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hOMSaR
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:54 pm

neomax wrote:
With the recent upswing of Sun Country, is a Westjet style expansion in its future? SY is very small at the moment, but it definitely looks they want to change that. Past domestic growth, is long haul with SY a possibility in the future, and if so, can they become the Northwest?


I think Delta might have something to say about that.

(p.s. Sorry if this post shows up above the original, it's some stupid A.net server issue thing)
I was raised by a cup of coffee.
 
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neomax
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Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:55 pm

With the recent upswing of Sun Country, is a Westjet style expansion in its future? SY is very small at the moment, but it definitely looks they want to change that. Past domestic growth, is long haul with SY a possibility in the future, and if so, can they become the Northwest?
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:15 am

The only thing they will have in common with NW is a hub in MSP. They're a one type airline that is trying to be a ULCC. They resemble WN more than NW, and even that is a bit of a stretch.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:18 am

neomax wrote:
With the recent upswing of Sun Country, is a Westjet style expansion in its future? SY is very small at the moment, but it definitely looks they want to change that. Past domestic growth, is long haul with SY a possibility in the future, and if so, can they become the Northwest?


I've resisted the temptation to give a glib answer (which ends with "no"), and I'll add that I am a long time customer and fan of SY.
There will be no long-haul beyond whatever range B737 can provide.

My question to you is - what "recent upswing" are you speaking of, exactly?
 
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NWAROOSTER
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:36 am

Sun Country is a small airline that cannot even be compared with Southwest other than that they both fly only 737s. Sun Country is totally at the mercy the three mainline airlines and creditors. If Sun Country gets too aggressive they will be put down just like Northwest did with Vanguard Airlines. Sun Country will be under cut on air fares. :old:
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
jubguy3
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:49 am

Did you mean to say westjet, not northwest? That's all I can infer from your parent post.
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:53 am

They "could" become what Southwest used to be, but never NW.
Next up: STL DEN PSP DEN STL
 
Enzed
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:06 am

FlyHappy wrote:
neomax wrote:
With the recent upswing of Sun Country, is a Westjet style expansion in its future? SY is very small at the moment, but it definitely looks they want to change that. Past domestic growth, is long haul with SY a possibility in the future, and if so, can they become the Northwest?


I've resisted the temptation to give a glib answer (which ends with "no"), and I'll add that I am a long time customer and fan of SY.
There will be no long-haul beyond whatever range B737 can provide.

My question to you is - what "recent upswing" are you speaking of, exactly?

Why couldn't sun country have 2 sircraft types ? Short haul & long haul?

There seems yo be many a330/340s & boeing wide bodies parjed everywhere so leasing rates mu SD t be low.
 
SeaDoo
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:36 am

By NW, do you mean become part of Delta? :)
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:05 am

Enzed wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
neomax wrote:
With the recent upswing of Sun Country, is a Westjet style expansion in its future? SY is very small at the moment, but it definitely looks they want to change that. Past domestic growth, is long haul with SY a possibility in the future, and if so, can they become the Northwest?


I've resisted the temptation to give a glib answer (which ends with "no"), and I'll add that I am a long time customer and fan of SY.
There will be no long-haul beyond whatever range B737 can provide.

My question to you is - what "recent upswing" are you speaking of, exactly?

Why couldn't sun country have 2 sircraft types ? Short haul & long haul?

There seems yo be many a330/340s & boeing wide bodies parjed everywhere so leasing rates mu SD t be low.


There's no absolute reason they cannot have multiple types, sure. I've personally flown their DC-10, and I think a B727 in the hazy past. But.... that was a very different era.
They are owned by a New York investment firm. Before that, a wealthy family. Before that, a now jailed shady entrepreneur/con man. Point is, none of this ownership is (or was) going to overreach a tiny operation by increasing their costs (far from just lease rates) w/multiple types (not just equipment, but training, pilot pay and other human factors). They've just turned SY into an LCC - how many other US LCC's can you name that operate widebodies? Wet-leasing is certainly no answer, the US market simply isn't setup to allow that to be profitable anymore, certainly not for long haul.

Gates? SY has a handful of narrowbody capable gates at a secondary terminal - T2 only has a few B767/A330 capable gates used by FI and Condor (maybe?). MSP is a pretty busy place.

Where is it you propose SY fly long haul to, anyways? What value proposition do they bring to whatever destination you have in mind?
They tried London along time ago, didn't last (that'd seem like a pretty bad idea now), they are currently doing LAX-HNL in their B737's, which might.

