smflyer
Posts: 147
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 4:44 pm

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:29 am

In actual real news about SMF, looks like the airport will be adding lounges and some new concessions!

https://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/ ... rport.html
 
amadorE175
Posts: 194
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:25 pm

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:54 am

smflyer wrote:
Just came across this on a thread in Reddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Sacramento/com ... _to_china/

Looks like someone had edited the SMF wiki page to show that China Southern is to start service to Guangzhou but was then later removed. According to the threat the Guangzhou airport wiki had also been edited to show service to SMF but was then later removed. Though I highly doubt this was a legit entry into wiki, but what is the actual probable chance that SMF could see service to Asia anytime soon? I would expect some sort of LCC carrier to have service to Europe before Asia, but there is a sizable Asian population in the Sacramento region so who knows.


Wow, interesting. Doesn't seem like a real thing. I could have sworn that the Tier 1 (or Zone 1? I forget the actual terminology) frequencies on the Chinese side were all accounted for so China Southern would have to move one of their other US flights. Without any real data to make this evaluation, I feel like the chance of service to East/Southeast Asia is fairly small. Not betting on it but it'd be wild if, with the local Russia diaspora, Aeroflot takes a dip.

Anyone know which terminal CP will operate from? I don't think anyone is using B11 at all so perhaps there.
 
Wingtips56
Posts: 1162
Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2010 1:26 am

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:50 am

smflyer wrote:
Just came across this on a thread in Reddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Sacramento/com ... _to_china/

Looks like someone had edited the SMF wiki page to show that China Southern is to start service to Guangzhou but was then later removed. According to the threat the Guangzhou airport wiki had also been edited to show service to SMF but was then later removed. Though I highly doubt this was a legit entry into wiki, but what is the actual probable chance that SMF could see service to Asia anytime soon? I would expect some sort of LCC carrier to have service to Europe before Asia, but there is a sizable Asian population in the Sacramento region so who knows.

The population in the Sacramento area is widely pan-Asian. Chinese (even going back to the 1860's enslaved railroad workers), Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese (large community), Hmong, Cambodian, Lao, and other SE. Asia. While SMF might be able to manage flight to somewhere in Asia, it would have to be a point with some strong business and tourism ties (Japanese and Chinese companies in the area, plus an infant China-UC Davis JV project), with the other VFR traffic dependent on a strong connecting point without heavy visa restrictions. The bleed-off to all the direct flights from SFO will continue to be a disadvantage to SMF even getting one flight.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 180 airports, 90 airlines, 75 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,117,006 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
dolphinflyer
Posts: 280
Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 9:57 pm

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:14 pm

November traffic figures are in, and SMF handled 1,067,446 passengers for the month, marking a 9.4% passenger increase on a seat capacity increase of 9.2%. YTD passenger totals through November are 11,015,565, which means that we'll need 984,435 passengers during December 2018 to reach our goal of 12 million passengers for 2018! We need only a 4.4% yoy traffic increase versus December 2017's figures, but seat capacity is up 8.6% for the month yoy, so we'll definitely sail past the 12 million passenger mark for 2018. Very exciting!
 
crescent
Posts: 106
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:09 am

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:32 pm

Unless F9 or NK show up with a focus city, I would look for this growth to decline sharply in 2019. This isn't an SMF-specific comment, but airlines all had declining operating margins in 2018 and are not going to push capacity as aggressively from here on.
 
smflyer
Posts: 147
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 4:44 pm

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:09 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
crescent wrote:
Unless F9 or NK show up with a focus city, I would look for this growth to decline sharply in 2019. This isn't an SMF-specific comment, but airlines all had declining operating margins in 2018 and are not going to push capacity as aggressively from here on.


