=20221333&hilit=yoy#p20221333 .
In the discussion, it shows the amount of connecting traffic in each airport. JFK is last on the list of 30 airports. EWR and BOS didn't even make the list. On the other hand, DTW and ATL are on the list. I don't know a lot about the New York airports, but BOS is almost exclusively O/D with very little connecting passengers.


Though not ATL or DFW, "very little connecting passengers" is not the correct term and actually never really has been especially for international and the times are changing at BOS and massport is preparing for it wisely. "Very little" for Domestic does makes sense due to geography even with the regional Cape Airs and PenAirs at BOS.

Go back to the AA hub in BOS in late 90's early 2000's. LHR flights and the seasonals (MAN/SNN took their share of domestic feed). When PMUS was in *A they surely fed LH! Same goes for PMNW - Those BOS-AMS flights had feed and was set up nicely in Terminal E for this purpose due to the former NW BOS hub.

Currently for recently launched flights to BOS, TP BOS-LIS is about 30% connections in BOS to B6. Many are double connecting aka SFO-BOS-LIS-NCE for example. Excellent article on this: http://crankyflier.com/2017/10/17/30-of ... tnerships/

Wouldn't surprise me if EK is around that mark too especially when it was double daily BOS-DXB. QR takes a lot of feed from AC of all airlines in BOS.

Self-connects are happening in BOS too. Check out this help thread on ifly.com - plenty of "I'm flying NK/WN and connecting to MT/DY/WW/S4 in BOS on a separate ticket" etc. Many of these passengers didn't do their homework before double ticketing as well!!!

https://www.ifly.com/logan-internationa ... onnections
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:42 pm

klm617 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
klm617 wrote:

That is an untruth the only real winners are the top 10 metro areas in the USA the rest of the country is still paying sky high fares to Europe. No one is asking these airlines to over serve these markets they are doing it on their own. There are many untapped markets in middle America that the airlines are ignoring where they could get better yield because of the lack of competition.


What cities did you have in mind? We have cities like Denver or Salt Lake City which have non-stop flights to Europe but that's mostly because they are home to large hubs. Icelandair and WOW have been doing a fine job linking these secondary cities with Europe.


DEN foes have a vast array of low cost options. Lacking are cities like STL, IND, MEM, DTW, MKE, BNA, CVG, CMH, SDF, YWG, ATL, CLT what warrants 5 to 10 low cost flights a day from cities like BOS, JFK, EWR when a lot of that is feed from these smaller cities.

I am going to push back that some of these are lacking. Some cities like DTW/CLT/ATL have way more TATL seats than the O&D demands. Even if it is pricy, the market is already flooded with lots of seats. It is no wonder that DTW has had the lowest bookings of the midwest WOW service, CVG/STL/PIT have all been upguaged and increased frequency. DTW for example has 4 flights a day to AMS alone, even if a low cost carrier comes in, they are going to have little effect on pricing. Flooding the market is also not going to help matters (the O&D isn't there to begin with) and is exactly why all the LCC's are not lining up to serve DTW-XXX like some here insist.

CVG/STL/PIT/IND/CLE/BNA are adequately served for TATL service with the 1-3 flights a day they have and cities like MKE/SDF/CMH have plenty of options within a 1-2 hour drive surrounding them. The LCC's will probably continue to add some flights to these midsized markets without large hubs.

As you said, passengers mostly go through larger hubs to get to these European cities and there is nothing wrong with that. There is no difference for a pax going XXX-NYC-XXX or XXX-Europe-XXX, I don't get the obsession that connecting in Europe is better. You are going through customs in each country either way, the order is just flipped. Unless the city can support many direct flights to XXX cities in Europe (which airports that you listed like STL, IND, MEM, DTW, MKE, BNA, CVG, CMH, SDF, etc can't), connecting to a larger hub is the next best option for the majority of European cities.
 
