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FA9295
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:46 pm

RJNUT wrote:
with all the scheduling issues for QX due to pilot shortage, do they REALLY need to maintain such frequency PDX-SEA at the expense of so much of their network cuts and substitutions elsewhere?

They're probably hoping to connect PDX passengers to SEA with some other markets, now including STL, apparently...
 
globalcabotage
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:56 pm

tphuang wrote:
Thanks as usual enilria.

What an interesting week for AA!
enilria wrote:

*AA CLT-PDX JUL 1.0>1.9 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2
AA CLT-SEA JUN 3>4 JUL 2>4 AUG 2>4 SEP 2>4 OCT 2>4 NOV 2>4
AA DFW-PDX SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5
AA DFW-SEA SEP 9>10 OCT 9>10
*AA ORD-PDX JUN 1.2>3 JUL 1.0>3 AUG 1.0>3 SEP 1.0>3 OCT 1.0>3 NOV 1.0>3
AA ORD-SEA JUN 4>6 JUL 3>6 AUG 3>6 SEP 3>6 OCT 3>6 NOV 3>6

Who wants to fly from ORD-PSP in late summer?

A lot of adds to SEA/PDX this week. Makes a lot of sense since this is a major weak point.
AA DCA-MCO JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5 SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5 NOV 6>5

B6/WN are happy here

Slot sitting?
*AA JFK-BOS JUN 3>5 JUL 2>5 AUG 2>5 SEP 2>5 OCT 2>5 NOV 2>5
AA JFK-BWI JUN 1.0>1.8
*AA JFK-CLE JUN 1.2>3 JUL 1.0>3 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2
*AA JFK-LAS JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 2>3 OCT 2>3 NOV 2>3
*AA JFK-ORF JUN 1.2>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2
AA JFK-RDU JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4
AA JFK-SAN JUN 3>1.8
AA JFK-SEA JUN 3>1.8
Here's where the slots above came from
**AA PHL-JFK JUN 6>1.9 JUL 6>1.0 AUG 6>1.0 SEP 6>1.0 OCT 6>1.0 NOV 6>1.0

really seems like AA is just throwing darts on a board out of JFK and hope something would work. If they are going cut JFK-PHL down from 6 to 1, I don't understand why they are still keeping it at all?

JFK-SAN/SEA is just readjustment to what they've run last summer. Not a surprise. I'm sure we will see rest of summer cut back to 2 a daily for those 2. Bigger question is if the lie flats are coming. If not, the yields will be really bad this summer.
JFK-LAS is a surprise. I personally think this route is in a lot of trouble. It's becoming another LAX-MCO in yield. I wouldn't be surprised if this gets cut in the next year.
AA LAX-RDU NOV 1.0>1.7

hope they keep trying 2 daily here to compete with DL
AA ORD-BOS JUN 9>10 JUL 9>10 AUG 9>11 SEP 9>10 OCT 9>11 NOV 9>11

reaction to B6 increases?

jetbluefan1 wrote:
enilria wrote:
Putting recent changes together, big capacity drop for AS
**AS DEN-SFO JUN 2>0.3 JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0 OCT 2>0 NOV 2>0


This was speculated last week and now confirmed. DEN is a Top 10 domestic destination...if AS couldn't make this work, then it makes me question their overall plan for SFO. Perhaps moving more capacity to SJC at some point?


If that actually happens, then they basically wasted $2.6 billion.
 
usairways85
Posts: 4031
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:19 pm

enilria wrote:
AA PHL-RDU JUN 8>6 JUL 8>6 AUG 8>6 SEP 8>6 OCT 8>6 NOV 8>6

Mainline upgauges

6/25
PHL-RDU
2x 319, 2x 320, 1x 190, 1x E75

There are a bit more mainline flights at PHL
6/25 Mainline flights (among other RJ flights not listed)
PHL-STL - 1x 738
PHL-MCI - 2x 190
PHL-DTW - 2x 319
PHL-BNA - 2x 190, 1x 319
PHL-BDL - 1x 319
PHL-AUS - 1x 320, 1x 319
PHL-PIT - 1x 190, 2x 319
PHL-PVD - 1x 190, 1x 319
PHL-MHT - 2x 190

PHL-MSP - 3x 190, 1x 319
 
Wingtips56
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:21 pm

EvanWSFO wrote:
yellowtail wrote:
ahj2000 wrote:
Thanks Enilria!

Seems AA wants to expand in Portland. The CLT has been a tad under 2 in summers past but the 2 extra ORD flights are new right?

Sad to see AA cut Bolivia (and subject it to the 7M8) but I suppose LA/LP Lima connections will Be available for those who need them. I wonder how much market share will be lost to Copa/Avianca over Panamá and Bogotá.


The are not cutting Bolivia. Seems the flight is being moved from La Paz (LPB) to Santa Cruz (VVI)


Am I correct that LPB cannot carry a full compliment of pax and cargo to MIA, which is why the VVI stop?

AA has always run a round-robin MIA-LPB-VVI-MIA because the 4,061.5 m (13,325 ft) elevation at LPB prohibits a full load LPB-MIA. They fly down hill to VVI on a low fuel load, and can then return full VVI-MIA. I really don't think the 7M8 is a factor. It's always been a difficult market partially because they cannot strand a crew at the LPB for any length of time if the aircraft goes tech; we're talking not much more than a couple of hours. By contract, AA had to deadhead the crew out of LPB, generally to VVI on a local carrier, and then fly them back when the aircraft was fixed. MIA-VVI through passengers tended to be stuck in LPB in the interim. And if they had to overfly LPB due to weather, pax would then be stuck at VVI.

I am sorry AA is leaving LPB. It's quite an interesting place, which even allows day trips out to Lake Titicaca and a site of ancient ruins. And I met great AA employees there on a training assignment back in the early 90's. I did get altitude-sick about 3 days in, which cleared as soon as I got down to VVI. (Great AA folks at VVI and in the SRZ city office too. I wonder if they will move RES and the accounting office out of LPB.) Funny aside, I left home in SMF at around 25 ft above sea level: on arriving in my hotel in LPB, my bottles and tubes of stuff were all bloated to the point that some split. When I took the cap off the toothpaste tube, toothpaste shot out about 18"-2 feet.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
gwrudolph
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:01 am

Chuska wrote:
I read a recent trip report where someone flew AA SFO-PHL on the 332. When did that start, and is this swapping the aircraft from SFO to LAX?