While true that there is declining margins nationwide, airlines don't typically just cut out growth or cut capacity across the board. Airlines become more focused on areas that they can actually continue to grow. SMF and several other west coast airports have seen strong demand even with the rising fuel prices earlier this year. In SMF's case, demand is continuously outpacing seat capacity growth which is a strong indicator to airlines that they need to add capacity. If one airline sits back, another will swoop in take it. Historically this is what WN has done at SMF and is the reason why they now have such a strong presence here. With the addition of the Kona flights, HA adding Maui, and WN to soon start Hawaii service, and DL announcing DTW it already looks like 2019 is going to be another big growth year. And if the OAG forums tell anything, several routes are being up gauged to larger aircraft, increased frequencies, and earlier start dates to seasonal flight, 2019 should be on par with the growth we've seen in 2018
 
smflyer
Posts: 147
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 4:44 pm

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:46 pm

dolphinflyer wrote:
November traffic figures are in, and SMF handled 1,067,446 passengers for the month, marking a 9.4% passenger increase on a seat capacity increase of 9.2%. YTD passenger totals through November are 11,015,565, which means that we'll need 984,435 passengers during December 2018 to reach our goal of 12 million passengers for 2018! We need only a 4.4% yoy traffic increase versus December 2017's figures, but seat capacity is up 8.6% for the month yoy, so we'll definitely sail past the 12 million passenger mark for 2018. Very exciting!


Thanks for the update! Flying out of SMF twice recently from terminal A, is runway 34R/16L closed for some reason? Both times we taxied out to the 34L/16R runways for departure and didn't notice any aircraft utilizing the 34L/16L runways.

Also, at what amount of aircraft/passenger traffic to the airport would they start considering expanding either Terminal A/B to add new gates?
 
dolphinflyer
Posts: 280
Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 9:57 pm

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:56 pm

smflyer wrote:
dolphinflyer wrote:
November traffic figures are in, and SMF handled 1,067,446 passengers for the month, marking a 9.4% passenger increase on a seat capacity increase of 9.2%. YTD passenger totals through November are 11,015,565, which means that we'll need 984,435 passengers during December 2018 to reach our goal of 12 million passengers for 2018! We need only a 4.4% yoy traffic increase versus December 2017's figures, but seat capacity is up 8.6% for the month yoy, so we'll definitely sail past the 12 million passenger mark for 2018. Very exciting!


Thanks for the update! Flying out of SMF twice recently from terminal A, is runway 34R/16L closed for some reason? Both times we taxied out to the 34L/16R runways for departure and didn't notice any aircraft utilizing the 34L/16L runways.

Also, at what amount of aircraft/passenger traffic to the airport would they start considering expanding either Terminal A/B to add new gates?


Taxiway repair work next to 34L/16R.

The planning department is looking at various gate expansion scenarios.
 
dolphinflyer
Posts: 280
Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 9:57 pm

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Dec 14, 2018 6:22 pm

smflyer wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
crescent wrote:
Unless F9 or NK show up with a focus city, I would look for this growth to decline sharply in 2019. This isn't an SMF-specific comment, but airlines all had declining operating margins in 2018 and are not going to push capacity as aggressively from here on.


While true that there is declining margins nationwide, airlines don't typically just cut out growth or cut capacity across the board. Airlines become more focused on areas that they can actually continue to grow. SMF and several other west coast airports have seen strong demand even with the rising fuel prices earlier this year. In SMF's case, demand is continuously outpacing seat capacity growth which is a strong indicator to airlines that they need to add capacity. If one airline sits back, another will swoop in take it. Historically this is what WN has done at SMF and is the reason why they now have such a strong presence here. With the addition of the Kona flights, HA adding Maui, and WN to soon start Hawaii service, and DL announcing DTW it already looks like 2019 is going to be another big growth year. And if the OAG forums tell anything, several routes are being up gauged to larger aircraft, increased frequencies, and earlier start dates to seasonal flight, 2019 should be on par with the growth we've seen in 2018


I did a datapull of published schedules for the first six months of 2019 versus the same period in 2018, and seat capacity at SMF will be up 9.4% yoy, so SMF is in good shape for continued growth at least through the first half of 2019, but if the economy begins to cool during the second half of 2019, then yoy capacity increases will likely decline. We won't see the 10% growth, but maybe scaled back to 6-8% growth yoy.
 
williaminsd
Topic Author
Posts: 149
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sun Dec 16, 2018 2:57 am

dolphinflyer wrote:
smflyer wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
crescent wrote:
Unless F9 or NK show up with a focus city, I would look for this growth to decline sharply in 2019. This isn't an SMF-specific comment, but airlines all had declining operating margins in 2018 and are not going to push capacity as aggressively from here on.