Personally, I think their core strategy of warm weather vacations destinations and a few selected higher yielding city pairs is indefinitely sustainable. Problem is, billionaire families and investment firms expect higher than small returns on their investment money. Really, SY hasn't changed much, but the world around them has changed drastically.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:28 am

NWAROOSTER wrote:
Sun Country is a small airline that cannot even be compared with Southwest other than that they both fly only 737s. Sun Country is totally at the mercy the three mainline airlines and creditors. If Sun Country gets too aggressive they will be put down just like Northwest did with Vanguard Airlines. Sun Country will be under cut on air fares. :old:


Mostly agree but on one point, I do beg to differ - traditionally, it has been SY that has undercut/kept in check the NWA , then DL fares to common destinations. This has been the case for decades, from my point of view.
I think DL is maintaining the price match, on domestic routes, even as SY has dropped into their LCC fare structure. I hope this isn't surprising to SY management. Interestingly, I think the Caribbean/Mexican destinations they show a pricing advantage over DL (in Y, but not J) . I'd guess that DL has so much capacity and fat on those routes from MSP that they just don't care, couldn't be bothered.

In fact, I might be a case study: I've been on 5 or 6 SY flights in the last year (personal and biz), but my next J flight to the beach will be on DL. Only partly because its less expensive (at equal cost, I'd easily choose SY) , mostly because the flight time is far, far better (SY would be a horrendous early am, and with young kids, that's no fun). However, my next Y flight (in 3 weeks) will be on SY (time was right).

So as much as I loathe the move to the LCC model, and lament the presumed de-focus on MSP, perhaps they are accurately divining "how to make more money and not get crushed".
Maybe.
 
ahj2000
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:03 am

THE WestJet comparison will never happen. One of the reasons why WestJet took off like it did was timing. the vacuum in Canadian aviation from the buyout of Canadi>n effectively brought one nationwide carrier, and WestJet came to challenge them. Even then, it took years to develop hubs on both sides of Canada, first in Calgary, then Hamilton, which eventually moved to Toronto. The US is quite a competitive market (no matter what some may say, the big 3, often with AS and/or WN, compete on the majority domestic itineraries, and the ULcC3 skim the bottom of the market). There is no need or space for a new network carrier in the US, therefore it isn’t almost certain that anybody that tries to expand as a network carrier from basically scratch will die.
And that’s not even looking at the changes that they are making right now.
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ADrum23
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:29 am

What is SY's strategy anyway? It seems like they are a small start up with very limited service. Are they trying to grow into a NK or F9?
 
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:18 am

For a 35-year-old company, they always seem to hold there own. No matter who owns them. I don't think they will become the next Frontier, Spirit etc. Yes, they will add flights, yes they will be seasonal. They do a brisk charter work for casinos, DOD, and several travel companies.
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
IPFreely
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:34 am

neomax wrote:
can they become the Northwest?


By the new Northwest, do you mean a bankrupt airline based at MSP? I am not predicting it will happen but I believe it is possible, yes.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:33 am

Quite frankly, other than being based in MSP, the two are not even close.

NW for years has a dominant TPAC network and is the main US carrier to fly to East Asia (mainly using that NRT hub that is dismantled by DL), then on the other side you also have that huge partnership with KL that is still there today.

That and unless they decided to fly their 738 for another 20+ years, they won't even come close to NW's almighty DC-9 fleets :stirthepot:
 
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:25 am

Ironically, I recall their former advertising stressing they were the alternative to Northwest (although their product was just as lousy)!
 
Enzed
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:35 am

Msp region seems to have around 4 million o
People. Surely there's more demand for more nonstop flights to Europe, Asia & South Pacific. They could do seasonal flights & don't need to acquire aircraft or crews, just get another operator yo do it for them.
 
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:49 am

SY newest addition N824SY is on its way to MSP. from AMS, (Ex Air Europa) This will give them 27 aircraft until the 5 winter HV planes leave
SY will add more SY branded aircraft yet this year. Number of aircraft TBA
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
usflyer msp
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:58 am

Enzed wrote:
Msp region seems to have around 4 million o
People. Surely there's more demand for more nonstop flights to Europe, Asia & South Pacific.


Not really (and I live here)...

Europe is maxed out. Asia, I could maybe see a DL flight to ICN. MSP-South Pacific = hahahaha.

There is no need or demand for SY to fly intercontinental routes from MSP. It would be a financial disaster along the lines of when America West tried to fly to Japan (i.e force them into bankruptcy)...
 
Enzed
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:27 am

Seem to be quite a few a340-500s& -600s & now A380s entering the charter & acmi markets & these all have very long ranges. Sun country could ptovide feed into msp
 
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:04 am

sunking737 wrote:
For a 35-year-old company, they always seem to hold there own. No matter who owns them. I don't think they will become the next Frontier, Spirit etc. Yes, they will add flights, yes they will be seasonal. They do a brisk charter work for casinos, DOD, and several travel companies.