The SFO-LAX A330 will stay as well. Looks like that started back last October. TWA did both of these transcons with L-1011's in the 70's, nice to see AA bringing back the widebodies although they probably have no idea that TWA did it over 40 years ago.


US Airways flew 767s on PHL-SFO and PHL-LAX in the 90s and United flew DC10s and 767s for many years on both routes as well
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:13 am

kondoo wrote:
Chuska wrote:
Yes, AA is dropping LPB altogether. No longer in the website effective July 4. Possibly due to 757 retirements?



Mostly because they are a bunch of idiots. They could not make a route work where they had a monopoly. Heard they could not get good yields anywhere (go figure)

Monopoly doesn't equal cash cow.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
phluser
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:01 am

jetbluefan1 wrote:
This was speculated last week and now confirmed. DEN is a Top 10 domestic destination...if AS couldn't make this work, then it makes me question their overall plan for SFO. Perhaps moving more capacity to SJC at some point?


I think the deletion of SFO-DEN and MSP with the thought then that AS will be ending it's hub in SFO is an overreaction. It could be just needing the planes to start service at PAE, and choosing competitive and underperforming routes that haven't really matured in their network. They were newer routes added by in 2016 or later. At some point, I wouldn't be surprised if AS resumed SFO-DEN/MSP. DAL-DCA/LGA is less strategically fitted in it's network, and AS might be trying to sell these in perimeter slots, in which B6 should be interested.
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:22 am

phluser wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
This was speculated last week and now confirmed. DEN is a Top 10 domestic destination...if AS couldn't make this work, then it makes me question their overall plan for SFO. Perhaps moving more capacity to SJC at some point?


I think the deletion of SFO-DEN and MSP with the thought then that AS will be ending it's hub in SFO is an overreaction. It could be just needing the planes to start service at PAE, and choosing competitive and underperforming routes that haven't really matured in their network. They were newer routes added by in 2016 or later. At some point, I wouldn't be surprised if AS resumed SFO-DEN/MSP. DAL-DCA/LGA is less strategically fitted in it's network, and AS might be trying to sell these in perimeter slots, in which B6 should be interested.


I wasn’t implying the dismantling of the SFO hub. At the time of the AS/VX merger, some people predicted a build up at SFO and the possibility that the SJC focus city status would suffer due to the SFO hub, that they wouldn’t continue building up SJC especially with the proximity to SFO. This doesn’t seem to be the trend. SJC continues to grow, and SFO has been losing flights. True, we can’t come to any final conclusions, but we *might* be seeing a trend. Doesn’t that seem possible?
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:26 am

phluser wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
This was speculated last week and now confirmed. DEN is a Top 10 domestic destination...if AS couldn't make this work, then it makes me question their overall plan for SFO. Perhaps moving more capacity to SJC at some point?


I think the deletion of SFO-DEN and MSP with the thought then that AS will be ending it's hub in SFO is an overreaction. It could be just needing the planes to start service at PAE, and choosing competitive and underperforming routes that haven't really matured in their network. They were newer routes added by in 2016 or later. At some point, I wouldn't be surprised if AS resumed SFO-DEN/MSP. DAL-DCA/LGA is less strategically fitted in it's network, and AS might be trying to sell these in perimeter slots, in which B6 should be interested.


It is still problematic for AS, but does not herald the end of the hub. The #1 player in any hub tends to take the most profits and I’m sure it’s hard for the finance team at AS to compare the margins on incremental adds at SEA vs less profitable and lower frequency adds at SFO. They’ll figure out their equilibrium over time, but for now they may have overestimated a few markets.
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:42 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
phluser wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
This was speculated last week and now confirmed. DEN is a Top 10 domestic destination...if AS couldn't make this work, then it makes me question their overall plan for SFO. Perhaps moving more capacity to SJC at some point?


I think the deletion of SFO-DEN and MSP with the thought then that AS will be ending it's hub in SFO is an overreaction. It could be just needing the planes to start service at PAE, and choosing competitive and underperforming routes that haven't really matured in their network. They were newer routes added by in 2016 or later. At some point, I wouldn't be surprised if AS resumed SFO-DEN/MSP. DAL-DCA/LGA is less strategically fitted in it's network, and AS might be trying to sell these in perimeter slots, in which B6 should be interested.


It is still problematic for AS, but does not herald the end of the hub. The #1 player in any hub tends to take the most profits and I’m sure it’s hard for the finance team at AS to compare the margins on incremental adds at SEA vs less profitable and lower frequency adds at SFO. They’ll figure out their equilibrium over time, but for now they may have overestimated a few markets.


If you are an SFO guy, maybe you can fill us in on the timeline of the construction of the terminals there? The impression I got from reading this forum is that gates will be in short supply well into the 2020s. If true, how will AS build up at SFO?
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:54 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
phluser wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
This was speculated last week and now confirmed. DEN is a Top 10 domestic destination...if AS couldn't make this work, then it makes me question their overall plan for SFO. Perhaps moving more capacity to SJC at some point?


I think the deletion of SFO-DEN and MSP with the thought then that AS will be ending it's hub in SFO is an overreaction. It could be just needing the planes to start service at PAE, and choosing competitive and underperforming routes that haven't really matured in their network. They were newer routes added by in 2016 or later. At some point, I wouldn't be surprised if AS resumed SFO-DEN/MSP. DAL-DCA/LGA is less strategically fitted in it's network, and AS might be trying to sell these in perimeter slots, in which B6 should be interested.


It is still problematic for AS, but does not herald the end of the hub. The #1 player in any hub tends to take the most profits and I’m sure it’s hard for the finance team at AS to compare the margins on incremental adds at SEA vs less profitable and lower frequency adds at SFO. They’ll figure out their equilibrium over time, but for now they may have overestimated a few markets.
AirFiero wrote:
phluser wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
This was speculated last week and now confirmed. DEN is a Top 10 domestic destination...if AS couldn't make this work, then it makes me question their overall plan for SFO. Perhaps moving more capacity to SJC at some point?