While true that there is declining margins nationwide, airlines don't typically just cut out growth or cut capacity across the board. Airlines become more focused on areas that they can actually continue to grow. SMF and several other west coast airports have seen strong demand even with the rising fuel prices earlier this year. In SMF's case, demand is continuously outpacing seat capacity growth which is a strong indicator to airlines that they need to add capacity. If one airline sits back, another will swoop in take it. Historically this is what WN has done at SMF and is the reason why they now have such a strong presence here. With the addition of the Kona flights, HA adding Maui, and WN to soon start Hawaii service, and DL announcing DTW it already looks like 2019 is going to be another big growth year. And if the OAG forums tell anything, several routes are being up gauged to larger aircraft, increased frequencies, and earlier start dates to seasonal flight, 2019 should be on par with the growth we've seen in 2018


I did a datapull of published schedules for the first six months of 2019 versus the same period in 2018, and seat capacity at SMF will be up 9.4% yoy, so SMF is in good shape for continued growth at least through the first half of 2019, but if the economy begins to cool during the second half of 2019, then yoy capacity increases will likely decline. We won't see the 10% growth, but maybe scaled back to 6-8% growth yoy.


This is what I see... 6% plus growth at SMF in 2019. Let's face it, 2018, the best year in SMF history, is unlikely to be repeated anytime soon. When I started this thread early this year, 12mm seemed almost impossible, but here you are: wow. But even if we give it only 5% yoy, that's an astounding 12,600,000 pax in 2019. High end of that scale, you're flirting with 13mm.

I also see a morning flight to NYC, additional service to Florida, Mexico and Canada, expansion by AS and WN in part to feed Hawaii, but also more intra-California that is strictly O&D, and a steady increase in DL presence.

And, in 2020, as the airport closes in on 15 million passengers served, that Holy Grail, BA to LHR. No matter where I am, I'm going to make a point of being on that flight.

In the meantime, going to enjoy watching every new announcement. Everything depends on the economy obviously. And going to lose some of course, but overall, solid things ahead for SMF, with an occasional dash of spectacular sure to come...
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4365
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sun Dec 16, 2018 3:22 am

I agree current trends SMF is on a course for growth and more service.

LA and SFO keep getting more expensive , unless that stops Sacramento by default is going to keep growing and getting younger people to relocate. It's hipster amazing brew scene is no accident either. It's a city you can actually afford to live , get a good job, but stay in California and close.
 
ericm2031
Posts: 1052
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:46 am

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sun Dec 16, 2018 3:50 am

I'd expect WN to extend HOU to daily and probably add BNA in 2019
 
flyfresno
Posts: 803
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:17 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
I agree current trends SMF is on a course for growth and more service.

LA and SFO keep getting more expensive , unless that stops Sacramento by default is going to keep growing and getting younger people to relocate. It's hipster amazing brew scene is no accident either. It's a city you can actually afford to live , get a good job, but stay in California and close.


This is off topic, but: maybe it used to be that way, and maybe the suburbs still are, but it’s quickly becoming another iteration of the Bay Area. Most people I know there who used to afford it no problem now can’t afford to buy a house or even rent (sans roommates) in desirable areas like Midtown, Land Park, or East Sac, and even some parts of town that used to be cheap (Tahoe Park, for example) are now barely within the affordability range for many people. A friend who’s a real estate agent says 75% of the people he shows homes to in those areas are from the Bay. While cheaper than SF or LA, it’s quickly becoming a bastion of telecommuters from other parts of the state and unaffordable for people who have lived there for decades.
 
williaminsd
Topic Author
Posts: 149
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:01 pm

Of note to Valley flyers, United will start service from Stockton to LAX in August of 2019...

Looks like schedule is as follows:

UA 5120 - Lv SCK 7:41a - Ar LAX 9:10a
UA 5032 - Lv SCK 3:00p - Ar LAX 4:29p

UA 5056 - Lv LAX 1:00p - Ar SCK 2:22p
UA 5097 - Lv LAX 5:10p - Ar SCK 6:32p

http://flystockton.com/wp-content/uploa ... visory.pdf
 
smflyer
Posts: 147
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 4:44 pm

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Sun Dec 16, 2018 11:04 pm

williaminsd wrote:
dolphinflyer wrote:
smflyer wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]

