papatango
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Delta/PEK

Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:56 am

UAL turned back 3 China zone 1 freguencies to the DOT if Delta is serious about LAX-PEK THEY should request these 3 frequencies and fly the route 3 times a week
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta/PEK

Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:00 am

I don't believe 3x weekly would be attractive on what Delta must hope to be a business route.
 
sagechan
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Re: Delta/PEK

Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:12 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
I don't believe 3x weekly would be attractive on what Delta must hope to be a business route.


I agree, not sure DL or AA has a real use for 3x week service. Though I suppose either might be interested in maybe going 10x on a route? If CZ were to jump to One World, I think there would be a slim chance AA could try 3x to CAN. What's DL's strongest market to PEK, maybe 10x a week from there?
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jordanh
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Re: Delta/PEK

Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:16 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
I don't believe 3x weekly would be attractive on what Delta must hope to be a business route.

I don't think they would want it for a trans-Pacific flight, but they might be interested in 3x weekly from NRT to PVG still.
 
c933103
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Re: Delta/PEK

Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:29 am

sagechan wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
I don't believe 3x weekly would be attractive on what Delta must hope to be a business route.


I agree, not sure DL or AA has a real use for 3x week service. Though I suppose either might be interested in maybe going 10x on a route? If CZ were to jump to One World, I think there would be a slim chance AA could try 3x to CAN. What's DL's strongest market to PEK, maybe 10x a week from there?

The additional 1x weekly CAN frequency in zone 1 rule is still not used by American carrier iirc?
When no other countries around the world is going to militarily stop China and its subordinate fom abusing its citizens within its national boundary, it is unreasonable to expect those abuse can be countered with purely peaceful means.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Delta/PEK

Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:55 am

sagechan wrote:
I think there would be a slim chance AA could try 3x to CAN.

Less than slim. UA and DL couldn't justify it even with their intra-Asian 1stops.

UA doesn't do it, even with the China-penetrating power of the SFO hub.


sagechan wrote:
What's DL's strongest market to PEK

Capacity-wise, DTW.
Financially, who's to say.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
ATLFlyer323
Posts: 512
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Re: Delta/PEK

Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:58 am

sagechan wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
I don't believe 3x weekly would be attractive on what Delta must hope to be a business route.


I agree, not sure DL or AA has a real use for 3x week service. Though I suppose either might be interested in maybe going 10x on a route? If CZ were to jump to One World, I think there would be a slim chance AA could try 3x to CAN. What's DL's strongest market to PEK, maybe 10x a week from there?



Haha, well depending on which forum you're on DTW is obviously DL's best gateway for everything and needs to be expanded ASAP. ;) That being said I love connecting in DTW and use it to go to NGO a few times a year... and being their primary asian gateway for much of the US I wonder if it really could support 10x? A mix of 350 and 332/3 perhaps? I'm not sure though if they have any slack in the fleet to make that possible.
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DeSpringbokke
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Re: Delta/PEK

Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:38 am

There are two weekly slots left for PEK/PVG. The only airline that would consider using these slots is HAL if they decided to go from three times weekly on HNL-PEK to five times weekly. The return of United's three weekly GUM-PVG frequencies, there are now five weekly slots available. Since UAL is returning the slots, they aren't interested in using these slots and/or picking up the remaining twice weekly slots. Since AA received LAX-PEK, a route they needed far more than DL, AA is probably happy with what they have at the moment. (There is a rumour that AA is considering flying their own metal to CAN, although I only see this as being a rumour. If AA is serious about serving CAN with AA metal, it would be ORD-CAN with a 787-8 as CZ has LAX-CAN locked up and DFW-CAN is too small and too far for a 787-8.)

So what will become of the five weekly PEK/PVG slots? Either one of two things. (I'd be surprised if they just remain dormant for a more than a couple of years.) HAL will use these slots to add more weekly frequencies on HNL-PEK, potentially making it daily, and/or use up the slots to add one or two more weekly frequencies on HNL-PEK and start HNL-PVG either thrice or four times weekly. This expansion would be the long term plan for HAL's expansion in the PRC market. I suspect in the long run HAL would like to fly HNL-PEK/PVG on a daily basis but this could be well over a decade away. Second is Delta will use up these slots and apply for five times weekly LAX-PEK. I'm still surprised Delta went ahead and is using the NRT-PVG frequencies for ATL-PVG instead. The market is quite small and Delta's problems in the past were poor load factors on this route. I'd figure Delta would have an easier time with a daily LAX-PEK flight and a five times weekly ATL-PVG as, unlike LAX-PEK, ATL-PVG can not really be downgauged if loads are light. At least with LAX-PEK can be downgauged to an A330-200. However, I doubt Delta would have to do this. LAX-PEK is significantly larger than ATL-PVG. Think this will trash yields? Look at LAX-PVG. The US3 and MU fly the route with 787-9/A359/77Ws. Yes LAX-PVG is a bigger market than LAX-PEK, but its continuing to increase in size. I think ATL-PVG will likely end up going A350-900 in the long run as the difference in fuel burn can keep the flight going even if the loads are light. If Delta was able to get 787-9s in accordance with their schedule demands, ATL-PVG is the ideal route for the 787-9.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Delta/PEK

Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:58 am

DeSpringbokke wrote:
I think ATL-PVG will likely end up going A350-900 in the long run as the difference in fuel burn can keep the flight going even if the loads are light.

Maybe, but then again, what good does decreased fuel burn do, when you have to account for an extra $1million+ per month in acquisition costs; against a somewhat less efficient model that's already paid off?

Thus, I wouldn't be surprised if this flight doesn't go A359 for a long time, due to the increased number of premium seats to fill; and the opportunity cost of using those limited ships elsewhere.