I think the deletion of SFO-DEN and MSP with the thought then that AS will be ending it's hub in SFO is an overreaction. It could be just needing the planes to start service at PAE, and choosing competitive and underperforming routes that haven't really matured in their network. They were newer routes added by in 2016 or later. At some point, I wouldn't be surprised if AS resumed SFO-DEN/MSP. DAL-DCA/LGA is less strategically fitted in it's network, and AS might be trying to sell these in perimeter slots, in which B6 should be interested.


I wasn’t implying the dismantling of the SFO hub. At the time of the AS/VX merger, some people predicted a build up at SFO and the possibility that the SJC focus city status would suffer due to the SFO hub, that they wouldn’t continue building up SJC especially with the proximity to SFO. This doesn’t seem to be the trend. SJC continues to grow, and SFO has been losing flights. True, we can’t come to any final conclusions, but we *might* be seeing a trend. Doesn’t that seem possible?


I predicted they would build SFO because 1) SFO is less competitive than LAX, 2) the fares are higher, 3) AS is 2nd largest carrier rather than 4th or 5th like in LAX, and 4) DAL is more problematic than any of their other hubs.

I really don't get backing off in SFO, particularly since they haven't even gotten the merger complete yet, so it is too soon o be backing off. I understand it may be shaky now, but tere is no growth path in LAX and its a low-yield turf war. If they are going to build up SJC then buying VX was pointless. I have to hope this is just part of the plan for waiting till more gates are available in SFO coupled with their pilot shortage, but I still question taking SFO apart to any extent so early in the merger.

FRANKLY, there is no way DAL is doing better than SFO. They just know they can't hold the gates at DAL if they shrink further. They should just sell DAL to DAL (Delta), getting out of the losses, getting some cash, and freeing up planes and pilots for other things.
 
rajincajun01
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:17 am

phluser wrote:
It could be just needing the planes to start service at PAE, and choosing competitive and underperforming routes that haven't really matured in their network.


AS has already announced it will be using E175s at PAE. Not Airbus or Boeing until the routes mature.
A319 A320 A321 A332 B1900 B717 B727 B737 B757 B767 B777 B787 CR2 CR7 CRJ9 E120 ERJ135 ERJ145 L1011 MD80 SF340 AvGeek Superstore
 
wedgetail737
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:37 am

rajincajun01 wrote:
phluser wrote:
It could be just needing the planes to start service at PAE, and choosing competitive and underperforming routes that haven't really matured in their network.


AS has already announced it will be using E175s at PAE. Not Airbus or Boeing until the routes mature.


Yes...that is what AS announced, but I think that could change once they open the flights to the traveling public. It wouldn't surprise me if some were changed to 737 equipment before the flights actually start.
 
JRL3289
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Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:57 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:57 am

enilria wrote:
FRANKLY, there is no way DAL is doing better than SFO. They just know they can't hold the gates at DAL if they shrink further. They should just sell DAL to DAL (Delta), getting out of the losses, getting some cash, and freeing up planes and pilots for other things.


Agreed. I really don't see the strategic benefit considering DAL down to just DL, WN and AS/VX now. If everyone else can serve the Metroplex via DFW, it seems a bit crazy to hold onto a landlocked and reportedly loss-making operation at DAL.
 
G500Captain
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:00 am

[quote="enilria"]

Thanks a bunch enilria, I’ve been reading these pretty much since you started, but just recently joined. This type of stuff is up my alley.
Every time I get on an airliner, I’m reminded why I have a job.
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:21 am

enilria wrote:

I predicted they would build SFO because 1) SFO is less competitive than LAX, 2) the fares are higher, 3) AS is 2nd largest carrier rather than 4th or 5th like in LAX, and 4) DAL is more problematic than any of their other hubs.

I really don't get backing off in SFO, particularly since they haven't even gotten the merger complete yet, so it is too soon o be backing off. I understand it may be shaky now, but tere is no growth path in LAX and its a low-yield turf war. If they are going to build up SJC then buying VX was pointless. I have to hope this is just part of the plan for waiting till more gates are available in SFO coupled with their pilot shortage, but I still question taking SFO apart to any extent so early in the merger.

FRANKLY, there is no way DAL is doing better than SFO. They just know they can't hold the gates at DAL if they shrink further. They should just sell DAL to DAL (Delta), getting out of the losses, getting some cash, and freeing up planes and pilots for other things.


I don’t think any of us doubted that AS would build some kid of a hub at SFO, building on what VX had. I’m as mystified as anyone. Pleased, for my home airport SJCs sake, as they have kept building it as a focus city despite all predictions and assumptions that SJC would not get much more from AS.
 
ucdtim17
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:56 am

AirFiero wrote:
phluser wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
This was speculated last week and now confirmed. DEN is a Top 10 domestic destination...if AS couldn't make this work, then it makes me question their overall plan for SFO. Perhaps moving more capacity to SJC at some point?


I think the deletion of SFO-DEN and MSP with the thought then that AS will be ending it's hub in SFO is an overreaction. It could be just needing the planes to start service at PAE, and choosing competitive and underperforming routes that haven't really matured in their network. They were newer routes added by in 2016 or later. At some point, I wouldn't be surprised if AS resumed SFO-DEN/MSP. DAL-DCA/LGA is less strategically fitted in it's network, and AS might be trying to sell these in perimeter slots, in which B6 should be interested.


I wasn’t implying the dismantling of the SFO hub. At the time of the AS/VX merger, some people predicted a build up at SFO and the possibility that the SJC focus city status would suffer due to the SFO hub, that they wouldn’t continue building up SJC especially with the proximity to SFO. This doesn’t seem to be the trend. SJC continues to grow, and SFO has been losing flights. True, we can’t come to any final conclusions, but we *might* be seeing a trend. Doesn’t that seem possible?


SFO has been losing flights recently but I believe they’re still up on SJC since the merger. There was a lot of growth and now they’re dialing back in places, but they’re still significantly up from where they were two years ago at SFO.
 
crownvic
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:59 am

Chuska wrote:
I read a recent trip report where someone flew AA SFO-PHL on the 332. When did that start, and is this swapping the aircraft from SFO to LAX?

The SFO-LAX A330 will stay as well. Looks like that started back last October. TWA did both of these transcons with L-1011's in the 70's, nice to see AA bringing back the widebodies although they probably have no idea that TWA did it over 40 years ago.


And so did United. Man, how times have changed :(
 
n7371f
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Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:05 am

AS makes a killing on SEA-PDX. Try booking day of...some days impossible. I-5 traffic is so god awful that a lot of people now just fly.