Jerry123
Posts: 321
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 9:58 pm

Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:50 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
JamesCousins wrote:
Jerry123 wrote:
It's more confused than that because technically every BA flight is an AA flight and vice versa and every VS flight is a Delta flight and vice versa because of the joint ventures between them.


It does get pretty complicated, however the fact that VS and BA have always, even pre codeshares, operated more flights on their own metal is pretty telling. AA and DL work with BA and VS to try and get all of the connecting traffic, in return selling tickets on more flights than are being sold on their own for the TATL sector.

A little UK-centred (or even LHR-centred), are we? There's more to Europe than just the United Kingdom.... In fact, the 3 top airlines with regards to TA traffic are the US3.

And the busiest trans Atlantic route is London to New York with over 30 daily flights.
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2189
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:52 pm

Jerry123 wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
JamesCousins wrote:

It does get pretty complicated, however the fact that VS and BA have always, even pre codeshares, operated more flights on their own metal is pretty telling. AA and DL work with BA and VS to try and get all of the connecting traffic, in return selling tickets on more flights than are being sold on their own for the TATL sector.

A little UK-centred (or even LHR-centred), are we? There's more to Europe than just the United Kingdom.... In fact, the 3 top airlines with regards to TA traffic are the US3.

And the busiest trans Atlantic route is London to New York with over 30 daily flights.

And yet, that is a minuscule part of all US-Europe flights - which is the scope of this thread, as per the OP.
 
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klm617
Posts: 5467
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:20 pm

cvgComair wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Blerg wrote:

What cities did you have in mind? We have cities like Denver or Salt Lake City which have non-stop flights to Europe but that's mostly because they are home to large hubs. Icelandair and WOW have been doing a fine job linking these secondary cities with Europe.


DEN foes have a vast array of low cost options. Lacking are cities like STL, IND, MEM, DTW, MKE, BNA, CVG, CMH, SDF, YWG, ATL, CLT what warrants 5 to 10 low cost flights a day from cities like BOS, JFK, EWR when a lot of that is feed from these smaller cities.

I am going to push back that some of these are lacking. Some cities like DTW/CLT/ATL have way more TATL seats than the O&D demands. Even if it is pricy, the market is already flooded with lots of seats. It is no wonder that DTW has had the lowest bookings of the midwest WOW service, CVG/STL/PIT have all been upguaged and increased frequency. DTW for example has 4 flights a day to AMS alone, even if a low cost carrier comes in, they are going to have little effect on pricing. Flooding the market is also not going to help matters (the O&D isn't there to begin with) and is exactly why all the LCC's are not lining up to serve DTW-XXX like some here insist.

CVG/STL/PIT/IND/CLE/BNA are adequately served for TATL service with the 1-3 flights a day they have and cities like MKE/SDF/CMH have plenty of options within a 1-2 hour drive surrounding them. The LCC's will probably continue to add some flights to these midsized markets without large hubs.

As you said, passengers mostly go through larger hubs to get to these European cities and there is nothing wrong with that. There is no difference for a pax going XXX-NYC-XXX or XXX-Europe-XXX, I don't get the obsession that connecting in Europe is better. You are going through customs in each country either way, the order is just flipped. Unless the city can support many direct flights to XXX cities in Europe (which airports that you listed like STL, IND, MEM, DTW, MKE, BNA, CVG, CMH, SDF, etc can't), connecting to a larger hub is the next best option for the majority of European cities.


But places like ATL/CLT/DTW need a low cost carrier to balance the playing field. The problem is that WOW Air has reliability issues and at is what is holding them back. FI would have been a much better option for Detroit. Booking 6 months out on WOW Air is a bit of a gamble as they are yet to be an establish carrier let alone entering a market like Detroit not to mention the horrible timing of the flights. Sorry but I'm not droving anywhere to save a hundred to two hundred dollars I would rather be flexible from my home airport and finding the cheapest airfare. All that practice does is further insure that you will never get a low farrier carrier to you city and all you do is further flood the already large markets with more service. I understand that these secondary markets don't have the same demand as the larger ones but could easily fill a thrice weekly flight to Europe. MSP-KEF is a great example of if you add a route they will come MSP-KEF wasn't even year round and now on some days during the summer it's 3 daily.
 