Not to mention a significant number of small to mid-size D1 college sports teams.
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:53 am

SY has only announced two new non-MSP routes, and people are throwing around ideas such as SY buying used A340s and A380s and flying intercontinental?

Lets slow down and focus on getting more 737s, adding non-MSP routes where there is a profitable niche, and increasing and expanding a few MSP routes.
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jetblueguy22
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Tue Mar 06, 2018 5:05 am

Enzed wrote:
Seem to be quite a few a340-500s& -600s & now A380s entering the charter & acmi markets & these all have very long ranges. Sun country could ptovide feed into msp

Everybody likes to bring this point up when talking about small airlines expanding internationally, but there is a reason those planes are available so cheap on the second hand market...
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
Enzed
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Tue Mar 06, 2018 5:11 am

jetblueguy22 wrote:
Enzed wrote:
Seem to be quite a few a340-500s& -600s & now A380s entering the charter & acmi markets & these all have very long ranges. Sun country could ptovide feed into msp

Everybody likes to bring this point up when talking about small airlines expanding internationally, but there is a reason those planes are available so cheap on the second hand market...

& the answer is probably that they chew through more fuel than new twins but acquisition/lease costs must be very low so they only need to operate when yoelds are high. Look at allegiant. They bought mad dogs for nothing & didn't work them hard at all & still did very well out of them.
 
jordanh
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:49 am

NWAROOSTER wrote:
Sun Country is a small airline that cannot even be compared with Southwest other than that they both fly only 737s. Sun Country is totally at the mercy the three mainline airlines and creditors. If Sun Country gets too aggressive they will be put down just like Northwest did with Vanguard Airlines. Sun Country will be under cut on air fares. :old:


I think you have your dead airlines confused. Northwest went after ProAir, not Vanguard, when they tried to set up shop in Detroit. American Airlines got nasty with Vanguard, and used (in most impartial observers') predatory practices to kill off it off.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:21 am

ADrum23 wrote:
What is SY's strategy anyway? It seems like they are a small start up with very limited service. Are they trying to grow into a NK or F9?


You think they are a small startup? They started operations in 1983! They are not new our a start up. At one time they had 36 727-200's starting in 1982 & retired in 2001. They also had 13 DC-10-10/15 & 40 series models between 1986 & 2001. Then witched to 737's.

PS they also operate them in the standard layouts with 12F class seats & 31"-33" coach.
 
flydude380
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:14 pm

I’m pretty sure they used to fly to London-Gatwick.
 
bkflyguy
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:42 pm

Has SY locked out its mechanics and forced its pilots to strike yet?
 
lavalampluva
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:22 pm

I think that SY could, with the right aircraft, do some 2x a week flights to Europe. I don't think any would need to be daily. But TBH I'm not sure what SY's business plan is, I don't even think they know.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
toxtethogrady
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:24 pm

neomax wrote:
With the recent upswing of Sun Country, is a Westjet style expansion in its future? SY is very small at the moment, but it definitely looks they want to change that. Past domestic growth, is long haul with SY a possibility in the future, and if so, can they become the Northwest?


It is hard to take any US carrier seriously that does not have a presence in Houston.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:28 pm

flydude380 wrote:
I’m pretty sure they used to fly to London-Gatwick.


They indeed used to for 2 summers (2010 to STN, 2011 to LGW), going MSP-YQX-LON on 738. I believe it was 2 weekly (Fri/Sat?) or something like that.

Before that when they had the DC-10 they flew some charters here and there to Europe also (I don't really know the details).

Of course, if the LON flights were so profitable, they would have still fly it now.

EDIT:
lavalampluva wrote:
I think that SY could, with the right aircraft, do some 2x a week flights to Europe. I don't think any would need to be daily. But TBH I'm not sure what SY's business plan is, I don't even think they know.


Which was exactly what they did earlier :hyper:
 
lavalampluva
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Re: Can Sun Country become the new Northwest?

Tue Mar 06, 2018 6:39 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:

EDIT:
lavalampluva wrote:
I think that SY could, with the right aircraft, do some 2x a week flights to Europe. I don't think any would need to be daily. But TBH I'm not sure what SY's business plan is, I don't even think they know.


Which was exactly what they did earlier :hyper:


Yes and no. They did do it, but it was with a tecnincal stop at YQX. And it was only once a week. From what I understand SY only did it for ETOPS ratings, and figured they would make some money off of it. SY would do much better with having an aircraft which wouldn't need the fuel stop.

SY did try this back in the late 1980s into the early 1990s. But that's so long ago that any kind of trending would not be valid.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.

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