FA9295 wrote:
RJNUT wrote:
with all the scheduling issues for QX due to pilot shortage, do they REALLY need to maintain such frequency PDX-SEA at the expense of so much of their network cuts and substitutions elsewhere?

They're probably hoping to connect PDX passengers to SEA with some other markets, now including STL, apparently...
 
n7371f
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:07 am

A real head scratcher. AS supposedly wants to be the airline of California. Dropping DEN an ominous sign, based on the importance of the market.

It's too early to overreact. But this won't quell the naysayers that AS Mgt is vastly underperforming.

enilria wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
phluser wrote:

I think the deletion of SFO-DEN and MSP with the thought then that AS will be ending it's hub in SFO is an overreaction. It could be just needing the planes to start service at PAE, and choosing competitive and underperforming routes that haven't really matured in their network. They were newer routes added by in 2016 or later. At some point, I wouldn't be surprised if AS resumed SFO-DEN/MSP. DAL-DCA/LGA is less strategically fitted in it's network, and AS might be trying to sell these in perimeter slots, in which B6 should be interested.


It is still problematic for AS, but does not herald the end of the hub. The #1 player in any hub tends to take the most profits and I’m sure it’s hard for the finance team at AS to compare the margins on incremental adds at SEA vs less profitable and lower frequency adds at SFO. They’ll figure out their equilibrium over time, but for now they may have overestimated a few markets.
AirFiero wrote:
phluser wrote:

I think the deletion of SFO-DEN and MSP with the thought then that AS will be ending it's hub in SFO is an overreaction. It could be just needing the planes to start service at PAE, and choosing competitive and underperforming routes that haven't really matured in their network. They were newer routes added by in 2016 or later. At some point, I wouldn't be surprised if AS resumed SFO-DEN/MSP. DAL-DCA/LGA is less strategically fitted in it's network, and AS might be trying to sell these in perimeter slots, in which B6 should be interested.


I wasn’t implying the dismantling of the SFO hub. At the time of the AS/VX merger, some people predicted a build up at SFO and the possibility that the SJC focus city status would suffer due to the SFO hub, that they wouldn’t continue building up SJC especially with the proximity to SFO. This doesn’t seem to be the trend. SJC continues to grow, and SFO has been losing flights. True, we can’t come to any final conclusions, but we *might* be seeing a trend. Doesn’t that seem possible?


I predicted they would build SFO because 1) SFO is less competitive than LAX, 2) the fares are higher, 3) AS is 2nd largest carrier rather than 4th or 5th like in LAX, and 4) DAL is more problematic than any of their other hubs.

I really don't get backing off in SFO, particularly since they haven't even gotten the merger complete yet, so it is too soon o be backing off. I understand it may be shaky now, but tere is no growth path in LAX and its a low-yield turf war. If they are going to build up SJC then buying VX was pointless. I have to hope this is just part of the plan for waiting till more gates are available in SFO coupled with their pilot shortage, but I still question taking SFO apart to any extent so early in the merger.

FRANKLY, there is no way DAL is doing better than SFO. They just know they can't hold the gates at DAL if they shrink further. They should just sell DAL to DAL (Delta), getting out of the losses, getting some cash, and freeing up planes and pilots for other things.
 
Swadian
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:29 am

How long will AA be keeping the A332 on PHL-SFO/LAX? They seem to be running them through the summer which is supposedly high season for Europe.
 
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Rookie87
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:52 am

Thank you Enilria!

When did DFW-OAK start? I’m surprised and glad to see it’s at 2x daily now
 
jbpdx
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:07 am

RJNUT wrote:
with all the scheduling issues for QX due to pilot shortage, do they REALLY need to maintain such frequency PDX-SEA at the expense of so much of their network cuts and substitutions elsewhere?


You mean the “shuttle Portland people to help fill Seattle planes express”? Alaska isn’t alone on the route. Delta flies ~7 roundtrips a day. Overdone frequency. Especially since some people seem to think they can weave through I-5 traffic and get between Portland and Seattle in 2.5 hours, why bother to fly?
Major airports with no PDX nonstops: MIA, FLL, TPA, IND, MSY, CLE, CVG, PIT, RDU; +BWI, +PHL, +YYZ
 
wedgetail737
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:12 am

Rookie87 wrote:
Thank you Enilria!

When did DFW-OAK start? I’m surprised and glad to see it’s at 2x daily now


It's been a LONG time since AA served OAK-DFW. I think at one point, AA had up to 5X daily MD-80's (and occasional 727-200) on the route before AA left OAK. It's been even longer since AA flew OAK-ORD...maybe it'll come back.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:06 am

RJNUT wrote:
with all the scheduling issues for QX due to pilot shortage, do they REALLY need to maintain such frequency PDX-SEA at the expense of so much of their network cuts and substitutions elsewhere?


Not exactly sure how many, (three last time I checked) are mainline between PDX & SEA, at least 2-3 more are OO operated E-175's, while the majority scheduled are QX Q-400's, AS has realized that QX can't keep up & the need to infuse the schedule throughout the day with larger AS mainline aircraft & OO branded flights to keep things going, when QX isn't keeping up.
707 717 720 727-1/2 737-1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 747-1/2/3/4 757-2/3 767-2/3/4 777-2/3 DC8 DC9 MD80/2/7/8 D10-1/3/4 M11 L10-1/2/5 A300/310/320
AA AC AQ AS BA BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HG HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN WP YS 8M
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:38 am

ucdtim17 wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
phluser wrote:

I think the deletion of SFO-DEN and MSP with the thought then that AS will be ending it's hub in SFO is an overreaction. It could be just needing the planes to start service at PAE, and choosing competitive and underperforming routes that haven't really matured in their network. They were newer routes added by in 2016 or later. At some point, I wouldn't be surprised if AS resumed SFO-DEN/MSP. DAL-DCA/LGA is less strategically fitted in it's network, and AS might be trying to sell these in perimeter slots, in which B6 should be interested.


I wasn’t implying the dismantling of the SFO hub. At the time of the AS/VX merger, some people predicted a build up at SFO and the possibility that the SJC focus city status would suffer due to the SFO hub, that they wouldn’t continue building up SJC especially with the proximity to SFO. This doesn’t seem to be the trend. SJC continues to grow, and SFO has been losing flights. True, we can’t come to any final conclusions, but we *might* be seeing a trend. Doesn’t that seem possible?