While true that there is declining margins nationwide, airlines don't typically just cut out growth or cut capacity across the board. Airlines become more focused on areas that they can actually continue to grow. SMF and several other west coast airports have seen strong demand even with the rising fuel prices earlier this year. In SMF's case, demand is continuously outpacing seat capacity growth which is a strong indicator to airlines that they need to add capacity. If one airline sits back, another will swoop in take it. Historically this is what WN has done at SMF and is the reason why they now have such a strong presence here. With the addition of the Kona flights, HA adding Maui, and WN to soon start Hawaii service, and DL announcing DTW it already looks like 2019 is going to be another big growth year. And if the OAG forums tell anything, several routes are being up gauged to larger aircraft, increased frequencies, and earlier start dates to seasonal flight, 2019 should be on par with the growth we've seen in 2018


I did a datapull of published schedules for the first six months of 2019 versus the same period in 2018, and seat capacity at SMF will be up 9.4% yoy, so SMF is in good shape for continued growth at least through the first half of 2019, but if the economy begins to cool during the second half of 2019, then yoy capacity increases will likely decline. We won't see the 10% growth, but maybe scaled back to 6-8% growth yoy.


This is what I see... 6% plus growth at SMF in 2019. Let's face it, 2018, the best year in SMF history, is unlikely to be repeated anytime soon. When I started this thread early this year, 12mm seemed almost impossible, but here you are: wow. But even if we give it only 5% yoy, that's an astounding 12,600,000 pax in 2019. High end of that scale, you're flirting with 13mm.

I also see a morning flight to NYC, additional service to Florida, Mexico and Canada, expansion by AS and WN in part to feed Hawaii, but also more intra-California that is strictly O&D, and a steady increase in DL presence.

And, in 2020, as the airport closes in on 15 million passengers served, that Holy Grail, BA to LHR. No matter where I am, I'm going to make a point of being on that flight.

In the meantime, going to enjoy watching every new announcement. Everything depends on the economy obviously. And going to lose some of course, but overall, solid things ahead for SMF, with an occasional dash of spectacular sure to come...


I understand that AS and WN can use SMF for feed for the Hawaii operations, but how extensive do you think this will be? From what I understand, the per passenger fees at SMF are significantly higher than the other WN stations in CA which would make the airport less attractive to airlines to make connections here. Unless the airport has lower fees for passengers connecting through, I don't really see any significant traffic connecting to Hawaii from SMF. Assuming WN does have a mid-morning to noon time departure to Hawaii, the only viable connecting traffic can only be from SEA, PDX, and DEN. I guess if the airport really wanted to attract WN/AS to have more connecting passengers they could decrease fees for connecting itineraries and hope to recover some of that lost revenue from concession sales.
 
dolphinflyer
Posts: 280
Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 9:57 pm

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:53 am

smflyer wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
dolphinflyer wrote:

I did a datapull of published schedules for the first six months of 2019 versus the same period in 2018, and seat capacity at SMF will be up 9.4% yoy, so SMF is in good shape for continued growth at least through the first half of 2019, but if the economy begins to cool during the second half of 2019, then yoy capacity increases will likely decline. We won't see the 10% growth, but maybe scaled back to 6-8% growth yoy.


This is what I see... 6% plus growth at SMF in 2019. Let's face it, 2018, the best year in SMF history, is unlikely to be repeated anytime soon. When I started this thread early this year, 12mm seemed almost impossible, but here you are: wow. But even if we give it only 5% yoy, that's an astounding 12,600,000 pax in 2019. High end of that scale, you're flirting with 13mm.

I also see a morning flight to NYC, additional service to Florida, Mexico and Canada, expansion by AS and WN in part to feed Hawaii, but also more intra-California that is strictly O&D, and a steady increase in DL presence.

And, in 2020, as the airport closes in on 15 million passengers served, that Holy Grail, BA to LHR. No matter where I am, I'm going to make a point of being on that flight.

In the meantime, going to enjoy watching every new announcement. Everything depends on the economy obviously. And going to lose some of course, but overall, solid things ahead for SMF, with an occasional dash of spectacular sure to come...


I understand that AS and WN can use SMF for feed for the Hawaii operations, but how extensive do you think this will be? From what I understand, the per passenger fees at SMF are significantly higher than the other WN stations in CA which would make the airport less attractive to airlines to make connections here. Unless the airport has lower fees for passengers connecting through, I don't really see any significant traffic connecting to Hawaii from SMF. Assuming WN does have a mid-morning to noon time departure to Hawaii, the only viable connecting traffic can only be from SEA, PDX, and DEN. I guess if the airport really wanted to attract WN/AS to have more connecting passengers they could decrease fees for connecting itineraries and hope to recover some of that lost revenue from concession sales.