DeSpringbokke wrote:
If Delta was able to get 787-9s in accordance with their schedule demands, ATL-PVG is the ideal route for the 787-9.

*sigh* If only.

I love the A350, and it's nice to see someone on this side with the A330NEO... but gotta say: not having 787s seems like such a missed opportunity for DL. :(
Last edited by LAX772LR on Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
adtall
Posts: 56
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Re: Delta/PEK

Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:02 am

So if HA has 3 weekly frequencies and there's now 5 weekly frequencies in the pool, then who has 6 weekly and on what route?
 
DeSpringbokke
Posts: 371
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Re: Delta/PEK

Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:15 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
DeSpringbokke wrote:
I think ATL-PVG will likely end up going A350-900 in the long run as the difference in fuel burn can keep the flight going even if the loads are light.

Maybe, but then again, what good does decreased fuel burn do, when you have to account for an extra $1million+ per month in acquisition costs; against a somewhat less efficient model that's already paid off?

Thus, I wouldn't be surprised if this flight doesn't go A359 for a long time, due to the increased number of premium seats to fill; and the opportunity cost of using those limited ships elsewhere.


DeSpringbokke wrote:
If Delta was able to get 787-9s in accordance with their schedule demands, ATL-PVG is the ideal route for the 787-9.

*sigh* If only.

I love the A350, and it's nice to see someone on this side with the A330NEO... but gotta say: not having 787s seems like such a missed opportunity for DL. :(


When ATL-PVG starts in July, it will be operated by a 77L with 37 in J. Should the route be changed to a A350-900, there would be only 32 in J. The new 77L configuration will have only 28 in J. The difference between the J/W configuration with the 77L and the A350 is the A350 has four more in J and both have the exact same in W. The A350 has a capacity of only ten more than the refitted 77L. I'd be interested to hear if anyone has much knowledge on the difference between the A350-900 and 77L fuel burn, especially for a long route like ATL-PVG whereas the capacity is just about the same.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Delta/PEK

Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:06 pm

ATLFlyer323 wrote:
sagechan wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
I don't believe 3x weekly would be attractive on what Delta must hope to be a business route.


I agree, not sure DL or AA has a real use for 3x week service. Though I suppose either might be interested in maybe going 10x on a route? If CZ were to jump to One World, I think there would be a slim chance AA could try 3x to CAN. What's DL's strongest market to PEK, maybe 10x a week from there?



Haha, well depending on which forum you're on DTW is obviously DL's best gateway for everything and needs to be expanded ASAP. ;) That being said I love connecting in DTW and use it to go to NGO a few times a year... and being their primary asian gateway for much of the US I wonder if it really could support 10x? A mix of 350 and 332/3 perhaps? I'm not sure though if they have any slack in the fleet to make that possible.
LAX-PEK needs to be daily, so this 3x slot is essentially useless for LAX-PEK right now. I'd say, do DTW-PVG or PEK 10x weekly. Reason being, SEA can't handle the extra international flights right now. It's useless for MSP or JFK at 3x weekly, and ATL isn't practical unless they use another 777 or 350. DTW is going to have the 350's for this route if they need to make it 10x, splitting it with 4x weekly 350 to CDG.
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Sightseer
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Re: Delta/PEK

Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:31 pm

If there are actually 5 weekly frequencies available, I think that may be enough for DL to consider making a go of LAX-PEK if they really want to. The question is, do they really want to? They blinked on the route last year when they moved NRT-PVG to ATL instead, but maybe they are really interested in the market. Or maybe they applied for LAX-PEK just to force AA's hand.
LAX772LR wrote:
DeSpringbokke wrote:
If Delta was able to get 787-9s in accordance with their schedule demands, ATL-PVG is the ideal route for the 787-9.

*sigh* If only.

I love the A350, and it's nice to see someone on this side with the A330NEO... but gotta say: not having 787s seems like such a missed opportunity for DL.

This. I think even just a dozen or so 787s could really go a long way for DL in Asia.
 
azjubilee
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Re: Delta/PEK

Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:59 pm

DeSpringbokke wrote:
So what will become of the five weekly PEK/PVG slots? Either one of two things. (I'd be surprised if they just remain dormant for a more than a couple of years.) HAL will use these slots to add more weekly frequencies on HNL-PEK, potentially making it daily, and/or use up the slots to add one or two more weekly frequencies on HNL-PEK and start HNL-PVG either thrice or four times weekly. This expansion would be the long term plan for HAL's expansion in the PRC market. I suspect in the long run HAL would like to fly HNL-PEK/PVG on a daily basis but this could be well over a decade away.


Agreed, however HA is not yet ready for more PEK frequencies, outside the Chinese New Year travel period. PEK has proven very seasonal for HA, but is in it for the long term. I'd guess that when any new slots are made available to US carriers, HA will have PVG in its sights. 3/wk would dovetail perfectly with PEK and be the ideal way to start the new route and to continue building their China strategy.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5831
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta/PEK

Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:20 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I'd say, do DTW-PVG or PEK 10x weekly. Reason being, SEA can't handle the extra international flights right now. It's useless for MSP or JFK at 3x weekly, and ATL isn't practical unless they use another 777 or 350. DTW is going to have the 350's for this route if they need to make it 10x, splitting it with 4x weekly 350 to CDG.


I see all of your points but wonder if 10x DTW-PVG or PEK would really be surplus capacity and just hollow out SEA-Asia even more. The current DTW-PEK/PVG flights are mid-day and allow connections from everywhere that's relevant to demand for xxx-DTW-PEK/PVG.

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