SFO has been losing flights recently but I believe they’re still up on SJC since the merger. There was a lot of growth and now they’re dialing back in places, but they’re still significantly up from where they were two years ago at SFO.


SANfan recently posted the totals since the merger for SFO versus SJC. With this drop, the difference is down to +3 or 4 for SFO, I believe. Not a big spread.
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:46 am

Here it is from SANfan from the previous OAG thread:

SFO in '17 & '18: +MCO, SNA, MSP, MEX, PHL, BNA, ABQ, MCI, MSY, IND, BWI, RDU, KOA (+13) & - CUN, MEX, MCO, MSP, FLL (-5) NET +8
SJC IN '17 & '18: +EWR, BUR, AUS, TUS, LAX, DAL (+6) & -SLC (-1) NET +5

With the SFO-DEN now a -1, it’s down to +4 SFO
 
dc10lover
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:03 am

AA JFK-SEA JUN 3>1.8

I think JetBlue Airways is increasing on this route.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
phxsanslcpdx
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:59 am

enilria wrote:
FRANKLY, there is no way DAL is doing better than SFO. They just know they can't hold the gates at DAL if they shrink further. They should just sell DAL to DAL (Delta), getting out of the losses, getting some cash, and freeing up planes and pilots for other things.


Those DAL gates still belong to AA, don't they? I'd assume that the sublease contract bars AS from selling them. And I believe the consent decree from the AA-US merger is still in effect until November 2018... meaning that DOJ gets to decide who can use those slots if AS walks away... so I don't think AS has any way of getting any cash out of abandoning DAL. I wonder if AA has managed to sweeten the lease terms enough to keep AS there until November, fully expecting to take the slots themselves at that point.

Where AS COULD cash out is by selling the LGA and DCA slots. But my take is that AS still hopes to make better use of those slots in the future, and they worry (probably rightly) that they won't be able to get those slots back if they sell them now. So they'll give it a few more months to see if they can get any traction in DAL, and then if it's still not working, maybe they'll be ready to unveil new plans for a new within-perimeter focus city. Or they can always just pull out of DAL and send planes from LGA and DCA down to Florida.
 
wagz
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:12 pm

Was AA PHL-JFK really meant to be 6x daily? The route was announced recently but it hasn’t actually even started operating yet! I’m thinking it was either a mis file or some move to hold slots.

I’m seem to remember when they route was announced it was for 1 daily so I’m not sure where the 6 ever came from. As I said not one plane has taken off for JFK yet.
I think Big Foot is blurry... It's not the photographer's fault. There's a large out of focus monster roaming the countryside.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:31 pm

phxsanslcpdx wrote:
enilria wrote:
FRANKLY, there is no way DAL is doing better than SFO. They just know they can't hold the gates at DAL if they shrink further. They should just sell DAL to DAL (Delta), getting out of the losses, getting some cash, and freeing up planes and pilots for other things.


Those DAL gates still belong to AA, don't they? I'd assume that the sublease contract bars AS from selling them. And I believe the consent decree from the AA-US merger is still in effect until November 2018... meaning that DOJ gets to decide who can use those slots if AS walks away... so I don't think AS has any way of getting any cash out of abandoning DAL. I wonder if AA has managed to sweeten the lease terms enough to keep AS there until November, fully expecting to take the slots themselves at that point.

Where AS COULD cash out is by selling the LGA and DCA slots. But my take is that AS still hopes to make better use of those slots in the future, and they worry (probably rightly) that they won't be able to get those slots back if they sell them now. So they'll give it a few more months to see if they can get any traction in DAL, and then if it's still not working, maybe they'll be ready to unveil new plans for a new within-perimeter focus city. Or they can always just pull out of DAL and send planes from LGA and DCA down to Florida.

Where are they going to fly to from lga and dca that don’t already have plenty of competition from legacies, wn, b6 and spirit? Have you seen the yield from lga and dca to fll? If they really want to get into that market, they can always get in on ewr fll. They don’t need slots for that. These slots really have no practical use to them. If they are going to try to build a new within perimeter focus city, why don’t they just take that money and keep building up sfo and lax where they have already spent 2.6 billion on?
 
airtran737
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:28 pm

DFW-GRR goes from 3 down to 2 flights a day. The evening Dallas flight is usually packed. I wonder what the reason for cutting it is?
Nice Trip Report!!! Great Pics, thanks for posting!!!! B747Forever
 
jetstream3399
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:41 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
Thanks as always, enilria!

enilria wrote:
J1 ALB-PIT APR 1.4>0.7 MAY 1.5>0.7 JUN 1.4>0.7
J1 CVG-PIT APR 1.4>0 MAY 1.5>0 JUN 1.4>0
J1 MKE-PIT APR 1.4>0.7 MAY 1.5>0.7 JUN 1.4>0.7
J1 PIT-PVD APR 1.4>0.7 MAY 1.5>0.7 JUN 1.4>0.7
J1 PIT-RIC APR 1.4>0 MAY 1.5>0 JUN 1.4>0


Apparent results of acute pilot availability issues.

What their schedule recently had for BE40 flying:
3 lines of PIT flying (2x ALB/MKE, BDL/SDF, IND/PVD)
1 line of MKE flying (2x CMH/OMA)
4th line of PIT flying returning March 7 (2x CVG/RIC)

In the past several weeks they posted pretty awful completion results trying to run four total lines of flying, especially routes out of PIT.


What the new schedule has for BE40 fling
2 lines of PIT flying (2x BDL, IND, SDF, 1x ALB, MKE)
1 line of MKE flying (2x CMH/OMA)

The E135 flying BUF-ALB has been running without issue and the PIT-MCI E135 coming later in March has not been delayed either.

No word on the start of the PIT-MEM-MCI route originally announced for late March, but when OneJet announces a date for something months out they often miss it. I do wonder if Countour (the airline operating flights for OneJet) winning the CEC-OAK route with E135 may put a crimp in plans to use an E135 for OneJet on PIT-MEM-MCI. But that's just my own speculation.