No longer true. CPE (Cost per Enplaned Passenger) is now in the $11-12 range, down from a high near $18 a few years ago. Airlines are taking notice of that significant reduction. SMF is now very competitive as relates to CPE vs. other California airports.
 
williaminsd
Topic Author
Posts: 149
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:31 pm

smflyer wrote:
williaminsd wrote:
dolphinflyer wrote:

I did a datapull of published schedules for the first six months of 2019 versus the same period in 2018, and seat capacity at SMF will be up 9.4% yoy, so SMF is in good shape for continued growth at least through the first half of 2019, but if the economy begins to cool during the second half of 2019, then yoy capacity increases will likely decline. We won't see the 10% growth, but maybe scaled back to 6-8% growth yoy.


This is what I see... 6% plus growth at SMF in 2019. Let's face it, 2018, the best year in SMF history, is unlikely to be repeated anytime soon. When I started this thread early this year, 12mm seemed almost impossible, but here you are: wow. But even if we give it only 5% yoy, that's an astounding 12,600,000 pax in 2019. High end of that scale, you're flirting with 13mm.

I also see a morning flight to NYC, additional service to Florida, Mexico and Canada, expansion by AS and WN in part to feed Hawaii, but also more intra-California that is strictly O&D, and a steady increase in DL presence.

And, in 2020, as the airport closes in on 15 million passengers served, that Holy Grail, BA to LHR. No matter where I am, I'm going to make a point of being on that flight.

In the meantime, going to enjoy watching every new announcement. Everything depends on the economy obviously. And going to lose some of course, but overall, solid things ahead for SMF, with an occasional dash of spectacular sure to come...


I understand that AS and WN can use SMF for feed for the Hawaii operations, but how extensive do you think this will be? From what I understand, the per passenger fees at SMF are significantly higher than the other WN stations in CA which would make the airport less attractive to airlines to make connections here. Unless the airport has lower fees for passengers connecting through, I don't really see any significant traffic connecting to Hawaii from SMF. Assuming WN does have a mid-morning to noon time departure to Hawaii, the only viable connecting traffic can only be from SEA, PDX, and DEN. I guess if the airport really wanted to attract WN/AS to have more connecting passengers they could decrease fees for connecting itineraries and hope to recover some of that lost revenue from concession sales.


Did a quick check of CPEs for various California airports. Please note that while much of this data is from 2017, some is from 2016, and that I give a $1 range due to some conflicting data at the margins. I understand that pennies can make a huge difference when you're talking about hundreds of thousands/millions of passengers.

Again, just a quick glance and the quality/accuracy of the figures presented reflect the surface-level inquiry, but here's what I found...

FAT - $8-$9
LAX - $15-$16 (going to $26 by 2024)
LGB - $10-$11
OAK - $11-$12
ONT - $10-$11
SAN - $10-$11
SBA - $13-$14
SFO - $16-$17
SJC - $10-$11 (Target CPE is $12.)
SMF - $11-$12
SNA - $10-$11

SMF is certainly competitive. Is it close enough to act as a possible feeder for Hawaii flights for AS/WN?
 
Wingtips56
Posts: 1162
Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2010 1:26 am

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:47 am

Nothing really needs to change for WN to feed Hawai'i over SMF, other than loading flight schedules, and possibly re-timing some if they want to strengthen a feed. There are plenty of flights to/from the East , North and South that could feed over any of the West Coast-Hawai'i gateways which are out of range for a WN Hawai'ian non-stop. And they could simply extend flights to sell them as throughs, such as STL-SMF-HNL.
But if you can fill the flights on O/D anyway, then connecting/through traffic isn't a big concern.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 180 airports, 90 airlines, 75 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,117,006 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
williaminsd
Topic Author
Posts: 149
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Dec 28, 2018 6:17 am

SMF celebrates its 12 millionth passenger. 2018 was quite a year... https://www.sacbee.com/entertainment/li ... 45950.html
 
williaminsd
Topic Author
Posts: 149
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Re: SMF Roaring Out of the Gate in 2018

Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:20 pm

Update on the new terminal/concourse amenities, including private lounges, coming to SMF in 2019... https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/trans ... 32705.html

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