Jerry123
Posts: 321
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 9:58 pm

Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:32 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
Jerry123 wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
A little UK-centred (or even LHR-centred), are we? There's more to Europe than just the United Kingdom.... In fact, the 3 top airlines with regards to TA traffic are the US3.

And the busiest trans Atlantic route is London to New York with over 30 daily flights.

And yet, that is a minuscule part of all US-Europe flights - which is the scope of this thread, as per the OP.

30 flights a day is hardly minuscule! Lol
 
FlyHappy
Posts: 1158
Joined: Sat May 13, 2017 1:06 pm

Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:47 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:

Thank you for saying this, 1000 times over.
This is true for both TATL and TPAC. Fares from the non-major gateway cities are usually extremely high , often by a 2x or more multiplier.

I am curious - for those of you in large EU metros who enjoy low TATL fares, if you needed to go to Little Rock or Des Moines, would you still consider TATL inexpensive?

Absolutely. An example: Stockholm - Des Moines March 27 - April 9 (over Easter holiday) can be had at roughly USD400 (SEK 3,232) return, incl. taxes and fees on BA/AA. And Stockholm isn't even a "large EU metro"...

https://www.sembo.se/d/flight/flights.a ... bGMpkQcAfw


I'm assuming you are disagreeing with my statement that TATL/TPAC is far more expensive once you get past the major US gateway cities, based on your provided example - or maybe you aren't.
I cannot read Swedish, but I'll take your word that the link you provided is bookable (11 hr layover in ORD? ugh), and that it equates to around US $400 . Problem is - AA/BA fare ARN to DSM on your same days costs $1009 when booked from the US and even more if DSM to ARN.

I'd like to know if you think its possible to for US pax in Des Moines to book such absurdly low fare, because I don't.
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2189
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:12 pm

Jerry123 wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
Jerry123 wrote:
And the busiest trans Atlantic route is London to New York with over 30 daily flights.

And yet, that is a minuscule part of all US-Europe flights - which is the scope of this thread, as per the OP.

30 flights a day is hardly minuscule! Lol

Had you bothered to read through the thread, you would have noticed the Daily Mail article linked to by devron upthread. It says there are 2,464 daily flights, meaning that 30 flights on LHR-NYC constitute just over 1% of total Europe-US flights, so, yes, a miniscule and biased sample from which to draw conclusions as to the largest operators. Still laughing out loud, are you?
 
JamesCousins
Posts: 484
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 1:19 pm

Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:20 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
JamesCousins wrote:
Jerry123 wrote:
It's more confused than that because technically every BA flight is an AA flight and vice versa and every VS flight is a Delta flight and vice versa because of the joint ventures between them.


It does get pretty complicated, however the fact that VS and BA have always, even pre codeshares, operated more flights on their own metal is pretty telling. AA and DL work with BA and VS to try and get all of the connecting traffic, in return selling tickets on more flights than are being sold on their own for the TATL sector.

A little UK-centred (or even LHR-centred), are we? There's more to Europe than just the United Kingdom.... In fact, the 3 top airlines with regards to TA traffic are the US3.


I literally said in my original post that I was only touching on the UK side of things, I'll leave the rest of the EU to others more informed... :bouncy:
 
David_itl
Posts: 6456
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2001 7:39 am

Re: Size of US-Europe market

Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:23 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
And yet, that is a minuscule part of all US-Europe flights - which is the scope of this thread, as per the OP.


The thread is about the size of the market i.e. passenger numbers, Not the number of flights. Let's call it 69 million passengers for the total market in 2016, The UK's CAA annual statistics for that year show 19.2 million passengers routing UK-USA on scheduled services. Therefore, around 28% of the Europe-UK market is just UK-USA. If you think that is miniscule then perhaps you can help us by defining what you mean by that word.

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