The big boys asked MEM to delay the closure of B/consolidation to A and C till after Spring Break season. That may have something to do with it. Noticed AA upping DFW, PHX, ORD and PHL while cutting a frequency to CLT from MEM. Wonder what the advance sales of F9's MEM/PHL flights are like. MEM O&D continues to climb posting a 6% gain in Jan 2018 over Jan 2017.


Knope, your assumption that crew availability has impacted OneJet's schedule of late is totally incorrect. The OneJet PIT operation is fully staffed. The cancellations have been driven by two factors, the first being that two of the BE40's are now due for engine overhauls that are not going to be performed due to the operation transitioning to the ERJ and the second being scheduled heavy checks on the remaining BE40's. Many of the cancels, though not all, have been planned well in advance and had availability zeroed out so as not to impact passengers.

While all of the aircraft are operated by Contour, the ERJ's used for Contour's MCN and CEC flying are totally separate from the aircraft managed for OneJet. Though I suppose in a pinch the aircraft from one operation could be used to back up the other, the aircraft are not shared resources and so CEC has no impact on PIT-MEM-MCI. There are no concrete plans for the CJ4 introduction, those too seem to have been abandoned in favor of the ERJ platform.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:11 pm

Via is adding AUS/BKG again for summer 2018. I don't know how much good will they have considering previous cancellations.
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:28 pm

AirFiero wrote:
Here it is from SANfan from the previous OAG thread:

SFO in '17 & '18: +MCO, SNA, MSP, MEX, PHL, BNA, ABQ, MCI, MSY, IND, BWI, RDU, KOA (+13) & - CUN, MEX, MCO, MSP, FLL (-5) NET +8
SJC IN '17 & '18: +EWR, BUR, AUS, TUS, LAX, DAL (+6) & -SLC (-1) NET +5

With the SFO-DEN now a -1, it’s down to +4 SFO


Is that just a list of cities or frequencies? The best measure would be ASMs on VX + AS right before the merger announcement vs current (including recent subtractions) as a measure of build-up. I really think for AS these moves are all about shoring up their margins which seems to be overruling the desire to build SFO more quickly.
 
evank516
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:44 pm

Interesting, AA is cutting a frequency on CLT-MLB during the summer but adding one on CLT-DAB.
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:13 pm

SFOtoORD wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
Here it is from SANfan from the previous OAG thread:

SFO in '17 & '18: +MCO, SNA, MSP, MEX, PHL, BNA, ABQ, MCI, MSY, IND, BWI, RDU, KOA (+13) & - CUN, MEX, MCO, MSP, FLL (-5) NET +8
SJC IN '17 & '18: +EWR, BUR, AUS, TUS, LAX, DAL (+6) & -SLC (-1) NET +5

With the SFO-DEN now a -1, it’s down to +4 SFO


Is that just a list of cities or frequencies? The best measure would be ASMs on VX + AS right before the merger announcement vs current (including recent subtractions) as a measure of build-up. I really think for AS these moves are all about shoring up their margins which seems to be overruling the desire to build SFO more quickly.


Cities. But good question. I don’t know where some of you folks get your data, but I assume it’s an easier source than anything I have. Maybe a list of total flights added would be a good stat to look at?
 
ahj2000
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:14 pm

evank516 wrote:
Interesting, AA is cutting a frequency on CLT-MLB during the summer but adding one on CLT-DAB.

I typically don’t put too much into what these threads say about CLT’s east coast ops. It seems that AA changes them often, and these numbers are just the airlines current rough estimate of what they will serve.
-Andrés Juánez
 
phluser
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:16 pm

enilria wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
phluser wrote:

I think the deletion of SFO-DEN and MSP with the thought then that AS will be ending it's hub in SFO is an overreaction. It could be just needing the planes to start service at PAE, and choosing competitive and underperforming routes that haven't really matured in their network. They were newer routes added by in 2016 or later. At some point, I wouldn't be surprised if AS resumed SFO-DEN/MSP. DAL-DCA/LGA is less strategically fitted in it's network, and AS might be trying to sell these in perimeter slots, in which B6 should be interested.


It is still problematic for AS, but does not herald the end of the hub. The #1 player in any hub tends to take the most profits and I’m sure it’s hard for the finance team at AS to compare the margins on incremental adds at SEA vs less profitable and lower frequency adds at SFO. They’ll figure out their equilibrium over time, but for now they may have overestimated a few markets.
AirFiero wrote:
phluser wrote:

I think the deletion of SFO-DEN and MSP with the thought then that AS will be ending it's hub in SFO is an overreaction. It could be just needing the planes to start service at PAE, and choosing competitive and underperforming routes that haven't really matured in their network. They were newer routes added by in 2016 or later. At some point, I wouldn't be surprised if AS resumed SFO-DEN/MSP. DAL-DCA/LGA is less strategically fitted in it's network, and AS might be trying to sell these in perimeter slots, in which B6 should be interested.


I wasn’t implying the dismantling of the SFO hub. At the time of the AS/VX merger, some people predicted a build up at SFO and the possibility that the SJC focus city status would suffer due to the SFO hub, that they wouldn’t continue building up SJC especially with the proximity to SFO. This doesn’t seem to be the trend. SJC continues to grow, and SFO has been losing flights. True, we can’t come to any final conclusions, but we *might* be seeing a trend. Doesn’t that seem possible?


I predicted they would build SFO because 1) SFO is less competitive than LAX, 2) the fares are higher, 3) AS is 2nd largest carrier rather than 4th or 5th like in LAX, and 4) DAL is more problematic than any of their other hubs.

I really don't get backing off in SFO, particularly since they haven't even gotten the merger complete yet, so it is too soon o be backing off. I understand it may be shaky now, but tere is no growth path in LAX and its a low-yield turf war. If they are going to build up SJC then buying VX was pointless. I have to hope this is just part of the plan for waiting till more gates are available in SFO coupled with their pilot shortage, but I still question taking SFO apart to any extent so early in the merger.

FRANKLY, there is no way DAL is doing better than SFO. They just know they can't hold the gates at DAL if they shrink further. They should just sell DAL to DAL (Delta), getting out of the losses, getting some cash, and freeing up planes and pilots for other things.


It might have little choice and have to back out of some routes in SFO, even though it's larger in SFO than LAX. It's likely going to have to balance SFO with SJC, and SAN and LAX for it's California strategy. Covering SFO-DEN might have been worse than one of the LAX routes it has at the moment. I was just looking at Southwest fares this week for SFO-DEN and walk up fares on the route are under $150. Is this typical of the route, and could it be WN is keeping low fares because of F9, which is screwing it up for AS that the fares are just too low?

Even though it's a longer distance and not intra-West, B6 also overflies and doesn't cover FLL-DEN with FLL-SLC instead (a smaller market) likely because DEN is too competitive. Even AA has underwhelming service on PHL-DEN at 1x daily, through part of the year. DEN is important but it might be tougher than expected. Technically VX introduced this SFO-DEN route, and AS that inherited it, but in the case of SFO-MSP, which is also cut, it was introduced by AS management; it's add then cut was more an overestimation. It really wasn't long ago that even UA wasn't covering SFO-MSP.
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:22 pm

usairways85 wrote:
Chuska wrote:
Oops, meant to say the SFO-PHL AA A330 will stay as well. This is in response to Phatfarmlines question, #25.

Yes, the 332 on PHL-SFO was extended again until at least late July. So PHL-LAX/SFO will both have a 332 rotation through much of the summer.

No surprise on JFK-PHL. I thought they might actually up the remaining flight to a 763 more for rotation purposes.


There are 3x daily 763s each direction on MIA-PHL for rotation purposes, and 2x daily 763s on MIA-JFK.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:22 pm

phluser wrote:
enilria wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

It is still problematic for AS, but does not herald the end of the hub. The #1 player in any hub tends to take the most profits and I’m sure it’s hard for the finance team at AS to compare the margins on incremental adds at SEA vs less profitable and lower frequency adds at SFO. They’ll figure out their equilibrium over time, but for now they may have overestimated a few markets.
AirFiero wrote:

I wasn’t implying the dismantling of the SFO hub. At the time of the AS/VX merger, some people predicted a build up at SFO and the possibility that the SJC focus city status would suffer due to the SFO hub, that they wouldn’t continue building up SJC especially with the proximity to SFO. This doesn’t seem to be the trend. SJC continues to grow, and SFO has been losing flights. True, we can’t come to any final conclusions, but we *might* be seeing a trend. Doesn’t that seem possible?


I predicted they would build SFO because 1) SFO is less competitive than LAX, 2) the fares are higher, 3) AS is 2nd largest carrier rather than 4th or 5th like in LAX, and 4) DAL is more problematic than any of their other hubs.

I really don't get backing off in SFO, particularly since they haven't even gotten the merger complete yet, so it is too soon o be backing off. I understand it may be shaky now, but tere is no growth path in LAX and its a low-yield turf war. If they are going to build up SJC then buying VX was pointless. I have to hope this is just part of the plan for waiting till more gates are available in SFO coupled with their pilot shortage, but I still question taking SFO apart to any extent so early in the merger.

FRANKLY, there is no way DAL is doing better than SFO. They just know they can't hold the gates at DAL if they shrink further. They should just sell DAL to DAL (Delta), getting out of the losses, getting some cash, and freeing up planes and pilots for other things.


It might have little choice and have to back out of some routes in SFO, even though it's larger in SFO than LAX. It's likely going to have to balance SFO with SJC, and SAN and LAX for it's California strategy. Covering SFO-DEN might have been worse than one of the LAX routes it has at the moment. I was just looking at Southwest fares this week for SFO-DEN and walk up fares on the route are under $150. Is this typical of the route, and could it be WN is keeping low fares because of F9, which is screwing it up for AS that the fares are just too low?

Even though it's a longer distance and not intra-West, B6 also overflies and doesn't cover FLL-DEN with FLL-SLC instead (a smaller market) likely because DEN is too competitive. Even AA has underwhelming service on PHL-DEN at 1x daily, through part of the year. DEN is important but it might be tougher than expected. Technically VX introduced this SFO-DEN route, and AS that inherited it, but in the case of SFO-MSP, which is also cut, it was introduced by AS management; it's add then cut was more an overestimation. It really wasn't long ago that even UA wasn't covering SFO-MSP.


Does WN fly SFO-DEN? Does F9? I’m pretty sure WN is flying SJC-DEN.
 
N292UX
Posts: 429
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 7:08 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:03 pm

Maverick623 wrote:
RJNUT wrote:
MIA-LPB on AA must be now making a stop at VVI both directions . It used to be just the northbound due to elevation out of LPB. J1 might as well just call it a day. Must be GROSSLY mismanaged. DTW-TVC on DL appears to be a reversal correction from last weeks load.


LPB is being cut entirely.

Am I correct in the fact that VVI is soldiering on?
 
ckfred
Posts: 5148
Joined: Wed Apr 25, 2001 12:50 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:24 pm

I can understand AA cutting back ORD to FLL and RSW in the summer. But, I don't understand that reduced frequencies in November. That's when the snowbirds start heading to Florida for the winter, but do need to travel back north for short times during the winter. My family spent a couple of Thanksgivings in Orlando, when our son was younger. I know other families who will fly to various destinations in Florida over the holidays, as well as weekends from November to March.

Dropping ORD-PSP really makes no sense. Just like Florida, I know snowbirds (in this case, wealthy snowbirds), who spend the winter in Palm Springs, and then fly back for various events. The only thing I can think of is that Palm Springs is no longer a popular vacation destination for non-retirees, when compared to Florida, Arizona, or San Diego.
 
RJNUT
Posts: 1794
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 1999 1:58 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:28 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
Via is adding AUS/BKG again for summer 2018. I don't know how much good will they have considering previous cancellations.


they must be relying on short memories, i guess, which isnt all that unfounded!
 
evank516
Posts: 1963
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:33 pm

ahj2000 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
Interesting, AA is cutting a frequency on CLT-MLB during the summer but adding one on CLT-DAB.

I typically don’t put too much into what these threads say about CLT’s east coast ops. It seems that AA changes them often, and these numbers are just the airlines current rough estimate of what they will serve.


Even so, two similar markets are seeing opposite adjustments. That's what stuck out at me.
 
rajincajun01
Posts: 701
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2010 2:16 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:35 pm

AirFiero wrote:
phluser wrote:
enilria wrote:

I predicted they would build SFO because 1) SFO is less competitive than LAX, 2) the fares are higher, 3) AS is 2nd largest carrier rather than 4th or 5th like in LAX, and 4) DAL is more problematic than any of their other hubs.

I really don't get backing off in SFO, particularly since they haven't even gotten the merger complete yet, so it is too soon o be backing off. I understand it may be shaky now, but tere is no growth path in LAX and its a low-yield turf war. If they are going to build up SJC then buying VX was pointless. I have to hope this is just part of the plan for waiting till more gates are available in SFO coupled with their pilot shortage, but I still question taking SFO apart to any extent so early in the merger.

FRANKLY, there is no way DAL is doing better than SFO. They just know they can't hold the gates at DAL if they shrink further. They should just sell DAL to DAL (Delta), getting out of the losses, getting some cash, and freeing up planes and pilots for other things.


It might have little choice and have to back out of some routes in SFO, even though it's larger in SFO than LAX. It's likely going to have to balance SFO with SJC, and SAN and LAX for it's California strategy. Covering SFO-DEN might have been worse than one of the LAX routes it has at the moment. I was just looking at Southwest fares this week for SFO-DEN and walk up fares on the route are under $150. Is this typical of the route, and could it be WN is keeping low fares because of F9, which is screwing it up for AS that the fares are just too low?

Even though it's a longer distance and not intra-West, B6 also overflies and doesn't cover FLL-DEN with FLL-SLC instead (a smaller market) likely because DEN is too competitive. Even AA has underwhelming service on PHL-DEN at 1x daily, through part of the year. DEN is important but it might be tougher than expected. Technically VX introduced this SFO-DEN route, and AS that inherited it, but in the case of SFO-MSP, which is also cut, it was introduced by AS management; it's add then cut was more an overestimation. It really wasn't long ago that even UA wasn't covering SFO-MSP.


Does WN fly SFO-DEN? Does F9? I’m pretty sure WN is flying SJC-DEN.


Yes. Yes. And yes. UA also does 777 and 787 reposition flights on the route.
A319 A320 A321 A332 B1900 B717 B727 B737 B757 B767 B777 B787 CR2 CR7 CRJ9 E120 ERJ135 ERJ145 L1011 MD80 SF340 AvGeek Superstore
 
ucdtim17
Posts: 564
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:38 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:46 pm

AirFiero wrote:
phluser wrote:
enilria wrote:

I predicted they would build SFO because 1) SFO is less competitive than LAX, 2) the fares are higher, 3) AS is 2nd largest carrier rather than 4th or 5th like in LAX, and 4) DAL is more problematic than any of their other hubs.

I really don't get backing off in SFO, particularly since they haven't even gotten the merger complete yet, so it is too soon o be backing off. I understand it may be shaky now, but tere is no growth path in LAX and its a low-yield turf war. If they are going to build up SJC then buying VX was pointless. I have to hope this is just part of the plan for waiting till more gates are available in SFO coupled with their pilot shortage, but I still question taking SFO apart to any extent so early in the merger.

FRANKLY, there is no way DAL is doing better than SFO. They just know they can't hold the gates at DAL if they shrink further. They should just sell DAL to DAL (Delta), getting out of the losses, getting some cash, and freeing up planes and pilots for other things.


It might have little choice and have to back out of some routes in SFO, even though it's larger in SFO than LAX. It's likely going to have to balance SFO with SJC, and SAN and LAX for it's California strategy. Covering SFO-DEN might have been worse than one of the LAX routes it has at the moment. I was just looking at Southwest fares this week for SFO-DEN and walk up fares on the route are under $150. Is this typical of the route, and could it be WN is keeping low fares because of F9, which is screwing it up for AS that the fares are just too low?

Even though it's a longer distance and not intra-West, B6 also overflies and doesn't cover FLL-DEN with FLL-SLC instead (a smaller market) likely because DEN is too competitive. Even AA has underwhelming service on PHL-DEN at 1x daily, through part of the year. DEN is important but it might be tougher than expected. Technically VX introduced this SFO-DEN route, and AS that inherited it, but in the case of SFO-MSP, which is also cut, it was introduced by AS management; it's add then cut was more an overestimation. It really wasn't long ago that even UA wasn't covering SFO-MSP.


Does WN fly SFO-DEN? Does F9? I’m pretty sure WN is flying SJC-DEN.


WN flies SFO-DEN and OAK-DEN 5x daily, SJC-DEN 4x.
 
evank516
Posts: 1963
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:29 pm

*AA CLT-EYW JUN 3>1.2 JUL 3>1.0 AUG 3>1.0 SEP 3>1.0 OCT 3>1.0 NOV 3>1.0


Little curious as to why you found this one interesting? EYW typically sees a dip in demand during these months.
 
chicawgo
Posts: 392
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2011 5:09 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:37 pm

ckfred wrote:
I can understand AA cutting back ORD to FLL and RSW in the summer. But, I don't understand that reduced frequencies in November. That's when the snowbirds start heading to Florida for the winter, but do need to travel back north for short times during the winter. My family spent a couple of Thanksgivings in Orlando, when our son was younger. I know other families who will fly to various destinations in Florida over the holidays, as well as weekends from November to March.

Dropping ORD-PSP really makes no sense. Just like Florida, I know snowbirds (in this case, wealthy snowbirds), who spend the winter in Palm Springs, and then fly back for various events. The only thing I can think of is that Palm Springs is no longer a popular vacation destination for non-retirees, when compared to Florida, Arizona, or San Diego.


Yeah something seems wrong there. Only thing I can think of is that UA has significantly increased frequency to SE Florida in the last year. AA generally owned it. I just booked a flight this winter for my folks to PBI and AA has best/most options.
 
evank516
Posts: 1963
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/4/2018:AA LPBMIA, ORDPSP Out, VVIMIA In; AM ATLMTY Out; AS PDXSTL, SFODEN Out; DL LGACHA, SLCCLE In

Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:39 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
graham697 wrote:
AA's EYW cuts are pretty painful especially DCA-EYW. I hope this isn't a permanent realignment because the region has been bouncing back after the storm. Looks like I am moving over to Delta in the meantime.


Any chance this has to do with EYW’s runway expansion?


CLT/DCA-EYW see some cuts for the summer and fall months. These are most likely seasonal as they normally are and will return come mid to late December. Last summer CLT-EYW was down to 1x daily and DCA was Saturday only. Mind you CLT-EYW used to be completely seasonal back when US flew it (as was DCA). They didn't operate into EYW at all during the summer and fall.

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